Mauna Loa CO2 January to July trend goes negative first time in history

UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting

UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post

Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.

For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.

[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]

Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:

Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.

By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.

First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:

Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data

Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.

Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July.  This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.

UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take

Residual from OLSClick for larger.

Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.

What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.

This may signal a change,  or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.

UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:

Click for interactive graph

And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.

It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.

Data table below:


Data Table:

January and July values shown in bold.

# Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data
#   decimal mean
#   date  
1958 3 1958.208 315.71
1958 4 1958.292 317.45
1958 5 1958.375 317.5
1958 6 1958.458 -99.99
1958 7 1958.542 315.86
1958 8 1958.625 314.93
1958 9 1958.708 313.2
1958 10 1958.792 -99.99
1958 11 1958.875 313.33
1958 12 1958.958 314.67
1959 1 1959.042 315.62
1959 2 1959.125 316.38
1959 3 1959.208 316.71
1959 4 1959.292 317.72
1959 5 1959.375 318.29
1959 6 1959.458 318.16
1959 7 1959.542 316.55
1959 8 1959.625 314.8
1959 9 1959.708 313.84
1959 10 1959.792 313.26
1959 11 1959.875 314.8
1959 12 1959.958 315.59
1960 1 1960.042 316.43
1960 2 1960.125 316.97
1960 3 1960.208 317.58
1960 4 1960.292 319.02
1960 5 1960.375 320.02
1960 6 1960.458 319.59
1960 7 1960.542 318.18
1960 8 1960.625 315.91
1960 9 1960.708 314.16
1960 10 1960.792 313.83
1960 11 1960.875 315
1960 12 1960.958 316.19
1961 1 1961.042 316.93
1961 2 1961.125 317.7
1961 3 1961.208 318.54
1961 4 1961.292 319.48
1961 5 1961.375 320.58
1961 6 1961.458 319.77
1961 7 1961.542 318.58
1961 8 1961.625 316.79
1961 9 1961.708 314.8
1961 10 1961.792 315.38
1961 11 1961.875 316.1
1961 12 1961.958 317.01
1962 1 1962.042 317.94
1962 2 1962.125 318.55
1962 3 1962.208 319.68
1962 4 1962.292 320.63
1962 5 1962.375 321.01
1962 6 1962.458 320.55
1962 7 1962.542 319.58
1962 8 1962.625 317.4
1962 9 1962.708 316.26
1962 10 1962.792 315.42
1962 11 1962.875 316.69
1962 12 1962.958 317.7
1963 1 1963.042 318.74
1963 2 1963.125 319.08
1963 3 1963.208 319.86
1963 4 1963.292 321.39
1963 5 1963.375 322.24
1963 6 1963.458 321.47
1963 7 1963.542 319.74
1963 8 1963.625 317.77
1963 9 1963.708 316.21
1963 10 1963.792 315.99
1963 11 1963.875 317.12
1963 12 1963.958 318.31
