Leif Svalgaard writes:
Some speculation that solar cycle 25 has already begun:
http://xrt.cfa.harvard.edu/resources/pubs/savc0707.pdf
Graph source: NASA News
This would be stunning, because it suggests that the sun has skipped a solar cycle (#24) . Researchers, three from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the other from Marshall Space Flight Center-NASA, have published a paper that suggests this possibility.
Does a polar coronal hole’s flux emergence follow a Hale-like law?
A. Savcheva1, J.W. Cirtain2, E.E. DeLuca1, L. Golub1
ABSTRACT
Recent increases in spatial and temporal resolution for solar telescopes sensitive to EUV and X-ray radiation have revealed the prevalence of transient jet events in polar coronal holes. Using data collected by the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode, Savcheva et al. (2007) confirmed the observation, made first by the Soft X-ray Telescope on Yohkoh, that some jets exhibit a motion transverse to the jet outflow direction.
The velocity of this transverse motion is, on average, 20 kms−1. The direction of the transverse motion, in combination with the standard reconnection model for jet production (e.g. Shibata et al. 1992), reflects the magnetic polarity orientation of the ephemeral active region at the base of the jet. From this signature, we find that during the present minimum phase of the solar cycle the jet-base ephemeral active regions in the polar coronal holes had a preferred east-west direction, and that this direction reversed during the cycle’s progression through minimum.
In late 2006 and early 2007, the preferred direction was that of the active regions of the coming sunspot cycle (Cycle 24), but in late 2008 and early 2009 the preferred direction has been that of the active regions of sunspot cycle 25. These findings are consistent with the results of Wilson et al. (1988) that there is a high latitude expansion of the solar activity
cycle.
Full paper here:
http://xrt.cfa.harvard.edu/resources/pubs/savc0707.pdf
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the Butcher, I mean this as constructive criticism, your posts appear to lack good debate technique. There are several good texts on the subject. I think you will find any one of them useful.
Mr. Alex (08:49:25) :
> Where is the evidence that they are dying out all
> together? The current cycle is only 12.6 years long, this
> is not something new!
See articles http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/ and http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/239625 and the unpublished paper at http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/livingston-penn_sunspots2.pdf
> How far back do flux measurements go? Proper
> measurements via instrumental recording, not
> reconstrction.
1947
> Sunspots have been counted for 400 years and should
> continue to be counted. In order to be fair, solar minimum
> needs to computed by using sunspot minimum NOT flux.
> Although perhaps a new system (based on flux) which could
> go along with spot counts, should be introduced.
Like I said, sunspots are a half-decent proxy. Bristlecone pines go back a lot further than thermometers, and some people claim that bristlecone pines are a good proxy for thermometers. However, no-one seriously suggests sticking with bristlecone pines as the golden standard for current temperatures.
We make no secret as to the purpose of our Layman’s Spot Count:
To use technology in an appropriate manner to get out in front of the microdot counting problem. Why? Geoff said it above.
The good news is that for 102 years Greenwich measured spots. Others are busy measuing where they left off.
So are we.
told u so
the_Butcher (15:37:15) :
Leif, as a solar physicist didn’t you told us we’d see cycle 24 sunspots going up this summer?
It did, it did, and will do again. These things go in spurts, see page four of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
“Walter Dnes (20:14:59) :
Like I said, sunspots are a half-decent proxy. Bristlecone pines go back a lot further than thermometers, and some people claim that bristlecone pines are a good proxy for thermometers. However, no-one seriously suggests sticking with bristlecone pines as the golden standard for current temperatures.”
True, Bristle cone pines are not the best proxy eventhough Michael Mann clearly finds tree ring proxy highly appropriate (not surprisingly).
However, you cannot really compare pines with the sun. Bristle cone pines are a relatively small part of the Biosphere and currently our knowledge of these trees and their growth habits and functions within the system are in (comparison to the sun’s inner workings) well understood.
The sun is still a mystery, much is not know about spots. This minimum is a very good reason why sunspots need to be analysed more. Sunspots may only be half-decent if we rely on current theory but there is a link between sunspots and certain aspects of solar activity. The true effect on the climate is unknown.
Interesting that you linked that L&P paper which although seemingly convincing has been met with quite a bit of skepticism due to the fact that it uses a short period of data and some have called it a mere statistical analysis. The paper has not yet been updated to 2009 to my knowledge… Any ideas as to when L&P will do so?
“Geoff Sharp (19:22:21) :
A few of us over at solarcycle24.com are maintaining a Layman’s Spot Count. Its purpose is to set some kind of standard to measure spots as well as calibrate the current counting to more reflect how it was done during the last grand minimum.
