During the the last week, NSIDC graphs of arctic sea ice extent have been dropping so steeply that many have called them into question. Finally NSIDC ended the daily updates and have left the last “good” image of May 21st in place in the web folder, but have placed an “out of order” sign on the website:

As we first pointed out to NSIDC back on 2/18/09 (even though it “wasn’t worth blogging about”) the sensor has been on the fritz for quite awhile, calling the whole arctic sea ice series into question. From their most recent announcement, it looks like that it is now “DOA”:

Here’s what they say now.From NSIDC’s web site:
Update: May 26 2009 The daily image update has been temporarily suspended because of large areas of missing data in the past week. NSIDC currently gets its data from the SSM/I sensor on the DMSP F13 satellite, which is nearing the end of its operational life and experiencing intermittent problems.
NSIDC has been working on a transition to a newer sensor on the F17 satellite for several months. At this time, we have more than a year of data from F17, which we are using to intercalibrate with F13 data. The F17 data are not yet available for near-real-time updates. We will resume posting daily updates as soon as possible, either from F13, if the present problem is resolved, or from F17, when the transition is complete.
It doesn’t look promising to get any usable data for the last 6 months or more, since it clearly has been corrupted by the sensor issues.
Meanwhile the AMSR-E on the Aqua satellite chugs right along on JAXA:

From NANSEN, here is a map showing differences between AMSR and SSMI. There are some huge chunks missing.

See the source image page here
(h/t to Fred Nieuwenhuis for the link)
Personally I think it was folly for NSIDC to try to use different channels on the DMSP F13 satellite to nurse the dataset along, as we’ve seen it is not just the single channel on SSM/I sensor that has had problems.
Transitioning to the DMSP F17 satellite “may” be a plan, but the AQUA satellite and teh AMSR-E package seems to be quite reliable and with a number of years of life ahead. It is also used by many other agencies to reliably gauge sea-ice.
IMHO, NSIDC is doing themselves no favors by sticking with the DMSP SSM/I satellite platform package. The science world has moved on with AQUA’s AMSR-E, and it is time for NSIDC to move on as well.
Otherwise, they are going to be “has beens” using older technology. Get with the program guys. You need good supporting data so incoming director Mark Serreze can give us his fabulous forecasts and media soundbites that don’t seem to come true.
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Ric Werme (19:35:32) :
the originals for the comparison are at
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20090525.jpg
go to http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20090507.jpg
and compare. It is the same picture. It stopped updating after May 7
I have enough popcorn to last until mid September.
Why isn’t the other said jumping on on some sort of convergence bandwagon right now? It don’t hear them….I think I hear Ben Stein…”Buehler…”
It is always interesting to look at the satellite estimates of sea ice and compare the picture to the real world. In May 25 satellites estimate that there is significant amounts of sea ice left in the Baltic. I live some 20 km to the west of Helsinki in the archipelago and the last ice was gone in this area more than one month ago, satellites still show ice (50%?). What is the reason for these problems? Looking at earlier years it seems like ice is detected by satellites in the area still in July when the sea surface temperature may reach 20 deg C. In this case the ice extent is clearly over estimated. How large are the errors generally? I have a strong feeling that algae growth during the summer months could be a reason for these errors. Colored mats of algae could be interpreted as ice by satellites.
http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=9886&l=sv
So……………it appears that NSIDC scientists prefer to use faulty instruments because it apparently gives them the data they want.
How revealing!
No engineer worth their salt would be happy with such a situation.
Question, if this instrument is coming to the end of its working life, which they must have known about without doubt, with all that money & brainpower, didn’t somebody suggest planning a new instrument on a new satellite ready to take over if so when they launched the former, so that a relatively smooth changeover could be effected?
If there has been a failure in the data collection because of a fault, or other in service issue, how do we/they know that a) it’s been giving correct data from the start, b) when it started going wrong, or was it because the data wasn’t what was wanted/expected? c) does this place a question mark over the accuracy of the previous data already published? d) how accurate & reliable are the other data sources if ice extent/area, etc? e) does this mean that Arctic sea-ice cannot be reliably measured in the meantime, posing questions about any claims made for either ice increase or decrease ready for the Copenhagen agenda? I am well aware as are most here that all institutions have their professional & personal pride & wouldn’t want to concede that their methods of measurement are suspect compared to others.
Does this still mean WAGTD, well at least not just yet?
BTW, here in south-western UK it’s raining! The MO got this bit right. Friday forecast to be hot & sunny – will keep y’all posted!
OT: Drudge Climate Posts:
Burping of the lambs blows roast off menu
_Tomatoes and booze are off the AGW Alarmist menu
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6350237.ece
Plus: New ABC show mocks greens and cabon footprints
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203771904574180442354457688.html
Nansen has removed all data from last 2 weeks (sent a very polite email advising of situation erlier).
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Ice looks nice and normal. Looking at the actual 25/05/09 at CT graphs, my bet its actually crossed the black line mayday!
