Guest post by Steve Goddard
As reported here two weeks ago, April 30 is the last safe date to recover explorers from the Arctic. The people who rescued Pen Hadow from the Arctic in May, 2003 said this :
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
In today’s Catlin update they say:
“The ice team are positioned in the path of a huge storm. Pen reported this morning that winds are picking up, and the Ops team can see that over the next 36 hours the team will experience blizzard conditions with winds of up to 40 knots and a strong possibility of heavy snowfall.”
By the time the storm is over, they will have reached what has been described by the experts as the last safe date for recovery, both for them and for the rescuers. They are still 542 km from the pole, which is 82 days away at their average rate of travel so far.
What is the sensible thing for them to do when the delayed Twin Otter plane (hopefully) arrives later in the week?
Advice:
1. Read the Old Testament. There are several gems in there about fools.
2. Meanwhile, the insurance agent that has funded this comedy hour should quickly and quietly remove said explorers with their bio-data and core samples, and bury it in the back yard back at the headoffice.
3. Finally, consider this a failed try at cooking the books. The souffle has fallen and should be thrown in the trash.
At that temperature, 1000 calories is not replacement. They must be consuming their own fat and muscle. They are in bigger trouble than they think. In fact, I’d guess that their judgment is impaired. Caring adults need to assume command.
=======================================
Reply to Steven Goddard (17:28:54) : “Why would anyone wish for bad things to happen to the Catlin Crew? They obviously believe very strongly in what they are doing, and are suffering immensely for their beliefs.”
Don’t be angry for this reply…but it is NOT about people who “believe very strongly in what they are doing”.
It is about ego, sponsorship money, a National Geographic video (more ego), meglomania…but it pretty-much boils down to the same reason James Hansen makes his declarations: self serving five minutes of fame of each day of being on the world stage. I really don’t think there is any depth to their scientific knowledge…I equate them to Al Gore and Henry Waxman: give them a few “facts” and they exploit them for personal gain. It’s all about getting your mug on T.V.
I don’t really think anyone wants the Catlin folks to perish…but I really do think they need to learn a lesson…I was hoping for a badly frostbit nose…or perhaps total failure of their data recorders, etc. I just get so tired of hype. Today: it is swine flu. Last year, West Nile Virus, before that: SARS…and asteroids destoying us from space, yadayadayada *yawn*.
Typo fix on last post: Megalomania (megalomaniac)
Catlin synonym:
Main Entry:meg*a*lo*ma*nia
Pronunciation:*me-g*-l*-*m*-n*-*, -ny*
Function:noun
a mental disorder marked by feelings of personal omnipotence and grandeur
–meg*a*lo*ma*ni*ac \-*m*-n*-*ak\ adjective or noun
If they stay in the tents, keeping as warm and sedentary as possible, they will lose between .5 and 1 pound/day. Not a disaster yet, but…
IMHO – with each passing day the chances of all three catlin team members surviving drops.
1000 calories a day in a freezing blizzard…
And if the freezing blizzard continues and they run out of supplies – what then.
A debacle is in the making.
Mark (10:36:26) :
What a cluster*&#$.
clusterGORE?
A personal opinion, hunch, etc…
On the motivation for Anthropogenic Global Warming Belief.
It seems to me that inherent in AGW belief system is the view the humanity, and by extension, individual humans, are pivotal agents affecting the natural world around us. The implication is that we are powerful agents.
If climate change is fundamentally driven by natural forces outside of Human Control, then we are powerless in the face of those natural forces.
The desire for control over dangerous, threatening, frightening natural forces perhaps is tied directly to our survival instinct. Because, how many times have our ancestors been slaughtered by adverse natural forces in one form or another.
Hence the attraction of AGW, it provides the illusion of power, where there is none. It becomes a “warm blanket” (no pun intended) for the fears of the individual.
