UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting
UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post
Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.
For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.
[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]
Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:
Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.
By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.
First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:
Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data
Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.
Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July. This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.
UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take
Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.
What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.
This may signal a change, or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.
UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:
Click for interactive graph
And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.
It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.
Data table below:
Data Table:
January and July values shown in bold.
| # Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data | |||
| # | decimal | mean | |
| # | date | ||
| 1958 | 3 | 1958.208 | 315.71 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1958.292 | 317.45 |
| 1958 | 5 | 1958.375 | 317.5 |
| 1958 | 6 | 1958.458 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 7 | 1958.542 | 315.86 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1958.625 | 314.93 |
| 1958 | 9 | 1958.708 | 313.2 |
| 1958 | 10 | 1958.792 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 11 | 1958.875 | 313.33 |
| 1958 | 12 | 1958.958 | 314.67 |
| 1959 | 1 | 1959.042 | 315.62 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1959.125 | 316.38 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1959.208 | 316.71 |
| 1959 | 4 | 1959.292 | 317.72 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1959.375 | 318.29 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1959.458 | 318.16 |
| 1959 | 7 | 1959.542 | 316.55 |
| 1959 | 8 | 1959.625 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 9 | 1959.708 | 313.84 |
| 1959 | 10 | 1959.792 | 313.26 |
| 1959 | 11 | 1959.875 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 12 | 1959.958 | 315.59 |
| 1960 | 1 | 1960.042 | 316.43 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1960.125 | 316.97 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1960.208 | 317.58 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1960.292 | 319.02 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1960.375 | 320.02 |
| 1960 | 6 | 1960.458 | 319.59 |
| 1960 | 7 | 1960.542 | 318.18 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1960.625 | 315.91 |
| 1960 | 9 | 1960.708 | 314.16 |
| 1960 | 10 | 1960.792 | 313.83 |
| 1960 | 11 | 1960.875 | 315 |
| 1960 | 12 | 1960.958 | 316.19 |
| 1961 | 1 | 1961.042 | 316.93 |
| 1961 | 2 | 1961.125 | 317.7 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1961.208 | 318.54 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1961.292 | 319.48 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1961.375 | 320.58 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1961.458 | 319.77 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1961.542 | 318.58 |
| 1961 | 8 | 1961.625 | 316.79 |
| 1961 | 9 | 1961.708 | 314.8 |
| 1961 | 10 | 1961.792 | 315.38 |
| 1961 | 11 | 1961.875 | 316.1 |
| 1961 | 12 | 1961.958 | 317.01 |
| 1962 | 1 | 1962.042 | 317.94 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1962.125 | 318.55 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1962.208 | 319.68 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1962.292 | 320.63 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1962.375 | 321.01 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1962.458 | 320.55 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1962.542 | 319.58 |
| 1962 | 8 | 1962.625 | 317.4 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1962.708 | 316.26 |
| 1962 | 10 | 1962.792 | 315.42 |
| 1962 | 11 | 1962.875 | 316.69 |
| 1962 | 12 | 1962.958 | 317.7 |
| 1963 | 1 | 1963.042 | 318.74 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1963.125 | 319.08 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1963.208 | 319.86 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1963.292 | 321.39 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1963.375 | 322.24 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1963.458 | 321.47 |
| 1963 | 7 | 1963.542 | 319.74 |
| 1963 | 8 | 1963.625 | 317.77 |
| 1963 | 9 | 1963.708 | 316.21 |
| 1963 | 10 | 1963.792 | 315.99 |
| 1963 | 11 | 1963.875 | 317.12 |
| 1963 | 12 | 1963.958 | 318.31 |
| 1964 | 1 | 1964.042 | 319.57 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1964.125 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1964.208 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1964.292 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1964.375 | 322.24 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1964.458 | 321.89 |
| 1964 | 7 | 1964.542 | 320.44 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1964.625 | 318.7 |
| 1964 | 9 | 1964.708 | 316.7 |
| 1964 | 10 | 1964.792 | 316.79 |
