UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting
UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post
Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.
For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.
[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]
Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:
Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.
By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.
First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:
Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data
Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.
Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July. This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.
UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take
Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.
What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.
This may signal a change, or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.
UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:
Click for interactive graph
And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.
It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.
Data table below:
Data Table:
January and July values shown in bold.
| # Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data | |||
| # | decimal | mean | |
| # | date | ||
| 1958 | 3 | 1958.208 | 315.71 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1958.292 | 317.45 |
| 1958 | 5 | 1958.375 | 317.5 |
| 1958 | 6 | 1958.458 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 7 | 1958.542 | 315.86 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1958.625 | 314.93 |
| 1958 | 9 | 1958.708 | 313.2 |
| 1958 | 10 | 1958.792 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 11 | 1958.875 | 313.33 |
| 1958 | 12 | 1958.958 | 314.67 |
| 1959 | 1 | 1959.042 | 315.62 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1959.125 | 316.38 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1959.208 | 316.71 |
| 1959 | 4 | 1959.292 | 317.72 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1959.375 | 318.29 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1959.458 | 318.16 |
| 1959 | 7 | 1959.542 | 316.55 |
| 1959 | 8 | 1959.625 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 9 | 1959.708 | 313.84 |
| 1959 | 10 | 1959.792 | 313.26 |
| 1959 | 11 | 1959.875 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 12 | 1959.958 | 315.59 |
| 1960 | 1 | 1960.042 | 316.43 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1960.125 | 316.97 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1960.208 | 317.58 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1960.292 | 319.02 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1960.375 | 320.02 |
| 1960 | 6 | 1960.458 | 319.59 |
| 1960 | 7 | 1960.542 | 318.18 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1960.625 | 315.91 |
| 1960 | 9 | 1960.708 | 314.16 |
| 1960 | 10 | 1960.792 | 313.83 |
| 1960 | 11 | 1960.875 | 315 |
| 1960 | 12 | 1960.958 | 316.19 |
| 1961 | 1 | 1961.042 | 316.93 |
| 1961 | 2 | 1961.125 | 317.7 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1961.208 | 318.54 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1961.292 | 319.48 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1961.375 | 320.58 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1961.458 | 319.77 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1961.542 | 318.58 |
| 1961 | 8 | 1961.625 | 316.79 |
| 1961 | 9 | 1961.708 | 314.8 |
| 1961 | 10 | 1961.792 | 315.38 |
| 1961 | 11 | 1961.875 | 316.1 |
| 1961 | 12 | 1961.958 | 317.01 |
| 1962 | 1 | 1962.042 | 317.94 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1962.125 | 318.55 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1962.208 | 319.68 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1962.292 | 320.63 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1962.375 | 321.01 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1962.458 | 320.55 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1962.542 | 319.58 |
| 1962 | 8 | 1962.625 | 317.4 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1962.708 | 316.26 |
| 1962 | 10 | 1962.792 | 315.42 |
| 1962 | 11 | 1962.875 | 316.69 |
| 1962 | 12 | 1962.958 | 317.7 |
| 1963 | 1 | 1963.042 | 318.74 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1963.125 | 319.08 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1963.208 | 319.86 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1963.292 | 321.39 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1963.375 | 322.24 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1963.458 | 321.47 |
| 1963 | 7 | 1963.542 | 319.74 |
| 1963 | 8 | 1963.625 | 317.77 |
| 1963 | 9 | 1963.708 | 316.21 |
| 1963 | 10 | 1963.792 | 315.99 |
| 1963 | 11 | 1963.875 | 317.12 |
| 1963 | 12 | 1963.958 | 318.31 |
| 1964 | 1 | 1964.042 | 319.57 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1964.125 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1964.208 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1964.292 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1964.375 | 322.24 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1964.458 | 321.89 |
| 1964 | 7 | 1964.542 | 320.44 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1964.625 | 318.7 |
| 1964 | 9 | 1964.708 | 316.7 |
| 1964 | 10 | 1964.792 | 316.79 |
| 1964 | 11 | 1964.875 | 317.79 |
| 1964 | 12 | 1964.958 | 318.71 |
