Yes more anecdotal evidence of a colder winter in the northern hemisphere. This is the second time in 5 years. A USATODAY story says it was “the first time ever” in 2004. Even the BBC reported it. There seems to be some confusion on the precendence between news organizations. In the 2004 stories, USATODAY says “first time ever” while BBC says “every 20 to 30 years”. I would tend to believe the Abu Dhabi local newspaper (over the BBC) who now says “second time in recorded history” in their story below. – Anthony
This is the frozen north … of the UAE
by Anna Zacharias of The National, in Abu Dhabi
Snow settles on the Jebel Jais mountain in Ras al Khaimah yesterday. Courtesy of Ras al Khaimah government
RAS AL KHAIMAH // Snow covered the Jebel Jais area for only the second time in recorded history yesterday.
So rare was the event that one lifelong resident said the local dialect had no word for it.
According to the RAK Government, temperatures on Jebel Jais dropped to -3°C on Friday night. On Saturday, the area had reached 1°C.
Major Saeed Rashid al Yamahi, a helicopter pilot and the manager of the Air Wing of RAK Police, said the snow covered an area of five kilometres and was 10cm deep.
“The sight up there this morning was totally unbelievable, with the snow-capped mountain and the entire area covered with fresh, dazzling white snow,” Major al Yamahi said.
“The snowfall started at 3pm Friday, and heavy snowing began at 8pm and continued till midnight, covering the entire area in a thick blanket of snow. Much of the snow was still there even when we flew back from the mountain this afternoon. It is still freezing cold up there and there are chances that it might snow again tonight.”
Aisha al Hebsy, a woman in her 50s who has lived in the mountains near Jebel Jais all her life, said snowfall in the area was so unheard of the local dialect does not even have a word for it. Hail is known as bared, which literally translates as cold. “Twenty years ago we had lots of hail,” said Ms al Hebsy. “Last night was like this. At four in the morning we came out and the ground was white.”
Jebel Jais was dusted in snow on Dec 28, 2004, the first snowfall in living memory for Ras al Khaimah residents.
“I had flown there in 2004 when it snowed, but this time it was much bigger and the snowing lasted longer as well,” said Major al Yamahi.
At the base of the mountains, residents also reported severe hail on Friday night. “We had hail. Last night was very cold, but there can only be snow on Jebel Jais because it’s the tallest,” said Fatima al Ali, 30, a resident of a village beneath the mountains.
In Ras al Khaimah City, 25km from Jebel Jais, sheet lightning and thunder shook houses.
Main roads from Qusaidat to Nakheel were still badly flooded on Saturday, while temperatures at the RAK International Airport fluctuated between 10 and 22°C.
M Varghese, an observer at the RAK Airport Meteorological Office, told of the storms that hit the emirate on Friday night.
“We had thunderstorms with rain for more than 12 hours and we had around 18mm rain,” Mr Varghese said. “The rain, along with the cold easterly winds and low-lying clouds, could have bought the temperatures further down on the mountains.”
Giorgio Alessio, a meteorologist at the Dubai meteorology office, said: “In thunderstorms, the rain comes down very rapidly from higher levels, and the rain that usually forms can reach the ground in some places as snow. In the next few days the weather regime is completely different and will return to normal for the season, with a maximum temperature of 23°C or 24°C.
“The night might cool down in the desert below 10°C. There is variability in the weather from year to year but it hasn’t shown a trend in getting colder or getting warmer.”
The RAK Government plans to transform the 1,740m Jebel Jais into the UAE’s first outdoor ski resort, using Australian technology that will allow tourists to ski in temperatures up to 35°C.
Abu Dhabi and Dubai also had heavy rain on Friday night.
Sorry about the double post
Gerard
My sister lives in Adelaide and I often joke with her that Australia is a barely habitable continent. A combination of cotton growing, farming, golf courses and population growth is often the problem. I do not know what sort of population Central Victoria can support, or if past practices such as licences for water extraction are making the problem worse. I seriously doubt whether Australias tiny population relative to its size can be increased by much without serious water related issues.
Peter Taylor
Yes, I am also very interested in the jet stream and the general notion that weather patterns are the forces that create the weather events that eventually become ‘climate’.
For example here in the west country (of Britain) we have predominantly warm wet westerly winds. If that should change to the east-as happened several weeks ago-the character changes abruptly to very cold and dry in the winter or hot and dry in the summer.
Combine that with the jet stream-we seem to be on the edge of its movements here in the UK-and we can have weeks of one or other sort of weather predominating-as happened for the last two summers when it was wet and miserable because the jet stream was stuck in the ‘wrong’ position.
