As many WUWT readers know, Steve McIntyre’s tireless quest to get the raw data that makes up the gridded Hadley Climate Research Unit HadCRUT dataset has been fraught with delays, FOI denials, and obvious obfuscation. In some cases the “dog ate my homework” is the excuse. The UK Register has an excellent summary of the issue.
A similar issue has been brewing in parallel over tree ring data in the UK. Doug Keenan tells us the story of getting the “ring around” for over 2 years trying to obtain what many would consider a simple and non controversial data request. – Anthony
Guest Post by Doug Keenan

Queen’s University Belfast is a public body in the United Kingdom. As such, it is required to make certain information available under the UK Freedom of Information Act. The university holds some information about tree rings (which is important in climate studies and in archaeology). Following discusses my attempt to obtain that information, using the Act.
When a tree is cut, you can often see many concentric rings. Typically, there is one ring for each year during which the tree grew. Some rings will be thick: those indicate years in which the environment was good for the tree. Other rings will be thin: those indicate the opposite.
Scientists study tree rings for two main purposes. One purpose is to learn something about what the climate was like many years ago. For instance, if many trees in a region had thick rings in some particular years, then climatic conditions in those years were presumably good (e.g. warm and with lots of rain); tree rings have been used in this way to learn about the climate centuries ago. The other purpose in studying tree rings is to date artefacts found in archaeological contexts; for an example, see here.
Tree-ring data from Northern Ireland
One of the world’s leading centers for tree-ring work is at Queen’s University Belfast (QUB), in Northern Ireland. The tree-ring data that QUB has gathered is valuable for studying the global climate during the past 7000 years: for a brief explanation of this, see here.
Most of the tree-ring data held by QUB was gathered decades ago; yet it has never been published. There is a standard place on the internet to publish such data: the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), which currently holds tree-ring data from over 1500 sites around the world. QUB refuses to publish or otherwise release most of its data, though. So I have tried to obtain the data by applying under the UK Freedom of Information Act (FoI Act).
I have submitted three separate requests for the data. Each request described the data in a different way, in an attempt to avoid nit-picking objections. All three requests were for the data in electronic form, e.g. placed on the internet or sent as an e-mail attachment. The first request was submitted in April 2007.
QUB refused the first request in May 2007. I appealed the refusal to a Pro-Vice-Chancellor of QUB, who rejected the appeal. The primary reason that the Pro-Vice-Chancellor gave for rejection was that some of the data was in paper form and had not been converted to electronic form. The Pro-Vice-Chancellor additionally claimed that after data was converted to electronic form, “It is then uploaded to the International Tree Ring Data Base”. There might indeed be some small portion of the data that is not in electronic form. My request, though, was for a copy of the data that is in electronic form. So, is all data that is in electronic form available at the ITRDB, as the Pro-Vice-Chancellor claimed?
QUB has in the past published the results of various analyses of its tree-ring data (most notably its claim to have sequences of overlapping tree rings extending back in time many millennia). In doing the analyses, the sequences of tree-ring data are analyzed statistically, and the statistical computations are done by computer. This is well known, and moreover has been stated by QUB’s former head tree-ring researcher, Michael G.L. Baillie, in several his publications. (Indeed, Baillie and his colleague Jon R. Pilcher, also at QUB, wrote a widely-used computer program for tree-ring matching, CROS.) Obviously the data that was used for those computations is in electronic form—and it has not been uploaded to the ITRDB. Thus the claim by the Pro-Vice-Chancellor is untrue.
The Pro-Vice-Chancellor further claimed that to organize the data in “the very precise categories which [I] have specified” [in my request] would entail a vast amount of work. My request, though, was merely for the tree-ring data that had been obtained and used by the university; that hardly seems like precise categorization. Moreover, I later submitted a second request for “the data about tree rings that has been obtained by [QUB] and that is held in electronic form by the university”. That request was also refused. And a third request that was very similar to the second was refused. All three requests were refused in whole, even though the university is required to make partial fulfillment when that is practicable.
The UK Information Commissioner’s Office
After half a year of trying to obtain the information from QUB, I appealed to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO). The ICO is charged with ensuring that the FoI Act is enforced. My appeal to the ICO was submitted on 24 October 2007. The ICO notified me that an officer had been assigned to begin investigating my case on 14 October 2008. Such a long delay is clearly incompatible with effective working of the Act.
