This paper is to be published on-line on Friday in Physics Letters A Dr. Douglas graciously sent me an advance copy, of which I’m printing some excerpts. Douglas and Knox show some correlations between Top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The authors credit Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. with reviving interest on the subject due to his discussions on using ocean heat content as a metric for climate change.

Abstract
Ocean heat content and Earth’s radiation imbalance
D.H. Douglass and R, S, Knox
Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, PO Box 270171, Rochester, NY 14627-0171, USA
Earth’s radiation imbalance is determined from ocean heat content data and compared with results of direct measurements. Distinct time intervals of alternating positive and negative values are found: 1960–mid-1970s (−0.15), mid-1970s–2000 (+0.15), 2001–present (−0.2 W/m2), and are consistent with prior reports. These climate shifts limit climate predictability.
Introduction:
A strong connection between Earth’s radiative imbalance and the heat content of the oceans has been known for some time (see, e.g., Peixoto and Oort [1]). The heat content has played an important role in recent discussions of climate change, and Pielke [2] has revived interest in its relationship with radiation. Many previous papers have emphasized the importance of heat content of the ocean, particularly the upper ocean, as a diagnostic for changes in the climate system [3–7]. In this work we analyze recent heat content data sets, compare them with corresponding data on radiative imbalance, and point out certain irregularities that can be associated with climate shifts. In Section 2 the conservation of energy is applied to the climate system and the approximations involved in making the radiationheat content connection are discussed. In Section 3 data sources are enumerated. Section 4 gives the radiation imbalance for the Earth’s climate system. In Section 5, climate shifts, radiative imbalances and other climate parameters are discussed. A summary is in Section 6.
Discussion:
…
What is the cause of these climate shifts? We suggest that the low frequency component of the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) may be involved. The PDO index changes from positive to negative near 1960; it remains negative until the mid-1970s where it
becomes positive; then it becomes negative again at about 2000. This mimics the FTOA data. The PDO index is one of the inputs in the synchronization analysis of Swanson and Tsonis [43]. One would like to be able to predict future climate. Such predictions are based upon the present initial conditions and some expectation that changes in the climate state are continuous. However, if there are abrupt changes such as reported by Swanson and Tsonis then this is not possible. These abrupt changes presumably
occur because the existing state is no longer stable and there is a transition to a new stable state.
Summary:
We determine Earth’s radiation imbalance by analyzing three recent independent observational ocean heat content determinations for the period 1950 to 2008 and compare the results with direct measurements by satellites. A large annual term is found in both the implied radiation imbalance and the direct measurements. Its magnitude and phase confirm earlier observations that delivery of the energy to the ocean is rapid, thus eliminating the possibility of long time constants associated with the bulk of the heat transferred. Longer-term averages of the observed imbalance are not only many-fold smaller than theoretically derived values, but also oscillate in sign. These facts are not found among the theoretical
predictions.
Three distinct time intervals of alternating positive and negative imbalance are found: 1960 to the mid 1970s, the mid 1970s to
2000 and 2001 to present. The respective mean values of radiation imbalance are −0.15, +0.15, and −0.2 to −0.3. These observations are consistent with the occurrence of climate shifts at 1960, the mid-1970s, and early 2001 identified by Swanson and Tsonis. Knowledge of the complex atmospheric-ocean physical processes is not involved or required in making these findings. Global surface temperatures as a function of time are also not required to be known.
Heat can be measured in calories, the SI unit, the joule, or BTU’s. Coastal areas tend to have cooler temps due to water’s high heat capacity, and high specific heat as well. The argument of whether heat is actually energy/kinetic energy or is moved by collisions of molecules–their kinetic energy, is almost moot, beacause, heat can and is stored, as evidenced through General Chemistry experiments in college labs, and Phsyical Chemistry labs as well.
Okay backing up for a minute: energy is the capacity to do work, so under normal circumstances heat does no work, but in nature and in heat engines, heat in fact does work, so heat may be considered energy. Work is done to achieve motion against an opposing force. The Earth is an open system, hence why more energy is added to the system by the sun, and why plenty of energy escapes the system to space as well, however, GHG naturally hold in some heat energy which is then transferred due to temperature diefferences, which also cause pressure differences in the atmosphere, which in turn carries heat and changes regional temperatures which influences a wide variety of weather patterns, and condensation/precipitation processes through cloud formations and other global system processes, and teleconnections. We can place advection and convection here, knoing this post needs to get back on the topic of heat and a little bit more about temperature.