1964 1 1964.042 319.57
1964 2 1964.125 -99.99
1964 3 1964.208 -99.99
1964 4 1964.292 -99.99
1964 5 1964.375 322.24
1964 6 1964.458 321.89
1964 7 1964.542 320.44
1964 8 1964.625 318.7
1964 9 1964.708 316.7
1964 10 1964.792 316.79
1964 11 1964.875 317.79
1964 12 1964.958 318.71
1965 1 1965.042 319.44
1965 2 1965.125 320.44
1965 3 1965.208 320.89
1965 4 1965.292 322.13
1965 5 1965.375 322.16
1965 6 1965.458 321.87
1965 7 1965.542 321.39
1965 8 1965.625 318.8
1965 9 1965.708 317.81
1965 10 1965.792 317.3
1965 11 1965.875 318.87
1965 12 1965.958 319.42
1966 1 1966.042 320.62
1966 2 1966.125 321.59
1966 3 1966.208 322.39
1966 4 1966.292 323.87
1966 5 1966.375 324.01
1966 6 1966.458 323.75
1966 7 1966.542 322.4
1966 8 1966.625 320.37
1966 9 1966.708 318.64
1966 10 1966.792 318.1
1966 11 1966.875 319.78
1966 12 1966.958 321.08
1967 1 1967.042 322.06
1967 2 1967.125 322.5
1967 3 1967.208 323.04
1967 4 1967.292 324.42
1967 5 1967.375 325
1967 6 1967.458 324.09
1967 7 1967.542 322.55
1967 8 1967.625 320.92
1967 9 1967.708 319.31
1967 10 1967.792 319.31
1967 11 1967.875 320.72
1967 12 1967.958 321.96
1968 1 1968.042 322.57
1968 2 1968.125 323.15
1968 3 1968.208 323.89
1968 4 1968.292 325.02
1968 5 1968.375 325.57
1968 6 1968.458 325.36
1968 7 1968.542 324.14
1968 8 1968.625 322.03
1968 9 1968.708 320.41
1968 10 1968.792 320.25
1968 11 1968.875 321.31
1968 12 1968.958 322.84
1969 1 1969.042 324
1969 2 1969.125 324.42
1969 3 1969.208 325.64
1969 4 1969.292 326.66
1969 5 1969.375 327.34
1969 6 1969.458 326.76
1969 7 1969.542 325.88
1969 8 1969.625 323.67
1969 9 1969.708 322.38
1969 10 1969.792 321.78
1969 11 1969.875 322.85
1969 12 1969.958 324.12
1970 1 1970.042 325.03
1970 2 1970.125 325.99
1970 3 1970.208 326.87
1970 4 1970.292 328.14
1970 5 1970.375 328.07
1970 6 1970.458 327.66
1970 7 1970.542 326.35
1970 8 1970.625 324.69
1970 9 1970.708 323.1
1970 10 1970.792 323.16
1970 11 1970.875 323.98
1970 12 1970.958 325.13
1971 1 1971.042 326.17
1971 2 1971.125 326.68
1971 3 1971.208 327.18
1971 4 1971.292 327.78
1971 5 1971.375 328.92
1971 6 1971.458 328.57
1971 7 1971.542 327.34
1971 8 1971.625 325.46
1971 9 1971.708 323.36
1971 10 1971.792 323.56
1971 11 1971.875 324.8
1971 12 1971.958 326.01
1972 1 1972.042 326.77
1972 2 1972.125 327.63
1972 3 1972.208 327.75
1972 4 1972.292 329.72
1972 5 1972.375 330.07
1972 6 1972.458 329.09
1972 7 1972.542 328.05
1972 8 1972.625 326.32
1972 9 1972.708 324.93
1972 10 1972.792 325.06
1972 11 1972.875 326.5
1972 12 1972.958 327.55
1973 1 1973.042 328.55
1973 2 1973.125 329.56
1973 3 1973.208 330.3
1973 4 1973.292 331.5
1973 5 1973.375 332.48
1973 6 1973.458 332.07
1973 7 1973.542 330.87
1973 8 1973.625 329.31
1973 9 1973.708 327.51
1973 10 1973.792 327.18
1973 11 1973.875 328.16
1973 12 1973.958 328.64
1974 1 1974.042 329.35
1974 2 1974.125 330.71
1974 3 1974.208 331.48
1974 4 1974.292 332.65
1974 5 1974.375 333.16
1974 6 1974.458 332.06
1974 7 1974.542 330.99
1974 8 1974.625 329.17
1974 9 1974.708 327.41
1974 10 1974.792 327.2
1974 11 1974.875 328.33
1974 12 1974.958 329.5
1975 1 1975.042 330.68
1975 2 1975.125 331.41
1975 3 1975.208 331.85
