Guest post by Steven Goddard
Hell Hath No Fury….
Catlin team member Ann Daniels had another very difficult day.
Today has been a difficult day of highs and lows, particularly for Ann, whose morning got off to a particularly bad start. In order to power the different technical components of the kit, the team use large batteries, which need to be heated to a certain temperature in order to extract the maximum amount of power. The process of heating batteries involves Ann, sitting by her stoves for several hours, using a specially insulated piece of equipment to capture the steam from boiling water, in order to get the batteries to the correct temperature.
Ann reached her lowest point of the expedition so far, when after tending the boiling pans of water for several hours, she realised she had pre-heated the wrong battery and had accidently picked up the dead battery from the previous day. It was a painful and frustrating realisation at the end of a cold morning.
On the plus side, at the end of the day, Ann felt warm enough to take off her sledging jacket when getting into her sleeping bag for the night. This is the first time in the 41 days of the expedition so far that she has felt warm enough for this luxury. She adds that she was still wearing 3 pairs of trousers, 2 thermal top layers, 2 hats and 4 pairs of gloves, but still, quite a landmark in the expedition so far!
Consider the following scenario. All goes well and the team arrives home safely some time in the next six weeks. Now, suppose that the Arctic continues to show recovery this summer, and the realization sinks in that the very premise of the expedition may have been flawed.
Such a surface Survey has never before been attempted, and the need for the information has never been greater. Current estimates for the disappearance of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover vary from 100 years away down to just 4 years from now. Whatever happens, the consequences of its meltdown will be of global significance in terms of sea level rise(due to thermal expansion of the oceans), the geo-politics of energy resources, rainfall patterns and the availability of water supplies and, of course, the impact on biodiversity, including polar bear.
How would she feel? One can only speculate. But as the Catlin team suffers on the ground, the satellites are watching the ice recover.
Since 2007, the global sea ice area anomaly has increased by more than 3,000,000 km2 and is now more than 600,000 km2 above the 1979-2000 mean. You could fit England, Spain, France and Mexico inside the recovered ice area.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Arctic sea ice extent is rapidly approaching an eight year high for the date:
.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Arctic ice extent is converging on the 1979-2000 mean:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
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Leon Brozyna (20:53:16) :
Sadly, it won’t be for naught. If nothing else, the proponents of this belief system are skilled propagandists. They will point to the ’success’ of this effort and show how thin the ice is, even if the extent increases.
Expect the effort to be cut short because of the amount of ice that opens up; proof of how fast the ice is melting. I bet it was planned this way.
No science, just a great propaganda coup.
And the implication of a slow start to the summer melt is that they will have too stay out on the ice for a longer time… with consequent health effects.
Peter (00:03:42) :
Whatever happens, the consequences of its meltdown will be of global significance in terms of sea level rise(due to thermal expansion of the oceans)
Haven’t they got this the wrong way round? Isn’t the so-called meltdown because of ocean temperature rise?
Also, surely the albedo of the ice depends on it’s extent and not on it’s thickness.
Young grasshopper – do not be mystified by the presence of “Circular Reasoning” in the sacred green texts. For while much of the world is truly mysterious, the holy scibblings of the faithful of Gaia hold portents of great things. Patience is justified – eradicate all doubt from your mind and believe as we all do.
Could someone tell me what this small spot inside the blue circle is? It appears on almost all images from March to date:
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Disc.jpg
Flanagan (02:54:07) :
About the recovery:
2007 was a very special year with a very special wind pattern, everybody knows that. Projections based on actual models estimate an ice-free Artic in the summer not before 2030-2040.
The question one really needs to answer is: will 2009 confirm the multi-decennal declining trend or not? For the moment, 2009 is below 2008. Looking at the seasonal sea ice extent evolution
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg
a confirmation of the actual decline trend would place a summer average extent of about 7 million km^2. If it is above that, then we could speak of a recovery.
Flanagan – Lets consider a real long term trend appropriate to the actual time periods that might begin to matter to the ecosystems operating on a planet – as opposed to the time periods noticable to the “Mayfly” humans that live on it.
From the Conclusions: Ref: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/11/making-holocene-spaghetti-sauce-by-proxy/
– Besides the MWP discussion: 80-90% of the Holocene period (last 10-12.000 years) has been warmer than today. The last 6000 years, the general temperature trend has been steady cooling. The temperature levels in the Little Ice Age were the lowest in the Holocene period.