| 1965 | 1 | 1965.042 | 319.44 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1965.125 | 320.44 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1965.208 | 320.89 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1965.292 | 322.13 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1965.375 | 322.16 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1965.458 | 321.87 |
| 1965 | 7 | 1965.542 | 321.39 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1965.625 | 318.8 |
| 1965 | 9 | 1965.708 | 317.81 |
| 1965 | 10 | 1965.792 | 317.3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 1965.875 | 318.87 |
| 1965 | 12 | 1965.958 | 319.42 |
| 1966 | 1 | 1966.042 | 320.62 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1966.125 | 321.59 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1966.208 | 322.39 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1966.292 | 323.87 |
| 1966 | 5 | 1966.375 | 324.01 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1966.458 | 323.75 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1966.542 | 322.4 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1966.625 | 320.37 |
| 1966 | 9 | 1966.708 | 318.64 |
| 1966 | 10 | 1966.792 | 318.1 |
| 1966 | 11 | 1966.875 | 319.78 |
| 1966 | 12 | 1966.958 | 321.08 |
| 1967 | 1 | 1967.042 | 322.06 |
| 1967 | 2 | 1967.125 | 322.5 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1967.208 | 323.04 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1967.292 | 324.42 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1967.375 | 325 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1967.458 | 324.09 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1967.542 | 322.55 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1967.625 | 320.92 |
| 1967 | 9 | 1967.708 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 10 | 1967.792 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 11 | 1967.875 | 320.72 |
| 1967 | 12 | 1967.958 | 321.96 |
| 1968 | 1 | 1968.042 | 322.57 |
| 1968 | 2 | 1968.125 | 323.15 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1968.208 | 323.89 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1968.292 | 325.02 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1968.375 | 325.57 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1968.458 | 325.36 |
| 1968 | 7 | 1968.542 | 324.14 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1968.625 | 322.03 |
| 1968 | 9 | 1968.708 | 320.41 |
| 1968 | 10 | 1968.792 | 320.25 |
| 1968 | 11 | 1968.875 | 321.31 |
| 1968 | 12 | 1968.958 | 322.84 |
| 1969 | 1 | 1969.042 | 324 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1969.125 | 324.42 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1969.208 | 325.64 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1969.292 | 326.66 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1969.375 | 327.34 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1969.458 | 326.76 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1969.542 | 325.88 |
| 1969 | 8 | 1969.625 | 323.67 |
| 1969 | 9 | 1969.708 | 322.38 |
| 1969 | 10 | 1969.792 | 321.78 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1969.875 | 322.85 |
| 1969 | 12 | 1969.958 | 324.12 |
| 1970 | 1 | 1970.042 | 325.03 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1970.125 | 325.99 |
| 1970 | 3 | 1970.208 | 326.87 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1970.292 | 328.14 |
| 1970 | 5 | 1970.375 | 328.07 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1970.458 | 327.66 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1970.542 | 326.35 |
| 1970 | 8 | 1970.625 | 324.69 |
| 1970 | 9 | 1970.708 | 323.1 |
| 1970 | 10 | 1970.792 | 323.16 |
| 1970 | 11 | 1970.875 | 323.98 |
| 1970 | 12 | 1970.958 | 325.13 |
| 1971 | 1 | 1971.042 | 326.17 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1971.125 | 326.68 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1971.208 | 327.18 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1971.292 | 327.78 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1971.375 | 328.92 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1971.458 | 328.57 |
| 1971 | 7 | 1971.542 | 327.34 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1971.625 | 325.46 |
| 1971 | 9 | 1971.708 | 323.36 |
| 1971 | 10 | 1971.792 | 323.56 |
| 1971 | 11 | 1971.875 | 324.8 |
| 1971 | 12 | 1971.958 | 326.01 |
| 1972 | 1 | 1972.042 | 326.77 |
| 1972 | 2 | 1972.125 | 327.63 |
| 1972 | 3 | 1972.208 | 327.75 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1972.292 | 329.72 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1972.375 | 330.07 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1972.458 | 329.09 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1972.542 | 328.05 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1972.625 | 326.32 |
| 1972 | 9 | 1972.708 | 324.93 |
| 1972 | 10 | 1972.792 | 325.06 |
| 1972 | 11 | 1972.875 | 326.5 |
| 1972 | 12 | 1972.958 | 327.55 |
| 1973 | 1 | 1973.042 | 328.55 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1973.125 | 329.56 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1973.208 | 330.3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1973.292 | 331.5 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1973.375 | 332.48 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1973.458 | 332.07 |
| 1973 | 7 | 1973.542 | 330.87 |
| 1973 | 8 | 1973.625 | 329.31 |
| 1973 | 9 | 1973.708 | 327.51 |
| 1973 | 10 | 1973.792 | 327.18 |
| 1973 | 11 | 1973.875 | 328.16 |
| 1973 | 12 | 1973.958 | 328.64 |
| 1974 | 1 | 1974.042 | 329.35 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1974.125 | 330.71 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1974.208 | 331.48 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1974.292 | 332.65 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1974.375 | 333.16 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1974.458 | 332.06 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1974.542 | 330.99 |
