Unprecedented Incoherence In The Ice Message

Guest post by Steven Goddard
Last week, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon warned that “polar ice caps were melting far faster than expected just two years ago

This was based on a number of widely publicized scientific studies released this year claiming that both the Arctic and Antarctic are melting faster than expected.

A team of UK researchers claims to have new evidence that global warming is melting the ice in Antarctica faster than had previously been thought.

Icecaps around the North and South Poles are melting faster than expected, raising sea levels as a result of climate change, a major scientific survey has shown.

As recently as last week, scientists were sounding the alarm.
Tues., April 28, 2009
OSLO – The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have awakened and are melting faster than expected, a leading expert told peers ahead of a conference of ministers from nations with Arctic territory.
Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, an expert with the Center for Ice and Climate at the University of Copenhagen, told the conference in the Arctic town of Tromsoe that the need for a wake-up call was genuine for the polar and glacial regions.

He apparently didn’t read this paper from last Autumn’s AGU Meeting

Ice loss in Greenland has had some climatologists speculating that global warming might have brought on a scary new regime of wildly heightened ice loss and an ever-faster rise in sea level. But glaciologists reported at the American Geophysical Union meeting that Greenland ice’s Armageddon has come to an end.

One has to wonder if some scientists are lacking access to the Internet, as the amount of polar sea ice on the planet is above the 30 year mean.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Yesterday, NSIDC announced that “Arctic sea ice extent at the end of April 2009 was within the expected range of natural variability.”  and “The decline rate for the month of April was the third slowest on record
The NSIDC graph below shows that April ice extent has actually increased by more than the size of Texas over past last two years.  Clearly The UN Secretary General is mistaken when he claims “”polar ice caps were melting far faster than expected just two years ago.”

I took this graph a step further and compared 2009 vs. past years.  Current April extent is the greatest in the last 8 years.  It is greater than it was 20 years ago.
If you look at the last 20 years, there is no statistically significant trend in the data.
Arctic ice extent is essentially normal.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
It is important to remember that ice area between mid-April and mid-August is what affects the earth’s climate, because that is when the sun is up highest in the sky.  When the ice reaches it’s minimum in September, the sun is so low above the horizon that the presence or absence of ice has little impact on the earth’s SW radiation balance.  A more complete explanation here .
Also, the claim of Polar Bear endangerment is based largely on the idea that the ice is supposedly breaking up earlier than it used to in the spring.  The “third slowest melt on record” would hardly support that popular claim.
I continue to be astonished at the amount of misinformation being propagated by some scientists and governmental officials.  The correct information is readily available to anyone who has access to Google and five minutes of time.  What is the real agenda?
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Michael Alexis

What is the real agenda?
A global command economy.

Ray

If you want incoherance in the news check out the science section in Google News for Canada. In the same gathering of news about the Artic ice, you find both melting and unexpected freezing articles. Maybe it is a sign that things are stating to chance in the MSM.

Laurence Kirk

In my experience politicians don’t often bother to do their own reseach. They prefer meeting people, talking and exerting their influnece. They tend to rely on staff for research, who may sometimes prefer to tell them what they think they want to hear, or even have their own itineraries. “Yes Minister”, etc. And matters of climate change are probably more an annoyance to a lot of them, to be delegated to the minions (apart from those that are making money out of it)

The Alarmists have already been proved wrong. That was the easy part–the Earth has done it for us.
The next step is getting the Alarmists to ADMIT they were wrong and that, I’m afraid, will take heaven AND Earth.

gary gulrud

Linear trends of cyclic data are as subject to Twain’s axiom as the remainder of Statistics in the wrong hands.

Indiana Bones

At some point this cadre of politicians will need to confront the notion that continued AGW alarmism in the face of enormous data to the contrary – is a losing proposition. There are enough political consultants and pollsters and spin doctors on the planet to make this abundantly clear to even the most hardened alarmist.
In the face of these facts – and having the benefit of hindsight – how do these politicians plan to extract themselves from the backlash that is inevitable. Do they think they will not be held responsible for perpetrating an inhumane hoax? At what point do these intelligent purveyors of human evolution look in a mirror and admit that fear-based social engineering has run out of… ahem, gas?