1975 4 1975.292 333.29
1975 5 1975.375 333.91
1975 6 1975.458 333.4
1975 7 1975.542 331.78
1975 8 1975.625 329.88
1975 9 1975.708 328.57
1975 10 1975.792 328.46
1975 11 1975.875 329.26
1975 12 1975.958 -99.99
1976 1 1976.042 331.71
1976 2 1976.125 332.76
1976 3 1976.208 333.48
1976 4 1976.292 334.78
1976 5 1976.375 334.79
1976 6 1976.458 334.17
1976 7 1976.542 332.78
1976 8 1976.625 330.64
1976 9 1976.708 328.95
1976 10 1976.792 328.77
1976 11 1976.875 330.23
1976 12 1976.958 331.69
1977 1 1977.042 332.7
1977 2 1977.125 333.24
1977 3 1977.208 334.96
1977 4 1977.292 336.04
1977 5 1977.375 336.82
1977 6 1977.458 336.13
1977 7 1977.542 334.73
1977 8 1977.625 332.52
1977 9 1977.708 331.19
1977 10 1977.792 331.19
1977 11 1977.875 332.35
1977 12 1977.958 333.47
1978 1 1978.042 335.11
1978 2 1978.125 335.26
1978 3 1978.208 336.6
1978 4 1978.292 337.77
1978 5 1978.375 338
1978 6 1978.458 337.99
1978 7 1978.542 336.48
1978 8 1978.625 334.37
1978 9 1978.708 332.27
1978 10 1978.792 332.4
1978 11 1978.875 333.76
1978 12 1978.958 334.83
1979 1 1979.042 336.21
1979 2 1979.125 336.64
1979 3 1979.208 338.12
1979 4 1979.292 339.02
1979 5 1979.375 339.02
1979 6 1979.458 339.2
1979 7 1979.542 337.58
1979 8 1979.625 335.55
1979 9 1979.708 333.89
1979 10 1979.792 334.14
1979 11 1979.875 335.26
1979 12 1979.958 336.71
1980 1 1980.042 337.8
1980 2 1980.125 338.29
1980 3 1980.208 340.04
1980 4 1980.292 340.86
1980 5 1980.375 341.47
1980 6 1980.458 341.26
1980 7 1980.542 339.29
1980 8 1980.625 337.6
1980 9 1980.708 336.12
1980 10 1980.792 336.08
1980 11 1980.875 337.22
1980 12 1980.958 338.34
1981 1 1981.042 339.36
1981 2 1981.125 340.51
1981 3 1981.208 341.57
1981 4 1981.292 342.56
1981 5 1981.375 343.01
1981 6 1981.458 342.47
1981 7 1981.542 340.71
1981 8 1981.625 338.52
1981 9 1981.708 336.96
1981 10 1981.792 337.13
1981 11 1981.875 338.58
1981 12 1981.958 339.89
1982 1 1982.042 340.93
1982 2 1982.125 341.69
1982 3 1982.208 342.69
1982 4 1982.292 343.79
1982 5 1982.375 344.3
1982 6 1982.458 343.43
1982 7 1982.542 341.88
1982 8 1982.625 339.89
1982 9 1982.708 337.96
1982 10 1982.792 338.1
1982 11 1982.875 339.26
1982 12 1982.958 340.67
1983 1 1983.042 341.42
1983 2 1983.125 342.68
1983 3 1983.208 343.45
1983 4 1983.292 345.1
1983 5 1983.375 345.76
1983 6 1983.458 345.36
1983 7 1983.542 343.91
1983 8 1983.625 342.05
1983 9 1983.708 340
1983 10 1983.792 340.12
1983 11 1983.875 341.33
1983 12 1983.958 342.94
1984 1 1984.042 343.87
1984 2 1984.125 344.6
1984 3 1984.208 345.2
1984 4 1984.292 -99.99
1984 5 1984.375 347.36
1984 6 1984.458 346.74
1984 7 1984.542 345.41
1984 8 1984.625 343.01
1984 9 1984.708 341.23
1984 10 1984.792 341.52
1984 11 1984.875 342.86
1984 12 1984.958 344.41
1985 1 1985.042 345.09
1985 2 1985.125 345.89
1985 3 1985.208 347.5
1985 4 1985.292 348
1985 5 1985.375 348.75
1985 6 1985.458 348.19
1985 7 1985.542 346.54
1985 8 1985.625 344.63
1985 9 1985.708 343.03
1985 10 1985.792 342.92
1985 11 1985.875 344.24
1985 12 1985.958 345.62
1986 1 1986.042 346.43
1986 2 1986.125 346.94
1986 3 1986.208 347.88
1986 4 1986.292 349.57
1986 5 1986.375 350.35
