After GISS’s embarrasing error with replicating September temperatures in the October analysis, the NASA GISTEMP website was down for awhile today (at least for me).
This evening, the new gridded data was posted, and I generated a world temperature anomaly map with the new data. It clearly has some changes in it from the previous erroneous version.
See below:
GISTEMP 11-12-08 – Click for larger image
You can plot your own here at this link to GISTEMP’s map maker
Now compare the above corrected version with the erroneous one below:
GISTEMP 11-11-08
I’m sorry for the small map, as I was traveling during much of this debacle, and was not able to be online much at all. This one above comes courtesy of Kate at SDA who saved one (thanks Kate).
Note the bottom scale, the top end on the erroneous one was 13.7°C, while the corrected one tops out at 8°C. That alone should have set off alarm bells at GISS. Personally, I don’t believe the 8°C anomaly either, since much of the Russian weather data is suspect to start with, and the data distribution is sparse.
So far, no mention of the new data beyond this yesterday at the NASA GISS news page:
2008-11-11: Most data posted yesterday were replaced by the data posted last month since it looks like some mishap might have occurred when NOAA updated their GHCN data. We will postpone updating this web site until we get confirmation from NOAA that their updating programs worked properly. Because today is a Federal Holiday, some pages are still showing yesterday’s data.
We live in interesting times.
There’s a Suess Cycle?
Tell me it isn’t so.
Tell me where to go.
I must read on this.
Is it better than Giss?
Who is this, Mr. Smith?
You must tell me forthwith.
False application of parsimony (Occam’s Razor) and we already understand the Milankovitch changes and alterations in the earth’s orbit.
Is this a response to my post? Are you suggesting Milankovitch cycles are responsible for the temperature fluctuations over the past century?
I’ve just noticed EM Smith is effectively asking the same question so feel free to respond to him if you wish.
From John Finn (02:42:43) :
I don’t necessary agree with EM about the current cooling. I think that unless another strongish La Nina develops there will be (there already is) a rebound in the coming year,
-end quote
From the UN weather agency thread
From Fernando (14:38:59) :
OT
Born:
a healthy girl: La Niña
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.12.4.2008.gif
-end quote
‘Nuf said?
This baby girl is so big and strongish, it was likely born by C-section! And you know what they say about C-sections.
They are a cut above.
da dum
E.M. I do not read wiki pages. I am a scientist and teacher, and you are missing several points that are raised by bringing up the Milankovitch cycle, it is as shame you lack the background to understand.
Oh and yes, nets and other adaptations will lower incidence and prevalence of malaria, however, it also certainly a function of temperature and humidity, take a course in microbiology and you will this, John.
I promise to answer your questions John and E.M., this will be when I can devote more time to the answers, Friday and Sunday of this week, not to worry, your questions will be given solid data.
E.M.Smith (15:51:29) :
Explain Bond Events.
There is no 1500 year or 1470 year [or whatever such number] cycle in solar activity, so Bond events must have a different explanation than the Sun. Gerald Bond and I have often discussed this and Gerald never really claimed that his events were caused by the Sun. He said that a 1500-year solar variation might be an explanation, if such a cycle could be demonstrated.
Leif Svalgaard (21:54:19) :
Gerald Bond and I have …
Come to think about it, his name is Gerard, but he calls me Lief, so what the heck…
Oh and yes, nets and other adaptations will lower incidence and prevalence of malaria, however, it also certainly a function of temperature and humidity, take a course in microbiology and you will this, John.
I listened to Paul Reiter who
“is a professor of medical entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France. He is a member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and Control. He was an employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 years. He is a Fellow of the Royal Entomological Society. [1] He is a specialist in mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.[2] ”
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Reiter
He was quite clear on the matter
From the UN weather agency thread
From Fernando (14:38:59) :
OT
Born:
a healthy girl: La Niña
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.12.4.2008.gif
-end quote
‘Nuf said?