James P

It’s difficult to know whether to laugh or cry…

John Galt

We absolutely do not know how big the range of natural variation is for the Arctic and Antarctic ice packs. We’ve only been measuring for a few decades and that coincided with a warming period.
The default position should be the skeptical one. All changes observed in the last 30 years are presumed as natural until shown otherwise by the preponderance of the evidence.
BTW: Computer models do not produce evidence! Evidence is facts derived from direct observation. Computer models do not output facts, either.

Greg S

This is an ethics problem, not a science issue.
And speaking of ethics, how long will it take Secretary of Energy Steve Chu to sound the klaxon of Armageddon over this latest “study”?

Well this is lucky for the Catlin group I suppose. There will likely be enough ice for the rescue planes to land on when it comes time to extricate them. Still, I have to wonder what their “reports” will yield. Anyone taking bets?

Bill Thomson

Why is it that when a major scientific expedition has just reported the surprise discovery that newly formed arctic ice was often twice as thickas expected, only one newspaper in the world thinks it is newsworthy?
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/05/04/lawrence-solomon-deep-arctic-ice-surprises-scientific-expedition.aspx

Mark

“One has to wonder if some scientists are lacking access to the Internet, as the amount of polar sea ice on the planet is above the 30 year mean.”
What they are lacking is any notion of integrity.

Frederick Michael

There’s a news story coming that’s could bring down the AGW hoax like a house of cards. Compare this graph with the arctic graph above:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Notice that the slope of the antarctic sea ice for May is about 4 million sq. km. per month. That’s more than twice the slope for the arctic and that means that the total is going to rise a lot over the next month (or more). There is a good chance the all time HIGH record for sea ice worldwide will be broken. This is at such perfect variance with the idiotic pronouncements by the AGW fanatics that they won’t be able to dance away.
I’d like to see a headline that starts with the words, “Break Out the Tar and Feathers.”

kim

I think part of the reason for all the furor about the Arctic Ice is that this is just as much an iconic image as the Polar Bears. Because of the lag in pumping heat from the tropics to the poles, the Arctic Ice continued melting even after the globe started cooling. Also, a picture of a globe with the Sea Ice extent is an easily understandable graphic. Temperature series with a small drop didn’t mean a lot, but wide swaths of ice disappearing before our eyes does. I think this present incoherence is just a manifestation of panic that the last great graphic in support of ‘global warming’ and the power derived from carbon taxing is going belly up.
The world’s politicians, and journalists, and corrupt scientists can’t keep up the charade much longer.
===============================================

Laurence Kirk

OT – BBC update re Caitlin:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8033969.stm
‘The latest resupply was only made possible because the charter firm Kenn Borek Air fitted special fuel tanks to allow the aircraft extra range and so avoid the need for a refuelling stop.
This limited the amount of weight that could be carried, so while food, fuel and batteries were delivered, a scientific instrument known as SeaCat, designed to to be lowered into the sea beneath the ice, had to be left behind.
Chip Cunliffe, operations chief in London, said: “It has been a difficult 10 days trying to get the flight in, with the weather consistently frustrating us, and a technical problem with one plane causing us to turn back on one earlier attempt to reach them.
“Using additional fuel tanks has made this resupply easier in the end; and it’s a relief to get the team moving once again.”
The expedition, originally due to run into the end of May, is now being concluded a week early amid concern about the strength of the ice as the summer melt approaches.
The Catlin Arctic Survey team hopes its ice thickness data – coming primarily now from drilling following the failure of a mobile radar unit – will help scientists better understand the changes taking place at the highest latitudes.’
They got a resupply in but sounds like they are cannning the expedition due to the cold weather and the effort of drilling through such thick ice…

Neil McEvoy

Anthony,
The articles you cite talk about land ice and not sea ice. The two may be correlated, but I don’t think that can be tacitly assumed.