The ICO then contacted QUB, asking for further information. QUB then admitted that almost all the data was stored in electronic form. Thus QUB implicitly admitted that its prior claims were untruthful.
QUB now asserted, however, that the data was on 150 separate disks and that it would take 100 hours to copy those disks. (These were floppy disks—the type that slide into computers and, prior to the internet, were commonly used to carry electronic data.) It takes only a minute or two to copy a floppy disk, however; so the claim of 100 hours to copy 150 floppy disks is an unrealistic exaggeration.
QUB also said that it considered photocopying a printed version of the data, but that this would take over 1800 hours. As noted above, all my requests were for data that is in electronic form; moreover, I have repeated this point in subsequent correspondences with QUB. The statement from QUB about photocopying is thus not relevant.
On 22 December 2008, the ICO sent me a letter rejecting my appeal, on the grounds that the time needed by QUB would exceed an “appropriate limit” (as stipulated in the FoI Act). The ICO had accepted QUB’s explanation for refusing to release the data without question, and without discussing the explanation with me. I telephoned the ICO to raise some objections. To each objection that I raised, the ICO case officer gave the same reply: “I’m satisfied with their [QUB’s] explanation”.
I also offered to visit QUB with the case officer, to demonstrate how quickly the data could be copied (e.g. from floppy disks), and to copy the data myself. This seemed particularly appropriate because the officer had told me when she started on the case that she would visit QUB as a standard part of investigation, yet she had not made such a visit. The officer, though, declined my offer, again saying that she was satisfied with QUB’s explanation.
There is a mechanism to appeal an ICO decision, to a tribunal. I told the case officer that I wanted to do so. The officer replied that, in order to file an appeal, I would need a formal Decision Notice from the ICO. I requested a Decision Notice. The officer then informed me that the ICO would send a Notice, but that, because they were busy, it would take about two years to do so.
Environmental Information Regulations
I discussed the above with a colleague, David Holland. Holland said that my request should not have been processed under the FoI Act. His reasoning was that the information I was requesting was about the environment: environmental information is exempt from the FoI Act and requests for such information should instead be processed under the Environmental Information Regulations (EIR). He pointed out that the tree-ring data clearly fits the definition of “environmental information” given in the EIR. It also clearly fits the common (dictionary) definition.
I had been aware that the EIR existed, but had assumed that the EIR was essentially the same as the FoI Act. After the discussion with Holland, though, I checked and found that there is one major difference between the EIR and the FoI Act: under the EIR, there is no limit on the amount of time that a public institution requires to process a request. In other words, even if QUB’s original claim that some of the data was only available on paper were true, or even if QUB’s revised claim that copying data from disks would take 100 hours were true, that would still not be a valid reason for refusing to supply the information.
I am not an expert in how to apply the EIR or FoI Act, though. So I telephoned the ICO headquarters to ask for guidance. There I spoke with a Customer Service Advisor, Mike Chamberlain. Chamberlain told me the following: that the information seemed obviously environmental; that there was no limit on processing time that could be used to refuse a request for environmental information; that I could freely visit a site where environmental information was held in order to examine the information; and that it was the duty of the public authority (i.e. QUB) to determine whether the EIR or the FoI Act was applicable. Chamberlain also confirmed everything that he told me with someone more senior at the ICO.
It is regrettable that I had not realized the above earlier. My initial request to QUB, in April 2007, had stated the following.
It might be that this request is exempt from the FOIAct, because the data being requested is environmental information. If you believe that to be so, process my request under the Environmental Information Regulations.
QUB, however, had not processed my application correctly. I should have caught that.
There is another issue. I had described the information to the ICO case officer by telephone and also by e-mail (on 24 November 2008). Hence the case officer must have known that the information was environmental, and thus exempt under the FoI Act and only requestable under the EIR. Why did the ICO not act on that? On 29 January 2009, I e-mailed the case officer, citing the above-quoted statement from my request to QUB and saying “I would like to know the reasoning that led to my request being processed under the Freedom of Information Act, instead of EIR”. Initially, there was no reply.
