I was poking around the Hadley site and found this interesting announcement. It seems Hadley CRU / Dr. Phil Jones is looking for a candidate to do this project, with the goal of (as I read it) creating some sort of merger between surface data and MSU satellite data to create a wholly new (and one would hope, imporved) MSU data set. Sort of a “ground truth” for Lower Tropo data I suppose. Given Hadley’s latest antics of purging publicly available data, one wonders if we’ll even get to see the results of this. Any candidates out there? – Anthony
Can we create a better Microwave Sounding Unit climate record through the use of high-quality in-situ data?
School: Environmental Sciences
Supervisor(s): Professor Phil Jones; Dr Roland von Glasow
Application Deadline: 30th September 2009
Description:
SELF FUNDED STUDENTS ONLY. The Microwave Sounding Unit and replacement Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit have been operational since late 1978. They are flown on-board the NOAA series of polar-orbiting satellites and more recently the METOP platform. They measure upwelling microwave emissions from Oxygen molecules which are dependent almost entirely upon temperature. This makes their analysis as a fundamental climate data record appealing. However, the measurements have been made with forecast input in mind leading to inevitable and insidious non-climatic influences permeating the record.
The challenge is how best to remove these to retain an unambiguous estimate of the true long-term changes. To date MSU satellite climate datasets of bulk atmospheric temperature profile characteristics have been created solely by comparison between records from individual satellite platforms. Although this is adequate to identify the likely issues, such a two-point intercalibration is mathematically fundamentally ill-posed for the unambiguous removal of non-climatic influences from the time series.
To adequately remove the non-climatic influences requires multiple independent estimates of the true field value to be able to identify which instrument is behaving anomalously and then remove the non-climatic artefacts with minimal uncertainty. Furthermore, this historical approach runs a fundamental risk to the climate record if at any point there is either no satellite or only one satellite measuring, which could plausibly be the case at some point in the future and has been the case for a limited time in the historical record.
We have high quality processed (non-operational) time series available from a number of sites around the world. These sites include stations participating in the ARM program and a number of national observatories and special research sites. Their data cover most, if not all, of the MSU record which begins in 1979. We also have access to a wealth of information from reanalysis feedback files from the more recent reanalyses, and from the global radiosonde network. Taken together these data should be sufficient to allow a fundamentally different approach to be undertaken to MSU dataset development and hence to re-evaluate currently available MSU-based series. At a minimum they should permit a realistic assessment of the range of plausible time series evolution in a way that is well constrained.
Lessons learnt from the work would have the opportunity to significantly inform development of the recently instigated GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN). It would also benefit major upcoming scientific assessments and reanalyses efforts. The student will be expected to spend substantial amounts of time both at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the DWD Lindenberg observatory facility that acts as the lead centre for GRUAN. However, the bulk of their time will be spent at UEA. Financial support will be available for these placements and they will afford a substantial opportunity for the right candidate to develop their skills and expertise.
The candidate will be given training in the critical analysis of disparate observational datasets, statistical analysis techniques, computing techniques as well as standard UEA and Met Office training courses as seen fit by the supervisory panel. The placement in different locations will aid teamwork, transferability of computing skills and problem solving development. The candidate will be expected to provide at least one presentation to a Met Office audience and one to a UEA audience and to attend one high profile conference or workshop. Opportunities may arise to attend further international meetings as funding permits.
References
GCOS, 2003: The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in support of the UNFCCC. Global Climate Observing System GCOS-82, WMO/TD No. 1143, 74 pp
GCOS, 2004: GCOS Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in support of UNFCCC. GCOS-92, WMO/TD 1219, 136 pp
Mears, C.A. and F.J. Wentz, 2005: The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. Science, 309, 1548-1551
Thorne P.W., et al., 2005a: Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures from 1958 to 2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005753
Thorne, P.W., et al., 2005b: Uncertainties in climate trends: Lessons from upper-air temperature records. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1437–1442
Why contaminate pure water with sewage water?
