CO2, Temperatures, and Ice Ages

Guest post by Frank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnology.

(Note from Anthony – English is not Frank’s primary language, I have made some small adjustments for readability, however they may be a few  passages that need clarification. Frank will be happy to clarify in comments)

It is generally accepted that CO2 is lagging temperature in Antarctic graphs. To dig further into this subject therefore might seem a waste of time. But the reality is, that these graphs are still widely used as an argument for the global warming hypothesis. But can the CO2-hypothesis be supported in any way using the data of Antarctic ice cores?

At first glance, the CO2 lagging temperature would mean that it’s the temperature that controls CO2 and not vice versa.

Click for larger image Fig 1. Source: http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yrfig.htm

But this is the climate debate, so massive rescue missions have been launched to save the CO2-hypothesis. So explanation for the unfortunate CO2 data is as follows:

First a solar or orbital change induces some minor warming/cooling and then CO2 raises/drops. After this, it’s the CO2 that drives the temperature up/down. Hansen has argued that: The big differences in temperature between ice ages and warm periods is not possible to explain without a CO2 driver.

Very unlike solar theory and all other theories, when it comes to CO2-theory one has to PROVE that it is wrong. So let’s do some digging. The 4-5 major temperature peaks seen on Fig 1. have common properties: First a big rapid temperature increase, and then an almost just as big, but a less rapid temperature fall. To avoid too much noise in data, I summed up all these major temperature peaks into one graph:

lansner-image2

Fig 2. This graph of actual data from all major temperature peaks of the Antarctic vostokdata confirms the pattern we saw in fig 1, and now we have a very clear signal as random noise is reduced.

The well known Temperature-CO2 relation with temperature as a driver of CO2 is easily shown:

lansner-image3

Fig 3.

Below is a graph where I aim to illustrate CO2 as the driver of temperature:

lansner-image4

Fig 4. Except for the well known fact that temperature changes precede CO2 changes, the supposed CO2-driven raise of temperatures works ok before temperature reaches max peak. No, the real problems for the CO2-rescue hypothesis appears when temperature drops again. During almost the entire temperature fall, CO2 only drops slightly. In fact, CO2 stays in the area of maximum CO2 warming effect. So we have temperatures falling all the way down even though CO2 concentrations in these concentrations where supposed to be a very strong upwards driver of temperature.

I write “the area of maximum CO2 warming effect “…

The whole point with CO2 as the important main temperature driver was, that already at small levels of CO2 rise, this should efficiently force temperatures up, see for example around -6 thousand years before present. Already at 215-230 ppm, the CO2 should cause the warming. If no such CO2 effect already at 215-230 ppm, the CO2 cannot be considered the cause of these temperature rises.

So when CO2 concentration is in the area of 250-280 ppm, this should certainly be considered “the area of maximum CO2 warming effect”.

The problems can also be illustrated by comparing situations of equal CO2 concentrations:

lansner-image5

Fig 5.

So, for the exact same levels of CO2, it seems we have very different level and trend of temperatures:

lansner-image6

Fig 6.

How come a CO2 level of 253 ppm in the B-situation does not lead to rise in temperatures? Even from very low levels? When 253 ppm in the A situation manages to raise temperatures very fast even from a much higher level?

One thing is for sure:

“Other factors than CO2 easily overrules any forcing from CO2. Only this way can the B-situations with high CO2 lead to falling temperatures.”

This is essential, because, the whole idea of placing CO2 in a central role for driving temperatures was: “We cannot explain the big changes in temperature with anything else than CO2”.

But simple fact is: “No matter what rules temperature, CO2 is easily overruled by other effects, and this CO2-argument falls”. So we are left with graphs showing that CO2 follows temperatures, and no arguments that CO2 even so could be the main driver of temperatures.

– Another thing: When examining the graph fig 1, I have not found a single situation where a significant raise of CO2 is accompanied by significant temperature rise- WHEN NOT PRECEDED BY TEMPERATURE RISE. If the CO2 had any effect, I should certainly also work without a preceding temperature rise?!  (To check out the graph on fig 1. it is very helpful to magnify)

Does this prove that CO2 does not have any temperature effect at all?

No. For some reason the temperature falls are not as fast as the temperature rises. So although CO2 certainly does not dominate temperature trends then: Could it be that the higher CO2 concentrations actually is lowering the pace of the temperature falls?

This is of course rather hypothetical as many factors have not been considered.

lansner-image7

Fig 7.

