RSS Global Temperature Anomaly also down in May, halving the April value

RSS May 2009-520

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The RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 was published yesterday and has dropped after peaking in January.   The change from April with a value of 0.202°C to May’s 0.09°C is a (∆T) of  -0.112°C.

Recent RSS anomalies

2008 10 0.181

2008 11 0.216

2008 12 0.174

2009 01 0.322

2009 02 0.230

2009 03 0.172

2009 04 0.202

2009 05 0.090

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)

The RSS data is here (RSS Data Version 3.2)

Oddly, a divergence developed in the Feb 09 data between RSS and UAH, and opposite in direction to boot. UAH was 0.347 and RSS was 0.230

 I spoke with Dr. Roy Spencer at the ICCC09 conference (3/10) and asked him about the data divergence.

Here is what he had to say:

“I believe it has to do with the differences in how diurnal variation is tracked and adjusted for.” he said. I noted that Feburary was a month with large diurnal variations.

For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”

It certainly looks like the data sets are converging now, with a scant difference in May of .047°C and that Dr. Spencer was right.

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daoust
June 5, 2009 7:14 pm

I distinctly remember being bombarded with “global warming” hysteria in my high school days of 1991 – 1994. looking at this temperature data, i’m wondering what exactly everyone was so worked up about?

Just Want Results...
June 5, 2009 7:16 pm

“”and that Dr. Spencer was right.””
He probably was—he seems to just want truth.

John B
June 5, 2009 7:23 pm

What’s up with Arctic Roos? The graphs show 2009 at the 1979-2007 average for April and May:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

Jason S.
June 5, 2009 7:28 pm

Thank you Anthoney for such a quick answer.
Question to Skeptic: Doesn’t the name of this website answer your question on the lower number of posts regarding the sea-ice level?
In other words, information worthy of posting on this website generally has the same premise:
* If we are warming – What is up with *fill-in-the-blank*?
* If the MSM and AGM outlets are saying “X”, then wattsupwith”Y”?
Forgive me for pointing out the obvious. From where I’m sitting, there is no crime of omission. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the tone of the contributors to this website are much more open to interpreting ALL of the data than anywhere else I know of.
Tip to Skeptic: Try not to gloat about our planet warming… if that is indeed what is happening. Even the snarkiest anti-AGW comments on here have one common denominator: Disaster Might Not Be Eminent. There is no place for snarkiness on your part. Don’t cut off the nose to spite the face. If your brothers are deceived, shouldn’t your tone reflect less “I’m right” and more “Please listen me – The end is nigh!”???

Evan Jones
Editor
June 5, 2009 7:40 pm

Bottom line: after 30 years of unremitting, industrial strength, human production of CO2 from fossil carbon, global temperatures have risen a whopping 0.1 degree C.
No quite. It’s that much (or half that much, acc. to UAH) above the 1979-2000 average.
Still well below that which was projected.

Steve Hempell
June 5, 2009 7:50 pm

Bob Tisdale (16:40:53) :
Bob, I used Mann’s because, by eyeballing it, it seemed to me to be the most conservative. I also used Lamb/Mitchell – by using a bmp chart of their results. In my previous post I mixed up the two results as I was doing it from memory.
Mann gives: 19th compared to 18th – 62% greater DVI for 19th
20th compared to 18th – 6% less DVI for 20th
Lamb/Mitchell 19th compared to 18th – 86% greater DVI for 19th
20th compared to 18th – 33% less DVI for 20th
Big difference. Who do we trust?

Arthur Glass
June 5, 2009 8:02 pm

File under ‘It’s only weather, not climate’, but for what it’s worth, it is not usual ten miles from Times Square to see people walking around on the 5th of June in heavy jackets, throats wound in scarves.
A nasty, nasty day–in the fifties all afternoon, steady rain with easterly winds gusting to 20 mph, and ‘Real Feel’ temps in the upper forties.
This weather weenie has been loving it!

Arthur Glass
June 5, 2009 8:06 pm

“Disaster Might Not Be Eminent.”
Not all Nobel Peace Prize winners are particularly eminent. Yasir Arafat is a war criminal and Al Gore is windbag mediocrity.

