You have to wonder- what were these guys thinking? The only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board…or maybe something else?
MIT’s “wheel of climate” – image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT
The Greenhouse Gamble: Ronald Prinn, director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, and his group have revised their model that shows how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century without substantial policy change. Standing with the group’s “roulette wheel” are, from left to right, Mort Webster, professor in the Engineering Systems Division; Adam Schlosser, principal research scientist at the Center for Global Change Science; Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry; and Sergey Paltsev, principal research scientist, MIT Energy Initiative.
Popular Science writes:
It’s time to call your bookie, because the line on global warming is in. A new paper from MIT breaks down the odds of different outcomes from global warming, based on whether governments take action now or later. And if you’re taking that action, bet on “government getting involved” to beat the spread, as last week an important climate change bill made it out committee in the House of Representatives.
The bill, named the American Clean Energy and Security Act, would institute a cap-and-trade program, and reduce carbon emissions by 17 percent over fifteen years. The plan also calls for increased research into alternative energy, and provides $750 billion in subsidies to consumers to help offset the increase in energy cost the bill would cause.
See the compete article here
With that kind of cash payout, and since an MIT odds calculating machine is involved in making the modeling forecasts over 400 model runs, maybe this would be a more appropriate prop for the MIT photo op:
“Why did you lend it out to those jerks in the local school? They must have loaded it to stick in that mean sceptic blue sector every time.”
John Galt (14:19:43) :For that to be true atmosphere should have the capacity of “holding” heat as water, however its volumetric heat capacity it is 3227 less than that of water. Check the volumetric heat capacities of both.
Any heated gas in the atmosphere transfers its heat by convection. The world it is not flat and covered with a bowl shaped glass sky, it is open. Thanks to the seas and ground for the mild temperatures we have, which keep the warm our sun gives us.
Dave Wendt (13:58:36) : Excellent comments. I watched hours of Feynman videos last night. Wish he were around today to dispense with this AGW nonsense.
That’s not a dart board, it’s a “wheel of fortune”-type random number generator.
Walter Cronanty (14:24:42) :
…Burping of the lambs blows roast off menu
From The Sunday TimesMay 24, 2009…
…I simply don’t know what to say.
This makes me remembering the last year (2008) when the State Environmental Secretary requested the Monterrey citizens to don’t roast meats on charcoal grills because we were contributing to prolong droughts. That was laid on the table because some black bears from the mountains were coming down to urbanized areas.
Adolfo Giurfa (14:55:56) :
John Galt (14:19:43) :For that to be true atmosphere should have the capacity of “holding” heat as water, however its volumetric heat capacity it is 3227 less than that of water. Check the volumetric heat capacities of both.
Any heated gas in the atmosphere transfers its heat by convection. The world it is not flat and covered with a bowl shaped glass sky, it is open. Thanks to the seas and ground for the mild temperatures we have, which keep the warm our sun gives us.
Exactly… ρC for oceanic liquid water is 4190000 J/m^3 °C, 1780000 J/m^3 K (in average) for ground (dry clay) and subsurface materials of ground, and 0.58 J/m^3 °C for atmospheric CO2.
Tom in Texas (14:25:03) : “…Putting [Claude Allègre] in charge of scientific research would be tantamount to “giving the finger to scientists”, said Nicolas Hulot, France’s best-known environmental activist.”
Zut alors! Zose French scientists NEED to get ze finger!
Roger Knights (15:23:45) :
That’s not a dart board, it’s a “wheel of fortune”-type random number generator.
Those people are making use of any kind of ridiculous propaganda for expanding AGW gospel.
Another caption: “Okay, guys. Stop laughing. Look serious, now. He’s going to take the picture.”
Have you read this? http://www.grforum.org/pages_new.php/Activity-report-/648/1/236/
Perry Debell (03:12:03) :
It is incredible just how 13th-century lyrics, set to music by Carl Orff, have resonance with the Wheel of Misfortune displayed by the wonks at MIT.
One of my favorite sing-alongs.
But then I sing along with Beethoven/Schiller’s 9th, too.
.
