Steve McIntyre published an update tonight showing the last 200 years of the Yamal tree ring data versus the archived CRU tree ring data used to make the famous hockey stick. For those just joining us, see the story here.
First here’s the before an after at millennial scale.
Steve McIntyre writes:
The next graphic compares the RCS chronologies from the two slightly different data sets: red – the RCS chronology calculated from the CRU archive (with the 12 picked cores); black – the RCS chronology calculated using the Schweingruber Yamal sample of living trees instead of the 12 picked trees used in the CRU archive. The difference is breathtaking.
Figure 2. A comparison of Yamal RCS chronologies. red – as archived with 12 picked cores; black – including Schweingruber’s Khadyta River, Yamal (russ035w) archive and excluding 12 picked cores. Both smoothed with 21-year gaussian smooth. y-axis is in dimensionless chronology units centered on 1 (as are subsequent graphs (but represent age-adjusted ring width).
Now lets have a look at the data for the last 200 years where that hockey stick lives (and dies):
Here is a comparison of the Briffa chronology of the spaghetti graphs (red) versus the “SChweingruber” variation i.e. using russ035w instead of 12 recent of 252 CRU cores, leaving 240 unchanged. (The red curve here is the archived CRU chronology, which varies slightly from my emulation of the RCS chronology.)
Steven Mosher
“Seriously, Everybody should be aware that Steve’s work doesn’t break the hockey stick. It’s in the statistical penalty box. Simply, you can’t say that the MWP was warmer or colder than the present. The upshot os Steve’s work is this: we don’t know.”
Well, hang on there. If the hockey stick and all its associated tomfoolery is broken, then we revert to the state of knowledge before the abominable stickmann came along, as represented by the graph in the IPCC 1 report, showing a strong MWP. This graph represented the consensus until the early 90s, based on a whole load of other evidence. In the absence of Mann’s stick and all its little sticklets, I would tend to believe that evidence.
Jonathan
September 29, 2009 4:36 am
Ken Hall, the big picture is that dendroclimatology is bunk. This has the consequence that paleoclimate reconstructions of the past 2000 years are more or less bunk. The borehole data is good enough to confirm the little ice age, but we can say little or nothing about temperatures before 1600. Hence claims of unprecedented temperatures over the last two millennia are bunk. How much credence you put in historical records of the medieval warm period is a matter of taste.
As usual Steve McIntyre is being extremely cautious in his own interpretations, but that’s the obvious interpretation.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that the whole of AGW is bunk. That’s a longer and more complex argument. Personally I’m a lukewarmer, but opinions vary.
Stephen Skinner
September 29, 2009 4:37 am
steven mosher (00:45:06) :
For we engineers these are just standard practice.
This must surely be the case for all practical based professions. Taking it a stage further; I wonder how far all this would have got if this was a murder trial. The case would surely have been thrown out because of tampered evidence, lack of evidence, withholding of evidence, inadmissible evidence and large amounts of conjecture and ‘leading the witness’.
Skeptic Tank
September 29, 2009 4:42 am
kim (23:58:28) :
…
I propose a Museum to Human Folly and an expedition to find those ten trees and exhibit them in the main hall.
Cut them up for firewood and ship them to Al Gore’s mansion with a sentiment that reads “You were wrong. Celebrate and have a bonfire.”
The CA story has made it into the mainstream media via James Delingpole’s Daily Telegraph blog.
“How the global warming industry is based on one MASSIVE lie” http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100011716/how-the-global-warming-industry-is-based-on-one-massive-lie/
Hopefully this will now be picked up by a few more sceptical mainstream hacks – but don’t hold your breath for the BBC.
I’ve cross posted the Telegraph link to Monbiot’s Grauniad CIF today – which has survived for around half an hour and counting.
Frank Lansner
September 29, 2009 4:59 am
José Antonio (03:02:18) :
Is broken the record of antartic sea ice?
The website from University of Bremen shows that record from September 2007 is broken: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
José, when i tried, the link was down, I also tried from their website: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/iuppage/psa/2001/amsrop.html
to press “AMSR-sea ice charts” but it is taken down / “error”….
So, just when Antarctic break yet a max record, the chart is down?