| 1964 | 11 | 1964.875 | 317.79 |
| 1964 | 12 | 1964.958 | 318.71 |
| 1965 | 1 | 1965.042 | 319.44 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1965.125 | 320.44 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1965.208 | 320.89 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1965.292 | 322.13 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1965.375 | 322.16 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1965.458 | 321.87 |
| 1965 | 7 | 1965.542 | 321.39 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1965.625 | 318.8 |
| 1965 | 9 | 1965.708 | 317.81 |
| 1965 | 10 | 1965.792 | 317.3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 1965.875 | 318.87 |
| 1965 | 12 | 1965.958 | 319.42 |
| 1966 | 1 | 1966.042 | 320.62 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1966.125 | 321.59 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1966.208 | 322.39 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1966.292 | 323.87 |
| 1966 | 5 | 1966.375 | 324.01 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1966.458 | 323.75 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1966.542 | 322.4 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1966.625 | 320.37 |
| 1966 | 9 | 1966.708 | 318.64 |
| 1966 | 10 | 1966.792 | 318.1 |
| 1966 | 11 | 1966.875 | 319.78 |
| 1966 | 12 | 1966.958 | 321.08 |
| 1967 | 1 | 1967.042 | 322.06 |
| 1967 | 2 | 1967.125 | 322.5 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1967.208 | 323.04 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1967.292 | 324.42 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1967.375 | 325 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1967.458 | 324.09 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1967.542 | 322.55 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1967.625 | 320.92 |
| 1967 | 9 | 1967.708 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 10 | 1967.792 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 11 | 1967.875 | 320.72 |
| 1967 | 12 | 1967.958 | 321.96 |
| 1968 | 1 | 1968.042 | 322.57 |
| 1968 | 2 | 1968.125 | 323.15 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1968.208 | 323.89 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1968.292 | 325.02 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1968.375 | 325.57 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1968.458 | 325.36 |
| 1968 | 7 | 1968.542 | 324.14 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1968.625 | 322.03 |
| 1968 | 9 | 1968.708 | 320.41 |
| 1968 | 10 | 1968.792 | 320.25 |
| 1968 | 11 | 1968.875 | 321.31 |
| 1968 | 12 | 1968.958 | 322.84 |
| 1969 | 1 | 1969.042 | 324 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1969.125 | 324.42 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1969.208 | 325.64 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1969.292 | 326.66 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1969.375 | 327.34 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1969.458 | 326.76 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1969.542 | 325.88 |
| 1969 | 8 | 1969.625 | 323.67 |
| 1969 | 9 | 1969.708 | 322.38 |
| 1969 | 10 | 1969.792 | 321.78 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1969.875 | 322.85 |
| 1969 | 12 | 1969.958 | 324.12 |
| 1970 | 1 | 1970.042 | 325.03 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1970.125 | 325.99 |
| 1970 | 3 | 1970.208 | 326.87 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1970.292 | 328.14 |
| 1970 | 5 | 1970.375 | 328.07 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1970.458 | 327.66 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1970.542 | 326.35 |
| 1970 | 8 | 1970.625 | 324.69 |
| 1970 | 9 | 1970.708 | 323.1 |
| 1970 | 10 | 1970.792 | 323.16 |
| 1970 | 11 | 1970.875 | 323.98 |
| 1970 | 12 | 1970.958 | 325.13 |
| 1971 | 1 | 1971.042 | 326.17 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1971.125 | 326.68 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1971.208 | 327.18 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1971.292 | 327.78 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1971.375 | 328.92 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1971.458 | 328.57 |
| 1971 | 7 | 1971.542 | 327.34 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1971.625 | 325.46 |
| 1971 | 9 | 1971.708 | 323.36 |
| 1971 | 10 | 1971.792 | 323.56 |
| 1971 | 11 | 1971.875 | 324.8 |
| 1971 | 12 | 1971.958 | 326.01 |
| 1972 | 1 | 1972.042 | 326.77 |
| 1972 | 2 | 1972.125 | 327.63 |
| 1972 | 3 | 1972.208 | 327.75 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1972.292 | 329.72 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1972.375 | 330.07 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1972.458 | 329.09 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1972.542 | 328.05 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1972.625 | 326.32 |
| 1972 | 9 | 1972.708 | 324.93 |
| 1972 | 10 | 1972.792 | 325.06 |
| 1972 | 11 | 1972.875 | 326.5 |
| 1972 | 12 | 1972.958 | 327.55 |
| 1973 | 1 | 1973.042 | 328.55 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1973.125 | 329.56 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1973.208 | 330.3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1973.292 | 331.5 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1973.375 | 332.48 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1973.458 | 332.07 |
