By Steven Goddard
The Catlin crew was picked up this week, after completing less than 50% of their planned journey to the North Pole and coming up about 500km short. Immediately upon their return, The Guardian reported :
After 73 days, the Catlin Arctic Survey has come to an end. Pen Hadow’s team of British Arctic explorers have battled to the North Pole through freezing conditions collecting data about the ice en route.
This reminds me of the legend of “bringing the mountain to Mohammed.” The crew reported traveling over 400km, a non-trivial percentage of which was due to floating along with the Arctic drift. See this map of Arctic buoys and their drift patterns:
Polar drift map over the last 60 days.
Given the polar drift, one has to wonder how much ice was actually traversed, and how many measurements were taken near the same spot on the first year ice. The Catlin Crew reported in The Telegraph :
Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole
From the Catlin web site :
Expedition Leader Pen Hadow revealed that initial Survey results show the average ice thickness in the region to be 1.774m.
1.774m is fairly thick for first year ice (and requires a very accurate tape measure.) They started their expedition in March on ice which NSIDC had already identified in February as first year ice – so why were they surprised to find first year ice?
The NSIDC February map showed multi-year ice as shades of red and orange, and their start point (red dot) was more than 100km away from the edge of the multi-year ice. The crew also reported that their data is biased by a pragmatic choice of route across flat (first year) ice.
One further consideration, when interpreting the ice thickness measurements made by the CAS team, is navigational bias. The team systematically seeks out flatter ice because it is easier to travel over and camp on.
According to the Catlin web site, there was plenty of second year ice – but apparently the cold weather and lack of progress kept them from reaching it. Note in the map below that second year ice (SY) is not considered multi-year (MY) ice. The AGW world has recently redefined the word “multi-year” as meaning greater than two years. (Next year it may need to be defined as greater than three years.)
.
In summary :
- Due to horrifically cold weather, hypothermia and frostbite, they made it less than half way to the pole.
- Some of the distance they did travel was due to polar drift. They reported crossing the 85th parallel “in their sleep.”
- They started on ice which was already known to be first year ice, yet were “surprised” to find that it was first year ice.
- They stayed on first year ice for most of the truncated journey.
- Their ice measurements tell us that the first year ice this year is fairly thick.
- Their ice measurements tell us very little or about the thickness or “health” of multi-year ice.
- They will no doubt get an invite to St. James Palace for tea with Prince Charles
May, 2009 shows the greatest ice extent in the AMSR-E record, which seems to contradict Hadow’s highly publicised remarks about Arctic ice health.
1. Due to horrifically cold weather, hypothermia and frostbite, . . .
. . .
7. They will no doubt get an invite to St. James Palace for tea with Prince Charles
Glad to have you back, Catlin, but it’s gonna be tough to hold a teacup with no fingertips.
For months Guardian environment articles were accompanied by a plug for the Catlin expedition claiming that it would reveal the state of ice at the poles, in the plural. Ending up 490 km from the North one at least means that they were that much closer to the South one.
Yes, I have browsed around the NET, including the Catlin site, and everywhere I read they are insinuating that the Catlin bunch had to be rescued from the ice because the ice was melting.
What is the real reason for their departure? Melting Ice? or Failed Mission?
The initial BBC article made no mention of the expedition’s failure and portrayed it as a successful trek. That article was a better choice to make an example of but it might have recieved edits by now.
Precisely what I was talking about. I am not understanding this “early melt” garbage. All indications that I have seen, from real measurements, is that, if anything, the seasonal melt is behind schedule, and that there is plenty of ice. Can someone here clarify this for us?
John Servais (16:58:28) :
You and your friends keep watching John. You’ll learn something. There is life outside of politics.
Margo’s Maid (22:51:40) :
Breaking news: the Catlin Crew have been ranked amongst the top five British polar explorers of all time: http://margosmaid.blogspot.com/2009/05/catlin-expedition-ranked-second-on-all.html
Now that’s just wicked.