I never doubted there might be a La Nina. Note, though, that we are not going to be in an “official” La Nina state for several months even if ocean SSTs continue to cool. In fact my main point is that the so-called “cooling” is simply due to the La Nina phase of ENSO. There’s no evidence that this is a long term trend. Global temperatures are still above the 30 year average and still warmer than the 1998-2001 period when the last major La Nina took place.
One, Wikipedia needs a lot of work and two I took microbiology with a top expert on malaria, HIV, and the immune system and was one of the earliest reseacrhers to make headway in both as a microbiologist and immunologist; atleast give me more credible sources, wikipedia is starting to improve, but I actually took the courses,performed the literature reviews and I am familiar with the reseacrher you refer to.
from Leif Svalgaard (21:54:19) :
E.M.Smith (15:51:29) :
Explain Bond Events.
There is no 1500 year or 1470 year [or whatever such number] cycle in solar activity, so Bond events must have a different explanation than the Sun.
-end quote
Leif, this is the second time I’ve referred to Bond Events near statements about solar cycles and you have taken that to mean that I’m asserting that there must be a 1500 year solar cycle. I am very careful to refer to Bond Events as weather/climate cycles; and maximum / minimum events as solar cycles. Do I have to say “Bond Event – it’s a climate thing NOT A SOLAR CYCLE” every time I use the words Bond Event? Is not “Bond Event” already saying that (as opposed to maximum / minimum)?
Please rest assured I do not assert Bond Events are caused by a demonstrated 1500 year solar cycle (and in another thread stated that I thought there was more likely a 2400 year solar cycle with some error bands.)
Might there be a 1500 year cycle? I’m willing to say maybe (after Singer, Bond, Avery…) but don’t see enough proof one way or the other.
This still does not let jcbmack off the hook to explain why climate / weather moves in Bond Events and how ‘people did it’ is a better fit than some other cause (which even further up thread I said might be the sun did it OR random weather cycles. I just didn’t want keep repeating the whole thing every post. It gets tedious.)
from jcbmack (19:10:26) :
you are missing several points that are raised by bringing up the Milankovitch cycle, it is as shame you lack the background to understand.
-end quote
Nice personal attack, thin on facts though. Name the points. I’m still waiting for you to show how a 20,000ish year periodicity can cause a few hundred year weather cycle. Precession? Axial tilt? Elliptical orbit variance? Polar ice cycles?
The insult style and lack of substance is a very weak argument on your part.
-continue quote
Oh and yes, nets and other adaptations will lower incidence and prevalence of malaria, however, it also certainly a function of temperature and humidity, take a course in microbiology and you will this, John.
-end quote
Again with the personal attack style. What can I say? You are just as wrong on my background as you are on malaria.
I’ve worked on more hospital wards and taken more bio courses at university (including bacteriology & genetics) than I care to think about, thanks. I’ve also had entomology courses which are more relevant here.
I have lived in areas with long histories of malaria but at hospital we saw only a few cases each year. The reason was not nets; it was spray trucks, water trap draining, mosquito fish, and antibiotics. Good public health systems and mosquito abatement districts. This in a place where winters were in the teens F. Hardly ‘warm’. Summers were 100F+ though. Change that to 20s in the winter and 105+ in the summer and not a thing will be different to the mosquitos. Nothing.
Or are you asserting that malaria is running rampant in Florida and the rest of the southeast states along with the central valley of California? They all have plenty of warmth and humidity. And please explain the historic malaria outbreaks in cold climates, like Britain and Russia. I suspect that you can’t.
The notion that a warmer planet means more malaria is fundamentally broken. It’s just scare mongering.
E.M.Smith (19:17:55) :
Please rest assured I do not assert Bond Events are caused by a demonstrated 1500 year solar cycle
OK. And, BTW, I’m also convinced of the reality of the Bond Events. Gerard did a good job on me. I take the existence of Bond Events as a sign of natural, internal climate cycles.
