UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for August 2008 was published today and has moved a bit below the zero anomaly line, with a value of -0.010°C, down from 0.048°C in July 2008
The global UAH ∆T from July to August 2008 was .049°C and is 0.287°C cooler than in August 2007. It becomes the fourth time the UAH data has dipped below the zero anomaly line in 2008
UAH
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.020
2008 3 0.094
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.180
2008 6 -0.114
2008 7 0.048
2008 8 -0.010
Click for a larger image
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
To Magnus,
Least squares regression is not always the best way to determine a long-term trendline. What does least squares tell you about the trendline of this chart.
http://globalwarmingquestions.googlepages.com/cal1.jpg/cal1-full;init:.jpg
What is the least squares regression for a half-circle?
Just to add to my last comment…
UAH 1999 through August (average): +.042
UAH 2008 through August (average): -.023
I’ve just had a look at the data and some of the figures are slightly different than yours. Is this because I’m looking at the wrong data or has the data changed? Your figures are in brackets.
2008 1 -0.046 (-0.046)
2008 2 0.020 ( 0.020)
2008 3 0.089 ( 0.094)***
2008 4 0.015 ( 0.015)
2008 5 -0.183 (-0.180)***
2008 6 -0.114 (-0.114)
2008 7 0.047 ( 0.048)***
2008 8 -0.010 (-0.010)
The Hadley Sea Surface Temperatures anomaly for August is 0.369. This is higher than July (0.354) and also the first time for a year that the sea temperature was higher than the equivalent month a year before (0.282).
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadsst2gl.txt
Perhaps someone can tell me what caused the medieval warming, what ended it, what caused the Little ice age and what ended that.
The only correlation I can find is linked to sun spots.
http://www.uab.es/servlet/Satellite?cid=1096481466574&pagename=UABDivulga%2FPage%2FTemplatePageDetallArticleInvestigar¶m1=1096481770302
I thought I’d bake some cherry pie for you.
Using the monthly anomalies:
For the colders the trend from May 1997 is -0.078 per century.
For the warmers the trend from November 1991 is 2.268 per century.
Using August anomalies only:
For the colders the trend from 1995 is -0.4 per century
For the warmers the trend from 1984 is 1.440 per century
Of course this all depends on me correctly using the LINEST directive in OpenOffice.
If your were a gambling
manperson and, starting in August 1979, bet $1 every year that the following August would be hotter than the current one then you would be up by $3.Phil (13:59:51) wrote: “Isn’t this La Nina and wasn’t it predicted?”
Phil, the past LaNina is for all intents over and no, it was never predicted. However it is my understanding cetain [snip] (a name claimed by the anthropogenics in certain areas) are now claiming that the now “deceased” LaNina never ended and may be gaining momentum.
Reply: Derogatory terms for AGW promoters as well as skeptics are not allowed ~ charles the moderator.
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
McGrats,
I agree that the Nina went neutral in April time frame. There are some in the weather community that did predict the Nina six months in advance, but I won’t quibble with you on that. It is also making a comeback at the subsurface level, and it will be apparent to all that La Nina has returned in the October timeframe.
Tucker
There seems to be a long term shift from La Nina to El Nino:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
If people want to blame ENSO for cooling, why not blame ENSO (instead of AGW) for warming over the past several decades? Just asking, and open to enlightenment.
Yep, I’ve been watching NOAA’s weekly ENSO updates. and from the best I can tell they are predicting a weak la nina to reform (on their maps at least), but in their print they say that ENSO neutral condition are supposed to persist through the fall, so who knows?
NOAA is also saying they predict the lower 48 to be average or slightly about average this fall, but the darned thing is that NOAA adds a warming trend bias into their reports, where they used to offer both w/ Global Warming and w/o global warming. I’m betting that it will be cooler than NOAA expects, and if this general cooling trend continues into February or March, then we are looking at a cold winter. This might be good news, because it might stall political action during the new president’s first 100 days. With luck it will persist for another 2-3 years until we can elect a new congress.
“bsneath (13:22:02) : The next 12 – 24 months are the key. If temps bounce back up, then the recent drop may be no different than the 1999 period. If temps continue to fall, than I will become a full fledged skeptic.”
Horrors! Someone who is leting actual data affect their opinion! Where will this lead?
Certainly looks like the beginnings of a La Nina to me. I have no idea why the El Nino of 98 is counted as evidence of AGW and the Mt Pinatubo depression of temps in 91-93, which artificially enhances the upward curve of temps are not
adjusted out’ of the temperature readings.
Here’s todays ocean SST — note the huge upwelling of cooler water off almost the entire pacific NW, Western Canada area – some temps in the purple ( -3C below normal) That and look at the temps in the Carib.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.8.2008.gif
Compare it to just 4 days ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.4.2008.gif
or two weeks ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.25.2008.gif
Rob:
“Perhaps someone can tell me what caused the medieval warming, what ended it, what caused the Little ice age and what ended that.”
