Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President
Bounding the Fear: Last week’s TWTW discussed a presentation by Hal Doiron of The Right Climate Stuff Team (TRCS). TRCS is a group of retired and highly experienced engineers and scientists from the Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle and International Space Station eras who have volunteered their time and effort to conduct an objective, independent assessment of the carbon dioxide (CO2)-caused global warming to assess the reality of the actual threat, and separate that from unnecessary alarm. They have applied the techniques they learned for space missions to this task. A rough engineering analogy is: How can they be confident that an astronaut will not cook or freeze in a space station or a space suit?
As a young engineer, Doiron approached the modeling of the lunar lander by bounding the risks. Similarly, he approached the problem of what would happen, in the worst case, with a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) by establishing an upper bound. The team created a simple, rigorous earth surface model using principles established in Conservation of Energy. He shows how the model is validated using 165 years of atmospheric greenhouse gas data and HadCRUT surface temperature data.
The worst-case scenario is that if all the temperature rise since 1850 is from CO2 increase in the atmosphere, then doubling would result in an increase of temperatures no greater than 1.8 degrees C, and may be far less. Given the extent of the data and conservation of energy principles, the digit to the right of the decimal point is significant. [Last week, this number was omitted from the TWTW text.] From today, the net increase the estimate is no greater than 1 degree C.
With Doiron’s approach, there is no need to be bogged down in the Kiehl – Trenberth general model, for which there are no accurate measurements for some of the key energy flows. For example, with the Kiehl – Trenberth model, we cannot guess with sufficient accuracy the values of all the energy flows needed to produce meaningful result. After 37 years, the failure to significantly narrow the range given for a doubling of CO2 in the Charney Report shows that Kiehl – Trenberth approach is futile, though used by the climate establishment.
The TRCS approach is empirical, based on the best long-term surface temperature data available. One must realize that the surface data has issues, such as human change in land use, influences by changes the oceans, changes in solar activity, etc. There may be reasons to continue to monitor the temperature trends, but no reason to fear the influence of CO2.
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Quote of the Week. “As usual, nature’s imagination far surpasses our own, as we have seen from the other theories which are subtle and deep”― Richard Feynman
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Number of the Week: About $50 to $55 per barrel
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End of the Scare: At the Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-12) Christopher Monckton of Brenchley gave a mathematical presentation of climate sensitivity (the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of CO2) based upon feedback theory in electronic circuitry.
As discussed in the previous three TWTWs, the Kiehl – Trenberth model asserts a strong positive feedback of latent energy flow from the surface to the atmosphere through a phase change of water into water vapor at the surface, which condenses back into water higher in the atmosphere, giving off heat. The latent energy flow is the source of the speculated (but not observed) hot-spot, mistakenly called the “distinct human fingerprint.” The latent energy flow in the Kiehl – Trenberth model is a calculated value, needed to close the model. It is not an observed value.
Using an engineering analysis for feedbacks, Moncton arrives at a maximum sensitivity of 1.9 K (or 1.9 degrees C), remarkably close to the 1.8 degrees C result by TRCS team, using a totally different approach.
There may be objections to the Moncton approach such as claiming that the atmosphere is not an electronic circuit. However, this objection is not pertinent. The Moncton approach is standard and the same as the approach taken by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He takes the approach to its logical conclusion. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-12.
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Time to Go Home? The United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), IPCC, the Paris Agreement, and attendant political organizations built on these efforts claim a need to stop global warming at 2 degrees C. Usually, the figure is from about 1850, the start of the HadCRUT dataset of monthly instrumental temperature records formed by combining the sea surface temperature records compiled by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the land surface air temperature records compiled by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. (Note: annual atmospheric temperature data from satellites start in 1979.)
From the two analyses above, we see that the goals can be met without any economically punitive curtailment of CO2 emissions. Despite spending over $40 billion on “climate science” since 1993, the US government has failed to produce a bounding analysis. Thus far, there is no indication that the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) or any other US government entity engaged in climate studies is doing so.
It is time to declare victory, close the CO2 programs, and monitor temperatures to see if there is any real danger of temperature rise exceeding 2 C from a human cause. The projections from models that are not validated do not represent real danger. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and After Paris!