| 1973 | 7 | 1973.542 | 330.87 |
| 1973 | 8 | 1973.625 | 329.31 |
| 1973 | 9 | 1973.708 | 327.51 |
| 1973 | 10 | 1973.792 | 327.18 |
| 1973 | 11 | 1973.875 | 328.16 |
| 1973 | 12 | 1973.958 | 328.64 |
| 1974 | 1 | 1974.042 | 329.35 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1974.125 | 330.71 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1974.208 | 331.48 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1974.292 | 332.65 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1974.375 | 333.16 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1974.458 | 332.06 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1974.542 | 330.99 |
| 1974 | 8 | 1974.625 | 329.17 |
| 1974 | 9 | 1974.708 | 327.41 |
| 1974 | 10 | 1974.792 | 327.2 |
| 1974 | 11 | 1974.875 | 328.33 |
| 1974 | 12 | 1974.958 | 329.5 |
| 1975 | 1 | 1975.042 | 330.68 |
| 1975 | 2 | 1975.125 | 331.41 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1975.208 | 331.85 |
| 1975 | 4 | 1975.292 | 333.29 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1975.375 | 333.91 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1975.458 | 333.4 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1975.542 | 331.78 |
| 1975 | 8 | 1975.625 | 329.88 |
| 1975 | 9 | 1975.708 | 328.57 |
| 1975 | 10 | 1975.792 | 328.46 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1975.875 | 329.26 |
| 1975 | 12 | 1975.958 | -99.99 |
| 1976 | 1 | 1976.042 | 331.71 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1976.125 | 332.76 |
| 1976 | 3 | 1976.208 | 333.48 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1976.292 | 334.78 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1976.375 | 334.79 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1976.458 | 334.17 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1976.542 | 332.78 |
| 1976 | 8 | 1976.625 | 330.64 |
| 1976 | 9 | 1976.708 | 328.95 |
| 1976 | 10 | 1976.792 | 328.77 |
| 1976 | 11 | 1976.875 | 330.23 |
| 1976 | 12 | 1976.958 | 331.69 |
| 1977 | 1 | 1977.042 | 332.7 |
| 1977 | 2 | 1977.125 | 333.24 |
| 1977 | 3 | 1977.208 | 334.96 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1977.292 | 336.04 |
| 1977 | 5 | 1977.375 | 336.82 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1977.458 | 336.13 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1977.542 | 334.73 |
| 1977 | 8 | 1977.625 | 332.52 |
| 1977 | 9 | 1977.708 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 10 | 1977.792 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 11 | 1977.875 | 332.35 |
| 1977 | 12 | 1977.958 | 333.47 |
| 1978 | 1 | 1978.042 | 335.11 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1978.125 | 335.26 |
| 1978 | 3 | 1978.208 | 336.6 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1978.292 | 337.77 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1978.375 | 338 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1978.458 | 337.99 |
| 1978 | 7 | 1978.542 | 336.48 |
| 1978 | 8 | 1978.625 | 334.37 |
| 1978 | 9 | 1978.708 | 332.27 |
| 1978 | 10 | 1978.792 | 332.4 |
| 1978 | 11 | 1978.875 | 333.76 |
| 1978 | 12 | 1978.958 | 334.83 |
| 1979 | 1 | 1979.042 | 336.21 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1979.125 | 336.64 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1979.208 | 338.12 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1979.292 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1979.375 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1979.458 | 339.2 |
| 1979 | 7 | 1979.542 | 337.58 |
| 1979 | 8 | 1979.625 | 335.55 |
| 1979 | 9 | 1979.708 | 333.89 |
| 1979 | 10 | 1979.792 | 334.14 |
| 1979 | 11 | 1979.875 | 335.26 |
| 1979 | 12 | 1979.958 | 336.71 |
| 1980 | 1 | 1980.042 | 337.8 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1980.125 | 338.29 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1980.208 | 340.04 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1980.292 | 340.86 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1980.375 | 341.47 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1980.458 | 341.26 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1980.542 | 339.29 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1980.625 | 337.6 |
| 1980 | 9 | 1980.708 | 336.12 |
| 1980 | 10 | 1980.792 | 336.08 |
| 1980 | 11 | 1980.875 | 337.22 |
| 1980 | 12 | 1980.958 | 338.34 |
| 1981 | 1 | 1981.042 | 339.36 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1981.125 | 340.51 |
| 1981 | 3 | 1981.208 | 341.57 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1981.292 | 342.56 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1981.375 | 343.01 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1981.458 | 342.47 |
| 1981 | 7 | 1981.542 | 340.71 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1981.625 | 338.52 |
| 1981 | 9 | 1981.708 | 336.96 |
| 1981 | 10 | 1981.792 | 337.13 |
| 1981 | 11 | 1981.875 | 338.58 |
| 1981 | 12 | 1981.958 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 1 | 1982.042 | 340.93 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1982.125 | 341.69 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1982.208 | 342.69 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1982.292 | 343.79 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1982.375 | 344.3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1982.458 | 343.43 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1982.542 | 341.88 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1982.625 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 9 | 1982.708 | 337.96 |
