It’s Hot But Don’t Blame Global Warming
By Cynthia Barnett – 2/1/2009
FloridaTrend Magazine
Morton D. Winsberg fell in love with Florida more than 50
years ago, but the Illinois-born geographer never quite got used to the dog days
of summer.
In recent years, the Florida State University professor emeritus and author
of a book called “Florida Weather” began wondering: Is global climate change
making Florida’s hot season longer and hotter? With help from geography students
and researchers at FSU’s Population Center and Florida Climate Center, Winsberg
and co-author Melanie Simmons gathered and analyzed temperature data from 57
Florida weather stations going back six decades.
Their research showed that the hot season in Florida has gotten a lot hotter
— and longer — in some places, but not at all in others. The change, however, is
unrelated to global warming, the increase in the average temperature of the
earth’s atmosphere. Rather, they found, it’s a function of the lesser-known
phenomenon of local warming. The analysis “shows that weather can be very
local,” says Winsberg, “and also that weather can be a function of population
growth.”
Winsberg found the most notable climate changes along the state’s
southeastern coast, where development and wetlands drainage have been heaviest.
In most areas he analyzed, the heat is getting more intense. Of the 57 weather
stations, 49 saw an increase in the number of days with an average temperature
of 80 degrees. When it came to the length of the hot season, the biggest
increase was in Hialeah, with a 72-day increase, followed by Miami, with a
45-day increase.
Neither the intensity of the heat nor the increasing number of hotter days
was related to water temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf, a fact that
surprised Winsberg. The heat trends also weren’t consistent across the state. In
fact, some areas, notably in the northeast part of the state, saw a shorter hot
season and a decrease in the number of dog days.
That evidence leads Winsberg and FSU meteorologists to blame the hot spots on
local land-use changes that accentuate the urban “heat-island” effect — the
pools of heat that large, dense concentrations of people produce in their local
climates. Cutting down trees, draining wetlands and pouring concrete all make a
place hotter, as anyone who’s walked across an asphalt parking lot on a summer
day knows, Winsberg says.
|
Geographer Morton Winsberg’s research suggests that local land-use changes — urban development and draining wetlands — may be contributing more to local climate change than global warming. [Photo: Jeffrey Camp] Contagious Energy Geographer Morton Winsberg retired a decade ago, but you wouldn’t know if from his teaching load, his research output and the hours he spends on the Florida State University campus. At 78, Winsberg no longer worries about getting his work published or being recognized by fellow academics. He had even been teaching Latin American and Florida geography at FSU for free until last year, when FSU put him back on the payroll. Winsberg is happy taking advantage of office space, grad students and GIS equipment so he can keep digging into weather and other interests. “I don’t play golf,” he explains. “I prefer to play with aggregate data.” Winsberg spent his career traveling the globe and writing about 100 research papers on topics as diverse as Jewish agricultural colonization in Argentina and Irish suburbanization in Boston, Chicago and New York. His favorite trip: Backpacking across northern Spain, following a medieval pilgrimage route to Santiago de Compostela, reputed to be the burial site of St. James. Winsberg says he dreaded becoming the sort of retiree “who kept up with the world via “I wanted to keep feeling useful and to be useful,” Winsberg says. He passed up royalties from his “Florida Weather” book so it would be more affordable ($16.95 at upf.com). In addition to his work on weather, his post-retirement writings include the book “Atlas of Race, Ancestry, and Religion in 21st-Century Florida.” He is currently researching the locations of megachurches, particularly those within metropolitan areas. Colleagues say he’s the only “emeritus” professor they know who spends as much time on campus as he did before retiring. “I’ve never talked to Mort about weather when he was not extremely excited about it,” says Melissa Griffin, Florida’s assistant climatologist. “He has this energy that flows out of him, seeps out of him, and other people catch it.” |
On a regional level, state climatologist David Zierden says, historical
records show that southeastern Alabama, Georgia and north and central Florida
have not experienced steady warming, but rather relatively warm periods, such as
the 1930s through the 1950s, followed by relatively cool periods, such as the
1960s through the 1980s.
|
State climatologist David Zierden says Winsberg’s data bolsters his belief, backed up by other Florida studies, that climate changes driven by land use ‘are as important or more important in Florida than what has happened here to date due to greenhouse gases.’ [Photo: Ray Stanyard] |
Heavily drained or developed areas bucked those trends, however. The most
dramatic example in Winsberg’s study is the difference between Belle Glade, in a
part of the Everglades drained for sugar production, and undeveloped Everglades
City. Since 1950, Belle Glade has seen a 32% increase in its number of dog days,
while Everglades City has seen a 3% decrease. The transformation of swampland
around Belle Glade to farmland appears to have caused a significant rise in
temperatures. “The draining of the Everglades and the upturning of all that
black soil has really changed the local climate in that area,” says Zierden.
