By Steven Goddard
The Catlin crew was picked up this week, after completing less than 50% of their planned journey to the North Pole and coming up about 500km short. Immediately upon their return, The Guardian reported :
After 73 days, the Catlin Arctic Survey has come to an end. Pen Hadow’s team of British Arctic explorers have battled to the North Pole through freezing conditions collecting data about the ice en route.
This reminds me of the legend of “bringing the mountain to Mohammed.” The crew reported traveling over 400km, a non-trivial percentage of which was due to floating along with the Arctic drift. See this map of Arctic buoys and their drift patterns:
Polar drift map over the last 60 days.
Given the polar drift, one has to wonder how much ice was actually traversed, and how many measurements were taken near the same spot on the first year ice. The Catlin Crew reported in The Telegraph :
Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole
From the Catlin web site :
Expedition Leader Pen Hadow revealed that initial Survey results show the average ice thickness in the region to be 1.774m.
1.774m is fairly thick for first year ice (and requires a very accurate tape measure.) They started their expedition in March on ice which NSIDC had already identified in February as first year ice – so why were they surprised to find first year ice?
The NSIDC February map showed multi-year ice as shades of red and orange, and their start point (red dot) was more than 100km away from the edge of the multi-year ice. The crew also reported that their data is biased by a pragmatic choice of route across flat (first year) ice.
One further consideration, when interpreting the ice thickness measurements made by the CAS team, is navigational bias. The team systematically seeks out flatter ice because it is easier to travel over and camp on.
According to the Catlin web site, there was plenty of second year ice – but apparently the cold weather and lack of progress kept them from reaching it. Note in the map below that second year ice (SY) is not considered multi-year (MY) ice. The AGW world has recently redefined the word “multi-year” as meaning greater than two years. (Next year it may need to be defined as greater than three years.)
.
In summary :
- Due to horrifically cold weather, hypothermia and frostbite, they made it less than half way to the pole.
- Some of the distance they did travel was due to polar drift. They reported crossing the 85th parallel “in their sleep.”
- They started on ice which was already known to be first year ice, yet were “surprised” to find that it was first year ice.
- They stayed on first year ice for most of the truncated journey.
- Their ice measurements tell us that the first year ice this year is fairly thick.
- Their ice measurements tell us very little or about the thickness or “health” of multi-year ice.
- They will no doubt get an invite to St. James Palace for tea with Prince Charles
May, 2009 shows the greatest ice extent in the AMSR-E record, which seems to contradict Hadow’s highly publicised remarks about Arctic ice health.
Oh, and one last thing, Steven. When you write an article with the title ‘The Guardian Relocates The North Pole By 500km’, you should be fair and mention the fact that the main article states that thing about ‘490km from the pole, less than half way there.’
Leon Brozyna has hit the nail on the head. There is no journalism any more, just a repetition of press reports, which represent the opinions, biased or otherwise of the group or persons who issued them. There is no attempt to verify accuracy. Have a look at the internet edition of a few international newspapers regarding some item of world news and you will find the item printed word for word in newspapers all over the world. Journalism as an art, is dead.
Hey my first snip. Gee Evan you must be in a snipping mood!!
I actually think that was a reasonable deduction based on 1. How incredibly easy it was to find the quote on the Guardians site to prove him wrong and/or 2. how absent he has been since his first factually incorrect comment.
Why snip a comment that brings his intelligence and/or character into question when he was the one that wanted to place it in the public arena for all to critique? I’m not one for ad-hominem attacks, but a comment about someones motivations when the situation is so black and white surely couldn’t be characterised as that. Let’s not be afraid to call a spade a spade when it is warranted.
Regards
Michael
Incidentally has anyone ever tried to measure 1.744 m with an imperial, (inches), tape measure?
I am baffled by the comment that the link I gave triggered Norton security, since its a link to a file on Picasa.
Here is the direct link: http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/nXSLz20vWMmUSjM6_Qu6YQ?authkey=Gv1sRgCMuYutjs2cCxXQ&feat=directlink
Come on Anthony,tell us how you are subtly manipulating us.I didn’t think there was anything subtle about this site.Gerard,your English is bad,but maybe you can speak and write perfect English,and you are hiding behind the disguise of a foreigner to manipulate us into believing that Mr Wattt? is manipulating us,or maybe you used that disguise to issue insults.