| 1974 | 8 | 1974.625 | 329.17 |
| 1974 | 9 | 1974.708 | 327.41 |
| 1974 | 10 | 1974.792 | 327.2 |
| 1974 | 11 | 1974.875 | 328.33 |
| 1974 | 12 | 1974.958 | 329.5 |
| 1975 | 1 | 1975.042 | 330.68 |
| 1975 | 2 | 1975.125 | 331.41 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1975.208 | 331.85 |
| 1975 | 4 | 1975.292 | 333.29 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1975.375 | 333.91 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1975.458 | 333.4 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1975.542 | 331.78 |
| 1975 | 8 | 1975.625 | 329.88 |
| 1975 | 9 | 1975.708 | 328.57 |
| 1975 | 10 | 1975.792 | 328.46 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1975.875 | 329.26 |
| 1975 | 12 | 1975.958 | -99.99 |
| 1976 | 1 | 1976.042 | 331.71 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1976.125 | 332.76 |
| 1976 | 3 | 1976.208 | 333.48 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1976.292 | 334.78 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1976.375 | 334.79 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1976.458 | 334.17 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1976.542 | 332.78 |
| 1976 | 8 | 1976.625 | 330.64 |
| 1976 | 9 | 1976.708 | 328.95 |
| 1976 | 10 | 1976.792 | 328.77 |
| 1976 | 11 | 1976.875 | 330.23 |
| 1976 | 12 | 1976.958 | 331.69 |
| 1977 | 1 | 1977.042 | 332.7 |
| 1977 | 2 | 1977.125 | 333.24 |
| 1977 | 3 | 1977.208 | 334.96 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1977.292 | 336.04 |
| 1977 | 5 | 1977.375 | 336.82 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1977.458 | 336.13 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1977.542 | 334.73 |
| 1977 | 8 | 1977.625 | 332.52 |
| 1977 | 9 | 1977.708 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 10 | 1977.792 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 11 | 1977.875 | 332.35 |
| 1977 | 12 | 1977.958 | 333.47 |
| 1978 | 1 | 1978.042 | 335.11 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1978.125 | 335.26 |
| 1978 | 3 | 1978.208 | 336.6 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1978.292 | 337.77 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1978.375 | 338 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1978.458 | 337.99 |
| 1978 | 7 | 1978.542 | 336.48 |
| 1978 | 8 | 1978.625 | 334.37 |
| 1978 | 9 | 1978.708 | 332.27 |
| 1978 | 10 | 1978.792 | 332.4 |
| 1978 | 11 | 1978.875 | 333.76 |
| 1978 | 12 | 1978.958 | 334.83 |
| 1979 | 1 | 1979.042 | 336.21 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1979.125 | 336.64 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1979.208 | 338.12 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1979.292 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1979.375 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1979.458 | 339.2 |
| 1979 | 7 | 1979.542 | 337.58 |
| 1979 | 8 | 1979.625 | 335.55 |
| 1979 | 9 | 1979.708 | 333.89 |
| 1979 | 10 | 1979.792 | 334.14 |
| 1979 | 11 | 1979.875 | 335.26 |
| 1979 | 12 | 1979.958 | 336.71 |
| 1980 | 1 | 1980.042 | 337.8 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1980.125 | 338.29 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1980.208 | 340.04 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1980.292 | 340.86 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1980.375 | 341.47 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1980.458 | 341.26 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1980.542 | 339.29 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1980.625 | 337.6 |
| 1980 | 9 | 1980.708 | 336.12 |
| 1980 | 10 | 1980.792 | 336.08 |
| 1980 | 11 | 1980.875 | 337.22 |
| 1980 | 12 | 1980.958 | 338.34 |
| 1981 | 1 | 1981.042 | 339.36 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1981.125 | 340.51 |
| 1981 | 3 | 1981.208 | 341.57 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1981.292 | 342.56 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1981.375 | 343.01 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1981.458 | 342.47 |
| 1981 | 7 | 1981.542 | 340.71 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1981.625 | 338.52 |
| 1981 | 9 | 1981.708 | 336.96 |
| 1981 | 10 | 1981.792 | 337.13 |
| 1981 | 11 | 1981.875 | 338.58 |
| 1981 | 12 | 1981.958 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 1 | 1982.042 | 340.93 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1982.125 | 341.69 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1982.208 | 342.69 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1982.292 | 343.79 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1982.375 | 344.3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1982.458 | 343.43 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1982.542 | 341.88 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1982.625 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 9 | 1982.708 | 337.96 |
| 1982 | 10 | 1982.792 | 338.1 |
| 1982 | 11 | 1982.875 | 339.26 |
| 1982 | 12 | 1982.958 | 340.67 |
| 1983 | 1 | 1983.042 | 341.42 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1983.125 | 342.68 |
| 1983 | 3 | 1983.208 | 343.45 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1983.292 | 345.1 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1983.375 | 345.76 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1983.458 | 345.36 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1983.542 | 343.91 |
| 1983 | 8 | 1983.625 | 342.05 |