The idea of local climate change may seem contrarian at a time when
scientists and policy-makers focus on global warming and its causes, primarily
the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
But Florida’s top global warming scientists, including Harold Wanless, chairman
of geological sciences at the University of Miami, agree that greenhouse gases
don’t seem to be impacting Florida’s temperatures. When it comes to global
warming, Wanless says, sea-level rise — caused by warming elsewhere,
particularly the Arctic — is the chief threat to Florida. Wanless predicts
Florida’s seas will rise three to five feet by century’s end.
As state and national policy-makers work to mitigate damages from the rising
seas, Winsberg says he hopes local officials and Floridians will use his data to
think more wisely about land-use changes and wetlands drainage.
“People just dread when the hot season begins, and they are so relieved when
it’s over,” says Winsberg. “We don’t want to extend the suffering.”
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The transformation of swampland
around Belle Glade to farmland appears to have caused a significant rise in
temperatures. “The draining of the Everglades and the upturning of all that
black soil has really changed the local climate in that area,” says Zierden.
Reduced humidity will give you hotter days locally. Which is why deserts are much hotter in the daytime than humid tropical areas. This effect will be especially pronounced when a city is built over a swamp, like Miami.
Albedo changes are probably secondary. Although it sounds like an experiment for an enterprising highschooler.
(self snip snarky comment about high schooler needs to do it, because climate scientists aren’t interested in investigating the real causes of surface temperature changes)
Reply: Many thanks ~ charles the moderator
it appears to be quite hard to find any data, that supports AGW.
Should be in all text books. Perfect illustration of the urban heat island effect, smack bang centered on Miami …
If, like the author says that weather can be a function of population
growth then the weather changes are certainly a global phenomenon. If these changes becomes problematic (long dry hot-periods, heavy rain,…) then certainly we have a global problem. Actually this article says that there are maybe other courses of the weather / climate problem than the Goracle Religory tells us, but finally the problem remains a global one namely overpopulation in this approach.
So Roger Pielke Sr. was right after all. Who would’ve thought…
Question for everyone.
I saw a tv program on the BBC that was pro AGW Global Warming. On there, the presenter showed evidence from ice cores that in the past there has been sudden movements in global temperatures. He said that the temperature recorded in the ice cores showed a sudden 5 degrees C movement, and the change came within a year, perhaps it was even instantaneous. Also, that was it, the jump or decline in temperature happened, and there was no follow on movement in temperatures. (At least as far as I can remember).
This I thought, was perhaps the most interesting thing in the whole program. He offered no explanation for the cause, instead used it as a weapon to frighten the viewer, implying this would happen if we didnt cut our CO2 emissions.
The question is though, what theories are there out there that explain an event such as this? Assuming this evidence is true, I have only ever come across one theory that might explain it, and that is a bit far fetched.
From what I know of the AGW theory, temperatures will rise reasonably gradually in line with increasing levels of CO2. This theory cannot explain a sudden and discrete jump in temperature.
So, is there really evidence out there for sudden movements in temperature, and what are the competing theories to explain it?
> Willem de Rode (01:42:15) :
>If, like the author says that weather can be a function of population
growth then the weather changes are certainly a global phenomenon.
===============================
Why? It is easy to live in a populated area and travel to other populated areas and because most of our time is spent in highly populated areas to believe that the world is like that and population growth is reflected throughout the world globally. It is not. Look at google earth, spin the globe, stop at a random point and zoom in. Will you hit a populated area? Very unlikely. The vast majority of the earth is unspoilt empty wilderness. four fifths of it is water. Even on land we actually take up very little of the space available. If we are effecting the very local temperatures where civilisation is most concentrated, then the vast surface area of the planet is NOT effected by us.
Anthony,
OT – but I think the attached is a very clear analysis of what happened with the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming and its impact on recent weather patterns in the NH which may be of interest
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972
The majority of Florida’s thermometers are obviously in the pay of Big Oil ™…
At least it’s a “dry” heat!
So Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) is real – its just a local phenomena. Just as this humble Physics Graduate (hons) with a minor in meteorology and climatology thought all along since back when.
It’s a nice feeling to have your initial thoughts proved right yet again.
Perhaps I should have stated “shown to be correct yet again”.
Dave (02:10:10) :
I missed that program. But the jury appears to be out on the ice core evidence as to how the ice ages start and what triggers the following interglacial warmup. Seems to be a big anomaly in the CO2 level as temperature decreases and CO2 remains high. For thousands of years!!!! Doesn’t follow the GCMs at all. 🙂
Willem de Rode (01:42:15) :
If, like the author says that weather can be a function of population
growth then the weather changes are certainly a global phenomenon. If these changes becomes problematic (long dry hot-periods, heavy rain,…) then certainly we have a global problem. Actually this article says that there are maybe other courses of the weather / climate problem than the Goracle Religory tells us, but finally the problem remains a global one namely overpopulation in this approach.
Willem de Rode,
Would you please tell me how overpopulation ever could be a “Global Problem?”
