Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record
From the GWPF
The Met Office has defended its forecast for a hot, dry summer despite some areas looking set to have the most rain since records began. As summer officially came to a close amid extreme downpours on Monday, the forecaster was left facing questions about why it predicted a ‘drier-than-average’ season even though a strong El Nino climate event was expected. In May the Met Office said that it ‘wouldn’t expect (El Nino) to be the dominant driver of our weather’ in the summer months. Yet this weekend Met Office chief scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo said that the El Nino phenomenon had disturbed weather patterns, which might have been predicted. “We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done.”–Sarah Knapton, The Daily Telegraph, 31 August 2015
The Met Office’s prediction for the summer issued at the start of June led us all to believe it would be hot and dry. Instead, it has been one of the coldest and soggiest holiday seasons for nearly 30 years. The level of rainfall was already up 13% on average across Britain by last Wednesday, at 11in. It means it has been wetter than all but five summers since 1988 and the wettest since 2012 – which was the soggiest for 100 years. At the same time, temperatures have fallen to an average of 14C, which is 0.4C down on normal. It means it has been colder than all but four summers since 1988 and the coldest since 2012’s average of 13.9C. –Alistair Grant, Daily Star, 30 August 2015
The chief reason why the Met Office has been getting so many forecasts spectacularly wrong, as reported here ad nauseam, is that all its short, medium and long-term forecasts ultimately derive from the same huge computer model, which is programmed to believe in manmade global warming. Hence the fun we’ve all had with those “barbecue summers” when rain never stopped, and “warmer than average” winters, which promptly saw Britain freezing under piles of snow. –Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, 30 August 2015
In September 2008, the Met Office forecast a trend of mild winters: the following winter turned out to be the coldest for a decade. Then its notorious promise of a ‘barbecue summer’ was followed by unrelenting rain. Last year, it forecast a ‘drier than average’ spring — before another historic deluge that was accompanied by the coldest temperatures for 50 years. Never has the Met Office had more scientists and computing power at its disposal — yet never has it seemed so baffled by the British weather. But there is no paradox. It is precisely the power of this technology in harnessing climate scientists’ assumptions about global warming that has scuppered the Met Office’s predictions — and made it a propagandist for global warming alarmism. It has become an accomplice to a climate change agenda that now affects where and how we travel, the way houses are built, the lights we read by. And its errors are no laughing matter to tourism industry chiefs in Cornwall and the north-west, who say the Met Office’s false warnings of dire summers cost hundreds of millions of pounds in cancelled bookings. –Rupert Darwall, The Spectator, 13 July 2013
Another Bank Holiday, another washout! It was not meant to be like this! Back in 2006, climate genius David Viner told us: Climate change could “dramatically” change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say. Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said. Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced the report after analysing the work of experts around the globe. “The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages,” the study said. Apparently nobody thought to tell the tourists! –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of PPeople Know That, 31 August 2015
A decade ago, Hurricane Katrina slammed Florida and then the Gulf Coast, creating a humanitarian catastrophe in New Orleans. While memories of that devastation remain vivid, there would be 16 more named storms before that year was out, more than in an entire typical Atlantic hurricane season. The record level of activity in 2005 exhausted the traditional alphabetic list of names, ushering in Alpha through Zeta. It might seem disasters on the ground would become financial ones for companies that shoulder those risks. But, if anything, the opposite is true. —Spencer Jakab, The Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2015
European Union bureaucrats sank more than £10 million into subsiding television shows last year, it was revealed yesterday. The money went to make programmes promoting the merits of the EU and warning of the dangers of climate change as well as to support popular series that are already highly successful. A number of the subsidised programmes have been seen on British television – and one, The Great European Disaster Movie, was broadcast by the BBC to widespread derision from critics. Other shows backed by Brussels included one in which a climate change activist searches the world for ways to save the planet. –Steve Doughty, Daily Mail, 1 September 2015

Perhaps they have dismissed too many carbon based life-forms.
“We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done.”
…but the science of forecasting decades or centuries ahead is settled.
I need a large grant so I can study why Nature refuses to cooperate with the Met Office Stupor Computer. I’ll call myself a climate communicator and attempt to convince Nature that she/he/it is a deniar because 97% of 33% of scientists think she/he/it isn’t behaving as predicted, projected, prophesied.
What is there “batting average”? Seems to me about .080.