| 1983 | 9 | 1983.708 | 340 |
| 1983 | 10 | 1983.792 | 340.12 |
| 1983 | 11 | 1983.875 | 341.33 |
| 1983 | 12 | 1983.958 | 342.94 |
| 1984 | 1 | 1984.042 | 343.87 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1984.125 | 344.6 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1984.208 | 345.2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1984.292 | -99.99 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1984.375 | 347.36 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1984.458 | 346.74 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1984.542 | 345.41 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1984.625 | 343.01 |
| 1984 | 9 | 1984.708 | 341.23 |
| 1984 | 10 | 1984.792 | 341.52 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1984.875 | 342.86 |
| 1984 | 12 | 1984.958 | 344.41 |
| 1985 | 1 | 1985.042 | 345.09 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1985.125 | 345.89 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1985.208 | 347.5 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1985.292 | 348 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1985.375 | 348.75 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1985.458 | 348.19 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1985.542 | 346.54 |
| 1985 | 8 | 1985.625 | 344.63 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1985.708 | 343.03 |
| 1985 | 10 | 1985.792 | 342.92 |
| 1985 | 11 | 1985.875 | 344.24 |
| 1985 | 12 | 1985.958 | 345.62 |
| 1986 | 1 | 1986.042 | 346.43 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1986.125 | 346.94 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1986.208 | 347.88 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1986.292 | 349.57 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1986.375 | 350.35 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1986.458 | 349.72 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1986.542 | 347.78 |
| 1986 | 8 | 1986.625 | 345.86 |
| 1986 | 9 | 1986.708 | 344.84 |
| 1986 | 10 | 1986.792 | 344.32 |
| 1986 | 11 | 1986.875 | 345.67 |
| 1986 | 12 | 1986.958 | 346.88 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1987.042 | 348.19 |
| 1987 | 2 | 1987.125 | 348.55 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1987.208 | 349.52 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1987.292 | 351.12 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1987.375 | 351.84 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1987.458 | 351.49 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1987.542 | 349.82 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1987.625 | 347.63 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1987.708 | 346.38 |
| 1987 | 10 | 1987.792 | 346.49 |
| 1987 | 11 | 1987.875 | 347.75 |
| 1987 | 12 | 1987.958 | 349.03 |
| 1988 | 1 | 1988.042 | 350.2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1988.125 | 351.61 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1988.208 | 352.22 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1988.292 | 353.53 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1988.375 | 354.14 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1988.458 | 353.62 |
| 1988 | 7 | 1988.542 | 352.53 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1988.625 | 350.41 |
| 1988 | 9 | 1988.708 | 348.84 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1988.792 | 348.94 |
| 1988 | 11 | 1988.875 | 350.04 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1988.958 | 351.29 |
| 1989 | 1 | 1989.042 | 352.72 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1989.125 | 353.1 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1989.208 | 353.65 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1989.292 | 355.43 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1989.375 | 355.7 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1989.458 | 355.11 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1989.542 | 353.79 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1989.625 | 351.42 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1989.708 | 349.81 |
| 1989 | 10 | 1989.792 | 350.11 |
| 1989 | 11 | 1989.875 | 351.26 |
| 1989 | 12 | 1989.958 | 352.63 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1990.042 | 353.64 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1990.125 | 354.72 |
| 1990 | 3 | 1990.208 | 355.49 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1990.292 | 356.09 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1990.375 | 357.08 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1990.458 | 356.11 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1990.542 | 354.7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1990.625 | 352.68 |
| 1990 | 9 | 1990.708 | 351.05 |
| 1990 | 10 | 1990.792 | 351.36 |
| 1990 | 11 | 1990.875 | 352.81 |
| 1990 | 12 | 1990.958 | 354.22 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1991.042 | 354.85 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1991.125 | 355.67 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1991.208 | 357.04 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1991.292 | 358.4 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1991.375 | 359 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1991.458 | 357.99 |
| 1991 | 7 | 1991.542 | 356 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1991.625 | 353.78 |
| 1991 | 9 | 1991.708 | 352.2 |
| 1991 | 10 | 1991.792 | 352.22 |
| 1991 | 11 | 1991.875 | 353.7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 1991.958 | 354.98 |
| 1992 | 1 | 1992.042 | 356.09 |
