The huge West Antarctic ice sheet would collapse completely if the comparatively small Amundsen Basin is destabilized, scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research find
Local destabilization can cause complete loss of West Antarctica’s ice masses
The huge West Antarctic ice sheet would collapse completely if the comparatively small Amundsen Basin is destabilized, scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research find. A full discharge of ice into the ocean is calculated to yield about 3 meters of sea-level rise. Recent studies indicated that this area of the ice continent is already losing stability, making it the first element in the climate system about to tip. The new publication for the first time shows the inevitable consequence of such an event. According to the computer simulations, a few decades of ocean warming can start an ice loss that continues for centuries or even millennia.
“What we call the eternal ice of Antarctica unfortunately turns out not to be eternal at all,” says Johannes Feldmann, lead author of the study to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). “Once the ice masses get perturbed, which is what is happening today, they respond in a non-linear way: there is a relatively sudden breakdown of stability after a long period during which little change can be found.”
“A few decades can kickstart change going on for millennia”
This is what is expressed by the concept of tipping elements: pushed too far, they fall over into another state. This also applies to, for instance, the Amazon rainforest, and the Indian Monsoon system. In parts of Antarctica, the natural ice-flow into the ocean would substantially and permanently increase.
Ocean warming is slowly melting the ice shelves from beneath, those floating extensions of the land ice. Large portions of the West Antarctic ice sheet are grounded on bedrock below sea level and generally slope downwards in an inland direction. Ice loss can make the grounding line retreat, thereby exposing more and more ice to the slightly warmer ocean water – further accelerating the retreat.
“In our simulations 60 years of melting at the presently observed rate are enough to launch a process which is then unstoppable and goes on for thousands of years,” Feldmann says. This would eventually yield at least 3 meters of sea-level rise. “This certainly is a long process,” Feldmann says. “But it’s likely starting right now.”
The greenhouse-gas emission factor
“So far we lack sufficient evidence to tell whether or not the Amundsen ice destabilization is due to greenhouse gases and the resulting global warming,” (Bold by WUWT) says co-author and IPCC sea-level expert Anders Levermann, also from the Potsdam Institute. “But it is clear that further greenhouse-gas emission will heighten the risk of an ice collapse in West Antarctica and more unstoppable sea-level rise.”
“That is not something we have to be afraid of, because it develops slowly,” concludes Levermann. “But it might be something to worry about, because it would destroy our future heritage by consuming the cities we live in – unless we reduce carbon emission quickly.”
###
Article: Feldmann, J., Levermann, A. (2015): Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS, Online Early Edition) [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1512482112]
Weblink to the article once it is published: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1512482112
Just plain silly.
Is their computer wind powered?
Their PR person is certainly hot air powered
Nothing to worry about, but let’s institute a draconian New World Order, just in case.
I wonder if they even cited any of the research showing that the WAIS is inherently unstable due to geothermal heating. Are they even aware of this fact or would that be considered blasphemy?
Or we could not destroy the economy, and if the sea level did rise the cities could gradually adapt through seawalls or other means over the course of the centuries that this model represents.
In a few thousand years, earth will probably be well on its way into the next glacial period deep freeze and our descendants will be looking for all the warming they can get.
As Paris approaches on the calendar the S/N ratio of reasoned science to climate hype approaches 0.
At least the Potsdam Institute read the memo to prepare for the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. Shame on NASA for not reading the memo.
Keep the cave tidy, our great, great, great grandchildren will need to live here too!
I’m sure there’s something dumb about this idea but I’ll put it out there anyway: Why don’t you take the difference in the sea level rise before and after 1950, multiply by the ocean surface area and then figure out the heat required to melt the associated ice into water? Then match to the corresponding CO2 difference to get the rate of doubling for “human” influenced warming. Maybe not the most intelligent method but hey I’ve seen worse….
Collapse of the WAIS is possible.
It just requires:
A) A molten underside due to volcanism.
B) A large shake du to an earthquake.
Neither is impossible. But they aren’t linked to AGW.
So let’s prepare for adaptation anyway. Cheap energy and strong economies for the whole world.