Too many visitors? Or?
mark twain
September 29, 2009 5:01 am
Mick (02:26:05) :
So, how many schoolbooks need to be replaced?
With recycled paper of course!!
in meteorologie, climatologie and geographie i dont know any school book, whichs shows graphes of m. mann or like that. von storch called the graph “nosnsens”
every schoolar literature shows the mwp and the lia and i hope, that will never change.
Frank K.
September 29, 2009 5:26 am
steven mosher (00:45:06) :
“It’s like this. They will now go out into the field and do 100 cores. They will examine those cores and only supply the data that confirms their hypothesis. When Steve McIntyre did his coring he followed the right proceedure. Take the cores, archive them all. Analysis is separate from proper data collection and archiving. You find a related difficulty in Kaufman 09, where the sediment series ( varves) are transformed and manipulated before they are archived. Always Always the raw data needs to be archived.”
To me, the most disturbing aspect of this whole incident is the fact that it took *** years *** to finally pry the data away from Briffa et al. (data which should have been archived in a timely manner and available to all).
Unfortunately, there will be no consequences for these researchers; they will continue to publish whatever they want (thanks to their buddies on the review panels for the major climate science journals), and their taxpayer-funded climate “science” projects will still keep flowing in…
There’s been speculation in the latest threads that media such as the Australian Broadcasting Corporation might report Steve McIntyre’s exposure of the hockey stick farce. Fat chance.
Instead, the pinnacle of Australian television current affairs, the ABC’s 7.30 Report, tonight interviewed IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri re the latest HADLEY scare campaign.
Go to http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
It’s sadly hilarious, including hearing that “the number of skeptics is going down very rapidly all over the world” and people like us should “think objectively”.
The interview wraps up with a postscript passing on Pachauri’s advice that meat-eaters can all cut carbon output and save the world by eating one less meat meal per week.
UK Sceptic
September 29, 2009 5:50 am
The Met Office predictions are now synonymous with epic failure. They couldn’t predict sunrise and sunset with any great accuracy, let alone weather. As for global warming, I’ve just resturned from walking my dog and I can tell you that warm the north western UK weather ain’t!
Autumn arrived a little early this year and is now in full swing. The weather’s cold, damp and miserable. I haven’t seen the sun for days because of the dreary grey overcast. Right now I could use a little global warming. Maybe I’ll print off a few of those nice graphs and set them ablaze…
CheshireRed
September 29, 2009 5:57 am
At what point in proceedings does evidence migrate from being merely flawed to become misleading, and at what further point does any such misleading evidence drift into deliberate untruths, and from there who can hold the person(s) responsible as being either negligent or legally accountable?
$Billions have been spent / invested / squandered on the strength of the Hockey Stick. I remember the BBC’s ‘Climate Wars’ from a couple of years back, where a huge great billboard was driven throughout central London for TV.
The image? Why, the now hopelessly discredited (possibly worse than ‘discredited’) Hockey Stick.
Someone should be held accountable.
Mark
September 29, 2009 6:05 am
I’m confused on a couple of points of those trees…
1) Are they all from the same area in Russia?
1a) If they are all from the same area, how can one area be used to determine the entire earth’s temperature?
2) What were the tree rings of these trees used for, Mann’s 1st hockey stick, his 2nd stick, or some other stick?
Robinson
September 29, 2009 6:12 am
the stick is dead, long live the stick
Is it even possible to turn the political tanker around? I very much doubt it.
George S.
September 29, 2009 6:16 am
Oh, woe is me. I am truly uplifted by Steve’s discovery.
However, I’m pessimistic that anyone will hear this. This monumental hoax is debunked and could save the world trillions of dollars and countless lives and resources….but all I expect to hear is the continued roar of chirping crickets. Statists have their fingers in their ears when it comes to discussion. They are only interested in dictation!
The stick is dead, long live the stick!
My optimistic half allows some glimmer of trust that the word will spread, that the truth will prevail. For the sake of my son and his future children…I hope that all this eco-foolishness is put to rest. Man(n)-caused cooling, warming, change…what utter hubris! [I love the “it’s cooling as a side effect of AGW”!]