| 1992 | 2 | 1992.125 | 356.85 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1992.208 | 357.73 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1992.292 | 358.91 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1992.375 | 359.45 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1992.458 | 359.19 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1992.542 | 356.72 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1992.625 | 354.79 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1992.708 | 352.79 |
| 1992 | 10 | 1992.792 | 353.2 |
| 1992 | 11 | 1992.875 | 354.15 |
| 1992 | 12 | 1992.958 | 355.39 |
| 1993 | 1 | 1993.042 | 356.77 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1993.125 | 357.17 |
| 1993 | 3 | 1993.208 | 358.26 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1993.292 | 359.17 |
| 1993 | 5 | 1993.375 | 360.07 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1993.458 | 359.41 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1993.542 | 357.44 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1993.625 | 355.3 |
| 1993 | 9 | 1993.708 | 353.87 |
| 1993 | 10 | 1993.792 | 354.04 |
| 1993 | 11 | 1993.875 | 355.27 |
| 1993 | 12 | 1993.958 | 356.7 |
| 1994 | 1 | 1994.042 | 357.99 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1994.125 | 358.81 |
| 1994 | 3 | 1994.208 | 359.68 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1994.292 | 361.13 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1994.375 | 361.48 |
| 1994 | 6 | 1994.458 | 360.6 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1994.542 | 359.2 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1994.625 | 357.23 |
| 1994 | 9 | 1994.708 | 355.42 |
| 1994 | 10 | 1994.792 | 355.89 |
| 1994 | 11 | 1994.875 | 357.41 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1994.958 | 358.74 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1995.042 | 359.73 |
| 1995 | 2 | 1995.125 | 360.61 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1995.208 | 361.58 |
| 1995 | 4 | 1995.292 | 363.05 |
| 1995 | 5 | 1995.375 | 363.62 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1995.458 | 363.03 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1995.542 | 361.55 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1995.625 | 358.94 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1995.708 | 357.93 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1995.792 | 357.8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1995.875 | 359.22 |
| 1995 | 12 | 1995.958 | 360.44 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1996.042 | 361.83 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1996.125 | 362.95 |
| 1996 | 3 | 1996.208 | 363.91 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1996.292 | 364.28 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1996.375 | 364.93 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1996.458 | 364.7 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1996.542 | 363.31 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1996.625 | 361.15 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1996.708 | 359.39 |
| 1996 | 10 | 1996.792 | 359.34 |
| 1996 | 11 | 1996.875 | 360.62 |
| 1996 | 12 | 1996.958 | 361.96 |
| 1997 | 1 | 1997.042 | 362.81 |
| 1997 | 2 | 1997.125 | 363.87 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1997.208 | 364.25 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1997.292 | 366.02 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1997.375 | 366.46 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1997.458 | 365.32 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1997.542 | 364.08 |
| 1997 | 8 | 1997.625 | 361.95 |
| 1997 | 9 | 1997.708 | 360.06 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1997.792 | 360.49 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1997.875 | 362.19 |
| 1997 | 12 | 1997.958 | 364.12 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1998.042 | 364.99 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1998.125 | 365.82 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1998.208 | 366.95 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1998.292 | 368.42 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1998.375 | 369.33 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1998.458 | 368.78 |
| 1998 | 7 | 1998.542 | 367.59 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1998.625 | 365.84 |
| 1998 | 9 | 1998.708 | 363.83 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1998.792 | 364.18 |
| 1998 | 11 | 1998.875 | 365.34 |
| 1998 | 12 | 1998.958 | 366.93 |
| 1999 | 1 | 1999.042 | 367.94 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1999.125 | 368.82 |
| 1999 | 3 | 1999.208 | 369.46 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1999.292 | 370.77 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1999.375 | 370.66 |
| 1999 | 6 | 1999.458 | 370.1 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1999.542 | 369.08 |
| 1999 | 8 | 1999.625 | 366.66 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1999.708 | 364.6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1999.792 | 365.17 |
| 1999 | 11 | 1999.875 | 366.51 |
| 1999 | 12 | 1999.958 | 367.89 |
| 2000 | 1 | 2000.042 | 369.04 |
| 2000 | 2 | 2000.125 | 369.35 |
| 2000 | 3 | 2000.208 | 370.38 |
| 2000 | 4 | 2000.292 | 371.63 |
| 2000 | 5 | 2000.375 | 371.32 |
| 2000 | 6 | 2000.458 | 371.53 |
| 2000 | 7 | 2000.542 | 369.75 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2000.625 | 368.23 |
| 2000 | 9 | 2000.708 | 366.87 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2000.792 | 366.94 |
| 2000 | 11 | 2000.875 | 368.27 |
| 2000 | 12 | 2000.958 | 369.64 |