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Two Polar Vortexes? A paper published by the American Meteorological Society in January 2017 brings out an important distinction that is often glossed over: For both the northern and southern hemispheres, there are two distinct polar vortexes; one in the troposphere to about 16 km (52,000 feet) and the second in the stratosphere, strongest above 32 km (105,000 feet).
The tropospheric polar vortex is larger, exists all year, and is often called the jet stream. The smaller stratospheric polar vortex is located much closer to the poles and exists only from fall to spring. “These polar vortices are neither unusual nor extreme; they are simply basic features of Earth’s climatology.” All too often those reporting on polar vortexes do not make distinction between the types.
Further, the stratospheric vortex may play a role in weather disturbances, but often does not. “Additionally, since surface weather disturbances are associated only with displacements of the vortex edge in limited areas rather than hemispheric-scale changes to the vortex, it is not clear that invoking the term vortex clarifies anything, given that the vortex is a hemispheric-scale structure.” [Boldface was italics in the original.]
The article concludes with the need to “Make clear that any individual extreme weather event is not the consequence of either the existence or gross properties of either polar vortex, whether tropospheric or stratospheric, as both vortices are normal climatological features of Earth’s atmospheric circulation. Rather, as in the case of 2014, the events of interest tend to be associated only with transient and localized displacements of the tropospheric vortex edge.”
It appears that the human fingerprint invoked by Mr. Mann in his March 29 testimony to the House Science Committee may have been another example of Mr. Mann confusing natural events with human cause. See links under Changing Weather and Un-Science or Non-Science? in the April 8 TWTW.
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Lessons in Dogma – or Go East Young Man: The Heartland Institute has sent out copies of the book “Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming” to science teachers in the US. The National Science Teachers Association has responded by sending a letter to science teachers signed by David Evans, Executive Director. The letter states that the Heartland package “contained their propaganda on global warming.” The letter contained links to references by the North American Association for Environmental Education; National Wildlife Federation; American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); the National Center on Science Education; The CLEAN Network; and the Washington Post.
Starting in the 1990s, AAAS has refused to publish scientific papers calling into question claims of dangerous human-caused global warming. In order to publish, empirical scientists such has Roy Spencer have been forced to find journals such as Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, supported by the Korean Meteorological Society. The censorship by AAAS has enriched climate studies in the Far East, but has damaged such research in the US. The biases in the other organizations mentioned in the above letter are quite clear. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children.
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Number of the Week: About $50 to $55 per barrel. World producers and consumers are receiving a lesson in free-market economics. All too often the term “free market” is misunderstood. It is not mean that entry and exit into the market is without cost. But, a free market does not have undue government regulation or collusion between government and a few favored producers. The latter is often called “crony capitalism”
It appears that even with the new OPEC restriction on output, the price of crude oil is not surging above $50 to $55 per barrel (Brent Crude). West Texas Intermediate is somewhat lower. The price is bleak for the petro-states that depend upon high oil prices to balance their national budgets.
But, at the current price, shale oil producers are increasing output. In general, the price prompting an increase in production includes a profit margin of about 15%. Also, the Dakota Access pipeline is scheduled to start carrying oil from the Bakken to Illinois in mid-May.
The real winners are American consumers, and consumers world-wide.
As strange as it may appear, perhaps the economically sound stimulus bill passed by Washington this century was the 2005 Energy Policy Act. Although it had many questionable subsidies for alternative energy – biofuels, solar, wind, etc. – it kept Washington from controlling hydraulic fracturing for natural gas by exempting fluids used for drilling from a host of federal regulations. Since they frequently occur together, exemptions for natural gas can easily apply for oil. This cost the government nothing. See Article # 1 and links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 10, 2017
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of Climate Models
By S. Fred Singer, SEPP, July 2010
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Chaotic_Behavior_July_2011_Final.doc
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
The TRCS Climate Model
Video, Harold Doiron, The Right Climate Stuff Team, Jan 18, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj-FG5BJsGo&feature=youtu.be
It’s Time For EPA To Reconsider And Rescind The Endangerment Finding
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 11, 2017
Petition to EPA to begin a formal Reconsideration of its January 15, 2009 CO2 Endangerment Finding
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 10, 2017
EXCLUSIVE: EPA Asked To Invalidate A Pillar Of Obama’s Climate Agenda
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 10, 2017
Delingpole: EPA’s Obama-Era Endangerment Finding a Disgrace to Science, Menace to Economy
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Apr 10, 2017
Perspective Needed; Time to Identify Variations in Natural Climate Data that Exceed the Claimed Human CO2 Warming Effect
Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Apr 12, 2017
New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jan 29, 2017
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/01/new-paper-finds-global-warming-reduces.html
[SEPP Comment: Richard Lindzen has maintained that the orthodoxy has storm severity backwards. If the greenhouse effect is occurring, it occurs greatest in the polar regions, reducing the temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles. It is the temperature gradient that drives the intensity of storms, not global average temperature itself.]
