Meier of NSIDC on melt: "it’s not going to make it to the North Pole"

Current image from Terra Satellite, rotated 90 degrees to improve view, plus annotation and world view inset added by Anthony

Source image is available here at the NASA Terra website

North Pole to remain frozen

Originally published 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008

Updated 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008

Santa can rest easy.

It’s looking like the ice at the North Pole won’t melt to water next month, as had been feared. It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.

“It’s quite unlikely at this point,” Walt Meier a research scientist at the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, said today.

The ice in the Arctic Ocean is at near historic lows, and breaks records every couple of years due to human-caused global warming, the scientists at NSIDC say.

This spring, it was looking like the ice might retreat so far that the North Pole itself would be ice-free for at least a day in September – the height of the ice-melt season.

The chances were great enough that the scientists at NSIDC were laying almost even odds on it in an office pool.

But while global warming is playing an important role, seasonal variability does, too. And this summer turned out to be a little cooler than last summer, when the record for ice retreat was set, Meier said.

“We only have about two or three weeks more of ice melt, and it’s not going to make it to the North Pole,” Meier said.

Read the rest of the article here

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Ed Scott

Maybe The North Polar Ice Cap will not melt this year, but the high priest of global destruction said in his speech at the DNC Convention: “Oil company profits have soared to record levels, gasoline prices have gone through the roof and we are more dependent than ever on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels. Many scientists predict that the entire North Polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months in the first term of the next President. Sea levels are rising, fires are raging, storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.”
Good and bad news related to the melting of the North Polar Ice Cap. The good news is that petroleum exploration and drilling will be facilitated. The bad news is the potential damage to Santa’s Toys for Tots factory.
Question: Who uses more “dirty and dangerous fossil fuel” than the high Priest?

Matt Lague

So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one? Matty, Perth

Leon Brozyna

Now that I quite cropping the image of the NSIDC daily graph of the melt progress, I don’t get so much jiggling when I scroll through the images since mid-month. That melt line looks like it’s getting very close to last year’s melt. If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage and not the myth of warm air {even Meier described the air this year as cooler than last}.

Steve Sadlov

First time in a thousand years? I think not.

RobJM

Has anyone thought THC/global conveyor/gulf stream could be responsible for climate change. I should work like a radiator/engine system. the equator has maximum heat and insulation, so the faster the energy flows to the high latitudes the more cooler the system runs. The radiator gets hotter though. It would explain why the arctic ice melted while global temps started cooling. It could also explain la nina/el nino and ice ages. The heat transfer would also enable those massive glacial ice sheet to form in a cool and dry ice age environment while making south east europe inhabitable for all those neanderthals!

Steven Hill

“The ice in the Arctic Ocean is at near historic lows, and breaks records every couple of years due to human-caused global warming, the scientists at NSIDC say.”
WOW, what power us humans have to destroy the entire world! Kaboom! And to destroy it with the same gas that we exhale…..I guess it’s all a path of evolution. Too much exhaling and on with the next spices. What a joke.

Bill in Vigo

Off topic here but at 7:43 pm central daylight time the Weather Chanel announced that one of their scientist had a study on going that discovered the human finger print of AGW on the number and strength of the tropical storms this year due to the excessive heat in the oceans due to warming. Here we go again. Don’t ya love it when a plan hatches. I wonder at the audacity of these people and their claims.
Bill Derryberry

AnyMouse

the first time in thousands of years

Oh, so it was warmer only some thousands of years ago? And we survived?

FatBigot

I’m a bit sketchy on geography. Is that north pole place anywhere near Boston Massachusetts? My corpulent frame will be conveyed to Heathrow airport tomorrow for onward transmission to Boston and then Mystic & Noank Connecticut. Assuming that is the same general area as the north pole, please arrange for the ice to take a small rest, ten days should do it (assuming I’m allowed into the country now that I have been “outed” as a sceptic). Thank you.

