Current image from Terra Satellite, rotated 90 degrees to improve view, plus annotation and world view inset added by Anthony
Source image is available here at the NASA Terra website
Originally published 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008
Updated 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008
Santa can rest easy.
It’s looking like the ice at the North Pole won’t melt to water next month, as had been feared. It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.
“It’s quite unlikely at this point,” Walt Meier a research scientist at the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, said today.
The ice in the Arctic Ocean is at near historic lows, and breaks records every couple of years due to human-caused global warming, the scientists at NSIDC say.
This spring, it was looking like the ice might retreat so far that the North Pole itself would be ice-free for at least a day in September – the height of the ice-melt season.
The chances were great enough that the scientists at NSIDC were laying almost even odds on it in an office pool.
But while global warming is playing an important role, seasonal variability does, too. And this summer turned out to be a little cooler than last summer, when the record for ice retreat was set, Meier said.
“We only have about two or three weeks more of ice melt, and it’s not going to make it to the North Pole,” Meier said.
Read the rest of the article here
I think the current mass acceptance of AGW and now climate change is certainly qualified to be added as an addendum to Charles Mackay’s ‘Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’
Does anyone know if the build up of ice at the South Pole at some point can affect the earth’s tilt or are the land masses in the NH too large for such an occurrence?
“If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage ”
My oh my, the excuses are starting to come in already, quite a change in tone from a couple of months ago! Glad to see you say “much of the damage” rather than ‘all’.
Janama (22:03:39) :
sorry Phil but Wiki disagrees with you.
“In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.
Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.”
No they agree with me, the original comment to which I was responding was:
“I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.”
Didn’t happen!
Sam The Skeptic (05:04:06) :
Janama,
It’s not just wiki that disagrees with Phil –
http://www.hnsa.org/ships/stroch.htm, the web site of the Historic Naval Ships Association.
Sorry, Phil, but you really need to escape the cognitive dissonance cocoon you guys are living in and come out and join the real world.
Sorry Sam but you really need to fix your reading comprehension!
By my last count 7 yachts sailed the NWP this season, Berrimilla an unreinforced 33′ yacht went W-E, AC to AC in a month.
Pugh ‘to kayak to North Pole’
Headline news on the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7588377.stm
Phil. (09:19:54) :
“By my last count 7 yachts sailed the NWP this season, Berrimilla an unreinforced 33′ yacht went W-E, AC to AC in a month.”
Some one should note that tools unavailable in the 1940s, .e.g. records from past success and failure, accurate maps, nagivation tools that work under clouds, satellite imagery, satellite phones, and resupply points were all important additions to the attempts this year.
So noted. I’ll also note that the crew of the Berrimilla made it quite clear it was no easy trip and the window of opportunity was just a few days.
Easier though than kayaking to the North Pole.
“If he and his chase boat get stuck in the ice and trigger a high-risk rescue attempt, you can bet every network in the world would blanket the airwaves with a rescue like that.”
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?p=102
It appears he may have a network film crew with him, ITN (independent television news)
Arctic ice melting and not coming back: scientist
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080828/arctic_ice_080827/20080830?hub=TopStories
edcon
Fascinating question.
The build-up of ice at the poles is one reason the US navy (being in charge of the world’s clocks) adds leap seconds to the calendar when needed. The Length Of Day depends on the rotation of the planet which can be altered by ice levels much like a ballerina pulling her arms toward her body to alter rotational speed.
If you are inclined to further investigate this phenomenon you could do worse than to start with Jean Picard. He measured a degree of latitude, amongst other pioneering work, and used this to give the size of our planet. He was amazingly accurate for two reasons. He used astronomical calculations and, fortuitously, he did his measuring at the “best” degree of latitude (the earth is an oblate sphere, so the “half-way point” between pole and equator is not 45 degrees but approximately 51 degrees. Paris and Greenwich are close to this line. Ancient metrologists took this into account as did the Romans (by altering the spoke length of their pedometers so that a Legionnaire earned his daily salt by covering the same distance no matter how far from the equator they roamed.
