Usually, and that means in the past year, when you look at the false color MDI image from SOHO, you can look at the corresponding magnetogram and see some sort of disturbance going on, even it it is not visible as a sunspot, sunspeck, or plage area.
Not today.
Left: SOHO MDI “visible” image Right: SOHO Magnetogram
Click for larger image
Wherefore art though, cycle 24?
In contrast, September 28th, 2001
Would a sunspok be only half-Vulcan eyezed? 8<)
OT… Nice mention of WUWT:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5028380/The-Global-Warming-Three-are-on-thin-ice.html
Adolfo Giurfa (18:01:47) :
Yeah, I was about to ask about that. It liiks like there is a simewhat larger, midlatitude, siuthern hemisphere spot as well. Both Cycle 23?
Ric, I think this image shows it rather well:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_171/1024/latest.html
Gerry: Pretty interesting, don’t you think? I’m a retired orbit specialist, who worked at JPL from 1965 to 1980. I find barycentric solar orbits most fascinating.
REPLY: We don’t think much of barycentrism here. Too little mass to make any difference. Dr. Svalgaard has debunked it extensively here – Anthony
I would be tempted to treat an orbit specialist who worked for 15 years at JPL with some respect. Dr. Svalgaard is one scientist. Gerry is apparently another — maybe each of them knows some things that the other doesn’t?
Gerry’s point is that no one (including Dr. Svalgaard) predicted sc23’s length the way Fairbridge did (with the possible exception of Landscheidt), let alone 20 years ahead of the fact.
Ric,
Or this one: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_284/1024/latest.html
I would like to hear from Dr. Willie Soon on the current state of the sun and with regards to it’s affect (or not) on the climate. :^) Dr. Soon, any possibility?
bill (16:57:27) :
I think it is evident that there is no VISIBLE TSI influence on temperature. However there are apparent peaks at 7.8 years approx and possibly at 2.3, 3.5, 13 and 19 years.
Am I wrong and if so why?
Bill
There’s a lot of variation in periodicities in temperature series, Bill. Especially on a regional level, it is going to depend a lot of the impact of how long term climate systems modulate the influence of TSI. Leif acknowledged a few days ago a chart I linked to showing a series of changes in the rate of change in temperatures that can plausibly be linked to TSI. Here it is again:
http://s5.tinypic.com/hreogj.jpg
This is the time domain representation. The frequency domain (MTM spectrum analysis) looks like this:
http://s5.tinypic.com/r1adtl.jpg
This for a 1895-2008 US temperature data set for the Southern Region of the US. There is a significant “decadal” periodicity here, with two peaks, one at 11.02 yr and another at 8.53 yr. The first may correspond to the solar cycle, and the second to the lunar nodal cycle.
These kinds of decadal and bidecadal signals are found in all kinds of climate time series.
Since you are using the CET series, you might want to take a look at Figure 1, Panel (b), in this:
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/PREPRINTS/MGEGEC.pdf
Whatever the sun is doing to influence terrestrial climate, it is “filtered” through complex interactions with oceanic and atmospheric systems like the NAO and PDO which will create considerable variation in regional regimes. This will be especially the case for an island adjacent to a major ocean like Central England. I don’t think what happens in Central England is definitive for what happens everywhere else.
On a global basis, the decadal and bidecadal variation in rates of change in global temperature look like this:
http://s5.tinypic.com/2ily161.jpg
and the spectra like this:
http://s5.tinypic.com/2j12ype.jpg
The link to solar it is there. But look carefully at the vertical axis of the time charts. These are very small changes, well within the range of being attributable to the 0.1% variation in TSI over the course of a solar cycle.
What explains the long term trend since the mid 18th Century is something else. I’m not ruling out a role for solar, but I’ll concede (to Leif) that it isn’t the 11 year cycle in TSI.
Ooh dang it, one of my pixels burned out… Oh Wait a minute, Thats a Sunfleck.
But seriously people I am scared of the sun being so quiet. If this was a human patient, someone would of pulled the plug LOOOONNNG ago. Im biting my nails in anticipation for activity.
John Adlington (18:34:52) :
“…I think we are up the proverbial without a whotzit..”
Brilliant, sir, practically Shakespearean. I’ve been needing an inspiration for my first tattoo, and you delivered.
Henry
Your images of sun are updating ones and a few specks are now appearing on the
Magnetogram….might have been better not to use an updating image!
If these new sun specks are typical of the last few they will not last very long.
I am beginning to think that there are more riddles underlying the dynamics of the sun than are being used in making the current predictions for cycle 24. I doubt that 8 solar cycles of data will provide sufficient data to project the start of the next solar cycle or the maximum magnitude of sunspot activity.
Even if someone may come close enough to proclaim success it may require another solar cycle to confirm the theory!
