First this news: The Ap Index continues to fall. While the January 2009 data is not out yet, the December 2008 data is and is an Ap value of 2 according to SWPC. While this number may be lower than other sources (Leif will fill us in I’m sure), I’m plotting it for consistency since I’ve been following the SWPC data set for well over a year now.
I’ve pointed out several times the incident of the abrupt and sustained lowering of the Ap Index which occurred in October 2005. The sun has been running at a lower plateau of the Ap index after that event and has not recovered. It is an anomaly worth investigating.
From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little Ap magnetic activity there has been since. Here’s a graph from December 2008 showing the step in October 2005:
Additionally David Archibald writes with a new idea on how to use the Ap Index to predict the maximum amplitude. See below.
In late January, I contributed a post predicting that the Ap Index would have a minimum of 3 in late 2009. There is a good correlation between the aa Index at minimum and the amplitude of the following solar cycle. This also holds for the Ap Index:
The Ap prediction results in a prediction of maximum amplitude for Solar Cycle 24 of 25. This would be the lowest result since the late 17th century.
A. Syme, I would like to know exactly the same thing (about the sea levels during MeWP and LIA), but didn’t find any sources yet.
EW
Can I refer you to my posts 10 02 20 and 12 13 27 which partially answered your question.
tonyb
The best thing about this debate is we are living in the results. It looks like we will cross the 1978 to 2000 mean ice area for the Northern Hemisphere in the next 6 weeks for the first time since 2003.
If this cold snap rolls out like December its almost assured the Great Lakes will all freeze solid.
All timely for the March 8th gathering of skeptics in New York.
More spotless days and the odd spot from 23 being resurrected will only make it more interesting.
I think it is probably too early for the media in general to notice yet. I think the Comedy Network will pick up on the changing circumstances sooner … maybe a year. I give the mainstream media at least another year to catch up with the public on the demise of AGW. (My opinion is at … ( http://www.itsonlysteam.com/articles/Peer_Reviewed_Advocacy.html )
Then we can all wonder how Barycentric Tides evaded the notice of the general scientific community until recently while Paul Jose’s work
“Jose, Paul D. (1965) Sun’s Motion and Sunspots The
Astronomical Journal, Vol. 70, Number 3, April 1965;
P. 193-200 ( http://itsonlysteam.com/files/Paul_Jose_Jovian_Cycle.pdf )” was doing round with those interested in cycles (including Astrologers) and unacknowledged by later work like that of Hung
“Hung, Ching-Cheh (2007) Apparent Relations
Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the
Planets (NASA/TM—2007-214817) Glenn Research
Center, Cleveland, Ohio July 2007” ( http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/Citations.aspx?id=330 )
I like Geoff Sharps additions to the enquiry into this ‘theory’ at http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/ I hope for my retirements sake that his analysis suggesting this minimum will be between the Dalton and Maunder is more precise with his use of the angular momentum … theoretically a direct causal mechanism.
len (14:29:02) :
I like Geoff Sharps additions to the enquiry into this ‘theory’ at http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/ I hope for my retirements sake that his analysis suggesting this minimum will be between the Dalton and Maunder is more precise with his use of the angular momentum … theoretically a direct causal mechanism.
Thanks len, you should be right in your retirement. I am actually predicting a grand minimum with less downtime than the Dalton, the angular momentum has almost run out of steam as we exit a golden period of strength.
In reference to: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_640x480.png
Does anyone know why the variance has become smaller recently? Is it the instrumentation and/or the Sun? Thanks.
Alphajuno (21:07:33) :
Does anyone know why the variance [of TSI] has become smaller recently? Is it the instrumentation and/or the Sun?
It is the Sun. With fewer [almost no] active regions things just don’t vary so much.
DJ (17:07:00) : >>It is a mathematical fact that on Saturday the capital city of Melbourne broke its February temperature record by 3.2C (155 years of records) – the previous record was set just 26 years ago.<<
Try again.
Melbourne Jan 13, 1939 max 45.6C (from http://www.bom.gov.au = Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
Melbourne Feb 2, 2009 max 46.4C (same source)
Difference 0.8C over 70 years.
And if you really think that a single record is significant when we’re talking about global climate, then please note that the record low temperature in Maine USA of -48F set in the 1920s was broken this month by 2F, new record -50F.
But wait, there’s more – the decade with far and away the greatest number of all-time high temperatures recorded in the USA, by state and calendar month, was the 1930s.
It’s all fun, looking at records, but IMHO the important place to look for warming or cooling is in the oceans, not the surface or the atmosphere.
ops – typo – 46.4C on Feb 7 not Feb 2.
Mike Jonas (02:38:57) :
Well said…I also saw his error and was hoping someone like you would respond.
Off-topic a bit..
I noticed that the earth seems to get blasted from charged particles emanating from recurring coronal holes. If the particle stream from sunspots protect the earth from cosmic rays… then what effect does the stream from the holes have?
