From the “30 years are part of a cycle” department:
Experts express concern over cyclone trends in the British-Irish Isles
By studying climate data in the British-Irish Isles over a 142-year period, researchers have confirmed the important role of cyclones. Seasonal precipitation totals were strongly related to cyclone frequency, especially during summer.
The researchers found that relative to the 1961-1990 period, summers have become much wetter and more cyclonic. The move towards wetter summers in recent years is more of a re-establishment of conditions typical of the earlier half of the 20th Century rather than being unusual in the long term.
Recent years have seen three of the stormiest seasons on record, however. The summer of 2012 was the “stormiest” since at least 1871.
“Given concern over increased British-Irish Isles storminess as the climate warms, there is a need to understand the extent to which these changes may already be underway,” said Dr. Tom Matthews, lead author of the International Journal of Climatology study. “By providing a 142-year regional cyclone climatology, this study allows recent extreme seasonal storminess to be placed in context. Such a long-term perspective is needed to explore variability in the regional storm climate and to diagnose and understand emerging changes.”
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Bumbershoot!
Blathershite!
BULLL shiese
Dolts.
The climate soothsayers are once again running amok, in league with the druids..
Just. Can’t. Help. Themselves. Sigh.
blah, blah, blah, climate worry, doom, and gloom, 15 seconds of fame, grave pronouncements, peer-reviewed!, exit stage left, . . . Next up!
Next up?
By Sarah Knapton, “Science” Editor
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11721499/British-barbecue-summer-to-be-norm-by-end-of-century.html
Very cold winters such as the one that occurred in 2009/10 become almost non-existent. The chance of experiencing one of these is less than 1 per cent by the end of the century.
Lead scientist Dr David
VinerSexton“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
I wonder how much a warm sweater will cost in 2100?
What utter nonsense. No one knows what the future climate will be, least of all these idiots.
Climate models have their uses, but they have zero predictive skill.
Anyone who claims to know what the climate will be in 50 or 100 years is either a fool or is trying to scare us – or, most probably, both.
Chris
British-Irish Isles? When did that name start?
After a few jars of Irish ales?
Guinness Extra Stout
The Irish consider their home to be THE Isle. England is…that other annoying place that won’t leave Ireland alone.
I agree, there is no such thing as ‘Irish Isles’. I’m going to guess that the author is Irish, or needs treatment.
I wouldn’t have thought anyone Irish would even – –
You never heard ‘when Irish Isles are smiling, all the world seems hot and fey…’ ?
Could be Bri-ish Isles or maybe Ibrish Isles.
It’s when doing surveys and they want my nationality and the option is UK I put British.
Awkward so and so me.
James Bull
Me too.
But Bri’ish is just pure Glasgow.
I put English.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles
The British Isles are a group of islands off the north-western coast of continental Europe that consist of the islands of Great Britain, Ireland and over six thousand smaller isles.[5] Two sovereign states are located on the islands: Ireland (a republic whose territory covers roughly five-sixths of the island with the same name)[6] and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (which includes the constituent countries of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
I think if Europeans started calling the North American continent the ‘North America and Canadian continent’ just to please the French speakers in Quebec, our friends in the good ol’ USofA might think we’d gone slightly daft.
Well, there’s Mexamerica….
: > )
Sorry bloke but wrong analogy. Nobody objects to the adjective European which is the same as American in your analogy. Describing Ireland as ‘British’ is as wrong as it is insulting. After 700 years of killing, starving, dis possessing and pillorying the Irish surely we deserve a break from your ‘British’ depredations?
hoplite, you should understand that Ireland was always ‘British’. British people colonised it 8-10,000 years ago – it was a short boat trip away from the ‘mainland’. We weren’t responsible for the potato famine, either. The situation was exacerbated by the inaction of British government though.