Well, if CO2 should be reason to such “temperature-fall-slowing-effect”, how big could this effect be? The temperatures falls 1 K / 1000 years slower than they rise.

However, this CO2 explanation of slow falling temperature seems is not supported by the differences in cooling periods, see fig 8.

When CO2 does not cause these big temperature changes, then what is then the reason for the  big temperature changes seen in Vostok data? Or: “What is the mechanism behind ice ages???”

This is a question many alarmists asks, and if you can’t answer, then CO2 is the main temperature driver. End of discussion. There are obviously many factors not yet known, so I will just illustrate one hypothetical solution to the mechanism of ice ages among many:

First of all: When a few decades of low sunspot number is accompanied by Dalton minimum and 50 years of missing sunspots is accompanied by the Maunder minimum, what can for example thousands of years of missing sunspots accomplish? We don’t know.

What we saw in the Maunder minimum is NOT all that missing solar activity can achieve, even though some might think so. In a few decades of solar cooling, only the upper layers of the oceans will be affected. But if the cooling goes on for thousands of years, then the whole oceans will become colder and colder. It takes around 1000-1500 years to “mix” and cool the oceans. So for each 1000-1500 years the cooling will take place from a generally colder ocean. Therefore, what we saw in a few decades of maunder minimum is in no way representing the possible extend of ten thousands of years of solar low activity.

It seems that a longer warming period of the earth would result in a slower cooling period afterward due to accumulated heat in ocean and more:

lansner-image8

Fig 8.

Again, this fits very well with Vostok data: Longer periods of warmth seems to be accompanied by longer time needed for cooling of earth. The differences in cooling periods does not support that it is CO2 that slows cooling phases. The dive after 230.000 ybp peak shows, that cooling CAN be rapid, and the overall picture is that the cooling rates are governed by the accumulated heat in oceans and more.

Note: In this writing I have used Vostok data as valid data. I believe that Vostok data can be used for qualitative studies of CO2 rising and falling. However, the levels and variability of CO2 in the Vostok data I find to be faulty as explained here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/17/the-co2-temperature-link/


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John Galt
January 30, 2009 11:39 am

The Vostok data has been frequently misrepresented as “proof” that rising atmospheric CO2 causes global warming. But the inconvenient fact is the data shows first it gets warm, then CO2 goes up. Future CO2 levels can’t cause warming.
Then we’re told CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it must be contributing to the global warming. Fair enough (it’s possible), but doesn’t this mean CO2 is not causing the warming? Isn’t that the crux of the matter — stop man-made CO2 emissions in order to save the planet from some future run-away climate catastrophe? If CO2 is not causing the warming, then why do we need to control it?
The fallback position is always CO2 is a greenhouse gas, so it must be affecting climate somehow. This is a valid, but unproven, hypothesis. the climate just isn’t that simple, nor is CO2 a powerful greenhouse gas. You can’t discard the Vostok data without also discarding the entire AGW GHG hypothesis along with it.

Robert
January 30, 2009 11:43 am

Is the temperature in the recent past from the ice core or other readings? If it can be compared to the temperature peaks recorded in the other interglacials, then I conclude that one of two things is true:
1. The current interglacial is naturally cooler than prior interglacials and we will resume cooling soon (in geologic terms).
2. The current interglacial has not achieved its natural interglacial peak temperature and can be expected to warm another degree or so due to non-anthropogenic causes.
It appears that the Vostok core results are generally accepted. I would be more comfortable if samples from other areas confirmed the Vostok temperature/CO2 record.
In particular, is there another method to determine the maximum temperature achieved in the prior interglacials?
It has always bothered me that I do not see a discussion on when the current interglacial warming (natural) starts to be dominated by anthropogenic warming.

Bill D
January 30, 2009 11:44 am

Few of us are familiar enough wih the literature on this topic to really judge whether the assumptions hold and the analysis is new and valid. It this is a valid study, it should be submitted to a scientific journal for peer review.

deepslope
January 30, 2009 11:48 am

George E Smith:
I have been enjoying your well-reasoned, detailed and wise contributions. Suspect that behind that is more than book learning and lab practice – an apogee perspective?

January 30, 2009 11:49 am

Figure 2 looks like the key to me – has this been independently verified?

