Snow falls in the United Arab Emirates

Yes more anecdotal evidence of a colder winter in the northern hemisphere. This is the second time in 5 years. A USATODAY story says it was “the first time ever” in 2004. Even the BBC reported it.  There seems to be some confusion on the precendence between news organizations. In the 2004 stories, USATODAY says “first time ever” while BBC says “every 20 to 30 years”. I would tend to believe the Abu Dhabi local newspaper (over the BBC) who now says “second time in recorded history” in their story below. – Anthony

This is the frozen north … of the UAE

by Anna Zacharias of The National, in Abu Dhabi

Snow settles on the Jebel Jais mountain in Ras al Khaimah yesterday. Courtesy of Ras al Khaimah government

RAS AL KHAIMAH // Snow covered the Jebel Jais area for only the second time in recorded history yesterday.

So rare was the event that one lifelong resident said the local dialect had no word for it.

According to the RAK Government, temperatures on Jebel Jais dropped to -3°C on Friday night. On Saturday, the area had reached 1°C.

Major Saeed Rashid al Yamahi, a helicopter pilot and the manager of the Air Wing of RAK Police, said the snow covered an area of five kilometres and was 10cm deep.

“The sight up there this morning was totally unbelievable, with the snow-capped mountain and the entire area covered with fresh, dazzling white snow,” Major al Yamahi said.

“The snowfall started at 3pm Friday, and heavy snowing began at 8pm and continued till midnight, covering the entire area in a thick blanket of snow. Much of the snow was still there even when we flew back from the mountain this afternoon. It is still freezing cold up there and there are chances that it might snow again tonight.”

Aisha al Hebsy, a woman in her 50s who has lived in the mountains near Jebel Jais all her life, said snowfall in the area was so unheard of the local dialect does not even have a word for it. Hail is known as bared, which literally translates as cold. “Twenty years ago we had lots of hail,” said Ms al Hebsy. “Last night was like this. At four in the morning we came out and the ground was white.”

Jebel Jais was dusted in snow on Dec 28, 2004, the first snowfall in living memory for Ras al Khaimah residents.

“I had flown there in 2004 when it snowed, but this time it was much bigger and the snowing lasted longer as well,” said Major al Yamahi.

At the base of the mountains, residents also reported severe hail on Friday night. “We had hail. Last night was very cold, but there can only be snow on Jebel Jais because it’s the tallest,” said Fatima al Ali, 30, a resident of a village beneath the mountains.

In Ras al Khaimah City, 25km from Jebel Jais, sheet lightning and thunder shook houses.

Main roads from Qusaidat to Nakheel were still badly flooded on Saturday, while temperatures at the RAK International Airport fluctuated between 10 and 22°C.

M Varghese, an observer at the RAK Airport Meteorological Office, told of the storms that hit the emirate on Friday night.

“We had thunderstorms with rain for more than 12 hours and we had around 18mm rain,” Mr Varghese said. “The rain, along with the cold easterly winds and low-lying clouds, could have bought the temperatures further down on the mountains.”

Giorgio Alessio, a meteorologist at the Dubai meteorology office, said: “In thunderstorms, the rain comes down very rapidly from higher levels, and the rain that usually forms can reach the ground in some places as snow. In the next few days the weather regime is completely different and will return to normal for the season, with a maximum temperature of 23°C or 24°C.

“The night might cool down in the desert below 10°C. There is variability in the weather from year to year but it hasn’t shown a trend in getting colder or getting warmer.”

The RAK Government plans to transform the 1,740m Jebel Jais into the UAE’s first outdoor ski resort, using Australian technology that will allow tourists to ski in temperatures up to 35°C.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai also had heavy rain on Friday night.

Advertisements

100 thoughts on “Snow falls in the United Arab Emirates

  1. Fascinating event.
    Last winter parts of Saudi Arabia were covered by snow.
    On the SH there was snow and frost in Brazil.

    These are interesting times indeed but to undertake a winter sports holiday in the Amirates at 35 degree Celsius! I think I have to get used to the idea.

  2. Thie links from the BBC and USA today refer to the snowfall in 2004 – not the 2009 snowfall that the national refers to.

    REPLY: Thanks, I really mangled that intro paragraph, too many distractions from my young children while working at home. Worded properly to be clear now. – Anthony

  3. This is the kind of stuff that is happening in too many places around the world to be isolated incidents.
    Shades of the 1790’s prior to the Dalton.

  4. An astrologer friend of mine is more accurate in long range weather forecasting than most of the usual suspects. She sent me a link that you guys might find interesting : [URL deleted]

    REPLY: I’m sorry Norman, I just can’t go there. Astrology is a non-science subject of dubious merit. Though I will say that sometimes coin flips are more accurate than weather forecasts, especially for a few days out – Anthony

  5. Can Al Gore come and visit me soon?
    In my section of SE Australia the Jan. mean max. is 29.3 and the forecast for the next 6 days is 35,38,41,40,41,39.
    Please come Al, it’s too damn hot!

  6. I think there’s some translation problem going on…ski at 35 degrees C? That’s somewhere in the 90s F. or maybe this is technology I’m not familiar with.

  7. “Halcyon (18:46:04) :

    Can Al Gore come and visit me soon?
    In my section of SE Australia the Jan. mean max. is 29.3 and the forecast for the next 6 days is 35,38,41,40,41,39.
    Please come Al, it’s too damn hot!”

    SE Australia has so far had one of its coolest summers in recent memory. The mean temp for Dec ’08 was about 3 lower that it was in Dec ’07. Yes we are finally starting to warm up and get the heat waves that are part of every summer.

  8. It’s a shame the Australian press are cliaming “heat waves” etc etc. NSW has had a cool start to summer too, although we have had a couple of recent hot days.

  9. Odin749 (19:07:20)
    “SE Australia has so far had one of its coolest summers in recent memory. The mean temp for Dec ‘08 was about 3 lower that it was in Dec ‘07. Yes we are finally starting to warm up and get the heat waves that are part of every summer.”

    Yes, I am aware that this is just how the weather is and Dec. was most pleasant. In my area the Dec. ave. was 25.6C, the LT ave. 26.9C and the LT mean also 26.9C.
    Peace!