| 1982 | 10 | 1982.792 | 338.1 |
| 1982 | 11 | 1982.875 | 339.26 |
| 1982 | 12 | 1982.958 | 340.67 |
| 1983 | 1 | 1983.042 | 341.42 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1983.125 | 342.68 |
| 1983 | 3 | 1983.208 | 343.45 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1983.292 | 345.1 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1983.375 | 345.76 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1983.458 | 345.36 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1983.542 | 343.91 |
| 1983 | 8 | 1983.625 | 342.05 |
| 1983 | 9 | 1983.708 | 340 |
| 1983 | 10 | 1983.792 | 340.12 |
| 1983 | 11 | 1983.875 | 341.33 |
| 1983 | 12 | 1983.958 | 342.94 |
| 1984 | 1 | 1984.042 | 343.87 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1984.125 | 344.6 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1984.208 | 345.2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1984.292 | -99.99 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1984.375 | 347.36 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1984.458 | 346.74 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1984.542 | 345.41 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1984.625 | 343.01 |
| 1984 | 9 | 1984.708 | 341.23 |
| 1984 | 10 | 1984.792 | 341.52 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1984.875 | 342.86 |
| 1984 | 12 | 1984.958 | 344.41 |
| 1985 | 1 | 1985.042 | 345.09 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1985.125 | 345.89 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1985.208 | 347.5 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1985.292 | 348 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1985.375 | 348.75 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1985.458 | 348.19 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1985.542 | 346.54 |
| 1985 | 8 | 1985.625 | 344.63 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1985.708 | 343.03 |
| 1985 | 10 | 1985.792 | 342.92 |
| 1985 | 11 | 1985.875 | 344.24 |
| 1985 | 12 | 1985.958 | 345.62 |
| 1986 | 1 | 1986.042 | 346.43 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1986.125 | 346.94 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1986.208 | 347.88 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1986.292 | 349.57 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1986.375 | 350.35 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1986.458 | 349.72 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1986.542 | 347.78 |
| 1986 | 8 | 1986.625 | 345.86 |
| 1986 | 9 | 1986.708 | 344.84 |
| 1986 | 10 | 1986.792 | 344.32 |
| 1986 | 11 | 1986.875 | 345.67 |
| 1986 | 12 | 1986.958 | 346.88 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1987.042 | 348.19 |
| 1987 | 2 | 1987.125 | 348.55 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1987.208 | 349.52 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1987.292 | 351.12 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1987.375 | 351.84 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1987.458 | 351.49 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1987.542 | 349.82 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1987.625 | 347.63 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1987.708 | 346.38 |
| 1987 | 10 | 1987.792 | 346.49 |
| 1987 | 11 | 1987.875 | 347.75 |
| 1987 | 12 | 1987.958 | 349.03 |
| 1988 | 1 | 1988.042 | 350.2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1988.125 | 351.61 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1988.208 | 352.22 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1988.292 | 353.53 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1988.375 | 354.14 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1988.458 | 353.62 |
| 1988 | 7 | 1988.542 | 352.53 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1988.625 | 350.41 |
| 1988 | 9 | 1988.708 | 348.84 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1988.792 | 348.94 |
| 1988 | 11 | 1988.875 | 350.04 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1988.958 | 351.29 |
| 1989 | 1 | 1989.042 | 352.72 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1989.125 | 353.1 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1989.208 | 353.65 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1989.292 | 355.43 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1989.375 | 355.7 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1989.458 | 355.11 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1989.542 | 353.79 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1989.625 | 351.42 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1989.708 | 349.81 |
| 1989 | 10 | 1989.792 | 350.11 |
| 1989 | 11 | 1989.875 | 351.26 |
| 1989 | 12 | 1989.958 | 352.63 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1990.042 | 353.64 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1990.125 | 354.72 |
| 1990 | 3 | 1990.208 | 355.49 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1990.292 | 356.09 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1990.375 | 357.08 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1990.458 | 356.11 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1990.542 | 354.7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1990.625 | 352.68 |
