This just doesn’t seem to add up given what we’ve seen from anecdotal weather information and satellite data. For example the UAH global temperature for the lower troposphere shows that the temperature in 2008 doesn’t get anywhere close to this claim made by NOAA:
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was 0.85 degrees F (0.47 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C).
From my perspective as surveyor of the USHCN network, and knowing firsthand just how corrupted the data measuring system is, I have a lot of trouble believing this claim. The satellite data says otherwise.
Here is NOAA’s Press Release today:
Contact: John Leslie FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-2087, ext. 174 Sept. 16, 2008
NOAA: Global Summer Temperature Was Ninth Warmest
Tenth Warmest August Since Records Began
The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was the ninth warmest since records began in 1880, and this August was the tenth warmest, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Summer (June – August) Highlights
- The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was 0.85 degrees F (0.47 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C).
- Separately, the global land surface temperature for the summer was 1.12 degrees F (0.62 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).
- The global ocean surface temperature for summer ranked ninth warmest on record and was 0.74 degrees F (0.41 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C).
August Highlights
- The August 2008 combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record.
- The global land surface temperature for August was 0.88 degrees F (0.49 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).
- The global ocean surface temperature for August was 0.77 degrees F (0.43 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.4 degrees F (16.4 degrees C), which tied for seventh warmest August with 2001.
Other Highlights
- El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions continued in August, and are expected to last through the end of 2008, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
- Arctic sea ice extent at the end of August was at its second lowest extent on record according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice declined by a record rate in August, decreasing by 950,000 square miles (2.47 million square kilometers) between Aug. 1 and Sept. 3. The current extent is 800,000 square miles (2.08 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average.
- Tropical Storm Fay struck the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands between August 15 – 17, claiming 23 lives across the Caribbean. Hurricane Gustav affected the same countries August 24 – 31, claiming an estimated 95 lives in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Kammuri struck southern China on August 6, bringing torrential rains to Hong Kong. Rain from Kammuri caused 120 deaths in northern Vietnam. On Aug. 20, Typhoon Nuri made landfall in the Philippines and killed seven people.
- In southern India, heavy monsoon rains killed 99 people, while in northern India flash flooding claimed 74 lives and left about 50,000 people homeless. Varanasi, India received 11.5 inches (292.1 mm) of rain in just 24 hours. Torrential downpours claimed 27 lives in northwestern Pakistan during the first week of August. In Laos, heavy monsoon rains raised the Mekong River to its highest recorded level of 44.88 feet (13.68 m). Also in August, extensive flooding affected China, Japan, Mexico, and Great Britain.
- On Aug. 17, Eyre in Western Australia registered a low temperature of -7.2 degrees C (19 degrees F), setting the record for the all-time lowest temperature for that Australian state, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
- Severe storms over northern France on Aug. 4 spawned a tornado that killed three people in the town of Hautmont. Another tornado hit Mykanów, Poland, on Aug. 15, killing three and injuring 37.
- Moderate-to-severe drought impacted northern parts of China during August, according to the Beijing Climate Center. Below-average August rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia worsened drought conditions in those areas. Parts of southwest Australia experienced their lowest August rainfall since records began there in 1900.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
On the Web:
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
NCDC August 2008 analysis: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/aug/aug08.html
– 30 –
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[ snip adds nothing to this discussion, and is somewhat ad hom]
Sorry for the OT
I have lived in Kansas for 25 years and this is the coolest summer I can remember.
Had the family over for the 4th of July and we ate outside on the porch with a nice cool breeze.
I also noticed that we seemed to have a lot more cloud cover this year, during the day the clouds would block out the sun for long periods of time.
Now I will ask a stupid question, does cloud cover have anything to do with low sunspot activity?
Also is there a way to track the amount of clouds or cloud cover from year to year?
REPLY: Mark, have you ever heard of Svensmark’s Theory? This isn’t intended to embarrass you, just curious if up until this moment you’ve ever heard about it?. – Anthony
Do they live on the same planet as the rest of us or are they residing inside a computer simulation?
Bias affects almost all of us, the more complicated the issue the easier it is for bias to affect outcomes. Having said that I think the GISS data set is so corrupt it is meaningless to discuss change. That is my bias.
Another question, or observation, why does NOAA include casualty statistics from isolated weather events?
I grew up on a farm in Canada and I am well aware that weather is dangerous, is including these numbers simply to drive home a message of pending disaster at the hands of Climate Change?
I wonder how they’ll spin this winter?
