September 12th, 2008 Ozone hole over the Antarctic
From NASA News
This is considered a “moderately large” ozone hole, according to NASA atmospheric scientist, Paul Newman. And while this year’s ozone hole is the fifth largest on record, the amount of ozone depleting substances have decreased about 3.8% from peak levels in 2000. The largest ozone hole ever recorded occurred in 2006, at a size of 10.6 million square miles.
The Antarctic ozone hole reached its annual maximum on Sept. 12, 2008, stretching over 27 million square kilometers, or 10.5 million square miles. The area of the ozone hole is calculated as an average of the daily areas for Sept. 21-30 from observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite.
What I find most interesting is this press release from last year from NASA:
NASA Keeps Eye on Ozone Layer Amid Montreal Protocol’s Success
NASA scientists will join researchers from around the world to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.
In that PR they write:
“The levels of ozone depleting compounds in the atmosphere continue to drop, thanks to 20 years of scientific advances following the signing of the Montreal Protocol.”
“The Montreal Protocol has been a resounding success,” said Richard Stolarski, a speaker at the symposium from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The effect can be seen in the leveling off of chlorine compounds in the atmosphere and the beginning of their decline.”
No mention of the possibility of cosmic rays then, but in the face of a reversal, I wonder if maybe they’ll consider alternate suspects. Sometimes I think of our current atmospheric science like a stubborn district attorney that refuses to look beyond what he considers the prime suspect.
“We’ve got our criminals and their names are CO2 and CFC, I’m confident that the forensics will show them guilty beyond a shadow of the doubt”.
Trouble is, if forensics had the same sloppy data gathering and adjustment procedures as we’ve seen climate science, the defense would have the forensics tossed out easily.
h/t to David Walton
“emergency rescue of human civilization” !!
“strategy for human survival” !!
The guy needs valium.
Steve Goddard,
Joe D’Aleo has also posted on sea ice at IceCap (Nov 8).
It’s approaching the 1979-2000 average. You know, during a time when things were “normal”.
So here’s the picture:
Ice and temps are normalising, yet we got Nobel laurates Gore and Pachauri screaming at the top their longs that we’re about to go over the edge.
And now we’re finding out that the ozone hole is not solely caused by humans.
Tom, “I do want to say that DDT was not a hoax.”
You may want to look at some scientific studies. Here are many studies that have been collected by junksciencedotcom. Just in section VI there are 26 studies about eggshell thinning.
Thanks,
Mike Bryant
OT – here’s one way to reduce the CO2 emissions from power generation that’s sure to upset a few environmentalists. Article in today’s UK newspapers “Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/09/miniature-nuclear-reactors-los-alamos
We might just need this if we’re all going to go for electric/hybrid cars.
Lance: DDT FAQ and myths.
I hope there is a special place in hell for Rachel Carson and William Ruckelshaus.
Perhaps the 8th ring, and the 8th and 5th Bolgia, respectively..
http://www.junkscience.com/ddtfaq.htm
Lance: Start here, at Junkscience.com The part on eggshell thinning reads :
Citations and conclusion at source.
John Cooper asks
“What about the millions of tons of chlorine injected into the atmosphere from volcanoes, the oceans, and other natural sources?”
According to this link:
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/Ozone/depletion.html
Most of the natural chlorine compounds are oxidized to water-soluble compounds in the lower atmosphere and get washed out; most of it doesn’t make it up into the stratosphere.
It is unconscionable that the atmosphere not comply with the Montreal Protocol. Fortunately the next Administration is prepared to deal with this. Al Gore will put it all right when he is Environmental Czar. http://www.aninconvenientblog.org/
“Banning DDT saved thousands of raptors over the past 30 years, but outright bans and misguided fears about the pesticide cost the lives of millions of people who died of insect-borne diseases like malaria. The 500 million people who come down with malaria every year might well wonder what authoritarian made that decision. “-Reason Magazine Ron Bailey 2004
http://www.reason.com/news/show/34742.html
Of course the first part of the comment is speculation, the last, cold hard truth.
It goes much deeper than that. Use of DDT by 1960 (“it’s perfectly safe; dump heaps of it all over creation” and then pour on some more) standards was weakening eggshells. Maybe. (Or not.)
Modern methods of use would have would have had zip effect on birds. But instead of reforming DDT use, it was banned. The results were horrific.
Fortunately, the WHO has (finally) STRONGLY endorsed the reintroduction of DDT–using modern methods.
Almost no one who opposed the use of DDT will ever admit their mistake nor alter their opposition to the use of DDT in any form at all.
(P.S., When I was helping clean out my aunt’s old house, we came across a sack of DDT. So of course I had to eat some. I like to take the opportunity to put my mouth where my money is.)
“We’ve got our criminals and their names are CO2 and CFC, I’m confident that the forensics will show them guilty beyond a shadow of the doubt”.
This is a classic statement of specious, spurious science. Guilty without proof. A tenet of the AGW alarmists.
How long will science tolerate the Algore/UN/IPCC kangaroo court, where the verdict was decided in advance?
When will the uncontaminated forensics be brought out of the shadows? In that event the truly guilty criminal will be revealed.
Uh, how much did you eat?
How did it taste?
Got any left?
Does anyone know if the Astrophysics (Solar Physicists in particular) or Particle Physicists have looked at this problem?