Now, Peter Atkins does discuss heat in terms of q, and as the transfer of energy along with work as well, there is still an energy transfer and it can be stored in various mediums with different levels of heat capacity and specific heat capacity. (extensive/intensive properties) Temperature is an intensive property and is used to define the state of the system and determines the direction in which energy flows as heat.
The energy transferred by heat, is stored, so, getting away from a semantic game, we can see that heat transfers energy which is then stored, and since water takes longer to increase in temperature, there is no need for immediate or high magnitude energy loss after energy has transferred to the water.
In fact, winds over a body of water tends to take on the temperature (average kinetic energy) of the water below.
The randoms entropy, (S) heat loss consists of motion and oscillations in total, while temperature is the averaging out of all motions and oscillations.
Now I refer you guys to a different book by Peter Atkins, “Quanta, Matter and Change: A Molecular Approach to Physical Change.” (Also co-authored by Julio de Paula, Ron Friedman).
On Google Books, beginning on page 324, you can get a more sophisticated understanding of global warming. We see that despite the clear cut definition and explanation of heat made by Atkins, heat can be stored and the resutling temperatures will rise; or if you prefer, heat transfers energy which can be stored that rasies temperature. In a closed system it is as cut and dry and two bodies of varying temperature reaching thermal equilibrium, and in an open one this process exists, but in the latter, open system, many other factors influence heat transfer, temperature differences, and heat capacity as well.
Latitude and the resulting height of sun in relation to the Earth, (the orientation of the Earth to the sun at different latitudes and times of day) the aqauatic life density within the the oceans, and so forth will all influence how much heat transfer will occur and how well the oceans will store such energy, in addition to: thermohaline and deeper depth ocean mixing; fresh water has different properties to consider as well.
Well said moderator.
Anthony Joules-per-second
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Noooooo It’s WonderWatts!! come to save us from pedantry and scorn.
🙂
My dear “Anthony Joules-per-second” ….he who knew what Watts are!!
Great!
The Earth is an open system, hence why more energy is added to the system by the sun, and why plenty of energy escapes the system to space as well,
Jacob probably more like a ‘closed’ system since matter transfer can be ignored as a first approximation.
Nasif Nahle (12:01:20) :
Jim Masterson (11:27:40) :
Nasif Nahle (11:08:27) :
Again, Phill said: “it has the units of Watts therefore heat must have the units of Joules.” That is: W = J <<
The antecedent of “it” was “Qdot.” Newton first used the dot notation to indicate the time derivative (he co-invented the Calculus). “Qdot” is a power term. “Q” is an energy term. It’s easy to follow.
Jim
Once again, Phill said: “it has the units of Watts therefore heat must have the units of Joules.” That is: W = J
Once again as Jim said it is Qdot (the ‘it’) that has the units of Watts therefore heat (Q) must have the units of Joules.
The best explanation of thermodynamics available.
wattsupwiththat (12:05:34) :
Nasif you are digging a hole. I suggest you stop digging.
You are right. Some people will never understand. I stop digging.
Perhaps this will help:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070612222659AAEx9un
or this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt
or this:
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_do_you_convert_watts_to_joules
Thank you, Anthony for those links. That’s exactly what I was saying. Thanks again.
And please stop dominating the thread with this discussion.
– Anthony Joules-per-second
Is this for me? It was Leif who brought the discussion to this thread. I only responded to his nonsense. From my side, I am stopping in this moment dominating the thread with this discussion.
I apologize 🙂
– Nasif Nahle “Sensei Sei Rigaku”
tallbloke (13:32:23) :
The best explanation of thermodynamics available.
Absolutely! When I read your post I thought of Flanders & Swan, I didn’t know they were on YouTube, thanks for posting it.
