Guest post by Steven Goddard
Hell Hath No Fury….
Catlin team member Ann Daniels had another very difficult day.
Today has been a difficult day of highs and lows, particularly for Ann, whose morning got off to a particularly bad start. In order to power the different technical components of the kit, the team use large batteries, which need to be heated to a certain temperature in order to extract the maximum amount of power. The process of heating batteries involves Ann, sitting by her stoves for several hours, using a specially insulated piece of equipment to capture the steam from boiling water, in order to get the batteries to the correct temperature.
Ann reached her lowest point of the expedition so far, when after tending the boiling pans of water for several hours, she realised she had pre-heated the wrong battery and had accidently picked up the dead battery from the previous day. It was a painful and frustrating realisation at the end of a cold morning.
On the plus side, at the end of the day, Ann felt warm enough to take off her sledging jacket when getting into her sleeping bag for the night. This is the first time in the 41 days of the expedition so far that she has felt warm enough for this luxury. She adds that she was still wearing 3 pairs of trousers, 2 thermal top layers, 2 hats and 4 pairs of gloves, but still, quite a landmark in the expedition so far!
Consider the following scenario. All goes well and the team arrives home safely some time in the next six weeks. Now, suppose that the Arctic continues to show recovery this summer, and the realization sinks in that the very premise of the expedition may have been flawed.
Such a surface Survey has never before been attempted, and the need for the information has never been greater. Current estimates for the disappearance of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover vary from 100 years away down to just 4 years from now. Whatever happens, the consequences of its meltdown will be of global significance in terms of sea level rise(due to thermal expansion of the oceans), the geo-politics of energy resources, rainfall patterns and the availability of water supplies and, of course, the impact on biodiversity, including polar bear.
How would she feel? One can only speculate. But as the Catlin team suffers on the ground, the satellites are watching the ice recover.
Since 2007, the global sea ice area anomaly has increased by more than 3,000,000 km2 and is now more than 600,000 km2 above the 1979-2000 mean. You could fit England, Spain, France and Mexico inside the recovered ice area.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Arctic sea ice extent is rapidly approaching an eight year high for the date:
.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Arctic ice extent is converging on the 1979-2000 mean:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
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OOPS,
I neglected to mention that this work was done by DeWitt Payne
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u43/gplracerx/SummerArcticIceExtent4-2-2009.jpg
Never assume what you’re trying to prove unless you’re trying to prove you’re an idiot.
I am just a simple red neck, so I probably just don’t understand. After all, I went to a public school.
But didn’t Darwin say that stupid people were supposed to die young before they had stupid children?
Signed by my evil twin,
Steamboat Jack
Gee, aside from the false premise underlying the expedition, why does Ann get the kitchen duty for warming up the batteries? Looks awful sexist to me, although it is warmer heating up batteries over her camp stoves than playing in the snow. When it comes to doing science, I guess even progressive scientists have to make special dispensations to biology when it comes to the division of labor. Maybe she should apply to be Harvard’s next female president?
I suspect that the science is mostly window dressing on this trip (especially as, according to the BBC and their fellow travellers, the AGW debate is over and the science is settled anyway.) This isn’t so much about obtaining data as it is about “raising awareness” in the run-up to Copenhagen in December. Many people following the Catlin Expedition via the BBC will tune out all the pernickety little details of gathering meaningful data, but this is beside the point as long as they are left with the vivid take-home message that the Arctic is melting as never before and that time is running out if the world does not sign up to Kyoto 2. If this is so, it joins a long string of similar events designed to keep the fickle public mind straying from the emerging truth of climate change – plastic polar bears floating down the Thames, Pugh and his kayak, Earth Hour, Robert Swan’s Antarctican expeditions, etc. Essentially this is little different to a group of well-heeled eco-tourists watching glaciers calve in the summer, then announcing to the world that they have watched climate change happening before their very eyes. In other words, this is not science but theatre.
The global warming folks already know that the public is no longer responding to their ‘scientific’ argument. They blame this on oil companies and skeptics in Congress, whom they say are corrupting the public. There has been extensive discussion of the failing effect of their science on the public, on the green blogs, by high-level environmentalists, and even by green journalists in the mainstream media. They know that their use of & appeal to science is not working the way they want it to.