| 1990 | 9 | 1990.708 | 351.05 |
| 1990 | 10 | 1990.792 | 351.36 |
| 1990 | 11 | 1990.875 | 352.81 |
| 1990 | 12 | 1990.958 | 354.22 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1991.042 | 354.85 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1991.125 | 355.67 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1991.208 | 357.04 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1991.292 | 358.4 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1991.375 | 359 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1991.458 | 357.99 |
| 1991 | 7 | 1991.542 | 356 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1991.625 | 353.78 |
| 1991 | 9 | 1991.708 | 352.2 |
| 1991 | 10 | 1991.792 | 352.22 |
| 1991 | 11 | 1991.875 | 353.7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 1991.958 | 354.98 |
| 1992 | 1 | 1992.042 | 356.09 |
| 1992 | 2 | 1992.125 | 356.85 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1992.208 | 357.73 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1992.292 | 358.91 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1992.375 | 359.45 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1992.458 | 359.19 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1992.542 | 356.72 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1992.625 | 354.79 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1992.708 | 352.79 |
| 1992 | 10 | 1992.792 | 353.2 |
| 1992 | 11 | 1992.875 | 354.15 |
| 1992 | 12 | 1992.958 | 355.39 |
| 1993 | 1 | 1993.042 | 356.77 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1993.125 | 357.17 |
| 1993 | 3 | 1993.208 | 358.26 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1993.292 | 359.17 |
| 1993 | 5 | 1993.375 | 360.07 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1993.458 | 359.41 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1993.542 | 357.44 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1993.625 | 355.3 |
| 1993 | 9 | 1993.708 | 353.87 |
| 1993 | 10 | 1993.792 | 354.04 |
| 1993 | 11 | 1993.875 | 355.27 |
| 1993 | 12 | 1993.958 | 356.7 |
| 1994 | 1 | 1994.042 | 357.99 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1994.125 | 358.81 |
| 1994 | 3 | 1994.208 | 359.68 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1994.292 | 361.13 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1994.375 | 361.48 |
| 1994 | 6 | 1994.458 | 360.6 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1994.542 | 359.2 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1994.625 | 357.23 |
| 1994 | 9 | 1994.708 | 355.42 |
| 1994 | 10 | 1994.792 | 355.89 |
| 1994 | 11 | 1994.875 | 357.41 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1994.958 | 358.74 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1995.042 | 359.73 |
| 1995 | 2 | 1995.125 | 360.61 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1995.208 | 361.58 |
| 1995 | 4 | 1995.292 | 363.05 |
| 1995 | 5 | 1995.375 | 363.62 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1995.458 | 363.03 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1995.542 | 361.55 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1995.625 | 358.94 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1995.708 | 357.93 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1995.792 | 357.8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1995.875 | 359.22 |
| 1995 | 12 | 1995.958 | 360.44 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1996.042 | 361.83 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1996.125 | 362.95 |
| 1996 | 3 | 1996.208 | 363.91 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1996.292 | 364.28 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1996.375 | 364.93 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1996.458 | 364.7 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1996.542 | 363.31 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1996.625 | 361.15 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1996.708 | 359.39 |
| 1996 | 10 | 1996.792 | 359.34 |
| 1996 | 11 | 1996.875 | 360.62 |
| 1996 | 12 | 1996.958 | 361.96 |
| 1997 | 1 | 1997.042 | 362.81 |
| 1997 | 2 | 1997.125 | 363.87 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1997.208 | 364.25 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1997.292 | 366.02 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1997.375 | 366.46 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1997.458 | 365.32 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1997.542 | 364.08 |
| 1997 | 8 | 1997.625 | 361.95 |
| 1997 | 9 | 1997.708 | 360.06 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1997.792 | 360.49 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1997.875 | 362.19 |
| 1997 | 12 | 1997.958 | 364.12 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1998.042 | 364.99 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1998.125 | 365.82 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1998.208 | 366.95 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1998.292 | 368.42 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1998.375 | 369.33 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1998.458 | 368.78 |
| 1998 | 7 | 1998.542 | 367.59 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1998.625 | 365.84 |
| 1998 | 9 | 1998.708 | 363.83 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1998.792 | 364.18 |
