I don’t know about you but I’m relieved that the weather won’t be “static”. – Anthony
Contact: Carmeyia Gillis FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-763-8000, ext 7163 Nov. 20, 2008
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook Calls for Variability
In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.
With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season (climate patterns that give forecasters clues about potential weather events months in advance), predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather.
“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”
Regional Outlooks
· Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.
· Southeast: Increased chance of above normal temperatures in the central and western parts, along with below-normal precipitation.
· Central Region: Increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures, with above- normal precipitation anticipated in parts of the central Plains.
· Western Region: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures, and an enhanced likelihood of below-normal precipitation across parts of the Southwest.
· Alaska: Milder-than-normal temperatures except along the southern coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.
· Hawaii: Above- normal temperatures for eastern Hawaii and below-normal temperatures for western Hawaii. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation throughout the state.
The U.S. Winter Outlook does not include a snowfall forecast. Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
Prepare for winter weather through NOAA Watch, http://www.noaawatch.gov. The site gives you the latest weather patterns, forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA’s National Weather Service. Also, tune in to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards to get your up-to-the-minute local forecast and warnings.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
On the Web:
NOAA’s 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Winter Weather Safety Information: http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/winter.php
– 30 –
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The climate will fluctuate.
=================
When asked about the stock market, JP Morgan supposedly said “I believe it will fluctuate.”
My friends in Fairbanks tell me it is much colder than normal for this time of year.
So, it might be warmer. Unless it isn’t.
Alaska is having one of their coldest years in decades, and temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska have been persistently below normal. One has to wonder what has gotten in to the NCDC water supply for them to make a forecast like that.
For “we expect variability” read “we don’t know”.
I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say they might be slightly off with regard to Alaska. Time will tell.
Reminds me of a BBC weather forecaster’s response a few years ago when asked on radio for a prediction about the coming winter.
After a moments thought he replied “Colder, and dark earlier”.
They really don’t have a clue do they. Understand what?
Some subtle changes from their previous forecast. Although weak, the MEI numbers I last looked at were around -0.70 which is into the weak La Nina category, but close enough to call it neutral I suppose.
In recent years I have rarely seen CPC put any area of the United States in a Below Average category and almost every season there will be below average regions of course. 2/3rd of the lower 48 has been seeing below average temperatures in 2008, yet, rarely any such forecasts and the winter forecast above is yet another example.
I personally lean toward especially the northern tier east of the Rockies to see below average temperatures this winter, especially in January and February, but considering I live in that area. I hope I’m wrong. 😉
I wonder what Vegas would make of those odds, especially when there is, for example, “Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures”
in the western region. Maybe the MGM Grand could add a climate section to the Sportsbook and really make things interesting.
Do we know what average is? The numbers have been changed so much and the collection points are incorrect, what is average?
My late granddad use to say: Best of a guesswork is far preferable to the worst of the science.
Sounds like the experts are unable to come to consensus as to which side of the coin is heads and the other side, tails. Continuing flips of the coin seem to require massive federal grants.
Maybe they can ask James Hansen to roll his dice.
http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/11/14/james-hansen-throwing-die-for-climate-prediction/
I was watching the BBC in 1970. During the interlude after Monty Python’s Flying Circus, a strange looking weatherman with buggy eyes came on the screen and gave the UK forecast, which gradually degenerated into a hilarious narrative about “darkness and serpents crawling out of the sea after midnight.” Turned out to be Marty Feldman – first time I ever saw him.
Today the BBC is forecasting heavy snow for London on Sunday. If true, that will be the first time in years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml
I don’t know about the rest of you but I’ll keep my trust on the old farmers almanac over the NOAA forecast.There’s an excellent article in the 08-09 old farmers almanac on global cooling and the fact that it is A cycle.The old farmers almanac is right 80% which is A lot more than I can say for NOAA. Second NOAA is getting money under the table so to speak and they always show 40% chance of above normal or 33% chance of equal chance.I don’t see how 40% chance of above normal would be more than 60% below normal.The last time I checked 40% was less than 60% and as far as equal chance I could see maybe 40 to 45% but not 33% .Shouldn’t that be 66% chance of below normal temps??????One last thought. I just looked on NOAA site which goes out through dec09 jan10 and there is NO blue on any map next year and if you look at dec09-jan10 it shows above for about 75% of the U.S. what a joke.Noaa keep on dreaming.
“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance . . .”
Since I’m in the West, I focused on the outlook for that area: “Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures . . .”
Thank goodness we have those long-term climate models to tell us what the temperature will be a century from now. It’s much easier to tolerate a complete lack of certainty about what will happen next month, when we can take comfort that we have the average temperature pinned down for the year 2100.
I am increasingly entertained by NOAA’s labeling on the bottom of their reports: “NOAA understands…”
Out here in the West too (Calgary)… and every “climate indicator” I’ve seen (berries, animals) indicates to me, personally, in a non-scientific and indefineable way, that this is going to be a cold, cold winter.
The tragedy here is that I’d bet real money on my vague feelings and unscientific method against any “forecasts”, any day of the week.
The US forecast map for DJF contrasts quite a bit compared to the Environment Canada projections for the same 3 months as shown here: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234fe1t_s
The Canadian version shows below normal next to Alaska in a pattern, if extended, would indicate below normal temperatures for Alaska in DJF.
Watts up with that?
What the hell does NOAA mean by “normal” – maybe it refers back to only “naturally” perturbed, pre-“AGW” conditions? Pehaps only NOAA “understands”, because I’ll bet no one else does.
– ‘Sorry, the use of “normal” when referring to averages, weather, and climtae just bugs me.
“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center.
The Deputy Director of the Climate Prediction Center is only willing to go out two weeks?
The juxtaposition is sweet.
“Western Region: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures”
Gee! That sounds like the year round forecast in Colorado. If you are leaving the house, pack everything from shorts and sandals to parka and mukluks, you will probably need them all in one day.
70 degrees yesterday, 30 today.
J. Peden –
if you look at the NSIDC ice edge picture it shows whats there and what the median is…only it didnt use to say “median ice egde”…it used to say “normal ice edge”…which i found quite amuzing since we only started watching the north pole in 1979
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun…
Talk about self-promotion!
And what’s with all those white areas in the U.S. marked “EC”? It looks to me that for those areas, no matter what happens, NOAA cannot be wrong and they can tout how good they are in forecasting the climate, er, I mean weather.
Cold winter? Nope. No way. In DC its supposed to be 39F the next 2 days — a mere 20F below the average for DC. Snow TWICE before Thanksgiving is, well, unprecedented.
Early November was warm ,the last half is treating us to Jan like weather.