I’ll allow that we should be responsible stewards of the bountiful Earth. Use it wisely rather than disuse it, misuse it, or abuse it. How clever of us to convert dead matter into useable energy! Hey…we can also do it with rocks, wind, sunshine, rushing water, tides, waves, and a long list of other resources.
Long live prosperous, productive, and FREE human beings!
kim
September 29, 2009 6:26 am
OK, kids; great Halloween costume idea. A zombie hockey stick.
The lane is very dirty
And my shoes are very thin.
I’ve got a little pocket
To put a penny in.
If you haven’t got a penny,
A ha’penny will do.
If you haven’t got a ha’penny,
May God Bless You.
==================
Mr Lynn
September 29, 2009 6:27 am
My wife was complaining this morning about two NPR gabfests she heard in the car, one on ‘climate change’ and Copenhagen, the other on windmills in the desert. In both the participants, including the hosts, all assumed that Global Warming (aka ‘climate change’) is an established fact, a problem that must be dealt with. At no point did anyone even raise the possibility that there might be a contrary view, or that the science was not entirely settled, that more CO2 might be beneficial, or that the evidence for recent ‘global warming’ might be shaky.
Of course that was NPR, but the same can be said for all of the media, aside from conservative talk radio and skeptical sites in the blogosphere, like this one. Nothing that is transpiring here or over on CA is even beginning to penetrate the consciousness of the political and media elites, not to mention the general public.
What can be done to penetrate this wall of silence, this stone foundation of ‘accepted fact’? Well, there’s one thing that will get the media’s attention:
Scandal.
I know that Anthony and most scientists are very reluctant to use the ‘F’ word, and understandably so. But given that ‘climate change’ is the banner for a massive political movement, which creates a huge impediment to anyone questioning the underlying science, maybe the only way to get crack the foundation is to hit it with the ‘F’ jackhammer.
The elite media won’t listen to a bunch of ragtag ‘skeptics’ and ‘deniers’ (as they are routinely disparaged and dismissed), but they will start paying attention if a few prominent scientists start charging ‘F____’. They will pay even more attention if a national society (like the AAAS) is forced to begin an investigation.
If scientists are caught cherry-picking only the data that supports (and dramatizes!) their hypotheses, and refusing to release all of the data for other other scientists to check, then that is prima facie evidence of misconduct. Scientific misconduct is a very serious charge. It is time for members of the relevant societies to start demanding public investigations.
/Mr Lynn
David Kitchen
September 29, 2009 6:29 am
Maybe we are not seeing the wood for the trees 🙂 If you read this new data as indicating that the temperature actually decreased over this period, then you are stuck trying to reconcile that theory with observations from satellite and other proxy data that clearly indicates a period of rapid warming towards the end of the last century. Surely the goal here is to discover what is happening, not to play “gotcha” on science that is already getting old… and there is a good chance that it will turn out to be close to accurate.. however flawed in conception. Lets play “do some original research and publish it” instead.
kim
September 29, 2009 6:32 am
Chris 5:44:13
Meatless Easter Season?
No eating bunnies, anyway.
===============
GGM
September 29, 2009 6:33 am
This should now be treated as a criminal action.
And considering the consequences to our economy, our jobs, our childrens education, then I think we should consider this an act of deliberate and planned Treason.
It’s a pitty that there are no politicians brave enough to stand up and call these people Traitors and criminals who should face the full force of the law.
kim
September 29, 2009 6:34 am
You know, I beg that it ends in ridicule, not anger.
Baksheesh.
======
Dave D
September 29, 2009 6:40 am
I’ve sent links to the original story to both of my Senators in Tennessee and to Senator Inhofe, who is the only skeptic voice in the Senate and on the Ernergy Committee. I advocate many of you do the same. It’s great if a bunch of us “interested people” know this stuff, but it’s a political issue, it needs politicains to get the story out.