June 5, 2009 8:19 pm

Ron de Haan (17:18:29) :
Snow in the UK?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191089/Its-June–snowing-From-sweltering-shivering-just-week-happen-great-British-summer.html
When I was 15, it snowed in the UK on the 2nd June 1975. That was the first time I had seen snow in June. I never saw it again until June/July 2007.
I saw it again in June/July 2008. It has happened again in 2009! Is it only me, or is there a pattern emerging?…

Lindsay H.
June 5, 2009 8:23 pm

Freeman Dyson’s interview with Yale environment 360 is instructive, do i detect a softening of the AGW absolutism on this site.
http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2151

Arthur Glass
June 5, 2009 8:29 pm

” That’s not a theory…it’s just giving fancy names to observations.”
Well thanks be to God for that! Putting ‘theory’ before the collection of empirical observations is voodoo-do, not science.
More, and more accurate observations, uncontaminated by grand preconceptions would seem, for example, at least from my recollection of the history of the development of astronomy and physics from, say, the fourteenth through the seventeenth centuries, to be the foundation of any scientific discipline.
More accurate observations of the position of heavenly bodies in the fifteenth century, as well as the more accurate mathematical expression enabled by European adoption of Arabic numerals and by early developments in algebra, preceded the work of Brahe, Copernicus and Kepler and then Galileo and Newton.
K.j. Burtt __The Metaphysical Foundations of Modern Science__- an indispensible masterpiece!

deadwood
June 5, 2009 8:32 pm

John B (19:23:10) :
What’s up with Arctic Roos? The graphs show 2009 at the 1979-2007 average for April and May:

But now its dropping and may, if it follows the thin ice trend of 2008, result in an ice free arctic later this summer – Just in time for Cap’n Trade (Arghh!).(/sarc)

June 5, 2009 8:39 pm

Global warming alarmism reaches a new high…err…low.
Did global warming help bring down Air France flight 447?
As the investigation continues as to what brought down the French airliner over the Atlantic Ocean with 228 people on board, a Russian climatologist believes global warming played a significant part. <—-opening paragraph.
*(This is not a fake article)

June 5, 2009 8:46 pm

Always great to read through the comments and observe the process.
But on the theory that you get more of what you pay for/give attention to, Y O Y the troll-feeding? Darn things are worser than seagullz.
Science will out, and hey, read the agriculture pages: yields, estimates, reviews of the season – it’s all in there if you’re looking for Troof. And it’s done by and for folks with real skin in the game – their livelihoods depend on correct choices of variety, planting time, treatment over the growing season, and harvest time.
Plants, as has been my refrain here for some years, don’t lie, aren’t swayed by the person they last read or the one next to them in the crowd, and don’t react to research funding scrum-screwing. They do, however, react exquisitely to sun, temperature and what they’re growing in. Listen to them….
After all, oh, 200 years ago, it was Herschel who noted the inverse correlation between wheat prices and sunspot counts. Plants!

ian
June 5, 2009 9:05 pm

What I find somewhat disturbing is that believers in the CAGW hypothesis need (want) temperatures to rise, arctic ice melt etc. so as to prove the validity of CAGW. If the anomaly increases to, say, 0.3 next month you can almost picture them letting out a collective sigh of relief. I say this as a former extremely vitriolic believer in an oncoming climate catastrophe. From personal experience, holding onto any belief too tightly will often cause one to make an arse out of oneself.

June 5, 2009 9:14 pm

Arthur Glass (20:29:13) :
” That’s not a theory…it’s just giving fancy names to observations.”
Well thanks be to God for that! Putting ‘theory’ before the collection of empirical observations is voodoo-do, not science.

This is a common misconception about the meaning of ‘theory’ as scientists use the word. It does NOT mean that something is vague and hypothetical and ill-founded, ‘just a theory’. On the contrary, a ‘theory’ is something that expresses the truth given by a great mass of observations. E.g. instead of extensive tables of planetary positions they can be calculated from Newton’s theory of gravitation that can be written on a single page of text. E.g. instead of huge tables of empirical data on spectral lines of chemical elements, these wavelengths can be calculated from quantum theory, etc. A ‘theory’ of a phenomenon is but a shorthand for all our observations of that phenomenon up to now.