  10. I just talked to a cooperative observer for the national weather service. He’s reported temperatures daily for decades for his home station near a major airport (within 15 miles). What I found interesting is that the airport figures are always assumed to be the more accurate figures (even though he is using government supplied equipment) and while there is no difference 99 percent of the time every once in a while they differ by a degree or two. And when they do, his figures are sometimes reported as missing in the official records. When he calls in and asks what’s wrong they never answer. Occasionally, the airport record is changed in future reports and sometimes his reports are ignored and sometimes they are ignored on some reports and recorded on others. It’s all very haphazard. When I mentioned that deleting temperature reports you disagree with on an apparently random basis invalidates the record he agreed but there was nothing he could do about it.

  11. I was there playing golf. The snow occurred up in the mountains at about 1,500 feet. Down at sea level it was 55 F with an intense lightning storm. Our round was cut short due to this. Very rare here. Back in Dubai about 100 km away I tried to enjoy a few beers on my balcony overlooking the beach. It was so cold that I was forced to wear a ski jacket with full lining along with hat and gloves. Average daytime temperature this time of year is 72 F. Global Warming? Get real!

  12. No word for ‘snow’ in the local language indicates that snowfall has been an extremely rare event for many hundreds of years perhaps thousands.

  13. “First time ever” should probably always be understood to mean “first time ever” reported by the media outlet in question. If they never reported it before, they can’t be held responsible for documenation in other records.

  14. Doing a Google news search for “Jebel Jais”, I received five
    stories, all local to the snowy area.

    http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&tab=wn&ncl=1296423865

    The same search for “Anticartica warming” resulted in 792 articles, mostly American news sites.

    A search for “Eric Steig” resulted in 1044 returns, again mostly American sites.

    One story is being squelched, the other propogated. There is no money or influence to be gained by reporting record snow in the Middle East.

    It is not an accident that we wake up everyday to find that everywhere we turn, the media is reporting the same story with the same slant. It’s called public relations and advertising. While realists take college courses in science and logic, the alarmists take classes in politics and public relations.

  15. Here where I live (Gaia, Portugal) we had snow this January (last time had been some 20 years ago).

    I’ve just looked at cryosphere today and there’s some green stuff around Iceland. Is it going to join the main mass of Arctic sea ice?

  16. Ah, the AGW proponents will just put it down to the extra water vapour that the extra Anthropogenic CO2 has put into the atmosphere….. Deserts get cold add extra water vapour, and Viola!…. They’ll make a raft out of straws in their efforts to deny the obvious….

    Plus it’s all Climate Change now…. Colder equals warming in the inquisition of discovering the evils of CO2.

    …. Hmm enough with my pessimism…. I hope the kids made stacks of snowmen…. Get into practice for next year. ;-)

  17. At this rate, how long until the expression “until Hell freezes over” looses it meaning, I wonder? ;-)

  18. The abnormally cold weather in Southern Europe’s having an adverse effect on foodstuffs.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/agriculture/food/4333812/Harsh-winter-leads-to-courgette-crisis.html

    “A spokesman for ASDA said: “There has been an issue with supply because of the severe weather in Spain. It has been snowing in Spain and southern France and we have lost some of our supply. ”

    “Sainsbury’s and Tesco also admitted that they are having trouble getting hold of the vegetable because of the unseasonably cold weather in Europe.”

  19. In Central Victoria, Australia we are still in the grip of a drought that has now lasted for 8 years. It is the main reason The Age Newspaper (an influential Melbourne Daily) has been able to beat the climate change drum -they equate climate change with drought and politicians and the gullible public believe this If it would only return to average rainfall they would have less traction. This is longest run of below average rainfall since recoeds began in 1873. The yearly average for the past 8 years is 568mm and the longterm average is 752mm. Bring on La Nina so ‘cooler’ heads prevail

  20. I’m chatting with a friend in Dubai and he says the snow is well north of them – it’s not snowing in Dubai.

  21. A little unclear on the concept? Note the date line, it probably explains the last sentence.

    http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/General/10278477.html

    Snow stuns Ras Al Khaimah elders

    By Nasouh Nazzal, Staff Reporter
    Published: December 30, 2004, 00:00

    Elderly residents here said it is the first time they have seen snow.

    Abdullah Saeed Al Sharhan, 65, said it had never snowed in Ras Al Khaimah before, except for small balls of snow, known locally as barad. [RW note: Some other stories equate barad with hail. In both cases, they are probably refering to graupel (soft hail) which really isn’t hail, just heavily rimed crud that often falls in marginally freezing weather. In the recent event I think they had both real hail thanks to the thunderstorms, and real snow.]

    A group of elderly nationals chatting in a café also said they had never seen snow in the UAE.

    Abdullah Al Tabour, a UAE national historian, said 10 years ago light snowfall was reported in the mountainous areas of Ras Al Khaimah and the southern areas of Al Ain but it had lasted only a few moments.

    Mohammad Al Nagbi, the Chief of Khatt, said: “Snow in UAE indicates God’s ability.” He felt it could be related to the devastating earthquakes and tidal waves that hit South Asia.

  22. The AGW ideology, with its chameleon-like ability to change according to the situation is now referred to as: Global Climate Disruption.
    This 61-page presentation of John Holdren’s is actually from Nov., 2007, so the idea has been around for a while.
    Excerpt:
    •” “Global warming” is a misnomer because it implies something
    gradual, uniform, & benign, none of which is true;
    “global climatic disruption” is a more accurate description.
    • The disruption & its impacts are growing more rapidly than
    was expected; widespread harm is already occurring.
    • In this situation society has only 3 options: mitigation,
    adaptation, & suffering. We’re already doing some of each
    & will do more of all three; mix still up for grabs.
    • Minimizing suffering will require early & large deflections
    from the “business as usual” emissions path.
    • There’s no panacea; many things must be done. Most
    important is putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions.
    • The United States must switch from laggard to leader –
    and sooner rather than later – if the world is to act in time.”

    I guess they realized they needed to come up with a new paradigm, in order to contrast what they are propagandizing as happening today with ordinary climate change, since they realized people were finding out that the climate has indeed changed before.
    With “Global Climate Disruption” we have the mother of all ideologies, presented as “science” to the scientifically illiterate, which explains any and all unusual, or even not that uncommon but destructive weather events, and can not be dis-proven.
    I was listening to a program this morning on NPR called “Living on Earth”, which referred to the recent huge ice storm in New England, as well as damage to trees from pests such as the hemlock woolly adelgid, as examples of climate disruption.

  23. OT: Someone mentioned the BBC. A few BBC watch sites have been reporting how a BBC news report sliced and diced Obamas inaugural speech to ensure that it was on message for the BBCs (alleged) audience. Audio from two different paragraphs were edited to give the following. This was broadcast on the BBCs Newsnight bulletin, considered the high brow version of TV televised news.