Hence the agitation when the AGW Myth is questioned, the illusion is in danger of being exposed, the solace of the warm blanket to be taken away, and the person exposed to the direct experience of the fear of powerlessness which is then experienced as a threat to life itself.
The AGW Myth is like the Witch Craze Belief in the 1600s. Imagine yourself a poor farmer reliant on a pair of cows for your livelihood. One gets sick, it must be due to an act of witchcraft, someone marginal in the community is blamed and punished. Whether the cow dies of lives is luck, but the taking of action allows an experience of effective control, and the fear of powerlessness in the face of forces that are not understood and controlled can be masked for a time.
Perhaps the Catlin teams commitment to the cause is driven by a deeper need to avoid feeling powerless.
This discussion of the plight of these vainglorious fools is based on what we have been told by a source that has proven itself to be a veritable fountain of misinformation. We are being played. I’m not saying they aren’t out there on the ice. I’m just saying that to trust information on caloric availabilty is a little silly when nothing else they have provided has proven accurate or useful.
Out of thier minds, out of time, out of a comic book, out on thin ice.
Who knows the truth here.
As the poster above states, we haven’t seen one ounce of proof that they are truly out there. Might as well flip a coin.
Head..they are nuts
Tails..they are faking it.
Steveh
Re keeping track of location data. Here are all the lon lat data I have to date converted to decimal deg. Some of the data were gleaned from Google cache.
28-Feb Start estimate,-130,81.5
06-Mar,-130.0755556,82.005
11-Mar,-129.7172222,81.92583333
20-Mar,-129.6622222,81.91083333
31-Mar,-129.7747222,83.04027778
01-Apr,-129.5527778,83.18611111
02-Apr,-129.4075,83.33138889
03-Apr,-129.4041667,83.48805556
04-Apr,-129.335,83.62694444
08-Apr,-128.9,83.87
09-Apr,-128.975,83.86361111
10-Apr,-128.9963889,83.88361111
11-Apr,-128.8330556,83.84722222
12-Apr,-128.9286111,83.93583333
15-Apr,-127.9191667,84.27777778
16-Apr,-127.9202778,84.37833333
17-Apr,-127.8419444,84.46611111
18-Apr,-127.7997222,84.52527778
20-Apr,-126.4280556,84.66
20-Apr,84.66,-126.4280556
20-Apr,-126.4280556,84.66
21-Apr,-126.1647222,84.75888889
22-Apr,-125.9116667,84.88194444
24-Apr,-124.2030556,85.01722222
25-Apr,-124.1541667,85.10333333
26-Apr,-124.1077778,85.11388889
27-Apr,-123.9616667,85.12611111
28-Apr,-124.0413889,85.19333333
See my earlier post on the location info on this page at (16:13:34)
Also, the locater beacon data is continuously updated here:
http://www.solaradata.com/Solara.kml which can be opened with Google Earth. I also make a kml file and plot the above data as well.
Resupply seems really iffy. See
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/ops_room.aspx?categoryID=31
where it states:
“Given the increased flying time and necessary additional fuel stop, clear weather is required in a total of 7 locations over a duration of approximately 12 hours, to enable the re-supply flight to make the round trip from its original destination of Resolute, via Eureka, and a mid-ocean fuel stop before touching down beside the Ice Team.
Retracing the route, the weather must be clear in each of the same locations for the return trip.”
“MattN (10:14:39) : AMSR-E shows that there is more ice right now than any other time on this date (in that time series).”
It does show that. And the Eisdicken–ice thickness–is showing it is also thicker than expected.
JAXA
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Eisdicken
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/28/inconvenient-eisdicken/
I certainly hope they come home safely and that no one is lost trying to save them. But if the worst happens, it would have to count as an everlasting irony that they froze to death in the cause of global warming. You can’t make this stuff up. Life has a way of visiting unbelievable ironies on us.
St. Peter: Hello, welcome to heaven. I hope you qualify to get in. What did you do with your time on earth?
Pen et al: We froze to death in the great cause of man made global warming!
