After GISS’s embarrasing error with replicating September temperatures in the October analysis, the NASA GISTEMP website was down for awhile today (at least for me).
This evening, the new gridded data was posted, and I generated a world temperature anomaly map with the new data. It clearly has some changes in it from the previous erroneous version.
See below:
GISTEMP 11-12-08 – Click for larger image
You can plot your own here at this link to GISTEMP’s map maker
Now compare the above corrected version with the erroneous one below:
GISTEMP 11-11-08
I’m sorry for the small map, as I was traveling during much of this debacle, and was not able to be online much at all. This one above comes courtesy of Kate at SDA who saved one (thanks Kate).
Note the bottom scale, the top end on the erroneous one was 13.7°C, while the corrected one tops out at 8°C. That alone should have set off alarm bells at GISS. Personally, I don’t believe the 8°C anomaly either, since much of the Russian weather data is suspect to start with, and the data distribution is sparse.
So far, no mention of the new data beyond this yesterday at the NASA GISS news page:
2008-11-11: Most data posted yesterday were replaced by the data posted last month since it looks like some mishap might have occurred when NOAA updated their GHCN data. We will postpone updating this web site until we get confirmation from NOAA that their updating programs worked properly. Because today is a Federal Holiday, some pages are still showing yesterday’s data.
We live in interesting times.
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British Islands have changed too. Rat !
“The error was fixed so quickly”. After it had been released. With some fanfare. Having been found by someone else.
That would be embarassing to any organisation. Other than the GISS, apparently.
Western Europe still looks too warm.
Off topic: I’ve been predicting the following for some time, with no one really taking me seriously. Now here it is!
GORE AS CLIMATE CZAR!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/12/obama-tap-nations-climate-car/
The USA is headed for a dictatorship.
Look here to compare anomalies for surface temp 2005 when done by NASA and done by Ole Humlum – see what dramatically different messages they convey.
From the chart at the top of this post, NASA have their anomaly from 1951-1980 baseline, the last global temp downturn time, whereas Humlum has his anomaly from 1998-2006. So of course NASA looks hot – and it doesn’t reveal the current trend. And – very convenient that SST are largely missing? since surely those reveal most unequivocally the current trend, if compared to an appropriate baseline date range?
The corrected map is still about one degree too warm for northern Europe. Take a look here:
http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=11490&l=sv
Click “Månadstemperaturavvikelse 2008 oktober” and look at the map for 2008-10-31.
I think the folks at GISS are painting modern art, and nothing more.
SWAG HudCRU: +0.47°C
Anthony: Expect a bit of confusion this morning. I had to delete my browsing history in order for the new map to appear, otherwise I was getting a replay of the old version.
So, with the ocean data added, the global GIStemp reading is at 0.58 deg C and that makes it the 5th warmest, not warmest October.
Something like that cannot happen and doesn’t happen to professionals .
People working with data in the real part of the world and being professional make always sure that they don’t use not updated or wildly fantastical data .
Of course for amateurs there is nothing embarassing about blunders in trivial quality procedures , they don’t care .
The problem is that those people are selling themselves as professionals what they clearly are not .
And that is embarassing because there is nothing more pitiful than a somebody who pretends that he is what he is not .
Its all quite pathetic really, even the period of anomaly 1951-1980. Talk about cherry pick a time when it was substantially cooler.
The ice is flat-out NOT going to refreeze at the record pace it has been refreezing at with the Arctic 2-8C above normal. Does not compute….
jcbmack (22:31:38) Hey, mack, the Arctic ice cap is freezing up in front of your eyes. Why do you sometimes call it an ice sheet? Do you know why it isn’t a sheet? Do you know why it isn’t nice to just fill in numbers from the previous month? Do you know that the globe is cooling, for how long even kim doesn’t know?
The models are wrong. They use a figure for water vapor feedback that is too high. Check out Roy Spencer’s latest work.
You are apparently a strong ‘true believer’. Learn about the cooling and warming phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and notice how the last warming phase of it coincided with the warming of the last quarter of the last century, the only time period of the 20th Century in which temperature approximately matches the rise in CO2. Do you ever wonder why CO2 has risen steadily for the last decade, while temperatures have gone flat and now started to drop? You have a lot to learn, kiddo.
==========================================
How is it possible that the difference between September and October is +0’08º(0’50º-0’58º), if the difference in land is +0’02º (0’63º-0’65º), and oceans +0’01º (0’33º-0’34º)?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
When discussing new ice forming and surface temperature it is wise to consider where the heat goes that comes out of the water -> ice phase transition. Some clearly stays in the remaining water, the rest…
This new GISS data still diverges greatly with satellite temps for same period
Tito,
It’s the new math.
Just checking the station data in one of the “hot” areas over Pakistan:
WeatherUnderground reports that Panjgur, Pakistan had a mean temperature of 23 degrees C in October, and 26 degrees C in September. GISS has recorded temps of 25.3 and 28.6, respectively.
Zahedan, Iran’s mean temp in WU is 20 degrees in Oct. 24 in Sept, but GISS has these temps as 21.6 and 26.2.
In almost every case, GISS’s high anomaly locations are using mean temperature data that are 1-2 degrees C higher than those in WU.
