I don’t know about you but I’m relieved that the weather won’t be “static”. – Anthony
Contact: Carmeyia Gillis FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-763-8000, ext 7163 Nov. 20, 2008
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook Calls for Variability
In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.
With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season (climate patterns that give forecasters clues about potential weather events months in advance), predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather.
“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”
Regional Outlooks
· Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.
· Southeast: Increased chance of above normal temperatures in the central and western parts, along with below-normal precipitation.
· Central Region: Increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures, with above- normal precipitation anticipated in parts of the central Plains.
· Western Region: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures, and an enhanced likelihood of below-normal precipitation across parts of the Southwest.
· Alaska: Milder-than-normal temperatures except along the southern coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.
· Hawaii: Above- normal temperatures for eastern Hawaii and below-normal temperatures for western Hawaii. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation throughout the state.
The U.S. Winter Outlook does not include a snowfall forecast. Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
Prepare for winter weather through NOAA Watch, http://www.noaawatch.gov. The site gives you the latest weather patterns, forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA’s National Weather Service. Also, tune in to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards to get your up-to-the-minute local forecast and warnings.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
On the Web:
NOAA’s 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Winter Weather Safety Information: http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/winter.php
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Here in Denver it has been a very pleasant late fall/early winter.
Earlier this week, a record high of 77 was set.
I’m not sure, because of the station siting, whether this is truly a new high or not, but the snapdragons in a sheltered part of the garden were thriving up to yesterday.
Haven’t had a chance to see if they survived last night’s frost. Doubt it. There was a lot of ice on the windows.
Warmer is better than colder.
Any of you who follow Joe Bastardi over on the Accuwx pro site know what he would say about this – this is NOT a forecast – just a probabilty scheme built for easy verification. So look at that map & the “warm” bullseye – 50% chance of what ??? 1 deg above normal ? 10 deg above normal ? what’s the other 50% chance ? average ? below normal ? how far below normal ? This is not what most would call useful information. How about a map that contours a forecasted temp anomaly – may be with a 1 deg contour interval. Easy to understand, easy to verify against observed. Same goes for the NOAA seasonal precip maps – put out some maps with contours as a % of normal precipitation – maybe with 10% contour intervals. Again, easy to understand, easy to verify.
I can hear the cries from NOAA now – “but we can’t forecast that accurately” and behind closed doors – “our errors & lack of expertise will be too obvious with those type of maps”. Yet, we are supposed to believe in temperature forecasts by similar groups 100 years out when a good product can’t even be put forth for 3 months out.
Call me crazy, but this seems like a huge disconnect here. I don’t fault them for not being able to make high quality forecast maps – the weather (& climate) is complicated – but that’s the point. If it’s that complicated, how do expect to get it right in 100 years. I do fault them for not applying the same logic (probability scheme) to longer term climate forecasts. Or at least be consistent – give us simple to verify maps for the seasonal products, just as we have easy to verify temp vs time curves for AGW (which BTW aren’t verifying too well at all over the last several years).
Patrick Henry (11:27:13) : Said:
Today the BBC is forecasting heavy snow for London on Sunday. If true, that will be the first time in years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml
Patrick, London already received its first snow this year.
“Carbon fools day” in UK
“28th October 2008 will go down in history as ‘carbon fools day,’ a sad day for democracy and science, a day when opposition parties failed to challenge a dangerously unsound policy, devoid of any real scientific basis, without any hope of influencing climate change. Ironically, it was also a day when London saw the first October snow since 1974.
The accuracy of Env. Can seasonal forecast leaves something to be desired, to say the least. 41% accurate. Here is the verification of last winter: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/charts_e.html?season=djf&year=2007&type=t
The next (past, present, future) few (more, less, same) months will (won’t, may) be (or not) slightly (greatly) colder (hotter) than (then) normal (abnormal, better, indifferent).
Behold! The Age of Hope and Change.
The 111th Congress will pass legislation defining comprehensive standards for permissible, seasonable weather and a specification for an ideal climate which will be achieved through social engineering legislation. The climate and weather laws legislated by the Congress will supersede the laws of Nature.
I dare say that any “man off the street” could predict weather that will be ” above-, near-, or below-normal,” free of charge. The “man off the street” would have included “normal” in his prediction in the interest of comprehensiveness, as in “above-, near-, at-, or below normal.”
I think the weather will be just the opposite of their predictions but my prediction may change like revisions to solar cycle 24 predictions and eventually I will be 100% correct.
Well, what did they show the current weather to be? It’s way be normal here in Ky as I watch the snow fall.