Shhh! Don’t mention the MWP or LIA. AGW’s try to pretend they don’t exist because it implies that the climate has natural variability. Look at the (in)famous hockey stick graph to see how they treat the data.
La Nina is back… deal with it. The predominance of La Ninas over the next few decades does not invalidate global cooling. Otherwise, the predominance of El Ninos over the past 3 decades should invalidate global warming. You can’t have it both ways, but I’m sure the warm-mongers will try.
Check the image http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/comp.gif and the discussion at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/#discussion and you’ll see that after a couple of months of almost dead zero, the index has returned to a weak La Nina. The discussion points out that the last time such a situation occured, i.e. 1974, the result was a la Nina lasting into 1976. A similar scenario now would have a la Nina lasting into 2010. Ouch. Another point to remember is that 1976 was the PDO-flip to positive, which may have prematurely truncated that La Nina. Assuming that the current PDO doesn’t flip back to positive in 2010, we may now be at the beginning of “The Mother fo all La Ninas”.
Note also the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) at http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/ which indicates a return to La Nina. Negative numbers are El Nino, and positive numbers are La Nina. The 30 and 90 day numbers are SOI, expressed in standard deviations. The raw daily numbers have to be run through a formula to produce standard deviations. See http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/index.html for more details. But as a quick rule of thumb, higher daily raw SOI numbers mean a stronger La Nina.
Looking at the current ENSO and SOI numbers, let’s just say that if you liked the winter of 2007/2008 you’ll love the winter of 2008/2009. If you *DIDN’T* like it… well… too bad.
Bill, looks like a classic cool phase PDO to me. It followed this years El Nina,
and is likely partly to blame for the mild summer in Alaska. You may be right about another El Nina.
If this cool PDO cycle sticks and lasts a few years, it’s liable to put the Kaibash
on the AGWers for sure.
Look at the trend, warming to the 40s, cooling to the 70s, then warming to the beginning of this century.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Pdoindex_1900-2006.gif
[…] this (simple) script hanging around for about a month now, so I thought I’d use it. With UAH releasing their August temperature datum, and temperatures plunging in 2008 it seemed like a good opportunity to look at what the monthly […]
ENSO is showing a negative for JJA. ( at -.4 it is just below the -.5 needed to label it La Nina ) It is several degrees cooler in the eastern equatorial pacific than it is in the west. Cool water is moving west which means the El Nino/La Nina cycling is still in the negative/cooling phase just not enough to call it La Nina.
If the slow Northern movement of cooler water off the coast of South America continues we may see an extention of near La Nina conditions into the NH winter.
From the NOAA animation, one cannot tell whether a strong El Nino is developing or whether La Nina is coming back.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/anom_anim.html
We may have to wait for around Christmas which is when El Ninos and La Ninas really solidify themselves.
But if you speed up the animation (as fast as your computer can handle), you can see that the trade winds have strengthened again and strong trade winds are the real driver of La Ninas (while weak trade winds allow El Ninos to develop). It almost appears that the Atlantic is developing its own La Nina (for the first time) as well.
[…] this (simple) script hanging around for about a month now, so I thought I’d use it. With UAH releasing their August temperature datum, and temperatures plunging in 2008 […]
Bill you’re right:
up date 09/08/2008 (NOAA)………..NEUTRAL…….LA NADA…..LA NOTHING
Niño 4………. -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4……. -0.1ºC
Niño 3…………0.4ºC
Niño1+2…….. 0.7ºC
SOI: + 14,9
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3
The snow is coming back. Western China and north eastern Siberia. More so than last year.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
Perhaps unremarkable. But, worth watching.
And yet September has been rather nice. My tomatoes are finally ripening.
McGrats (16:33:52) :
“Phil (13:59:51) wrote: “Isn’t this La Nina and wasn’t it predicted?”
Phil, the past LaNina is for all intents over and no, it was never predicted.”
I think you are misunderstanding what Phil meant about ‘predicted’. If he was meaning the cooling effect for this year then, yes, it was predicted http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm
It seems that many posters use the ‘lag effect’ in other posts, but not here….wonder why?
McGrats (16:33:52) :
“However it is my understanding cetain [snip] (a name claimed by the anthropogenics in certain areas) are now claiming that the now “deceased” LaNina never ended and may be gaining momentum. ”
Er….it went to a neutral phase and is now re awakening, hardly deceased, more of a summer snooze! For deceased you probably should read this…..
http://www.davidpbrown.co.uk/jokes/monty-python-parrot.html
Reply: Derogatory terms for AGW promoters as well as skeptics are not allowed ~ charles the moderator.
To all of the posters from the UK (where I hail from though a long time ago). The sun is now at over 56 degrees above the horizon here in Brisbane at noon now AND is shining every day! Yippee!