GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) Surface Temperature Analysis (GISSTemp) released their monthly global temperature anomaly data for August 2008. Following is the monthly global ∆T from January to August 2008
Year J F M A M J J A
2007 85 61 59 64 55 53 53 56
2008 14 25 60 42 40 28 50 39
Here is a plot of the GISSTemp monthly anomaly since January 1979 (keeping in line with the time period displayed for UAH). I have added a simple 12-month moving average displayed in red.
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I don’t know if this September 5th record cold event is just for this station, or for all stations that report in to NCDC. It is probably for just the Pacific Northwest reporting area. Anyway, Meacham, Oregon (which is about 60 plus miles from Enterprise, Oregon), reported a record cold daily minimum event September 5th:
“These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
Record Event Report
000
SXUS76 KPDT 051813
RERPDT
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1115 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2008
…NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 5TH…
NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY…THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN
MEACHAM, OR 29 / 2005 28 1948 :SINCE MID”
To read that last line in the report:
Station name comma, State name space, previous record low, slash, previous record year space, new record low space, year data recording began space, colon since mid year.
Minnesota has been rainy and cool since the last weeks of August. We expect a few such days at this time but we now hope for one last day above 80 next week–the first in a month.
Steve Berry: Thanks for the heads up. However, the zonal mean plot indicates there’s no data south of 80S.
Manfred: I’ve never heard of any kind of polar transfer. It doesn’t mean there isn’t one; I’ve just never heard of one. Maybe what you’re seeing are the results of something else. In addition to seasonal differences, Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which dampens any changes there, where the Arctic is surrounded by North American and Eurasian land masses, which amplifies changes. This would create different response times, too.
Another difference, SSTs have been dropping in the Southern Ocean since the mid-80s, but the Arctic Ocean may or may not have started a decline a few years ago. It’s tough to tell with the Arctic right now.
Southern Ocean SSTs since 1978:
http://i33.tinypic.com/25yy8pg.jpg
Arctic Ocean SSTs since 1978:
http://i38.tinypic.com/2lwkmlf.jpg
Hope that helps.
Up here in Summit County, Colo. we didn’t have much of a summer. We had several large snowstorms in May and winter lingered until mid-June. It rained persistently all summer with almost daily thunderstorms. We had a dusting of snow on the highest peaks in July, and I woke up to snowfall at 11,000′ on 17 Aug. Today, 10 Sept., I hiked in fresh snow on Mt. Democrat/Lincoln/Bross. Above 14,000′ it was frigid! We’re already well into Autumn. Fall colors on the Aspens should peak in 2 weeks or sooner. I noticed Geese flying South last week and the week before but haven’t seen any since. I guess they’ve all fled the cold that’s steadily advancing from the North.
Neilo: I believe the spikes you’re referring to are the global temperature reactions to El Nino and La Nina events. What are they in synch with? That’s the big question. Lots of theories. Some think it’s variations in TSI, though the relationship I’ve seen in scientific papers is abstract. There’s a strange coincidence in which large El Nino events happen 5 to 10 years (I can’t recall the exact timing) after explosive volcanic eruptions, though I’ve only seen this coincidence discussed on blogs, not in any scientific papers. I recently ran across a paper that loosely correlated El Nino events with seismic and volcanic activity on the sea floor in the East Equatorial Pacific and with a few other factors that escape me now. Lots of theories on what drives El Ninos and La Ninas. No clear answers.
Whether El Ninos or La Ninas are dominant for a period of time also dictates the distribution of warm and cool SST anomalies in the North Pacific, culminating in an effect attributed most often to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. But since the PDO is considered an aftereffect of ENSO, it’s ultimately ENSO that dictates the distribution of heat. Sorry, if I’m getting carried away with details you may not be interested in. So I’ll bring this to an end.
What is for certain: during periods when the number and magnitude of El Nino events are higher than those of La Ninas, global temperatures rise. Not just the spikes, I’m referring to trends. The same thing holds true for the number and magnitude of La Ninas; except when they exceed the net effect of El Ninos, global temperatures decline. Climatologists like to reverse the cause and effect over long periods, saying that during periods of increasing global temperatures, El Ninos are more frequent, and vice versa during periods of decreasing global temperatures. But there is a significant difference between the two ways of presenting it, isn’t there?
Regards.
Kate (15:22:36)
‘Any guess how to how the GISS analysis will adjust for this?’
Yep. They will autoconnect it to Yuma, AZ.
SOI is going positive again: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
Another La Nina building?
Josh (17:24:18) :
When I glanced west today from the front range, it was not just my imagination in thinking those banks of clouds were as cold as they looked?