Dal Bandin, Pakistan:
WU: Oct – 24; Sept – 28
GISS: Oct – 26.7; Sept – 30.8
Yes, Giss is closer to reality now, however, South America they have got wrong still.
Siberia is warmer in the fall of years when there has been great ice retreat from the arctic. The arctic ocean keeps the air warmer.
But this cools the surface water. Therefore more rapid freezing is in fact possible even though air temperatures are higher…
But: This higher airtemperature does in no way indicate warming since it comes along with cooling of the arctic surface water. And therefore the slightly higher fall 2007 and 2008 global temperatures is not a sign of permanent warming. November and december is ligkely to show massive fall in global temperatures, as i have mentioned earlier.
By the way, GIss still has south America totaly wrong:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/attachments/amsu.jpg
Richard: “Off topic: reading in new scientist two articles this morning. I am no climate scientist or indeed a scientist but i am not convinced.”
“Humans may have prevented super ice age ”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16026-humans-may-have-prevented-super-ice-age.html
“The ice age that never was”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926721.600-the-ice-age-that-never-was.html
Still OT but on the subject of ice ages, past and future, there’s also this today from the Mail Online (via Tom Nelson).
“Lead author Thomas Crowley from the University of Edinburgh and Canadian colleague William Hyde say that currently vilified greenhouse gases – such as carbon dioxide – could actually be the key to averting the chill.”
“Professor Crowley said the stark findings do not mean we should stop fighting warming. But he urged: ‘Don’t push the panic button.’”
I’ve seen quite a few press releases with wording similar to “… findings do not mean we should stop fighting warming”. It’s almost like a standard disclaimer on the lines of “Terms and conditions apply”, “Always read the label”, etc.
A degree or two here a degree or two there, and we can create any trend we want.
Speaking of sea ice. Look at the default Cryosphere Today comparison to 2008:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh
Not a whole lot of difference.
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Since the temperature for Ireland is different between the graphs i checked what it offically was.
“Mean monthly air temperatures were below normal everywhere, by around one degree generally.”
For anyone interested a summary of monthly weather conditions for Ireland can be found here: http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-summary.asp
Maybe you set the selected parm incorrectly or do not read the charts properly? The line graph shows latitudinal anomaly, not global and when seeing near 3.5C+ way north, it’s a sign.
Of my interests are the hemispherical versus Global:
Global:
2007 85 61 59 64 55 53 53 56 50 54 48 40 56 59 72 59 54 50 2007
2008 14 25 62 36 40 32 52 39 50 58********** ********* 26 46 41***** 2008
NH:
2007 127 87 90 103 57 60 57 67 62 77 74 71 78 81 107 83 62 71 2007
2008 19 43 102 43 54 53 53 53 51 88********** ********* 45 66 53***** 2008
SH
2007 44 36 28 26 52 46 48 44 38 30 22 8 35 37 36 35 46 30 2007
2008 8 6 22 29 25 12 52 25 48 28********** ********* 7 25 30***** 2008
Since 90% of the world population lives on the Northern Hemisphere it’s the October 0.88C that is relevant to HSS. That’s the region where an even greater percent of the Carbon is burned… e.g. USA under 4% of global populous but near a quarter of the fossil fuel burning.
Met Stations NH shows even higher @ur momisugly 0.92C anomaly and we do live on land I think.
2007 159 118 115 127 81 79 79 89 76 99 97 98 101 104 136 108 83 90 2007
2008 35 53 124 59 70 64 62 57 59 92********** ********* 62 84 61***** 2008
Whilst Met Station SH show 0.44C anomaly for October
2007 54 40 31 28 64 30 51 64 67 49 34 23 45 46 43 41 48 50 2007
2008 36 10 25 27 17 10 67 18 72 44********** ********* 23 23 32***** 2008
It’s the angle of view one “chooses” to take.
Now, the ice is not refreezing astonishingly as MattN notes. Arctic Sea Ice “Area” deviated only 200,000 km square from the same day last year, speak about Nov. 3. SIA October mean remained below all previous years since 1979.
http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/ArcticSIASIEOctober.png
The “kiddo” understands more than kim thinks he knows. There’s a whole array of pseudo scientists that learned to use a reverse polish calculator and type numbers as were it a regular accounting office version.
Ever computed what the “cooling” would have been without that near 40% CO2 increase? CH4 is the next bang awaiting us. The values are up after 10 years of reduction.
Anyway, until evidence is presented beyond the silly stuff like “unresolved discrepancy of 0.001C” that was printed here in red on Sunday by the head blogger, I’m a firm believer that HSS has a major hand in the affair. Got an issue with that?
I live right at the foot of a major ski resort and it’s not pretty when it’s Real Feel temps of 21C in November when it should be 5C and less down below. People used to drive here with their skis on the car roof all winter and spring… now we hardly see that, particular since the turn of the millennium. Anecdotal, but fact to me.
Harold Ambler hit the nail on the head.
The corrected data makes even less sense.
It is dubious at best for Siberia to be so warm while the Arctic, according to the actual photos, is icing over at rates similar to 1979.
I think the GISS folk are playing games and they think they are immune to getting caught.