Katherine

It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.
You mean like this?
HMS Superb, USS Billfish, and USS Sea Devil in a North Pole rendezvous in 1987
Towards the end of the article, Meier states:
“To recover to the ice levels of the 1980s would require many years in a row of cool conditions, and that isn’t going to happened under global warming conditions.”
Yeah, right. That picture was from 1987. It looks like there’s a lot more ice now than then.

H

“We only have about two or three weeks more of ice melt, and it’s not going to make it to the North Pole,” Meier said.
Do I detect a degree of regret or sadness that the melt wouldn’t go as far as they had predicted/hoped/”feared”?

Robert Austin

Don’t you love how they claim historic lows and breaking records but neglect to mention that their history and records only go back to 1979, only a period of about 30 years. The last time the PDO flipped (other than the recent flip) was in 1977, a few years before the beginning of official recorded history. They claim the Northwest Passage will soon be open to shipping for the first time in “history”. I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.

evanjones

(assuming I’m allowed into the country now that I have been “outed” as a sceptic).
Probably a higher percent in the US than where you come from . . .
Although i think it has less to do with scientific knowledge and more nonacceptance of gas prices.

statePoet1775

evanjones, are you even Evan Jones?

old construction worker

‘the first time in thousands of years’ Sorry, I didn’t get the memo, what did man do 1000 years to cause AGW ?

John Nicklin

At least we’ve gone from “never before in human history” to “first time in thousands of years.”

David Gladstone

Yes, Bill in Vigo, I saw that, it was outrageous. They showed some kind of graph that supposedly proved Global warming was responsible for snow in China and floods in India and the long track of Fay over Florida. The idiot took a balloon and squeezed it to show how high pressure was made stationary by warming! The weather channel is really a joke.

Lucy

So the North Pole was thawed in 1987, the Northwest passage open in 1944, and there are indeed plenty of words for “robin” in the Inuit languages.
Is anybody keeping count or a file of these, um, lies by the media? They seem to be piling up faster than and iceberg melting into the Titantic.

Jeff Alberts

“Oil company profits have soared to record levels, gasoline prices have gone through the roof and we are more dependent than ever on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels. Many scientists predict that the entire North Polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months in the first term of the next President. Sea levels are rising, fires are raging, storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.”

We can only hope. Then we won’t have to hear any more of this complete garbage.

Jeff Alberts

Now that I quite cropping the image of the NSIDC daily graph of the melt progress, I don’t get so much jiggling when I scroll through the images since mid-month. That melt line looks like it’s getting very close to last year’s melt. If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage and not the myth of warm air {even Meier described the air this year as cooler than last}.

So many polar bears must have died already this year. The Arctic ocean must simply be littered with their corpses. No? Really? None at all? Dammit! I’ll have to get another SUV!

Al Gore told me that all the ice would be gone by the beginning of the next presidential term. How could he be wrong?

Ted Annonson

Notice how it realy melted faster this past week. Think it might have had something to do with all the “hot air” rising out of Denver?

Phil.

Robert Austin (19:03:46) :
“I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.”/em>
Since it didn’t happen it fits my definition of a fairy tale!

Janama

sorry Phil but Wiki disagrees with you.
“In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.
Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.”

John Riddell

Matt Lague said
“So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one?”
For an update go to:
http://www.lewispugh.com/expeditions.html
Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) said
“On 30 August I will attempt to kayak from the Island of Spitsbergen (in Northern Europe) across the Arctic Ocean into the Arctic ice pack. I am undertaking the expedition to highlight the dramatic melting of the sea ice.
This year the ice is the thinnest on record.”
So he is leaving tomorrow. Note: He is only saying he is going to the Arctic ice pack.

RayB

“The proliferation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from auto emissions, coal plants and the like is making the Arctic Ocean less resistant to the warm periods.”
What about icebreakers?
Another study this week reported that coal emissions and particulate deposits were greatest at the beginning of the 20th century. Why the ice did not melt back then?