| 2001 | 1 | 2001.042 | 370.46 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2001.125 | 371.44 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2001.208 | 372.37 |
| 2001 | 4 | 2001.292 | 373.32 |
| 2001 | 5 | 2001.375 | 373.77 |
| 2001 | 6 | 2001.458 | 373.09 |
| 2001 | 7 | 2001.542 | 371.51 |
| 2001 | 8 | 2001.625 | 369.55 |
| 2001 | 9 | 2001.708 | 368.12 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2001.792 | 368.38 |
| 2001 | 11 | 2001.875 | 369.66 |
| 2001 | 12 | 2001.958 | 371.11 |
| 2002 | 1 | 2002.042 | 372.36 |
| 2002 | 2 | 2002.125 | 373.09 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2002.208 | 373.81 |
| 2002 | 4 | 2002.292 | 374.93 |
| 2002 | 5 | 2002.375 | 375.58 |
| 2002 | 6 | 2002.458 | 375.44 |
| 2002 | 7 | 2002.542 | 373.86 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2002.625 | 371.77 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2002.708 | 370.73 |
| 2002 | 10 | 2002.792 | 370.5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 2002.875 | 372.19 |
| 2002 | 12 | 2002.958 | 373.7 |
| 2003 | 1 | 2003.042 | 374.92 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2003.125 | 375.62 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2003.208 | 376.51 |
| 2003 | 4 | 2003.292 | 377.75 |
| 2003 | 5 | 2003.375 | 378.54 |
| 2003 | 6 | 2003.458 | 378.2 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2003.542 | 376.68 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2003.625 | 374.43 |
| 2003 | 9 | 2003.708 | 373.11 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2003.792 | 373.1 |
| 2003 | 11 | 2003.875 | 374.77 |
| 2003 | 12 | 2003.958 | 375.97 |
| 2004 | 1 | 2004.042 | 377.03 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2004.125 | 377.87 |
| 2004 | 3 | 2004.208 | 378.88 |
| 2004 | 4 | 2004.292 | 380.42 |
| 2004 | 5 | 2004.375 | 380.62 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2004.458 | 379.71 |
| 2004 | 7 | 2004.542 | 377.43 |
| 2004 | 8 | 2004.625 | 376.32 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2004.708 | 374.19 |
| 2004 | 10 | 2004.792 | 374.47 |
| 2004 | 11 | 2004.875 | 376.15 |
| 2004 | 12 | 2004.958 | 377.51 |
| 2005 | 1 | 2005.042 | 378.43 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2005.125 | 379.7 |
| 2005 | 3 | 2005.208 | 380.92 |
| 2005 | 4 | 2005.292 | 382.18 |
| 2005 | 5 | 2005.375 | 382.45 |
| 2005 | 6 | 2005.458 | 382.14 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2005.542 | 380.6 |
| 2005 | 8 | 2005.625 | 378.64 |
| 2005 | 9 | 2005.708 | 376.73 |
| 2005 | 10 | 2005.792 | 376.84 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2005.875 | 378.29 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2005.958 | 380.06 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2006.042 | 381.4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2006.125 | 382.2 |
| 2006 | 3 | 2006.208 | 382.66 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2006.292 | 384.69 |
| 2006 | 5 | 2006.375 | 384.94 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2006.458 | 384.01 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2006.542 | 382.14 |
| 2006 | 8 | 2006.625 | 380.31 |
| 2006 | 9 | 2006.708 | 378.81 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2006.792 | 379.03 |
| 2006 | 11 | 2006.875 | 380.17 |
| 2006 | 12 | 2006.958 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2007.042 | 382.94 |
| 2007 | 2 | 2007.125 | 383.86 |
| 2007 | 3 | 2007.208 | 384.49 |
| 2007 | 4 | 2007.292 | 386.37 |
| 2007 | 5 | 2007.375 | 386.54 |
| 2007 | 6 | 2007.458 | 385.98 |
| 2007 | 7 | 2007.542 | 384.35 |
| 2007 | 8 | 2007.625 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2007.708 | 380.74 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2007.792 | 381.15 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2007.875 | 382.38 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2007.958 | 383.94 |
| 2008 | 1 | 2008.042 | 385.35 |
| 2008 | 2 | 2008.125 | 385.7 |
| 2008 | 3 | 2008.208 | 385.92 |
| 2008 | 4 | 2008.292 | 387.21 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2008.375 | 388.48 |
| 2008 | 6 | 2008.458 | 387.99 |
| 2008 | 7 | 2008.542 | 384.93 |
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[…] Watts Up With That? _____________________________ […]
Could this paper from 1994 be relevant? http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=4033707
Abstract
The relationship between the anomalies in the sea-surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean region and the first derivative of the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been investigated by using cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis. Data of the Barrow, Mauna Loa, Samoa and South Pole stations have been used in this study. The mature stage of the El Nino events usually leads the maxima of the CO2 growth rate, especially in the Mauna Loa and South Pole records. A significant time variability of the cross-correlation and cross-spectral patterns has been observed. ***GENERALLY, THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PRECEDE THE CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GROWTH RATES BY ABOUT 5-7 MONTHS AT MAUNA LOA, 7-9 MONTHS AT SAMOA AND THE SOUTH POLE AND 8-13 MONTHS AT BARROW***
The emphasis is mine. Basically, it agrees with chemistry 101, that cold water can hold more gases than warm water. The La Nina of the past several months that has sent global temperatures downwards looks like the cause here. This has caused the CO2-holding capacity of water to increse. This correlation is probably considered “inconvenient” by Al Gore for his movie, but when did he ever let facts get in the way?