The EIR was enacted pursuant to the Aarhus Convention, an international treaty on environmental information that the UK promoted, signed, and ratified. Failure to implement the EIR would constitute a failure by the UK to adhere to the Convention. So, a few weeks after e-mailing my question to the ICO, and with no reply, I contacted the Aarhus Convention Secretariat (ACS), at the United Nations in Geneva. The ACS has a mechanism whereby individuals can file a complaint against a country for breaching the Convention. I had an initial discussion with the ACS about this. That turned out to be unnecessary though. The Assistant Information Commissioner for Northern Ireland contacted me, on 10 March 2009: he was now handling my case and, moreover, he had visited QUB and seen some of the data.
On 22 April 2009, I received a telephone call from the Assistant Information Commissioner for Northern Ireland. The Assistant Commissioner said that he was preparing a Decision Notice for the case, and he made it clear that the Notice would hold that the data should be released under the EIR. The next I heard anything was on 13 July 2009, when it was announced that the Assistant Commissioner had been suspended. On 13 August 2009, I telephoned the ICO: I was told that a new officer would be assigned to the case within the next few days and that a draft Notice, which had been written by the Assistant Commissioner, was in the signatory process. I am presently awaiting further word.
Another example—Gothenburg University
I have previously been involved with obtaining tree-ring data from another institution: Gothenburg University, in Sweden. Sweden has a law that is similar to the UK’s Freedom of Information Act (the Swedish law is the Principle of Public Access). In 2004, Swedish courts ruled that the law applied to research data held by universities. In a famous case known as the “Gillberg affair”, a researcher at Gothenburg University refused to obey the law. As a result, both the researcher and the rector of the university were convicted of criminal malfeasance. (The researcher received a suspended sentence and a fine; the rector received a fine.)
Gothenburg University does substantial tree-ring research. On 10 April 2007, I requested their tree-ring data. The university’s lead tree-ring researcher repeatedly resisted, claiming that it would take weeks of his time, and that he was too busy to do it. On 22 April 2008, I sent a letter to the (new) rector of Gothenburg University, saying that if the data was not supplied, I would file complaints with both the Court and the Parliamentary Ombudsmen of Sweden. The next day, all the data was submitted to the ITRDB.
What transpired with Gothenburg University exemplifies the importance of laws on Freedom of Information for tree-ring data.
Motivations for withholding data
Some people have asked why QUB does not want to release the data. In fact, most tree-ring laboratories do not make their data available: it is not just QUB and Gothenburg that have been reluctant. The reason for this was elucidated by Peter M. Brown, in April 2007. At the time, Brown was president of the Tree-Ring Society, which is the main international organization for tree-ring researchers. Following is an excerpt (the full explanation is here).
… they ARE my data. Funding agencies pay me for my expertise, my imagination, and my insights to be able to make some advance in our understanding of how nature works, not for raw data sets. … It is the understanding and inferences supplied by the scientist that funding agencies are interested in, not her or his raw data.
In other words, even if the research and the researcher’s salary are fully paid for by the public—as is the case at QUB—the researcher still regards the data as his or her personal property.
There are only a few tree-ring laboratories where attitudes are different. One example is the University of St Andrews, in the UK. Almost all tree-ring data held by St Andrews is freely available in the ITRDB.
It is notable that QUB continues to withhold its data even though, in 2009, the tree-ring laboratory at QUB was effectively closed. The closure was primarily due to the lab lacking funds, which presumably resulted from having almost no research publications (i.e. the lab had not been producing anything; so funding agencies declined to support it). The dearth of publications occurred even though the lab has some extremely valuable data on what is arguably the world’s most important scientific topic—global warming (as outlined here). This problem arises because the QUB researchers do not have expertise to analyze the data themselves and they do not want to share their data with other researchers who do.