Matt Lague

John Riddell says,
Lewis Pugh, British kayaker will attempt to “paddle from Spitzbergen to the arctic icepack to draw attention to the thinnest ice on record”. But a month ago it was all about paddling to the north pole. “Failure will mean success” Pugh said. How the goal posts have moved. Matty, Perth

T’other Lucy Is anybody keeping count or a file of these, um, lies by the media? They seem to be piling up faster than and iceberg melting into the Titantic.
Know this funny one? Various websites like New Scientist “refute” the classic skeptic arguments and Climate Skeptic has refuted that particular set. If skeptics could have one place to refer warmists to, for instant corrections of misinformation, that would be nice. I’m thinking about it.

Denis Hopkins
Denis Hopkins

not sure if this link went through so am trying again….
this is a news article in all the sunday papers here in Uk today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/08/30/eapolar130.xml
Polar bears lost at sea as their ice berg melted

anonymous

Has anyone thought that the reason there is so little ice in the North pole is cause those damn submarines keep breaking it !!

Neil Jones

John Riddell (22:11:57) :
Matt Lague said
“So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one?”
For an update go to:
http://www.lewispugh.com/expeditions.html
Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) said
“On 30 August I will attempt to kayak from the Island of Spitsbergen (in Northern Europe) across the Arctic Ocean into the Arctic ice pack. I am undertaking the expedition to highlight the dramatic melting of the sea ice.
This year the ice is the thinnest on record.”
So he is leaving tomorrow. Note: He is only saying he is going to the Arctic ice pack

Here is an article from the biggest Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten July 28 about this guy
http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/article2563654.ece
The article is in Norwegian, a Google translation is possible, but it doesn’t do a very good job.
The headline means “Will paddle to the North Pole”
and below
“The south african adventurer Lewis Gordon Pugh (38) wishes to become the first to paddle to the North Pole”
So I think it is fair to say that the goal is the North Pole, not just the Ice Pack (which isn’t far from where he is now (Svalbard).
Btw. on his blog he explains that he has visited Svalbard each year for the last six years. He has probably arrived by airplane each time.

From the article:
29. august i år starter Pugh med kajakk fra et av de nordligste stedene på Svalbard, og skal padle de ca. 1200 kilometerne til Nordpolen. Eventyreren har fått eksperthjelp og de har kommet frem til at det skal være svært lite eller ingen is på strekningen.
My translation: “On the 29th of august this year, Pugh will kayak from one of the northernmost places on Svalbard, and will paddle the ~1200km to the North Pole. The adventurer has received expert help and they have concluded that there will be very little or no ice along the way”.

Jack Simmons

Here’s another link to the journal being kept by the north pole kayaker.
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?p=97

M White

The Kayak man Lewis Gordon Pugh has an expedition journal which can be found at
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/
Last year he went for a swim in a very conveniently situated hole in the ice at the north pole. A record of the swim can be found on U-Tube
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6sS8OcEwXNs

M White

Found another picture of submarines on the surface at the north pole
Shot: 6 May 1986.
Described “as an elevated view of the attack submarines USS RAY (SSN-653), USS HAWKBILL (SSN-666), and USS ARCHERFISH (SSN-678) surfaced at the geographic North Pole. This is the first time three nuclear-powered submarines have simultaneously surfaced at the pole.”
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Submarines_surfaced_at_the_North_Pole.jpg#filelinks

Stevie B

I just want to say “thank you” to Anthony for doing this entry. I requested he do one on this the other day. I know I wasn’t the only one, but it’s neat to have that kind of response. Keep up the great work!

It’s a good thing that we have two ice caps. The antarctic ice is actually growing ask a government scientist and they will tell you the south pole ice is a local weather event yet the same guys will say the north pole weather is clearly man made global warming. Makes your head hurt.
This issue has very little to do with actual science anymore. It is an ideology of government control. I am an engineer so I prefer to look at the science but it is not what anthropogenic global warming is. It is stacks of govenrment agencies and scientists directed through the IPCC being paid only if they find AGW.
I took a quick look at he research projects the NSIDC is operating right now. I asked myself, how many of these studies would be funded if AGW was well accepted as false? — Not too many, look for yourself.
For more information about how the UN government controls and corrupts this science
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/environment/anthropogenic-global-warming/

Sam The Skeptic

Janama,
It’s not just wiki that disagrees with Phil —
http://www.hnsa.org/ships/stroch.htm, the web site of the Historic Naval Ships Association.
Sorry, Phil, but you really need to escape the cognitive dissonance cocoon you guys are living in and come out and join the real world.
Learn little things like warm is better than cold; CO2 is not a pollutant; there is nothing new under the sun; the world did not begin in 1979. Things like that!