Nasif Nahle (13:44:12) : But…if you are right then there is no heat in the sea. Do you imagine the deep suffering you are going to inflict to NOAA?…their maps will be in black and white from now on..!!
vukcevic (02:31:24) :
Your ’junk science’ schemes look like an “earth dynamo”(a few million years and all that water will turn inte helium) 🙂
Seriously, very interesting. The southern magnetic pole it is now going north, so, will this affect el nino/la nina?
“”” Mark T (17:51:03) :
George E. Smith (16:44:08) :
And Wiki is the final arbiter of all things scientific ?
No, just the easiest reference to get to and likely the most common definition.
Notice what they say; “heat is the process…” clearly their idea of heat is that it is a verb.
Technically, a “process” is a noun, “””
No a process is something that happens; i.e. a verb. If you like, “process” is a noun in the same sense that “verb” is a noun.
The written description of a process may be a noun, but the process itself is verbal; something that happens. I’ve written many “process specifications” You wouldn’t believe what a chore it is to write a process spec document for say a Gallium Arsenide zinc diffusion process.
The most essential feature of following a process specification, is that you do NOTHING unless you are specifically told to do it.
So when doing a QA evaluation of a process spec, you simply follow the spec as written; do each and every thing; when you are told to do it, and never do anything at all that is not specifically written in the process spec.
So if you are told to put 200 ml of 18 megohm DI water into a 500 ml beaker; you better hope that somewhere before hand you were told to get hold of a 500 ml beaker.
But in any case; after finishing the writing of a working process spec; you have a document which specifies the process; but you have no “process”. Nothing happens, until you start running the process by doing the things you are told to do, and nothing that you are not told to do.
So a process is a verb; and verb is a noun; because the word itself is an object, and it isn’t doing anything.
See I told you that English is easy to learn.
Phil. (13:56:59) :
tallbloke (13:32:23) :
The best explanation of thermodynamics available.
Absolutely! When I read your post I thought of Flanders & Swan, I didn’t know they were on YouTube, thanks for posting it.
“And all the arguments in the universe are gonna cooooooooooool down”
“Yeah! That’s entropy man.”
🙂
Nogw (14:10:17) :
Nasif Nahle (13:44:12) : But…if you are right then there is no heat in the sea. Do you imagine the deep suffering you are going to inflict to NOAA?…their maps will be in black and white from now on..!!
It’s not me who is right; it’s all physicists of this world who are right. There is no heat in the sea, but energy.
The colors in maps represent temperature, not heat.
“”” Curiousgeorge (11:43:18) :
@ur momisugly George E. Smith (10:28:02) : RE: Sampling theory.
I’ll second that motion. And also offer a fairly decent primer on such things – http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html . In the Process Analysis section. “””
Well I took a look at your reference, and it seems like it is more related to statistical mathematics than to sampled data systems.
The most fundamental law, in fact the very foundation of sampled data systems is the Nyquist Sampling Theorem (he was I believe a Bell Labs scientist in communication theory.
The whole concept of sampled data systems is that any well behaved continuous function can be completely represented by a discrete set of samples of that continuous function provided (a) the continuous function is a “band limited fucntion” meaning it contains NO signal information above some band limiting frequency; and (b) provided that the continuous function is sampled at a minimum rate of 2B where B is the band liming frequency. Another way of putting that is that you must take at least one sample during each half cycle of the highest signal frequency contained in the continuous function. The samples don’t have to be uniformly spaced but they cannot be further apart than that minimum spacing; so non uniform sampling requires more samples. As a practical matter it would require saving the sample times accurately in order to facilitate reconstruction of the original continuous function from the samples; if the sampling interval is not uniform.
If you do that; you can theoretically recover the complete continuous function from the set of samples. That would let you accurately calculate the value of the function at some intermediate point that was never actually measured. And having reconstructed the original continuous function in some calculable form, one could then proceed to analyse th function such as by computing the average value over some length of the function.
The problem that arises when you violate those two criteria (a & b), the reconstructed function is in error since it now contains noise signals that are fictitious, and totally unremovable since they are now inside the passband of the function.
For example, if the function is band limited to (B) and you sample at a rate (2B), the presence of an out of band signal say at (B+b), upon sampling will generate false (aliassed) signals at a frequency of (B-b) that are not present in the original signal function. In particlular an out of band signal at a frequency of (B+B), ; twice the intended band limit, results in an aliassed signal at (B-B) or zero frequency; and of course the zero frequency signal is simply the average of the continuous function.