Here in Brisbane Australia, we have had the worst rainstorms since 1974. Out of the woodwork came the inevitable experts crying ‘All due to climate change’ http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24683537-11949,00.html
So what was 1974 due to? (Actually cyclones. but 1893 wasn’t, nor 1890). In 1893, ocean going steam ships were washed ashore into the local Botanical gardens when the Brisbane River flooded.. 6/2/1893 The lower part of South Brisbane completely submerged. The flood rose 23’9″ above the mean spring tides and 10 feet above flood mark of 1890; north end of the Victoria Bridge destroyed. Climate change once again?
Interesting, it’s not what Joe D’Aleo discusses in http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=155 . He uses a graphic from NCEP/NCAR that is closer to his thinking and has only the southeast above average by a little. It has the Dakotas and environs at -4F of average. (1950-1995)
I’m in New Hampshire and am grateful that we had some warm days early this month to finish getting a yurt up because things have sure flipped to the cold here. The storm track is to the south like Joe has been talking about since when he wrote the Old Farmers Almanac article at http://www.almanac.com/timeline/
My favorite:
“Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms……”
NOAA’s long term forecasts tend to exaggerate warm anomalies and play down cold anomalies. Gee, I wonder why? Could it be a “model thing?”
It sounds like the traditional English weather forecast for a day:
“Sunny periods with scattered showers”.
About covers everything, I think.
It’ll be warmer because they’ll fix the data to make it warmer.
Norm (11:50:46)
And I don’t buy the “above normal” over the Eastern part of Canada. This November has been BELOW NORMAL , with every likelihood of continuing so through the winter.
That forecast is ignoring the possibility of a return to La Nina conditions. With all of the various models it has at its disposal, I think the forecast is dependent primarily on “Optimal Climate Normals,” basically a trend analysis using 10 years for temperature, and 15 years for precipitation.
For alternate views, read Klaus Wolter, here:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/index.html#execsum
Also, the “official forecast” gives more weight to OCN, and less to the dynamical models, like the CFS Ensemble:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.shtml
We have no choice anymore.
We need Global Warming because to many things depend on it:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Now you know why they cook the books.
That couldn’t be any more different than what Joe D’Aleo’s forecast over at ICECAP: http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/another_cold_december_to_march_for_many_locations/
In fact, Joe’s map is from NOAA: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DECMARUS.jpg
What’s up with that??!?
Last Spring UK Met predicted/forecast a hotter summer than usual; we had a cool wet summer. August this year was among the coolest and wettest on record.
In September they predicted/forecast a milder(warmer) winter than usual. So far London has had snow in Central London in October, the first time since 1934! I’m am told that the temperature in Central London (Leicester Square) on the evening of the London premiere on the new Bond movie was -7 Centigrade.
Quite clearly a mild winter so far…not!
Ric Werme, MattN,
Do either of you know the original source of that “DECMARUS.jpg” map that Joe is using? I’d like to know where it comes from.
There are lots of experimental and unofficial “products” done by NOAA people. As I mentioned earlier, I think the current official long-lead (0.5 to 12.5 months) forecasts are heavily weighted toward simple OCN trend analysis.
Well, they wouldn’t call it “Forecasting” the weather if it weren’t only a step away from reading the entrails of animals or throwing bones to determine the harvest omens.
It certainly seems that the media is putting a lot of weight on the long-term predictions of a group who have a difficult time telling you what the weather is going to be like this weekend.
It has to be the only profession where they go ahead and admit in their name that they really have no idea what is really going to happen. 🙂
In seriousness, though, I’m glad my job doesn’t have the same level of uncertainty.
Knew an old NOAA guy-he was the office director of Klamath Falls Or.
back in the 80’s.He told me:”You are safe when you say:’partly to mostly
with a chance of…’ then no one is mad at you.”
The technical term to describe NOAA’s forecast is that they are “sh*ting bricks”. They need to keep up the warming forecasts even though it is colder than normal in most places until Waxman and others can “fix” the climate change problem. Just my opinion.
Well, I just happened to be over at the Accuweather site to look at the long range forecast for Thanksgiving and happened to notice that they are having some serious cold back East. Looks like they had lows of 3F (three degrees above zero) in Eastern Tennessee and 5F in Western North Carolina last night. An Alberta Clipper has passed through and some areas of the Great Lakes are expecting up to 3 feet of snow by the end of the weekend. The map shows snow all the way down to Southwestern Virginia. Houston is looking at temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50’s this weekend … which are January/February temperatures, not “week before Thanksgiving” temperatures.
Sounds to me like it will have a “chilling effect” on global warming talk out of Washington for the coming week or so.
This is the URL to the report I was reading on the weather for the coming week in the Southeast.