1986 6 1986.458 349.72
1986 7 1986.542 347.78
1986 8 1986.625 345.86
1986 9 1986.708 344.84
1986 10 1986.792 344.32
1986 11 1986.875 345.67
1986 12 1986.958 346.88
1987 1 1987.042 348.19
1987 2 1987.125 348.55
1987 3 1987.208 349.52
1987 4 1987.292 351.12
1987 5 1987.375 351.84
1987 6 1987.458 351.49
1987 7 1987.542 349.82
1987 8 1987.625 347.63
1987 9 1987.708 346.38
1987 10 1987.792 346.49
1987 11 1987.875 347.75
1987 12 1987.958 349.03
1988 1 1988.042 350.2
1988 2 1988.125 351.61
1988 3 1988.208 352.22
1988 4 1988.292 353.53
1988 5 1988.375 354.14
1988 6 1988.458 353.62
1988 7 1988.542 352.53
1988 8 1988.625 350.41
1988 9 1988.708 348.84
1988 10 1988.792 348.94
1988 11 1988.875 350.04
1988 12 1988.958 351.29
1989 1 1989.042 352.72
1989 2 1989.125 353.1
1989 3 1989.208 353.65
1989 4 1989.292 355.43
1989 5 1989.375 355.7
1989 6 1989.458 355.11
1989 7 1989.542 353.79
1989 8 1989.625 351.42
1989 9 1989.708 349.81
1989 10 1989.792 350.11
1989 11 1989.875 351.26
1989 12 1989.958 352.63
1990 1 1990.042 353.64
1990 2 1990.125 354.72
1990 3 1990.208 355.49
1990 4 1990.292 356.09
1990 5 1990.375 357.08
1990 6 1990.458 356.11
1990 7 1990.542 354.7
1990 8 1990.625 352.68
1990 9 1990.708 351.05
1990 10 1990.792 351.36
1990 11 1990.875 352.81
1990 12 1990.958 354.22
1991 1 1991.042 354.85
1991 2 1991.125 355.67
1991 3 1991.208 357.04
1991 4 1991.292 358.4
1991 5 1991.375 359
1991 6 1991.458 357.99
1991 7 1991.542 356
1991 8 1991.625 353.78
1991 9 1991.708 352.2
1991 10 1991.792 352.22
1991 11 1991.875 353.7
1991 12 1991.958 354.98
1992 1 1992.042 356.09
1992 2 1992.125 356.85
1992 3 1992.208 357.73
1992 4 1992.292 358.91
1992 5 1992.375 359.45
1992 6 1992.458 359.19
1992 7 1992.542 356.72
1992 8 1992.625 354.79
1992 9 1992.708 352.79
1992 10 1992.792 353.2
1992 11 1992.875 354.15
1992 12 1992.958 355.39
1993 1 1993.042 356.77
1993 2 1993.125 357.17
1993 3 1993.208 358.26
1993 4 1993.292 359.17
1993 5 1993.375 360.07
1993 6 1993.458 359.41
1993 7 1993.542 357.44
1993 8 1993.625 355.3
1993 9 1993.708 353.87
1993 10 1993.792 354.04
1993 11 1993.875 355.27
1993 12 1993.958 356.7
1994 1 1994.042 357.99
1994 2 1994.125 358.81
1994 3 1994.208 359.68
1994 4 1994.292 361.13
1994 5 1994.375 361.48
1994 6 1994.458 360.6
1994 7 1994.542 359.2
1994 8 1994.625 357.23
1994 9 1994.708 355.42
1994 10 1994.792 355.89
1994 11 1994.875 357.41
1994 12 1994.958 358.74
1995 1 1995.042 359.73
1995 2 1995.125 360.61
1995 3 1995.208 361.58
1995 4 1995.292 363.05
1995 5 1995.375 363.62
1995 6 1995.458 363.03
1995 7 1995.542 361.55
1995 8 1995.625 358.94
1995 9 1995.708 357.93
1995 10 1995.792 357.8
1995 11 1995.875 359.22
1995 12 1995.958 360.44
1996 1 1996.042 361.83
1996 2 1996.125 362.95
1996 3 1996.208 363.91
1996 4 1996.292 364.28
1996 5 1996.375 364.93
1996 6 1996.458 364.7
1996 7 1996.542 363.31
1996 8 1996.625 361.15
1996 9 1996.708 359.39
1996 10 1996.792 359.34
1996 11 1996.875 360.62
1996 12 1996.958 361.96
1997 1 1997.042 362.81
1997 2 1997.125 363.87
1997 3 1997.208 364.25
1997 4 1997.292 366.02
1997 5 1997.375 366.46
1997 6 1997.458 365.32
1997 7 1997.542 364.08
1997 8 1997.625 361.95