| Date | Sender | Summary (with link) |
| 2007-04-10 | DJK | My first request for the information held by QUB (sent by e-mail). |
| 2007-04-16 | QUB | Acknowledgement of request. |
| 2007-05-11 | QUB | E-mail saying that there will be a delay in responding to the request (which is required to be within 20 business days of my request), but that QUB would respond by May 18th. |
| 2007-05-21 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, about the lack of response from QUB; Cc’d to QUB. |
| 2007-05-22 | QUB | First refusal of the request for information. |
| 2007-05-22 | QUB | E-mail with attached description of how to appeal the refusal (this was sent following a telephone call to QUB in which I noted that they are required to send me such). |
| 2007-05-23 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, noting that QUB had responded. |
| 2007-05-24 | DJK | Appeal of the refusal, submitted to a Pro-Vice-Chancellor of QUB. |
| 2007-05-25 | QUB | Initial response to the appeal, saying that appeal to a Pro-Vice-Chancellor should be resorted to only if QUB’s Information Compliance Officer and I are unable to resolve things ourselves. |
| 2007-06-02 | ICO | Acknowledgement of my prior e-mails, correctly noting that the ICO should not act at this time. |
| 2007-06-21 | QUB | Second refusal of the request for information. |
| 2007-07-13 | DJK | Appeal, submitted to a Pro-Vice-Chancellor of QUB. |
| 2007-07-26 | QUB | Notification that a response to my appeal to a Pro-Vice-Chancellor will be delayed until the second half of August. |
| 2007-08-15 | QUB | E-mail from a Pro-Vice-Chancellor, saying that a response to my appeal will be sent by September 30th (i.e. about seven weeks after the four-week limit). |
| 2007-09-28 | QUB | Rejection of my appeal by a Pro-Vice-Chancellor. |
| 2007-10-24 | DJK | Appeal to the ICO. |
| 2007-11-27 | ICO | Acknowledgement of appeal, saying that it might be several months before I hear from the ICO again. |
| 2008-05-15 | DJK | Second request for the information held by QUB. |
| 2008-05-15 | DJK | Third request for the information held by QUB. |
| 2008-06-12 | QUB | Rejection of my second and third requests, by the Head of the Registrar’s Office. |
| 2008-06-19 | DJK | E-mailed reply to the Head of the Registrar’s Office at QUB. |
| 2008-07-01 | QUB | Acknowledgement of my last e-mail, by the Head of the Registrar’s Office. |
| 2008-07-15 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, notifying them of the rejected second and third requests for the information. |
| 2008-10-14 | ICO | E-mail notifying me that an officer has been assigned to my case and asking me to confirm that I would like to proceed. |
| 2008-10-15 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, confirming that I would like to proceed. |
| 2008-11-24 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, briefly synopsizing how tree-ring dating works (this followed a telephone call, in which the case officer had said that might be helpful). |
| 2008-11-24 | ICO | Acknowledgement of my last e-mail and notice that QUB’s response had been slightly delayed. |
| 2008-12-22 | ICO | Rejection of appeal. |
| 2009-01-21 | DJK | E-mail summarizing telephone call with the ICO; during the call I was informed that it would take roughly two years for the ICO to issue a Decision Notice on the case. |
| 2009-01-21 | ICO | Letter acknowledging my request for a Decision Notice (this was sent 43 minutes after my last e-mail, and its content appears to be independent of that). |
| 2009-01-29 | DJK | E-mail to the ICO, asking why my requests for information had been processed under the FoI Act, instead of the EIR. |
| 2009-03-02 | DJK | E-mail to the ACS, alleging a breach of the Aarhus Convention by the United Kingdom. |
| 2009-03-10 | ACS | Reply from the ACS Legal Support Officer, concluding that the evidence substantiating the allegation is sufficient for the ACS to proceed with a review. |
| 2009-03-10 | ICO | E-mail from the Assistant Information Commissioner for Northern Ireland, saying that he was handling the case and he had visited QUB (this was concomitant with a telephone call, which elaborated). |
| 2009-03-11 | DJK | E-mail to the ACS, saying that the ICO was now progressing things, and so my allegation was unnecessary. |
| 2009-03-11 | ACS | Acknowledgement of prior e-mail. |
| 2009-03-25 | ICO | E-mail from the Assistant Information Commissioner, saying that he was continuing with work on the case and would contact me again after Easter. |
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Amazing, just amazing. So much effort to hide the common heritage of all the world…
“ralph ellis (00:36:13) :
As an aside, the tree ring data is not 100% certain even about the age of wood samples. To go back 7,000 years, you need to match one trunk against another (through their tree ring signatures) to join them up into a series that goes back that far. There are no 7,000 year-old trees in Ireland.”
Irish Bog Oak? 5000+ years.
http://www.russianwolfstudios.com/Bog-Woods.php
brazil84: My work, and that of my colleagues was scrutinised by many people. The process of verification, checking and review meant that work was carried out to a very high standard. Everybody is allowed to make mistakes, but multiple scrutiny ensures that very few errors remain undetected. People who regularly make mistakes and do not learn from the process, soon become side-lined as unreliable. If you’re afraid of scrutiny, you shouldn’t be doing the work.