If the photo of Ann at the top of this post is current, then she does not appear to be holding up too badly, physically. She is not gaunt, drawn, or overly ‘chiseled’. On the contrary, the major affect that I see is ‘boredom’ … which is a common condition for folks in their situation, and is a known (serious) hazard of expeditions. She may be bummed, but she does not look like she’s being physically broken down.
Really, only one thing matters: Does the public perceive credible indications at the end of this summer that, ‘Wow, it really is melting!’ If they don’t, then it’s like the incessant ‘science’-harangue from the Enviros – just water off the duck’s back.
If the Arctic icepack continues to demonstrate recovery this summer, then subsequent polls will show public acceptance of the global warming alarm-message continue its downward trend.
The Battery Drama
There is something inexplicably strange about “steaming” batteries for “hours” to get them up to temperature.
Did we never hear of Alaska, Ontario, Stockholm, or Moscow? Tens of millions of ordinary citizens maintain car-batteries through the sub-arctic winters.
Smart car-owners in the north buy a rugged little electric heating-mat which fits in the battery-tray. When they plug in the block-heater, it also powers the battery-warmer. (Poorer folks take the battery indoors for the night, etc.)
Slightly smarter car-owners find a small inexpensive styrofoam cooler into which their battery just fits. The heating-mat goes in the bottom, notches are whittled in the edge of the lid for the cables & wires, and the battery stays warm ‘n ready all the time. Va-room!
Catlin of course needs to adapt the car-battery solutions to their own equipment, needs, and resources, but the point is that the requirement to keep batteries warm is not news, and the means to achieve the goal is not rocket science.
Steaming batteries for “hours”?! Nooo …
Well, in the words of politicians, “Next time they will do – EVEN BETTER!
.
>>what if that person is convinced/coerced into staying?
A bit like Shackleton. His escape was a triumph of leadership, fortitude and endurance, but he only got himself into that position because he was short of funding and had to move that season, even though the ice conditions were not favourable.
There are many pressures to consider in an expedition, but at least finding evidence for a ‘religion’ was not something Shackleton had to worry about.
.
All of this waiting of the End is becoming quite tiresome. From 2004-2006 it was TCs. Not a day went by when some climate expert wrote about the unprecedented increase in tropical cyclones. Then, well…. nothing. No one writes about TCs anymore(or host Doomsday AGW docs on the Discovery Channel featuring end-of-the-world typhoons) . Funny how the Artic ice issue really didn’t hit stride until after the 2006 Hurricane Season. I suppose next will be sea levels. Once the Artic becomes a non issue we shall see thousands of oceanographers measuring sea levels, writing papers, and like the prophets of old, declare the end of the world is at hand (perhaps they will surf to raise AGW awareness, or spend a year on an atoll). Time to sell that Nantucket Condo.
Repent ye sinners! You week-end barbecuers, Escalade drivers, and meat eaters will certainly be responsible for something.
Happy Resurrection Day.
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>>why does Ann get the kitchen duty for warming up the batteries?
Because she still got it wrong, even then…
How much is all of that battery heating contributing to the melting of the ice?
(I’m thinking of not only the CO and CO2, but the soot, etc and so forth and so on.)
Negligible? Like the incandescent lamp I am using?
I don’t even understand the subject of this post.
We know it’s “for naught” in terms of any useful information.
We know it will be a success in terms of the PR campaign, no matter what happens, because no one can prove anything they say wrong.
Examples:
“The ice was so thin that it constantly shifted, and we had to cut the mission short. I’ve never seen ice like this before. Climate change is definetly having an impact.”
Everything in that statement is 100% true, and many more like will appear in the press when they get pulled from the ice, WHICH, incidentally, will happen on Earth Day.
JimB
Flanagan (02:54:07) :
“Projections based on actual models estimate an ice-free Arctic in the summer not before 2030-2040.”
I can’t help asking this question, but where are these actual models? Are they Earth replicas in other star systems or in parallel universes?
BTW, my understanding is that computer models have failed as they are no better than random walks. I then conclude that the estimate of an ice-free Arctic not before 2030-2040 is no better than a guess. Why do we rely on those over
…the actual results from the real “actual” model.