St. Peter: You what?
Pen et al: We were trying to prove that the earth was over heating and we froze to death in the attempt.
St. Peter: (Calling back over his shoulder) Hey, come up here you guys and listen to this one. You won’t believe it. These guys say they were gathering proof of global warming and somehow froze to death in the attempt.
Other Heavenly Official: (turning to the expeditioners) I’m sorry to hear you froze to death, but I’m sure it was for a good cause. Did you make a full and honest report of everything that happened on you expedition?
Pen et al: Well, we weren’t really trying to give an honest report. We were more concerned with proving a point than with telling the unvarnished truth, if you know what I mean. So we may have stretched a few stories and left out a few things that happened. But it was in a good cause, wasn’t it? We were trying to save the world.
Other Heavenly Official: Well, I understand, if you believe you are right and feel that’s more important than telling the truth, this really isn’t the place for you. But don’t worry, I think we have the perfect place for you. Not exactly heaven, but a wonderfully comfortable and restorative place for anyone who is very cold. In fact, it’s a place where you are guaranteed to warm up and where you can bask in the eternal proof that the sins of man causes great warming. How does that sound?
Pen et al: Could we go there in the name of science? We wouldn’t want to do anything just for our own comfort.
Other Heavenly Official: You bet, and you won’t even need to take those sledges with you. You won’t need radar or any other equipment to find the heat where you are going.
Pen et al: Oh happy day. How do we get there from here?
St. Peter: Oh you can’t miss it, just follow the warmth. It’s all downhill from here. Oh, and be sure to post you findings on your website when you get there. And you won’t need to lie about it this time. You will certainly feel the heat.
Just Want Truth… (22:05:40) :
“MattN (10:14:39) : AMSR-E shows that there is more ice right now than any other time on this date (in that time series).”
All of seven years, wow!
It does show that. And the Eisdicken–ice thickness–is showing it is also thicker than expected.
And yet the average ice thickness a year ago was 2.8m ranging up to ~7m in the regions that were surveyed by the plane. So finding ice ranging from 2m-4m thickness there this year shouldn’t surprise anyone.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080717_Figure5.png
“The Daily Show” on Tuesday night was promising that Wednesday’s show would include a reporter celebrating from the North Pole. It’s good to see everyone observing the end of the chilly season.
Robert Bateman (21:05:19) :
Out of thier minds, out of time, out of a comic book, out on thin ice.
Who knows the truth here.
As the poster above states, we haven’t seen one ounce of proof that they are truly out there. Might as well flip a coin.
Head..they are nuts
Tails..they are faking it.
*********************
Based on the comments of others here – I can’t be bothered to read the Catlin website – it seems possible we are being played, to maximize publicity and drama. This expedition has reported that it has lived on the edge of disaster since their sleeping bags allegedly got wet and frozen, yet somehow they carry on. Hope they make it back. If so, it will be in spite of themselves, by putting better people at risk to save their hides.
At one point I was really concerned for these people. But now I’m beginning to wonder if anyone has ever really been in any danger.
1000 calories a day? How do we know; because they said so? After all the transparent honesty about bio-data and so on, I find it hard to believe anything emanating from Catlin, especially ‘from the ice’. All I can see now is a cosy, carefully scripted soap opera that is building up to a predictable dramatic climax. Fictional Screen Writing 101 ‘The Melodrama’.
Let’s see how gaunt and frost-bitten they really are after a sensational last second rescue from the rapidly melting ice. Will the plane make it as it fights to lift from the increasingly water-logged disintegrating ice floes? Almost…almost…YES! They’ve made it! If only they could have saved the polar bear! And now for the main feature. Spare me, please.
Steven Hill (11:06:34) :
I expected that guy who was going to Kayak the ice free arctitc ocean to be on his way by now, afterall, all I see on NBC, CNN, CBS and ABC is the arctic is melting at an alarming rate.