Leon Brozyna

Even if the ice area and extent keep growing for the next decade, politicians will keep on talking about the melting ice and the need to do something; need those tax dollars, don’t you know.
Looking at those first two graphs of April Ice Extent, perception is everything.
The first shows the trend down for 30 years and the hint of possible recovery is hidden in plain view.
The second, with a flat line drawn through this year’s April level makes a possible recovery of ice extent more visible.
So, if the ice extent this September is greater than last year, will the talk next year still be of the loss of Arctic ice as seen through 2007? Silly question — of course!

LOL in Oreogn

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie
The Big Lie (German: Große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. It was defined by Adolf Hitler in his 1925 autobiography Mein Kampf as
=> a lie so “colossal” that no one would believe that someone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously”.

kim

Some of the hysteria has been to keep the fraud going until Copenhagen happened and carbon taxing could penetrate the last great polity not embracing it, the United States. But Cap and Trade seems to be foundering on industrial state Democrats having their oxen gored. New Zealand, and now Australia seems to be seeing the light. Copenhagen, whatever happens there, will be ignored, and the globe will continue to cool, for how long, even kim doesn’t know.
But I think the high water mark of the hoax has been reached. We can start reminiscing about Michael Piltdown Mann, now. I remember being so amused as a child that the world’s intelligentsia could have been fooled so extensively by the Piltdown Mann, but I’m just stunned at how much bigger a manifestation of the essential foolishness of man this climate warming hogwash has been.
Though it won’t have quite the far reaching impact on the rightful placement of man in the cosmos as the Galileo affair did, the immediate social impact of this correction in our consciousness will be far greater than that scientific revolution. Interesting times we live in. I never expected to see this.
===========================================

Allen63

The popular media routinely provides politically motivated disinformation (on every important topic). That’s all the information most working people with families have the time to peruse. The politicians know that.
I find that the disinformation regarding AGW is effective. Most minds I meet are closed and in the pro-AGW mode — yet, most minds do not have the background to understand the subject. People simply believe propaganda often repeated. Its nothing new in human society. That bothers me, but I don’t have a solution.

I think that we all know what the real agenda is — financial oppertunism (Gore), grants etc. and the dreaded “la la la I cant hear you” syndrome.

George Bruce

“What is the real agenda?”
That is the real question.

Dane

To be fair, she (Dorthe Dahl-Jensen is a she, not he) was commenting on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, not sea ice, as Steven Goddard is commenting on.
Jørgen

PaulH

The real agenda? It’s simple: Follow the Money. There are too many political and professional careers based upon AGW. For example, watch this recent BNN interview with former World Bank economist Nicholas Stern:
http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/may-2009/squeezeplay-may-4-2009/#clip168429
No surprise he is flogging his new book claiming that things are getting even “worse” than they thought just a couple of years ago, all the skeptics are stupid, CO2 is all to blame, blah, blah, blah.
(I wonder if economist Stern had the foresight to predict the recent world-wide economic collapse, or was he too busy chasing the AGW phantom menace?)

Leon Brozyna

Laurence Kirk (09:21:38)
Good points on your OT Catlin update. As I commented on the fuel cache post:
“BBC is reporting that the team has been resupplied.
And now the real spin begins.
Remember, at mission start they were to travel 1,000 km in 100 days. So, after 65 days they’ve done all of just under 400 km. And now they won’t even do 100 days ( the ice is melting, don’t you know). With a start date of 28 Feb, 100 days would have meant they’d be on the ice till 8 Jun. Now it’s being spun that the mission was going to end at the end of May but will be cut short a week. Which gives them about another 20 days or so before being plucked off the ice.
Or, to use the Catlin technique –
550 km in 85 days (okay, maybe 600 km in 85 days).
Not quite as thrilling sounding as 1,000 km in 100 days.”

Let me reemphasize the point – while the spin is that it’s being cut short a week, in reality it’s being cut short by two weeks. So much for five years of meticulous planning.