Has the Denver Water Board kept the Dam Road open as promised?
Back in the sixties, before I-70 was built, part of sentimental journey to California included a ride across Dillon Dam on the old Highway 6. When the road was reopened last summer, I made it a point to cross it for memory’s sake.
Those banks of clouds were definitely as cold as they looked. It was very winter-like on those peaks today.
The Dam Road is still open. I always prefer taking that route to I-70.
[…] the falling global temperatures in Watts Up With That? 07 September, […]
Manfred – the polar opposites – have you studied Svensmark’s The Chilling Stars?
His position is this: Current low solar magnetic flux allows the cosmic rays to come in that had been kept out 1970-2000 or so, this causes more cloud formation. Cloud albedo is the significant factor: brighter than land and oceans, it reflects solar energy out to space and causes temperature to fall over most of the planet. But it is less bright than icecaps, so Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet, and to a lesser extent the polar sea ice would behave in the opposite way to the rest of the planet, both in cooling and in warming periods overall.
Also beware the effects of underwater vulcanism, now showing up on the satellite SST pictures.
DaveH: Explanation of anomaly values, list of baseline periods and differences between them at:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#baselines
Does anyway have the real data?
thanks,
Steve
It is colder in 2008, that is obvious.
However this graph doesn’t disprove AGW – if we were in 1993 or in 2000 it would just look the same it looks like now…but after those 1-2 year minima…global warming continued 🙁
Not up to us to disprove AGW. It’s up to AGW proponents to prove it’s happening. Just because it may be getting warmer isn’t proof. All indications are that we’re returning to pre-LIA temps. They need to prove that the surface stations aren’t plagued with biases, that anyone can accurately predict weather or climate beyond 3 days, and that the whole thing isn’t driven by emotion rather than science.
Does anyway have the real data?
Go with the Satellite data. UAH and RSS. That’s your best bet.
It’s lower troposphere rather than surface data, and there remain some small adjustment questions, but at least they are evenly gridded and weighted, and are not subject to the godawful surface station issues.
CRN surface data for the US may turn out to be okay, but we have to wait until the network is activated. We’ll see.
Thank you Paul Clark. Exactly what I was looking for.
There is a line that can be drawn..without statsistical analysis…just eyeballing, that is lower, earlier to the left (ca. 1979), and higher, later to the right (ca. 2008.5); No?
John D.
John, my thoughts exactly.
Hello Jeff Alberts,
It is true AGW isn’t proven.
However, they are not always bad at predicting climate…
see for example Landscheidt:
http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm
http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/new-enso.htm
Is there a good summary of the predictors, that say
we are returning to pre-LIA temps ?
It is also true surface stations are biased for example
by urban head island effects etc.
But I compared several climate stations in Europe,
where I live and the differences between urban and
non-urban stations are only moderate.
Hohenpeissenberg, a station on a small mountain
in south Germany for instance it’s far from cities
up to today, and non-biased
(as far as I could examine the surroundings of the station)
and they record temperatures there since 1781 ! So for
quite some time.
I plotted the exponential moving average of a monthly updated
annual average temperature…and at least in Europe:
it really heats up since 1987.
http://stormmann.piranho.de/hohen1781.jpg
I hope your predictors are right and it cools soon..I would be happy.
[REPLY – Fixed according to your instructions ~ Evan]
Went fishing this morning. The water temp is extremely cold! Much colder than last month. The mountain source temps must really be dropping to produce this degree change! Haven’t seen water this cold in September for quite some time. Years even. However, I did catch my trout limit this morning so I am heading out again this afternoon after putting up a cord of wood. It is a beautiful clear autumn day and I intend to enjoy it. Why anyone would want to live in another state is beyond me. Oregon is just about perfect. However, fanny is still freezing, especially after this morning’s trek across the river to one of my favorite fishing holes. The water wasn’t too deep but it was swift enough to splash up and hit the ol’ behind! Well worth the cold however. There were two very nice size fish waiting for me.
Thin ozone continues over the northwest part of the US:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=o3_us
It would seem that ozone is definitely not well mixed in the upper atmosphere. Sure can’t wait for that website related to CO2. Any word on when that will be ready for the public?
Just to say, the August in the UK was the coldest I could recall in my 42 years. We even had the heating on in the summer, that has never happened before.
There were only a couple of days that were nice, not one scorcher, and we always tend to get some nice days in summer. Not this year.
But then I go to the UK Met office website, and they tell me that this August was warmer than average.
Seeing this has kind of made me lose all faith in data being recorded everywhere.