It will be interesting to see if it drops below the Sept 2007 annual low (380.74) in a couple of months.
It if turns out that this is driven by the colder SST, it will help establish that the horse goes before the cart and that rising SST of the warm PDO phase drove the CO2 increase of the latter 20th Century.
Of course, it would be utterly absurd to think this is the start of a trend, but, if I could, someday, uh, be allowed to say, ahem: HOLY S***!!! Time for Ali G to give back the Nobel!!! Time for SCRIPPS to become The SCRIPPS Institute of Oceanography instead of Institute of Propaganda!!! Time for Jimmy H to get fired at NASA!!! Time for the IPCC to fall apart!!! Oh, the list goes on in this fantasy world! Oh yeah, in case you don’t know, those propagandists at SCRIPPS will find a way to uh, “correct” the data, trust me. Because we all know it is a bug that can’t be legit, because it does not follow the impossible to be wrong computer models.
We have:
1. Measured lower ocean temps,
2. stagnating sea level rise,
3. sudden global atmospheric temperature drop,
4. stagnating CO2 levels.
These are 4 major metrics that are going AGAINST model predictions. Over the last few months, Anthony and others have been publicizing data that clearly indicate the probable start of a climate trend reversal.
Concerning ocean cooling and stagnant sea level, this has to translate into an increase in the earth’s rotational speed.
Is there daily data available on the earth’s rotational speed?
Lastly, where are the media on this historic event?
Think of the implications of sinking CO2 levels!
One of the first things freshman Geology students learn (or at least did 40 years ago,) is that ocean CO2 solubility decreases as the temperature of the water increases. If the ocean is warming, it outgases CO2. Conversely, a cooling ocean absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere.
It has been somewhat stunning watching supposedly educated scientists claiming that the Vostok cores are proof of CO2 driving the climate. There should be a huge uproar from scientists about dis-informational school textbooks like Laurie David’s – but all we hear is silence from a dumbed down scientific community.
http://www.amazon.com/Down-Earth-Guide-Global-Warming/dp/0439024943/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/103-7751873-4216629?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188408824&sr=8-2
Laurie David took the nonsense one step further in her textbook – she reversed the Vostok x-axis to make it appear that atmospheric CO2 leads temperature.
This story about scientists on drugs started out as an April Fool’s joke, but turned out to be not so funny after readers confirmed it’s accuracy.
http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/news/2008/04/smart_drugs.
“Basically, it agrees with chemistry 101, that cold water can hold more gases than warm water. The La Nina of the past several months that has sent global temperatures downwards looks like the cause here.” Walter Dnes
If the cooler Pacific is absorbing more CO2 might not this cause further cooling i.e. a positive feedback in the direction of cooling? If so, shouldn’t we make sure we have a surplus of CO2 in the atmosphere to prevent runaway cooling?
“Concerning ocean cooling and stagnant sea level, this has to translate into an increase in the earth’s rotational speed.” Pierre Gosselin
Like an ice skater pulling in her arms while spinning? But wouldn’t this require sea level to drop via thermal contraction? What a clever way to measure overall ocean temperature! (if it works.)
I have a pain between my ears. Time for bed.
Expect some
revisionism“adjustment” of the data.Temps are going up now. They will continue to go up until the next La Nina, and they will become more noticibly above average. However, what this data shows us (until SCRIPPS “adjusts” it of course) is that not every single molecule of CO2 increase was due to nasty, gluttonous, and sinful apes. I will come back to this in the afternoon.
OK, but this July is still higher than last July:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:2000.5/every:12
However, the rate of increase is lower than it has been for a while:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.5/every:12/derivative
Paul, an ignorant question from the peanut gallery. How do you compute a derivative from a set of discrete points? Is there an assumed smoothing that is done first, or is this something done all the time in statistics?
Edit: Nevermind. I looked it up.
http://pegasus.me.jhu.edu/~afi/PDF/106lec-deriv1.pdf
Al Gore’s local utility recognized him as the worlds largest emitter of CO2 and cut him off
It may be to that arctic ice is levelling out (see cryosphere today) we should wait for another 4-6 weeks to come to any conclusions but it seems so….