Nothing says, “fraud” quite so clearly as withholding information.
Where I work, data collected using government instruments and facilities is the property of the scientist for a short period (I’d have to guess about a year, could be less). After this time, the data is available on-line. The proprietary period is to allow the scientist time to analyze the data for original research and discovery. After that, everyone gets a crack at it.
Glenn (23:48:46) :
anna v (23:02:38) :
“I wonder if this freedom of information act would apply to the discovery of the Higgs, and if we would get various groups grappling over the same data as a result, trying to prove each other as bad data users, instead of doing a fresh experiment to measure the Higgs again, as is the traditional scientific method.”
Can you provide literature supporting your contention that holding on to data is part of the traditional scientific method?
No.
Just my over 40 years experience in publishing in my field, nobody has asked to see the original data. It would be an unthinkable request, and I would never ask to see the original data of others.
It is only in this climatological debacle that such a question has arisen.
Alan Wilkinson (00:56:27) :
anna v, supposing you worked for a corporation and did the same work. How could you possibly think you owned the data personally?
Why should publicly funded institutions and projects be any different?
And how many Van Gongs does a corporation fund?
That is the difference between creative scientists and application scientists. The reason the public funds scientific research is because societies have realized the value of the “divine fool”, the obsessed and dedicated scientist, to society as a whole. It is from these persons that new scientific discoveries will come, and up to now, society cultivates them in the hopes that a small percentage will come out with break through results opening new horizons. Corporations do not work that way.
TerryS (02:16:31) :
Re: anna v (23:02:38) :
The difference between physics experiments and tree rings is vast. With physics if you repeat the experiment you are likely to get the same results (hence the same data). With tree rings if you take a second core from the same tree then you are likely to get differing results.
As an example, in the image above a core taken at the 3 O’clock position shows (counting from outside to inside) a nice large -3 year and a poor thin -7 year. Take a core at the 2 0′clock position and both these years are approximately the same.
You are saying that the data are useless for climate studies anyway.
What this boils down to then is that tree ring data is unique, it can not be reproduced by experiment or even by going to the same trees as the original samples.
D. King (03:52:35) :
anna v (23:02:38)
I wonder if this freedom of information act would apply to the discovery of the Higgs, and if we would get various groups grappling over the same data as a result, trying to prove each other as bad data users, instead of doing a fresh experiment to measure the Higgs again, as is the traditional scientific method.
I’m just guessing, but I think Higgs data would end up in a
kind of bureaucratic Black hole.
Not really.
All the data in experiments I have been with at CERN exist somewhere and could be accessed by the groups that created them, and I suppose after a time when there are no surviving researchers by any physicist interested enough to dig into old formats. Data that can be used in current research are guarded closely. If one needs to look at it, one has to join the group that has them ( not very hard to do this)
I’ve been in and around the Northwestern USA woods most of my life,did some logging,
Student work in College, and Aerial fire fighting.There is so much variability from one area to the next,microclimates,even soil, can ,make a big difference.Trees like Douglas
Fir-for instance can be a valuable timber resource on one side of the Cascades and a
nothing but a fungus and bug ridden trouble on the other.
I’ve held tree rings are not a real good proxy,because of the varibles…
I can’t believe that the majority of their studies are stored on floppy disks and only on floppy disks. They were joking, right?
I am not connected with this department in any way, but I do know some of those who work there. I understand Doug Keenan’s frustration but I am appalled that this matter is being discussed in this way and I suspect that the actual ‘what is going on’ is far from an attempt to withhold information for protectionist reasons but is more procedural and cost-related. That probably does not excuse it, but I can imagine a few alternative perspectives.
Looking at the website of the department, it is not up-to-date; it is a department in which there has been a lot of change. Several people that are still listed in the Environmental Change group have moved on or now work for other departments. There seems to be little active research in dendrochronology and a glance at the current grant funding and PhD projects confirms that. Even if it is not up-to-date, it suggests the department evolved research-wise quite a few years ago. Apart from the Prof Emeritus Mike Baillie, and I don’t know how much he is still around, there seems to be one person still who did the original work still active as a researcher (not academic), and his funding almost certainly now is for work on other things. The data and discs are probably in an archive box.
Mr Keenan’s original request seems not un-reasonable, but he perhaps does not realise how much he has asked for. A quick search found me this: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/advance10k/workprog.htm
This (1994) lists QUB’s resource as 1,500 Irish and 600 English samples.