No you have not… antibiotics do not always work and in the high risk areas there are numerous reinfections. Malaria can be spread through one of several vectors even in cold climates, and even places with traditionally cold climates can have periodic warm phases that support malaria spread. California has primarily dry weather, not humid, I live in CA, have been to Florida and I lived in Ny.
But now for your dare, I can explain in detail why malaria can, has and will at times spread in cold northern climate regions and potentially other cold areas as well: summer dormancy of hypnozoites and transmission of sporozoites indoors by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climate conditions did not change this relationship, but the epidemics brought about by vast numbers of active mosquitoes were still found to be a function of temperature and humidity, which helps in the breeding of anopheles. Preceding summer conditions were still found to be an important factor in the force of the winter malaria breakout and P. Vivax was the major cause of breakouts in Scandinavia and Finland in the nineteenth century. P. falciparum, the most virulent form was not stopped by cold climate, but a short summer or cool summer did not well support the dormant phase. All this information is available on google, google scholar a good under graduate textbook and a graduate textbooks gives some great details on the molecular aspects of the various phases of the four infectious causative agents of malaria.
I brought up Milankovitch for two reasons;
1.) there misconceptions as to its effects and relevance to the current climate change discussion and I have seen many try and use it to describe its effects in a manner to discredit global warming. I was not suggesting that the changes describe very short term cooling trends, some posters here have claimed that there has been a several year cooling and even decades worth, here some might argue involvement of seasonal changes, localized weather patterns building up into a global cooling trend.
2.) minor perturbations in the system can be traced, though not usually so short term to milankovitch among other phenomenon which influences orbit, wobble and tilt, to put it simply. So, some localized seasonal effects may influence data collection and graphs one might derive, which may influence results especially with a good deviation from a temp change with a mild room for error.
I am certainly not claiming myself that Milankovitch can cause a cooling (or warming) globally suddenly in 2008.
For further reading;
Climate Process & Change
By Edward Bryant
The Geology of Stratigraphic Sequences
By Andrew D. Miall
From jcbmack (23:05:22) :
But now for your dare, I can explain in detail why malaria can, has and will at times spread in cold northern climate regions and potentially other cold areas as well: summer dormancy of hypnozoites and transmission of sporozoites indoors by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climate conditions did not change this relationshipe textbook […]
-end quote
jcbmack, please accept my profound apology. I was clearly wrong in doubting that you could demonstrate mastery of why malaria is able to do quite well, perhaps even thrive, if very cold climates. I was wrong. You did a magnificent job of it.
And now that you have demonstrated that malaria is both a warm and cold climate disease, I will move on from the topic…
You also said: “California has primarily dry weather, not humid, I live in CA”
I took this to imply that you think that malaria is not a problem for a low humidity place like California. I will also assume I was wrong about what you meant and that you know about the history of malaria in California. For those who are not aware, I’ve added some information below. (The central valley of California can be either dry or humid depending on weather. It always has mosquitos though, unless controlled.)
From: http://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/ucmrp/news/malariaawarenessevent.html
UC Davis’ first chancellor, entomologist Stanley Freeborn (1891-1960), wrote the first comprehensive review of mosquitoes in California, Vanderhoef noted. A California mosquito that transmits malaria (Anopheles freeborni), bears Freeborn’s name.
UC Davis spearheaded the formation of the statewide UC Malaria Research and Control Group, part of the UC Mosquito Research Program, both directed by Lanzaro. The group, formed in February 2006, is comprised of 21 scientists from five UC campuses, partnering with MVCAC, which includes more than 60 mosquito abatement districts in California.
[…]
UC Davis medical entomologist Robert Washino, introduced as “the person who knows more about mosquitoes than anyone else in California,” said that six U.S. presidents, from George Washington to John F. Kennedy, contracted malaria.