Mike Bryant

There is a good collection of this media misinformation and the corrections here:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/

CPT. Charles

Just a minor point, but I remember reading that there is an unusual level of [underwater] volcanic activity taking place in the Arctic Region this year; and that researchers discovered evidence of similar [past] events.
Examples:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Black_smokers_found_in_Arctic_Ocean.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Boiling_Hot_Water_Found_in_Frigid_Arctic_Sea.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Undersea_volcanic_activity_blamed_for_mass_extinction_93_million_years_ago.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Magma_May_Be_Melting_Greenland_Ice.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Arctic_seabed_afire_with_lava_spewing_volcanoes.htm
As you might suspect, these stories aren’t getting a whole lot of airtime in the ‘drive-by’ media. Hmmm…I wonder why. Any guesses, people? [Okay, snark mode off…]

John-X

“NEW”
Interview this week with Dr. David Hathaway
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1465&category=Science
“…There has not been a spot on the sun for at least a month and this is about the third rotation of the sun this cycle where we have not seen any sunspots at all. It is suggesting that the next cycle 24 might be a small cycle – much to my consternation!…”

Pete

There needs to be some sort of highly publicized “reporter jail” to “send” reporters like Bill Scanlon of Rocky Mountain News to for saying:
“It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.”
In his mild defense, it may be likely that that is what Walt Meier and other research scientists at the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center told him, but not verbatim so he didn’t quote it.
There also needs to be another similar jail to “send” research scientists and institutions who allow such inaccurate and/or out of context information to be communicated without disciplinary action being taken.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and Sarah Palin will barracuda the fraudsters. She seems like a very straight shooter. I hope McCain the maverick lets her loose.
[REPLY: Ah, not jail. They have a right of silly speech and beliefs,same as we do. Hell, maybe, but surely not jail! Let history “sort ’em out”. E]

Dan

Re: the kayak guy seeking to highlight the melt, he’s taking a big chance. If he and his chase boat get stuck in the ice and trigger a high-risk rescue attempt, you can bet every network in the world would blanket the airwaves with a rescue like that. All the public needs to see is shivering reporters in parkas, and maybe copter-shots of a hungry polar bear or two closing in on the scene as rescuers makes their way up there. So he’s taking a chance of blowing it badly.
I know there are some AGW folks on here, some of you guys might want to have a word with him, this stunt has the potential to do more damage to The Cause than to the dissenters.

Bill Illis

Lewis Pugh, the kayaker, will not get very far if he leaves Spitzbergen from the northeast side of the island since the ocean is still frozen right up to the coast on this side.
He could go northwest and get 50 miles or so before reaching the ice pack. He could go west about 500 miles and then north and get a little closer to the north pole if he really wants a good propagan-photo-op. But he won’t get any closer than 80N.

John-X

Pete (06:48:04) :
“There also needs to be another similar jail to “send” research scientists and institutions who allow such inaccurate and/or out of context information to be communicated without disciplinary action being taken.”
No, not jail, but we do need to be taking names.
If we don’t, the same people who are selling us “AGW” “policy advice” today, a few years from now will be preaching to us that global cooling is our fault and demanding that we change our behavior and invest our tax dollars in their “solutions.”

I wonder what the satellites might have seen at the North Pole when the Norse were living in “Greenland” raising crops and live stock about 1000 to 1300 AD.

evanjones

Paul Ehrlich, Dennis Meadows . . .

statePoet1775

“Hell, maybe, but surely not jail! ” jonesee
Nah, a lifetime of shame with tail tucked between legs and NO more government grants. I agree that someone should be taking names. Don’t want to have to deal with the same ninnies more than once.