Global warming: Science or dogma?
By Michael Nadler, American Thinker, Apr 15, 2017
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/04/global_warming_science_or_dogma.html
Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-12
“End of the Scare”
By Christopher Moncton, ICCC-12, Mar 24, 2017
http://climateconferences.heartland.org/christopher-monckton-iccc-12/
Power point and Video
Defending the Orthodoxy
Next 10 years critical for achieving climate change goals
Press Release, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Apr 13, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/iifa-nty041217.php
Link to paper: Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks
By B. Walsh, et al, Nature Communications, Apr 13, 2017
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14856
[SEPP Comment: Another meaningless deadline!]
The Tenth Anniversary of Massachusetts v. EPA
By Ben Levitan, Energy Collective, Apr 7, 2017
[SEPP Comment: From the Environmental Defense Fund]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Why the Private Marketplace Is a Better Bet than Government Fiat on Climate Issues
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Apr 14, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3523
Global polar bear population size is about 28,500 when updates are included
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 12, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Ice down, bears up?]
Kevin Trenberth Defends the Climate Community “Scientific Method”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 12, 2017
After Paris!
The Magic Disappearing $100 Billion Climate Fund
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 12, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/04/12/the-magic-disappearing-100-billion-climate-fund/
Christiana Figueres: Peak emissions by 2020 ‘crazy but achievable’
By Staff Writers, EDIE, Apr 11, 201, [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.edie.net/news/9/Christiana-Figueres–Peak-emissions-by-2020–crazy-but-achievable-/
[SEPP Comment: Figueres previously said the purpose of the UNFCCC, and the Paris Agreement, is to get rid of capitalism. Now they need capitalists (investors) to do it?]
Four emerging countries are pushing the US to stop being ‘unclear’ about climate change
By Elias Glenn, David Stanway, Reuters, Apr 12, 2017
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-brazil-south-africa-trump-climate-change-2017-4?r=UK&IR=T
[SEPP Comment: China, Brazil, India and South Africa want the US to pay for its “place at the table” – commit billions to the green climate fund goal of $100 billion a year.]
Change in US Administrations
Congress, Courts Must Help Trump Drain EPA Swamp
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 10, 2017
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/executive-orders-epa-staff-appointments/2017/04/10/id/783508/
Off to a bumbling start at Interior
Guest opinion by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Apr 8, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/08/off-to-a-bumbling-start-at-interior/
Social Benefits of Carbon
Cold war-era spy satellite images reveal possible effects of climate change
By Fariss Samarrai, Phys,org, Apr 10, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://phys.org/news/2017-04-cold-war-era-spy-satellite-images.html
[SEPP Comment: The greening of the world is a bad thing? The organization cannot admit that the primary cause is CO2?]
Seeking a Common Ground
The politics of knowledge
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 12, 2017
https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/12/the-politics-of-knowledge/#more-22976
Bullying as scientific misconduct
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 9, 2017
https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/09/bullying-as-scientific-misconduct/#more-22967
[SEPP Comment: Curry gives specific instances, such a Peter Gleick, who was Chair of the AGU Committee on Ethics, and Mr. Mann. For some, the title may be Bullying as a scientific method.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists
Oliva, M., Navarro, F, Hrbácek, F., Hernández, A., Nývlt, D., Pereira, P., Ruiz-Fernández, J. and Trigo, R. 2017. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere. Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223.April 13, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a17.php
“…‘from 1998 onward, a turning point has been observed in the evolution of mean annual air temperatures across the Antarctic Peninsula region, changing from a warming to a cooling trend,’ especially over the last decade (see figure below). This cooling has amounted to a 0.5 to 0.9 °C decrease in temperatures in most of the Antarctic Peninsula region, the only exception being three stations located in the southwest sector of the peninsula that experienced a slight delay in their thermal turning point, declining only over the shorter period of the past decade…”
[SEPP Comment: A warming of a part of the Antarctic Peninsula is not a warming of the Antarctic Continent, or even a warming of the entire Antarctic Peninsula!]