I suggest we call the mimimum the Chicken Little Minimum.
captdallas2 @14:56:29:
“Don’t focus too heavily on the sun or you may miss the real drivers of climate.”
Is that self-parody?
It appears like Cycle 23 is like Lazarus…. it keep coming back from the dead… LOL. We’re in uncharted territory since no one seems to understand WTF is going on with the sun, not even the so called experts.
I smell a Dalton Minimum coming and lets hope nothing worse than that otherwise the northern hemisphere will be in a heap of hurt.
Another a MAJOR paper published. Surprised when the first version came out year ago I think, some attacked is as quackery so now it has definitely been published in a major Physics Journal http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1161. This debunks the WHOLE concept of AGW and the physics behind it!
The cool PDO shift is likely more responsible for the current cooling trend than the quiet sun.
Sure. The normal variance of a normal minimum is c. 0.1C. Not a whole lot. But if it turns out to be a Grand Minimum, hoo brother! Whole ‘nother story.
Gerry wrote: Pretty interesting, don’t you think? I’m a retired orbit specialist, who worked at JPL from 1965 to 1980. I find barycentric solar orbits most fascinating.
REPLY: We don’t think much of barycentrism here. Too little mass to make any difference. Dr. Svalgaard has debunked it extensively here – Anthony
Anthony you have made it clear what you think (or don’t think) of the Landscheit research.
However, not everybody here shares the same disdain, though even some of us who think it a possibility, remain skeptical.
Understood about the Svaalgard Test. Point taken. I read everything that Leif says with great interest…and I love to watch him in action. Definitely a brilliant mind with no agenda.
But on the other hand….you have a retired, RETIRED orbit specialist here “Gerry” who was proffering some information and some studies.
I emphasize “retired” as he started working at JPL the year I was born.
And he was delivering some information as he saw it related to TOPIC….about the inordinately quiet sun.
And until Landscheit is proven 100% wrong without a shadow of a doubt (who knows maybe it will be 50 years from now…or maybe it will be validated), then in courtesy and respect of free inquiry…such comments to gentlemen such as this…are not warranted.
That being said…this is your blog….and its a GREAT one….but i have to say that it is not reasonable to shut down someone like this poster in such a way.
There are plenty of other “plants” on here who clog up your award-winning blog with pages of sophistry and it is on them that the shut-down efforts should be aimed.
Thanks for your efforts. Just making a point.
Back to topic: Question: At what point in time or date does this minimum become officially “grand”?
REPLY: If I intended to “shut him down”, I would have snipped the entire post and then posted that note. As it was I left it open for him to respond. – Anthony
Nice paragraph at the end of the link to Telegraph:
A London employment tribunal has ruled that Tim Nicholson, right, was wrongly dismissed as a property firm’s “head of sustainability” because of his fervent commitment to “climate change”. Mr Nicholson had fallen out with his colleagues over his attempts to reduce the company’s “carbon footprint”. The tribunal chairman David Neath found the company guilty of discriminating against Mr Nicholson under the 2006 Equality (Religion and Belief) Regulations, because his faith in global warming was a “philosophical belief”. Recalling how “eco-psychologists’’ at the University of the West of England are pressing for “climate denial” to be classified as a form of “mental disorder”, one doubts whether the same legal protection would be given to those who fail to share Mr Nicholson’s “philosophical belief”.
Anyone up for a sociological discussion on acceptance of science and rejecting accepted science? Tesla, are you out there?
“It was quiet in Dodge–too quiet.”
(Pandemonium brewing?)
Methow Ken,
i recently asked your very question to Dr. Tony Phillips over at Spaceweather.com. Dr. Phillips is very much in the “just move on, nothing unusual here” camp about SS 24. No answer yet as to when he and his colleagues at NASA might begin to consider the current situation a Dalton like event.
Slightly OT, but hopefully helpful…
For those using the Firefox browser, there is an ‘add-on’ called FoxLingo. It currently supports 45+ languages and can do webpage and text translations.
Back to the matter at hand…we are now coming to the point where the wheat and the chaff will be parted: those within the science community are the intellectually honest and those who aren’t. The current state of the sun is beyond denial; what it ultimately means has yet to be fully understood. The incurious will stand out for all to see.
Scientific inquiry or cherished tropes; the fork in the road is upon us.
Running and hiding
Take and dividing
You’ve got your secrets
I’ve only got a sleeping sun
Mike Bryant,
That report is very interesting. I wonder if my comment helped?
” Keith Minto (20:37:59) :
Of course reporting the Catlin ’survey’,responsible journalists and their editors would balance their article with “however, US Army Ice buoys using longer term data have reported………”.
Wouldn’t they “
That should be SC 24.