The 2009 (scheduled launch) mission PICARD is named after him due to more of his work – the first accurate measurements of the solar diameter. These were made during the Maunder minimum (a cold period in our ever changing climate) when the sun was without sunspots for many years in the 17th century. Comparing the diameter during the minimum with the diameter when active revealed a change. This difference continues to pose a question as to whether solar diameter is in some way linked with solar activity.
Picard as a starting point will lead you through most of the scientific advancements to the current state of the art.
Seasonal ice growth set a record breaking comeback during the 07-08 winter season, and not be any small insignificant amount. Not since 1979 has there been such a surge in our ice machine. While it is true that perennial ice was at its lowest since 1979 at 3 million sq km before our cold winter, the media and scientists alike equally failed to report the subsequent record breaking surge. I would be willing to bet that one has to go back a few more years prior to 1979 to see the same amount of seasonal ice regrowth as was measured in 07-08. Are we to believe that global warming turns itself off and on?
If global warming is a constant, the logic must be thus: Global warming caused the record breaking 07 Summer melt of both seasonal and perennial ice. Therefore global warming caused the record breaking subsequent re-growth of what would now be called seasonal ice. If one of these statements is not true, the other one cannot be true either.
So noted. I’ll also note that the crew of the Berrimilla made it quite clear it was no easy trip and the window of opportunity was just a few days.
Easier though than kayaking to the North Pole.
Berrimilla made it through at about the first possible date and had to squeeze through some tight gaps in the ice for a couple of days, that bottle neck has been clear since.
This is what they sailed through, up the east side, green stands for ‘go’ less than 3/10ths but still hairy in a 33′ yacht!
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS138C/20080813000100_WIS138C_0003912315.gif
and
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20080815180000_WIS38CT_0003916928.gif
This is what it looks like now:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20080830180000_WIS38CT_0003943775.gif
Berrimilla sailed fairly close to three polar bears swimming in the ocean that’s not an encounter I’d like to have in a kayak!
Pamela Gray (13:51:17) :
Seasonal ice growth set a record breaking comeback during the 07-08 winter season, and not be any small insignificant amount.
To a level exceeded in 23 of the winters since ’79.
Not since 1979 has there been such a surge in our ice machine. While it is true that perennial ice was at its lowest since 1979 at 3 million sq km before our cold winter, the media and scientists alike equally failed to report the subsequent record breaking surge.
Perhaps because it wasn’t a record, it was a return to a lower than average value from a minimum that was lower by a million sq km than the previous record, no surprise.
I would be willing to bet that one has to go back a few more years prior to 1979 to see the same amount of seasonal ice regrowth as was measured in 07-08.
Without a doubt since it would be predicated on a record low minimum!
Are we to believe that global warming turns itself off and on?
In the polar regions, yes, it’s called winter and the sun doesn’t shine there for several months!
You should also note that multiyear ice such as extensively melted last summer produces fresher melt water which floats on top of salt water and refreezes faster than the normal first year melt.
Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) appeared on BBC World Service TV just now. It was a prepared TV interview from a sunny beach outside Cape Town!! He said he hoped he would not be able to kayak to the North Pole, “because otherwise we would be in trouble”.
This has all the signs of a campaign. A taped interview, a blog (does he write it himself?), a TV crew, newspaper articles…
The Lewis Pugh stunt highlights some of the AGW affliction. They actually believe we are about to fry. If warming is contrary to recent observation, why isn’t this a neurosis. Social psychologists will have a day out with this for many years. I have seen first hand the way nonsense morphs into fact inside the leftist/eco-zealot mindset. Soon as enough of them start repeating it, it becomes true. I’m afraid it is now a cult. Matty, Perth, Western Australia
Would anyone with knowledge of what is going on perhaps like to respond to this article?
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/for-the-first-time-in-human-history-the-north-pole-can-be-circumnavigated-913924.html
The main Dutch new agency has posted an article based on this, as it seems to me, somewhat politically motivated story. What should we make of this? Wasn’t the story earlier this year that the ice had greatly recovered and we were well above the decline of last year? And considering global temperatures are a lot lower than in recent years, should we not search for a different explanation than ‘plain global warming’?