Gary Crough
June 5, 2009 9:16 pm

Anthony: Thanks for creating and posting these graphs. As a group, they are the most useful global temperature information on the web.
skeptic: This information is as far from “cherry-picked” as one can get. The timeframe used is going to impact the look of the data. At one extreme we could start with the creation of the earth … 4.5 billion years ago. Actually the earth is much older … 4.5 billion years is when the earth cooled enough for the 1st rocks to solidify. The earth has been cooling since then. In the past billion years the earth has been in an ice age more often than not. Until satellite reporting began (Jan 1979) the accuracy of global temperature measurements was a constant debate. So what better presentation of factual information on global temperature could be provided than a graphic showing the global temperature reported by both agencies gathering satellite data? And graphs on temperature from agencies using land-based data as well? What more could you possibly ask? What could be done to be fairer?
Deniers like to use the 1998 spike (an El Nino event) as their starting point and claim global temperature has fallen over the past decade. But that is not what Anthony is doing … all satellite data is shown. Look at the graph … draw your own conclusions. Anthony did not make up the data he is just making it easily available to people like me.
You are right NSIDC does show a decline in arctic ice that approaches the worst recent year: 2007. But NSIDC is not the only agency reporting arctic ice extent. Here are links to both reports:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Last time there was a huge discrepancy between these two sites it turned out NSIDC lost an area of ice about the size of CA. The arctic-roos site indicates 2009 has more ice than 2007 and 2008 … and is within “normal” (a standard deviation) for the past 30 years. Both sites can’t be correct. Let’s see how this washes out.
Filipe: “What’s the baseline period for the anomaly? It’s not indicated in the plot.” I have the same question. I seem to recall that GISS uses 1950-1980 but what about RSS and UAH?

June 5, 2009 9:44 pm

Mr Hempell said: (16:17:29) :
“One of my favourite things to do is to determine the area under the curve for the TSI chart”
Oh Mr Hempell, there is a huge range of hobbies available to you. Model-making, sports, even crochet (I only mention crochet because my sister wrote the best selling beginner’s guide to crochet over here in England).
Surely you can find a better thing to do that burrow under curves. But I am a fair and broad-minded fellow, each to his own. If the under-curve world does it for you I won’t argue.

An Inquirer
June 5, 2009 9:54 pm

RE: skeptic (12:20:59) :
The declaration that we are in the warmest decade ever is of little credibility given historic periods such as the MWP and the Roman Optimum and . . . . Furthermore, it is of little relevance in the last two centuries given that measurements started as the world started to recover from the Little Ice Age. Most observers would give you that we have trended upwards since the end of the LIA, but I am not so sure that the 140 years of HadCrut estimates are reliable – certainly the negative climatic implications of hot weather was much more severe in the 1930s than we are currently experiencing. Yet, perhaps the GMT is higher now the thirties, but I certainly would encourage you to get a handle on what the GMT is, the quality of the data, and the issues surrounding the estimates. Moreover, the GMT is basically back to what it was in 1980, and there is nothing alarming about the trend in the last 30 years for which we have three or four sources of relatively reliable estimates; in fact the record of the last 30 years suggest the GMT is driven more by oscillations than by CO2 concentrations.
And if GMT in the coming years returns to the high of eleven years ago, that still does not set off alarm bells. You mention Arctic ice for which we may or not have reliable current estimates given problems with certain satellites; the fortunes of Arctic ice depend more on winds, clouds, Asian pollution, currents and the PDO/AMO rather than the question if the GMT anomaly gets back up to .8.

June 5, 2009 10:06 pm

Dr. Svalgaard, with all due respect, re defining “theory”. That word can mean:
1. A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena,
2. An assumption based on limited information or knowledge; a conjecture.
Neither of those definitions uses the word “truth.” Truth is an elusive thing. Many scientific theories have been proved false, or at least wanting, even Newton’s Laws of Gravity (see Einstein’s Theory of Relativity).
Thomas Kuhn observed that the scientific community operates on a set of received assumptions. Normal science endeavors to defend those assumptions. But sometimes anomalies (empirical evidence at odds with traditional assumptions) arise to such an extent that the traditional assumptions (old paradigm theories) are shattered. When that happens new theories (new paradigms) must be formulated.
In the case of AGW theory, that paradigm is closer to #2 above than to #1. The anomalies are huge, as has been observed by numerous contributors to WUWT (and elsewhere). You can call the anomalies anecdotal, or weather instead of climate, but the increasing body of anomalies is rapidly swamping a rather poorly formulated (highly conjectural) theory.

Just Want Results...
June 5, 2009 10:59 pm

“” Jimmy Haigh (20:19:01) :
When I was 15, it snowed in the UK on the 2nd June 1975. That was the first time I had seen snow in June. I never saw it again until June/July 2007.
I saw it again in June/July 2008. It has happened again in 2009! Is it only me, or is there a pattern emerging?…””
This might not stop politicians from shouting global warming. But it will stop every day people from listening to them. 🙂
I like snow. But crops don’t.