Gerry
January 30, 2009 11:50 am

Gore’s above-and-below two-chart Vostok data presentation and the fabricated hockey stick curve are the two main things that shocked me two years ago, when I noticed that Gore had (1) reversed cause and effect for the Vostok temperature and CO2 data and (2) plotted two different variables on one chart to make it look like temperatures have risen off-scale during the short period at the end of his chart where he was plotting tree ring data instead of surface temperature measurements. Remember that scene in his movie where he climbed a tall ladder to emphasize the panic-inducing exaggeration?
The Mann-Gore hokey hockey stick schtick has been thoroughly discredited for some time now and most climate scientists also acknowledge that satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature are much more accurate than Hansen’s buggered ground station temperature measurements, which Gore gleefully used.
However, Hansen and Gore’s Vostok cause and effect reversal, though commented on frequently, never seemed to me to capture the attention it deserves – until now. I was outraged three years ago, and even more so now that Hansen and Gore are still trying to deceive people on the simple cause and effect question. If Hansen and Gore had ever been willing to have an honest debate about this I would have given them the benefit of doubt instead of having to conclude that they were deliberately trying to deceive everybody.
I do note the very low temperature crossover of the temperature/CO2 curves. If that had ever been the basis of Hansen and Gore’s arguments I would have given them some credit for at least trying to explain it. Obviously they are not using that to support their argument because they know it doesn’t hold water. Whatever mechanism might explain this at six deg C below the interglacial temperatures of the last few thousand years can’t credibly be used to make a case for global warming predictions from anthropogenic CO2 now. Whenever I see the initials AGW, I feel that really must stand for Al Gore Warming, since there seems to be more hot air from him than there is from any anthropogenic CO2 global warming.

Tamara
January 30, 2009 11:59 am

Much has been said about the difference in the slope of CO2, i.e. a sharp rise versus a delayed fall. I am no expert, but we might intuitively expect this due to biological activity. CO2 rise would be caused by off-gassing as temperature increased, which is a fairly fast process. This increased CO2 also stimulates the biosphere, which stores CO2 through primary production. This stored CO2 would release more slowly through decomposition, and uptake of CO2 by plants would slow gradually due to the changing climate. I wonder if anyone can confirm this mechanism?

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 30, 2009 12:05 pm

I think I see a ‘tipping point’ but it goes in the colder direction…
Beautiful work. Just beautiful. The symmetry test in particular. If CO2 has an effect in a direction at a temperature, ought not it be symmetrical (same effect on opposite side of the peak)? Had not thought of that…
And the max effect ‘tipping point’ falsification! If we’ve been there before and got colder, much colder; there is no tipping point to the hot side (but sure likes some other driver making a ‘tipping point’ to the down side…)
Thank you. Danke. Gracias. Merce. Milli grazi…
Side note: I think it would add some interest to have some threads that were bilingual. I find it easier to figure out some of the finer points if a poster uses both their native language and English. Sometimes the flavor of the original language can add some insight, and the seasoning always makes the stew a bit better.

Julie L
January 30, 2009 12:06 pm

Bravo, Frank, on an astute analysis!
My first reaction upon seeing the first graph is to notice how infrequently the temperature on earth is this warm, and to realize that this recent warm period is why humanity has thrived.
My second reaction: fear and trembling for those who will be living when the temperature drops so precipitously in the future. I know that I won’t be around, but really. Brrrrr.

Daniel Mayes
January 30, 2009 12:09 pm

The idea that the changing CO2 capacity of oceans as they warm and cool explains much of the variability in atmospheric CO2 seen in the ice core data is straightforward enough. What processes have been proposed to account for these changes in atmospheric CO2 if CO2 is the cause, and not the consequence of the temperature variability?

coaldust
January 30, 2009 12:15 pm

Both the lag time from temperature change to CO2 change and the shape of the curves suggest that temperature is driving CO2.
As well understood and mentioned on this thread, CO2 drives temperature in a logarithmic relationship. However, when temperature drives CO2 (into/out of the oceans), the relationship is linear.
If CO2 is driving temperature, then on a graph of CO2 and temperature vs. time, the temperature and CO2 curves should be parallel when CO2 is graphed on a log scale and temperature on a linear scale.
If temperature is driving CO2, than on a graph of CO2 and temperature vs. time, the temperature and CO2 curves should be in parallel when CO2 is graphed on a linear scale and temperature on a linear scale.
Examine figure 2, which is a graph on linear scale of both CO2 and temperature. Since the curves are about parallel during the rise of CO2 and temperature, I must conclude that the temperature is driving the CO2 at that time.

