The Chinese civilization has existed survived intact far longer than any other in human history, and they have records of that civilization that span 2-3 thousand years BC. They’ve seen more climate change than any other civilization.
The Guardian recently interviewed Xiao Ziniu, the director general of the Beijing Climate Center.
Excerpts:
A 2C rise in global temperatures will not necessarily result in the calamity predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), China’s most senior climatologist has told the Guardian.
He had this bit of wisdom to pass along:
“There is no agreed conclusion about how much change is dangerous,” Xiao said. “Whether the climate turns warmer or cooler, there are both positive and negative effects. We are not focusing on what will happen with a one degree or two degree increase, we are looking at what level will be a danger to the environment. In Chinese history, there have been many periods warmer than today.”
He added:
“Climate prediction has only come into operation in recent years. The accuracy of the prediction is very low because the climate is affected by many mechanisms we do not fully understand.”
We would do well to listen.
More important, we should take note of the fact that China laughs in the face of the west when it comes to regulating their own economy through self imposed emissions goals, while the west cuts back its manufacturing capability, China surges forward.
Nixon awakened a sleeping giant. They’ll squish us like a bug economically and in many other areas. For example China just this week broke ground on a fourth space launch complex.
China will likely go to the moon before the US returns there, perhaps as early as 2014. Meanwhile they aren’t worried about anything, whether it be the atmospheric or the political climate.
In looking at this map from the Beijing Climate Center, it is notable how they see things differently.
pwl (19:44:51) :
Inherent randomness within a system is a NEW basic scientific fact proven by Stephen Wolfram in A New Kind of Science. It’s likely that climate scientists are not aware of it yet.
Seems to be true for the Sun as well.
From the article;
“In Chinese history, there have been many periods warmer than today.”
How can he make a statement like that? After all, they didin’t have Al Gore nor computer models to simulate and predict climate therefore their obsevations cannot be right.
I think the Chinese perspective on history can provide some insight into why they responded the way they did to Tienanmen in the early 1990’s.
Given the amount of time they have recorded their affairs, and their ability to compare periods of peace and prosperity with those of chaos and deprivation, the Chinese authoritarian streak is understandable.
I don’t say their way right, just that it is easier to understand their reasoning.
I am not entirely with Mr Geo (19:48:39). I am aware of substantial detailed talks between Hong Kong businessmen (and some, but few, women) prior to the handover in 1997 and none of them feared the handover because of what they had learned of Chinese intentions. For some years before 1997 China had moved towards a more market-orientated economy, although it seems likely that the full scale of what they might achieve was not recognised by their leaders until they had sight of the full glory of Hong Kong’s success.
As to the observations of Xiao Ziniu, what is so important is the difference between his position and that adopted by political leaders in the west. He says, in effect, everything is far too uncertain and subject to far too many unknown factors that no one can say what will happen in 50 years’ time let alone 100 years.
Is there a single person on this planet who does not believe that to be the case?
Well, OK, there are many who say it is not the case, but do they really believe what they say?
Is it not patently obvious that there are so many uncertainties that only those who (i) believe those uncertainties to be irrelevant to the overriding power of carbon dioxide and/or (ii) have a political agenda to fulfill, could support basing economic policy on the prognostications of a few of Dr Hansen’s computers?
The Chinese are far too sensible to do any such thing. They have mouths to feed. Even if the doom-mongers are correct, they will still have mouths to feed. And they know the only way to feed them is to do what their previous ideology spurned while the West got warm and cozy.
Civilization as we know it ceased to exist in China during the Cultural Revolution, 1966-1976, a period in which political doctrine was elevated to an infallible State religion. [SARCON] Can’t happen here, though, right? [SARCOFF]
Run away?
Does one run away into a better opportunity?
As for Russia, their demographic profile is among the world’s worst. They are imploding. Soon they will have an empty land rich in resources right next door to the world’s biggest population. Good luck with that.
And finally, Mandarin is the lingua franca of business here.
Thank you for illustrating my point about intellectual sloth.
Patrick Davis (21:23:38) :
They observed. They watched and learned.
OT- AMSR-E
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
is about to cross the green line.
And the DMI continues to drop like a rock.
The pitchforks of public opinion will soon turn from Healthcare to AGW as the favorite thing to skewer.
Kevin (20:52:55) : They’ve seen more climate change than any other civilization…. this one [premise] is quite faulty. You are clearly implying that chinese people have more knowledge on the subject of climate change, since they’ve been around for thousands of years. Have they been able to predict future climates in those thousands of years?
I think you are missing the point. The civilisation has been around during warmer and cooler periods and they have recorded history whether these periods were good or bad, calamitous or not.
From this knowledge they are not buying NASA’s GISS story which has been around with its radical theories for just a few decades. While the Chinese and their space programs surge ahead, NASA struggles just to replace its aging Shuttles and advocates programs that would send the US backwards into developing world status.
evanmjones (20:17:41) :
You could argue that China is the oldest surviving civilization.
(Or you can take it back to the Yellow Emperor . . .)
You might have an argument from Egypt (but they were under occupation for a lot longer than China under the Mongols and setting aside various/sundry Times of Troubles).