They release the article to the press. They get busted on it. A retraction is placed in some far away corner, unseen. The damage has been done. We see this over and over , and yet it just seems to keep on keepin’ on. Perhaps society is turning a blind eye willfully. Sometimes you get tired fighting the good fight all the time and you just want to lie down for awhile. Then along comes Mr. Servais actin’ all big and bad, makes a ginormous gaff, and WHAM, your vigar is renewed !!!! I thank you, sir, ………
The expedition follows in the long tradition across all fields of young enthusiastic folks needing to draw up a suitable movie script to raise the shekels to go. Mountaineers, sailors, trekkers, you name it. They do it.
They’ll get their 15 minutes of fame.
But it’s a very minor blip in the annals of climate science………..
Margo’s Maid (22:51:40) :
Breaking news: the Catlin Crew have been ranked amongst the top five British polar explorers of all time: http://margosmaid.blogspot.com/2009/05/catlin-expedition-ranked-second-on-all.html
Now this is just plain wicked. Good on yeh.
The Catlin Expedition Pens More Lies about Global Warming:
We battled our way to the North Pole… NOT!
We took representative measurements of ice thickness… NOT!
Arctic ice is much thinner than usual… NOT!
This year, the summer melt came a little early… NOT!
We are environmentalists… NOT!
Pen and Company, you are Climate Clowns, and accomplished liars.
John Servais (16:58:28) :
If you are truly concerned about things that are made up then put Al Gore, James Hansen, Michael Mann, and Naomi Oreskes under your watchful eye.
” Margo’s Maid (22:51:40) : the Catlin Crew have been ranked amongst the top five British polar explorers of all time:”
Boy, this really doesn’t say much for the Brits!
Reply: I suggest you read the link. ~ charles the moderator
John Servais (16:58:28) :
“So – I went to the Guardian website and read their article – and they do not say the Catlin team was picked up at the North Pole. Indeed, the article clearly says they are being picked up 490 Km short of the Pole.”
Steven Goddard didn’t post a quote that said they were “picked up” at the Pole. The Guardian created the impression that they made it to the North Pole. And that statement was hyperlinked to an article that did not reference where they were picked up, nor did the hyperlink below that.
One had to dig through the whole site to find that information – there are or were *several* articles, not just one, or as you say “their article”.
“So – do you regularly make up quotes on the assumption that your readers will not check?”
Oh, the irony. No quote was made up, unless it was by you claiming a quote was posted saying they were picked up at the Pole.
“NwCitizen writers have been following your stuff – and have been impressed to a point. Perhaps we need to keep track of you as you supposedly – read pretend – to keep track of the envoro’s press. Hello.”
Now that’s just downright scary! Any reason why anyone should give a hootnholler? Got even one reference to a post on your dead site where a writer references Wattsupwiththat?
” Margo’s Maid (22:51:40) : the Catlin Crew have been ranked amongst the top five British polar explorers of all time:”
It’s amazing how shallow one can be, as is with Pen Hadlow, and end up in this sort of category. WHAT AN ABSOLUTE JOKE!!
And John Servais, you can quote me on that in your inconsequential political blogs that only few ever heard of. Make yourself feel important.
i see, nevermind
Reply: I suggest you read the link. ~ charles the moderator
i see
i was venting frustrations, —sorry Anthony, and charles, i was a bit out of line
let’s hope they really are ranked on a list of ridicule
list should say bottom 5, hey?
Some people need to read. The Catlin expedition have indeed been ranked 2nd on the list of all time British Polar Explorers.
BUT
THEY RANK 2ND ON THE LIST OF ALL TIME DUMBEST POLAR EXPLORERS.
Link
http://margosmaid.blogspot.com/2009/05/catlin-expedition-ranked-second-on-all.html
Hoot of a read, worthy of a post here at WUWT.