    “”We will restore science to its rightful place, roll back the spectre of a warming planet. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.”

    Audio in italics spliced in. The audio extracts were taken from paras 16 and 22 and spliced to promote the BBC agenda.

    Paragraph 16

    ‘We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology?s wonders to raise health care?s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.’

    Paragraph 22

    ‘We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort ? even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.’

    The BBC correspondent involved has a blog where this is being discussed starting at comment 21.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/susanwatts/2009/01/restoring_science_to_its_right.html

    Fuller discussion and investigation taking place at http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=147.

    Mick.

  24. Hey, this is something for Al Gore’s next movie!:

    “Climate scientist says that If global warming continues in it’s present rate, In the future there will be no more snowfalls in UAE”

  25. I think we have to really get that there is something unusual but not unprecedented happening to the climate – its a repeating cycle over an irregular period, maybe a Dalton event, maybe Maunder type, and possibly different again from both of those because we are starting from the peak of a solar grand maximum – whatever, the fact that something similar has happened before doesn’t help us because WE are very different now – in our vulnerability to rapid change in regional weather patterns – such as wet summers in England, stormy winters in Spain and France (several deaths this last week with 100mph winds), severe cold winters in the mid-West USA. Nobody seems to be studying the jetstream – the key to these regional shifts. NASA’a early work on the LIA jetstream (Shindell) is more relevant than ever but they don’t seem to have followed it up.

    Food is going to be the major issue – world food stocks are low right now.

    I believe the situation is very serious. Vast amounts spent on wind turbines and new electric grid (reported Obama promises in the UK press) will have no real effect on mitigating the next fifty years. What money there is needs to be spent on resilience to shifting climate – robust to changes up or down.

    OK so the AGW bandwagon is objectionable on many grounds – not least the distortions of science, but it is all pervasive and we need to find a way for them to save face and switch from mitigation to adaptation before we precipitate mass suffering (e.g. from biofuel programmes that compromise food supplies).

  26. Gerard

    How by any stretch of the imagination is 56cm of rain per year in Central Victoria-around 22inches-considered a drought? The much derided British climate has this sort of rainfall in some parts of the east of the country.

    TonyB

  27. Many people dismiss these kinds of events as “merely weather.” Of course they are omitting the fact that climate is merely the long-term compilation of weather. Enough “weather” events over an extended period of time become the new climatological record.

    Sigh.

  28. janama (04:54:45) :
    I’m chatting with a friend in Dubai and he says the snow is well north of them – it’s not snowing in Dubai.

    Around 100km to the North East, so not that far really.

  29. I think now when the western media fret about global warming, the Arabians will probably double up with laughter.
    Anecdotes are one thing, but this happening twice just recently, and never having happened before beforehand in modern history means something is up!

    Send it to Drudge!

  30. I checked out Bruce Cobb’s reference to John Holdren’s “Global Climate Disruption: What Do We Know? What Should We Do?” He is a plasma physicist who apparently has done little physics, but he is both the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy (and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences) at Harvard University and President Obama’s newly appointed science adviser. Lubos Motl writes about him 12/19/08.

    I could find no science in “Global Climate Disruption”, just a propaganda piece for the hockey stick, et al, and for a socialist agenda: One of the primary goals is reducing the growth of GDP per person and reducing the energy ratio per GDP. These purposes, among others, will take some mighty central planning — and a heavy tax burden.

    April E. Coggins noticed Google’s “unfair” search, but the 2004 dateline helps to understand the lack of attention to snow in the UAE. However, there are questions about the willingness of the premier search engine to put forward science findings without prejudice since the company and founders are among the most influential supporters of this administration. Someone a few threads back suggested non-profit organizations to promote accurate science of “climate”. Is surfacestations.org one of those? Are there others that have significant outreach? Are there any that can reach into the schools? The current propaganda appears everywhere.

  31. A threefer at the American Thinker.
    ————————————————————
    The Age of Anti-Carbonism

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/01/the_age_of_anticarbonism.html

    Anti-carbonism rests on three foundational assumptions, all essentially in the realm of science: First, warming is the result of man-made CO2. Second, such warming is harmful, even catastrophic. Third, a program of policies and actions can prevent these harms.

    So far, despite more than $9 billion in research by the U.S. alone, none of these assumptions have been proven.

    Without first establishing the science it would seem to be impossible to formulate a rational policy. But the policy war against carbon (and here we mean hydrocarbon fuels, and concomitant CO2 emissions) is an end in itself for the anti-carbonists.

    No doubt anti-carbonism is the zeitgeist of the moment. Global warming has been mentioned prominently in every single Obama cabinet member’s acceptance speech. Congress is acting as if it is smart politics to force a transition to a low-carbon economy without delay. Venture capitalists and corporate heads are capitulating to the threats and being seduced by the blandishments of agencies and committees in Washington.
    ————————————————————-
    Climate: Change You Can’t Believe In

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/01/climate_change_you_cant_believ.html

    When in fact, even were consensus a foundation of science, there exists infinitely more that Al Gore, James Hansen, Gavin Schmidt, Joe Romm, Kevin Grandia et al are snake-oil salesmen than of any anthropogenic impact on climate. And recent claims of a vaguely worded on-line survey with a 30% response rate from unnamed “scientists” being touted by the alarmists as proof otherwise change nothing.

    Jackson — who testified at her confirmation hearing that “curbing global warming” would be an E.P.A. priority — has yet to disclose whether she’d move to regulate CO2 under the Clean Air Act, an extremely dangerous possibility nonetheless provided in 2007 by the wrongly decided Supreme Court decision of Massachusetts v. EPA. But as a committed GHG hypochondriac and avid supporter of cap-and-trade — serving “as Vice President of the Executive Board of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative,” which has already launched the nation’s first carbon trading system, her trump card — should legislation fail — is a no-brainer. And such radical regulation would empower unelected bureaucrats to impose massive behavior-modifying fines upon a broad range of residential and commercial “polluters.”

    As we’ve pointed out in the past, the convergence of CO2 declared a greenhouse “pollutant” and animals listed as endangered by “climate change” creates a virtually unlimited potential for federal control over all manners of commerce and day-to-day existence.

    And speaking of furthering government control, Carol M. Browner — Obama’s choice for the new inanely-named position of “global warming czar” — is a dyed-in-the-wool socialist. She’s one of 14 leaders of Socialist International’s Commission for a Sustainable World Society, which, according to the Washington Times, “calls for ‘global governance’ and says rich countries must shrink their economies to address climate change.” For more on the eco-Marxism scam, see Noel Sheppard’s NASA’s Hansen to Obama: Use Global Warming to Redistribute Wealth and my own The Climate Alarmist Manifesto.