Mantis Shrimp Tolerate Ocean Acidification and Warming
deVries, M.S., Webb, S.J., Tu, J., Cory, E., Morgan, V., Sah, R.L., Deheyn, D.D. and Taylor, J.R.A. 2016. Stress physiology and weapon integrity of intertidal mantis shrimp under future ocean conditions. Scientific Reports 6: 38637, DOI:10.1038/srep38637. Apr 13, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a16.php
“…the mantis shrimp exhibited an ‘apparently large tolerance range for changes in environmental pH and temperature.’ More specifically, they found that ‘N. bredini showed no changes in growth, molting, enzymatic and protein indicators of oxidative stress, exoskeleton morphology, calcium content, or mechanical properties in response to experimental pH and temperature stressors,’”
How Climate Change Impacts the Malaria Burden of West Africa
Yamana, T.K., Bomblies, A. and Eltahir, E.A.B. 2016. Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa. Nature Climate Change 6: 1009-1015. Apr 10, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a4.php
Model Issues
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning
By Frédéric Hourdin, et al, AMS, Mar 2017
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1
Measurement Issues — Surface
Are Claimed Global Record-Temperatures Valid?
Guest essay by Clyde Spencer, WUWT, Apr 12, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/12/are-claimed-global-record-temperatures-valid/
[SEPP Comment: The error of false precision.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
New GOES Weather Satellite Imagery
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 9, 2017
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/04/new-goes-weather-satellite-imagery.html
Changing Weather
What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?
By Waugh, Sobel, and Polvani, AMS, Jan 2017 [H/t Climate Etc.]
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00212.1
Record Breaking Precipitation in California: Is Global Warming to Blame?
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Apr 13, 2017
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/04/record-breaking-precipitation-in.html
Drought Conditions Across the US about as Good as it Gets.
By Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, Apr 10, 2017
Frost on your car but the temperature is above freezing. How can that be?
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Apr 11, 2017
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/04/frost-on-your-car-but-temperature-is.html
Scientists link California droughts and floods to distinctive atmospheric waves
Press Release, NCAR, Via Eureka Alert, Apr 6, 2017
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/ncfa-slc040517.php
Link to paper: No Access Causes of Extreme Ridges That Induce California Droughts
By Haiyan Teng and Grant Branstator, Journal of Climate, Feb 6, 2017
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0524.1
[SEPP Comment: Rossby waves were theorized in the 1930s. The paper relies on a “hierarchy of climate models.” From the abstract: “Those heating anomalies can be caused by either natural variability or possibly by climate change, and they do not necessarily depend on ENSO.”]
Changing Climate
New Paper: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Rose 4–5°C Within ‘A Few Decades’ 14,700 Years Ago
Temperatures, Sea Levels ‘Naturally’ Rise 30 – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 13, 2017
Changing Seas
New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach
By H. B. Dieng, A. Cazenave, B. Meyssignac, and M. Ablain, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 5, 2017 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: Is it from 11-year datasets that we get estimates to the end of the century?]
Falling Sea Level: The Critical Factor in 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching!
Guest essay by Jim Steele, WUWT, Apr 5, 2017
Lowering Standards
Fifth Thing To Know About Climate Change–Nat Geographic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2017
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
US Science Teachers say trash books and watch Leo instead
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 11, 2017
Link to letter from David Evans, Executive Director, of the National Science Teachers Association, Apr 4, 2017
http://static.nsta.org/pdfs/HeartlandLetter.pdf
Questioning European Green
Extolling Failure
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 11, 2017
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2017/04/11/extolling-failure/
Mortality from Diesel Car Pollution in the UK
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Apr 9, 2016
http://euanmearns.com/mortality-from-diesel-car-pollution-in-the-uk/#more-17820
[SEPP Comment: Or why one should doubt the data as well as the statistics.]
From killer diesel fumes to ruinous floods, every green initiative imposed on us by politicians has ended in disaster… and this is the great folly of our age,
By Christopher Booker, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 7, 2017
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Tesla bubble
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Apr 7, 2017
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1044
Funding Issues
Who Should Fund Science?