That was Lewis Gordin Pugh. You can read his “Expedition Journal” at http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?page_id=157
… except you can’t.
If you try the “read Lewis’ diary” link to
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/wp-admin/page.php?action=edit&post=283
You just get to a username/password login page. The same happens for the other link on the same page. Comments are closed of course.
He probably wants us to forget his “Expedition”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/09/polar-defense-project-deletes-the-tough-questions/
Cathy wrote:
Right. Mother’s Day is coming up. Her scriptwriter probably remembered.
POI. Did you know, apparently the Arctic gets its name from the Greek word “arktos”, from my trusy 1925 Pocket English Dictionary, meaning, wait for it, “bear”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now not a lot of people know that! :-))
And as the Catlin crew’s adventure comes to an end, we can but speculate as to what might happen.
(Previously posted on a prior thread – take #2).
Black Over Ice.
FADE IN.
OUTSIDE: LATE EVENING – APRIL – ARCTIC SEA ICE.
– A weary group of three explorers, two men and one woman trudge across the ice. A pair of scientists, and their photographer, on a heroic mission to measure the rapidly thinning arctic ice.
Leader: (Stops, lifts GPS Unit and examines readout) “Stop chaps – This is the resupply point”.
Woman: “Thank goodness – I’m exhausted – Oh the Cold – the Cold. – Are we on time?”
Photographer: (Clumsily Drops Camera – Mutters) “Damn frostbite.”
Leader: (Responds) “30 minutes and the resupply plane will be here.”
– The three unpack the equipment sled and assemble the tent that will protect them from the numbing cold.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: HELICOPTER
– 3 Men in dark suits, sit in the helicopter cabin. The final rays of the setting sun slash across the shining ice. In the distance can be seen the bright orange expedition tent.
– The man in the rear seat lifts a military grade, .50 calibre sniper rifle and loads the first bullet into the chamber.
CUT TO.
INTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT
Woman: (Cocks Head) “I can hear something.”
Leader: “It’s the resupply plane!”
Photographer: (Turns to Leader) “I’ve gotta leave on this flight – I’m dying on this f#@king ice.”
Leader: (Outraged): “You will not! Are you a coward? – We’re saving the bloody planet out here!”
Photographer: (Rips off glove, revealing a hand reeking with decaying flesh) “What the hell is this then?”
Leader: (Puffs out chest): “A necessary Sacrifice. You can’t do great things without Sacrifice, and proving this ice is melting from Global Warming is a Great Thing.”
Photographer: (Grimaces) “It’s bloody minus 35 degrees out there… All our equipment is broken… and were running out of Food!”
Leader: (Triumph gleaming in his eyes – lifts an ice auger). “We have this – and it’s enough. – Now get the hell outside.”
Photographer: (Hangs head…) “Alright… Alright…”
– The photographer and the woman both exit the tent; the Leader puts the ice auger down and pats it affectionally before following them outside.
CUT TO:
EXTERIOR: EXPEDITION TENT – ON THE ICE
– The three explorers stare up at the hovering, black helicopter, as the side door smoothly rolls back.
Woman: (Non-plussed) “Why is it a black helicopter?”
Photographer: “Oh… Damn!”
– The photographer turns and starts to run away from the tent, the helicopter floats like a stone 10 meters above the ice, the final rays of the sun flash off the tinted windscreen – a matt black barrel slides through the open doorway – a sudden gun shot rings out.
– The photographer pitches forward through a red mist of his own blood and collapses onto the ice.
– The woman screams and runs for the tent; a second gun shot cracks like a whip through the twilight. She falls before the tent, her blood gushing from a gaping wound in her chest.
Leader: (Outraged): “What on Earth is going on? Stop this at once!”
– The leader waves both arms widely. The matt black barrel pivots slightly to bear upon him.
Leader: (Screaming with rage): “I order you to stop! Stop I say – Land that Helicopter Immediately!”