| 1998 | 11 | 1998.875 | 365.34 |
| 1998 | 12 | 1998.958 | 366.93 |
| 1999 | 1 | 1999.042 | 367.94 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1999.125 | 368.82 |
| 1999 | 3 | 1999.208 | 369.46 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1999.292 | 370.77 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1999.375 | 370.66 |
| 1999 | 6 | 1999.458 | 370.1 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1999.542 | 369.08 |
| 1999 | 8 | 1999.625 | 366.66 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1999.708 | 364.6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1999.792 | 365.17 |
| 1999 | 11 | 1999.875 | 366.51 |
| 1999 | 12 | 1999.958 | 367.89 |
| 2000 | 1 | 2000.042 | 369.04 |
| 2000 | 2 | 2000.125 | 369.35 |
| 2000 | 3 | 2000.208 | 370.38 |
| 2000 | 4 | 2000.292 | 371.63 |
| 2000 | 5 | 2000.375 | 371.32 |
| 2000 | 6 | 2000.458 | 371.53 |
| 2000 | 7 | 2000.542 | 369.75 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2000.625 | 368.23 |
| 2000 | 9 | 2000.708 | 366.87 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2000.792 | 366.94 |
| 2000 | 11 | 2000.875 | 368.27 |
| 2000 | 12 | 2000.958 | 369.64 |
| 2001 | 1 | 2001.042 | 370.46 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2001.125 | 371.44 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2001.208 | 372.37 |
| 2001 | 4 | 2001.292 | 373.32 |
| 2001 | 5 | 2001.375 | 373.77 |
| 2001 | 6 | 2001.458 | 373.09 |
| 2001 | 7 | 2001.542 | 371.51 |
| 2001 | 8 | 2001.625 | 369.55 |
| 2001 | 9 | 2001.708 | 368.12 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2001.792 | 368.38 |
| 2001 | 11 | 2001.875 | 369.66 |
| 2001 | 12 | 2001.958 | 371.11 |
| 2002 | 1 | 2002.042 | 372.36 |
| 2002 | 2 | 2002.125 | 373.09 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2002.208 | 373.81 |
| 2002 | 4 | 2002.292 | 374.93 |
| 2002 | 5 | 2002.375 | 375.58 |
| 2002 | 6 | 2002.458 | 375.44 |
| 2002 | 7 | 2002.542 | 373.86 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2002.625 | 371.77 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2002.708 | 370.73 |
| 2002 | 10 | 2002.792 | 370.5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 2002.875 | 372.19 |
| 2002 | 12 | 2002.958 | 373.7 |
| 2003 | 1 | 2003.042 | 374.92 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2003.125 | 375.62 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2003.208 | 376.51 |
| 2003 | 4 | 2003.292 | 377.75 |
| 2003 | 5 | 2003.375 | 378.54 |
| 2003 | 6 | 2003.458 | 378.2 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2003.542 | 376.68 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2003.625 | 374.43 |
| 2003 | 9 | 2003.708 | 373.11 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2003.792 | 373.1 |
| 2003 | 11 | 2003.875 | 374.77 |
| 2003 | 12 | 2003.958 | 375.97 |
| 2004 | 1 | 2004.042 | 377.03 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2004.125 | 377.87 |
| 2004 | 3 | 2004.208 | 378.88 |
| 2004 | 4 | 2004.292 | 380.42 |
| 2004 | 5 | 2004.375 | 380.62 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2004.458 | 379.71 |
| 2004 | 7 | 2004.542 | 377.43 |
| 2004 | 8 | 2004.625 | 376.32 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2004.708 | 374.19 |
| 2004 | 10 | 2004.792 | 374.47 |
| 2004 | 11 | 2004.875 | 376.15 |
| 2004 | 12 | 2004.958 | 377.51 |
| 2005 | 1 | 2005.042 | 378.43 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2005.125 | 379.7 |
| 2005 | 3 | 2005.208 | 380.92 |
| 2005 | 4 | 2005.292 | 382.18 |
| 2005 | 5 | 2005.375 | 382.45 |
| 2005 | 6 | 2005.458 | 382.14 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2005.542 | 380.6 |
| 2005 | 8 | 2005.625 | 378.64 |
| 2005 | 9 | 2005.708 | 376.73 |
| 2005 | 10 | 2005.792 | 376.84 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2005.875 | 378.29 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2005.958 | 380.06 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2006.042 | 381.4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2006.125 | 382.2 |
| 2006 | 3 | 2006.208 | 382.66 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2006.292 | 384.69 |
| 2006 | 5 | 2006.375 | 384.94 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2006.458 | 384.01 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2006.542 | 382.14 |
| 2006 | 8 | 2006.625 | 380.31 |
| 2006 | 9 | 2006.708 | 378.81 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2006.792 | 379.03 |
| 2006 | 11 | 2006.875 | 380.17 |
| 2006 | 12 | 2006.958 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2007.042 | 382.94 |
| 2007 | 2 | 2007.125 | 383.86 |
| 2007 | 3 | 2007.208 | 384.49 |
| 2007 | 4 | 2007.292 | 386.37 |
| 2007 | 5 | 2007.375 | 386.54 |
| 2007 | 6 | 2007.458 | 385.98 |
| 2007 | 7 | 2007.542 | 384.35 |
| 2007 | 8 | 2007.625 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2007.708 | 380.74 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2007.792 | 381.15 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2007.875 | 382.38 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2007.958 | 383.94 |
| 2008 | 1 | 2008.042 | 385.35 |
| 2008 | 2 | 2008.125 | 385.7 |
| 2008 | 3 | 2008.208 | 385.92 |
| 2008 | 4 | 2008.292 | 387.21 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2008.375 | 388.48 |
| 2008 | 6 | 2008.458 | 387.99 |
| 2008 | 7 | 2008.542 | 384.93 |
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Opps… I meant to say June to June data.