I vaguely remember reading an article (published back in the 90’s) where one researcher theorized that charged particles travel at a higher velocity than from coronal holes than from sunspot activity. The effect is a deeper penetration into the atmosphere and higher cloud formation (like cosmic rays). Anyone here have knowledge / insights into the effect of coronal holes on the earth’s climate?
I am a layman when it comes to this area, so please excuse me if I am butchering the explanation of this theory.
“I consider the IPCC outputs as pseudoscience. ”
And, as you elaborate, badly done, to boot. I cannot comprehend those versed in transparent lies and their minutiae.
“If this cold snap rolls out like December its almost assured the Great Lakes will all freeze solid.”
I dunno about this winter, but I expect to have an opportunity to
This graph, the 10.7 cm flux and last three specks(one not passing muster) being 23 all tell me we are cruising minimum right now.
DA recently forecast SS monthly value not to exceed 10 at the end of 2009. Looks like a good bet, just now. Watch 24 minimum walk, was July 2008, now Sept. 2008 is on the stand but the applause is lackluster.
Next Rmax 2015?
Thanks Leif. Is there any significance in your opinion that TSI as measured by SORCE is lower than the other (older) satellites?
http://www.acrim.com/
DJ (03:04:58) :
I don’t know why I’m doing this for DJ, but a few links about the Inuit that stand a good chance of revision in the next few decades, especially if the Chinese stop creating soot that settles in the Arctic. DJ is probably too busy being responsible in his research before posting.
In fact, let’s just blame this on Chinese soot, not on CO2. the main problem from my understanding and what I found was erosion on river and ocean coastline due to lack of ice & melting land. I didn’t see an update for this winter.
http://www.worldculturepictorial.com/blog/content/tipping-point-arctic-meltdown-inuit-culture-threatened-global-warming-181-alaskan-villages-f
http://www.inuitcircumpolar.com/index.php?ID=421&Lang=En
http://www.iccalaska.org/Media/Flyer_Summit.pdf
Interesting – Indigenous People’s Global Summit on Climate Change. April 20-24.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/eskimos-sue-exxon.php This site also has a link to the story “What to Do if Your Date Says, “Climate Change is Fake.””
Is there any estimate available about the effect of bushfires to the Australian record temperature values? I would suppose that large areas burning would heat up the air quite a bit.
I recently saw an interesting post on Accuweather.com which has a possible explanation for the warm up we have seen over the past couple weeks. There was a blast from a star 36,000 light years away which hit the atmosphere around the end of January. The blast was so strong that it ionized the atmosphere and possibly caused warmer tempratures. I am not sure what speed the ionizing portion of the blast was traveling but I suspect the different frequencies of enercy were traveling at slightly different velocities. The atmosphere warmed significantly the week before the blast hit, which makes me think the atmosphere was responding to a different portion of the energy spectrum than the one which caught NASA’s attention. If a star with an enormous erruption can cause a noticeable change in our atmosphere from a distance of 36,000 light years, it stands to reason that the star which is 8 light minutes away would might have an effect on our climate which varries more than the observed 1percent change in the sun’s output. In the early 2000’s I remember a giant solar flare which caused NASA to put most our our satalites in safe mode to protect them. In that year we were having a cold december, but within days of the flare I found myself at the park with the kids experiencing 70 degree weather during the first half of January. The average high in my area is 49 degrees for that time of year. I have come to believe that the interaction of the upper atmosphere with particles from the sun is a major player in our global temprature. We are on the verge of making some major scientific discoveries if we can quit wasting time worrying about a trace gas which is essential for life.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&blog=Abrams&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Abrams/archives/2009/02/a_mysterious_magnetar.asp
If you look at any of the temperature anomaly charts you will notice, that there was a rise from December 2004 to January 2005, but it was not out of the ordinary. For example, just a year earlier the rise in anomaly from Januar to February 2004 was of roughly equal size, both of the by far not the largest month to month wiggles. Effect? Possible. Large effect? No.
Here’s a NASA press release about the January 2009 SGR
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/swift/bursts/gammaray_fireworks.html
and here as a starting point the wikipedia entry on the SGR flare in 2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGR_1806-20
CDJ: it’s temperature, not temprature.
And to some others: it’s anomaly, not anomoly.
Jari (05:53:01) :
Is there any estimate available about the effect of bushfires to the Australian record temperature values? I would suppose that large areas burning would heat up the air quite a bit.
“Melbourne did in fact have a hotter day before, four years before the Bureau of Meteorology started officially recording temperatures.
As the Argus newspaper reported at the time, the temperature on February 6, 1851, soared to 47.2C, helping to superheat the fires that then roared across 10 times more land than was burned last week.
Victoria’s highest recorded temperature is still the 50.7C measured in Mildura 103 years ago.
South Australia’s is also 50.7C, recorded 49 years ago.
NSW’s is the 50C of 70 years ago.
Queensland’s is the 49.5C of 37 years ago. “