I did a study of sorts of the MWP and the LIA and it seems (very anecdotally) that the first was driven by persistent westerly’s and the LIA by persistent easterlies. (I need a very big grant to examine this hypotheses further)
I do not know of any scientific study looking for correlation of weather/climate to jet streams or any dominant weather system. A thread would be interesting.
TonyB
link to picture of “Jebel Jais was dusted in snow”
http://shahrulpeshawar.wordpress.com/2009/01/26/heavy-snowfall-on-ras-al-khaimahs-jebel-jais-mountain-cluster/
TonyB (16:00:41) :
“Gerard
My sister lives in Adelaide and I often joke with her that Australia is a barely habitable continent. A combination of cotton growing, farming, golf courses and population growth is often the problem.”
Tony
Most of the golf courses here in Adelaide are irrigated with recycled water from the local sewage treatment plants, often in combination with groundwater from bores. Very very few courses are irrigated with potable water due to the cost and the governments. water restriction regimes. A number of courses we are involved with (I am a golf course architect) have implemented stormwater harvesting and Aquifer Storage & Recovery schemes (ASR) that treats urban stormwater through a series of wetlands before pumping it back down into the aquifer for later reuse. This water would otherwise flow out into the ocean and be lost. So golf in Australia is very water mindful and responsible.
Neil
Odin749, Gerard, DJ at al
From my perspective as a farmer the only sensible way to view the Australian climate is through the prism of its extreme variability; along with Sth Africa the most variable in the world so I have read. From my place in Nth Central Vic. the autumn break (when I get sufficient rain to go from dry brown to green) can vary from March to June. If it comes in June it is then getting too cold for much growth and I then have to wait until late August for things to happen. Rather than using average annual rainfall which tells you nothing of when the rain fell, I use growing season rainfall(GSR), April – Oct.
Over the last 50 years our average rainfall is 565mm and GSR is 369mm. The last 10 years 467 and 293 respectively and in 2008 average of 408mm and GSR of 166mm. You’ll notice that most of the rain in ’08 fell when it was of limited use. Anyway you look at it 2008 was a shocker and is only beaten by 1982 with a GSR of 132mm.
Off topic? Not really, it just shows that extremes are normal. The trend though is another matter.
Neil Crafter (17:12:20) :
So, are there country clubs where membership is open only to nudist vegans who have been sterilized?
Meanwhile 2008 was the eighth warmest year since records began in 1880 and 0.88 degree F above the 20th century average.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090116163206.htm
Tony writes:
I do not know of any scientific study looking for correlation of weather/climate to jet streams or any dominant weather system. A thread would be interesting.
H Lamb’s book on Climate history and modern man, of which a part is here looks at how the Jet Stream has changed over England Lamb’s book. Page 54, figure 18,shows how westerly winds have changed over time over England since 1340
Gotta love this one…
Can’t seem to work these html tags – Trying again…
Polar Bear on the River Thames in London
It’s official mother nature has gone 100% insane when it comes to what the weather in Virginia is suppose to be like…..I mean, geez, January is suppose to be the snowiest month where I am at….yet, we didn’t see a single flake in December, Were suppose to get around 4 inches in an avg. January but we’ve only had a dusting……NOOOOO, can’t have a big snow here but you can have it in places where it snows very little if any like Houston, Raleigh, Las Vegas, and apparently, the United Arab Emirates……..Something tells me that the man upstairs doesn’t have any lovin’ for the VA snow geese….
Despite that I have noticed over the past few years that the weather here has resembled arctic regions more and more actually….During late fall it’s been snowing more and more often…The air is warm enough to support moisture but cold enough to freeze it (Just like way up north). When winter comes we’ve been getting very little snow because it’s been to cold to support moisture (Just like way up north). Signs of a cooling earth? Only time will tell.
In my area, the normal range of precipitation is 20 to 40 inches annually. Anything below 30″ is considered below normal. A few years of 25 inches would be well within the normal range, but considered to be a drought.
Spending Christmas (both there’s and ours) in the Northern Ukraine. No clouds in the sky, just wonderful blue, but snowing, -32c and dry, dry, air that took your breath away.
John Galt and Gerard
I remember reading that irrigation in hot countries caused its own problem by compromising already scarce water supplies. Firstly there was considerable evaporation from systems that sprayed water on crops or golf courses from a height as that was lost to the system. Secondly the additional humidity had a noticeable effect on raising temperatures.
I suspect that Australia has about reached its optimum population bearing in mind its climate and standard of living. Do the Austrailans posting here agree?