Here is the request from the link above:
“I request the following data, for each tree that has been used in any way in any publication by any current faculty member of the Department of Archaeology and Palaeoecology who (i) was wholly or partially responsible for measuring the widths of the tree’s rings and (ii) was a faculty member at the time of measuring:
* widths of the rings of the tree;
* list of years in which the tree rings grew (if known);
* description of precise location of where the tree was found.
It might be that this request is exempt from the FOIAct, because the data being requested is environmental information. If you believe that to be so, process my request under the Environmental Information Regulations.”
This is over 2000 samples, multiple researchers each using their own filing system (times many, many more rejected trees that can’t be matched) – easily more than 100 hours just to convert and collate and make sure you‘ve not missed anything. And if you are not familiar with the data is is easier to make a mistake. I can quite understand the refusal.
“OMG this goes back decades. How much data is there? How can we comply with this easily? I don’t know. It would be easier to refuse the request then? Yes much easier! Hmm, can we do that?”
That the data is not deposited in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, I can only suggest a lack of funding to prepare and submit it or a lack of thought for the need to apply for such funding. Most funding bodies expect some actual research outcome or ‘finding’. The international tree ring data bank appears to have been set up in 1994. If the QUB data was generated in the 1970s and 80s, then that is when the active research and data collection and handling was funded. Making use of it for subsequent research does not necessarily mean working with original data, if you are sure of its quality, so it is possible that the data is not compatible with the ITRDB.
This is a great site, and this issue at QUB may seem like all Doug Keenan has made it out to be, but I don’t think it is. The data should be made available, the question is who would pay to have someone convert it. Now THAT is what university research has come to these days.
Another plank is pulled from under the supporters of AGW………….
It is irrelevant to the case to moralise that data ought to belong to the government, therefore it does. That is silly for two reasons: first, ought doesn’t imply is; more importantly, the Act says whatever it says, so that moralising about ownership is neither here nor there.
Nowadays IPR ownership will indeed typically be carefully defined before a project begins, but even that means only that the IPR belongs to whomever has been agreed to be its owner. But 30 years ago in British universities it was not unusual, in my experience, for the ownership of some IPR to be indeterminate, or never really considered, or to rely on a vague understanding, on a convention or just on an assumption. If there was a policy, it would probably have been different for different universities. It may be that QUB owns the IPR for all the data in that collection; I don’t know, but I wouldn’t just assume it.
All this, of course, may have no bearing at all on their misbehaviour over the FOI request – for the University to break the law is shameful. That, it seems to me, is fair game for moralising.
In case it is of interest: when the FOI Act came in, we in the British Universities had a a year (or some such period) to sort ourselves out with a “Data Retention Policy”. On my recommendation the Lab where I worked destroyed much of its “data” because I persuaded my colleagues that we could never expect to have the manpower or money required to dig through our records, edit them and deliver them on the scale and timetable that might have been necessitated by a request under the Act. The destruction was of “data” about teaching, examining and administration; decisions on research data were left to individual academics. How much of that was destroyed too I have no idea. I certainly got rid of quite a lot of mine.
anna v (23:02:38) :
I can understand that particle physicists want to keep the data that they collected private, so as to analyze it. But I do not agree that the data is the property of those physicists. It is the property of the LHC corporation, or of the governments that fund the corporation–whichever is specified in the relevant contracts. And the data owners have granted the physicists the right to use that data in confidence for some limited time (I hope!).
Also, dendrochronology differs from particle physics in that it is not a replicable science. In dendrochronology, you might get lucky and find some old trees that allow constructing a time series of ring widths–or you might not. A big find for the QUB dendrochronology was when one of the chief researchers (Baillie) was on a train, looked out the window, and spotted a bog that looked promising. Trees preserved in that bog turned out to be crucial: without them, the QUB series would have a big hole. The bog has now been excavated, and it might well have been unique; so replicating what QUB did would be extremely difficult and might be impossible.
ralph ellis (00:36:13) :
The tree ring series from QUB appear to be highly reliable. As independent evidence, the rings show a very strong environmental event occurring in 1627 BC [Baillie & Munro, Nature, 1988]. This event also shows up in other series, such as in the south-western USA and in Sweden. (The event is now believed to be due to the volcanic eruption of Aniakchak, Alaska.) The event was spotted in the QUB series after the series was constructed. So that gives very high confidence of reliability back to 1627 BC. There are also comparisons with German series that go back millennia earlier (for details, see the book A Slice Through Time, by M.G.L. Baillie [1995]).