Dumbest 5 are, drum roll……
5th John Hornby
4th Admiral Sir Edward Belcher
3rd Lewis Pugh (the dumb kayaker)
2nd The Catlin Expedition
1st Robert Falcon Scott
Basically it seems like Catlin only managed to get 2nd behind Scott because nobody dies on the Catlin Expedition.
As I said, Hoot of a read.
The BBC news site shows them being picked up. And it has the best map I have seen about the track of the expedition.
In the BBC videos Pen declares his team did what they said they would although it was too bad some electronics let them down. But anyway the real goal was drilling the holes and making the measurements.
He notes the ice was thinner that expected and that is important data.
The BBC reporter is obviously trying to be agreeable and stay neutral about what Pen says. And I think that is the right way to handle the story when you consider the setting; on the ice 300 miles from the pole, talking with three tired people.
Personally I don’t see how they even managed to take all those ice measurements. Boring hundreds of holes through ice doesn’t seem possible when you consider they kept moving, spent time on the useless radar, and had to stay in tents during several bad storms.
No doubt we will hear Pen’s version and little else. Twas a famous victory!
“John Servais” – Do you regulary MISREAD all the articles you look at ?.
Where are you ?
Come back !!.
I hopeyou will excuse my poor English.
I love this site but I always double check what is said when I want to use it.
The memo from John Servais is a non information for the following reason:
Some people when they make a conference have a “complice” in the room who will ask the first question. The question can even be on a chosen topic, asked in a way that the speaker can answer and say latter I already answered to that question. I hate that.
Here we do not know but this first memo is so cute that it could be an Antony manipulation.
I would be a chief alarmist, I would say:
John Servais [snip], you made the game of Antony Wattt and Steven Goddar. It is clear that you are a hidden sceptic and we will claim that all that stuff is a new proof of how these guys are manipulating the truth. Do not apologize; [snip]
Some times it is not an organised manipulation, the first to ask question could be some one who just want you help the speaker like here.[snip] May be John Servais is just Steven brother in law who wanted to help him.
I personally think it is not a manipulation because I am quite sure, one made by Antony would be more subtle.
But anyway and seriously as we cannot know we cannot use that, it is just for fun.
Gaurdian North Pole comment is still there. So is the Ice.
North = -300,000 sqkm
South = +900,000 sqkm
These are facts,
This is speculation,
Looking at the NSIDC graphs I would estimate for September 2009 to be back to normal, 2007 and 2008 having been the low point. As temp drops over the next few years, expect to see the Ice min point in september to increase slightly. Definitely not Ice free in 2013.
What I’d like to know is how many of Catlin’s “readings” were done with the drill and the stick after their equipment failed. They were frostbitten and starving yet they managed 16,000 readings. How many holes did they drill?
When I go to the Guardian’s Environment-page: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment, and click on the first article I see on the Catlin expedition: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/may/13/catlin-arctic-survey-ends, I read after a few lines that ‘the Catlin Arctic Survey’s original mission to take measurements right up to the North Pole has not worked out though. They will be picked up 490km from the pole, less than half way there.’
Now, to the right of this article under the header ‘More on this story’ there are several links, on of them being ‘Catlin Arctic Survey: Images from the ice’, which has the infamously misleading ‘battled to the North Pole’ propaganda Steven Goddard alludes to.
Great, Steven. You’ve managed to find something to underscore the fact that the press will exaggerate to gain attention and that many reporters in the press write about things that they know nothing or not much about. I mean, how many people who work at the Guardian actually know whether Hadow made it to the North Pole or came 490 or 22 or 267 km short?
I totally agree with you that the MSM is a mess, not only on climate reporting but on many, many other issues as well. But do you really have to come up with articles such as this one to highlight this fact? Isn’t that a bit over the top? Editors and reporters are hyperanxious to be first to report and will blow up anything that sells. But you and Anthony are not MSM editors, right? I think WUWT can chug along fine without these nitpicking and hastily written articles.