Most of the planet is covered by Oceans, the North Pole, South Pole, the Antarctic, deserts like Gobi and Sahara, mountain area’s high planes and tundra’s like Siberia?
And even if the temperatures in California are up? What is the problem?
I hear you think…yes, NO PROBLEM.
This article is a good piece of work debunking the AGW scare.
Don’t replace one scare with another.
Whaddya know?? A major metropolitan area (Miami) shows significant warming trend.
No UHI there…..move along…
Ref. Dave above. Iam only a layman but I came across a reference to the follosing article in Science:
/ http://www.sciencexpress.org / 19 June 2008 / Page 1/ 10.1126/science.1157707 through reading about the research in a Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende.
A Danish Team from Niels Bohr Institutet at University of Copenhagen observed this rapid heating effect from analysing ice cores taken from ice drillings in Greenland.
Project leader Dorthe Dahl-Jensen stated in Berlingske Tidende that the ice age ended so quickly that temperatures went up by two to four degrees celcius in a few years etc.
Those interested should really try and access the Science article.
I’ve lived in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area for 30 years, and the temperature can change by 5-6 degrees depending on where you are, especially during dry season (“winter” elsewhere). Closer to the beach its usually warmer than it is on the other side of town close to the everglades. Local meteorologists have a dozen ways to say “Upper 70s along the coast, cooler inland” (which I just heard on my morning news a few seconds ago) whenever they forecast the day’s temperatures.
I don’t know why they separate Miami and Hialeah in the chart in the article, you only know you’ve crossed from one into the other when the street numbers change to a different scheme. They’re adjacent to one another, and they’re both part of the same ~100 mile long city that stretches along the coast from Homestead in the south to above West Palm Beach in the north.
Having grown up in Texas, I can testify that 100+ degrees of dry heat in Waco is easier to handle than 90 degrees in 90% humidity down here, all these years and I still haven’t gotten used to it.
I will say that this past August was positively pleasant compared to what we’ve grown accustomed to in the past 10-15 years. So the global cooling of the past few years does have some effect down here. From my perspective I hope that continues.
Interesting article.
How long must we wait before “Independently Gav” claims that he came to this conclusion before Winsberg?
William de Rode—-what do you not get about “local warming”. Local warming does not equal global warming—–even if you have 10,000 locations on the Earth that are locally warming as a result of anthropogenic changes, you are not affecting anything other than the local climate.
Urban Heat Island has been proven by Anthony Watts in an article about his drive through Phoenix at night—–cool on the edge of town, hot in town, cool on the other edge of town—ALL AT NIGHT.
Buddy, do some reading, and get back to us.
The climate models build in large negative temperature impacts from “other forcings” to balance off the large increases they have built in for greenhouse gases. They wouldn’t be able to come close in a hindcast or a forecast without these offsets.
Land Use is no different. It has a negative temperature impact in the models.
Deforestation and agricultural land negative impacts outweigh the positives from urban heat island and urban development. This study would contradict that, at least for Florida.
Here is GISS’ Model E Land Use impact versus temperatures.
http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/7097/modelelandusexr5.png
A visit to Marjorie Kinnen Rawlings (sp?) house in Cross Creek (north of Ocala) describes her orange groves in the early 1900s. Now oranges aren’t grown much north of Orlando after the 1977, ’83 and ’89 freezes. Driving up the Florida Turnpike one can see pine trees where there used to be vast orange groves.
The world may be warmer, but north Florida isn’t.
I notice that this article finds that rural areas near major cities can also see major increases in temperature.
This study should put the kabosh to Hansen’s method of using “rural” stations to justify his urban adjustments. But it won’t.
Florida just bought up all the sugar cane land recently and plans on restoring all that property. It will be interesting to see what happens to the local climate over the next 50 years.
“People just dread when the hot season begins, and they are so relieved when it’s over,” says Winsberg. “We don’t want to extend the suffering.”
Most of those that I know who think like this are transplanted Northerners to whom I ask, “then why do you live here? “. Along the central/south Gulf Coast we rarely get above 94F. It’s hotter than that in lot’s of other places around the country. I believe the main reason those folks get so uncomfortable is not the heat or humidity but the intensity of direct sun on their skin due to the sun being almost overhead. Step into the shade and that goes away. Also, you will find that these transplants usually have their indoor A/C set at about 78F. Go from 78F to 94F for a few seconds before you get into your air conditioned car and yes, you feel like you walked through an oven. Give your body time to use adjust and once again it’s no problem.
Notice the central west coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Lot’s of development there over the last 20 years. Central hot spot is right about where Disney World and other resorts are. So let’s hear from the UHI deniers!
Good to see an article that land-use does indeed cause warming – not just isolated to urban environments. I’m inclined to believe direct human impacts on the environment have an immediate effect locally, but still doesn’t explain why other areas (not affected at all by human land use) also see warming.