TonyB
A Wod
Thanks for the great link-so my amateur research was right-a change in our prevailing winds have had a big impact on our climate.
Now all I need to do is get hold of a few million in grant to study it further…
tonyB
TonyB (15:53:40) said:
“I suspect that Australia has about reached its optimum population bearing in mind its climate and standard of living. Do the Austrailans posting here agree?”
Optimum is in the eye of the beholder I think TonyB.
I’ve heard some deep Greens say that our optimum is around 8.5M and then I’ve heard that the Australian farmer can grow enough food to feed between 45M and 60M people. The last few years would indicate that available water is probably the limiting factor. Given that Oz is amongst the most urbanised country on this good Earth and almost everyone wants to live on the coast and water has been an issue I would say that the present number is quite enough. Does the world need more of us?
Halycon
Optimum is probably a better word than sustainable as the latter indicates a level probably incompatible with modern lifestyles. The Uk is probably 10 million above our optimum figure and 30 million above the sustainable figure.
It never ceases to amaze me how urbanised Australia is, which as you rightly say is because most people want to live on the coast.
Whatever criteria you want to use it seems unlikely Australia can absorb too many more people without adversely affecting the environment and the Oz lifestyle.
TonyB
Mike Bryant (13:17:40) :
CO2 caused Global Warming, and CO2 is now causing Global Cooling.
CO2, the cause, AND the solution of all man’s problems!
Well there’s your answer! Can I get a grant to identify the differences between the ‘warming CO2’ and the ‘cooling CO2’? But identifying each and choosing only to emit the appropriate one at the appropriate time we can have a productive economy AND manage the climate!
I think $1,000,000 is all I would need to model this (lets see, $100k/yr, 10 years to retirement, yea, a million will do it…) I will publish the solution to all our problems with a decade!
/sarcoff>
Please read the article here:
http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/General/10278477.html
The snowfall was at an elevation of 5700 feet. Not unheard of to get snow at that elevation. It happens. It is a known fact that snow lines drop in elevation during winter. It’s not like it was snowing in the middle of the desert. This one event doesn’t prove anything. There’s no word for snow in the local lanuage because the word for hail can be used for snow as well. Barad – balls of snow. Not much of a stretch there. Sensationalism can be used on both sides of the argument.
HI… areas of the world are having warmer winters ( Artic ) and others areas are having colder winters.. (Australia ).. mother nature is fed up with the way mankind is treating it.
Thanks for the read, it was very interesting.
Hey EM,
I have learned much from your comments. I am looking forward to your exposition of the GISS computer programs. Now maybe if you quit sleeping at night you can get them out a little quicker. Only kidding. People like you are making the world a better place for science (and for people too!) I hope your findings become a post here, and also at ICECAP and CA.
Sorry it took me so long to respond. This site has outgrown my capacity to keep up with it! I’m not complaining though. The more people that realize what is really happening, the better.
Mike Bryant
Edward Morgan, Tony B and AWod regarding jetstream and its impacts (food especially):
I first became interested in the jetstream when seeking alternative drivers for the warming – to add to Svensmark’s ideas, as well as Tinsley on electric currents – all tied in to a solar maximum (Leif’s comments notwithstanding!) – and IPCC’s dismissal of the unusual state of the sun (referencing Muscheler who argued the sun was also hyperactive in 1790according to be-10 and c-14 proxies).
When ‘warming’ is examined, it boils down to storage of solar energy in the top 200m of the oceans – most of it coming in to the tropics and subtropics where there is little cloud or wind compared to higher latitudes. The heat doesn’t stay there as perusal of the sea surface temperature and depth average temperature data shows – it moves south and north toward the polar seas. The southward movement gets entrained in the circumpolar current – about 2000km of unimpeded cicrculation in a region of permament heat deficit – and over a few years, the heat is dissipated. Northward – however, it gets trapped in longer term stores – gyres, in areas that are subject to cloud banks and winds that vary its exposure and cooling – the 1980-2005 period is the only really unusual warm period (without it no AGW) – and it coincides with thinning cloud (ISCCP data, 4%), enough to provide all the GW heat from increased SW radiation to the sea surface. The question is – what determines the shift from warming to cooling? I think there is a link between the solar status and the jetstream – demonstrated by the southerly shift in 2007 and 2008 summers. This is Shindell’s work but maybe Hansen voted the funds elsewhere? The same would have happened in Dalton and Maunder Minimums but when longer, the cooling intensifies and it is primarily a northern hemisphere event with repercussions for the rest, but maybe not the Antarctic.