    Then there’s new energy secretary Steven Chu, another cap-and-trade champion, who declared at his confirmation hearing: “Climate change is a growing and pressing problem. It is now clear that if we continue on our current path, we run the risk of dramatic disruptive changes to our climate in the lifetimes of our children and our grandchildren.”

    And let’s not forget Obama’s director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. The Boston Globe recently reminded us of John Holdren’s own “contempt for researchers who are unconvinced that human activity is responsible for global warming, or that global warming is an onrushing disaster,” calling their ideas which “infest” public discourse “dangerous,” and that “paying any attention to their views is ‘a menace.'” Holdren also “contributed to a published assault on Bjorn Lomborg’s notable 2001 book ‘The Skeptical Environmentalist’- an attack the Economist described as ‘strong on contempt and sneering, but weak on substance.'”

    Card-carrying carbochondriacs — the lot: Unwavering advocates of a scheme proven both wholly ineffectual in GHG abatement and clearly antithetical to our essential economic recovery by its international precursors. And Americans are waking up to the fact that the green power they and those driving them desire derives not from infeasible wind, solar or geothermal sources, but rather from economic command and control.
    ————————————————————-
    Scare Watch: ‘Arctic warming is unprecedented’
    By The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/01/scare_watch_arctic_warming_is_1.html

    The scare: In late January 2009, a U.S. government report on Arctic climate, prepared by an international team of 37 climatologists, concluded that the recent rapid warming of polar temperatures and shrinking of multi-year Arctic sea ice are “highly unusual compared to events from previous thousands of years”. The report’s summary says, “Sustained warming of at least a few degrees” is probably enough “to cause the nearly complete, eventual disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet, which would raise sea level by several metres.”

    The truth: This report reveals very little that is new, and is predicated on a number of unproven assumptions, not the least of which is that the “global warming” that began 300 years ago, when the Sun was at its least active for 10,000 years, and continued until the latter part of the 20th century, when the sun was at its most active for 11,400 years, is chiefly anthropogenic. The mere fact of this warming, nearly all of which took place before humankind can possibly have had any significant influence, does not tell us its cause. Likewise, the mere fact that the warming has had effects on the climate does not tell us the cause of the warming. According to Scafetta & West (2008), some 69% of the warming of the past half-century was natural.

  32. We had enough hail in Jakarta on day to turn the ground white. I came home to find the staff all praying. They thought it was because we lived near the evil and corrupt vice-president. What is it with that office?

  33. The American Thinker website has three articles on AGW related topics today (1/25/09). The AT editors are following the political aspects, which should turn into a hot topic this year. So, if politics is not appropriate here, you can post at the American Thinker.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/

  34. OK, the other shoe has fallen:
    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/7810
    Some scientists even maintain that increasing CO2 levels may actually result in lower global temperatures. For example, a scientific paper, “Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect”, just published in the leading scientific journal Environmental Geology by University of Southern California (Los Angeles) Professor George V. Chilingar et al (read paper http://www.springerlink.com/content/c47m4x8222886n12/fulltext.pdf here), concludes:

    “rising concentration of CO2 should result in the cooling of climate.”

    So of course there is snow in the emirates. CO2 is rising and the weather is cooling after all !!! Unfortunately the article is not free .

  35. Consciousness and Anthropogenic Global Warming

    As a species we have a problem. Well lots of problems but the most evident is our illusion of consciousnesses.
    In believing we are conscious we actually have defined what consciousness is in an absolute term, rather than a relative term. There is no objective way of determining if we are indeed conscious, more so than other mammals or even if our consciousnesses is not an abstraction created by the need for the brain to coordinate all the different complex modules existing in our brain.
    Given that the brain is now recognized to be created fully equipped with all the necessary modules for managing the supporting structure (the body), modules for interpreting sensory input, modules for interacting with the environment and various others with varying degrees of complexity and purpose we can come to understand that our brain is primary a, albeit highly complex, reactive instrument.
    Lots of these modules have evolved over time into a standard structure, the mammal brain. These modules seem to be quite rigid in their scope and flexibility and operate way beyond our awareness. Nevertheless they are at the base of all our decision making process. Out of sight, quietly they do their work supplying information to the regulatory module of the brain.
    This regulatory module is the most important part of this brain, as it needs to correlate all incoming data and in split seconds make a qualified judgment as to what, if any, action is required. These judgments have been proven to take place without our advance knowledge and as such take place not out of free will but out of pure reflex. Research done on living human brain has demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that actions taken by our brain have a delay of being made aware of several tenths of seconds, depending on the amount of judgment needed up to half a second, before we become aware of the decision the brain has made for us.
    After the fact, note well. Our brain reacted to the environment and tried to put this into context some time later what they have done. Well filtered of all information deemed unnecessary by our brain it is presented in such a way that we have the illusion of being the instigator of the action, thus in full conscious control.
    But who/what is this consciousness ?
    Here comes the difficult part, accepting the above to be the case we have no objective way of judging our level of consciousness if the consciousness we try to determine is the determining agent. And even worse that consciousness cannot even objectively proven to be existent. We don’t really exist other then as an illusion created by the need for the regulatory module to have a continuous flow of action/reaction on which to augment its chances for survival.
    Now we, our consciousnesses, are put into interaction with others forming a vast network surpassing the scope of the single and with it the capability to create very complex adaptations of reality. Unfortunately the only ones who can test the accuracy of these realities are the very illusionary consciousnesses who created them in the first place.
    A prime example of this system in action is the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming. A vast complex theory has been constructed to explain a reality as we see it. The reality in this case being the ever changing climate as we perceive it. As we are forced by our brains to anthropocentric thought, the regulatory module just can’t surpass its own limits as being the creator of itself, we are forced to give ourselves a primary role in all what happens around us.
    Most people do this by religion, they put it down to their own failings in the eye of god and thus the deserving cause of all mishap. Others just create a religion and then blame it on themselves in this way. Others just don’t care one way or the other by having a less complex regulatory module and thereby being incapable to sustain the level of illusion needed or the having the means to assimilate the information.

    One thing is sure, whatever we think and whatever we do or don’t do we will never escape the entrapment of anthropocentric reasoning no more then a moth can escape the lure of a light at night.

    Were we able to escape this trap, we’d be able to accept the simple truth:

    The larger the scale the smaller the variance, nothing really matters at all.
    Turn all that creative energy to solving the enormous other problems actually happening now; poverty, violence and all that stuff.