I gather that the embarrassment over climate is not confined to our Met Office, The UK News reported today that President Obama is going trekking in Alaska with Bear Grylls, which is being turned into a TV programme to highlight climate change. No doubt judicious editing will be used to make sure that snow and blizzards are not seen!
Back to our national embarrassment, the Met Office, the BBC will not use them any more for their weather forecasts because they are so inaccurate. Meanwhile Piers Corbyn (Jeremy’s brother) is putting in a bid to take over the weather forecasting for the BBC with his “Weather Action” company. Piers Corbyn on the other hand totally disagrees with the principle of AGW, and believes that solar output has more effect on our climate than CO2.To cap all of the, Julia Slingo was made a Dame in the New Years Honours List.
Personally I think the Monty Python team would do better than the Met Office, but I think Weather Action should be given the contract.
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/why-has-politics-got-in-the-way-of-science/
“The AGW scenario is an excellent example of an unintended consequence of setting up intergovernmental bodies outside the political checks and balances of the system of Representative Democracy that has served western civilisation and most other civilisations (if indirectly) very well over the past 500 years.
Bodies such as the IPCC should be consultative only. They are not qualified to make accurate scientific judgements without independent overview and are not qualified to make policy decisions without deferring to proper elected authority yet they are trying to do both.
The IPCC could be said to be in breach of it’s own obligations in taking an inappropriate view of it’s own power and significance and to have acted irresponsibly by accepting the encouragement and support of third party interests seeking to gain from that breach of duty.”
Just more evidence of climate change.
/sarc
When you though hundreds of millions of $ at black it turns white
“We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done.”
Except in the the field of global warming doom and gloom, where it is spot on.
Why oh why did my parents teach me to never lie about anything? I could have been a wealthy ( but sleepless, although I guess I could then lie myself to sleep) person years ago
I can tell you their forecast for the summer of 2016 – Hotter and Dryer
They have to forecast that, “weather” they believe it or not, to keep the hoax alive.
Their forecasts are completely consistent with the models
I doubt anyone died because of the Met Office forecast. It’s all just for fun, like the Farmers’ Almanac.
A lot of talk here, but very little detail about what the Met Office actually said. The reports seem to be based on the contingency forecast, which seems quite cautious.
Last paragraph, first line: “subsidizing” [or “subsidising”] not “subsiding”
The Wild Proofreader Strikes Again. The spell-check program does not like “subsidising.” I don’t either, to be honest.
Speaking of GWPF, has any more been heard of this major inquiry? The web site doesn’t seem to have changed since April.
It’s all down to the Sun, my solar based LRF has been performing very well. Third comment down:
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/04/13/more-warm-weather-this-week-but-whats-in-store-for-the-summer/#comments
Thank God James Stagg didn’t have a super computer when he was advising Eisenhower on the weather for D-Day.
Please remember that we Brits know how to read our Met offices long range forecasts , that are absolutely right practically all of the time , ITS GOING TO BE THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY SAY !!! it will be chaos if they started being right – we just would not know what to do then !!!!
Britain would do well to step around the venerable old public institutions and go with what works in a more competitive framework, even it it means paying for both for a time. You may actually find it saves money in the process of realizing quality gains. The U.S. examples are a little different. NPR is small compared to BBC influence but the current backing away from cable monopolies, Detroit big three autos, and MSM news outlets in the regulated private space are also somewhat analogous. The choice among weather forecast groups is also wider.
In most of the northern hemisphere, summer officially comes to a close on September 23 this year.
But here’s the rub!
The Met Office 3-month outlook at the end of May (and again at end of July) said:
However, El Niño is not known to have a significant influence on the climate across northern Europe at this time of year.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/08/29/slingo-making-it-up-as-she-goes-along/
So it appears that Slingo was just making it up as she goes along.
Science is going down a hole, and that is the real reason I love this site. WUWT shines the ugly white light on the descent. If your premise is wrong – your science is wrong. God spare us from this broken paradigm. Flush it down the toilet and let’s start all over again.
Gary,
Yes.
And the reason some of the publically prominent members of the climate science community picked the wrong premise is ultimately much more damning and destructive than the wrong premise itself.
John
Yes, I live in the UK and have first hand experience of all this rain. I have constantly been mowing the lawn and it is still as lush and verdant as it was in Spring. Normally at this time of year it resembles so much Shredded Wheat and the mower is complaining of boredom not overwork.
We have had more rain than when rain began let alone bloody records!!!