Climate Heretic,
The is SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN DATA in the GHCN dataset which is the LST portion of the “raw” data. There is 5258 historical and current Canadian stations is the GHCN daily (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/). This is somehow compressed to 847 stations for the GHCN monthly dataset (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-monthly/index.php) , which is further manipulated to a gridded dataset. Then Smith and Reynolds get their manipulative paws on it (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html#sr05) So I do not know how much of Canadian data makes it in the final product.
Hi Anthony.
About Svensmarks cloud theory. I was wondering if cloud cover really has any effect on global temperatures, seeing that cloud has a cooling effect during sunlight hours – but a warming effect during the night. Don’t these cancel each other out – or is the 16/8 hour day/night big enough to make a difference.
REPLY: Day scales of effects don’t equate to long term climate. The bottom line is energy balance over time, if albedo is up globally, less energy input means a net cooling.- Anthony
Off topic
Hi everyone, I think I may have discovered a massive mistake in Greenhouse calculations that has led to the overestimation of CO2 forcing by 180 times.
The actual effect of doubling CO2 is less than 0.01 deg C!
What has gone wrong? simple, whoever calculated the greenhouse effect has confused “absorbance” with the absorption of energy (otherwise known as intensity, power or wattage). “Absorbance” is however the log of the change of intensity. You can check wiki under beer lambert law to verify.
This mistake has led people to believe that change in temperature stays the same for each doubling of CO2, however in reality the each doubling absorbs half or the remaining energy and will be half of the previous doubling.
Simple mistake, massive consequences.
Cheers
REPLY: Rob, while I welcome the news, I’m skeptical about it. It seems too simple. Please cite some additional work and references if you can. – Thanks, Anthony Watts
My Mom lives in Montana. All the old timers there are saying it is going to be a cold winter. They had a wet summer. My fiance is from Indiana. Her dad has said that all the farmers are expecting a very cold winter there. They have been cool all summer. I live in Austin and I have a feeling it is going to be cold here too! However, our summer was pretty hot, 3rd most 100 degree days, last time we had as many was 1929 or there about. It is a nice 84 degrees here today with a nice breeze!
I have been a lurker here for 6 months or so. Thanks for all you do Anthony!
HadCRUT nicely in line with GISTEMP for August! http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Warming_Look.html
Hadcrut has this as the 10th warmest summer
In the hundred billion dollar antrhropogenic global warming industry, its almost criminal that better ground instruments aren’t installed immediately. With the cost of energy and more importantly the cost of not getting more energy skyrocketing. Adding an accurate ground network would be tiny by comparison.
I wonder why the GISS guys aren’t pushing for better instruments.
I predict that Anthony is going to win this one eventually.
Mike Ramsey,
As one who takes and analyzes measurements for a living, my first questions for any data are when was the measuring device/system last calibrated, what is the error uncertainty, is the environment conducive to the instrument(s) used and are the instruments suitable for the task (at one time it was a 10x factor). What would be the answer to those with respect to the near surface station network?
Satellites can be calibrated and the error quantified even if at a later date. FYI, RSS uses climate models in their calibration procedure.
In industry if NOAA/GISS were to present their data to an auditor or customer, they’d be laughed out of existence. Being a bloated government bureaucracy, they are not answerable to anyone and thus can make statements of conformity that have no resemblance to reality.
Those in charge at NOAA/GISS obviously have no background in Quality Engineering. The bull-in-the-China shop philosophy in climate “science” is breath taking.
DR: Why should NOAA make any corrections or calibrate their instruments when the current temperatures being recorded by their instruments jibe with their global warming theory?
REPLY: Mark, have you ever heard of Svensmark’s Theory? This isn’t intended to embarrass you, just curious if up until this moment you’ve ever heard about it?. – Anthony
As an amateur astronomer I am very much aware that the last 2 years have been extraordinarily cloudy where I am. The weather has always been unstable here, but now the periods of clear weather get shorter and fewer. Around 2001 or so I would have at least a couple of clear nights per month, but now it seems even much less.
The low clouds keep hanging there every day. Maybe it is an illusion, but it seems to me the low clouds have increased. To myself I refer to them as ‘Svensmark clouds’…..
I am just an ordinairy member of the public working as a salesman in the packaging industry.
I knew little or nothing about the AGW argument but once I looked into it I soon realised they were hyping it up.
Climate models that show cirrus clouds bouncing radiation back to earth but failing to show low cloud bouncing it away or factoring in precipitation tell their own story of just how desperate the “warmers” are.
So now we are to beleive this is the 9th warmest summer on record.
In the UK peoiple with severe mental problems who may harm themselves, or others are “Sectioned”.
It is a polite way of saying they are mad..even if it is only temporary.
9th warmest…yeh sure….have the men in white coats arrived to take the NOAA scientists away?