Ergo violation of the Nyquist sampling criterion by just a factor of 2 renders even the average value of the function unrecoverable; it will be contaminated by completely unknown noise. And NO statistical prestidigitation will buy you a reprieve from a Nyquist violation. Don’t look to the central Limit theorem, or any other mathematical device; the error is now in band, and of unknown frequency (in most cases) so you can’t even eliminate it (along with some real signal) by narrow band line filters.
Everybody has seen aliassing noise on his TV set, or movie screen; it is what makes the wagon wheels rotate backwards. The wheel spokes generate a signal component that is above half the frame rate ; (the sampling rate), and the reconstructed movie aliasses the spoke frequency to something fake, and the wheels appear to go backwards.
So that’s why I don’t pay attention to GISStemp; it is not a proper representation of the global mean (surface) temperature
Sorry, George, but you are incorrect. This is basic grammar dude!
“A process” is using the word a noun, and more specifically, the phrase “a process” is an object, or a noun substitute, e.g., “The process of using a check requires that you sign your name.” “To process” would be usage as a verb, e.g., “I told you to process those checks!”
And, um, for the record, the word verb is a noun, too. Nouns often are often used to describe actions, but they are still nouns.
If you don’t believe me, look it up in the dictionary.
Mark
Phil,
if it (the Earth) were a closed system entropy (S) would be far higher than it is now; we would be boiling; but perhaps we can look at the atmosphere, as semipermeable, or a partial interface system, but I assure you that this planet is an open system.
tallbloke (04:40:43)
http://i630.photobucket.com/albums/uu21/stroller-2009/temp-hist-80.gif
Try aa instead of R.
(aa anomalies highlight 1940)
Basil, thanks for drawing my attention to this:
Carvalho, L.M.V.; Tsonis, A.A.; Jones, C.; Rocha, H.R.; & Polito, P.S. (2007). Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 14, 723-733.
http://www.uwm.edu/~aatsonis/npg-14-723-2007.pdf
“[…] significant power exists in the 4-7 years band corresponding to ENSO. Such features, however, are broadband features and do not represent periodic signals; they are the result of nonlinear dynamics (e.g., Eccles and Tziperman, 2004). As such they should not be removed from the records.”
This seems consistent with W.W. Hsieh’s observation that post-1950 NH El Nino response has been nonlinear. This gives cause to review carefully the appropriateness of COWL signal removal (cold oceans – warm land).
I tracked this down:
Eccles, F.; & Tziperman, E. (2004). Nonlinear effects on ENSO’s period. Journal of Atmospheric Science 61, 474-482.
http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Eccles-Tziperman-2004.pdf
Tallbloke, the study states that, once ground sequestration of water is taken into account, sea level rise remains fairly constant at 2.45mm per year for the last 80 years. This indicates to me a sea level rise of 2.45mm per year for the years of interest to you 1993-2003. The IPCC states the rate of sea level rise from 1993 to 2003 at about 3.1mm per year. 3.1mm > 2.45mm There is no additional water to account for during this time period. Now, since you have no interest in examining the accuracy of the attribution, and since I have no interest in thermal expansion hypotheses based off flawed attributions, I guess we will agree to disagree.
Leif Svalgaard (09:31:04) :
Nasif Nahle (09:12:51) :
Show me from any book or Wikipedia, if you would prefer it, that internal energy and total available content of energy are undefined.
Vincent was talking about ‘total energy content’, not your ‘total available energy’. The ‘internal energy’ is also a bit undefined: does it include nuclear binding energy, for instance’. What you mean is ‘thermal energy’ also known as ‘heat’ which is the kinetic energy of the random, disorganized motion of the molecules measured by the temperature of the body. And, of course, ‘thermal energy’ or ‘heat’ is not available to do work. Once an energy form has turned into heat it is no longer ‘available’. To make it do work you need to connect it to another reservoir with a lower temperature and it it this other reservoir and its temperature that determine the amount of work you can get done.
