Even though little change has been seen, there is some interesting news in the August RSS numbers. We are still cooler than one year ago, and the 12 month trend continues to drop.
The RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for August 2008 was published today and has remained essentially unchanged, with a value of 0.146°C for a miniscule change (∆T) of -0.001°C globally from July 2008.
RSS
2008 1 -0.070
2008 2 -0.002
2008 3 0.079
2008 4 0.080
2008 5 -0.083
2008 6 0.035
2008 7 0.147
2008 8 0.146
The August 2008 number is 0.221°C lower than in August of 2007 which was 0.367°C
Click for a larger image
The RSS data is here (RSS Data Version 3.1)
While is was going to do my own analysis of the numbers, Walter Dnes did an excellent job of summarizing it all in comments on another thread, so I’ll give him the honor:
This brings down the 12-month running mean to +0.086, which is very slightly lower than the +0.091 12-month running mean to the end of November 1987. That’s almost 21 years ago.
What I’m really waiting for is Hadley and GISS 12-month means to drop below their 1995 values. Hadley might make it in the next couple of months. GISS by year end. Once we get annual means matching temperatures on the other side of 1998, global cooling will be undeniable.
We do indeed live in interesting times.
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Frank Lansner (12:29:16) :
“Fact is, the temperatures in the ocean down to 2 km depths has been measured to be slightly falling since 2002.”
Hi Frank,
could you supply references to this? I think SST are influenced too much by cloud cover and surface winds to be reliable, the subsurface temps should be a much better indicator.
On Mann, it’s been great fun watching this
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/05.24.jpg
morph to this
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/Manns-hockey-stick.gif
to this
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/09/progress-in-millennial-reconstructions
Looking forward to the next installment.
re: counters
Data that is “counter” to the underlying theory, rejects the theory, not the data. Whether there is a “counter” theory or not is “counter” to the scientific method.
Those of us that have been through a few climate cycles are not going to fall for your “watermelon” theories. When I was born it was warm. Then it got cold. Then it got warm again. Now it is getting cold.
If you want respect, break out the man-made portion of that cycle, and show how much negative impact it has made. Until then you are just another phophet on the street corner, with a sign that says: ” The end is near”.
REPLY: Fayette is in what state? – Anthony
michigan
sorry LOL
Alex (13:51:39) :
As a climate realist I do see solar variability as an important factor…but think about it… the solar cycle 1964-1977 was longer than the current one and nothing major happened right?? No ice age happened…
Your facts have been adjusted. Cycle 23 is 12 years so far, could be longer. You have to go 100+ years back to find a longer cycle.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/solar_cycle_length.png
Carsten Arnholm
Thanks…interesting data piece,now problem is,,, which one is the most accurate one…
Alex, did you notice that around 1977 the global temperatures had sunk so much that leading scientists warned about ice age?
(Ok, after the 1980´ies all these graphs of global temperature changed back so the giss graph today mostly has the 1960´ies – 1970´ies looking like a plateau rather than a great fall in temperature, but it was not for nothing the scientists back then cried “ice age”.)
In the last 400 years whenever we have low solar activity / low sunspot numbers / Long sun circles, we see falls or even dramatic falls in temperature.
How responsible is it to say “Its probably not gonna happend this time” ?
UAH data for August is out: -.01C. Very chilly southern hemisphere.
http://climate.uah.edu/august2008.htm
Alex (11:51:16) :
How about
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/maxmin.new
Wordpress does awful things that even monospace fonts can’t fix, so I
recommend the FTP URL.
For the following, just us column 1 (cycle), column 2 (start date), and the last column (cycle length). I guess cycle 23 is up to 12.3 years or so.
MINIMA AND MAXIMA OF SUNSPOT NUMBER CYCLES
===============================================================================
Sunspot Year Smallest Year Largest Rise Fall Cycle
Cycle of Smoothed of Smoothed to Max to Min Length
Number Min* Monthly Mean** Max* Monthly Mean** (Yrs) (Yrs) (Yrs)
——————————————————————————-
– 1610.8 — 1615.5 — 4.7 3.5 8.2
– 1619.0 — 1626.0 — 7.0 8.0 15.0
– 1634.0 — 1639.5 — 5.5 5.5 11.0
– 1645.0 — 1649.0 — 4.0 6.0 10.0
– 1655.0 — 1660.0 — 5.0 6.0 11.0
– 1666.0 — 1675.0 — 9.0 4.5 13.5
– 1679.5 — 1685.0 — 5.5 4.5 10.0
– 1689.5 — 1693.0 — 3.5 5.0 8.5
– 1698.0 — 1705.5 — 7.5 6.5 14.0
– 1712.0 — 1718.2 — 6.2 5.3 11.5
– 1723.5 — 1727.5 — 4.0 6.5 10.5
– 1734.0 — 1738.7 — 4.7 6.3 11.0