Regarding all the different measures of temperature: If significant warming or cooling is going to happen, the raw data from correctly located stations and/or satellite measurements will show a trend. Time is the factor that will sort it all out. It seems ridiculous that we would need a system that requires manipulation and multiple corrections to give accuracies of 0.1C per decade, especially when the curves are up and down and some decades are cooler than others. Surely the polar bear, the hairy-chested nutscratcher and other creatures of the earth and sea can adapt to such a miniscule change. For God’s sake, lets find a way to archive all the useful raw data before it is totally screwed up.
A true parable: On a geological field party in the Canadian north many years junior assistants took turns staying in camp to cook and do other chores. All but one of them learned to cook reasonably well using a cookbook, including making bread. One made bread that was like bricks. On a rainy day with all in camp, I decided to observe his bread baking technique. He boiled the liquid ingredients, let the yeast grow in a warm cup of sugared water and then combined everything together – thereby killing the yeast. He explained that rather than warming the flour and other dry ingredients in the oven (outdoors -needed to warm the flour), he simply mixed the hot wet ingredients with the cold flour to save a step. I fear cooked data also is easily transformed into unusable bricks.
Sounds to me like Phil Jones just wants to dilute the good satellite data with bad ground station data and get his grubby upward-adjusting hands involved in the satellite data.
This would be another step back for climate science, not a step forward.
I’m expecting Hansen to propose the same sort of “final solution”.
Can’t they just use Steig’s algorithm?
cheers David
Doesn’t it bother anyone that for two posts in row, this blog has confused two separate institutions? The ftp sites discussed in the last post and this proposed PhD topic belong to the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, while the Hadley Centre (part of the UK Met Office situated in Exeter) has nothing to do with either of these things.
The two institutions collaborate on a a single product (the HadCRUT data set – where CRU provides the land data, and the Hadley Centre provides the ocean data), but that doesn’t mean they are the same place or that their names suddenly become synonymous.
Why not just get these details right? It might help with credibility on larger issues.
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VG (07:08:31) : The urban Island Effect is now causing global warming
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-03-2009/0005070351&EDATE=
sounds great!
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Wow! I am completely amazed that a company has figured out how to cash in on global warming!! What will they think of next???
So let me get this straight-Jones is frustrated with the fact that data outside The Wall disagrees with his beliefs, so it must be “corrected”? Oh boy! Somebody call up Christy or Spencer-we’d better warn them…
So they are about to make a mix, a kind of poutpourry of temperatures, combining temperatures from those bad records surface stations, Anthony has detected, with all satellites.A Wonderful mess!. In the end nobody will know what were the temperatures back in the 21st. century.
For the queen to reign upon their ants in the anthill, temperature must be adquately set so as to keep all members working without making any protest or any stop in their endless jobs.
A little something by an English Mathematician by way of an American Entertainment Conglomerate.
I am in awe!!! It seems that Dr. Jones has a problem with some one’s data. This is a wonderful attempt to correct the dysfunctional data.
Simple enough. If the data is depressed the proper mode of treatment is an anti-depressant.
Sounds like cognitive dissonance in action. If you really, really believe in something and there is evidence to the contrary, then that evidence must be in error (and must be corrected). It probably all seems logical to the believers.
Perhaps they or at least we, would prefer to employ a traditional researcher, preferably one of the retired kind, passion all spent, needing to top up his meagre pension, to pull out their archives and make photocopies of the hand written station log books. Just for the record. We dont want them lost, do we?
I know exactly why they want a student and not an established scientist. A student has to earn his/her keep before he/she can beef about fudging. Only established scientists can question methodology. The lab tech/student intern has two choices: do the bidding of the lab owner or hit the road.
I don’t understand the “free help request” aspect of this job posting. These guys are swimming in money. They can afford the finest global warming brains available in the world.
Maybe, they are looking for a gullible PhD wannabe, who will do as directed.
M Simon,
yes the Alice tales are indeed an education and warning to all smart arses 🙂
pedant,
a pathetic whine you have there. How ’bout your side recognizing reality instead of adjusting it?