I may be a bit niave, but some of them really will do the right thing – even if only to grab headlines… 😉
mark twain
September 29, 2009 6:49 am
why all this complicate and diffus works with tree rings?
i think we have some other, very good methods to find out, how warm the mwp on the northern hemisphere had been. in the greater alpine region (europe) eg. we know, that the tree limit in the mountains was about 2300m, today it is around 1900 to 2300m. we have glaciers proxis, which show a less glaciation between 1000 and 1400 in the alps. we have good proxis from central england (ipcc 1996 shown) and some more (indirect) proxis from china, usa, skandinavia and greenland. so in central europa it is very clear, that it was warmen than today, because trees don`t grow in levels over 2200m if it is not warm enougt there.
what about tree limit levels studies in moutains of skandinavia, russland, usa, china, japan etc.? a very easy and seriosly method to show past temperatures!?
Interesting that one of Mann’s initial “rebutes” of his hockey stick were words to the effect of “I never merged tree-ring data with thermometer data, and I never said that tree-ring data (temperature proxies from 1700 to 2000 years ago) should be merged with recent thermometer records.”… http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter6.pdf
But the IPCC’s AR4 (though not plotting his hockey stick directly – which did exactly that merging – repeats over and over again that tree-ring data IS one of their primary sources of temperature information over the past 2000 years. Earlier IPCC reports were at least honest enough to plot Mann’s data, not just use it in their words.
And, also in that AR4 report, the radiative “climate forcing” of CO2, Methane, NO2 and total greenhouse gasses are presented in THEIR full hockey stick glory.
—-
A second question arises: Since Mann’s tree ring data IS actually being merged with historical thermometer data, what temperature data did Mann (and Briffa!) actually use for recent temperatures?
Actual surface temperature warming since 1890 is between 1/2 of one degree and 7/10 of one degree – if UHI is removed from the record. Since 1950, surface temperature warming is less than 3/10 of one degree.
If the tree ring data is being (has been ??) “calibrated against a bad thermometer” because corrected global temperatures were used, (not actual temperatures of the actual trees – which are ALSO said to vary significantly from the atmospheric temperatures), were the estimated past temperature proxies off? How much were they “off” – if they are wrongly compared to recent temperatures that are themselves incorrect? If they were off, in what direction were they wrongly “corrected” when they were merged into the historical record?
I believe that what matters for the future is having a healthy “citizens’ science” that can counterbalance the temptations to corrupt that can open up as soon as one gets paid. I believe in the creative tension between “amateur” and “professional”, and that is truly the best of British. Even the warmist hype has arisen in part in a naive belief that it is individuals standing up to corrupt Big Oil and so forth – though here we know that that time has long since passed, if it ever existed.
Now that Ellie from Belfast has thoroughly opened my eyes to the level of degradation in the NASA GISS records (just the UK ones at that) I’m fired up and hoping to write up something that can kick-start another interactive project like Surface Stations, to rescue and sustain the real records. I’ve found evidence that pretty well every single GISS UK record that supposedly started in 1880 actually started earlier, and/or continues later than GISS shows, often is still extant. GISS UK looks so awful that I want to keep checking that I’ve really got my basic facts right about this, it seems too awful to be true.
I want to contact record-keepers right across the country. I want to develop a project that is positive and creative and interactive for people quite independently of the climate science issues, to reclaim the true original independent spirit of Science that of itself would have protected the data and prevented the current problems ever arising. The cooperation between amateurs and professionals that still exists in Astronomy and is close to the surface in Meteorology.
Steven Mosher
“Seriously, Everybody should be aware that Steve’s work doesn’t break the hockey stick. It’s in the statistical penalty box. Simply, you can’t say that the MWP was warmer or colder than the present. The upshot os Steve’s work is this: we don’t know.”
Well, hang on there. If the hockey stick and all its associated tomfoolery is broken, then we revert to the state of knowledge before the abominable stickmann came along, as represented by the graph in the IPCC 1 report, showing a strong MWP. This graph represented the consensus until the early 90s, based on a whole load of other evidence. In the absence of Mann’s stick and all its little sticklets, I would tend to believe that evidence.
Ken Hall, the big picture is that dendroclimatology is bunk. This has the consequence that paleoclimate reconstructions of the past 2000 years are more or less bunk. The borehole data is good enough to confirm the little ice age, but we can say little or nothing about temperatures before 1600. Hence claims of unprecedented temperatures over the last two millennia are bunk. How much credence you put in historical records of the medieval warm period is a matter of taste.
