Not much time for a full report, as it is very late for me, but I’ll pass this along from comments. Looks to be cycle 23 due to low latitude. – Anthony
Looks like a sunspot has appeared recently, as of Oct 9, 1600. Magnetogram also shows a spot. Is this the last spot that had blinked in and out?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/javagif/gifs_small/20081009_1600_mdi_mag.gif
H/t to Glenn
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http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html has all the sun images in the different spectrums and a pretty cool search engine. If you click on the more links I think it shows you a full 24hrs of pictures.
I wonder what is happening to the web stats for the various Solar Science sites? I bet solar scientists are preparing new budgets for new experiments based on them. And I’d much sooner give money to solar scientists than
scam artists and fraudstersclimatologists.spot on anthony even solar 24 is admitting it and they want 24 to come rushing
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
I don’t think any of the presently active volcanoes are energetic enough to drive meaningful amounts of gas and debris into the stratosphere to cause measurable cooling. Kasatochi’s Aug. eruption has made lots of beautiful sunsets but I haven’t heard of any cooling. Since no-one in the MSM or the AGW crowd paid the slightest attention to the warming of the other planets except Mercury (???) during the Solar Grand Maximum, they will ignore any cooling of other planets as well. The Big Lie must be defended at all costs.
At the moment there is a sunspot visible, possible SC24. And it is not a tiny tim. For those without telescope check the latest SOHO images.
Mount Wilson is reporting no sunspots for Friday October 10, 2008. Note comments about the size of sunspots in this drawing.
ftp://howard.astro.ucla.edu/pub/obs/drawings/dr081010.jpg
The Belgium SIDC has assigned a number 1004 and a value of 12 but I can no longer see any spots on the SOHO images. Very strange reporting all around.
Meanwhile a moderately sized sunspot cluster has developed on the Sun’s northern-hemisphere high-latitude eastern-limb. It appears to have a SC24 signature and a value in excess of 15. This one appears to be growing in size and is a keeper.
SC24 certainly is ramping up now, 2nd “powerful” SC24 in a month has appeard on the sun.
Time of SC24 sunspecks will soon be over, atleast for this minimum.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/
There is a new cycle 24 sunspot group this morning (local time, Norway). I took this image of the new spots through my garden telescope.
http://arnholm.org/astro/sun/sc24/sun_20081011_1100ut_rot.jpg
New cycle 24 appears. Looks to be visible. Not a tiny tim.
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
Solar 24 is reporting:
“A new Cycle 24 sunspot has quickly formed high in latitude in the northern hemisphere of the sun. There is atleast 2 clearly visible flux regions along with it.”
see link above
Oh cool – a new sunspeck, actually, sunSPOT! SC24 even. Multiple pixels per spot! Maybe we’ll finally get this turkey going.
It looks like solar cycle 24 is finally kick-starting,,, a new ss24 region on the far side of the sun should rotate into view this week
Carsten Arnholm, Norway (05:26:20) :
Pretty impressive garden telescope. Umm, what’s a garden telescope? Apparently it’s not just a garden ornament.
From Kevin’s “Solar Cycle 24 Photo Timeline,” it looks like this may be the biggest Cycle 24 region yet.
http://www.solarcycle24.com/sc24.htm
Thar be hope for a min in ’08.
There is second magnetic plage region forming on the Sun’s northern-hemisphere high-latitude western-limp with a SC24 signature. No viable spots as yet.
STEREO “Behind” Image shows an even larger, even higher latitude region just now rotating into view.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml
I monitor both ozone and neutron/cosmic ray stuff. Cosmic ray measurements are headed up, up, up! Planetary K index is also up. And a mid latitude aurora showed up. If the Sun’s magnetic field is still languishing in the basement and/or dips into the negative range, this stuff could come right at us.
Take a peak at recent neutron measures!
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
I just checked the polarity of the solar magnetic field and it is clearly in the negative range. There is also an uptick in the solar wind. From what I have gleaned from Leif’s discussion, this condition sets up a solar magnetic route into Earth’s magnetic field, essentially linking them together. One would then expect to see a surge in cosmic ray particles getting to the measuring sites on Earth. Cool.
Pamela Gray (09:01:24) :
Cosmic ray measurements are headed up, up, up! Planetary K index is also up. And a mid latitude aurora showed up. If the Sun’s magnetic field is still languishing in the basement and/or dips into the negative range, this stuff could come right at us.
New solar activity will cause cosmic ray to come down again [with a few months lag]. The Sun’s magnetic field strength cannot go negative [ever!], and probably has hit bottom [at around a tad larger than 4 nT] by now.
I think I recall you writing back regarding one of my questions that Bz can go negative. Explain to me again what that is and your comment that cosmic rays then have a conduit. Is it the solar wind that can go negative? In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles?
Pamela Gray (09:27:57) :
I just checked the polarity of the solar magnetic field and it is clearly in the negative range
The polarity is just which way the field is pointing, not its strength.
There is also an uptick in the solar wind
There is one [or more] every solar rotation. The particular one today has been with us for years, faithfully returning every 27 days. When it finally dies, SC24 will be finally on its way.
From what I have gleaned from Leif’s discussion, this condition sets up a solar magnetic route into Earth’s magnetic field, essentially linking them together.
The solar wind field at large near the Earth usually points East or West [that is the polarity] depending on which side of the Heliospheric Current Sheet we are on. In addition, there are much shorter periods where the field can wobble North and South. It is when the field is pointing South that the best connection exists.
One would then expect to see a surge in cosmic ray particles getting to the measuring sites on Earth.
No, the Galactic cosmic ray flux is largely determined by the state of the whole heliosphere [not particularly near the Earth] and will decrease with solar activity picking up.
Still “cool” though.
[…] magnetic field, essentially linking them together.
The solar wind field at large near the Earth usually points […]
So MR Svalgaard. So do you think of the biggest sc24 sunspot? It seems everybody thinks that sc24 is on it way up now from this. Or we still have a longs ways to min.?
So when it is negative, it is pointing where? Please remind me of what you said about linking up or creating a hole that particles can pass through. Is it a cycle? Or does it happen without any kind of regular pattern? It seems to stay mostly positive (IE pointing elsewhere?).
Pamela Gray (09:56:20) :
I think I recall you writing back regarding one of my questions that Bz can go negative. Explain to me again what that is and your comment that cosmic rays then have a conduit.
A magnetic field is what is called a ‘vector’ quantity [unlike temperature, for instance]. Vectors have a strength and a direction [the compass needle points north – except Chinese needles that point south :-), really – no kidding]. One way to describe a vector is the give three numbers: how much of the field is pointing towards the Sun [Bx], how much along the east-west direction [By], and how much down-up (or north-south) [Bz]. Since the Earth’s field is mainly south-north, it is the Bz part that can easily connect.
The Galactic cosmic rays do not care about such tiny details and just slam into the Earth’s atmosphere with much ado. Very rarely, there will be Solar cosmic rays and those do depend on the details of the connection between the two fields.
Is it the solar wind that can go negative?
No.
In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles?
This is most likely an instrumental problem at Oulu.
Check Moscow tomorrow to see if they have it too. My prediction is that they will not. How is that for sticking my neck out?