“Malaria was introduced in California in 1833,” Washino said, “and it shaped the history of our state.”
Malaria swept through fur trapper, native Indian, pioneer and gold miner populations, Washino noted. It was eradicated in the 1950s, but outbreaks still occur; the most recent outbreaks surfaced in San Diego County in 1986-89.
[…]
“We have to be vigilant,” Washino warned. “Five of the Anopheline mosquitoes that transmit malaria are still here in California.”
and
Lanzaro predicted the UC Malaria Research and Control Group, with its noted scientists and mosquito abatement experts, will be hugely successful in combating malaria in Africa. “The Mosquito and Vector Control Association of California has the most sophisticated mosquito-control program in the world, and we’re taking that over to Africa,” Lanzaro said.
and further down
Mosquito abatement experts helped wipe out malaria in California and Mulligan predicted “we can do the same in Africa.”
I’m sure you are aware of why California has such a capable vector control program.
From: http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00000251.htm we have a couple of cases of malaria from the 1980’s in the central valley of Ca.
Editorial Note: Considering the average 14-day incubation period for vivax malaria, and the travel history of the 2 patients, the infections reported here were most likely acquired in the northern part of California’s Sacramento (Central) Valley. Historically, mosquito-transmitted malaria in California has been confined to the Central Valley where ecologic habitats provided by irrigated farmlands–including fruit orchards and rice fields–are ideal for the breeding of A. freeborni, a highly susceptible vector of vivax malaria. In addition, non-refugee agricultural workers from malarious countries provide a reservoir of vivax parasites in such areas as Sutter and Yuba counties.
and
The patient lives 3 miles south of Marysville in a semi-rural setting next to the Feather River and within 1/4 mile of rice fields and orchards. He had not been employed regularly since December 1980. In the spring and summer of 1981 he did extensive fishing and camping throughout Sutter and Yuba counties, and often received many mosquito bites.
My hospital work was at U.C. Davis medical center (I’m an alumni of U.C.D.) and a local community hospital. I grew up swimming in the Feather River in a town a dozen miles or so from Marysville… Yes, C.V. California IS a malaria zone, though controlled via pesticides, water control, and (as the cases in the above link demonstrate) prompt control of active cases with antibiotics (antimalarials) to control sources of parasites. And we’re taking that road show to Africa.
Sidebar: Completely unrelated, but interesting… Plague is endemic to the rodents of California. Every year we would have a case or two reported to the Yolo County health department. Promptly controlled with antibiotics, so it doesn’t hit the news, but still… The idea that “fluffy” the squirrel might give you Black Death is a bit disconcerting! Every so often some survivalist will rant about how after the quake they will live on squirrel stew and I just shake my head (and cherish my stash of Doxycycline in the fridge…)
With that, I’m done with this thread. We clearly both agree that malaria can live in cold and warm, wet and dry, and that good public health and modern medicine are more important to disease control than anything else.
lol, thank you for that joke, E.M. Smith, I never laughed so hard, and given the theories my students came up with this week, I needed that. Until you gain a background in epidemiology and read the CDC data and “The Microbial World,” you are just not able to understand the nuances of this discussion and the issues of malaria in light of global climate change and the need for nets and the fact the antibiotics abuse is the number form of drug abuse in the world…good day, thank you for the sense of humour.
You should read Harrison’s Principles of Internal Medicine… you never know who you may be chatting with in regards to medicine.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/307/5716/1769
You don’t have to read farther than “Two global coupled climate models show…”
Jeez, jeez, did you have to be so quick?
In any event, the abstract says, in part:
So, roughly, a sea level rise of 3.2% a year. So, since 2005 (or a little earlier, given when the paper was submitted), we should have seen a 10% sea level rise since then.
Perhaps they were not expecting a linear distribution of the sea-level rise over the remainder of this century, otherwise I would have to say their prediction has failed.
It is not a linear distribution… how could it be?
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