The key thing that the Pro AGW Camp needs to do is show that “Natural Variation” of the climate has stopped, and that “Man Made Variation” of the climate has taken over.
The behaviour of the Arctic Ice over the last few years could well be noise – how can you tell that it is not noise.
BTW – If you don’t consider sea ice anomaly to be a valid quantitative measure, you probably shouldn’t waste everybody’s time commenting on a thread about Arctic ice.
It’s certainly not valid to attach significance to a comparison of global sea ice anomaly in the way you have done. During 2008 your metric of choice went down from ~1.1Mm^2 to -2.6Mm^2 and back up to 0Mm^2! How can you possibly attach significance to that, and if you do why weren’t you posting here about the drop in the anomaly by ~3.7Mm^2?
E.M.Smith (14:11:46);
Phil. (11:39:24) provided a link into Catlin’s website, describing their power supplies in some detail. His comment included the meat of their discussion.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/Perran_on_Power_Supplies_for_the_expedition
First, they have (or had/intended to have) a methanol fuel cell, in an insulated pack with its fuel and batteries. The waste-heat keeps all the components warm. This is a steady-state generator, with the batteries providing surge.
Second, they have a pair of ‘superperformance’ non-rechargable batteries (tho they only weigh 1.6 Kg – I was picturing something much bigger) which are the ‘steamed’ units. An interesting passage about these batteries that Phil. did not quote is:
“To maintain temperature after heating, a ‘super’ insulated tube is used that holds two batteries. The insulation is used in satellites and is so good that the only heat loss from the tube is down the electrical leads that bring the battey connections out.”
Ah-ha. That’s more like it. With that kind of insulation efficiency, your thermistor/thermostat system sounds like a shoo-in. (This very thing has gotten close attention with the prospect of molten salt fuel cells for cars – the rub being they’re yellow-hot and cannot be allowed to solidify – so they’re discharged back through themselves for standby heat.)
With all the wind, I’m surprised we don’t see a little wind-generator.
Wal Mart is selling a very lightweight and quiet little weed-eater for $70; I’m buying one to cannabalize the engine for a backpacking power supply project.
The Honda EX 7 you link to looks like … something I bet Ann opts for next time! 😉
On that power supplies page is a nice photo of the crew trudging off across the vast white … and they have just marched across a set of visible snowmobile tracks. Presumably, this was during training … 😉
F Rasmin (03:23:03) :
What is all this’Someone should save them’, and ‘They should step in and save them’. Apart from who this ’someone’ or ‘Them’ is, the Catlin group are volunteers. The West is a democracy where we can do what we like so long as it does not frighten the horses! Next time these pleaders go trail walking or fishing, ‘Someone’ or ‘Them’ might come along to ‘Save’ them!
F – I think that I know and appreciate where you are coming from – however the general case is more nuanced.
SCENARIO 1: (LOW CULPABILITY) You are at a favoured holiday spot near a river, a young family is nearby, the father is setting up the Bar-B-Que, the Mother is tending a noisy 2 year old. You see a 5 year old skip down to the end of the pier, trip on a loose board, and fall in and sink like a stone. You realise that you are the only one who has seen it. What do you do?
SCENARIO 2: (INCREASED CULPABILITY) You are at a favoured holiday spot near a river, late in the evening drinking beers and whiskey with your mates. One realises his had too much, staggers away to throw up, his staggers get away from him and he falls into the river and sinks like a stone. You realise that you have been drinking “Light Beer” all night and are the only one who has seen it – what do you do?
In both cases – I’m sure that you like most people would do everything that you could to raise the alarm and attempt to save the child and your friend.
So what about the Catlin Expedition?
I would recommend that should a full rescue effort be made, than all associated costs should be tallied up and the expeditioners presented with the bill.
It’s better to have rescue resources available for everyone – just charge them for it.
Dan Lee (04:33:32) :
Why do I see lawsuits in the future between members of that expedition? If someone had such a bad day that it has to be discussed on the blog, I wonder what else is going on in that little group?