Here are the May to May plots. Slightly different, but the PDO shift stands out clear.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.375/every:12/derivative
and
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.375/every:12/derivative/derivative
Wow interesting stuff!!!
@Josh
I just saw your post. I think we are moving in the same direction. Look at the plots I just posted.
Who is John Galt?
You got me there. I hope it’s not a copyright violation to use that name as my moniker. I don’t like hiding behind an alias, but frankly I’d like to not be stalked by some lunatic because I don’t agree with their pet theory.
[…] commented on Anthony Watt’s post discussing July CO2 measured at Mauna Loa. True to form, Tamino modified the […]
Mr. Galt,
I just couldn’t avoid the tease and the double (triple?) meaning. It’s been years since I read that book but that question can still give me goosebumps.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979.375/every:12/derivative/offset:-2/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1979.375/every:12/derivative/scale:4
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979.375/every:12/derivative/offset:-1.5/plot/uah/from:1979.375/every:12/derivative/scale:2
These are May to May plots of the rate of change of CO2 and rate of change in temperature anomaly . The first is HADCrut and the second is UAH. Note that the offset and scaling is different in the two plots.
In both, we can clearly see in many instances that the difference in the rate of change for temperature precedes that of CO2 or at least coincides with CO2. In no case do we see it following CO2.
This would seem to say that temperature is initially forced and then temperature forces CO2.
– According to Becks assembly of data, after the warm period in the 1940´ies we saw a huge fast drop in CO2 after declining temperatures.
http://www.biokurs.de/treibhaus/CO2-Dateien/1942CO2peak-rev1107-c2.gif
A drop so enorm that his findings have been ignorred by AGW simply because RESULTS does not match the human view of things. (certainly d not adabt knowledge to results!)
Francois Ouellette in this blog wrote a very interesting text, describing how the CO2 increase certainly leads to explosion in plant (and plankton) growth.
Here in this very fine article
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Greening_of_the_Sahel
we find tha sahel is MASSIVELY getting smaller. Take a look at the graphic!
So!
As Francois Ouellette writes warm periods builds up a larger CO2 sink.
Return to Becks data. We see here a rather smooth curve of CO2 rise from year 1900 up to around 1930 and then quite speedy raise in the 1940´ies.
But just after 1945-50 it just free-falls so fast that data was ignored.
This is just to say: If Becks data is correct… And if the world is cooling like in after the 1940… oh dear! This CO2 fall is going to be interesting.
But thats a lot of “ifs” i know. Just speculating 🙂
Dee Norris & Ric Werme: Sorry to jump in so late. I was out of touch for a few days.
The PDO is not North Pacific SST.
http://i36.tinypic.com/200ej5f.jpg
The PDO is not SST around Hawaii.
http://i36.tinypic.com/205p4kz.jpg
PDO data is extracted from North Pacific SST data, which is why a component of it appears in the comparative graphs above. It is not an SST residual like the AMO. IMO, and that’s based on a number of papers, the PDO is a function of ENSO.
Dee, I like how the annual difference in CO2 appears dependent in part on the PDO. Great find. Those graphs may turn out better for you with smoothed NINO3.4 data. Maybe not. Only one way to find out. I’ll play with SSTs and see what I can come up with. If I find something I’ll let you know.
Rick: The 50- to 60-year cycle of the PDO does not extend back in time very far. There’s really no reason to believe it will repeat that cycle in the future.
And if is really an anthropogenic cause for this small decline ?
Take a look on this chart:
11 Billion Fewer Miles Driven in one year just in United States.
http://www.ecomodder.com/blog/2008/05/29/gas-prices-taking-effect-11-billion-less-miles-driven-this-march/
Global growth in decline ? Look at oil prices that continued to fall. Today fell $5/barrel with a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico running to Texas which is something very weird on oil markets.