Sept 21, 2025 – from my blog
I have just been fined 20 carbon credits by the EPA for not painting my root white – they suggest I hold my breath for 2 weeks starting in November, eating only celery since they cost no carbon credits, or hold Fifo under water until he stops producing toxic output ( formerly known as c02 ).
Another comparison this time with SST (Spot the differences!)
here’s the UNISYS one
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
and here’s the NOAA one
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.25.2009.gif
same dates 25/05/09
Been watching this comedy of errors unfold (again) for the past week or so.
Here’s the latest graph from NANSEN:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Wonder how long it’ll be before they notice they have a problem – when their data shows the Arctic ice-free?
“The science world has moved on with AQUA’s AMSR-E, and it is time for NSIDC to move on as well.”
This commonsensical suggestion has been made before. In response, Dr. Walt Meier defended their continuing use of the current platform. Without repeating the full explanation, it came down to comparing apples and oranges. Well, to my way of thinking, when the apples are rotten, it’s time to switch your diet to oranges. Besides, what will NSIDC do if the DMSP-series satellites do their own upgrade?
Then again, it may not be the quality of instrumentation that’s driving their decision, but the fact that the program has been in existence since the mid-60’s, with the start of the current F-series of satellites beginning in September 1976 (as a small sample, F13 launched Mar 95, F14 – Apr 97, F15 – Dec 99, F16 – Oct 03, & F17 – Nov 06). From the dates, I would surmise that a new satellite is about due (F18?), though I doubt they’d start using its data for a number of years. The quality of the instrumentation may be changing and improving with each launch and it may take them a year or two to intercalibrate satellites.
Another factor that may be driving their decision might be that Aqua is a single satellite. What if it fails? Is that program set up to keep replacing the satellite every 10-20 years? Aqua is but one satellite in a series of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites.
http://aqua.nasa.gov/science/formation_flying.php
So, for NSIDC, the choice is not so simple. Stick with the DMSP program which has a long history and will probably keep sending up satellites for the foreseeable future, or switch to the newer, higher quality EOS program and hope it too becomes a long-running program.
Decisions, decisions…
Whoops – I see NANSEN just cleaned up their act and scrubbed all that melt off their graphs. Should have done a screen shot for the humor(?) of their gross error on display.
Hi, one Oxford University professor who designs satellites – his last blew up on the launch pad, a replacement should be launched this year – specifically to measure ice at the poles and sea temperature said in a recent interview that all satellite measurements should be taken with a pinch of salt because all are too remote from what they are supposed to be measuring.
Me thinks that we are all being led up the garden path by having too much data that most likely doesnt really matter one way or the other, the planet will plod on with or without us.
It so happens that according to the latest report by the British Antarctica Survey that Antarctica has been growing sea ice at the rate of 100,000 sqkms since 1970 and one bright spark has commented that whilst this maybe true we need to be aware that the southern ocean temperature has been rising faster than mose at 0.17c a decade or 100 years or whatever and gives a detailed account of why this is happening, my response is so what?
According to God (Al Gore) the scare is that when sea levels rise because the ice caps melt we are all going to drown, well if warming causes the ice caps to grow in size then clearly AGW means we wont drown so what is all the fuss about?
Extract from article based on the premise better do something that nothing”The problem is that the solutions being offered don’t provide any detectable relief from this so-called catastrophe. Congress is now discussing an 80% reduction in U.S. greenhouse emissions by 2050. That’s basically the equivalent of building 1,000 new nuclear power plants all operating by 2020. Now I’m all in favor of nuclear energy, but that would affect the global temperature by only seven-hundredths of a degree by 2050 and fifteen hundredths by 2100.” We wouldnt even notice it!!
So basically we can spend as many billions as you like and it wont make any flippin difference so why not sit back take a few beers and what AGW cause the ice caps to grow just to spite Al Gore.
What causes me most concern is the fact than when Al Gore pretended to be a politician no one took him seriously so how can it be that when he pretends to be a scientist they do?
David Wells
Correction to earlier submission “100,000 sqkms” per decade, and “watch” AGW cause the ice caps to grow!
Sorry
There has been info added to the sea ice page that explains the tick up and also that they are/will be trying a new algorithm to smooth the blip
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
————-
Please stop bringing the ice free bit up – It was never said, even in the headline.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779-north-pole-could-be-ice-free-in-2008.html
North Pole could be ice free in 2008
…
“There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”. What is worrying, though, is the fact that multi-year ice – the stuff that doesn’t melt in the summer – is not piling up as fast as Arctic ice generally is melting.
It is for example true to say “there is the spectre – the possibility that you could win the lottery this weekend. It does not mean you will!
Ric Werme
I see that you are entering the date data directly in the URL. I don’t think the web site is responding correctly. If you look at the date drop-downs above each image it compares 25 May 2008 (left) with 25 May 1979 (right). The drop downs do not give you the ability to select 2009 at all! (Caveat – that’s what appears on my PC using Firefox browser)
Now this is all interesting stuff, but what point were you trying to make?