High reliability does not hold for all dendrochronologies (I have written about this elsewhere), but does seem to hold for QUB.
dorlomin (01:29:02) :
Regarding giving QUB “a chance to offer their side of the story”, I would add, to what Charles wrote, that copies of all the correspondences that I had with QUB, as well as with the ICO about QUB, are linked to in the posting. So you can read QUB’s own words to me and summaries of what QUB told the ICO.
Lastly, a few comments have been made that criticize dendroclimatology. I encourage reading the subpage at
http://www.informath.org/apprise/a3900/b910.htm
The discussion there is simplified (as it was originally written for the ICO and ACS), but it at least partially addresses those comments.
anna v (23:02:38) :
Let us examine this point of view.
Suppose that the person funded is an artist.
He may be funded for a specific work, a portrait of the queen, for example. Even in this case, though the portrait will belong to the Queen or government, you cannot ask the artist for his raw data, i.e. how he came up with the portrait. You take the end results.
Umm, Art is Art. Science is Science. Art is 100% individual abstraction, even in group arts, such as symphony orchestras. The raw data is 100% imagination.
That’s my entire problem with “consensus science.” People take tax-funded data, then abstract it (creative process indeed), then don’t even use any scientific method, and then expect us to respect tham as CREATIVE ARSTISTS, inscrutable, offended that we dare “call them” on “their art.”
We’re not paying them to be creative ARTISTS. We’re paying them to be creative SCIENTISTS. BIG DIFFERENCE.
I have Master Degrees in Music (performance) and Math (education). I happen to believe that Math is a CREATIVE ART, and I teach it that way. I encourage use of emotion and imagination, just as my music teaching.
But SCIENCE (the SCIENTIFIC METHOD) is completely differnt. Rigid. Unwavering. Ignorant of concensus. For sure, creativity is still #1, and teams of scientists might come up with a consensus APPROACH to a testable method, but damn, I’m totally flabbergasted and confuzzled at how these self-proclaimed modern Earth prophets can claim that their public existence exempts them from scrutiny and transparency! Your are SCIENTISTS using tax-funded instruments, with tax-funded facilities, and using that data to make tax-funded governments make tax-funded policies affecting the freaking TAX BASE.
Damn…I have to stop.
Chris Knight (22:38:27) :
In the figure of the tree rings – why would a forest fire occur at the end of a rainy season?
Couple of ways. You just had a big rainy season early in the year, after which the precipitation cut off ( Like El Nino’s are want to do in the Pacific NW), there was plenty of ground water to grow excessive ground cover and the dry climate after the El Nino hit ensured plenty of fuel.
What you really want to know is solar proxy to line up with that tree ring data fire. You’ll have a much better chance of determining if you are dealing with a warm/wet year or a cool/wet year.
You also need to check the tree rings of the whole area. A lightning strike on the single tree, or a forest fire?
Tree ring data by itself is not too awfully significant, but like climate, forms a part of the picture. That’s it’s value.
If one is looking for critical year-specific data, one is barking up the wrong tree. Long term patterns is the best fit.
It would be interesting to see the long-term tree ring data from the UK.
Here, we have 2000 year old trees, and not one but several species of them.
Giant Sequoia, Giant Redwood and BristleCone Pine.
But, that is really too bad about science data-sitting bogarts. They are not helping anyone, building moats around knowledge. What were they planning on doing with the publicly-funded data? Did they get lost in analysis paralysis?
“Omigod… look at this noisy stuff…we can’t write a finding on this mess. This is all your fault. We’ll be famous, you said. Now what are we going to do, sell it on E-Bay? That’s it, I’ve had it. I’m outta here, write your own stupid finding”.
timetochooseagain (22:19:37) I agree. There is no way to differentiate warm from wet in dendrology. Especially considering forests try to mantain an optimal temperature for themselves:
http://www.sciencecentric.com/news/article.php?q=08061131
Unless warm climate is also always wet climate, and cold always means dry climate, the rings are fairly meaningless. Further, even if this were the case, how much is the variability of climate temperature dampened by the forests’ attempts to optimize temperature in this proxy record? This has been brought up here and at CA in quite some detail.
