RSS Data Source is here
The RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for January 2009 was published yesterday and has risen significantly. This is the new data version, 3.2 which changed in October. The change from December with a value of 0.174°C to January’s 0.322°C is a (∆T) of +0.148°C.
RSS
2008 1 -0.070
2008 2 -0.002
2008 3 0.079
2008 4 0.080
2008 5 -0.083
2008 6 0.035
2008 7 0.147
2008 8 0.146
2008 9 0.241 (V3.1)
2008 10 0.181 (V3.2)
2008 11 0.216 (V3.2)
2008 12 0.174 (V3.2)
2009 01 0.322 (V3.2)
HORSE FEATHERS!!
Where do they come up with that stuff, when the world is in the grip of record cold?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25001064-954,00.html
http://www.bradenton.com/news/local/story/1202357.html
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/winter/2009-02-02-ice-storm-recovery_N.htm
I was studying with a friend in college, and in several places she had drawn a pair of pliers. I asked why she did that, and she said it was to indicate that the only place the prof could have come up with that was to pull it out of his @**. We need to draw a whole lot of pliers on whatever we get from the warmers.
Natural variations, not AGW!
http://in.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idINTRE5133EX20090204
Richard:
The GCMs struggle to even show something which resembles the Artic Oscillation (or any of the other modes of internal variability by that matter) never mind something like a SSW…
I have a gripe here also about the tireless arguement of what is “weather” and what is “climate”
Tell me – what physics in the atmosphere/ocean/soils tell them to act in one way at short time and spatial scales and in another way at long time and spatial scales? The idea is ridiculous. Its like classifying a falling apple as a “projectile” and an apple on the ground as “fruit” – its a freakin apple!!
The climate system (solar, atmosphere, ocean and soils) is complex, is highly non-linear (chaotic) and does what it does. We are only scrapping the surface when attempting to understand and characterise this complex system.
From a GCM point of view, the idea that you can simulate such a system by a set of physical thermodynamics equations and linear parameterizations and use a grid which starts at a resolution of several 10’s of km is just fooling ourselves.
In such a system, a tornado tomorrow (weather) has as much importance, and as little importance as the movement of the ocean current over decades (climate).
Re California’s water shortage and Dr. Chu….
Perhaps he has been reading WUWT? I posted comments on this in the past couple of days…
Interesting, though, that once again the pols’ solution is to spend money on reducing CO2, when what we need is desalination plants. Or a major water pipeline from the Mississippi over the continental divide into the Colorado river.
HELLO! You do not create fresh water by reducing CO2! Is anybody in
government listening?
Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California
For ocean temperatures:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html
and for anomalies and animations
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/
Bill Marsh (09:39:35) : Which DC were you living in? I live near DC right outside the beltway in VA and Jan was about as cold overall as I’ve ever seen it since the 70s. True, Superbowl Sunday was warm (and was actually in February, but why quibble), but the entire month before was on average about 6-8 F BELOW the long term average of 44 for my zip code. In no way could I describe overall temps in January as ‘mild’, we had multiple days where the high temp did not breach 30 (14 degrees below ‘normal’).
I live in the one that had mostly rain instead of snow in January.The only significant snow (meaning I had to shovel) was last week and that turned to rain then freezing rain that night and pretty much melted away the next day.
Yes there were a couple of nights in the 10’s but I only zipped up my jacket once. Christmas Day was around 50F (I even made a comment about it at CA). OK, Christmas was one week before January, but as you said, why quibble? My heating bills are nothing compared to this time last year despite a 72% price increase. Go figure.
Guess I live on the hot side of down. I’ve heard stories that Virginians are colder than Marylanders (despite the world famous Maryland Crabs). Perhaps WX is the basis? 🙂
Just an possible idea and or explanation for the record Jan 09 SSW?
We know that the atmosphere has compacted due to lack of solar ion radation.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/16/earths-ionosphere-drops-to-a-new-low/
We also know from laws of thermodynamics in Charles Law that as temp of a gas drops, then either the volume or pressure decrease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles%27s_law
Is it possible that combining the solar minimum and extreme cold temps in the far northern lattitudes this winter could have altered the atmospheric layers enough to cause a SSW.
We know that some of the upper layers in the atmosphere are normally very hot.
Could the compaction of the atmosphere from the lack of solar radiation, comibined with the extreme cold temps, which according to Charles’ law should compact the atmosphere even more, have actually dropped some of these hot layers to a significantly lower level, and thus affected the temps at specific altitudes as measured by the satellites? Is it possible that the layers of the atmosphere are lower than normal, and thus distorting what the temps normally are at that altitude?
realitycheck,
Ed Berry has a site that is quite interesting If you are not familiar with it this will get you there. He keeps close track of El-Nino/La-Nina conditions and their affect on weather. Including the recent SSW. http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
Our ionosphere has shrinked considerably in the past years because of reduced solar activity. I bet we can expect more of those impressive SSW in the future. We have to wonder if includingthe upper atmosphere temperature in the calculation of the global temperature is a good thing to do. That sudden heat will irradiate back in space quite fast actually.
I’ve metioned this before but I might as well re-state the case. We had better hope there isn’t a pattern here because the one that matches most closely to what we see now, is end of 1997 into beginning ’98……….Yikes!!!!
So, this in not necessarily a short term spike at all – it could go all the way to1998 and beyond. The trend after all is even steeper than that of early ’98.
Ben
I thnk the next global temperature anomaly (GTA) for February will be about 0.5 to 0.1.