Just Want Results...
June 5, 2009 11:01 pm

“” Mike D. (22:06:28) :…observed by numerous contributors to WUWT ”
Aren’t you glad WUWT exists? I am!

UKIP
June 5, 2009 11:04 pm

Peter Herndeen,
“Fact is the Met office is doing very well with it’s forecasts, that the rain atm is very localised (as in any high hills snow). Readers here need to know that and not be inadvertently misled.
Wrt the summer just started, it looks as if another (we’ve all ready seen warm weather this June) warm spell is on the card by next weekend. My advice is to not make it so obvious you’re getting you retaliation in early while we’re between hot spells ;).”
The Met Office has had their last five seasonal forecasts completely busted by the weather, as they were too reliant on their AGW models. Even their global temeprature forecast for this year is looking like it has been severely over-egged as per usual. You’d have thought they would have learnt from always being on the high side in previous years wouldn’t you? Maybe not.
As for the rain and snow being localised I suggest readers here consult the latest radar for the UK at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar (One of the few useful services the taxpayer funded Met Office does serve to its public). Localised I think not. Retract.
“In between hot spells”? The last weekend saw temperatures in the low to mid 20s (low 70s F) which is not a hot spell. Slightly warmer than average maybe, but nothing unusual. What is unusual however is the coldest June day for many decades experienced in North East England yesterday, with a maximum of 44F and a minimum of 34F which is January type temperatures.
I suggest you wake up from your AGW induced slumber and start to learn a bit about the Uk weather.

Richard111
June 5, 2009 11:49 pm

Outside temperature on my window thermometer read 5C (41F) at 6:00am this morning, June 6. And this is in South West Wales!
O/T… I wonder why the North Pole Webcam has stopped updating?
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/webphotos/noaa1.jpg
Is there something they don’t want us to see?

Andrew P
June 6, 2009 12:08 am

Peter Hearnden (14:03:03) :
Fact is the Met office is doing very well with it’s forecasts, that the rain atm is very localised (as in any high hills snow). Readers here need to know that and not be inadvertently misled.
Wrt the summer just started, it looks as if another (we’ve all ready seen warm weather this June) warm spell is on the card by next weekend. My advice is to not make it so obvious you’re getting you retaliation in early while we’re between hot spells ;).

Peter, I agree that last week’s warm spell was genuine (and very welcome), and also that snow, at least on the Scottish mountains in June (even July) is not that uncommon. But yesterday’s snow was much more widespread (and low-level) than that, as can be confirmed by the report in today’s Glasgow Herald: http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2512765.0.From_hotspot_to_winter_wonderland_in_a_week.php
The fact is that we (in the Southern Highlands) had a long cold winter, (more akin to the average in the 1980;s than 21st Century):
first low-level snow October 28th, which stayed on the frozen ground for weeks, and apart from the cloud-covered mild week between Dec 23rd and Jan 2nd, the ground remained frozen/snow covered until Feb 10th. Then another mild (i.e above 0’C) week, until a further cold with ice/snow covered ground until the first or second week of March. April had a couple of warm and sunny weeks (not unusual), but until the warm spell last week (late May/early June) May has been colder than usual (with lots of new snow on the mountains early in the month), and just now people are still lighting fires or keeping the central heating on, despite the 20 hours of daylight at this time of year. And I don’t recall any warm or even mild days at all where the daytime temperature got into double figures (C), unlike many of the winters of the 1990’s-2000’s when south-west winds and even some north winds were sometimes above 12 or 13’C.
The point being that the Met Office’s Winter 08-09 forecast was for “a milder than average winter” and they got it completely wrong (again), at least for the northern half of the UK. To be fair to the Met Office, they are fairly accurate with the 24 hours and 2-3 day forecasts, but they consistently underestimate the minimum temeratures for Highland Perthshire, which on a typical winter’s day are between 3 and 5’C colder than in Perth itself (which is only 25 miles to the south). I suspect that their computer models don’t factor in the semi-permanent snow cover on the surrounding hills, and possibly the inability of the sun to penetrate into the deeper straths and glens, (not that the sun has that much warmth in mid-winter anyway).
p.s. I read on here that they were planting Spring wheat in fields still covered in snow in Canada recently – can anyone confrim this?