ALL TIME DUMBEST POLAR EXPLORERS
These guys have got to be number 1
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/south-pole-tragedy.htm
“One friend of Prof. Schneider told ecoEnquirer that he had been planning a trip to an ice sheet to film the devastation brought on by global warming.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2245301/posts
“Apparently, while all of Prof. Schneider’s friends were assuming that the July trek would be to Greenland, during Northern Hemisphere summer, his plans were actually to snowmobile to the South Pole – which, in July, is in the dead of winter.”
Also in the telegraph
“Pen Hadow climate change trek finds thin ice
Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole.”
But after the headline
The veteran explorer and his team trekked more than 269 miles for 73 days but were unable to make it to the North Pole because of extreme weather, with temperatures dropping below minus 40 degrees F/C.
“Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole.”
“Appears” is another of those words that needs DATA to back it up.
How far did the North Pole trek to them again? I know the magnetic north pole moves but who’d have thought that the geographic one would move about… wouldn’t we be in really serious trouble if that actually happened?
Science over propaganda.
M White (03:24:56) :
Oh dear so easily confused on the same site that references this
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/south-pole-tragedy.htm
is:
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/levitating-islands.htm
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/Bush-jets-and-Katrina.htm
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/dolphins-heading-north.htm
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/polar-bear-heat.htm
Quite a good, well written Hoots really!!!!!!!!
the ecoenquirer are in my humour section of favourites now!!!
And the blogosphere all believe it’s true!!!!!!
What a site!!! well worth a look:
Dr. Slander recounted a recent incident in which a polar bear attacked a local homeless man, and had devoured only a small part of the man’s body before collapsing from exhaustion. “Because of global warming, the bears’ normal way of life is changing rapidly..it’s tragic.”
and
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/antarctic-ice.htm
Dr. Frost also described ongoing research into the application of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle to climate studies. Her concern is that the large number of climate researchers that are now observing the climate system are actually changing the Earth’s climate because of their observations, and believes this effect needs to be taken into account in computerized climate models.
and a classic
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/Bali-global-warming-2027.htm
As in previous years, the U.N. conference was the target of some criticism for neglecting mounting scientific evidence that climate change is a largely natural phenomenon. A minority of non-UN-certified climate scientists once again pointed to global temperatures that have continued their slow decline for the past thirty years. All of these comments were made anonymously due to their illegality under anti-green hate speech laws.
“Yes, global temperatures have fallen”, admitted Mr. Gore in private, “but as we all know, this spurious cooling trend will suddenly change to rapid warming…possibly as early as next month. I am told by our UN scientists that we now have less than ten years to avert a global inferno of cataclysmic proportions.”
Once again, the Canadian delegation expressed some concern that the world’s cooling trend might not end soon enough. Pointing to the ice sheet in northern Canada that has now survived through thirteen summers without melting, the Canadians warned that some towns in the far north might have to be abandoned as the ice sheet continues its expansion southward
I am a bit puzzled why everybody is at John Servais’ throat. He correctly referred to the text in the main body of the article rather then the caption of a photograph to which Steve referred. I think Steve owes John an apology.
Steve should have mentioned in his guest post that there was this discrepancy. By omitting the part of text that says: “The Catlin Arctic Survey’s original mission to take measurements right up to the North Pole has not worked out though. They will be picked up 490km from the pole, less than half way there” Steven can and should be accused of cherry-picking. This is unfortunate because he does “our cause” a disservice.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/may/13/catlin-arctic-survey-ends
Damn…where’s that sign I posted?…seems to keep getting knocked down or turned around…
Oh…there it is!
PLEASE…do NOT FEED THE TROLLS!
JimB
One comment on the site that I remember about the fact that the drift moved them closer to the North Pole is something like after they have been out of food, after the last food an sleeping bag delivery, is this (not exactly these words though): “This is good since we then will complete more of this very important scientific studOne comment on the site that I remeber about the fact that the drift moved them closer to the North Pole is something like after they have been out of food, after the last food an sleeping bag delivery, is this (not exactly these words though): “This is good since we then will complete more of this very important scientific study, which is why we are here.”
Any polar bear who can drill can do that scientifically important job if you just force it to stay on a flake?