WORLD TOO HOT, MUST COOL DOWN
“Turtlefossil Scientists working in freezing arctic Canada have made a surprise discovery — the fossil of a tropical, freshwater, Asian turtle.”
http://blogs.usatoday.com/sciencefair/2009/02/tropical-turtle.html
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1244125
http://www.livescience.com/environment/071030-tree-stumps.html
Bill Marsh (09:39:35) :
DAV,
Which DC were you living in? I live near DC right outside the beltway in VA and Jan was about as cold overall as I’ve ever seen it since the 70s…
Same here in Howard/Carroll counties in Maryland. My utility bill says 3 degees colder than last year and I thought it would have been more. I run in the morning 3-4 day’s per week and I can tell you I don’t remember as many days below 20 degrees since I started back in 1990.
MikeEE
” Paddy (09:24:38) :
I hope everyone commenting will stop using weather and climate interchangeably. It only confuses the issues.”
Can we all agree on a definition of “Climate”? Please!
From E. Brit.:
“Condition of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time (from one month to many millions of years, but generally 30 years). Climate is the sum of atmospheric elements (and their variations): solar radiation, temperature, humidity, clouds and precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction). To the nonspecialist, climate means expected or habitual weather at a particular place and time of year. To the specialist, climate also denotes the degree of variability of weather, and it includes not only the atmosphere but also the hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and such extraterrestrial factors as the sun. ”
What about dirt (earth) temperature? Earth’s core temperature?
So, it it 30 yr of weather or not? Well, is it? Are you feeling lucky today?
Paddy (09:24:38) :
I hope everyone commenting will stop using weather and climate interchangeably. It only confuses the issues
Ok, what is the difference? Can the temperature of the whole planet fairly be described as weather? How much weather history do you need before you can call it climate? At what point do you distinguish the successive year-to-year changes in weather from changes in the climate?
I think these are all artificial and subjective boundaries.
MikeEE
Well my power bill was more this jan than last and i’ve not made any changes to my home.I’ve got a strong feeling there are some errors on this page .
If the oceans are not warming, Jan 09 is but an indicator the great heat sinks are releasing their heat into space and this is reflected on land as well as the atmosphere. Why would anyone think a general cooling requires a linear drop month after month?
What else can warm the oceans deep other than direct sunlight? If there is a reduction in solar radiation reaching the surface, what mechanism limits it?
Some have chosen to ignore and ridicule all research that conflicts with their stated views on the solar/climate connection which they say does not exist. They are not the only solar researchers on the planet. Piers Corbin seems to think the sun has a lot to do with weather and climate, and is willing to bet on it.
Most are humble enough to acknowledge ignorance on such complex matters as the sun, but for someone to state there is no connection between the sun and climate events on Earth is hubris. It is rarely a good idea to think one has all the answers.
Correlation is not causation, however causation must have correlation.
This little spike is climate, the previous dip was weather. I don’t know why you idiots can’t comprehend it.
Everybody knows that DC winters are usually famously cold. Compare to northern Maine, if you need a reference. Up until global warming, starting in 1980, ice fishing on the Patomic was a popular passtime.
Still no upward trend since the 1998 super El Nino, which by this data appears as an event that kicked mean temp up about .3C from a flatline trend from 1979 to 1998 .
January is the same temp as Hansen’s 1988, last year averages out around .2C lower than that, and his projection was for last year to be around .8C higher. It aint happening. Not even close. It ain’t happening at all.
I have a house in NH and the heating oil use is sky high.
As I have theorized before, the reduction in solar energy speeds up the transfer of heat from the Tropical oceans toward the Poles. I didn’t expect the global satellite temperatures to increase so much this month and was hoping for something closer to last month, but there is a lot of heat in the Tropical oceans. I am waiting for UAH data that I use in my graphs here, but I expect the temperatures to be increasing in the mid-latitudes and near the Poles. The Tropical oceans should be dropping in temperature. Inactive sun means faster ocean currents toward the Poles.
I expect that La Nina is a sign that heat transfer toward the Poles is occurring faster than solar input can heat the oceans in the Tropics, and El Nino is a sign that solar input is dominating over heat transfer toward the Poles. We should be moving into a series of cycles where La Nina is far more dominant than El Nino. The ocean Tropics should gradually loose heat, and the polar ice caps should expand. This should take some time because there is so much heat stored in the oceans, and the Tropics continue to receive solar energy albeit at a slightly reduced level.
I can’t see how this is incorrect. Enlighten me.
The SW USA was in fact quite warm in January. Might have been enough to make a small dent.
Mike:
Re: Ed Berry – yep I’m familiar with that one, follow it regularly (thanks for posting though)
A bit technical if you are a lay person, but he really speaks to the complexity of the system and how things like ENSO, MJO and Strato can combine to influence the…….complex system…….over intraseasonal (weekly to monthly) time periods.
As for ionosphere related to SSW (Dell Hunt and others) – that is an interesting idea. I could certainly see that being a supportive factor. Time to read up on ionosphere and atmospheric chemistry…
Dell Hunt, Jackson, Michigan (11:07:12) :
Makes more sense than anything that’s come out of the Goracle’s orifice.
ICE FISHING ON THE PATOMIC
Ahh, the memories. And who can forget fending off the polar bears who had no where else to go?
OT, re sea levels, related to AGW, warmer oceans expanding, glaciers and ice caps melting, and all that jazz.
As I remember both from personal experience and reading, when rivers flood there is a layer of silt or mud left on the low-lying lands. This silt helped to improve agriculture and slowly raised the height of the land. The slow rise of the sea was thereby mitigated, or cancelled out.
Could it be that modern man’s distaste for floods, and a penchant for river flood prevention via levees is at least partially responsible for the perils of sea level rise? Are we bringing this on ourselves?
Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California
Where we had cooling-degree days in January, highly unusual.