By Steven Goddard and Anthony Watts
From Steve: In May, WUWT reported on an apparent error in the Nansen ice extent data. It appears that we were correct, as Nansen has adjusted their 2009 extent data upwards.
The (light red) line below shows their ice extent data from May 2, 2009. It had been too low since their downwards adjustment in December.
But, as of June 5th, the 2009 extent has been corrected (dark red)
Also note that the 2007/2008 lines have not changed, and that ice extent was in the normal range for most of April and May.
From Anthony:
Interest in sea ice extent continues to run high, but there remains differences between different groups such as NSIDC and Cryosphere Today, which have both been plagued with SSMI sensor problems from the DMSP F13 satellite. NANSEN may have had the same issues with SSMI/F13, and if they did, they seem to have gotten them under control, possibly by switching to SSSMI/F17 as NSIDC did.
For example here is a page that NANSEN maintains that shows the differences between the newer AMSRE (that JAXA uses) and the SSMI. One of the images is an AMSR minus SSMI, and it looks like the two different satellites/sensors are in pretty good agreement, with areas along the ice edge (where ice/water boundaries are rapidly changing) showing noise differences where you would expect them to.
There’s another difference though between NANSEN and JAXA, and NSIDC/Cryosphere Today. The NANSEN and JAXA pages don’t have the kind of news updates that we are used to seeing from their USA counterparts. In that respect, we should probably thank NSIDC and CT for their willingness to provide timely updates and especially thanks to NSIDC’s Walt Meier for making guest posts and answering questions here.
Along the same lines, if you look at the press releases and news articles and compare them, NSIDC seems to lead in speaking to the press, followed by CT, with NANSEN/JAXA having very little press interaction.
Interestingly though, NANSEN offers forecasts of arctic sea ice extent here from their TOPAZ model with comparisons to both SSMI and AMSRE data plotted also.
What is interesting is that, at least for this year, the TOPAZ model has been underperforming both in forecasting area and extent. Perhaps this is why we don’t see much in the way of forecasts from NANSEN projected to the media. The model isn’t quite tuned yet. I applaud such caution when it comes to forecasting minimum summer sea ice extent in the spring to the media.
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Oh, wonderful, fresh air, measurements that look correct again. Thank you Anthony.
Has the December 2008 blue line been adjusted? because AFAICT it matches the January 2009 new red line, not the old pink line.
Thanks for this article.
One little typo to correct:
and especially thanks to NSIDC’s Walt Meier fro making guest posts and answering questions here. Change fro to for!
REPLY: fixed thanks – Anthony
So. Is this NSIDC graph correct, or still showing the efects of the bad sensor?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
And here I was thinking I was imagining things after NANSEN made their correction after the F13 failure. It’s good to see them take aggressive steps to correct the record. Now let’s see how the melt proceeds through to September; it should not be as severe as in 2007 and 2008 as there’s now more multi-year ice out there, but only time will tell.
We should point out that the supposed “massively positive” Arctic Icepack melting feedback theory is absolutely proved wrong: ASMR 2007 was very low, but 2008 levels recovered back with more coverage, then 2009 has been at or above ALL previously graphed years.
If “uncovered” water truly led to higher temperatures and more melting, which leads to more melting, this could never have happened.
Then again, EVERY summer ice melts and then refreezes from the edges – so the alarmists’ theory never was valid in the first palce.
Good, but the recent reduction in Arctic Sea Ice has been a wake up call for me. I think the ice has gotten down to the point where it’s pretty broken up in Summer and the currents can sweep a lot of it to lower latitudes and melt it. Thus, there’s a good chance the decline will continue for the next few years.
I don’t know how the polar bears will fare but it’s wonderful news for shippers. Being able to count on a northwest passage opening every September would allow some serious commerce through. Boats too big for the Panama canal could get through.
Like so many aspects of a warmer globe, it is basically helpful. The real flaw in the CAGW argument is the “C”. It isn’t a catastrophe; it’s a wonderful development.
OT: It seems that some Burger King franchisees agree that the melt is off.
‘Global warming is baloney’ signs put the heat on Burger King
* Leo Hickman
* guardian.co.uk, Friday 5 June 2009 19.56 BST
A row between the fast food giant Burger King and one of its major franchise owners has erupted over roadside signs proclaiming “global warming is baloney”.
The franchisee, a Memphis-based company called the Mirabile Investment Corporation (MIC) that owns more than 40 Burger Kings across Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi, has described Burger King as acting “kinda like cockroaches” over the controversy. MIC says it does not believe Burger King has the authority to make it take the signs down.
Full report at the UK Guardian, that bastion of warmists, this one must have them in full ad hom flow. 🙂
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/05/burger-king-global-warming-us
There isn’t any indication that the ice is “breaking up” in an unusual fashion.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
Temperatures in the Arctic have been running below normal.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Hudson Bay is still almost completely frozen over. I’m sure the Polar Bears are just fine. A shipper would have to be a complete idiot to try to get through the ice, which is ranging from 1.5 metres to 5 metres thick.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm
anyone hear any new reports on the results or press from the Catlin Arctic “Survey” lately ?