AGWers everywhere must be rejoicing (though they pretend shock and horror). Melting arctic ice is their last bastion of hope in keeping their AGW religion alive.
[…] last year. (NSIDC has more recently posted on their web site some reasons why they believe the May estimates didn’t work out.) Click for a larger image The next graph shows the NSIDC May forecast superimposed on the AMSR […]
Phil, please note I was not talking about absolute extent. I was talking about the overall minimum to maximum. Because 2007 minimum was so low, the GROWTH of ice to the next maximum IS a record. However, the extent was not. I thought I made that clear.
To CPT, Charles,
It does seem possible that volcanic activity along the 1,100 mile Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic would have an influence on sea water temperature.
The blogger at http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5589 has a simiar view, backed by several references.
This is from an article in the NYT, What’s Up With Volcanoes Under Arctic Sea Ice,1 July 2008, http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/whats-up-with-volcanoes-under-arctic-sea-ice/:
There was an eruption of assertions in recent days that the increasing summer retreats and thinning of Arctic Ocean sea ice might be a result not of atmospheric warming but instead all the heat from the recent discovered volcanoes peppering the Gakkel Ridge, one of the seams in the deep seabed at the top of the world. Several experts said it was not plausible from the get-go.
So, I suppose it is settled science?
Ok here is some really wild speculation. It seems to me that the warming of the last century has, if anything, moderated earth’s climate. Looking through some old books on google books, “warm arctic” search term, it seems that the arctic has had moderate temperatures as recently as 3,000 years ago. The fossils and remains in the region testify to this. Also, it seems that there have been no continental high temperature records set in many years. I think that it is likely that runaway global warming, would in fact be a global tempering, so that the temperatures would be more even worldwide. Imagine Hawaii all over the earth. This seems as likely to me as any catastrophic outcome.
Carbon emissions have no discernable effect on climate, but our gullibility nets promoters of this “crisis” billions per year. Meanwhile they change nothing of their own lifestyles, though they also live on the planet they claim we are destroying. Claiming to want to save us from our folly, they seek to strip away our freedoms while destroying our economy. While the climate itself mocks their so-called linkages, and our economy is already on the edge of collapse, a Democratic Congress is still pushing for carbon cap legislation. What will it take to bring this farce to an end?
Your website leads me to believe we share the concerns about this attempt to sell out our country for profit and power. Would you help me promote a book I have written examining this hoax? It is intended to make readers angry over being played for patsies. If enough people read it, it would create a public backlash against that legislation, but through my own efforts, I have been unable to sufficiently publicize this work. Would you also pass this e-mail on to all your peers you think might agree and help?
The book is entitled “A Climate Crisis a la Gore” and is organized as follows:
• Introduction – the motivation behind the assembly of this information for public use.
• Part 1 – Excerpted ideas from Mr. Gore’s book, The Assault on Reason. I use Mr. Gore’s own claims regarding the proper and reasonable way to enter an argument or evidence into the marketplace of ideas, the forum of reason, the real power behind democracy.
• Part 2 – A claim by claim analysis of Mr. Gore’s documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. These are evaluated with simple logic, claims elsewhere in the documentary, Mr. Gore’s excerpted written principles of reasoning, and scientific research and findings regarding the subjects of his claims.
• Part 3 – Discussion and disclosure of players and special interest groups creating the perception of a global climate crisis. The history of the movement is examined, motives behind involvement, dollar amounts of profit already being reaped by promoters, and what they stand to gain if America enacts carbon legislation.
• Conclusion – The coming economic storm resulting from enacting this legislation and a plea to readers to contact legislators demanding such laws be reconsidered.
Excerpts can be reviewed and the book ordered at Amazon.com by entering the title, ISBN# (978-1-4196-8684-9) or by following the link http://www.amazon.com/Climate-Crisis-Gore-perception-warming/dp/1419686844/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1202424474&sr=8-1 If you are willing to inform your readers of its contents and availability, an informed (and angry) population of voters might be a real, and maybe the only, check and balance system capable of stopping Congress.
Sincerely,
Paul Spite
[…] readers may recall some of the posts here, here, here, and here, where the sea ice data presented by NSIDC and by Cryosphere today were brought into […]