What if someone decides they’ve had enough and wants to get off that frozen treadmill and go home? What if, with the lowered decision-making capacity that we’re already seeing hints of in their own accounts, what if that person is convinced/coerced into staying? And what if that results in health problems later?
I’m just asking. I can’t think of a single valuable thing that will come out of this expedition beyond its central purpose, which is to increase the name-recognition of Catlin Group Limited (Creative Risk Management Solutions and Excellent Financial Security to Clients Worldwide.)
Perhaps they have all purchased insurance policies from Catlin to cover such lawsuits.
Mike Bryant (05:08:26) :
F Rasmin said, “What is all this’Someone should save them’, and ‘They should step in and save them’. Apart from who this ’someone’ or ‘Them’ is, the Catlin group are volunteers. The West is a democracy where we can do what we like so long as it does not frighten the horses!”
That is a very good point. I think that nanny governments take advantage of this very human tendency to want to save everyone who they believe needs saving.
My daughter decided that she wanted to have her last child at home. I was not consulted in this decision, but knew it was not a foolhardy one since she lived close to the hospital and had employed a very good midwife. When the day came, a well-meaning neighbor came over to the house insisting that my son-in-law and I force her to the hospital for the delivery. The neighbor had to be repeatedly urged to leave the house.
Our sweet little Grace came into the world very easily and is now three years old.
My daughter hasn’t spoken to her neighbor since.
God protect us from well-meaning neighbors.
This is still a free country despite all indications to the contrary.
Mike – Their Fear = Your Restriction.
Well meaning, good intentions, roads to hell, unintended consequences etc, etc.
There are plenty here who hear you.
Is it wrong to hope for a tragic failure of this expedition?
FredG (17:09:29) :
Is it wrong to hope for a tragic failure of this expedition?
———
As long as you are in no position to influence that outcome there is no moral dilemma.
Dismissing the superstitious notion that your thoughts might exert some effect on the situation, you’re really left with three considerations; socially, what will people think of you for thinking that?, emotionally, does it upset you that you think what you think? and, more interestingly, what are the psychological mechanics of wishing your adversary ill?
I don’t imagine that many of us here at WUWT hope that this trio will achieve what they want, which is to reinforce, reinvigorate and glorify a cause that we find unworthy.
Frederick Michael (13:38:54) :
However, I can tell you from watching that map (which is updated daily) that the ice in the Bering sea is more than 2 weeks old. It’s obviously not multi-year ice, but it formed months ago and has been consistently greater than the 1979-2000 avg all this winter.
The Bering sea ice has grown by ~0.3Mm^2 over the last couple of weeks that will be the first to melt. Typically the Bering ice melts rapidly, likely all gone by the end of May.
Nasif Nahle (16:34:08) :
your link is bad. error 404
RE:
I would guess it might be Britspeak or use of the “Royal We,” as in the (supposed) classic from Margaret Thatcher: “We have become a grandmother.”
(The U.S. and Britain: 2 countries separated by a common language)
By the way, if the arctic multi-year ice accumulated over a long period were melting, would that not lead to either thermal contraction of the oceans due to lowering of the ocean temperature or a decrease in thermal expansion, thus either tending to lower sea levels or reduce their rise, at least in the short term?
Steven Goddard (15:22:22) :
Phil.
Since you have started writing in the third person “we” – I’m curious who you are writing for other than yourself and the mouse in your pocket.
I would guess it might be Britspeak or use of the “Royal We,” as in the (supposed) classic from Margaret Thatcher: “We have become a grandmother.”
(The U.S. and Britain: 2 countries separated by a common language)
I don’t think the use of ‘we’ is exclusively British – didn’t Hilary Clinton say “we are the President” ? I think it is more to do with the political arrogance of the ruling elites, irrespective of which side of the Atlantic they originate. 😉
.
>> the media will ultimately turn against those whom they
>>have finally come to believe have duped them
I think this is likely, for the media are incredibly naive about the real world around them in general and science in particular. They may well believe what they are being ‘sold’ by the Green lobby – especially as it is being backed by government, who they always like to suck up to.
The BBC’s Hard Talk, which is normally very probing, did an interview with a wind energy proponent, which was almost fawning in character. Had this been a political interview Stephen Sakkur would have had the required knowledge to probe deeper, but he was clearly out of his depth in this interview.