– 1745.0 — 1750.3 92.6 5.3 4.9 10.2
1 1755.2 8.4 1761.5 86.5 6.3 5.0 11.3
2 1766.5 11.2 1769.7 115.8 3.2 5.8 9.0
3 1775.5 7.2 1778.4 158.5 2.9 6.3 9.2
4 1784.7 9.5 1788.1 141.2 3.4 10.2 13.6
5 1798.3 3.2 1805.2 49.2 6.9 5.4 12.3
6 1810.6 0.0 1816.4 48.7 5.8 6.9 12.7
7 1823.3 0.1 1829.9 71.7 6.6 4.0 10.6
8 1833.9 7.3 1837.2 146.9 3.3 6.3 9.6
9 1843.5 10.5 1848.1 131.6 4.6 7.9 12.5
10 1856.0 3.2 1860.1 97.9 4.1 7.1 11.2
11 1867.2 5.2 1870.6 140.5 3.4 8.3 11.7
12 1878.9 2.2 1883.9 74.6 5.0 5.7 10.7
13 1889.6 5.0 1894.1 87.9 4.5 7.6 12.1
14 1901.7 2.6 1907.0 64.2 5.3 6.6 11.9
15 1913.6 1.5 1917.6 105.4 4.0 6.0 10.0
16 1923.6 5.6 1928.4 78.1 4.8 5.4 10.2
17 1933.8 3.4 1937.4 119.2 3.6 6.8 10.4
18 1944.2 7.7 1947.5 151.8 3.3 6.8 10.1
19 1954.3 3.4 1957.9 201.3 3.6 7.0 10.6
20 1964.9 9.6 1968.9 110.6 4.0 7.6 11.6
21 1976.5 12.2 1979.9 164.5 3.4 6.9 10.3
22 1986.8 12.3 1989.6 158.5 2.8 6.8 9.7
23 1996.4*** 8.0 2000.3*** 120.8 4.0
——————————————————————————-
Mean Cycle Values: 6.1 113.2 4.7 6.3 11.0
——————————————————————————-
*When observations permit, a date selected as either a cycle minimum or maxi-
mum is based in part on an average of the times extremes are reached in the
monthly mean sunspot number, in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number, and
in the monthly mean number of spot groups alone. Two more measures are used
at time of sunspot minimum: the number of spotless days and the frequency of
occurrence of “old” and “new” cycle spot groups.
**The smoothed monthly mean sunspot number is defined here as the arithmetic
average of two sequential 12-month running means of monthly mean numbers.
***May 1996 marks the mathematical minimum of Cycle 23. October 1996 marks the
consensus minimum determined by an international group of solar physicists.
April 2000 marks the mathematical maximum of Cycle 23. However, several
other solar indices (e.g., 10.7 cm solar radio flux) recorded a higher
secondary maximum in late 2001.
Here’s some numbers for Jan-Aug for the past 30yrs using RSS global anomalies averaged for these months.Also ENSO during these months.
1979 -0.219* neutral
1980 +0.050 neutral
1981 +0.031* neutral
1982 -0.202* neutral to strong El Nino
1983 +0.059 very strong El Nino to neutral
1984 -0.207* neutral
1985 -0.309* moderate to weak La Nina
1986 -0.165* neutral to weak El Nino
1987 +0.087 moderate to strong El Nino
1988 +0.134 weak El Nino to moderate La Nina
1989 -0.174* strong La Nina to neutral
1990 +0.014* neutral
1991 +0.189 neutral to moderate El Nino
1992 -0.147* strong El Nino to neutral
1993 -0.134* neutral
1994 +0.037* neutral to weak El Nino
1995 +0.191 moderate El Nino to weak La Nina
1996 +0.050 weak La Nina to neutral
1997 +0.044 neutral to very strong El Nino
1998 +0.671 very strong El Nino to mod La Nina
1999 +0.096 moderate La Nina
2000 +0.071 strong La Nina to neutral
2001 +0.224 weak La Nina to neutral
2002 +0.380 neutral to moderate El Nino
2003 +0.321 moderate El Nino to neutral
2004 +0.258 neutral to weak El Nino
2005 +0.389 weak El Nino to neutral
2006 +0.278 neutral to weak El Nino
2007 +0.364 weak El Nino to weak La Nina
2008 +0.042 moderate La Nina to neutral
You have to go back to 1997 to get a similiar average anomaly. Astericks indicate colder years(Jan-Aug) than this one.
Here’s a nice graph of eruptions and their SO2 emissions from 1979-2003.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/TOMS_SO2_time_nov03.png/800px-TOMS_SO2_time_nov03.png
Mary Hinge (01:25:25) :
Frank Lansner (12:29:16) :
“Fact is, the temperatures in the ocean down to 2 km depths has been measured to be slightly falling since 2002.”
I believe Frank was refering to Argo probes not SST.
I’m looking for the HadCRUT dataset which (like the whole CRU website) is inaccessible for hours now. Let I guess what they are doing… Maybe it’s high time to make some “corrections” or “adjustments”?
Frank:
Yes I agree but perhaps it is being a little over-exaggerated when it is said that we will enter the next Maunder minimum based on current events? Back in the 70s they were convinced of an impending ice age, and yes temps did drop but not to the conditions one would see in a maunder/dalton/sporer type minimum. It is safe to say that we will experience below normal temps,,, but a 2 degree C drop worldwide??
Ric:
It is quite intriguing that there is no 100% consensus on when SC 23 started…that really does pose a problem, this reminds me of the debate over wether “tiny tim” spots should be counted.
In South Africa we here are currently experiencing raging bush fires, strong winds and temperature swings…even port towns are getting damaged by storm surges washing onto roads…obviously the media attributes this to AGW…which is really pathetic since temps have generally been colder.
I would definately say that winter 2008 was definately cold but also wet, not like our typical dry winters…
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What about the hockey stick? Why did it spike in just the last 40 years or so?