As usual Steve McIntyre is being extremely cautious in his own interpretations, but that’s the obvious interpretation.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that the whole of AGW is bunk. That’s a longer and more complex argument. Personally I’m a lukewarmer, but opinions vary.
steven mosher (00:45:06) :
For we engineers these are just standard practice.
This must surely be the case for all practical based professions. Taking it a stage further; I wonder how far all this would have got if this was a murder trial. The case would surely have been thrown out because of tampered evidence, lack of evidence, withholding of evidence, inadmissible evidence and large amounts of conjecture and ‘leading the witness’.
Cut them up for firewood and ship them to Al Gore’s mansion with a sentiment that reads “You were wrong. Celebrate and have a bonfire.”
Here i made an illustration of the divergence problem:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/divergence.gif
Se how close the REAL yamal curve lies to the normal proxi average. (On this graf most major proxies are included, even Briffas. Here the proxies included in the illustration above:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/lanser_holocene_figure1.png?w=509&h=275
an updated fig2 from this article:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/11/making-holocene-spaghetti-sauce-by-proxy/
The CA story has made it into the mainstream media via James Delingpole’s Daily Telegraph blog.
“How the global warming industry is based on one MASSIVE lie”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100011716/how-the-global-warming-industry-is-based-on-one-massive-lie/
Hopefully this will now be picked up by a few more sceptical mainstream hacks – but don’t hold your breath for the BBC.
I’ve cross posted the Telegraph link to Monbiot’s Grauniad CIF today – which has survived for around half an hour and counting.
José Antonio (03:02:18) :
Is broken the record of antartic sea ice?
The website from University of Bremen shows that record from September 2007 is broken:
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
José, when i tried, the link was down, I also tried from their website:
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/iuppage/psa/2001/amsrop.html
to press “AMSR-sea ice charts” but it is taken down / “error”….
So, just when Antarctic break yet a max record, the chart is down?
Too many visitors? Or?
Mick (02:26:05) :
So, how many schoolbooks need to be replaced?
With recycled paper of course!!
in meteorologie, climatologie and geographie i dont know any school book, whichs shows graphes of m. mann or like that. von storch called the graph “nosnsens”
every schoolar literature shows the mwp and the lia and i hope, that will never change.
steven mosher (00:45:06) :
“It’s like this. They will now go out into the field and do 100 cores. They will examine those cores and only supply the data that confirms their hypothesis. When Steve McIntyre did his coring he followed the right proceedure. Take the cores, archive them all. Analysis is separate from proper data collection and archiving. You find a related difficulty in Kaufman 09, where the sediment series ( varves) are transformed and manipulated before they are archived. Always Always the raw data needs to be archived.”
To me, the most disturbing aspect of this whole incident is the fact that it took *** years *** to finally pry the data away from Briffa et al. (data which should have been archived in a timely manner and available to all).
Unfortunately, there will be no consequences for these researchers; they will continue to publish whatever they want (thanks to their buddies on the review panels for the major climate science journals), and their taxpayer-funded climate “science” projects will still keep flowing in…
There’s been speculation in the latest threads that media such as the Australian Broadcasting Corporation might report Steve McIntyre’s exposure of the hockey stick farce. Fat chance.
Instead, the pinnacle of Australian television current affairs, the ABC’s 7.30 Report, tonight interviewed IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri re the latest HADLEY scare campaign.
Go to http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
It’s sadly hilarious, including hearing that “the number of skeptics is going down very rapidly all over the world” and people like us should “think objectively”.
The interview wraps up with a postscript passing on Pachauri’s advice that meat-eaters can all cut carbon output and save the world by eating one less meat meal per week.
The Met Office predictions are now synonymous with epic failure. They couldn’t predict sunrise and sunset with any great accuracy, let alone weather. As for global warming, I’ve just resturned from walking my dog and I can tell you that warm the north western UK weather ain’t!
Autumn arrived a little early this year and is now in full swing. The weather’s cold, damp and miserable. I haven’t seen the sun for days because of the dreary grey overcast. Right now I could use a little global warming. Maybe I’ll print off a few of those nice graphs and set them ablaze…
At what point in proceedings does evidence migrate from being merely flawed to become misleading, and at what further point does any such misleading evidence drift into deliberate untruths, and from there who can hold the person(s) responsible as being either negligent or legally accountable?