The interviewee repeated said the wind always blows somewhere, an assertion that was never challenged. Had Sakkur known that all Denmark was without wind for 54 days in 2002 the interview might have taken another tack. Likewise, take a look at this graph, which demonstrates that the whole of the UK is subject to the same wind patterns. (note – a monthly average output of 15% is not going to keep the home-fires burning, let alone the lights on.)
http://www.ref.org.uk/Files/wind.overview.2007.(ii).pdf
Shame this graph does not do weekly averages, rather than monthly, as this would show many weeks with no power at all.
.
jorgekafkazar (08:46:03) :
Peter (00:03:42) said: “…Also, surely the albedo of the ice depends on it’s [sic] extent and not on it’s [sic] thickness.”
Albedo is a physical property of materials and, as such, is independent of extent. Average albedo of the entire polar cap is related to ice extent, but is a complex parameter …
Surely what Peter was talking about was the total albedo of the arctic ice, which is not independent of extent.
PS: Keep up with the “sics”–we’ll larn ’em yet!
==============
James P (10:11:53) wrote:
“large batteries, which need to be heated to a certain temperature in order to extract the maximum amount of power. Doesn’t just using them warm them up? My laptop is warming my knees right now…”
It’s not the battery that gets warm, it’s the micro-processor (CPU).
Another rich British adventurer who has never lived in the real world is about to embark on a mission to acquire fame and power….sorry, I meant save the planet
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/12/david-de-rothschild-plastiki-pacific
The plastic water bottle epitomises everything about this throwaway, disposable society,” said de Rothschild
He should tell that to the billions of people over the last century who have finally had regular clean drinking water, juice and pasteurised milk added to their daily diet because of plastic bottles. Most of our ancestors had neither – a fact that escapes environmentalists.
It’s not the battery that gets warm, it’s the micro-processor (CPU)
The CPU has a cooling fan, the battery doesn’t, so sometimes this happens:
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/07/28/another_dell_laptop_burns/
I realise that’s not meant to be normal behaviour, but all batteries have internal resistance, which results in heat when current flows in either direction, so they get warm when charging too. If you don’t believe me, take one out during charging or after a period of active use (e.g. not just on standby)…
Phil,
OK – I’ll excuse your use of the word “we.” But not your criticism of using normalized data, because normalization is the very reason that “we” are able to compare area trends at different times of year. All fields of science (particularly Arctic ice measurements) use normalized data, and your complaint is absurd.
Pierre:
Again, why didn’t they use snow machines or dog sleds?
Just a guess….but too cold.
E.M.Smith:
oh, and ether in the fuel works way cold
What about oil and other lubricants for generators?
Aron:
The english gentleman worried about plastic bottles ignores that these will not last for ever, sunlight makes it polymerize, break into small parts, etc. these came from nature and will be recycled by nature itself. Once again we think ourselves more important than we really are and we also project this illusion to the objects we manufacture. These and us are but fleeting shadows in geological and astronomical time. Beings of the future will mine our bones out from phosphates deposits.
I don;t think they are going to get to the pole unless the ice doesn’t melt this year.
From the Catlin site just now.
”
Weather Cloudy
-36°C℃
Present location
83°56’09″N
128° 55’ 43” W
Total distance travelled 251.13 km
Average daily distance 5.84 km
Estimated distance to North Pole 673.39 km
Time on ICE 43 days ”
This is the same as yesterday so has not been updated yet.
They say they did 12.2 km today.
The insulation is used in satellites and is so good that the only heat loss from the tube is down the electrical leads that bring the battey (sic) connections out.
So why do they have to spend hours steaming them?
Of note: List of CPU power dissipations. This page covers from the early CPUs through the later Intel and AMD processors including dual core and quad core.
Was there a link? I know CPU’s get warm, but so does any battery charging or discharging, thanks to internal resistance. This is only noticeable when the currents in either direction are significant, but a laptop battery delivering 20-30W will get quite warm, as you will discover if you take it out immediately after use.
One of my hobbies is flying electric model aircraft, where the wattages are rather higher and battery cooling is a major consideration!
What puzzles me about the Catlin setup is that simply using their equipment and keeping the batteries well insulated should be sufficient. No wonder things are going so slowly if they have to spend hours steaming them…