There has been quite a lot of weeding going on.
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=704 ”
An excellent project which has been requested for a long time by many interested people.
I have read some of the results and they tell quite an interesting story.
Thanks for the effort!
Mr. Alex (08:08:15) :
Interesting that you linked that L&P paper which although seemingly convincing has been met with quite a bit of skepticism due to the fact that it uses a short period of data and some have called it a mere statistical analysis. The paper has not yet been updated to 2009 to my knowledge… Any ideas as to when L&P will do so?
I’m in contact with L&P and get their data in real-time. The data has been updated through the latest spots observed and the trend is holding up; here is the latest data: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
“It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things,” – Leif Svalgaard
I think you meant “infer”, not “deduce”. ;·)
TJA (14:37:00) :
“It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things,” – Leif Svalgaard
I think you meant “infer”, not “deduce”. ;·)
I might ‘infer’, but they seemingly mean ‘deduce’ as they have little or no doubt.
Has the 10.7 flux fallen off a cliff? The stereo behind image shows what looks to be an exremely quit disk for at least the next week or so. Could this be the 2nd or 3rd local minimum in this extended minimum?
Lee (17:56:00) :
Has the 10.7 flux fallen off a cliff? The stereo behind image shows what looks to be an exremely quit disk for at least the next week or so. Could this be the 2nd or 3rd local minimum in this extended minimum?
At 67.8 [at noon] it’s low alright. At 2300UT it was 68.5, so perhaps just a small flutter. The accuracy of the measurement is really not quite as good as to one decimal place, perhaps more +/-0.5. Let’s see tomorrow.
I’d give the vacationing Sun another half rotation or so.
Nothing has been moving faster than a snail’s pace the last 2.75 years. Why ruin it?
“Hi, you’ve reached the office of Sol Activity. I’m not in right now, but if you leave your name & number, I’ll get back to you in a rotation or two.”
Leif Svalgaard (18:31:38) :
At 67.8 [at noon] it’s low alright. At 2300UT it was 68.5, so perhaps just a small flutter. The accuracy of the measurement is really not quite as good as to one decimal place, perhaps more +/-0.5. Let’s see tomorrow.
It went up slightly at noon to 68.1, and 68.4 at 2300UT.
Leif, someone like me, an amateur at his sort of thing, would surmise that most of the 10.7 energy is being generated by that large former sunspot about to disappear in a couple of days. And there seems to be nothing at all coming around from the back to replace it. So to me it seems logical to expect even lower, and consistently lower measurements for the next week or so at least. And this big disturbance should be even weaker when it comes back around in about 17 days.
This looks sort of like last August to me, what would a spotless August at this late date mean? particularly if accompanied by very low T10.7?
Lee (00:01:59) :
Leif, someone like me, an amateur at his sort of thing, would surmise that most of the 10.7 energy is being generated by that large former sunspot about to disappear in a couple of days.
That area only accounts for about 3 flux units [out of 70].
Is that 3 over the minimum base which we are actually fairly near? Or would the base for that area where the spot is be something like 2.8 so it is not significant?
Once the spot disappears in a few days, do we lose all 3 flux units or some thing else like maybe .2 flux units? If it were to drop to 65 that would seem to be at least thought-provoking if cycle 24 is in upswing.
Lee (07:03:08) :
Is that 3 over the minimum base which we are actually fairly near?
It is 3 over the current background which is near 68. I don’t think we’ll go down to 65 as there are already new small ‘ephemeral regions’ from SC24.
Hi Leif, thanks for the informative answers. As I look at the STEREO behind picture, I have noticed that for a week or so the chromosphere (at any rate the glowing region arround the sun) is much closer to the sun on the trailing side and bulges out over active regions. That suggests to me that very calm conditions are coming centered perhaps a week to 10 days from now. Is that too simplistic?
Lee (10:07:46) :
Is that too simplistic?
The images show the corona, and if nothing happens your forecast may be correct, but a new active region can pop up any time…
“So far, this is only a speculation based on very little data and a model of the ‘jets’. It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things, and ‘what did I tell you’-stuff.”
It seems to me that many of the so-called ‘experts’ seem to be exposing themselves as empty suits as it becomes obvious that they know far less than they think that they do. NASA scientists have been calling for the beginning of a new cycle for more than a year and a half now (if my memory is accurate) but we have still to see their predictions validated by reality. Would it hurt if you guys admitted that you did not know all that much and need to learn a lot more?
Looking to the data (Janssen) smoothed sunpotless days versus months beginning of cycle I have the impression that the weaker the cycle the steeper the slope at the inflection point. Concluding from this cycle 24 can go up to 1100 spotless days