$Billions have been spent / invested / squandered on the strength of the Hockey Stick. I remember the BBC’s ‘Climate Wars’ from a couple of years back, where a huge great billboard was driven throughout central London for TV.
The image? Why, the now hopelessly discredited (possibly worse than ‘discredited’) Hockey Stick.
Someone should be held accountable.
I’m confused on a couple of points of those trees…
1) Are they all from the same area in Russia?
1a) If they are all from the same area, how can one area be used to determine the entire earth’s temperature?
2) What were the tree rings of these trees used for, Mann’s 1st hockey stick, his 2nd stick, or some other stick?
Is it even possible to turn the political tanker around? I very much doubt it.
Oh, woe is me. I am truly uplifted by Steve’s discovery.
However, I’m pessimistic that anyone will hear this. This monumental hoax is debunked and could save the world trillions of dollars and countless lives and resources….but all I expect to hear is the continued roar of chirping crickets. Statists have their fingers in their ears when it comes to discussion. They are only interested in dictation!
The stick is dead, long live the stick!
My optimistic half allows some glimmer of trust that the word will spread, that the truth will prevail. For the sake of my son and his future children…I hope that all this eco-foolishness is put to rest. Man(n)-caused cooling, warming, change…what utter hubris! [I love the “it’s cooling as a side effect of AGW”!]
I’ll allow that we should be responsible stewards of the bountiful Earth. Use it wisely rather than disuse it, misuse it, or abuse it. How clever of us to convert dead matter into useable energy! Hey…we can also do it with rocks, wind, sunshine, rushing water, tides, waves, and a long list of other resources.
Long live prosperous, productive, and FREE human beings!
OK, kids; great Halloween costume idea. A zombie hockey stick.
The lane is very dirty
And my shoes are very thin.
I’ve got a little pocket
To put a penny in.
If you haven’t got a penny,
A ha’penny will do.
If you haven’t got a ha’penny,
May God Bless You.
==================
My wife was complaining this morning about two NPR gabfests she heard in the car, one on ‘climate change’ and Copenhagen, the other on windmills in the desert. In both the participants, including the hosts, all assumed that Global Warming (aka ‘climate change’) is an established fact, a problem that must be dealt with. At no point did anyone even raise the possibility that there might be a contrary view, or that the science was not entirely settled, that more CO2 might be beneficial, or that the evidence for recent ‘global warming’ might be shaky.
Of course that was NPR, but the same can be said for all of the media, aside from conservative talk radio and skeptical sites in the blogosphere, like this one. Nothing that is transpiring here or over on CA is even beginning to penetrate the consciousness of the political and media elites, not to mention the general public.
What can be done to penetrate this wall of silence, this stone foundation of ‘accepted fact’? Well, there’s one thing that will get the media’s attention:
Scandal.
I know that Anthony and most scientists are very reluctant to use the ‘F’ word, and understandably so. But given that ‘climate change’ is the banner for a massive political movement, which creates a huge impediment to anyone questioning the underlying science, maybe the only way to get crack the foundation is to hit it with the ‘F’ jackhammer.
The elite media won’t listen to a bunch of ragtag ‘skeptics’ and ‘deniers’ (as they are routinely disparaged and dismissed), but they will start paying attention if a few prominent scientists start charging ‘F____’. They will pay even more attention if a national society (like the AAAS) is forced to begin an investigation.
If scientists are caught cherry-picking only the data that supports (and dramatizes!) their hypotheses, and refusing to release all of the data for other other scientists to check, then that is prima facie evidence of misconduct. Scientific misconduct is a very serious charge. It is time for members of the relevant societies to start demanding public investigations.
/Mr Lynn
Maybe we are not seeing the wood for the trees 🙂 If you read this new data as indicating that the temperature actually decreased over this period, then you are stuck trying to reconcile that theory with observations from satellite and other proxy data that clearly indicates a period of rapid warming towards the end of the last century. Surely the goal here is to discover what is happening, not to play “gotcha” on science that is already getting old… and there is a good chance that it will turn out to be close to accurate.. however flawed in conception. Lets play “do some original research and publish it” instead.