Military History for me, too. (And a bit of wargame design.)
You want to put a shout-out to Leif Svaalgard, our local (and world-famous) solar expert.
Incidentally, my father managed to get ahold of DDT in the early ’60s. We did not have a cockroach for three years. Then the company “improved” its formula. The cockroaches returned and we never did get rid of them after that. (I can’t get rid of them in my slum, either, no matter how hard I try.)
Did the DDT taste ok?
To tell you the truth, it was rather tasteless. I confess to being slightly disappointed. (But that strange buzzing in my ears went away, after a tiny gasp.)
Uh, how much did you eat?
Around a teaspoon.
How did it taste?
See above. I once read about someone who confused it with salt and used it for years. But it didn’t taste at all salty to me, so I suspect that may have been suburban legend.
The advantage of DDT is that it’s safe for pets (unless you go in for ant farms), and kids. When they sprayed malathion a few years back during the West Nile Virus scare, they had us do the chemical weapons strike skull-and-crossbones duck-and-cover drill. (They say that stuff will take the paint off your car.)
My objection to the DDT ban is that the alternatives are far more dangerous to wildlife of any stripe (and humans) and far less effective against insects. So the ban was not only terribly damaging, but utterly self defeating.
Got any left?
How I wish! But unfortunately my cousins (who do a bit of gardening) snagged the lot.
EvanJones: How long did you spend in the emergency room getting your stomach pumped?
Brooklyn Red Leg (10:42:54) :
“Does anyone know if the Astrophysics (Solar Physicists in particular) or Particle Physicists have looked at this problem? Does anyone know what particles or rays may in fact interact ‘negatively’ (if that is the right word) with ozone? Please, I am a layman so be gentle (I studied Military History…..ie – the wheres, whys and hows of people blowing crap up throughout the ages).”
Actually this is the province of a photochemist , neither an astrophysicist or a particle physicist. It is the low energy electrons knocked off during the passage of cosmic rays through the atmosphere that are supposedly responsible for a highly magnified photochemical reaction. So this means any kind of charged cosmic ray.
http://www.science.uwaterloo.ca/~qblu/research-I.pdf
Note that the electron-induced dissociation cross sections of CF2Cl2 in the gas phase
and adsorbed on the surface of H2O ice (Eq. 4) are respectively four and six orders of
magnitude higher than the photodissociation cross section of CF2Cl2 (Eq. 1).
EvanJones: How long did you spend in the emergency room getting your stomach pumped?
The stuff is harmless to mammals. This is very fortunate as DDT is persistent as all hell, was very widely used (and abused), and everyone over a certain age has at least some hanging out in their fat cells. Including the polar bears.
Now, the early use of DDT was very irresponsible: Yes, the stuff was utterly harmless, longterm. But if it HAD been harmful, we would ALL have been in for it.
Sort of like the July 1945 A-Bomb test. Teller estimated that there was a 2% chance of setting the atmosphere on fire–and they went ahead and did it anyway. Now it turned out that there was no such risk, but they didn’t know that when they tested. It turned out fine, but it was, in one sense, one hell of a reckless risk.
Tom in Texas: (cold in Florida?)
Well thought out.
Knowing that Evan Jones and Jeez.
Both have stomach problems.
Both use medicines that release CO2.
Conclusion;
CO2 is beneficial to skeptical.
What I don’t understand is why we see an ozone hole at the South Pole but not at the North Pole?
Most of the CFCs released were released in the Northern Hemisphere, I would estimate ten times as much, because that is were most of the world’s population and industry is. How much of the Northern Hemisphere released CFCs reached the South Pole?
A good resource for background information on atmospheric ozone is the book entitled “But Is It TRUE? A Citizen’s Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues.” (Aaron Wildavsky, 1995)
This is a terrific manual for what is sorely needed in this world – “Citizenship in Science.” In fact, that is the title of one of the chapters. Not only is the CFC/Ozone scare thoroughly described, but a range of other topics including DDT, asbestos, Alar, and yes, global warming. The AGW meme was apparently in full flower by 1995, differing hardly at all from the way it works today.
The book is unfortunately out of print. When I inquired at B. Dalton’s, they kindly tracked down a used copy for me at another bookstore (not their chain). Maybe Amazon can get it, I have not checked.
It’s a must read for anybody following this blog.
This is my first post, and I want to thank you, Mr. Watts for your extraordinary energy and dedication to rooting out the climate deceptions as soon as they sprout. Thanks also to many informed posters. I’ll be following this blog as long as it exists.
I don’t have stomach problems, really, although I will drop an occasional antacid.
Chris V – If NASA says Volcanoes produce little stratospheric chlorine because the huge amounts of tropospheric chlorine is rained back to earth … I’d like to see if certain NASA Administrators had a hand in the press release.
And I’d still bet their computer models are wrong.
So what does this do for Qing-Bin Lu’s theory that Cosmic Rays are a prime agent in affecting the Ozone layer?
Will they choose to highlight this highly relevant information, or will they choose to seek out some concept which boosts the idea of rapidly disappearing ice?
Steve, Steve, Steve. I’m surprised at you. Aren’t you aware that the increase in sea ice is merely the result of all those disintegrating glaciers?
Nothing to see here. Move along.