Steve,
This post got me thinking about area equivalents of sea ice (a very useful concept, by the way) and when I looked up some other values myself realized that you seem to have used the square mile values rather than square km values in your comparison to the 600,000 km2 increase: Wikipedia lists France, for example, as 632,760 km2 and Spain as 505,992 km2. Mexico alone is 1,964,375 km2.
I finally get it. For people who believe in glogal climate change this is serious science. And I thought serious science involved carefully designed experiments and thoughtful analysis of the results of the experiment.
Any chance the Catlin insurance company will fun a hike across death valley to prove global cooling.
Jonathan Drake (01:34:08) :
“How fast is the Arctic sea ice declining?”
Full pdf here:
http://www.trevoole.co.uk/Questioning_Climate/userfiles/How_Fast_is_Arctic_Sea_Ice_Declining.pdf
I read this last night. Very interesting analysis. It was new info to me on the variance between the AMSR-E data and the SSM/I datasets.
If anyone wants to better ground there knowledge on ice extent and area trends, this is required reading.
Hi Mike,
using your graph, an average sea ice extent below 6.5 million km^2 would mean a confirmation of the downards trend. So we’ll see…
Steven Goddard (05:49:02) :
“Winter flushing of the ice is affected by thickness. It is more difficult for the wind to blow 8 metre thick ice around than 3 metre thick ice. That is one reason for the large amount of multi-year ice loss during the previous winter.”
And yet it seems that this has been the primary mechanism for multi-year ice loss over the recent past, not melting in the arctic basin. Last night, Anthony promised a post on this which I think would be an excellent one. My guess is the average person thinks of the actic ice cap as solid ice on a stable ocean – the pond model. My research indicate it’s more like ice on a river – always moving, breaking up, never really stable.
What I’ve read indicates there is a huge annual outflow of ice through the Fram Strait, averaging 2.9 million km^2 +/- 600k. Yet the arctic basin refreezes to replace the lost ice, except with new ice. Hence the loss of multi-year ice in recent years. If that outflow has been higher in recent years, that’s the source of multi-year ice loss. I haven’t been able to find data on ice outflow on a periodic basis. Does anyone know if it’s being monitored?
Ted Clayton writes “If the Arctic icepack continues to demonstrate recovery this summer, then subsequent polls will show public acceptance of the global warming alarm-message continue its downward trend.”
I agree with you completely. But I think a more important effect will be on scientists. Not only is sea ice showing that AGW is just plain wrong, but there are many other scientific indicators as well. One of the many PR pluses that the warmaholics have is the fact that many learned scientific societies support AGW. Led, of course, by the Royal Society. As scientists continue to leave the warmaholics, and if the present trickle becomes a flood, we can expect several of these learned societies to change sides. I can always hope.
Flanagan (02:54:07) sez:”…2007 was a very special year with a very special wind pattern, everybody knows that. Projections based on actual models estimate an ice-free Artic in the summer not before 2030-2040.”
actual models? Yeah, right. And
rap music
chocolate substitute
downtown Carpinteria
military intelligence
virtuous trollop
delicious tofu…
I wonder what they need those large batteries for. After all – their scientific equipment has broken down long ago. And in order to keep in contact with their team in UK a satellite phone with some spare batteries would do nicely.
I guess they only need those large batteries to feed the propaganda machinery back home. And thats why they have those heavy sledges which keep them from getting forward at a reasonable pace. Poor planning!
a specially insulated piece of equipment to capture the steam from boiling water, in order to get the batteries to the correct temperature.
I thought this was supposed to be a high-tech expedition! If I had to warm up some batteries, I would put them in a bag and put that directly into the hot water, always assuming I didn’t have a direct (and dry) method of transferring the heat from the fuel. Alternatively, they could just be stored in a vacuum flask while charging, which would heat them up as part of the process…
I am finding it hard to erase my mental picture of the poor woman boiling up batteries in order to make the radio work long enough for their final Mayday message…
Peter (00:03:42) said: “…Also, surely the albedo of the ice depends on it’s [sic] extent and not on it’s [sic] thickness.”
Albedo is a physical property of materials and, as such, is independent of extent. Average albedo of the entire polar cap is related to ice extent, but is a complex parameter depending on ice percentage, wind velocities, solar zenith angle, ice history, ice temperature, and ice surface type, plus seawater solids.