Bruce Foutch (10:03:07) :
“President Obama’s energy adviser has suggested all the world’s roofs should be painted white as part of efforts to slow global warming. ”
– Mr. Watts, Should we use whitewash or latex? 😉
Whitewash, without a doubt –
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/paint-test-082707-tmaxzoom.png
Plus, whitewash absorbs CO2 from the air. (We’ll just ignore the fact that it generates CO2 during manufacture.)
Off topic, but has anyone seen this article Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?
Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?
Ron de Haan (14:45:47) :
And: Extreme cold weather events kill children in Peru
http://www.peruviantimes.com/extreme-cold-temperatures-cause-death-of-133-children-under-the-age-of-five/
It is true, Puno is above 3500 meters high and it is a plateu at that altitude, and temperatures reach sometimes in WINTER, not in may, minus 22°C.
That would be a good place for this MIT team to study REAL CLIMATE, but of course on the field not from an hotel room.
From my previous post [“Burping of the lambs blows roast off menu”] to the incredibly intrusive, and expensive, cap and trade, the Western governments are truly using AGW to control every facet of our lives [Nasif – No barbecue for you!]. As long as institutions such as MIT put out tripe like it just did, the government elites will have more pretense to take over our lives for “our own good.” It’s amazing what people will give up for the [false] promise of “saving our planet.” I’m beginning to blame the general populace more than the elites. In the US, at least, you get the government you deserve. Too bad the rest of us have to put up with it.
=== BREAKING NEWS === BREAKING NEWS ===
Climate Cadets rescued by … Big Oil
“Climate Cadets Raoul Surcouf, 40, a gardener from Jersey, and Richard Spink, 32, a physiotherapist from Bristol had hoped to make a zero-carbon trip to the North Pole. Instead their yacht capsized and their mayday call was answered by a Big Oil Tanker…”
OT/Maybe Not
Just an observation about pedigree. In the UK the Guardian newspaper, Gawd bless ’em, although 100+x % warmist does allow dissent to an an extent that is commendable. Not, however when it comes to ‘Charlie is my darling’, the current POW.
His current spiel to 20’ish Nobellists – http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/may/27/prince-charles-nobel
is no different. No comment is invited, unlike his fellow guardanista fellow-traveller- Moonbat Mann. They may share similar pinnagraphic outlines but when it comes to that punch-bag moment it’s up to Mr Genetically Modified, rather than Mr Genetically Inbred, to handle the punches!
Can it be , that that bastion of liberality, the Graundian is now batting for the Saxe-Coburg second X1?
OT
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25550073-5017996,00.html
China is the country cashing in on the green craze,and the UN wants the developed world to give the Chinese government money as well.
LloydH (16:46:08) :
Off topic, but has anyone seen this article Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?
Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?
Cast serious doubts on wherever you read the word “could“, which also includes my posts. When one says “it could lead to…” or “it could be”, one is showing a bit or a ton of ignorance about a problem… Heh! 🙂
How a picture can replace a thousand words…
Cheap, amateurish and plastic (the media like all those nice shiny colors after all), and backed up by nothing more than a piece of flimsy cardboard and an elastic band
That really is a pretty good description of the entire AGW movement.
I would never have associated such a picture and pre-K level “science” with an organization like MIT. Astounding.
LloydH (16:46:08) :
Off topic, but has anyone seen this article Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?
Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?
Lloyd, Got to admit that I haven’t seen this but yet reckon that I’m qualified to answer! First, I admit I know precisely nothing. Secondly, I second that but thirdly after three years of watching this and similar spaces I may just be over-qualified.
Let us re-iterate your quote.
“Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?”
It’s a three quoter- (A)(B)(C) with a forth part chucked in – OK maybe it’s a four-parter quote!
(1) Greenland Ice
(2) could fuel#
(3) severe U.S. sea level rise
(4’ish) on reuters
(A1).. If it melts – OK – it has happened before and so will happen again- maybe not soon given the reduction in temperatures of the last decade or so
(A2).. Love that word could- it is so mathematical and inspirational that I use it regularly when I do the lottery
(A3).. severe… is that a subjective word? .. and is that the same sea-level rise that hasn’t happened yet in the Maldives or Tuvalu in the last hundred years?