1997 9 1997.708 360.06
1997 10 1997.792 360.49
1997 11 1997.875 362.19
1997 12 1997.958 364.12
1998 1 1998.042 364.99
1998 2 1998.125 365.82
1998 3 1998.208 366.95
1998 4 1998.292 368.42
1998 5 1998.375 369.33
1998 6 1998.458 368.78
1998 7 1998.542 367.59
1998 8 1998.625 365.84
1998 9 1998.708 363.83
1998 10 1998.792 364.18
1998 11 1998.875 365.34
1998 12 1998.958 366.93
1999 1 1999.042 367.94
1999 2 1999.125 368.82
1999 3 1999.208 369.46
1999 4 1999.292 370.77
1999 5 1999.375 370.66
1999 6 1999.458 370.1
1999 7 1999.542 369.08
1999 8 1999.625 366.66
1999 9 1999.708 364.6
1999 10 1999.792 365.17
1999 11 1999.875 366.51
1999 12 1999.958 367.89
2000 1 2000.042 369.04
2000 2 2000.125 369.35
2000 3 2000.208 370.38
2000 4 2000.292 371.63
2000 5 2000.375 371.32
2000 6 2000.458 371.53
2000 7 2000.542 369.75
2000 8 2000.625 368.23
2000 9 2000.708 366.87
2000 10 2000.792 366.94
2000 11 2000.875 368.27
2000 12 2000.958 369.64
2001 1 2001.042 370.46
2001 2 2001.125 371.44
2001 3 2001.208 372.37
2001 4 2001.292 373.32
2001 5 2001.375 373.77
2001 6 2001.458 373.09
2001 7 2001.542 371.51
2001 8 2001.625 369.55
2001 9 2001.708 368.12
2001 10 2001.792 368.38
2001 11 2001.875 369.66
2001 12 2001.958 371.11
2002 1 2002.042 372.36
2002 2 2002.125 373.09
2002 3 2002.208 373.81
2002 4 2002.292 374.93
2002 5 2002.375 375.58
2002 6 2002.458 375.44
2002 7 2002.542 373.86
2002 8 2002.625 371.77
2002 9 2002.708 370.73
2002 10 2002.792 370.5
2002 11 2002.875 372.19
2002 12 2002.958 373.7
2003 1 2003.042 374.92
2003 2 2003.125 375.62
2003 3 2003.208 376.51
2003 4 2003.292 377.75
2003 5 2003.375 378.54
2003 6 2003.458 378.2
2003 7 2003.542 376.68
2003 8 2003.625 374.43
2003 9 2003.708 373.11
2003 10 2003.792 373.1
2003 11 2003.875 374.77
2003 12 2003.958 375.97
2004 1 2004.042 377.03
2004 2 2004.125 377.87
2004 3 2004.208 378.88
2004 4 2004.292 380.42
2004 5 2004.375 380.62
2004 6 2004.458 379.71
2004 7 2004.542 377.43
2004 8 2004.625 376.32
2004 9 2004.708 374.19
2004 10 2004.792 374.47
2004 11 2004.875 376.15
2004 12 2004.958 377.51
2005 1 2005.042 378.43
2005 2 2005.125 379.7
2005 3 2005.208 380.92
2005 4 2005.292 382.18
2005 5 2005.375 382.45
2005 6 2005.458 382.14
2005 7 2005.542 380.6
2005 8 2005.625 378.64
2005 9 2005.708 376.73
2005 10 2005.792 376.84
2005 11 2005.875 378.29
2005 12 2005.958 380.06
2006 1 2006.042 381.4
2006 2 2006.125 382.2
2006 3 2006.208 382.66
2006 4 2006.292 384.69
2006 5 2006.375 384.94
2006 6 2006.458 384.01
2006 7 2006.542 382.14
2006 8 2006.625 380.31
2006 9 2006.708 378.81
2006 10 2006.792 379.03
2006 11 2006.875 380.17
2006 12 2006.958 381.85
2007 1 2007.042 382.94
2007 2 2007.125 383.86
2007 3 2007.208 384.49
2007 4 2007.292 386.37
2007 5 2007.375 386.54
2007 6 2007.458 385.98
2007 7 2007.542 384.35
2007 8 2007.625 381.85
2007 9 2007.708 380.74
2007 10 2007.792 381.15
2007 11 2007.875 382.38
2007 12 2007.958 383.94
2008 1 2008.042 385.35
2008 2 2008.125 385.7
2008 3 2008.208 385.92
2008 4 2008.292 387.21
2008 5 2008.375 388.48
2008 6 2008.458 387.99
2008 7 2008.542 384.93
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August 4, 2008 12:35 am