gary gulrud
January 30, 2009 12:17 pm

“Some people believe that 90% of co2 has a life of around 50 years and the remaining 10% stays around for much longer. ”
As the cosmogenic production of 14C precedes its peak in life-forms by 60 years this has to be near the limit of residence time, the extreme outlier.
Spencer, here at WUWT a year ago, compared the 13C:12C variance of MLO seasonal signal with that of the long-term trend under F-Test. The graphs were identical. Keeling believed the seasonal signal biogenic and the trend anthropogenic.
Both surmises cannot be true, therefore the anthropogenic signal is not visible at all. Looking at the October minimum in the seasonal signal leads me to question its origin as well.
Who could scrub the effect of both fluences and also produce the seasonal signal? How about the temperature controlled partial-pressure of CO2 in water? 40 years ago that answer was orthodox Earth Science re: the Carbon Cycle.
Progress? Progress? Don’t talk about progress. My daughter is $55 trillion in debt before her first birthday.

Rob
January 30, 2009 12:28 pm

“Bill D (11:44:33) :
Few of us are familiar enough wih the literature on this topic to really judge whether the assumptions hold and the analysis is new and valid. It this is a valid study, it should be submitted to a scientific journal for peer review.”
If it’s to pass peer review, then it must be expanded to include the effects of ice sheet size and atmospheric methane concentration. In fact, if all three are considered, then the temperature vs time graph is explained very well.
(e.g., see Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.)

January 30, 2009 12:37 pm

Randall my experience tells me that the precision claimed is unrealistically good and the CO2 measurements are likely biased low. I hope to look into this further.
Then I hope to see a paper from you like this one on that subject. We need another look at what Jaworowski claimed. I too, and I guess Frank Lansner and many here, also suspect the CO2 record levels, but don’t have the means etc to investigate.

E.M.Smith
Editor
January 30, 2009 12:38 pm

Luis Dias (09:39:26) : Allegedly, CO2 lags temperature by 800 years, but in Fig.2 we see temperature peaking exactly the same time that CO2 peaks.
This just looks like ‘peak clipping’ to me. Look at Fig. 1 and notice that CO2 seems to always hit the same level then plunge. That kind of consistent peak argues for a mechanism that stops the rise and the ‘flat top’ on the curve in Fig. 2 also argues for ‘hitting the ceiling’. Mechanism? It would be highly speculative… but I would only point out that both plants and chemical processes are highly accelerated with temperature…
So when I look at #2 I see CO2 lagging temperature right up ’till it hits a ceiling and holds. Then as temperatures plunge, it starts following down.
I could easily see a warming planet being gradually covered with more and more plants that then suck the CO2 out of the air just in time for the interglacial to end and a plunge into an ice age to slowly cover the plants in ice.
Related to this is one of the ‘other’ GHG sources that “the CO2 did it” folks like to ignore on the downside. Methane Clathrate. (Methane ice on the ocean floor at great depth. It is only stable under pressure when cold.)
The theory I’ve heard is that as the ocean level drops in an ice age glacial, the methane clathrate on the ocean floor destabilizes at lowered pressures.
Methane floods into the air (slowly oxidizing to CO2) leading to the temperature spike up (melting glaciers and exposing long buried C in permafrost). The feedback to interglacial dominates. At the top, plants flourish (slowly taking CO2 out) and the detritus of life takes the (CH20)n down to the ocean floor to form methane clathrates again. Feedback now runs to glacials.
If this theory were operative, the ‘top’ would simply be as the CH4 sources are gone (ocean floor re-pressurized as water rises; permafrost melted / gone) and the CO2 => (CH20)n is in full force. The feedback to glacial can now dominate. The CO2 peak would look rather like that in Fig. 2.

gary gulrud
January 30, 2009 12:56 pm

“notice that CO2 seems to always hit the same level then plunge. That kind of consistent peak argues for a mechanism that stops the rise and the ‘flat top’ on the curve in Fig. 2 also argues for ‘hitting the ceiling’”
Very nice. Must be an EE.

January 30, 2009 12:56 pm

Frank,
What process did you use to create Fig 2?

ET
January 30, 2009 1:05 pm

Anybody have CO2 data for the GISP2 Ice core so we can see how the Northern Pole behaves (at least for the one cycle)?

Bill Illis
January 30, 2009 1:20 pm

This is a great analysis. I like it a lot.
Just to add one more little point to the issue.
The CO2 changes are also only capable of explaining a maximum of 2.0C of the temperature change while the Vostok record shows 10C of change (5C globally with the poles showing more temperature reduction in the ice ages).
180 ppm increase to 280 ppm in CO2 is not even one doubling.
So not only is there big discrepancies in the trends, CO2 can only explain a small part of the temperature changes in the ice ages even if the maximum global warming numbers are used.