I’ve posted similar on other sites, and also somewhat discussed this with Jeff Id…so here goes nothing…
Regardless of what Anthony (or Steve M, or any other individual for that matter) does to address the issues confronting climate change, none of them will have a lasting influence. This isn’t meant as an insult, but merely a factual observation.
For more than five years Steve M has systematically detailed the errors (whether they are innocent or nefarious is of no consequence) of Mann et al, and has shown that paleoclimate reconstruction as it resides today is of no value. Anthony, and all of the volunteers at SurfaceStations.org have done a yeoman’s effort in establishing a documentary record of the temperature stations in the US and all of their faults. And those of us that believe in the scientific method follow these (and others) with great interest.
BUT…in the news, in the classroom, and even in the learned journals, the prevailing “consensus” has nothing to do with science. Millions of children in school will learn that AGW is incontrovertible; that we have in place, a system of accurately measuring temperature; and that “brilliant” climate scientists were able to accurately reconstruct past climate to show that this recent warming is caused by CO2 emissions, and that it will permanently alter the earth’s climate.
No one will be there to show them how Steve M was able to effectively ivalidate the claims of the IPCC AR4. No one will be there to tell them how surface temperatures can be affected by the location of the measurement device, or that there is even such a thing as Urban Heat Island. No one will be there to explain how the scientific method is supposed to work, and that these “brilliant” climate scientists have usurped that method in favor of their own egos (or whatever explanation you would like to provide).
Those of us that believe in science, and believe that being a heretic (as Freeman Dyson prefers) is a worthy cause to defend (based on the evidence of course), will never succeed unless we can find a way to educate the impressionable (aka the youth)! And unfortunately, I do not see the UN, the EU, the US (by virtue of GISS, NOAA, NCAR et al), or any other group allowing an alternative viewpoint to be allowed.
This is the real discussion…how do we get the word out to a larger audience, that there is a true, scientific alternative that has nothing do with big oil, etc.??
I will now return to lurking!! 🙂
Anecdotally speaking, we had a lot more cloudy and cool days this spring and early summer in Western Washington than previous years, that’s for sure. On the cloudy days, it felt like late fall rather than May, June, or July.
@ur momisugly Anthony
I have heard the name mentioned here, if I remember correctly.
I am not familiar with his theory though, I guess I need to look that up.
This is the first year that this subject caught my eye concerning possible connections with the climate.
I was familiar with the sun spot terminology from when I worked with my dad some 30 years ago in his C.B. business being told that when the C.B. was nice and quiet the sunspot activity was low and when it was noisy the activity was high and that it ran in cycles of 10 – 11 years.
I wonder why the GISS guys aren’t pushing for better instruments.
They don’t have any. They just take adjusted NOAA HCN adjusted data and juggle it further.
Nahle, N. (2006). Temperature and Solar Radiation. Biology Cabinet. New Braunfels, TX. Obtained on (month) (day), (year) from http://biocab.org/Temperature_and_Solar_Radiation.html.
http://biocab.org/Temperature_and_Solar_Radiation.html
NASA scientists elaborated a prediction about the next solar cycle of 11 years based on the observation of the past tendencies and on the direct influence that the previous cycles have had on the intensity of the following cycle. The intensity of the solar activity has been progressively increasing on every cycle.
The implementation of the Kyoto’s Protocol will not solve the phenomenon of global warming; in the first place, because it does not depend absolutely of the human activities, but from natural factors. In the second place, because the concentration of Heat-Forcing gases in the atmosphere are not thermodynamically capable of store the density of heat registered in the last century. The variability in the tropospheric temperature on Earth depends on cosmic factors, like the increase in the intensity of Solar Radiation and of Intergalactic Cosmic Rays.
The graph gives also a clear explanation about the global warming observed on other planets like Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and some satellites of giant planets.
Leew,
I would beg to differ with your assessment on the effects of the efforts of Anthony et al. Anthony met with representatives of NOAA in order to improve the climate monitoring system. I have observed greater mainstream media coverage of skeptical scientists (Google Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post). The Museum of Nature in Ottawa, Canada’s capital city, had a very balanced approach to an Arctic climate exhibit. The reaction(desparation) of the RC crowd to Steve M. critiques show that he is having an affect. The level of traffic alone on WUWT and Ca shows that the word is getting out.
And finally, the weather itself is proving the AGW crowd wrong.
Anthony, I think you should let everyone know that today NSIDC announced that they are pretty sure that the arctic melt season has ended because arctic ice has seen 5 consecutive days of growth….
Will you do an article on it please and thankyou! 🙂
the statements they made regarding Australia just don’t add up
does this look like a country in a drought?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/recent.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&c=rain&p=cyear
they are predicting a 20mil ton wheat crop this year – the average is 16mil and the highest 25 mil.