[…] Watts Up With That? _____________________________ […]

Editor
August 4, 2008 12:38 am

Could this paper from 1994 be relevant? http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=4033707
Abstract
The relationship between the anomalies in the sea-surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean region and the first derivative of the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been investigated by using cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis. Data of the Barrow, Mauna Loa, Samoa and South Pole stations have been used in this study. The mature stage of the El Nino events usually leads the maxima of the CO2 growth rate, especially in the Mauna Loa and South Pole records. A significant time variability of the cross-correlation and cross-spectral patterns has been observed. ***GENERALLY, THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PRECEDE THE CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GROWTH RATES BY ABOUT 5-7 MONTHS AT MAUNA LOA, 7-9 MONTHS AT SAMOA AND THE SOUTH POLE AND 8-13 MONTHS AT BARROW***
The emphasis is mine. Basically, it agrees with chemistry 101, that cold water can hold more gases than warm water. The La Nina of the past several months that has sent global temperatures downwards looks like the cause here. This has caused the CO2-holding capacity of water to increse. This correlation is probably considered “inconvenient” by Al Gore for his movie, but when did he ever let facts get in the way?

August 4, 2008 12:47 am

It will be interesting to see if it drops below the Sept 2007 annual low (380.74) in a couple of months.
It if turns out that this is driven by the colder SST, it will help establish that the horse goes before the cart and that rising SST of the warm PDO phase drove the CO2 increase of the latter 20th Century.

Flowers4Stalin
August 4, 2008 12:54 am

Of course, it would be utterly absurd to think this is the start of a trend, but, if I could, someday, uh, be allowed to say, ahem: HOLY S***!!! Time for Ali G to give back the Nobel!!! Time for SCRIPPS to become The SCRIPPS Institute of Oceanography instead of Institute of Propaganda!!! Time for Jimmy H to get fired at NASA!!! Time for the IPCC to fall apart!!! Oh, the list goes on in this fantasy world! Oh yeah, in case you don’t know, those propagandists at SCRIPPS will find a way to uh, “correct” the data, trust me. Because we all know it is a bug that can’t be legit, because it does not follow the impossible to be wrong computer models.

Pierre Gosselin
August 4, 2008 1:03 am

We have:
1. Measured lower ocean temps,
2. stagnating sea level rise,
3. sudden global atmospheric temperature drop,
4. stagnating CO2 levels.
These are 4 major metrics that are going AGAINST model predictions. Over the last few months, Anthony and others have been publicizing data that clearly indicate the probable start of a climate trend reversal.
Concerning ocean cooling and stagnant sea level, this has to translate into an increase in the earth’s rotational speed.
Is there daily data available on the earth’s rotational speed?
Lastly, where are the media on this historic event?
Think of the implications of sinking CO2 levels!