(A4).. Reuters- See points A1 to A3 above and despair. Sometimes, the messenger needs shooting!
“Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?”
Dunno, mate- But on this site there’s awfie clever people who will give you advice
MIT is noted for two things, science and pranks. This doesn’t look like the usual MIT student hack, but it surely isn’t science!
And if you think that’s funny, get a load of Chu’s latest!!! (Drudge links to it)
Best,
Frank
Adam from Kansas (20:09:31) :
We tend to look at things in the short term and use words like “crashed” when perhaps subsided would be appropriate.
We ar off topic so I will keep it short. Stereo behind shows no new activity but stereo ahead shows the original cause of the elevated S/F is alive and healthy.
If it survives long enough to make it into the stereo behind frames then I think it will be the true harbinger of solar cycle 24.
Stereo behind.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/latest/behind_euvi_195_latest.jpg
Stereo Ahead. Look high latitude far right.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/05/28/ahead/euvi/195/512/20090528_011530_n7euA_195.jpg
Stereo Ahead core blanked.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/05/28/ahead/cor1/1024/20090528_010518_s7c1A.jpg
John Galt (14:19:43) :
@ur momisugly Adolfo Giurfa (13:12:25) :
Do you have more recent experiments to confirm this? There must be some simple experiments that can be performed to verify or falsify Bohr’s conclusions.
BTW: Like others, I’m frustrated with the lack of curiosity over this. Science is never settled. I’m tired of hearing ‘CO2 is a greenhouse gas so it must be causing climate change.’
John, Adolfo,
At the following link you will find several publications in regard to CO2:
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/carbondioxide.html
RoyFOMR (18:17:11) :
LloydH (16:46:08) :
Off topic, but has anyone seen this article Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?
Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?
Lloyd, Got to admit that I haven’t seen this but yet reckon that I’m qualified to answer! First, I admit I know precisely nothing. Secondly, I second that but thirdly after three years of watching this and similar spaces I may just be over-qualified.
Let us re-iterate your quote.
“Greenland ice could fuel severe U.S. sea level rise on reuters?”
It’s a three quoter- (A)(B)(C) with a forth part chucked in – OK maybe it’s a four-parter quote!
(1) Greenland Ice
(2) could fuel#
(3) severe U.S. sea level rise
(4′ish) on reuters
(A1).. If it melts – OK – it has happened before and so will happen again- maybe not soon given the reduction in temperatures of the last decade or so
(A2).. Love that word could- it is so mathematical and inspirational that I use it regularly when I do the lottery
(A3).. severe… is that a subjective word? .. and is that the same sea-level rise that hasn’t happened yet in the Maldives or Tuvalu in the last hundred years?
(A4).. Reuters- See points A1 to A3 above and despair. Sometimes, the messenger needs shooting!
“Is Greenland Ice really melting faster? where can I find more info on this?”
Dunno, mate- But on this site there’s awfie clever people who will give you advice.
Hans Schreuder last year made a visit to Greenland and made some great pictures.
As all the icecaps in the world, the Greenland Icecap is growing.
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/Greenland_ice_cap.html
Weekly reports about Greenland Ice extend:
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/en/index/gronland/iskort.htm
here we have probabilites for the 400 test runs of the computer model climate to fall within several temperature ranges.
what is missing, is a probability of the connection between the computer model climate and planet earth.
it is missing because nobody knows.
the mit guys may claim to be quite confident, however it is simply impossible to say how exact the model is, what difference simplifications make and the influence of everything else they do not yet model, understand or even know of.
we do know however, that the results of the last run a few years ago was wrong by 100%, if we would assume the new runs are o.k.
a few years ago the so called scientists were just as confident as they are now, but are now said to have been wrong by 100%.
same story for mr. hansen in 1988, whose scientific knowledge at that time must appear stone age from todays perspective, what didn’t prevent him from bring hystery over the whole planet.
so it is likely that in just a few years, “better” models will prove these computer climate runs again wrong and temperatures may very likely fall outside the 400 computer model runs.