Seems they have gone quiet.
Arctic ice should simply represent the heat content of the air/oceans surrounding it. Since the content has been flat for the last 5 years or so after increasing for several years then the AVERAGE ice extent should fall within certain bounds that are lower than previous years. In 2007 the winds caused an anomaly that has been recovering ever since. I expect it will return to the average for this decade and stay there unless the heat content changes once again or another anomaly happens.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2009/cam1-2009web.mov
Web Cam MOVIE, “Nautilus 90 North” (i.e., a North Pole Web CAM).
Can really see the sea ice breaking up in this. (NOT!)
Why is it so hard to get people JUST TO LOOK????
How ya doin’, Mr. Romm?
Re Catlin Arctic Adventure
I sent the following e-mail to the “authorities in May
“From: Gordon Ford [mailto:gford1@telus.net]
Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 3:49 PM
To: Welsh, Craig
Cc: info@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Subject: Catlin Arctic Survey
Nunavut Ministry of the Environment
The Catlin Arctic Survey, a science – publicity expedition to the north pole with a mission to document the effect of global warming on arctic ice, is currently located at 85 deg. 19min 11sec N , 124 deg 58min 48 sec W, in Canadian Territory.
Staging for this venture is out of Resolute and Eureka Nunavut.
They have and are establishing fuel dumps in the ice to enable aircraft to reach their position for resupply.
What assurances has the Catlin Arctic Survey provided the Government of Nunavut that the fuel drums (either full or empty) will be recovered so as not to post an environmental hazard or a threat to navigation?
Gordon Ford
Salt Spring Island BC”
And receivd the following reply–
”
From: Welsh, Craig
To: Gordon Ford
Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 1:31 PM
Subject: RE: Catlin Arctic Survey
Mr. Ford…
I’ve consulted with our Environmental Protection division and I’ve been told that it’s best to direct your question to the federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs.
Thank you…
Craig
Craig Welsh
Communications Manager
Department of Environment
Government of Nunavut” —-
I promptly forwarded the lot to DIND
“This request for information was originally sent to Nunavut Environment. I trust that I am not getting the run-around.
Gordon Ford
Salt Spring Island BC” And initiallry received this reply on June 3rd.
“Good morning Gordon,
I have just received your enquiry on the assurance that this Catlin Arctic Survey program will remove the fuel drums required for resupply and that navigation will not be impeded with unrecovered fuel drums. I would be really interested to learn more about this project so that I can do some more legwork to determine if permits have been sought or were even required. I will then speak with the Nunavut Impact Review Board to determine whether this went to an environmental assessment (screening).
If the fuel resupply plans were indeed captured with a land use permit and/ or water licence, there then would be terms and conditions associated with the removal of these fuel storage containers/ associated mitigation measures for spill contingency plans, etc… Being as the only information I have right now is that this fuel storage is on ice and the project appears to be staged at Resolute Bay and Eureka, I would have to check into their project plans and see if this component was properly considered.
As mentioned earlier, I would be very interested in learning more and would welcome the opportunity to talk to you about this on the telephone if you wish.
I will start doing some groundwork and hope to glean some more details from you and others in the near term.
Sincerely,
-Robyn
Robyn Abernethy-Gillis
Manager for Environment Division
Indian and Northern Affairs Canada
P.O. Box 100, ding 918
Iqaluit, Nunavut”
KEY sentence “”Being as the only information I have right now is that this fuel storage is on ice and the project appears to be staged at Resolute Bay and Eureka””
To which I replied
“The Catlin Arctic Survey was, in my opinion, an ill planned publicity stunt
to measure aortic ice and prove that the arctic ice is melting. The survey
established a number of fuel caches on the ice and because they fell well
short of their goals I believe one or more of the fuel caches were never
recovered. Details are available on their web site
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/”
which was followed by this information from Curtis Didham on June 5th, the next day——
Good Day Mr. Ford:
I am e-mailing you to follow up on a concern you had about the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Ice team leaving full/empty fuel drums on the sea ice. I have followed up on your concern and am informing you that all garbage, waste and fuel drums will be returned to Resolute Bay over the next week (weather permitting) for proper disposal via twin otter. If you have any further questions please feel free to contact me.
Curtis Didham
Enforcement Officer
Environmental Enforcement Division
Prairie and Northern Region
969 Qimugjuk Building
P.O. Box 1870
Iqaluit, NU X0A 0H0
Ph: 867-975-4644
Fax: 867-975-4594
Cell: 867-222-1925″
—–As an ex civil servant (BC Ministry ot the Environment) I translate Curtis’s message as “its still out there and if the weather co-operates they may get it out next week (If they can find it))”. If it was left on the ice I suspect it is now (OOPS), unrecoverable.
A reporter needing copy could have real fun with this!!!!
Gordon Ford
I looked, and it’s just as you would expect. Darned cold looking, no melting, icy stuff on the camera, sunny & dreary spells.
Oh, and did I mention it looks awfully cold?
