This just doesn’t seem to add up given what we’ve seen from anecdotal weather information and satellite data. For example the UAH global temperature for the lower troposphere shows that the temperature in 2008 doesn’t get anywhere close to this claim made by NOAA:
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was 0.85 degrees F (0.47 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C).
From my perspective as surveyor of the USHCN network, and knowing firsthand just how corrupted the data measuring system is, I have a lot of trouble believing this claim. The satellite data says otherwise.
Here is NOAA’s Press Release today:
Contact: John Leslie FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-2087, ext. 174 Sept. 16, 2008
NOAA: Global Summer Temperature Was Ninth Warmest
Tenth Warmest August Since Records Began
The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was the ninth warmest since records began in 1880, and this August was the tenth warmest, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Summer (June – August) Highlights
- The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for summer 2008 was 0.85 degrees F (0.47 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C).
- Separately, the global land surface temperature for the summer was 1.12 degrees F (0.62 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).
- The global ocean surface temperature for summer ranked ninth warmest on record and was 0.74 degrees F (0.41 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C).
August Highlights
- The August 2008 combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record.
- The global land surface temperature for August was 0.88 degrees F (0.49 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 56.9 degrees F (13.8 degrees C).
- The global ocean surface temperature for August was 0.77 degrees F (0.43 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.4 degrees F (16.4 degrees C), which tied for seventh warmest August with 2001.
Other Highlights
- El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions continued in August, and are expected to last through the end of 2008, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
- Arctic sea ice extent at the end of August was at its second lowest extent on record according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice declined by a record rate in August, decreasing by 950,000 square miles (2.47 million square kilometers) between Aug. 1 and Sept. 3. The current extent is 800,000 square miles (2.08 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average.
- Tropical Storm Fay struck the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands between August 15 – 17, claiming 23 lives across the Caribbean. Hurricane Gustav affected the same countries August 24 – 31, claiming an estimated 95 lives in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Kammuri struck southern China on August 6, bringing torrential rains to Hong Kong. Rain from Kammuri caused 120 deaths in northern Vietnam. On Aug. 20, Typhoon Nuri made landfall in the Philippines and killed seven people.
- In southern India, heavy monsoon rains killed 99 people, while in northern India flash flooding claimed 74 lives and left about 50,000 people homeless. Varanasi, India received 11.5 inches (292.1 mm) of rain in just 24 hours. Torrential downpours claimed 27 lives in northwestern Pakistan during the first week of August. In Laos, heavy monsoon rains raised the Mekong River to its highest recorded level of 44.88 feet (13.68 m). Also in August, extensive flooding affected China, Japan, Mexico, and Great Britain.
- On Aug. 17, Eyre in Western Australia registered a low temperature of -7.2 degrees C (19 degrees F), setting the record for the all-time lowest temperature for that Australian state, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
- Severe storms over northern France on Aug. 4 spawned a tornado that killed three people in the town of Hautmont. Another tornado hit Mykanów, Poland, on Aug. 15, killing three and injuring 37.
- Moderate-to-severe drought impacted northern parts of China during August, according to the Beijing Climate Center. Below-average August rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia worsened drought conditions in those areas. Parts of southwest Australia experienced their lowest August rainfall since records began there in 1900.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
On the Web:
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
NCDC August 2008 analysis: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/aug/aug08.html
– 30 –
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NOAA maps shows the lower 48 close to average for the summer.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Last3mTDeptUS.png
Alaska had their third coldest summer on record.
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/518517.html
It was unusually cold in Antarctica, and NOAA probably has little coverage down there.
http://climate.uah.edu/
Antarctica has been officially disowned by the global warming community, because it is not behaving properly.
Crumbs! First comment!
Probably said before, but the lack of humility….
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
Whatever distortions may be taking place, and there may be many of them, time will reveal. It is difficult, though, to “give time time,” as a friend of mine used to say.
The farmers with low yields in the U.S. Upper Plains and Canadian Plains, ranchers in the Rockies, and plain folk in Alaska and Australia would probably all have a hard time believing how “warm” the past few months were where they live.