The track of the jetstream determines the rate of heat loss from the upper ocean store – follow the intelliweather maps for 2006 – an uploop dumps heat in Alaska, and by the end of that year – the store is exhausted, the PDO shifts, Alaska starts to cool (and the Beaufort Gyre will get rechargedfrom a cold Alaskan shelf – hence pushing out warm Atlantic water and reversing the ice-loss (2008). If I am right, 2009 will carry on that process.
Meanwhile, the cold north pacific feeds back to the standing wave structure of the jetstream (Charles Perry alerted me to this) – it shifts further south, and the Atlantic loop shifts longitudinally too – at times it goes up toward Massachusetts with a high pressure block in the middle, and comes down on Europe with Iceland’s air mass, rather than up from the Azores. (our recent cold spell). Another Arctic high is developing right now.
Last summer I asked Hadley who they had working on what shifted the jetstream. The answer was nobody. Too busy with their GCMs!
If anybody would like to engage in further discourse – my website at ethos-uk.com has some material I will be updating shortly. My main interest in all this is actually ecological – ecosystem stability for food, water, and biodiversity, but I have huge problems engaging in discourse since I criticised the whole modelling approach in an eco-journal! There really is an inquisition out there.
And Anthony – I really appreciate this site!
Peter Taylor
This sounds very interesting.
I will drop by your web site.
Certainly in the Uk we have been the wrong side of the jet stream the last two years. As you say, ‘solar storage’ is in the top layer of the oceans so as it warms will cause outgassing or asbsorption of co2. I believe co2 rises follow temperatures which in themselves are closely related to solar activity. Iit gets warmer via solar activity (mostly) and more co2 is outgassed and vice versa. Then on top of all this you have the various currents-air and water-transferring this heat.
Interestingly co2 seems to have its own distinct jet stream according to the Airs data.If you see this post before the thread drops off the edge could you let me know when you expect to get your web site update?
TonyB
Mike Bryant (17:39:47) :
Hey EM,
I have learned much from your comments.
Thank you. I try to ‘keep a tidy mind’ and part of that is keeping the cruft out from untidy and poorly thought through folks. That tendency was what first brought me to the skeptics side. The ‘others’ were just so untidy in their thinking. A side effect of this ‘tidy mind’ behaviour is that it becomes easy to explain things to other folks. Basically, leave out the broken bits and the rest fits together well, and clearly. I’m just glad I can be of help, to anyone.
I am looking forward to your exposition of the GISS computer programs. Now maybe if you quit sleeping at night you can get them out a little quicker. Only kidding.
I’m putting bits and pieces of it out on different threads as they become clear and as the thread provides an opportunity to ‘fit’. (And keeping a written running log, too.) BTW, my ‘sleep profile’ drops to about 4 hrs/night when I take on a STEPx of the GISStemp code. It’s a common thing with software folks. There is so much to hold in the brain at one time that taking a 4 hour break costs you about 2 hours (as what you just sucked up fades). So you tend to pull ‘all nighters’ to get to the “Ah Hah!” moment of full understanding. This is also why the software guys work until 4 a.m. but the hardware guys tend to come in at 7 a.m. and work 8 hours…
People like you are making the world a better place for science (and for people too!) I hope your findings become a post here, and also at ICECAP and CA.
Again, thanks. I’m looking for where to send the final analysis. I’m only about 1/3 to 1/2 done so it will be a while…
Sorry it took me so long to respond. This site has outgrown my capacity to keep up with it! I’m not complaining though.
No worries. I know what you mean. I got sucked into the Coral thread for more time than I care to admit. Only now doing a ‘look back’ to earlier threads… I may need to ‘take a sabbatical’ from posting to blow through the GISStemp code and be done with it…
Peter Taylor (05:44:37) :
If anybody would like to engage in further discourse – my website at ethos-uk.com has some material I will be updating shortly. My main interest in all this is actually ecological – ecosystem stability for food, water, and biodiversity, but I have huge problems engaging in discourse since I criticised the whole modelling approach in an eco-journal! There really is an inquisition out there.
Fascinating post! I’ll be visiting your site for a look see. Similar interest in the food / eco angle (though with a bit of a population dynamics economics twist – Econ includes Malthus and the whole issue of population growth, decline, etc. not just dollars…)
It is interesting how asking a question leads to ‘excommunication’ isn’t it? Never knew I was a republican nor rich oil company loving hack until then 😉 Ah well, that’s how a church spits into new denominations… maybe eventually we’ll have our own “protestant reformation” home.