@Bob
Right… PDO is a function of ENSO. PDO was the only thing on WFT that would provide an SST-related value.
I have been using WFT simply because I have a MAJOR migraine and the though of using a more complex application makes my head throb even more. Perhaps we can provide Paul Clark with some of these datasets so he can add them to WFT? I have already emailed him to see if he can add in SST, so perhaps NINO3.4 can be added as well. Also the pre-Mauna Loa CO2 Data would be nice!
Feel free to run with NINO3.4 and my starting point. If there is something there, we can take the time to test it further.
I think I am in need of signing off the PC before the throbbing turns for the worse (if that is possible).
@Dee:
Try a little smoothing on that second derivative:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.375/every:12/derivative/mean:10/derivative/mean:10
Pretty clear *something* changed ca. 1980.
John Galt,
John Galt is the name of a character in the novel “Atlas Shrugs” by
Pamela GellerAyn Rand.Ocassionally, I am confused with Robin Hood. But hey, I can take the turf 🙂
One thing I know for sure.
Here in Ottawa, Canada, it usually hits +30C in the summer, to zoom down to -30C in the winter. It hasn’t got above +28C this summer.
What is all this fuss about? Out temperatures vary 60C each year; what is 0.6C per century??
Don’t get too excitied, it’s just China trying to clear the air fo the Olympics!
Frank Lansner,
We should open up a second front in this (unfortunately) ideological war.
We are fighting the “CO2 doesn’t cause catastrophic global warming” front, but now let’s open up the “CO2 is beneficial for life on this planet” front.
CO2science has valuable ammunition in this war.
@Dee Norris:
“The PDO only shifted to positive with in the last couple of months”
Didn’t it just shift to negative?
Ric Werme (05:14:54) wrote: “…May I suggest patience for now? We’ll have the cool PDO with us for the next few decades, no rush. Heck, here in the US, the congresscritters take August off and I assume their counterparts on the olde continent are not working hard either.”
That explains it! With no bloviating going on in Foggy Bottom, the CO2 level has naturally dropped!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
Josh, Dee, Frank, everyone, great posts, very informative, breaking new ground. Could someone do a statistical probability analysis of the two theses, temp follows CO2 and CO2 follows temp? This has the potential to be another clincher surely.
James “PLEASE”: online acronym dictionaries always sorted me out. These abbreviations seem generally useful here. This could start a glossary page:
GHG green house gas
ENSO el nino southern oscillation
AGW anthropogenic global warming
GCM global climate model
AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
TSI total solar irradiation
PDO Pacific decadal oscillation
RC RealClimate.org
AIT An Inconvenient Truth
MBH99 (hockey stick) MannBradleyHughes 1999
SST sea surface temperature
FFT frequency filter technique(?)
MOC Meridional Overturning Circulation
RSS remote sensing systems
UAH Univ. of Alabama Huntsville
CA Climate Audit
GCM global climate modelling
@Josh
Other than my graduating High School in 1980, I can’t off-hand think of anything that changed. Perhaps this is an insignificant artifact of the processing?
I will sleep on it however and see what the hindbrain comes up with.
@Neilo
Whoops! I meant to say the la Nina shifted to a possible el Nino.
Thanks for the catch!
Grrr… hit the Submit too fast.
The ENSO has appeared to have shifted to a positive.
Lucy see “glossary” at top of this page.
Mike
Mr James (09:26:23) made a point I have wanted to make for weeks but felt it would expose my ignorance:
“The proliferation of undefined acronyms and other references can make for pretty tough going.”
Although I am very grateful for Mr James’s comment, I have to observe that a collection of initial letters is only an acronym if it forms a word or is pronounced as a word (such as NASA), if it is a collection of letters pronounced as letters (such as IPCC) it is an initialism not an acronym. Some dispute that even NASA is an acronym because it is not a recognised word in itself (compare The Man from UNCLE); but usage seems to be changing such that it is sufficient to pronounce it as a word in order for a collection of initials to be classified an acronym; this change is probably due to some initalisms (such as scuba and radar) describe objects or processes which do not have an existing single-word description.
What would you scientific chaps do without a pedant like me to keep you on your toes?
@Dee — it’s the 1976 Pacific climate shift, moved over by the averaging.
Nice work with the UAH-leads-CO2-in-time graph, btw. I’ll bet we’d get an even (slightly) better correlation if we had data localized to the Pacific.