  36. “rising concentration of CO2 should result in the cooling of climate.”

    So CO2 is a negative forcing?

  37. Thanks for posting- did you get my email first?

    REPLY: I didn’t see any email from you, but it may have been caught in a spam trap if a link was inlcuded. Anthony

  38. Peter Taylor got me thinking, for those who think we’re in for a prolonged period of cooling, how bad is it going to be? My motivation for this is the possibility of getting some grip. Maybe if we have an idea of what we will be dealing with in say ten years this will open out to be a source of power. America is looking pretty chilly already. The Dalton’s in Britain wasn’t that bad but if this winter is the beginning. Any estimates, visions, predictions?

  39. There does appear to be patches of 20-40% sea ice around northern Iceland on the latest cryosphere images, but this is probably just ice that has broken off the greenland sheet due a storm perhaps… I remember an image from about 4 months ago that showed trails of similar green extending far south, just off the coast of Canada but had disappeared from the next image.
    But then again perhaps the ice may form a bridge to iceland, which would be a first since 1961!

  40. Could someone, perhaps even an occasional visitor, point me to a peer-reviewed paper on anthropogenic climate disruption and its causes, with particular reference as to how we can mitigate this through atmospheric carbon dioxide control ??

  41. Just perused Joseph D’Aleo, “U.S. & Global Data Integrity Issues”, from link at IceCap. Great discussion of the contributions of Anthony Watts — surfacestations.org and WattsUpWithThat — and Steve McIntyre’s efforts. My question: Neither of you are listed in the “References”, pp 23-25; only print articles seem to be appropriate; shouldn’t the creative work and the science be referenced as such? Or, is there any discussion about how to cite blog efforts?

  42. Frederick Davies (02:13:42) :
    At this rate, how long until the expression “until Hell freezes over” looses it meaning, I wonder? ;-)

    Too late! From:

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=hell&wuSelect=WEATHER

    Hell, Michigan
    Local Time: 1:28 PM EST (GMT -05) — Set My Timezone Lat/Lon: 42.5° N 83.9° W (Google Map)
    […]
    Current Conditions

    Woodbury Park / R. Peter, Howell, Michigan (PWS)
    Updated: 1:27 PM EST on January 25, 2009

    18.5 °F
    Scattered Clouds
    Windchill: 18 °F

    18.5F looks frozen to me…

  43. Is it possible that the IPCC uses the radiative forcing concept to force their 25 or so computer models to produce the desired output of anthropogenic CO2 and bovine CH4 are collectively causing the Earth to warm?
    ———————————————————
    “The radiative forcing concept has also been used effectively in policy applications. The concept is already entrained in the policy dialogue, particularly through the emphasis given it in the IPCC reports. Policy analysts have input radiative forcing into simple climate models, which are used to examine a wide range of scenarios of past, present, and future climate. Comparison between these simple models and the more complex fully coupled models also helps in interpreting causal mechanisms in the fully coupled models (e.g., Murphy, 1995; Raper et al., 2001).”
    ————————————————————
    Could be that the “forcing” concept is more universal than, and could possibly replace, the Finagle, Bougerre and Diddle concepts combined.

  44. Smokey (08:58:18) :

    http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a788582859~db=all

    Published in: Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, Volume 30, Issue 1 January 2008 , pages 1 – 9

    “Computations based on the adiabatic theory of greenhouse effect show that increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere results in cooling rather than warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.”

    philincalifornia (10:04:02) :

    “….a peer-reviewed paper on anthropogenic climate disruption and its causes, with particular reference as to how we can mitigate this through atmospheric carbon dioxide control..”

    The Holy Grail might be easier to find. I doubt if that search had the equivalent budget pushed at it either ;-)

  45. United States & Global Data Integrity Issues

    By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

    January 27, 2009

    http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/DAleo-DC_Brief.pdf

    Issues with the United States and especially the global data bases make them inadequate to use for trend analysis and thus any important policy decisions based on climate change. These issues include inadequate adjustments for urban data, bad instrument siting, use of instruments with proven biases that are not adjusted for, major global station dropout., an increase in missing monthly data and questionable adjustment practices.

    Anthony Watts started a volunteer effort to document siting issues with all 1221 stations in US. He and his team is now through over 600 stations.

    An audit by researcher Steve McIntyre reveals that NASA has made urban adjustments of temperature data in its GISS temperature record in the wrong direction. The urban adjustment is supposed to remove the effects of urbanization, but the NASA negative adjustments increases the urbanization effects. The result is that the surface temperature trend utilized by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is exaggerated …

    The net warming in the UHI adjusted GISS US data set from the peak around 1930 to the peak near 2000 was a meager 0.15C. It may be assumed the same would be true for the world if we could make a similar needed UHI adjustment.

  46. philincalifornia

    Could someone, perhaps even an occasional visitor, point me to a peer-reviewed paper on anthropogenic climate disruption and its causes, with particular reference as to how we can mitigate this through atmospheric carbon dioxide control ??

    I commented on another thread (see below) on this, and while it is not exactly a paper, it is published in a highly-esteemed journal, Hydrocarbon Processing. The references are especially good reading.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/23/archibald-makes-an-ap-index-prediction/

    Then, do a *find* on Latour.

  47. There is a ‘back to the nineties’ mentality here in the States. We want to go back to the ‘end of history’ euphoria, the good economic times (even though it was a bubble), back to the foreign policy as well so there is no more war, only crime scenes. And I’m sure the AGW advocates wish to go back to the warmth then instead of trying to explain away, or ignore, the current cooling.

    And there is probably an expectation that when Cycle 24 ramps up, it will take us back there. Many, including me, strongly suspect that won’t be the case. We will know soon enough, but I feel the advocates are scrambling.

  48. anna v (08:54:31) :
    OK, the other shoe has fallen:
    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/7810
    Some scientists even maintain that increasing CO2 levels may actually result in lower global temperatures. For example, a scientific paper, “Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect”, just published in the leading scientific journal Environmental Geology by University of Southern California (Los Angeles) Professor George V. Chilingar et al (read paper http://www.springerlink.com/content/c47m4×8222886n12/fulltext.pdf here), concludes:

    “rising concentration of CO2 should result in the cooling of climate.”

    So of course there is snow in the emirates. CO2 is rising and the weather is cooling after all !!! Unfortunately the article is not free .”