Robert Wood

Indiana Bones @ 09:06:49
…how do these politicians plan to extract themselves from the backlash that is inevitable,
They will point out they were honest and sincere victims of advice that was was thought to be accurate at the time, but turned out to be erroneous.

Steve Goddard

Neil,
Please read the linked articles more carefully.

So much for Greenland ice’s Armageddon. “It has come to an end,” glaciologist Tavi Murray of Swansea University in the United Kingdom said during a session at the meeting. “There seems to have been a synchronous switch-off” of the speed-up, she said. Nearly everywhere around south east Greenland, outlet glacier flows have returned to the levels of 2000.

Chris Wood

These reported statements make it clear that there is a political agenda at work and misleading or false claims are part of that agenda.
“In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill.”
– Club of Rome,
The First Global Revolution
and…
“…we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination….So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts….Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.”
– Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
and…
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
fmr Canadian Minister of the Environment

Skeptic Tank

AGW causes floods.
AGW causes droughts.
AGW causes floods and droughts in the same place at the same time.
What’s incoherent?

StephenAA

_she_ might not have read the paper. In Danish “Dorthe” is the name of a woman.
Great site BTW

This matches my result pretty well. The extent is reading slightly lower than area anomaly relative to mean.

Dave Middleton

Why do they always put a linear trend-line on the ice extent and temperature graphs?
These date clearly do not appear to be the result of linear functions.
If you fit a third or fourth order polynomial trend-line to the Arctic Sea Ice Extent graph, you’d have a much better fit…And you’d clearly see that the sea ice extent began to expand right about when the PDO shifted.
Too bad the satellite data don’t go back to the early 1900’s…This whole AGW fraud might have been avoided.

John Silver

Frederick Michael (09:19:32) :
………….
“I’d like to see a headline that starts with the words, “Break Out the Tar and Feathers.”
And the guillotines.

Laurence Kirk

@ LOL in Oreogn (09:30:22) :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie
You are absolutely right! And the Wikepdia quote from Mein Kampf that you point to says it all. People only actually expect and comprehend in others what they habitually they do themselves. So that the vast majority of honest people never expect to be lied to, and can hardly believe it when it happens. And even professional embellishers of the common or garden variety ( politicians? journalists? ambitious academics? stock promoters?) never expect THE BIG LIE. Nobody expects it, apart from the big liars themselves, and the occasional uniformed psychopath.
And if anthropogenic global warming were a stock, it would be a dotcom dream that has just run from 2c to $35, or a little Canadian gold company with a name like Bre-Ex. It’s what happens. The big lie is told and everyone belives it. And then one day suddenly we all go “Oops..”

TerryBixler

Very important people talking about very important things, with no facts to justify their importance or their views. Sounds normal for our government or the UN. Maybe Austrian is spoken and they need a translator. Or maybe a link to WUWT to get the ice extent and a look at the sun.

Jim Watson (09:00:53) :
The next step is getting the Alarmists to ADMIT they were wrong and that, I’m afraid, will take heaven AND Earth.
with perhaps some help from that third [and much hotter] place…

Pearland Aggie

Frederick Michael (09:19:32) :
Notice that the slope of the antarctic sea ice for May is about 4 million sq. km. per month. That’s more than twice the slope for the arctic and that means that the total is going to rise a lot over the next month (or more).
================
Unfortunately, this trend will be explained away by “a cooling offset” created by the ozone “hole” (another ridiculous farce propagated by bad science and federal research dollars).

Harry

Indiana Bones:
“In the face of these facts – and having the benefit of hindsight – how do these politicians plan to extract themselves from the backlash that is inevitable. Do they think they will not be held responsible for perpetrating an inhumane hoax?”
The left has painted themselves into a corner with AGW and will fight bitterly to maintain the hoax. This is very important to them for deep rooted ideological reasons, however; I’m not so certain exposing AGW as the hoax that it is will end up being that devastating to more people than an Al Gore or two. Why?
The political left will simply bury “Climate Change” and/or morph the hoax into two forms: 1. “Alarmism in support of a better environment for our children is no vice”. (Many of us have already heard that). 2. “We’ve never said what flat-earth wingnuts claimed we have said.”
The press will run interference and the vast middle of the electorate, (“moderates” & “independants”), who are politically incurious, will not know the difference.