Patrick Henry
August 4, 2008 1:10 am

One of the first things freshman Geology students learn (or at least did 40 years ago,) is that ocean CO2 solubility decreases as the temperature of the water increases. If the ocean is warming, it outgases CO2. Conversely, a cooling ocean absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere.
It has been somewhat stunning watching supposedly educated scientists claiming that the Vostok cores are proof of CO2 driving the climate. There should be a huge uproar from scientists about dis-informational school textbooks like Laurie David’s – but all we hear is silence from a dumbed down scientific community.
http://www.amazon.com/Down-Earth-Guide-Global-Warming/dp/0439024943/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/103-7751873-4216629?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188408824&sr=8-2
Laurie David took the nonsense one step further in her textbook – she reversed the Vostok x-axis to make it appear that atmospheric CO2 leads temperature.
This story about scientists on drugs started out as an April Fool’s joke, but turned out to be not so funny after readers confirmed it’s accuracy.
http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/news/2008/04/smart_drugs.

statePoet1775
August 4, 2008 1:18 am

“Basically, it agrees with chemistry 101, that cold water can hold more gases than warm water. The La Nina of the past several months that has sent global temperatures downwards looks like the cause here.” Walter Dnes
If the cooler Pacific is absorbing more CO2 might not this cause further cooling i.e. a positive feedback in the direction of cooling? If so, shouldn’t we make sure we have a surplus of CO2 in the atmosphere to prevent runaway cooling?

statePoet1775
August 4, 2008 1:28 am

“Concerning ocean cooling and stagnant sea level, this has to translate into an increase in the earth’s rotational speed.” Pierre Gosselin
Like an ice skater pulling in her arms while spinning? But wouldn’t this require sea level to drop via thermal contraction? What a clever way to measure overall ocean temperature! (if it works.)
I have a pain between my ears. Time for bed.

Demesure
August 4, 2008 1:29 am

Expect some revisionism “adjustment” of the data.

Flowers4Stalin
August 4, 2008 1:29 am

Temps are going up now. They will continue to go up until the next La Nina, and they will become more noticibly above average. However, what this data shows us (until SCRIPPS “adjusts” it of course) is that not every single molecule of CO2 increase was due to nasty, gluttonous, and sinful apes. I will come back to this in the afternoon.

August 4, 2008 1:58 am

OK, but this July is still higher than last July:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:2000.5/every:12
However, the rate of increase is lower than it has been for a while:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.5/every:12/derivative

Admin
August 4, 2008 2:03 am

Paul, an ignorant question from the peanut gallery. How do you compute a derivative from a set of discrete points? Is there an assumed smoothing that is done first, or is this something done all the time in statistics?
Edit: Nevermind. I looked it up.
http://pegasus.me.jhu.edu/~afi/PDF/106lec-deriv1.pdf

Mike C
August 4, 2008 2:46 am

Al Gore’s local utility recognized him as the worlds largest emitter of CO2 and cut him off

Vincent Guerrini Jr.
August 4, 2008 2:47 am

It may be to that arctic ice is levelling out (see cryosphere today) we should wait for another 4-6 weeks to come to any conclusions but it seems so….

Beaker
August 4, 2008 3:20 am

There is no equivalent drop in the global data, which suggests that this is a short term local variation due to La Nina (Mauna Loa being in the Pacific), so it is no big deal AFAICS.
The theory says that CO2 solubility depends on ocean temperatures, so it would be odd if ENSO has no effect on the Mauna Loa data. However, IIRC the exchange is also governed by differences in partial pressure, so the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the more is taken up by the oceans.
Ferdinand Englebean’s mass balance argument shows that man is responsible for the long term increase in atmoshperic CO2, natural variation, especially ENSO has a only a modulating effect.
I don’t see any reason to make a big deal out of any of this, it is a local effect not replicated in the global data, and the dataset is only 50 years old, so the fact that it is the first observation of this type doens’t mean it is *that* unusual. It looks to me that this is also the six month trend most likely to vary between positive and negative as it coincides with the steepest point of the annual cycle.