Frank Lansner
January 30, 2009 1:23 pm

It was my goal with this writing, to give a useful tool in the debate. A tool I have been looking for myself. If some of you super fine debaters will use some of this, honestly I will be very happy.
Thankyou all for your feedback!!!!! Really.
Yes, what I show is truly banal, and some of it is not at all news. Just a tool to illustrate the obvious so simple that it hopefully will break some stonewalls down in the debates.
Thankyou Anthony for the courage to puplish my writings.
Buchanan (09:04:33) :
“ how was Graph 2 created? “
Thank you for interest! Graph 2 illustrates average values for the big tops from the Vostok data. This way for instance a typical AGW-argument about “cherry picking” can be avoided. For instance, if you ´have 4 values for a CO2 point from 4 tops, you take the average value. This gives a middle-curve including all cherries.
@Phils dad
The max values from fig 5. just illustrates the CO2 concentrations highest for the Vostokdata.
@Luis Dias (09:39:26) :
“Allegedly, CO2 lags temperature by 800 years, but in Fig.2 we see temperature peaking exactly the same time that CO2 peaks.”
It was in no way my intention to prove that CO2 lags temperature, because this is commonly accepted long ago by al parts in the debate. (The graphs are sligthly too rough to show it 100% clearly)
I wrote :” The dive after 230.000 ybp peak shows, that cooling CAN be rapid”
When the heating period has been only short, temperature dive seems faster. This could imply, that the slowing of cooling might be explained by accumulated heat in oceans and more – so it seems that cooling pace might be controlled by other things than CO2. Unless that it’s a coicidence that longer varmperiod leads to slower cooling phases…? Hardly 🙂

January 30, 2009 1:24 pm

Conclusions similar to Frank’s can be advanced from another angle. The rise of CO2 from ice age to interglacial is some 280-180 = 100 ppm. The rise of CO2 due to industrialisation is some 380-280 = 100 ppm, a similar increment. Yet the temperature rise at the end of an ice age is an order of magnitude higher than the 0.6 deg C at most due to industrialisation. This argument is complicated by the non-linear logarithmic relationship between CO2 and temperature, but the argument still seems qualitatively sound: CO2 is not a strong driver of global temperature.

January 30, 2009 1:25 pm

Antony,
Your graphs would be more effective with crossbars i.e. x level of CO2 causes temperatures to rise while a little later the same x of CO2 causes temperatures to fall.

Mick
January 30, 2009 1:30 pm

Lucy Skywalker (11:35:59) :
Why is the cooling period slower??? I’ve had thoughts about this. The cosmos (black holes etc) often operates by (1) explosive bang (2) period of settling-down. We heat saucepans fast and they cool slowly. It’s just natural, well, it feels like that. But WHAT OH WHAT are the specific factors that slow the cooling? CO2 is about like a fat lady going out into a blizzard wearing a nightie. You need far more robust mechanisms for a delay that takes thousands of years.
…can it be caused by the Earth’s moltan core…ie like putting a very low heat back under the saucepan?
ps I have no scientific background.

January 30, 2009 1:31 pm

Very nice Frank, I had not seen an analysis of the delta between CO2 and Temperature on the falling edge.
Regarding your final hypothesis: “It seems that a longer warming period of the earth would result in a slower cooling period afterward due to accumulated heat in ocean.
If this were true, wouldn’t the oceans tend to dampen the leading edge (rise) in temperature as well? I’m assuming that the ocean absorbs heat at the same rate that it gives it up, but perhaps this is not the case.
Thank you for the enlightening article.

Steven Horrobin
January 30, 2009 1:31 pm

Flanagan (09:55:04) :
“Not much to say about this “study”. Nobody ever said that CO2 was the only climatologic driver.
“Moreover: can you find a situation in the past where CO2 went up to 350 ppm and see what happens? This would be relevant”
Well, CO2 has averaged in the region of ten times this figure for the entire phanerozoic. It has only been as low as that at all very recently indeed. See:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png
For interesting commentary on the implications of this, and of major historical anomalies wherein it appears CO2 and climactic temperature are significantly disconnected, see:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPP23E..01F
So, Flanagan, simply put, apart from very recent history indeed, it is rather difficult to find a situation in the past where CO2 was BELOW 350ppm!