Not much time for a full report, as it is very late for me, but I’ll pass this along from comments. Looks to be cycle 23 due to low latitude. – Anthony
Looks like a sunspot has appeared recently, as of Oct 9, 1600. Magnetogram also shows a spot. Is this the last spot that had blinked in and out?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/javagif/gifs_small/20081009_1600_mdi_mag.gif
H/t to Glenn
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The low latitude southern hemisphere SC23 event is now showing two very small sunspots. This event has now survived 18 hours. The event is moving with the solar rotation; and yes, I checked for burned out pixels, the spots are that small. Looks like SC23 is making a showing
Good comments all.
I know many may have read this article before me but Jan Janssens’ discussion here has a few gems.
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/MSCwebEng.pdf
on his Solaemon site under “Case for missing cycle”.
Even though Usoskin’s hypothesis is unsupported the breaking of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule points (if provisionally) to a Dalton, Maunder, et al., event.
Also the ‘Waldmeier effect’, which he calls one of the more reliable “rules”, points to a low, late maximum for 24.
http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305b.pdf
Here is a study done by the Federal Reserve Bakn on Geomagnetic storms and the stock market among other things. It is a serious work.
REPLY: yes I’m aware of it, in fact I’m writing a post on it, but waiting for some ancillary research to be located. – Anthony
The difficulty in identification of spots suggests someone needs to better define standards for spots. The past records and skills should also be classified so they can be compared to present technologies, but this seems like something which many examiners of past records should have already done so maybe I’m just not aware of where that record is stored.
Alan the Brit: The models are being used to generate predictions as tests of the models. With the present level of skill, their failure is hardly surprising, but successful prediction would be interesting.
Thanks, Roger. The kid is already thrilled at the number of hit she’s getting on her new site from someone else’s link. She’s using a pseudonym to avoid irritation at school; we and she have difficulty knowing how many others agree with her.
http://kidsagainstagw.com/
Gregori, Annals of Geophysics, 1/1/96:
Provides evidence supporting Joule heating as periodic driving mechanism of volcanism, and postulates link between magnetic field reversal events and planetary volcanism cycles:
http://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/1642/1/05%20gregori.pdf
Scott Covert (07:12:27) :
“Surely there are some people here that are bursting with information on this subject. I have looked for resources on the SOHO site but was dissapointed.”
Did you see the SOHO link to http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/image-description.html ? That answers several questions, but I’m sure leaves a few.
Quick notes for now – the EIT images are different UV wavelengths (EIT = Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope).
I think the magnetogram images are produced by looking at separation in the wavelengths of excited ions (e.g. things like the sodium spectral “lines”). In a strong magnetic field a line separates into two components, in direct proportion or so to the field strngth. I don’t know how the field direction is determined, but I’d expect that it shows up in the polarization of the light. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeeman_effect for more.
This is absolutely the finest entertainment I’ve seen in the religious world in a LONG time…there is almost NO difference between the repeated expectations of the Advent of the Messiah (and wow, the number of people who have stood on mountain tops, stocked up caves, committed suicide in these last 2 millenia)…and the expectations of “ADVENT” of Cycle 24. I find it disappointing, though, that someone couldn’t have chosen some multiple of 7 for this coming cycle, 7 being such an important number in prophecy.
Might I quote scripture: “And then if any man shall say to you: Lo, here is 24. Lo, 24 is here: do not believe. ”
ROTFLMAO (for which I do not repent)
I will attach rockets to a kayak and travel to the sun to raise awareness about the quiet sun. I might not get very far, but it will prove my point anyway:
CO2 on earth is has destroyed the delicate balance on the sun, by sending more IR back to the sun. We are near a tipping point. And there’s more quietness in the pipeline. And polar bears might summer blindness from the different sunlight being reflected from the shrinking icecaps(if they don’t drown first)…
Let’s get one thing straight.
Deep Thought’s answer was “42”
Deep Thought’s question was “what is 6 x 9?”
This answer works fine in base 13 math.
kevin: on Mars….
Mars is experiencing global warming,” Michael Malin of Malin Space Science Systems said last month at the Geological Society of America meeting in Denver. “And we don’t know why.”
Click here for story
Mars has warmed about 0.65 degrees in the last two decades. Probably Solar driven, with a dust feed back loop.
Click here for story
sorry, I should have checked the links. The first one is dead, the second to NBC is still good.
2 short Cycle 23 spots outweigh the 1 short Cycle 24 spot so far this month so, as of this minute, we are still in a continuing Cycle 23.
I noted before that August may have been the minimum but the continuation of cycle 23 spots outweighing cycle 24 spots means we still haven’t reached it.
Wyatt A (10:26:40) :
Let’s get one thing straight.
Deep Thought’s answer was “42″
Maybe it got it backwards, it should have been “24” 🙂
Mike Pickett (09:46:46) :
Might I quote scripture: “And then if any man shall say to you: Lo, here is 24. Lo, 24 is here: do not believe… ”
“…for behold, Solar Cycle 24 IS spread upon the sun, and men do not see it (because verily, the contrast is too low).”
Thomas Gospel (Dead Sea Scrolls)
Les Johnson:
Interesting article. Thanks for the link. It is, however, from Apr 2007 and what I’m really interested in is the data for the last decade up to this year.