REPLY: Yes Evan, you said it better than I. I considered Egypt, but the Chinese continuity is what I was really speaking to. – Anthony
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Well, to the both of you, wouldn’t that really frame the argument for what kind of climate is best for human survival?
Patrick Davis (21:23:38) : “How can he make a statement like that? After all, they didin’t have Al Gore…
Nor Al Capone, either… Way, way behind…
Honestly, the Greco-Roman Mediterranean societies can be included if it weren’t for those pesky barbarians being frozen out of their homes…
Slightly OT –
@Claude Harvey (21:15:35) :
Of course Chinese can communicate with each other throughout the country.
Chinese from all over China and the world use Manadarin (Putonghua) as a lingua franca. Most people speak their own local languages as well as Mandarin.
The written language is what has unified China over centuries. Characters can be learned with application and since most Chinese can do it in a small part of a lifetime, I’m not sure why you think it should take anyone 2.
The Chinese are going to eat our lunch. While we are sitting around arguing about political correctness, reducing GHGs, white guilt, racism, single payer health care etc. the Chinese are going ahead full blast. They are building nuclear power plants, coal fired plants, drilling for oil every place they can and what ever else it takes to advance their economy.
The first time I went to Beijing in 2001 I couldn’t believe what I saw. Beijing was overwhelming. Even back then it made downtown L.A. look like a wide spot in the road. Later on I made several trips down south to Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Same story, even these second tier cities were incredible. They were all new and modern. Huge skyscrapers and apartments everywhere, great freeways and infrastructure etc. I was awed and scared, how could we in America not know what the hell was going on. I believe we are incredibly naive about China and Asia in general. We better wake up soon and throw off all the shackles that are being placed on our economy by the greenie zealots and lefty politicos. We are well on our way to being a second rate power and economy.
Beijing is a great party town. Had some of the best times of my life there 😉
The BCC left me with the impression that temperatures are going to increase by 2 degrees over the next 30 years. Are they also misguided by fancy models or just calculating?
Interesting point made earlier about China being on the moon before NASA . The US in the 1960’s regarded the USSR as a scientific and political competitor and this produced spirited innovation. I do not see the US as regarding anyone as a competitor now. China is viewed as a trading partner rather than a scientific competitor. Will it take a Chinese landing on the moon for the US to wake up?,or has it given up on the spirit of competition?
Re: chip (21:40:34) :
“Run away? Does one run away into a better opportunity?”
Every guy who ever ran from a fight told himself he was actually “pursuing a better opportunity”. It appears we’ll just have to muddle along here without your brilliant company; a stupefying loss, I’m sure.
Incidentally, the Russian recommendation was a joke. “Speaking Chinese” was not.
Patrick Davis (20:11:11) :
OT, but will these greenies be prosecuted?
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/entertainment/865229/activists-dump-manure-on-clarksons-lawn
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Sorry to propagate the OTness, but I’m guessing that Clarkson’s looking at the horse manure and thinking “Jeeez, now if I could only get them to dump it on my rose garden” !!!
“FWIW, one of the very best commodity traders in the world, Jim Rogers, has packed up and moved to Singapore so his kids will grow up speaking chinese and be prepared for the future…”
if i were 30 years younger, I would be doing the same.
How refreshing to see a sensible view about climate and how a few degrees change in temperature either way is not a major problem. Both have pros and cons associated with them and we have survived many major climate variations before.
People have adapted to change in the past and will adapt again in the future. Providing we have good supplies of energy which we are willing to share the human race will be fine.
This is a lesson the rest of the world needs to learn fast.
Their map of anomalies looks far more believable than anything generated in the West. It clearly reflects the actual temeprature variations experienced by humans. We all know August was colder than people are used to in most of the US and warmer than people are used to in Australia. I have never ‘bought’ the idea that the anomalies felt by people end up being reflected at a +0.4 deg c anomaly on a GISS or HadCRUT map. They always seemed too low.
This was in The Grauniad??? What is the world coming to?
Having just read the Guardian article, following the refreshing honesty from this guy (who effectively represents 25% of the people of the planet – at least on climate issues) ….. was the total and utter garbage from the World Meteorological Organisation report stating that climate change is already wreaking havoc in China
A 2 millisecond Google search on “natural disasters in China” brings up Wikipedia and the first sentence is :
“China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters. It had 6 of the world’s top 10 deadliest natural disasters; the top 3 occurred in China: the 1931 China floods, death toll 2 million to 4 million, the 1887 Yellow River flood, death toll 0.9 million to 2 million, and the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, death toll 0.83 million”
You just have to laugh … .so the biggest natural disasters were floods in 1931 and 1887.
Copenhagen is toast .. thank god !
Re. PWL 19:44:45
The climate stats would probably be fractal in nature and would follow a power law
Phil’s Dad (20:56:34) :
Native Americans – 20,000 years
REPLY: Good point, but do they have any written records of what weather and climate were like? – Anthony
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Perhaps not as long as you think – this quote from wikipedia (not the best source I know, but easily accessible)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples_of_the_Americas
“According to the still-debated New World migration model, a migration of humans from Eurasia to the Americas took place via Beringia, a land bridge which connected the two continents across what is now the Bering Strait. The most recent point at which this migration could have taken place is c. 12,000 years ago, with the earliest period remaining a matter of some unresolved contention.”