We were to have record lows in Austin overnight, but a blanket of clouds kept us warm. San Angelo, Texas, 220 clicks up the road, had a morning low of 47 degrees today, breaking the old record by 5 degrees. The upper atmosphere has been colder than usual all year and should allow winter cooling to get going in earnest forthwith.
This is not exactly on topic but here is the obituary of Ralph Plaisted
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/us/13plaisted.html
Mr. Plaisted was the first man with an undisputed claim to an overland journey to the North Pole. What I found interesting was this comment in the obit.
With a small crew that included the television journalist Charles Kuralt, Mr. Plaisted made his first attempt to reach the pole in 1967, but the trip had to be aborted far short of the goal, when unexpected warm weather in April caused the ice to begin breaking up. The next year, determined to avoid the same fate, he and a three-man crew — Gerald Pitzl, Jean-Luc Bombardier and Walter Pederson — started farther north, beginning their trek on March 7, at a speck on the Canadian map called Ward Hunt Island, 474 miles from the pole. The temperature was 60 below zero.
So in 1967 it was too “warm” to cross the ice to the North Pole in April! But that of course is before recorded history.
Clouds.
They keep the 12 hours of darkness warm and, thus, skew the averages.
When temperatures drop what happens? Precipitation. Clouds.
It has been raining all over the world recently. It is has been fairly cloudy all over the world recently.
And, of course, there is the legend to support.
(Latin, legenda, “things to be read”) is a narrative of human actions that are perceived both by teller and listeners to take place within human history and to possess certain qualities that give the tale verisimilitude. …
Have there been any studies to directly calibrate the various temperature standards? Casting doubt on GISS’ land surface temperature collection is not, IMHO, the most effective way to stop this nonsense. A definitive and scientifically accepted (i.e. peer reviewed and published) study that calibrates and reconciles the competing temperature standards (i.e. GISS, UAH, RSS, and HadCRUT3) is the most direct way forward. Until then, each side will be content to only consider its own data and will feel justified in ignoring the other guy’s data. If we can’t agree on our facts than how can we ever agree on our conclusions?
–Mike Ramsey
Check out this article on the Mohonk Mountain House weather station:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/science/earth/16moho.html
It shows that only 7 years (out of the last 18) were the warmest in 112 years. Granted it’s one station in upper NY, and this year isn’t in yet, but it shows the surprising discrepancies between politically motivated claims by NOAA and the NWS’s cooperative station referenced in the link. One thing I’m taking away from all the thermometers out there is that we just can’t accurately predict global temperature.
0.85F above the “20th century mean”.
So what??? Summer is 50F above the Winter mean… The world doesn’t end.
NOAA blended Land and SST is highly biased towards minimizing/eliminating cool spots. Comparing http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/aug/map-land-sfc-mntp-200808-pg.gif to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/aug/map-blended-mntp-200808-pg.gif there are many blue spots that are smaller or disappear altogether.
Actual August anomalies for Canada see: http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/maps/nl_td08_08e.pdf
Notice the negative anomaly in NW Canada that does not show up on the NOAA maps.
The NCDC/NOAA global temperature set is crap.
So hot that we must stop CO2 at any cost. Totally justifies a lack o U.S. energy policy other than save the planet. Do not worry about the people that cannot afford to get to work. Do not worry that they cannot pay their mortgages. Do not worry about the U.S. economy or the financial markets that are failing today. It is so hot NOAA has predicted and proved it.
From icecap.us:
NOAA August and Summer Numbers Again Not Jiving with Satellite Data
By Joseph D’Aleo
….
UPDATE: For the globe NOAA claimed 2008 was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record. The UAH MSU data showed the summer as the 11th coldest in the last 30 years with an anomaly of -0.024C (-0.04F). Again NOAA is an outlier with RSS and MSU. The global data lacks an adequate urban adjustment thanks to the intervention of Tom Peterson who uses a flawed paper to justify his claim that urbanization does not affect global trends. As we have shown in the pdf mentioned above it clearly does. In any case, don’t buy NOAA data. Tom Karl and Tom Peterson deserve to join their counterpart at NASA in retirement (if not in court). They have abused the public trust.
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it will. in 2015.