What I’d like to check out is whether there is any response in the Mars climate that might correllate with the change in the Sun’s behavior. One suggested mechanism for Earth’s possible response is cloud condensation nucleii related to increased cosmic rays. If Mars is currently getting cooler, then that might bring this mechanism into question, but if Mar’s climate is getting warmer, or staying the same over the last few years, then that theory is still in play.
Either way, it might be instructive to compare the climate records of the two planets, together with the Solar cycle, since it might give us some clues as to where to look for climate change mechanisms.
I’m assuming that something like the UAH or RSS monthly anomaly figures might be available from the Mars Climate orbiter, and a look at those might be instructive.
Anthony,
Mechanix Illustrated ran an 8 part series of articles in 1944 (February to October) entitled “Cycles Predict the Future” by Donald G. Cooley. The article links historical events with sun spot cycles, citing 170 year and 510 year cycles as being of major importance and linking them to depressions, wars, famine, and practically everything else. Reference is made to the work of Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler of the University of Kansas.
The articles read about as you might expect, a mixture of talk about sunspot cycles and anecdotal evidence as “science”, but the ones I have are kind of amusing. An example quote: “When the cycle shifts from cold to warm, human energy is high; nations are built. When it shifts from warm to cold, nations crumble. International wars throughout history have occurred during warm periods, civil wars during cold. Now, in 1944, we are near the beginning of a cold period since it has been generally warm for about 45 years. Totalitarianism and dictators are typical of late-half warm periods…But when, as at present, the world moves into a cold period, democracy revives and dictators topple.”
Unfortunately, I only have a couple of the issues, but would be happy to scan and email portions of the articles to you if they might be of any use in the article you are preparing on sun spots and business cycles. Let me know where to send them, if you would like them.
Stu MIller
Thanks a bunch Ric.
That was quite helpfull. It inspired me to do a google search and I have found more reading than I can handle at the moment.
I found a really good link to more images like SOHO with earth based images and plenty of good links to observatories.
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest.html
Thanks again, I think I understand the LASCO images but it will probably take a while to be able to read them effectively. A solar mimima is probably not the best time to try to interpret the data, I will need to take some time to read old data.
The fact that past historic records of sunspots were limited since they were only observed from earth during blue sky days only should be taken as historical data with its limited precision. But to ignore those pas limitation and claim that the sun is more active toady than during the last deep minimum is to show one’s scientific incompetence.
Today’s “high tech” records are more sensitive and will show lots of things that were not possibly seen in past observations. Today’s records will also be compared to future observations that might show a completely different sun with new parameters and physical properties.
All this to say that we are in a deep visible minimum compared to all the past data. Little changes in a magnetogram does not remove this fact… visible minimum.
Concerning the volcanic activity… could solar activity change the gravitational constant of the sun? Can that be measured?
Wyatt A (10:26:40) :
Let’s get one thing straight.
Deep Thought’s answer was “42″
Deep Thought’s question was “what is 6 x 9?”
This answer works fine in base 13 math.
Deep Thought’s answer was 42. Deep Thought couldn’t explain the question – but he knew who could. A new computer needed to be build, the most complex computer ever concieved. It was a planet – Earth. To ensure the expirement worked correctly, the hyper-intelligent pan-dimensional beings existed on Earth as mice.
Anyway, the great expirement was corrupted when the Golgafrinchans arrived on Earth. Hence Arthur’s faulty race memory of 6 x 9. Finally, just before the computer was going to give the Great Answer to Life, The Universe and Everything, the Vogons, under the guise of constructing a hyperspace bypass and at the behest of Intergalactic Philosiphers Union (who had the most to lose if the answer was ever known – they would be out of a job).
John-X (11:46:57) :
Mike Pickett (09:46:46) :
Might I quote scripture: “And then if any man shall say to you: Lo, here is 24. Lo, 24 is here: do not believe… ”
“…for behold, Solar Cycle 24 IS spread upon the sun, and men do not see it (because verily, the contrast is too low).”
Thomas Gospel (Dead Sea Scrolls)
…and I command you to look upward into the sky and the truth shall be revealed unto you, but if you should look downwards unto the Earth and upon the devil GISS you shall surely be led astray…..
Pay no attention to the blinding nuclear inferno behind the curtain.
Nothing to see here.
Move along.
Are there infrared scans available or UV?
solarcycle24.com has pretty pictures in all kinds of formats.
Ray (13:46:12) :
There’s only one one gravitational constant recognized, and it applies to all mass. If you could move the mass at relativistic speeds, then its mass would increase, but the Sun did that it would leave the solar system in hours, so scratch that possibility off the list.
Even if the Sun could change its gravitational field by a measurable amount to affect tides on the Earth, the impact on the Earth’s orbit would leave us in a much smaller orbit where we would all fry soon after we realized that things were seriously wrong.
Neilo,
Douglas Adams was ahead of his time: When their ten-million-year experiment failed, the mice didn’t “do the science” (recreate the Earth and run it for ten million years), but instead decided to make up something plausible, do the 5-D lecture circuit, take the money, and run.
Sound familiar?