– A single shot rings out. The Leader falls back onto the ice, a look of stunned disbelief on his face, his head rolls to the side and he can see the Sun sliding below the ice as he utters his final words.
Leader: (Faintly, Dying): “But, we’re saving the planet”.
– With a smooth roar of power the helicopter rises up and turns away, the gun barrel disappears and the door slides smoothly back into place.
CUT TO:
OVERHEAD SHOT:
– The Tent door flaps in the breeze, the three bodies lie about like discarded refuse on pink ice. A pair of Polar Bears enters the field of view and saunter over to the nearest piece of available meat.
CUT TO:
INTERIOR: MORNING – LONDON OFFICE
– The office is expansive and opulent; a large Van Gogh graces one wall, and a sculpture by Rodin stands in the corner. The office windows behind a magnificent desk overlook the heart of the London Financial District. A very well dressed executive sits at the desk, before him stands his head of public relations and media advisor.
– The executive taps on the front page of a written report on the desk in front of him.
Executive: “So, no Polar Bears are in the report.”
Advisor: “Yes Sir, Polar Bears are of course – how might one say it – cuddly.”
Executive: (Nods) “Just so. – And the deaths are attributed to – what?”
Advisor: “The ice, certainly, it was the thinning ice that killed them, they fell through it you see, drowned in the icy waters, and the bodies were never recovered. A Tragedy”
Executive: (Leans back, considering…) “And evidence, do we have some evidence.”
Advisor: (Lifts a cloth bag onto the desk and opens it, withdrawing a small, 2 foot, ice auger) “We have this, the leaders very own ice auger.”
Executive: “His own auger?”
Advisor: (Shrugs) “Well a shorter copy.” (Arches eyebrow) “There is of course, no one who can say otherwise”.
Executive: (Studies the Auger…) “So the ice is less than 2 feet thick. They fall through it, and drown.”
Advisor: (Smug) “Precisely Sir.”
Executive: (Stares at the Advisor) “And all because of man made emissions of CO2 which cause Global Warming.”
Advisor: (With a knowing smile) “… Correct … Of Course Sir.”
Executive: (Smiles) “Excellent. Put it on the wire, this has to have maximum coverage.”
Advisor: (Straightens) “Consider it done Sir.”
Executive: “Announce a Charity ball to honour their sacrifice, and charge a 1000 pounds a head, set up the presenters and invite the Prince – he’s always good for an endorsement.”
Advisor: (Smiles) “I will get back to you with location, dates and a guest list Sir.”
Executive: “Good work.”
– The Advisor leaves and the Executive is left alone in his office. He walks over too the wide window and looks out over the city, his city as he likes to think of it. There is a light dusting of snow still falling, – it’s late April, almost May. He absently twirls the auger in his hand. He puts the other hand on the Rodin, stroking the smooth marble; it has always reassured him, this statue, its permanence, its beauty, its silky smooth touch.
Executive: (Quietly to himself): “So much to do.” (Glances at the unusual autumn snow) “And so little time to do it.”
FADE OUT.
Recent photos on Catlin show Ice thickness measurements being made close to a pressure ridge and currentl show a tape measure with weighted gizmo bar being used to measure thickness.
“Also, note a sun spot(?) on right of centre below the equator.”
Amazingly, it’s a Cycle 23 event, as is evident from the low latitude.
I thought we put a stake through the heart of 23!
I just LOVE these final comments, when the moderators no longer care and have moved on to the next threads. They are pure enjoyment!
If it is all real though (and, incredibly, it probably is), and if they can survive what is coming next, they will have weeks of solid ice on which to land a rescue or resupply plane. I hope they make it. If they know what they are doing they should be OK. But I would hate to be there myself: freezing half to death, ill-advised and misinformed, with that horrid feeling that one might have made a big mistake.
from APB:
“What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”
So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.
I agree, but maybe they insisted on using the paper from AL Gore’s science test. Those “D’s” can come in handy.