Thanks to you Anthony, we already know that NOAA is compromised, from your “Post mortem on the Mauna Loa CO2 data eruption” posted on August 6th. (http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/post-mortem-on-the-mauna-loa-co2-data-eruption/
Dr. Pieter Tans: “…. We are very much aware that in a time
when carbon dioxide emissions will cost a lot of money, there has to be
an objective and fully credible way to quantify emissions. Without
that, carbon markets cannot function efficiently, and policies cannot be
measured relative to their objectives. We think that the atmosphere
itself can provide objective quantification.”
If that quote doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about the questionable measurements and temperature claims, I don’t know what would.
Ice sheets could return to the US and the NOAA would still claim one of the warmest years on record. NOAA data calculation results have diverged from reality.
Ninth warmest in this century, certainly.
Let’s say NOAA is correct. The key here is “the 20th Century Mean”. We only have records of the 20th century to compare to, so we think these temps are typical. There’s abundant data from drillcores, historical records, etc., etc., showing otherwise. 100 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things, barely measurable at all compared to the geological record. Much ado about nothing.
The incredibly reliable temperature readings alluded to in the NYTimes article (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/us/13plaisted.html) about Mohonk House in New York State show an annual average temperature below freezing just after the turn of the last century, circa 1902. I sent an e-mail to the GISS meteorologist quoted in the piece, Ben Cook, asking about that particular nugget. We shall see what he says, if anything.
IT seems to me that a great potion Canadian temperature data is missing from GISS and NOAA data quite regularily while Russian heat waves are reported monthly.
Environment Canada has a very robust database, is there some kind of barrier between these agencies?
NOAA and Hansen have lost their minds. They can keep feeding the news media junk science but it will eventually bite them in the ass when everyone will finally realize the truth. As Abe Lincoln was supposed to have said “You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time.”
Sorry forgot to spell Check.
-Repost
IT seems to me that a great portion of the Canadian temperature record is missing from GISS and NOAA data quite regularily while Russian heat waves are reported monthly.
Environment Canada has a very robust database, is there some kind of barrier between these agencies?
I would have an easier time believing a government agency that I would believeing a weatherman unable to deal with the obvious!
REPLY: Perhaps so, what then is your opinion of of government agencies when they report data and intelligence of the Iraq War? Do you fully support the government view there? How are you holding up down there in Houston after the storm?- Anthony
Hi Anthony,
if I look at the GISS temperatures, this is not too far off. I get at an ‘anomaly’ of + 0.39 C for this summer, that ranks 2008 behind 1998(0.67), 2005(0.57), 2007(0.54), 2006(0.51), 2003(0.50), 2002(0.49), 2001(0.47), 1991(0.45) and 1995(0.41) in tenth place.
Of course these GISS numbers are subject to change, or may have already changed.
Looking at UAH data however, I find several further years with warmer summers than 2008 (’88,’89,’90,’94,…).
So striking is i) the difference between UAH and GISS and ii) that NOAA gets even higher anomalies than GISS.
Still even GISS has a year-to-year decrease of 0.15C.
Fred Nieuwenhuis (08:44:42) :
Also notice that NOAA has large red dots over regions of Canada that are shown to be in the gray normal area on the Canadian site.
A few other weird happenings…
1. Pacific ocean. Let’s look at these maps.
Aug 4
Aug 7
Aug 11
Aug 14
Aug 18
Aug 21
Aug 25
Aug 28
Where’s the southern arm of the horseshoe pattern of cold anomalies in the South Pacific that’s apparent in every SST anomaly chart except for the NOAA monthly data?? In NOAA’s monthly report that region is all positive anomalies.
2. Indian Ocean.
There was large upwelling off the Indonesian Coast of 2-3C negative anomalies. Where’s that representation in the NOAA map? Why is the entire basin positive anomaly when most of the month large areas of negative anomalies existed?
These are large regions where temperatures seem to be misrepresented.
My cynic’s opinion is let NOAA keep talking. Stretched rubber bands snap back. The ultimate consequences will be for NOAA to acknowledge past errors and there’s no way any attempt to correct past biases won’t lower false highs and thus averages.