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Apr 10, 2017
https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/who-should-fund-science
Litigation Issues
One of the Supreme Court’s Worst Decisions Was About Science
By Ross Pomeroy, Real Clear Science, April 10, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Bad Timing for a Carbon Tax
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Apr 11, 2017
https://www.cato.org/blog/bad-timing-carbon-tax
Link to paper: The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning
By Frédéric Hourdin, et al. AMS, Mar 2017
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1
[SEPP Comment: It is not timely to insist on a carbon tax because the models are singing off-key – they have been tuned incorrectly.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Solar power crisis blamed on Tory Government as number of new installations plummets 80%
‘What we are asking for, and urgently, is fair tax treatment, fixes to a failing policy, less red tape and just a level playing field,’ says solar industry body
By Ian Johnston, Independent, UK, Apr 14, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Constant tax subsidies create a “level playing field”? Why are industries that require tax subsidies called sustainable?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Swamp Diving: The EPA’s Secret Human Experiment Regime
By John Dunn and Steve Milloy, American Thinker, Apr 11, 2017
Energy Issues – Non-US
OPEC sees rivals’ oil output rising as it over-delivers on cuts
By Alex Lawler, Reuters, Apr 12, 2017
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-opec-oil-outlook-idUKKBN17E1C1?il=0
Energy Issues – Australia
Australians duped into thinking that renewable energy is cheap
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 12, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/04/australians-duped-into-thinking-that-renewable-energy-is-cheap/
[SEPP Comment: It is free, as long as you do not have to harness it, or do not depend on it.]
South Australia Demolishes their Last Coal Power Station
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 10, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/10/south-australia-demolishes-their-last-coal-power-station/
Energy Issues — US
Fracking Comes To Alaska, Triggering New Oil Boom
By Andrew Follett, Daily Caller, Apr 13, 2017
http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/13/fracking-comes-to-alaska-triggering-new-oil-boom/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Shale Versus the World
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 7, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/04/07/shale-versus-the-world/
Return of King Coal?
China buys more U.S. coal, sends North Korea packing
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Apr 11, 2017
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Potentially explosive methane gas mobile in groundwater, poses safety risk: U of G study
Press Release, University of Guelph, Apr 5, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170405101856.htm
Link to paper: Mobility and persistence of methane in groundwater in a controlled-release field experiment
By Aaron G. Cahill, et al, Nature Geoscience, Mar 27, 2017
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n4/full/ngeo2919.html
“The researchers injected methane over 72 days into a shallow sand aquifer and monitored it for more than eight months at Canadian Forces Base Borden in Ontario. They found the gas travelled through the ground, was sometimes released into the atmosphere and dissolved extensively into the groundwater, where it changed water chemistry.” [Boldface added.]
[SEPP Comment: No doubt the study will be used to claim that a properly drilled well in dense shale will have similar properties. Sandstone has distinctly different properties than shale.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The dream of 100% renewables assessed by Heard et al
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Apr 12, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/the-dream-of-100-renewables-assessed-by-heard-et-al/
[SEPP Comment: Six realistic criteria result in failure of all plans reviewed.]
Properly Representing Wind and Solar in Electricity Systems: Electricity Generated (Part II)
By Kent Hawkins, Master Resource, Apr 22, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/renewables-and-grid-parity/wind-solar-systems-ii/
[SEPP Comment: Follow-up on Part I, which explains the logical error of comparing non-dispatchable generation technologies (wind and solar) directly with dispatchable generation.]
https://www.masterresource.org/hawkins-kent/wind-solar-systems-i/
Renewable energy myths abound
By Isaac Orr, The Detroit News, Apr 12, 2017
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2017/04/12/renewable-energy/100343640/
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Apr 10, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Vehicle Industry Issues
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 14, 2017
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/electric-vehicle-industry-issues/
Germany’s Energy Crucifixion: E-Mobility To Lead To “Even Higher Electricity Prices”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 14, 2017
Other Scientific News
Discovered: Novel group of giant viruses
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Apr 10, 2017
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Discovered_Novel_group_of_giant_viruses_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Contains an error in notation, the population of viruses is estimated to be about 10 to the 31st power.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
When Populism Falters and the Elite Strikes Back
Lessons from the history of failed rebellions against oligarchs
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Apr 13, 2017
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/douglas-carswells-rebel/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
April 1: Remembrance Day
By “William York” Quadrant, April 1, 2009 [H/t Tom Quirk]
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2009/04/letter-from-the-future/
Sink or …
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Apr 9, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/8024
“The idea was conceived by advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather, who were commissioned by banking giant HSBC to promote its £50million project tackling climate change.