Chris 5:44:13
Meatless Easter Season?
No eating bunnies, anyway.
===============
This should now be treated as a criminal action.
And considering the consequences to our economy, our jobs, our childrens education, then I think we should consider this an act of deliberate and planned Treason.
It’s a pitty that there are no politicians brave enough to stand up and call these people Traitors and criminals who should face the full force of the law.
You know, I beg that it ends in ridicule, not anger.
Baksheesh.
======
I’ve sent links to the original story to both of my Senators in Tennessee and to Senator Inhofe, who is the only skeptic voice in the Senate and on the Ernergy Committee. I advocate many of you do the same. It’s great if a bunch of us “interested people” know this stuff, but it’s a political issue, it needs politicains to get the story out.
I may be a bit niave, but some of them really will do the right thing – even if only to grab headlines… 😉
why all this complicate and diffus works with tree rings?
i think we have some other, very good methods to find out, how warm the mwp on the northern hemisphere had been. in the greater alpine region (europe) eg. we know, that the tree limit in the mountains was about 2300m, today it is around 1900 to 2300m. we have glaciers proxis, which show a less glaciation between 1000 and 1400 in the alps. we have good proxis from central england (ipcc 1996 shown) and some more (indirect) proxis from china, usa, skandinavia and greenland. so in central europa it is very clear, that it was warmen than today, because trees don`t grow in levels over 2200m if it is not warm enougt there.
what about tree limit levels studies in moutains of skandinavia, russland, usa, china, japan etc.? a very easy and seriosly method to show past temperatures!?
Interesting that one of Mann’s initial “rebutes” of his hockey stick were words to the effect of “I never merged tree-ring data with thermometer data, and I never said that tree-ring data (temperature proxies from 1700 to 2000 years ago) should be merged with recent thermometer records.”…
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter6.pdf
But the IPCC’s AR4 (though not plotting his hockey stick directly – which did exactly that merging – repeats over and over again that tree-ring data IS one of their primary sources of temperature information over the past 2000 years. Earlier IPCC reports were at least honest enough to plot Mann’s data, not just use it in their words.
And, also in that AR4 report, the radiative “climate forcing” of CO2, Methane, NO2 and total greenhouse gasses are presented in THEIR full hockey stick glory.
—-
A second question arises: Since Mann’s tree ring data IS actually being merged with historical thermometer data, what temperature data did Mann (and Briffa!) actually use for recent temperatures?
Actual surface temperature warming since 1890 is between 1/2 of one degree and 7/10 of one degree – if UHI is removed from the record. Since 1950, surface temperature warming is less than 3/10 of one degree.
If the tree ring data is being (has been ??) “calibrated against a bad thermometer” because corrected global temperatures were used, (not actual temperatures of the actual trees – which are ALSO said to vary significantly from the atmospheric temperatures), were the estimated past temperature proxies off? How much were they “off” – if they are wrongly compared to recent temperatures that are themselves incorrect? If they were off, in what direction were they wrongly “corrected” when they were merged into the historical record?
I believe that what matters for the future is having a healthy “citizens’ science” that can counterbalance the temptations to corrupt that can open up as soon as one gets paid. I believe in the creative tension between “amateur” and “professional”, and that is truly the best of British. Even the warmist hype has arisen in part in a naive belief that it is individuals standing up to corrupt Big Oil and so forth – though here we know that that time has long since passed, if it ever existed.
Now that Ellie from Belfast has thoroughly opened my eyes to the level of degradation in the NASA GISS records (just the UK ones at that) I’m fired up and hoping to write up something that can kick-start another interactive project like Surface Stations, to rescue and sustain the real records. I’ve found evidence that pretty well every single GISS UK record that supposedly started in 1880 actually started earlier, and/or continues later than GISS shows, often is still extant. GISS UK looks so awful that I want to keep checking that I’ve really got my basic facts right about this, it seems too awful to be true.
I want to contact record-keepers right across the country. I want to develop a project that is positive and creative and interactive for people quite independently of the climate science issues, to reclaim the true original independent spirit of Science that of itself would have protected the data and prevented the current problems ever arising. The cooperation between amateurs and professionals that still exists in Astronomy and is close to the surface in Meteorology.