ROLLERBALL
Here’s a couple papers from USDA that have some bearing on the use of trees as proxies. Perhaps these will help.
http://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/pdf2006/fpl_2006_leavitt001.pdf
http://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/pdf2005/fpl_2005_ward001.pdf
http://www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/pdf2006/fpl_2006_hunter001.pdf
“Suppose that the person funded is an artist.
He may be funded for a specific work, a portrait of the queen, for example. Even in this case, though the portrait will belong to the Queen or government, you cannot ask the artist for his raw data, i.e. how he came up with the portrait. You take the end results. ”
The problem with this example is that no one will be using the portrait of the Queen to impose their political/social ideology on the rest of us. When that happens, we all better damn well be able to see all the raw data along with how it was used. Results and conclusions also need to be independently verified.
So these people think they own the data because they did the work to gather it and process it while employed by a public institution? They need to get out of academia and into the private sector for awhile. At any private company I’ve ever heard of, including the one I worked at, you don’t own anything you produce on the job, even if you invent something that makes the company millions. If you’re employed at a public institution, any work you produce there is owned by the public. If you want to own your work, do it on your own time with your own money.
Moderator: You might wish to substitute this spell-checked version:
[Done ~ Evan]
Welcome to my world!
I once used the U.S. Truth in Information Act to extract an environmental report from a California state agency. When ordered to produce the report, the agency repeatedly machine-copied and then copied the copies until the report was unreadable and that’s what they sent me.
After a second round of legal proceedings and a year delay, the agency finally forked over a readable copy of report. As I had suspected, conclusions in the document were exact opposites of what the agency had testified those conclusions were in my construction permit hearings. In the meantime, I was out probably $10 million in project delay costs with no “cure” remedy available (government agents effectively wear a “cloak of immunity” to liability lawsuits).
The ethical trap of “the end justifying the means” appears especially attractive to those who have convinced themselves they are saving the world from profiteering “evil doers”. Ironically, the project delayed and almost terminated in this case was probably the most environmentally benign renewable energy plant ever devised by man.
Claude Harvey
Lying?
Covering up, at the very least. It amounts to the same thing.
We saw the same thing with the original hockey-stick data. It took a crowbar to get the info, and when Mann finally released it, it was found to be very seriously flawed. And rather than accepting this fact, Mann dug in his heels and waged a publicity war against those who wanted his data.
This looks like the same-old-same-old runaround with the ultimate objective being to deny, delay, minimize data to the point of access impossible/impractical for those whom they deem might be critical of their conclusions.
It is incomprehensible to me that we are expected to take measures that will negatively affect all of mankind without full access to the data and methods which assert the necessity. In fact, the more urgent the problem and the more farreaching the change, the greater the necessity for open data and methods, one would think.
Point?
The public believed in Mann’s tree-ring conclusions and his hockey stick because he told them what they want to hear at the time, i.e., humans are the cause of the environmental degradation they see advertised in the media. When all this CO2 hoopla results in legislation that causes economic upheaval and unemployment, they’ll lean towards the other point of view, as we are seeing currently. Fads come and fads go.
The argument over what climate data is accurate and who should have access to it will go on forever, but is essentially irrelevant if it doesn’t tell the public what they want to hear. When the temperature anomaly only amounts to .6C degrees, it can hardly be distinguished from background noise. Much ado about nothing.
@dorlomin “what does the Magna Carta have to do with Freedom of Information act (2000)”
I think of the Magna Carta as the first year growth ring in the massive tree that is English Common Law.
RACookPE1978 (22:26:29) :
. . . BUT – Mann goes waaaaaay past this accuracy by ASSUMING that “fat rings” are ONLY due to warmer climates, AND that the degree of “fatness” is DIRECTLY proportional to how warm the climate was at that time,
The Graybill tree ring study that Mann so incredibly overweighted in his hockey stick was intended to show CO2 fertilization in the latter 20th century, which it could conceivably demonstrate, if there were not suspicions that he cherry picked samples from his data set and failed to archive the samples that disagreed with the hypothesis. The Ababneh study ably revealed the flaws in Graybill’s work, producing no hockey stick from a much larger sample set that overlapped the limited Graybill set.
I doubt that Graybill ever thought that it would be (ab)used for warming. Too late to ask.