The real agenda, as Dr. Lockwood puts it in the previous post, is “pre-emptive denial.” They know the earth is cooling, and they are pre-emptively denying the cold hard facts!

George Antunes

Anthony,
Let’s hope we get some unbiased facts from this expedition (NASA JPL?)…um probably asking for too much…
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-20090429.html
G

AEGeneral

Frederick Michael (09:19:32) :
There’s a news story coming that’s could bring down the AGW hoax like a house of cards. Compare this graph with the arctic graph above:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Notice that the slope of the antarctic sea ice for May is about 4 million sq. km. per month. That’s more than twice the slope for the arctic and that means that the total is going to rise a lot over the next month (or more). There is a good chance the all time HIGH record for sea ice worldwide will be broken. This is at such perfect variance with the idiotic pronouncements by the AGW fanatics that they won’t be able to dance away.
I’d like to see a headline that starts with the words, “Break Out the Tar and Feathers.”

Thanks for that link; but don’t hold your breath waiting for that headline anytime soon. The only thing propping this up now is the media, and they’ve become so politically vested in AGW being true that they’ll never let go of it no matter what.
Think “Baghdad Bob” here talking to the press with a 1,000-foot glacier floating behind him. “There is no global cooling here! No global cooling!”
I feel like I wake up in a parallel universe some mornings. Every time I think, in light of current observation, that this can’t go on much longer, it just keeps on going like the Energizer Bunny.

meemoe_uk

‘melting faster *than expected* ‘ can mean anything, just find someone who didn’t expect it to melt at all.
To their credit, the AGW media are careful to put these little disclaimers in, which, when it comes to bollocking time, will excuse many of wrong doing.

They will “misrepresent” the data until it puts them into a position to simply be marginalized due to their “exaggeration of reality”, we just have to keep the course and let them swerve back and forth and wait for the crash.
The Titanic comes to mind… Big Massive Ship thought Unsinkable…chunk of ice…and you know..

UK Sceptic

Strange, not a whiff of climate alarmism on the BBC news so far. How could they have missed this golden opportunity?

John Peter

Steven Goddard please note that Dorthe Dahl-Jensen is actually a female. She is apparently on the AGW side of the argument and do not forget that we have the Copenhagen conference coming up in December and the Danish politicians would not like to see that conference finishing without a result – the “right” result.

meemoe_uk (10:33:29) :
‘melting faster *than expected* ‘ can mean anything, just find someone who didn’t expect it to melt at all.

Indeed, just like the recent expedition to the Arctic that initially said that they had measured ‘thicker than expected sea ice’ but reported results within the usual range for the areas they measured.

Steve Goddard

santitafarella ,
Thanks for pointing us to realclimate.
None of us had ever heard of that before and it will be very exciting to read what “real climate scientists” have to say about this important issue.
Interpreting simple X-Y graphs is well beyond the capabilities of most of us with only advanced degrees in science in engineering.

Harry

santitafarella, you reccomend “Real Climate” as the sole scientific source? No others? Climate Audit per chance? Or must the site “comply” with the “correct” viewpoint?

John Galt

The media are no longer concerned about fairness and objectivity. The post-modern journalist is an activist first and foremost. Facts don’t matter. Facts often confuse the narrative. All that matters is public opinion and public policy are steered towards the greater good.
The same goes for science. Facts and objectivity are also o longer important. Advocacy is the new science. Another problem: Many (if not most) scientists depend upon government funding. No crisis, no funding. Since scientists who don’t work can’t promote the greater good, they may have to exaggerate or fudge a little here and there.

Don B

As the oceans lose heat (falsifying the AGW theory, by the way) global sea ice is likely to prosper.
http://climatesci.org/2009/05/05/have-changes-in-ocean-heat-falsified-the-global-warming-hypothesis-a-guest-weblog-by-william-dipuccio/