“The Ogilvy team came up with an innovative way to show the adverse impact of global climate change. They glued an aerial view of a city to the base of a swimming pool. When the pool was filled with water, it gave a shocking effect akin to a city submerged in water.
“The visual of a sunken city shocked swimmers and onlookers, driving home the impact of global warming, and how it could destroy our world someday.”
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ARTICLES:
1. OPEC Production Keeps Declining as U.S. Shale Surges
By Benoit Faucon, WSJ, Via GWPF, Apr 13, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/opec-production-keeps-declining-as-u-s-shale-surges/
The reporter writes:
OPEC said Wednesday its output had kept falling in March as members tightened compliance to agreed cuts, but said U.S. producers were enjoying a revival thanks to higher oil prices.
The 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries committed last year to cut about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day in a bid to bring a vast global oversupply of crude back in line with demand and raise petroleum prices.
The agreement helped raise oil prices about 20% after it was announced on Nov. 30. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers also pledged to trim another 558,000 barrels a day.
In its closely watched monthly oil report, OPEC said its production decreased by 153,000 barrels a day to an average of 31.93 million barrels a day. The group uses independent experts—such as analysts and shipping trackers—to assess its output.
The decrease was largely driven by lower production in the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, respectively by 33,000 barrels a day and 26,000 barrels a day—which have both committed to reduce their output.
Saudi Arabia is producing below its quota of about 10 million barrels a day and supports an extension of the quotas.
But the group is still pondering how to deal with rising U.S. production, which is filling the vacuum left by its output curbs.
In its monthly report, OPEC raised its U.S. supply growth forecast by 200,000 barrels a day for 2017.
“’The number of drilling rigs and the reactivation of companies’ spending are the two most important factors leading to an expected output surge in the coming months.,’ it said. It cited a year-on-year increase in drilling rigs by 374 units to 824 rigs in the week of March 31.”
What Russia will do is a further complication to cartel.
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Stratospheric vortex affects the circulation in the troposphere. Ozone stratification in the stratosphere is similar to that of the upper tropospheric layers.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_50_nh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_250_nh_f00.png
Ardley Island, near the Antarctic Peninsula, is currently home to a population of around 5,000 pairs of gentoo penguins. Using new chemical analyses of penguin guano extracted in sediment cores from a lake on the island, the researchers unraveled the history of the penguin colony. Climate conditions around Ardley Island have been generally favourable for penguins over the last 7,000 years and the team had expected the local population to show minor fluctuations in response to changes in climate or sea ice. The surprising result was that the nearby Deception Island volcano had a far greater impact than originally anticipated.
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/penguin-colony-repeatedly-decimated-by-volcanic-eruptions/
Instead, the main driver of these penguin population changes is volcanism, with colony populations increasing during volcanically inactive periods and then experiencing abrupt catastrophic declines following major eruptions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14914
“About $50 to $55 per barrel.”
Crude oil should not be this expensive. The USA has been breaking records for commercial oil in storage every week for 2 years, now (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/). One thing I find interesting, there has been a change in verbiage, it started with the 19 Oct 2016 report, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2016/2016_10_19/pdf/highlights.pdf.
Compare it with the 13 Oct 2016 report, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2016/2016_10_13/pdf/highlights.pdf.
The change occurs in the 3rd paragraph.
Quite a change.
Here are the storage graphs.
Current week:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/figure1.pdf
Week of 13 Oct 16:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2016/2016_10_13/pdf/figure1.pdf
Week of 19 Oct 16
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2016/2016_10_19/pdf/figure1.pdf
If crude oil is too cheap, they stop drilling in the US. Is that what we want?
This is the first time we broke a record for commercial oil in storage.
The graph:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2013/2013_05_30/pdf/figure1.pdf
The report:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2013/2013_05_30/pdf/highlights.pdf
In the TRCS article it ends with
“based on the best long-term surface temperature data available. One must realize that the surface data has issues, such as human change in land use, influences by changes the oceans, changes in solar activity, etc”
Yes the surface data has issues, the largest of which is not mentioned. ie Adjustments and changes to the actual data and the methodologies for handling it.