    Thank goodness it is paywalled – you wouldn’t buy it based on that precis. Warming is the new cooling and cooling is the new warming. What miracles can’t CO2 achieve?

  49. Peter Taylor (07:25:58) :
    Nobody seems to be studying the jet stream – the key to these regional shifts. NASA’a early work on the LIA jet stream (Shindell) is more relevant than ever but they don’t seem to have followed it up.
    This is what I have been on lately… we need to quantify the jet stream and pdo amo etc.

  50. CO2 caused Global Warming, and CO2 is now causing Global Cooling.

    CO2, the cause, AND the solution of all man’s problems!

  51. TonyB
    ‘How by any stretch of the imagination is 56cm of rain per year in Central Victoria-around 22inches-considered a drought? The much derided British climate has this sort of rainfall in some parts of the east of the country.’

    TonyB while 56cm does not sound like a drought I can assure you it is. We have a deficit of 1.53m of rainfall over this period. Water storages are 2 or 3% of capacity and ground water is greatly reduced, I have seen dramatic dieback of drought affected vegetation – the landscape is changing dramatically.

    Having said this I do not think it due to AGW but it may be a shift in climate. As I said this drought is being used by CSIRO and politicians to promote AGW in the mainstream media. The Australian public is readily accepting a new tax in the form of an emission trading scheme that will allegedly save Great Barrier Reef and eventually the world. Plus carpetbaggers are promoting wind farms as part of this world saving plan and are greedily accepting taxpayer money for the priveledge of despoiling our landscape.

  52. TonyB while 56cm does not sound like a drought I can assure you it is. We have a deficit of 1.53m of rainfall over this period. Water storages are 2 or 3% of capacity and ground water is greatly reduced, I have seen dramatic dieback of drought affected vegetation – the landscape is changing dramatically.

    Having said this I do not think it due to AGW but it may be a shift in climate. As I said this drought is being used by CSIRO and politicians to promote AGW in the mainstream media. The Australian public is readily accepting a new tax in the form of an emission trading scheme that will allegedly save Great Barrier Reef and eventually the world. Plus carpetbaggers are promoting wind farms as part of this world saving plan and are greedily accepting taxpayer money for the priveledge of despoiling our landscape.

  53. >SE Australia has so far had one of its coolest summers in recent memory. The mean temp for Dec ‘08 was about 3 lower that it was in Dec ‘07. Yes we are finally starting to warm up and get the heat waves that are part of every summer.

    Temperatures for December were a little below average and January has been warmer than average (www.bom.gov.au/climate). With an extreme heatwave forecasted for the week ahead summer will be on the average at the end of January.

    Of course, this might seem cool because 2007 was the regions hottest year on record and recent summers have been very hot – indeed just last March the region experienced the longest heatwave event in history.

    Meanwhile its likely that the little town of Gascoyne Junction in WA will record the hottest month for any station for any month for Australia on record. This beats the record set just 2 summers ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW6047.latest.shtml .

    >In Central Victoria, Australia we are still in the grip of a drought that has now lasted for 8 years. It is the main reason The Age Newspaper (an influential Melbourne Daily) has been able to beat the climate change drum…

    The drought started in 1996. Its 12 years long – about 3 times the previous longest drought on record. Its also been the hottest drought on record by a long way – http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/special-statements.shtml. There is a large volume of scientific literature linking drying of the subtropics to global warming.

  54. DJ and Gerard,

    “…in the 1960s and 1970s, a retired [British] patent officer examiner, Arthur Pedrick, [obtained] patents on a range of … inventions… including UK patent number 1047735, which was his plan to get snowballs of 10 ft in diameter to run down mountains in Antarctica, attaining speeds of about 500 mph, then being piped to Australia where they could be used to solve [various problems].” — my insertions in brackets.

    Pedrick was a maverick, and obtained numerous patents on schemes that were deemed ridiculous or foolhardy. Yet, this one [GB1047735] may have some merit. It required digging a tunnel through the ice cap and under the ocean from Antarctica to Australia, then pushing giant ice-balls into the tunnel so that gravity and coriolis effect would propel the ice-balls to Australia. The friction in the tunnel would melt the ice, leaving fresh water to exit into a new lake in Australia. Cost of water delivered was not disclosed. Probably pretty high, I would imagine.

    The practical problems of course are immense. It might be cheaper just to install a rudder, mast, and sails on a giant iceberg and sail it to Sydney. I do not know if the prevailing winds are favorable.

    We had a similar proposal involving towing icebergs to Los Angeles to alleviate our water shortages.

    http://v3.espacenet.com/searchResults?locale=en_GB&PN=GB1047735&compact=false&DB=EPODOC

    Roger E. Sowell

  55. Peter Taylor (07:25:58) : Nobody seems to be studying the jet stream – the key to these regional shifts.

    It would be really interesting to have a thread here on this topic.

  56. Gerard

    My sister lives in Adelaide and I often joke with her that Australia is a barely habitable continent. A combination of cotton growing, farming, golf courses and population growth is often the problem. I do not know what sort of population Central Victoria can support, or if past practices such as licences for water extraction are making the problem worse. I seriously doubt whether Australias tiny population relative to its size can be increased by much without serious water related issues.

    Peter Taylor

    Yes, I am also very interested in the jet stream and the general notion that weather patterns are the forces that create the weather events that eventually become ‘climate’.

    For example here in the west country (of Britain) we have predominantly warm wet westerly winds. If that should change to the east-as happened several weeks ago-the character changes abruptly to very cold and dry in the winter or hot and dry in the summer.

    Combine that with the jet stream-we seem to be on the edge of its movements here in the UK-and we can have weeks of one or other sort of weather predominating-as happened for the last two summers when it was wet and miserable because the jet stream was stuck in the ‘wrong’ position.

    I did a study of sorts of the MWP and the LIA and it seems (very anecdotally) that the first was driven by persistent westerly’s and the LIA by persistent easterlies. (I need a very big grant to examine this hypotheses further)

    I do not know of any scientific study looking for correlation of weather/climate to jet streams or any dominant weather system. A thread would be interesting.

    TonyB

  57. TonyB (16:00:41) :
    “Gerard
    My sister lives in Adelaide and I often joke with her that Australia is a barely habitable continent. A combination of cotton growing, farming, golf courses and population growth is often the problem.”