David Archibald
August 4, 2008 3:32 am

Following is the annual increase for the last six years, to the month of July:
ppm
2008 0.58
2007 2.21
2006 1.54
2005 3.17
2004 0.75
2003 2.82
2002 2.35
The annual average is 1.91. Looking at Pual’s second graph in #7, the rate of increase is about the same as it was 28 years ago. The jump up in the rate occurred at the great Pacific climate shift of 1976.
There is between 50 and 70 times as much carbon dioxide in the oceans as in the atmosphere. So taking the upper figure, 1.9% of the carbon dioxide of the system is in the atmosphere. The oceans and the atmosphere will maintain partial pressure equilibrium, so only 1.9% of Mankind’s CO2 emissions will remain in the atmosphere. The oceans will take the rest down into the Davy Deep.
Back to Anthony’s post on a well-mixed atmosphere, from memory there is a 10 ppm gradient between the tropics and the south pole. The atmosphere is well mixed, the gradient is simply a consequence of the great rate of turnover between the oceans and the atmosphere re CO2 – taking it at the poles and giving it up at the equator.
A large proportion of the CO2 rise since 1976 may be due to the oceans warming. Cooling may overwhelm the anthropogenic contribution and we might get a run of years of negative CO2 increment. If someone is really good, they could calculate what those numbers will be.

Dave H, NZ
August 4, 2008 3:38 am

Can we see similar results in Alaska and South Pole yet?

August 4, 2008 4:01 am

[…] wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com Tags: atmosphere, carbon, carbon dioxide, co2 Related Posts […]

August 4, 2008 4:08 am

Take a look at the rate of increase for September CO2 plotted with the UAH and PDO index for February (allowing for an 8-month delay).
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1978.708/every:12/derivative/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1979.08/every:12/plot/uah/from:1979.08/every:12

MarkW
August 4, 2008 4:45 am

Gasoline useage in the US has dropped sharply as higher prices start changing people’s behavior.
Assuming the same thing is happening in the rest of the world, and that could be part of the answer.

Mike Bryant
August 4, 2008 4:53 am

“Pierre
We have:
1. Measured lower ocean temps,
2. stagnating sea level rise,
3. sudden global atmospheric temperature drop,
4. stagnating CO2 levels.”
It’s happening again. A perfectly good theory is getting ruined by facts.
Mike Bryant

Robert Wood
August 4, 2008 5:04 am

I’m sorry to be a damper on the fun, but you are all misinterpreting this data. It is clear evidence that Kyoto is working 🙂
Seriously, I will await further data, such as AIRS as recently mentioned. It is fun though, egg, face, anyone?

Yorick
August 4, 2008 5:14 am

Woodfortress.
Higher than last July by less than one part per million. I know you were “just sayin”, but so am I. At that rate, doubling would occur when, exactly? Oh yeah, in four hundred years or so. Not that I am one of those mindless Gorebot extrapolators, like I said, I am just saying.
It could have to do with the record sea ice extent in Antarctica. Models show that as sea ice increases, the southern ocean cools, lowering atmospheric CO2, and it the world of the warmies, this is one way ice ages get tripped. So it may well be, as Ruddiman(sp?) says, that we are dodging an ice age right now with our high CO2 levels.

Editor
August 4, 2008 5:14 am

woodfortrees (Paul Clark) (01:58:56) :
> However, the rate of increase is lower than it has been for a while:
> http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960.5/every:12/derivative
That’s certainly a wonderful tool, has anyone told you that? 🙂
After the April stumble, data recovered for the next couple of months. I noticed last night that there are several similar stumbles in summertime (e.g. 2004 at the top of this page).
May I suggest patience for now? We’ll have the cool PDO with us for the next few decades, no rush. Heck, here in the US, the congresscritters take August off and I assume their counterparts on the olde continent are not working hard either.
Besides, within a week I expect to hear that the drop is due to people driving less or to Beijing’s detox regimen for the Olympics.
Demesure (01:29:13) :
“Expect some revisionism “adjustment” of the data.”
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ says that the most recent year of data is preliminary. Give them credit for adjustment rules that don’t affect the entire history ala GISS. Scratch that – it’s just scientific common sense not to abuse data that badly.

Yorick
August 4, 2008 5:16 am

By the way, the global view of CO2 distribution backs up that the southern ocean might be absorbing now.

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