This is all about the polar bear. The thin scraggly, tired beast. That is what has the public mesmerized and concerned about the Artic ice. Something They know very little about. Right now their are millions of people living in sewage and starving, but yet we care about the polar bear. OUR minds are like a big magnetic, which vibrates with the thoughts we hear and entertain the most. No one would care about how open Artic shipping lanes could increase prosperity in this world, they have been told to care about polar bears. No one cares that we have millions starving, living in squalor, in need of simple electricity and water which could be easily provided if we stopped spending Billions on climate and soon, many Billions on Cap/Trade Punishment Tax.
Here is a nice paper about the poor polar bear. Again, the FEAR is all based on computer projections, not the reality of today.
http://kestencgreen.com/polarbears.pdf
They write that polar bear populations are in good shape and some studies have shown that polar bears are hurt by Cold weather. They are not endangered right now, they are only endangered by what they conclude are “unscientific” forecasts based on an “erroneous complex set of assumptions”. They quote an IPCC lead author who states they don’t make predictions, only “what if” scenarios.
I am a nature guy, a state breeding bird atlas regional coordinator, and NO ONE wants to talk about any of this stuff. Almost every single one of them is completely magnetized that the end is near, we are destroying the planet and drastic measures need to be taken, by someone. They don’t even want to look at data, why bother, we have the National Geographic Channel, Audubon, Sierra Club pummeling us monthly in our nature journals with this NONSENSE, and almost all MASS MEDIA just about everyone else piling on! Thanks Anthony for the brain food, but we are using bb guns against their cannons.
Yes, the corrected red line is above the pink line, but it seems to have recently started a a kamikaze dive. This is hard to explain, as the month of May has been cooler than average in Canada. Maybe Russia was warmer.
What will the red line do next? The suspense is unbearable…
I haven’t heard about any prediction on ice-free Noth Pole this summer. But we continue to constantly read and hear about the melting polar icecaps, as it has become an article of faith.
It was very good of NANSEN to correct the record.
Now the record makes sense, what with all that extra cold winter up there
Re Catlin Arctic Adventure
For Gordon Ford
I worked in Eureka in 1979-80. we had a huge pile of empty fuel drums from many years of ‘exporation’ left up there. I believe several years ago it was cleaned up. However, as to the drums left on the ice, at this time of the year up there you get a lot of channel water (as the ice melts) that stretch for long ways and no plane could land safely, so they will remain up there or eventually end up in the Atlantic….
Walt Meier seems to be a good fellow. I hope to see a guest post from him again some day.
Here is the best the “alarmists” can dish out on polar bears. The official Petition to list them as endangered.
http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/species/mammals/polar_bear/pdfs/15976_7338.pdf
Go right to page 20-21, a chart summarizing the 20 distinct bear populations, by region. 16 regions are either stable or unknown, while 2 are increasing and 2 are decreasing. Bottom line: the zzzBest Polar Bear Alarmists come up with a 170 petition, full of gobblygook What If’s, projections and worries, but have absolutely no evidence that the overall polar bear population is threatened. This is the kind of scientific garbage that is ruling the roost these dark days.
Polar Bears are the bottom line why we are TOLD those Artic Ice squiggles mean anything. The mind is a magnet.
But Al Gore said Arctic ice will be completely gone in 5 years (About 2013 based on what I can find about the date he made the announcement). And he has to be right aye, after all, he said he invented the internet, so he must be right?
Bernard: I get the impression that this old satellite is constantly “drifting” now, so they need to constantly “re-adjust”. Would not surprised to see another adjustment (up) pretty soon from NSIDC and possibly NANSEN.
Mark Hugo (18:59:41) :
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2009/cam1-2009web.mov
Web Cam MOVIE, “Nautilus 90 North” (i.e., a North Pole Web CAM).
Can really see the sea ice breaking up in this. (NOT!)
Why is it so hard to get people JUST TO LOOK????
So there was no ice breaking up within a few hundred feet of 87.962 N, 2.305 E last month, wow.
Check out this shot of the Beaufort sea today, rather cloudy over the pole.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T091582215
Gordon Ford (19:31:16) :
Mark Landsbaum, who recently did a nice editorial about Anthony and his Surfacestations project for the Orange County Register, might be interested in this. He has a blog at the Register called Orange Punch and you might consider emailing him the info from your comment. mlandsbaum@ocregister.com
I hope the artic ice will clear. It would open up shipping and save shipping miles. Do not think we will be that fortunate. I live in the midwestern states and my father who is 93 taught us to track rainfall and daily temps. I see we are running 4-5 days a month where we reach average highs or higher. I have seen a sharp decreease in the number of days each summer that reach a hundred. There is another web site where they seem angry and threatening.. Is climate progress where they are pushing for punishment for people that can’t see global warming? so sad. Extra late frosts have damaged a lot of peach crops. Late frost is indeed climate change. It is not warming. One of our church missionaries in alaska said Tok hit 80 below last winter and broke some thermometers. Record freesing in another part of alaska froze some water supplies that are under a 16 foot frost line. It is impossible for rational people to observe record coold and buy the warming quickly and dangerously noise.
I am very well aware of the gang green agenda.