One should add that kinetic energy by itself does no work either in orbits around the sun or in free space motion, or as steam ( until it meets a turbine).
steve (20:36:13) :
Tallbloke, the study states that, once ground sequestration of water is taken into account, sea level rise remains fairly constant at 2.45mm per year for the last 80 years.
The ARGO team reports an annual variation of 7 mm of the steric [due to density and temperature change only] sea level. Assuming that that is due to the 90 W/m2 [TOA] variation of TSI, the sensitivity of [steric] sea level to TSI is thus 7/90 = 0.08 mm/(W/m2) . Assuming for the sake of the argument that the 20th century increase of TSI was 1 W/m2 [I think less, but let’s use 1 just for the argument], then the total rise of [the steric] sea level during the 20th century would be just that, 0.08 mm.
Leif Svalgaard (22:34:26) :
Assuming that that is due to the 90 W/m2 [TOA] variation of TSI
This argument is a bit like the “So where’s the missing shilling” brainteaser. It works by distracting attention form the actual situation with plausible sounding statements.
To properly evaluate your argument, we need to consider the difference in surface area occupied by the northern and southern hemiphere’s oceans, and annual variation in cloud cover, plankton density, annual current variation and a host of other things the assumption of an Earth analogous to a lump of coal with puddles on won’t reveal.
Assuming for the sake of the argument that the 20th century increase of TSI was 1 W/m2 [I think less, but let’s use 1 just for the argument], then the total rise of [the steric] sea level during the 20th century would be just that, 0.08 mm.
If the average annual rise is 2.45mm, the annual variation due to earth’s orbital distance from the sun might raise the sea level 7mm, but it only falls back by 4.55mm on average during the period under study (allowing for the sequestration). So the steric component being around 50% of that difference, according to the IPCC, means that the oceans retained a big chunk of energy.
The meltoff from Greenland (about 170Km^3/yr now, 250 then) which is the biggest single non thermic component of sea level rise certainly isn’t going to cover the shortfall if this isn’t the case.
Therefore, the annual change in the steric component of sea level rise during the C20th warnming comprises of around 1.2mm/yr more than the 7mm annual variation due to orbital influence. The logical error arises in assuming that the sea level went up 7mm and back down 7mm. It didn’t.
So nice try Leif, but no cigar. 😉
tallbloke (00:03:13) :
Therefore, the annual change in the steric component of sea level rise during the C20th warnming comprises of around 1.2mm/yr more than the 7mm annual variation due to orbital influence. The logical error arises in assuming that the sea level went up 7mm and back down 7mm. It didn’t.
Hey, I’m trying to learn. The 7 mm comes from Figure 1 of:
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html#steric
I would think that if the 90 W/m2 annual variation is the cause of the 7 mm, then it would take an increase of 90/7*1.2 = 15 W/m2 per year of TSI to explain the 1.2 mm/yr if that rise is due to TSI. And 15 W/m2 per year seems a bit excessive.
Stephen wilde
>The mechanism by which the bulk ocean temperature is, or rather was, set needs some thought given that there seems to be substantial doubt as to how the current amount of energy in the ocean deeps got there in the first place given that downward mixing encounters significant obstacles. Not least the fact that the direction of energy flow is always ocean to air albeit at varying rates. Indeed the net energy flow is always from the bottom of the oceans to the top of the oceans with the temperature of the Earth’s crust below the oceans being the only thing to set an irreducible minimum at any given time<
can someone explain this:
in the deep ocean trenches 6km down temps are recorded typically -1 deg c to +1 deg c and in some places just below the freezing point of salt water, even in the tropics.
The flow rates may be slow .1 km /hour to .4 km hour but given the size of the currents ie 200 km wide x 20 km deep the capacity to transfer energy is large, but may have to move several thousand km before it upwells there wont be much heat involved though !.
Go down any deep mine temperature rises as you go down, water in the abandoned mine shafts take the temp. of the surounding rock.
The smokers and mid ocean ridges pump out pyroclastic flows containing a lot of energy.
There are some studies which show considerable convection activity between deep ocean water and the seabeds .
The oceans perhaps actually help cool the earth, and don't warm it at all.
The earths core temperatures may be sustained in part by nuclear processes + stored heat from its original formation which is gradually being lost to space.