That’s the prudent course.
no one seems to be noticing except Goddard again.. that BOTH icecaps are increasing pretty dramatically
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
At least the recent NASA study made it onto the Telegraph on-line edition. See
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11970682/NASA-reveals-that-Antarctica-is-actually-gaining-ice.html
What is needed is for someone to point out that according to the satellite data there has been no statistically significant warming of Antarctica throughout the entire record (about 36 years)!
O/T but in view of Paris, it will be interesting to see the October update for the satellite data. Obviously, the land based thermometers will show that it is the warmest year ever (on record), but the satellite data is likely to paint a different picture especially if the present Strong El Nino has yet to have a significant impact on Southern Hemisphere average.
ROFLOL….. ” and MORE unstoppable sea level rise”. Just what does that mean other than Alarmist drivel? Who knows what technology man will have a thousand years from now if the Progressives/Dems/Catastrophists don’t bring an end to good science. Besides, the odds are extremely low they have enough information and understand this complex process enough to make more than a biased WAG at will happen 1000 years from now.
We shouldn’t be afraid of space monsters either, but it might be something to worry about because they could destroy our planet with some type of advanced weaponry. Ya never know. Better safe than sorry.
Would it be better to collect data for a better understanding for the money spent on this simulation. ??
It seems there is nobody who will tell him that this is ridiculous.
What ocean warming, there is none? I can fib too and quote Arctic ice had been melting due to cooling oceans around the area.
http://i772.photobucket.com/albums/yy8/SciMattG/UAH_AntarcticOceanTemps_zpsyk6tsbmm.png
Most ocean temperatures surrounding Antarctica are showing well below normal.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-151101.gif
Oh dear, the most reliable Antarctic ocean temperatures show no warming for many years. Hence, global warming that has failed to do so with observed data, without deliberate tampering has had no affect on Antarctic Circumpolar Current. (ACC)
Real observations don’t count though, it’s only what the model shows obviously because we don’t do any science. If we actually did science then we would have to show that it doesn’t support our ridiculously alarmist claims and never has.
Our simulations mean absolutely nothing because we don’t have a clue how the climate will behave here and have been showing we are wrong all the time. We have to use a model because it doesn’t support scientific method and we want to continue the non-science in climate pseudoscience.
Just what is the temperatures around the ice shelf? They keep saying the ocean are warming and melting the glaciers, but what is the temperature of the water around there? I highly doubt it has gotten so warm as to melt anything.
They always advocate reducing CO2 emissions, but not for themselves.
This is beyond silly. Basic geology. The WAIS is divided into several geological ‘ice sheds’. Some are anchored by mountains and going no where, since far too cold to melt. Others slope to the sea with some ice creep. The two big ones are Ross and Ronne. Both know known to be stable (ANDRILL looked at Ross in detail). The ‘little’ one is the Amundsen Embayment. And there, only two of 6 sea reaching glaciers (PIne Island and Thwaites) are shedding net ice, althoughnthe amount is in dispute. Even Rignots most recent JPL/NASA alarm paper about them loosing 400Gt/ year (4x all previous estimates) showed the higher interior of the Embayment is stable to gaining ice mass. Discussed with references in essay Tipping Points.
They really NEED a psychiatrist.
Ha ha
We will not debate, we will not be challenged! But nature is so stubborn it doesn’t bother to listen to them. Pity that it will take about 20 more years for their malfeasance and stupidity to become commonly known. But I sorely hope that in 100 years time some history major digs through these articles and demonstrates to our descendants how incredibly stupid, corrupted, fraudulent they were being and better yet let the greatest idiots of these be remember throughout history as just that.
Let’s see, a 3m sea level rise in how many years? Thousands? 3mm per year times 1000 years would be about 3m. But they say “thousands”, with an “s”. So sea level rise will actually slower than now. Anyway, my home is at 13 feet above sea level or 3.96m so I and my 50+ generations are safe.
They know the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is “perturbed” because they read it on it’s facebook page (which, coincidentally, is managed by William “The Stoat” Connally)..
The run-up to Paris is really bringing the crazy out of the woodwork.
This article is full of BS, and can be proven with data.