M. Simon (13:31:53) : And the treatment for repressed data? (CRU anyone?)
Therapy. Someone find Jones a bearded guy with a thick accent! STAT!
Ron de Haan (06:18:50) :
According to this publication we are cooling for the last 50 million years:
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c011572416077970b-pi
Yes, Ron; I’m of the same opinion. But of course with respect to the last 100 million years the Earth has undergone an icehouse period from which we are leaving now. Some people are taking advantage of a completely natural climatic shift that happens each 100 million years. The lowstand phase has finished and the Earth is starting a warmhouse period.
The climatic shift leads to changes of the sea level, although these changes will not be so dramatic as those occurred during previous warmhouses. The overall trend is towards weaker transgression phases.
It is possible that the last warming could have been a short peak into the icehouse period; thus, there is nothing to be worried about.
If you are going to discuss warming the atmosphere, there has to be much more considered than just using Weather Stations for information on the ground.
I design for and create emissions for building development on the surface of the planet. Building Code contribution from meteorology is specific in that we are supposed to reflect solar radiation or the building will be radiated.
Unfortunately we couldn’t see how we were doing, the buildings were signed off as compliant with codes with everyone accepting responsibility for insurance. None of it was or is verified. Here is a link to a Youtube Video I did showing time-lapsed infrared images of buildings being radiated very early in the morning. This is a white and darker building, the darker building was over 150 degrees F on a 77 degree morning. That heats the atmosphere and the homeowner uses emissions to cool a building not insulated for those temperatures. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggCEXIaR7pE
Heat rises and we are not doing a good job on the surface of the planet when shade or paint will address the problem.
IMO there is a case for relooking at the satellite data record. There are a lot of adjustments made to the data to correct for various shifts in orbit, different callibrations on different satellites etc etc. This is an ongoing activity by UAH and RSS but taking an new look from scratch has some merit. However
1 I would have thought that Huntsville was a better sponsor of this not Hadley
2. The need to do the same with the surface temperature record is far more pressing. – Perhaps UAH would like to sponsor such a project!!
more_pedantry (10:17:28) : If you really believe that Hadley, CRU, UEA, have nothing to do with each other you are incredibly naiive.
The main UK agencies involved in research and presentation of global warming matters are the Met office, an agency of the Ministry of Defence and it’s research arm, the Hadley Centre, both located within the new Met office Exeter headquarters. They work very closely with the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, (CRU), where the Tyndall Centre is also based.
In addition to climate modelling, Hadley publishes the monthly averages for the CET and in conjunction with the Met Office produces an annual climate summary for the UK and a global climate summary. This latter is re-badged by the World Meteorological Organisation, (WMO), as a World Climate Report.
Hadley, Tyndall and CRU researchers are major contributors to IPCC and the UK is responsible to date for about a third of the funding for IPCC. Add in the Jackson Institute, (Martin Parry), CR4 at Cambridge, (Terry Barker, also Tyndall), and you have almost a who’s who of the movers and shakers at IPCC.
These institutes cross fertilize with other institutes such as Potsdam and NCAR, the researchers share common data, common agendas and sometimes staff. There is considerable interaction with NGO’s for their political power in pushing the agendas, eg, Tyndall work closely with FoE, and Potsdam have two Greenpeace activists on their research staff.
There is a massive network and you can hardly slide a sheet of paper between them.
didn’t they merge land and ocean data a few years ago? Two entities behaving in different ways and then blended, as they are now proposing with satellite and land data.
For a ‘science’ that is settled, they sure do a lot of ‘research’.
And they don’t turn away any of the billions of dollars that is thrown their way either.
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Curtis Bennett (19:14:04) :
Heat rises and we are not doing a good job on the surface of the planet when shade or paint will address the problem.
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You seem to be ignoring the fact that a dark building in a cold climate can capture heat and use it to warm the interior of the building. There isn’t any reason to spend money only to eliminate the UHI effect. We should, however, use the radiation of the Sun where is is economical.