The Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. weblog today includes a letter from Dr. Joanne Simpson, recently retired. He calls her “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years”. It seems that she really spoke her mind on the subject of climate models and the problems of the changing measurement environment around climate monitoring stations.
The full letter is here on that weblog.
Excerpt:
Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receive any funding, I can speak quite frankly. […] The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models.
We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system. We only need to watch the weather forecasts. […] The term “global warming” itself is very vague. Where and what scales of response are measurable? One distinguished scientist has shown that many aspects of climate change are regional, some of the most harmful caused by changes in human land use.
No one seems to have properly factored in population growth and land use, particularly in tropical and coastal areas.
[…] But as a scientist I remain skeptical. I decided to keep quiet in this controversy until I had a positive contribution to make. […] Both sides (of climate debate) are now hurling personal epithets at each other, a very bad development in Earth sciences.
I agree, enough of this sniping.
Witness the cordial exchange I have with Atmoz, a graduate student at the University of Arizona in Tucson. We see things differently, each of us has made some good analyses and each of us has made some mistakes, but we don’t insult each other over it.
Though I do wish he and others would remove the cloaks of anonymity. Science has never been advanced by an anonymous person, there’s always a real person with a name at the center of discovery and progress.
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Sorry about duplicating the word “exposing” in my last comment. I’m senile you know. Have a nice cozy “groupthink.”
Lol, that much was obvious from his very first post, and his apparent bi-polar behavior here. At first I considered someone else might be posting in his name, but now I think he’s just a royal loon. Correction, I KNOW he’s just a royal loon.
Maybe the Davison is talking about human evolution. I might somewhat agree there, since most humans don’t adapt to their environs any more, but change their environs to suit them. We turn on the heat when it’s cold, and the AC when it’s hot. We drive instead of walk/run, our food is meticulously prepared, etc. On the other hand, we encourage those with genetic mutations/diseases to procreate, as opposed to a million years ago when obvious mutations might have been killed as infants. And if, in the future, we can nip genetic diseases and deformities (dwarfism, gigantism, etc) in the bud, we’d definitely cease to evolve, since everyone could be what the society at the time considers perfect. A whole ‘nother can of worms that is.
Just thinking out loud, I have no scientific basis for any of this, just thoughts.
“I’m senile you know. Have a nice cozy “groupthink.”
Ah, it all fits together now. Senile, bipolar, forgot to take his meds. I guess we should give nosivad/Davison or whatever his name is a break.
” ultraliberal mysticism” hmmm… perfect description for AGW, and for his book
“The Weather Makers” he keeps touting.
Maybe the Davison is talking about human evolution. I might somewhat agree there, since most humans don’t adapt to their environs any more, but change their environs to suit them.
Surely not! Although I do agree that we manipulate our environment, we also change it in pleasing ways and then (physically) adapt in that very direction:
For example, over the last several hundred years man has evolved substantially as a direct result of his improved physical environment (food cultivation, etc.). We are much taller, for one. We mature earlier, as well.
And not only that, but over the last cenury, thanks to an improvent in transportation and an advancement in social attitudes (both being a changing our environs to suit us), there has been a great mixing of human traits.
In the very near future, we will be “changing” man himself. Not to call that “evolution” (after a fashion) would be pedantic, to say the least. We will certainly be “different” (as in “new and improved”).
How can that not be evolution if it is considered evolution if a squirrel population gets split by a river, and one turns a little grayer and the other a little redder?
Fear not; human evolution is alive and well and living in all four corners of the earth, and probably occurring at a far more rapid pace than ever before.
But then one thing leads to another
One thing leads to another
Just look at yourself.
You are now Jeff Alberts. And a mere week ago you were “Jeff in Seattle”!
How does this stack with your thoughts, Jeff Alberts? Your post at (09:35:47) on March 1 caught my interest. I confess to knowing very little about anything at all; but do have a wide interest in many things (accelerated by four adult children who got real education). I am a listener; take it away, Jeff…
“Explosive population growth is driving human evolution to speed up around the world, according to a new study.
“The pace of change accelerated about 40,000 years ago and then picked up even more with the advent of agriculture about 10,000 years ago, the study says.
“And while humans are evolving quickly around the world, local cultural and environmental factors are shaping evolution differently on different continents. ”
Human Evolution Speeding Up, Study Says
John Roach
for National Geographic News — December 11, 2007
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071211-human-evolution.html
jeff alberts
You are right on. We do things no animal breeder would dream of doing, preserving the unfit, allowing sterile couples to procreate, letting our numbers increase without restraint and polluting our environment with our effluent and with the technology that has made all of the preceding possible.
A monoculture approaching 7 billion is doomed to its own extinction. I don’t enjoy painting such a pessimistic picture , but reality and my responsibility as a scientist and a citizen require this dismal scenario.
“Mankind fiddles as earth burns.”
John A. Davison
Jeff Alberts
Thanks for describing me as “a royal loon.” I plan to quote you along with P.Z. Myers, Ed Brayton and many others that engage in such tactics. Check my “Why Banishment” thread from time to time.
“Mankind fiddles while earth burns.”
John A. Davison
Lol, Evan, yes, I have evolved! Just taking a page out of Anthony’s book of non-anonymity. Not that I post anything useful here…
As for human evolution, I said I “might somewhat agree”. Seems that our evolution is less driven by random mutation though. Again, I’m not a biologist, don’t even have a degree in anything, just someone with eclectic interests.
Sorry nosivad, I won’t be visiting your threads at all.