    Tony
    Most of the golf courses here in Adelaide are irrigated with recycled water from the local sewage treatment plants, often in combination with groundwater from bores. Very very few courses are irrigated with potable water due to the cost and the governments. water restriction regimes. A number of courses we are involved with (I am a golf course architect) have implemented stormwater harvesting and Aquifer Storage & Recovery schemes (ASR) that treats urban stormwater through a series of wetlands before pumping it back down into the aquifer for later reuse. This water would otherwise flow out into the ocean and be lost. So golf in Australia is very water mindful and responsible.
    Neil

  58. Odin749, Gerard, DJ at al

    From my perspective as a farmer the only sensible way to view the Australian climate is through the prism of its extreme variability; along with Sth Africa the most variable in the world so I have read. From my place in Nth Central Vic. the autumn break (when I get sufficient rain to go from dry brown to green) can vary from March to June. If it comes in June it is then getting too cold for much growth and I then have to wait until late August for things to happen. Rather than using average annual rainfall which tells you nothing of when the rain fell, I use growing season rainfall(GSR), April – Oct.
    Over the last 50 years our average rainfall is 565mm and GSR is 369mm. The last 10 years 467 and 293 respectively and in 2008 average of 408mm and GSR of 166mm. You’ll notice that most of the rain in ’08 fell when it was of limited use. Anyway you look at it 2008 was a shocker and is only beaten by 1982 with a GSR of 132mm.
    Off topic? Not really, it just shows that extremes are normal. The trend though is another matter.

  59. Neil Crafter (17:12:20) :

    TonyB (16:00:41) :
    “Gerard
    My sister lives in Adelaide and I often joke with her that Australia is a barely habitable continent. A combination of cotton growing, farming, golf courses and population growth is often the problem.”

    Tony
    [Good stuff deleted.] So golf in Australia is very water mindful and responsible.

    So, are there country clubs where membership is open only to nudist vegans who have been sterilized?

  60. Tony writes:

    I do not know of any scientific study looking for correlation of weather/climate to jet streams or any dominant weather system. A thread would be interesting.

    H Lamb’s book on Climate history and modern man, of which a part is here looks at how the Jet Stream has changed over England Lamb’s book. Page 54, figure 18,shows how westerly winds have changed over time over England since 1340

  61. It’s official mother nature has gone 100% insane when it comes to what the weather in Virginia is suppose to be like…..I mean, geez, January is suppose to be the snowiest month where I am at….yet, we didn’t see a single flake in December, Were suppose to get around 4 inches in an avg. January but we’ve only had a dusting……NOOOOO, can’t have a big snow here but you can have it in places where it snows very little if any like Houston, Raleigh, Las Vegas, and apparently, the United Arab Emirates……..Something tells me that the man upstairs doesn’t have any lovin’ for the VA snow geese….

    Despite that I have noticed over the past few years that the weather here has resembled arctic regions more and more actually….During late fall it’s been snowing more and more often…The air is warm enough to support moisture but cold enough to freeze it (Just like way up north). When winter comes we’ve been getting very little snow because it’s been to cold to support moisture (Just like way up north). Signs of a cooling earth? Only time will tell.

  62. TonyB (07:32:15) :

    Gerard

    How by any stretch of the imagination is 56cm of rain per year in Central Victoria-around 22inches-considered a drought? The much derided British climate has this sort of rainfall in some parts of the east of the country.

    TonyB

    In my area, the normal range of precipitation is 20 to 40 inches annually. Anything below 30″ is considered below normal. A few years of 25 inches would be well within the normal range, but considered to be a drought.

  63. Spending Christmas (both there’s and ours) in the Northern Ukraine. No clouds in the sky, just wonderful blue, but snowing, -32c and dry, dry, air that took your breath away.

  64. John Galt and Gerard

    I remember reading that irrigation in hot countries caused its own problem by compromising already scarce water supplies. Firstly there was considerable evaporation from systems that sprayed water on crops or golf courses from a height as that was lost to the system. Secondly the additional humidity had a noticeable effect on raising temperatures.

    I suspect that Australia has about reached its optimum population bearing in mind its climate and standard of living. Do the Austrailans posting here agree?

    TonyB

  65. A Wod

    Thanks for the great link-so my amateur research was right-a change in our prevailing winds have had a big impact on our climate.

    Now all I need to do is get hold of a few million in grant to study it further…

    tonyB

  66. TonyB (15:53:40) said:
    “I suspect that Australia has about reached its optimum population bearing in mind its climate and standard of living. Do the Austrailans posting here agree?”

    Optimum is in the eye of the beholder I think TonyB.
    I’ve heard some deep Greens say that our optimum is around 8.5M and then I’ve heard that the Australian farmer can grow enough food to feed between 45M and 60M people. The last few years would indicate that available water is probably the limiting factor. Given that Oz is amongst the most urbanised country on this good Earth and almost everyone wants to live on the coast and water has been an issue I would say that the present number is quite enough. Does the world need more of us?

  67. Halycon

    Optimum is probably a better word than sustainable as the latter indicates a level probably incompatible with modern lifestyles. The Uk is probably 10 million above our optimum figure and 30 million above the sustainable figure.

    It never ceases to amaze me how urbanised Australia is, which as you rightly say is because most people want to live on the coast.

    Whatever criteria you want to use it seems unlikely Australia can absorb too many more people without adversely affecting the environment and the Oz lifestyle.

    TonyB

  68. Mike Bryant (13:17:40) :
    CO2 caused Global Warming, and CO2 is now causing Global Cooling.

    CO2, the cause, AND the solution of all man’s problems!

    Well there’s your answer! Can I get a grant to identify the differences between the ‘warming CO2’ and the ‘cooling CO2’? But identifying each and choosing only to emit the appropriate one at the appropriate time we can have a productive economy AND manage the climate!

    I think $1,000,000 is all I would need to model this (lets see, $100k/yr, 10 years to retirement, yea, a million will do it…) I will publish the solution to all our problems with a decade!

    /sarcoff>

  69. Please read the article here:

    http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/General/10278477.html

    The snowfall was at an elevation of 5700 feet. Not unheard of to get snow at that elevation. It happens. It is a known fact that snow lines drop in elevation during winter. It’s not like it was snowing in the middle of the desert. This one event doesn’t prove anything. There’s no word for snow in the local lanuage because the word for hail can be used for snow as well. Barad – balls of snow. Not much of a stretch there. Sensationalism can be used on both sides of the argument.

  70. HI… areas of the world are having warmer winters ( Artic ) and others areas are having colder winters.. (Australia ).. mother nature is fed up with the way mankind is treating it.
    Thanks for the read, it was very interesting.

  71. Hey EM,

    I have learned much from your comments. I am looking forward to your exposition of the GISS computer programs. Now maybe if you quit sleeping at night you can get them out a little quicker. Only kidding. People like you are making the world a better place for science (and for people too!) I hope your findings become a post here, and also at ICECAP and CA.