Also Ann said that education is important, and that she used her math to calculate how long distance they have to achieve each day to reach the North Pole. Then, late in April, they had to make 16 km a day or something… I also did that important calculation in my head. Science is saved.y, which is why we are here.”
Any polar bear who can drill can do that scientifically important job if you just force it to stay on a flake?
Also Ann said that education is important, and that she used her math to calculate how long distance they have to achieve each day to reach the North Pole. Then, late in April, they had to make 16 km a day or something… I also did that important calculation in my head. Science is saved. How happy I am!
SIR Pen Hadow anyone?
bill,
Another classic: click
“Chris Wood (03:08:13) :
Incidentally has anyone ever tried to measure 1.744 m with an imperial, (inches), tape measure?”
Yeah you just convert to MM, then multiply by 24.5, or is it 25.4….lol I forget my engineering days working on imperial machines with metric drawings. Oh thank the human brain for inveting metric displays that could be “retro” fitted to imperial milling machines and lathes.
I used to be a proud Brit, living in a small yet proud & great nation. Sadly these days I tend to become typically an embarrassed Brit making excuses for the half-wits who represent us from time to time. This time though, this takes the biscuit!
I wonder how many measurements were actually taken on the ice, & how mant were made back at base ready for “processing & interpretation”? Always a worry when data has to be “interpreted”. Tis a pity they couldn’t have died an honorable death up there to lend a degree of romantic drama to it all, the heroic Brits dying in their efforts to achieve greatness & all that. Oh well.
BTW John Servais, :-))
just put your hands up & apologise, most on this site will not hold it against you, & you’ll be amased at how much repsect you will gain by doing so. Remember, it’s not making a mistake that causes problems, it’s not admitting it when one has made one, & acknowledging so. We’re all human & fallible, even Mr Watts & co acknowledge any typos, misleading data & statements & other errors as they occur, because readers here let them know it in no uncertain yet courteous terms! Stick to this site, Climate Audit, Climate Sceptics, Junkcscience, Numberwatch, et al, & you will learn a lot!
Whoops! Typo acknowledged, that should read many not mant!
AtB:-0
Chris Schoneveld (04:57:49) :
***I am a bit puzzled why everybody is at John Servais’ throat. He correctly referred to the text in the main body of the article rather then the caption of a photograph to which Steve referred. I think Steve owes John an apology. ***.
Which was the more recent article? I believe that Steve was referring to the most recent article in which they “changed” the location of the North Pole. Steve is not required to refer to 3 day old articles. John should have checked before sending insulting messages.
Some here are arguing that it is OK for a newspaper to print incorrect information, as long as somewhere else they print more accurate information. Now that is an interesting point of view.
The “battled to the North Pole” and found ice “thinner than expected.” You want to let that slide?
Chris,
It is not my job to be editor of The Guardian. That job belongs to the editors of The Guardian.
Reading is fundamental, John….
Steve:
Thanks for your thoughts on pickup of drums and other materials used by the Catlin expedition. I will be in Resolute in a month or so and it will be interesting to talk with the locals and to hear their thoughts on the whole thing.
And I take your point : “NO ONE is expecting temperatures above freezing at the pole. It may become ice free in summer but not winter. Can we drop the childish references to “sunbathing” please.” Guess I was thinking of the photo accompanying your post on May 11.
On a different, but related topic – permafrost. For 8 years I worked as Chief Geologist at the Lupin gold mine, not too far south of the Arctic Circle in what was then the NWT. You might be interested in knowing that in situ rock temperatures decreased with depth from surface to about 300 metres. Coldest in situ temperatures I recall were about -12C. We did not cross the 0C mark until about 550m. Obviously, the colder temperatures at depth are a relic of the last glacial epoch and the gradual increase in rock temps from about 300m to surface are a function of the warming that has taken place since then.
One comment of team member published on the Catlin web site was about the fact that the drift moved them closer to the North Pole. It was made after the last re-suply and was something like this (but not exactly these words!) : “The drift is good since we then can complete as much as possible of the very important scientific study which after all is why we are here.”
What is the point to stay on the same flake of ice and do the scientifically important job when it isn’t scientifically tolerable then?
Ann said a few weeks before that education is important, and that she used her math skill to calculate how long distance they have to achieve each day to reach the North Pole. Then, late in April, they had to make 16 km a day or something… I made that scientifically important calculation in a second! It felt like I saved the Earth.