How come on the AMSR-E graph it appears that every year in the data set has a slight jump at the same time right around June 1st?
I’ve also been puzzled for quite some time about ice in the middle of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. And not only this year but also as median. End of May?! No way! As it has such bizarre mistakes in the area I know so well and can observe with my own eyes, it really begs a question about the accuracy of the method in the areas I know nothing about…
BTW, here are some past links to the sensor problem. You’d think that the NSIDC would be better prepared for the current state of affairs, they’ve had three months to get ready for it and now have five months of more questionable than usual data. I think Cryosphere Today is just two scientists and maybe some parttime student help, I’m not surprised they’re on a par with the NSIDC.
NSIDC’s Walt Meier responds on the sensor issue 1 03 2009
Sea Ice Sensor Degradation Hits Cryosphere Today 20 02 2009
NSIDC: satellite sea ice sensor has “catastrophic failure” – data faulty for the last 45 or more days 18 02 2009
Errors in publicly presented data – Worth blogging about? 16 02 2009
NSIDC makes a big sea ice extent jump – but why? 16 02 2009
What is an Al Gore rhythm?
I think it must be a two-step.
Please totally ignore my earlier comment – was having a senior moment and completely misinterpreted Ric’s comments. I’m getting too sensitive – I thought he was saying the actual state of the ice was awful rather than the representation of it.
First the Catlin Survey Team and now this (the NSIDC demise).
I filled my empty days clicking on these sites to assure myself that human folly and intrigue were readily at hand (or fingertip at any rate.)
Ah well, there’s always C-Span.
Alan the Brit (01:50:41) :
Question, if this instrument is coming to the end of its working life, which they must have known about without doubt, with all that money & brainpower, didn’t somebody suggest planning a new instrument on a new satellite ready to take over if so when they launched the former, so that a relatively smooth changeover could be effected?
That’s why certain organizations like using SSMI, because it’s launched on a series of satellites with overlap for consistency checking. When F13 started to deteriorate they switched to F15 unfortunately that developed a problem so they had to switch back to F13 while trying to get F17 on-stream and calibrated.
“As of 02 June 2008, NSIDC has switched its SSM/I processing stream from the DMSP-F13 satellite to the DMSP-F15 satellite. This is due to a failing recorder on F13 which has been operational since 1995 and is expected to be decommissioned in the near future. For data continuity, F15 data has been acquired back to 01 January 2008. F13 products since 01 January 2008 remain and will continue to be produced until data quality degrades to an unusable level or the satellite is out of service.”
“On 16 February 2009, NSIDC noticed significant problems with the NRT brightness temperature product. Upon investigation, the problem was found to be due to an issue with the DMSP F15 SSM/I 22 GHz frequency brightness temperature fields. The problem began around 1 January 2009 and gradually worsened until it became noticeable in the sea ice product (NRT DMSP SSM/I Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations). NSIDC is working to correct the issue and provide reliable NRT brightness temperature data. In the meantime, F15 data since 1 January 2009 should not be used.”
” NSIDC has been working on a transition to a newer sensor on the F17 satellite for several months. At this time, we have more than a year of data from F17, which we are using to intercalibrate with F13 data. The F17 data are not yet available for near-real-time updates. We will resume posting daily updates as soon as possible, either from F13, if the present problem is resolved, or from F17, when the transition is complete.”
If there has been a failure in the data collection because of a fault, or other in service issue, how do we/they know that a) it’s been giving correct data from the start, b) when it started going wrong, or was it because the data wasn’t what was wanted/expected? c) does this place a question mark over the accuracy of the previous data already published? d) how accurate & reliable are the other data sources if ice extent/area, etc? e) does this mean that Arctic sea-ice cannot be reliably measured in the meantime, posing questions about any claims made for either ice increase or decrease ready for the Copenhagen agenda? I am well aware as are most here that all institutions have their professional & personal pride & wouldn’t want to concede that their methods of measurement are suspect compared to others.
Cross checking between the different satellites (with different sensor designs as well) allows problems to be spotted, also real-time products are more susceptible whereas corrections for missing swathes can be corrected after the next path when working off-line.
From another part of the NSIDC, it looks like they’re not having any (obvious) problems with the data from the Antarctic. I wonder which satellite they’re using there:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/daily.html
This is a request for commentary (RFC).
I have kept close track of surface pressure patterns through the years as I have real interests in SW Florida. I use the tropical sat images at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/, specifically, the GFS image loop just to maintain consistantcy.
Here is the question. The Bermuda and Pacific Highs seem very disoganized this year. Can any of you Met. gurus out there verify this to be true. And, if so, what might account for it?
This site is treasure Anthony. Many thanks.
Sven (05:11:35) :
I’ve also been puzzled for quite some time about ice in the middle of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. And not only this year but also as median. End of May?! No way! As it has such bizarre mistakes in the area I know so well and can observe with my own eyes, it really begs a question about the accuracy of the method in the areas I know nothing about…
I suggest you change the site you’re looking at, no such ice shows up on the JAXA, CT images, OSISAF or Polarview images.