On the other hand, the year-to-year temperature variability
is much larger in the Arctic than in the Antarctic stratosphere
(Randel 1988). This, again, is related to planetary
waves. Extreme wave breaking events—known as Stratospheric
Sudden Warmings—occur approximately every other
year in the Arctic (Charlton and Polvani 2007), but have only
occurred once in the Antarctic (Newman and Nash 2005).
These events greatly affect stratospheric temperatures and
transport, directly impacting ozone levels in springtime
(Tegtmeier et al 2008). Hence in Arctic winters with weak
wave driving and no sudden warmings, the stratosphere
becomes extremely cold and experiences reduced poleward
ozone transport, resulting in large observed springtime ozone
minima. The latest instance occurred in March 2011, when
Arctic ozone levels fell to their lowest recorded levels, on par
with levels observed in the Antarctic (Manney et al 2011).
This large interannual variability in Arctic ozone is
depicted in figure 1, which shows the seasonal cycle of the
mean (solid black line) and the range (gray shading) of total
column ozone in Dobson Units (DU), averaged over the
Arctic polar cap (60–90° N) and over the 1979–2011 period.
Note that the range of interannual variability is roughly 30%
of the 400 DU mean value in the month of March (see also
figure 1 of Müller et al 2008).
Whether this large year-to-year variability in Arctic
stratospheric ozone is able to affect the surface climate of the
Northern Hemisphere extratropics is currently unknown.
http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/smith+polvani-ERL-2014.pdf
Are these differences due to the difference in magnetic fields in the north and south?
Ozone as a diamagnetic reacts to the magnetic field.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Earth_s_magnetic_heartbeat
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2017.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_SH_2017.png
“declare victory” exactly. The scare is over. We will live brilliantly standing on our feet as free people. Debased politicians and their groveling sycophant scientists will not steal the promethean spark from us. Defund, delegitimize, and dump. The debate is truly over. We won.
Premature celebration. Liberals never give up.
For the first time in 10 years Haliburton is hireing workers all over Texas for oil well completion , fracking, even holding large job fairs in large cities
Doesn’t take an oracle… Our recent victories in the USA , so sweet, so long in coming will turn to ashes in our mouths if we lose either house of Congress in November 2018. We have taken the summit but those who were thrown down are mustering themselves to reclaim their high throne. History is replete with battles lost by victorious armies turned rabble to loot a fleeing foes rich baggage train.
To much bad alliteration for you. Get the point. We are in the exploitation phase of the battle against a much more powerful enemy. They are regrouping now. In the USA we need to strain every sinew to ride them down completing the job. Get engaged. Get involved on the ground. Help finish it.
Audit the data. Audit the adjustments. Urgent.
I am concerned that you are correct. I voted Republican to get Obamacare repealed. Hasn’t happened. Ryan came out with a Tweak Obamacare bill that failed. Trump ridiculed the Freedom Caucus, which stopped the hideous bill.
Not reassuring.
The mantis shrimp is a remarkable animal. Apparently it can withstand “ocean acidification”, although in the light of the known wide and rapid natural fluctuations in seawater pH, this ability is probably widespread among marine organisms:
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a16.php
Another impressive specification of the Mantis shrimp 🍤 is the possession by this little crustacean of no fewer than 16 color sensing retinal cone cells. 16! We humans have just 3 cones, so all the colors we see are just mixes of red, green and blue. People missing one cone type are seriously color-blind, seeing only a spectrum of red through brown to blue. Some exceptional humans – mostly women – are tetrachromic, with an extra cone type and deeper, wider color vision than the rest of us.
So one can only imagine the sensory riches conferred on the Mantis shrimp by its having 16 color cone types. Their vision extends onto both infrared and ultraviolet, with myriad shades in between too subtle for us but in plain view to the Mantis shrimp.
I’m not sure sending packets to teachers will ever be effective. Getting people on school boards and committees that will fight to have this information included by the school would probably be more effective. Teachers just do what they are told to do. The ones doing the telling are the ones to hit with this information.
Are there any papers / publications / code available for TRCS model?
Ha ha ha, the image of a city placed on the bottom of a swimming pool…. did no one at HSBC Bank ever hear of the ginormous movie flop-turkey called “Waterworld?” ha ha ha