Ironically, I don’t care for Meyers or his fanboys either. Any expression of doubt about GW on his blog will get you flogged as an idiot. I do agree with is atheism, but not his scientific acumen or lack thereof.
Roger, I’m happy to be proven wrong. My statement was really just a musing I’ve thought about for a long time, but never really researched. Of course, I’m not sure if interbreeding is really evolution. Maybe it is, I don’t know. And proper nutrition means we’re just reaching our fuller potential. And then again, not all societies are taller, are they?
There hasn’t been a new Genus in two million years and nothing beyond a subspecies or intraspecific variety in historical times. Visit my thread -EVOLUTION IS FINISHED – present your evidence to the contrary. Nobody else has. Be the first to prove Davison is a crackpot!
Of course inbreeding isn’t evolution. Organic evolution is a phenomenon of the distant past. Natural selection, population genetics, sexual reproduction, genetic drift, Mendelian genetics – none of these ever had anything to do with creative evolution. They are all anti-evolutionary, preserving the standard. It is all over but extinction.
“Mankind fiddles while earth burns.”
and
“A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable.”
John A. Davison
john.a.davison.free.fr/
REPLY: nosivad write: “Be the first to prove Davison is a crackpot!”
Why would anyone waste the effort?
Jeff wrote: “Roger, I’m happy to be proven wrong.”
Very last thing I would be interested in doing, Jeff. I posted the quote and link looking for comment and thoughts on this, as the whole story both intrigued and surprised me. Been simmering in the back of my mind ever since I read it as it has some major ramifications in the way we view ourselves; may even be powerful enough to break through some rather foolish political correctness which is abroad.
http://john.a.davison.free.fr/?p=18#comments
especially #71
REPLY: Well enough of this, we aren’t here to hurl insults, folks, please leave Mr. Davison alone. There is no value to getting entrenched here with circular arguments about evolution. This blog is not about evolution, so let us not allow it to be co-opted into one that is.
Let’s see if I go this right. A preview would help.
http://decorabilia.blogspot.com/2005/12/john-davison-orders-pizza.html
REPLY: Jeez I had to edit to make it show, so here is the whole URL, funny, very funny. A real “slice of life”. Thanks.
I saw that, but resisted posting it.
As a final note, IIRC, the genus Loxodonta is under 2mya by maybe half a mil. But paleobiology is only (so far) a passing interest for me. Even so, it is only one example, not much more recent than Dr. Davison says, so I don’t say it strikes him out.
The various popular cladograms certainly do not make it seem as if evolution has ceased, only that it takes millions, or even 10s of millions of years for major branch points to develop. Furthermore, our knowledge is quite incomplete, We don’t even have a handle on speciation in the Amazon (the best witches’ cauldron we’ve got), so I don’t think we can safely conclude that no new genuses have evolved in the last 2my.
My last word, I swear.
“Mankind fiddles while earth burns.”
“He doth bestride this narrow world like a colossus.”
“A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable.”
“But then one thing leads to another
One thing leads to another”
Evolution and the future of this planet are closely linked issues. The only reason that you suggest leaving me alone is because you are afraid of me and my sources. You also don’t like to see your vitriol exposed. That suits me just fine.
“Mankind fiddles while earth burns.”
John A. Davison
The juxtaposition of the two statements
“Internet blogs, almost without exception, are centers of polarization and protectionism for the particular biases of their founders.”
and
“Evolution is finished” is one of the threads on my blog and I invite all to participate there and on the “global warming” thread as well, where you can offer your opinions on what I regard as the two most pressing issues of our time, an understanding of our origins and an understanding of what seems to me to be our impending extinction. “
in a single posting is just too much for this unfulfilled snotbag. One would think that given the delicious irony of those statements that one could expect a sharp wit, instead we get a blunt weapon that knows only humorless self-aggrandizement. Pass.
Guys,
Leave poor Emeritus Professor Davison alone. (At least I think he is emeritus, but he might have been booted out of the U. of Vermont.) His website is actually funny, if you like visiting blogs where the owner talks to himself all day long. He hasn’t published anything of note in decades, and what he has published in the last 20 years has been in some obscure journal. He has no citations and has had no impact whatsoever on anyone (except himself). He doesn’t know crap about global warming or evolution. He is like the tree that fell in the forest, and no one was there to hear it fall. He doesn’t make a sound.
Good day, Rob
Lol, Rob. You ask us to leave him alone and then completely trash him.
He could be pretty sharp. Probably smarter than I am. Yet I still don’t think he is right on the issue of AGW.
Over two thirds of the people I hang out with have IQs that are, oh, about 40 to 50 points (or more) higher than mine. A natural consequence of having spent my life in the gaming industry in one way or another. (So he could be genius level and still be a cut under most of my friends.)
a.) They do indeed know more than the average dude.
b.) Their creativity is–somewhat–above average.
c.) Their wisdom averages well below par.
d.) They are every bit as likely to be wrong on any given point or issue than the average dude–perhaps more so.
“as” (Ugh. I should edit more carefully.)
Evan Jones and of course Rob, whoever that is.
It is not just I who claims that no new Genera have appeared in the last two million years. Julian Huxley, Robert Broom and Pierre Grasse, all have agreed that a new Genus has not appeared in the last two million years. I have simply extended that to claim that no new true, experimentally verified species have appeared in historical times, during which period tens of thousands of species have become extinct.
In short –
“A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable.”
Those who disagree are invited to present their evidence on my EVOLUTION IS FINISHED thread.
Thanks for not having baned or deleted me – yet! I appreciate that.
john.a.davison.free.fr/