    Sorry it took me so long to respond. This site has outgrown my capacity to keep up with it! I’m not complaining though. The more people that realize what is really happening, the better.

    Mike Bryant

  72. Edward Morgan, Tony B and AWod regarding jetstream and its impacts (food especially):

    I first became interested in the jetstream when seeking alternative drivers for the warming – to add to Svensmark’s ideas, as well as Tinsley on electric currents – all tied in to a solar maximum (Leif’s comments notwithstanding!) – and IPCC’s dismissal of the unusual state of the sun (referencing Muscheler who argued the sun was also hyperactive in 1790according to be-10 and c-14 proxies).

    When ‘warming’ is examined, it boils down to storage of solar energy in the top 200m of the oceans – most of it coming in to the tropics and subtropics where there is little cloud or wind compared to higher latitudes. The heat doesn’t stay there as perusal of the sea surface temperature and depth average temperature data shows – it moves south and north toward the polar seas. The southward movement gets entrained in the circumpolar current – about 2000km of unimpeded cicrculation in a region of permament heat deficit – and over a few years, the heat is dissipated. Northward – however, it gets trapped in longer term stores – gyres, in areas that are subject to cloud banks and winds that vary its exposure and cooling – the 1980-2005 period is the only really unusual warm period (without it no AGW) – and it coincides with thinning cloud (ISCCP data, 4%), enough to provide all the GW heat from increased SW radiation to the sea surface. The question is – what determines the shift from warming to cooling? I think there is a link between the solar status and the jetstream – demonstrated by the southerly shift in 2007 and 2008 summers. This is Shindell’s work but maybe Hansen voted the funds elsewhere? The same would have happened in Dalton and Maunder Minimums but when longer, the cooling intensifies and it is primarily a northern hemisphere event with repercussions for the rest, but maybe not the Antarctic.

    The track of the jetstream determines the rate of heat loss from the upper ocean store – follow the intelliweather maps for 2006 – an uploop dumps heat in Alaska, and by the end of that year – the store is exhausted, the PDO shifts, Alaska starts to cool (and the Beaufort Gyre will get rechargedfrom a cold Alaskan shelf – hence pushing out warm Atlantic water and reversing the ice-loss (2008). If I am right, 2009 will carry on that process.

    Meanwhile, the cold north pacific feeds back to the standing wave structure of the jetstream (Charles Perry alerted me to this) – it shifts further south, and the Atlantic loop shifts longitudinally too – at times it goes up toward Massachusetts with a high pressure block in the middle, and comes down on Europe with Iceland’s air mass, rather than up from the Azores. (our recent cold spell). Another Arctic high is developing right now.

    Last summer I asked Hadley who they had working on what shifted the jetstream. The answer was nobody. Too busy with their GCMs!

    If anybody would like to engage in further discourse – my website at ethos-uk.com has some material I will be updating shortly. My main interest in all this is actually ecological – ecosystem stability for food, water, and biodiversity, but I have huge problems engaging in discourse since I criticised the whole modelling approach in an eco-journal! There really is an inquisition out there.

    And Anthony – I really appreciate this site!

  73. Peter Taylor

    This sounds very interesting.

    I will drop by your web site.

    Certainly in the Uk we have been the wrong side of the jet stream the last two years. As you say, ‘solar storage’ is in the top layer of the oceans so as it warms will cause outgassing or asbsorption of co2. I believe co2 rises follow temperatures which in themselves are closely related to solar activity. Iit gets warmer via solar activity (mostly) and more co2 is outgassed and vice versa. Then on top of all this you have the various currents-air and water-transferring this heat.

    Interestingly co2 seems to have its own distinct jet stream according to the Airs data.If you see this post before the thread drops off the edge could you let me know when you expect to get your web site update?

    TonyB

  74. Mike Bryant (17:39:47) :
    Hey EM,

    I have learned much from your comments.

    Thank you. I try to ‘keep a tidy mind’ and part of that is keeping the cruft out from untidy and poorly thought through folks. That tendency was what first brought me to the skeptics side. The ‘others’ were just so untidy in their thinking. A side effect of this ‘tidy mind’ behaviour is that it becomes easy to explain things to other folks. Basically, leave out the broken bits and the rest fits together well, and clearly. I’m just glad I can be of help, to anyone.

    I am looking forward to your exposition of the GISS computer programs. Now maybe if you quit sleeping at night you can get them out a little quicker. Only kidding.

    I’m putting bits and pieces of it out on different threads as they become clear and as the thread provides an opportunity to ‘fit’. (And keeping a written running log, too.) BTW, my ‘sleep profile’ drops to about 4 hrs/night when I take on a STEPx of the GISStemp code. It’s a common thing with software folks. There is so much to hold in the brain at one time that taking a 4 hour break costs you about 2 hours (as what you just sucked up fades). So you tend to pull ‘all nighters’ to get to the “Ah Hah!” moment of full understanding. This is also why the software guys work until 4 a.m. but the hardware guys tend to come in at 7 a.m. and work 8 hours…

    People like you are making the world a better place for science (and for people too!) I hope your findings become a post here, and also at ICECAP and CA.

    Again, thanks. I’m looking for where to send the final analysis. I’m only about 1/3 to 1/2 done so it will be a while…

    Sorry it took me so long to respond. This site has outgrown my capacity to keep up with it! I’m not complaining though.

    No worries. I know what you mean. I got sucked into the Coral thread for more time than I care to admit. Only now doing a ‘look back’ to earlier threads… I may need to ‘take a sabbatical’ from posting to blow through the GISStemp code and be done with it…

  75. Peter Taylor (05:44:37) :
    If anybody would like to engage in further discourse – my website at ethos-uk.com has some material I will be updating shortly. My main interest in all this is actually ecological – ecosystem stability for food, water, and biodiversity, but I have huge problems engaging in discourse since I criticised the whole modelling approach in an eco-journal! There really is an inquisition out there.

    Fascinating post! I’ll be visiting your site for a look see. Similar interest in the food / eco angle (though with a bit of a population dynamics economics twist – Econ includes Malthus and the whole issue of population growth, decline, etc. not just dollars…)

    It is interesting how asking a question leads to ‘excommunication’ isn’t it? Never knew I was a republican nor rich oil company loving hack until then ;-) Ah well, that’s how a church spits into new denominations… maybe eventually we’ll have our own “protestant reformation” home.

Comments are closed.