There is no equivalent drop in the global data, which suggests that this is a short term local variation due to La Nina (Mauna Loa being in the Pacific), so it is no big deal AFAICS.
The theory says that CO2 solubility depends on ocean temperatures, so it would be odd if ENSO has no effect on the Mauna Loa data. However, IIRC the exchange is also governed by differences in partial pressure, so the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the more is taken up by the oceans.
Ferdinand Englebean’s mass balance argument shows that man is responsible for the long term increase in atmoshperic CO2, natural variation, especially ENSO has a only a modulating effect.
I don’t see any reason to make a big deal out of any of this, it is a local effect not replicated in the global data, and the dataset is only 50 years old, so the fact that it is the first observation of this type doens’t mean it is *that* unusual. It looks to me that this is also the six month trend most likely to vary between positive and negative as it coincides with the steepest point of the annual cycle.
Following is the annual increase for the last six years, to the month of July:
ppm
2008 0.58
2007 2.21
2006 1.54
2005 3.17
2004 0.75
2003 2.82
2002 2.35
The annual average is 1.91. Looking at Pual’s second graph in #7, the rate of increase is about the same as it was 28 years ago. The jump up in the rate occurred at the great Pacific climate shift of 1976.
There is between 50 and 70 times as much carbon dioxide in the oceans as in the atmosphere. So taking the upper figure, 1.9% of the carbon dioxide of the system is in the atmosphere. The oceans and the atmosphere will maintain partial pressure equilibrium, so only 1.9% of Mankind’s CO2 emissions will remain in the atmosphere. The oceans will take the rest down into the Davy Deep.
Back to Anthony’s post on a well-mixed atmosphere, from memory there is a 10 ppm gradient between the tropics and the south pole. The atmosphere is well mixed, the gradient is simply a consequence of the great rate of turnover between the oceans and the atmosphere re CO2 – taking it at the poles and giving it up at the equator.
A large proportion of the CO2 rise since 1976 may be due to the oceans warming. Cooling may overwhelm the anthropogenic contribution and we might get a run of years of negative CO2 increment. If someone is really good, they could calculate what those numbers will be.
Can we see similar results in Alaska and South Pole yet?
[…] wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com Tags: atmosphere, carbon, carbon dioxide, co2 Related Posts […]
Take a look at the rate of increase for September CO2 plotted with the UAH and PDO index for February (allowing for an 8-month delay).
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1978.708/every:12/derivative/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1979.08/every:12/plot/uah/from:1979.08/every:12
Gasoline useage in the US has dropped sharply as higher prices start changing people’s behavior.
Assuming the same thing is happening in the rest of the world, and that could be part of the answer.
“Pierre
We have:
1. Measured lower ocean temps,
2. stagnating sea level rise,
3. sudden global atmospheric temperature drop,
4. stagnating CO2 levels.”
It’s happening again. A perfectly good theory is getting ruined by facts.
Mike Bryant
I’m sorry to be a damper on the fun, but you are all misinterpreting this data. It is clear evidence that Kyoto is working 🙂
Seriously, I will await further data, such as AIRS as recently mentioned. It is fun though, egg, face, anyone?
Woodfortress.
Higher than last July by less than one part per million. I know you were “just sayin”, but so am I. At that rate, doubling would occur when, exactly? Oh yeah, in four hundred years or so. Not that I am one of those mindless Gorebot extrapolators, like I said, I am just saying.
It could have to do with the record sea ice extent in Antarctica. Models show that as sea ice increases, the southern ocean cools, lowering atmospheric CO2, and it the world of the warmies, this is one way ice ages get tripped. So it may well be, as Ruddiman(sp?) says, that we are dodging an ice age right now with our high CO2 levels.
woodfortrees (Paul Clark) (01:58:56) :
> However, the rate of increase is lower than it has been for a while:
> http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.5/every:12/derivative
That’s certainly a wonderful tool, has anyone told you that? 🙂
After the April stumble, data recovered for the next couple of months. I noticed last night that there are several similar stumbles in summertime (e.g. 2004 at the top of this page).
May I suggest patience for now? We’ll have the cool PDO with us for the next few decades, no rush. Heck, here in the US, the congresscritters take August off and I assume their counterparts on the olde continent are not working hard either.
Besides, within a week I expect to hear that the drop is due to people driving less or to Beijing’s detox regimen for the Olympics.
Demesure (01:29:13) :
“Expect some
revisionism“adjustment” of the data.”http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ says that the most recent year of data is preliminary. Give them credit for adjustment rules that don’t affect the entire history ala GISS. Scratch that – it’s just scientific common sense not to abuse data that badly.
By the way, the global view of CO2 distribution backs up that the southern ocean might be absorbing now.