Big Jim don’t know what history books you’ve been reading! Celts were the inhabitants of all of Western Europe eight to ten thousand years ago. Britain was indeed Celtic until the Anglo Saxons changed that with Celts remaining in Wales, Scotland and south western areas. In that sense Ireland has more claim on Britain than other way round! Romans previously didn’t invade Ireland either so our histories were different there too. The only admixture to our Irish Celtic blood was the Vikings and Normans. The English were invited to assist in a local dispute in 1170something and didn’t leave 26 of the 32 counties for nearly 700 years! In terms of lost colonies you’re pining for, I’d suggest you have a stronger claim on the ‘Britishness’ of the United States of America. Good luck with that!!
We could call North America, Mexiameriada or MexiAmeriCan.
The Grant application specifically said you have to BS and mention a warming climate -Thus – “Seasonal precipitation totals were strongly related to cyclone frequency, especially during summer.”
Frauds,lies and thefts. Anything for a grant buck!
The climate seems to be changing in a direct correlation to the dollar value of grant funding. This deserves some research!
But, but, but, but:
Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
And devastating rains such as in Britain’s worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead.
Work by the Met Office has calculated the odds of particular weather scenarios striking in future years.
The computer simulations-based study, in journal Nature Climate Change, finds that milder winters and drier summers will also become more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33417413
Paris is coming don’t ya know
‘Scorching summers….set to become more common’. I wish!
Stormiest since 1871…so….its been Stormier in the past. Folks.. You must learn your history, to understand the present.
The record of cyclone frequency only begins in 1871, according to the paper’s abstract: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4425/abstract
2012 was the stormiest in the record. Whether it was stormier or not in the past isn’t known.
Ian
To do that one could do worse than reading Hubert Lambs book ‘Historic storms of the British Isles and North West Europe’ that goes back to the 1500’s. John Kington also of CRU has produced an epic book ‘Climate and Weather’ which looks at each decade back to the 1300’s.
It is evident that storminess and almost every other type of weather type goes in phases. My own research using the Met Office archives illustrates the wild fluctuations in climate over the centuries with rains and storms probably being the most dominant feature.
On the whole. the last century has had pretty benign weather and at some point that is going to revert to some of the other types we can observe over the centuries.
tonyb
What about the one that the Armada hit?
Then there is the June storm that delayed D-Day followed a few weeks later by another storm that wrecked one of the Mulberry harbours. That’s two major storms in the Summer 70 years ago.
its been Stormier in the past.
not after ‘adjustments’
It is great when you can keep rewriting history to make your claims of the present and future seem like that not really a pile of BS .
Yes indeed Ian. Here’s an account of the great storm of Jan. 1839, in Ireland. It was known as the ‘night of the big wind’ http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/jan1839_storm.pdf
We get plenty of storms here, some quite nasty, but compared to what’s happened in the past, we’ve seen worse.
Eamon.
Have to try for tomorrow, was up too early to get the car to Columbus for service and we are both hitting bed early.
Sent from my iPad
>
“summers have become much wetter”
One summer was much wetter, 2012, otherwise it’s very similar to the last time the AMO was warm. Summer 2012 had deep negative NAO, such episodes will increase through this solar minimum.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/actualmonthly/14/Rainfall/UK.gif
The drier 1960 to 2000 (not 1990) period was due to poleward shifting jets caused by the active sun so that summers were indeed less stormy than before and since.
The driest period beginning in 1975 and ending 1995 represents the so called great climate shift of the mid 1970s which clearly went into reverse more recently.
I have been saying for years that I first noticed the jets start moving equatorward again in 2000 and that is borne out by Ulric’s chart.
The more equatorward trend correlates with lower solar activity.
The writers of the paper should study the work of Hubert Lamb instead of following the blinkered AGW mantra.
Let’s see what for a long time happening over the North Atlantic.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-41.22,72.67,454
Pressure anomaly is visible in the stratosphere, which has an effect on pressure in the troposphere (also visible).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2015.gif
As the North Atlantic Oscillation grew positive, storms were pushed northward and Norway’s glacers grew. AS the NAO goes negative the storms will move equator ward. I suspect the ITCZ and thus center of the HAdley circulation is involved in the location of the jets that drive the storm track.
The ITCZ moves poleward toward the warmer pole, it moves poleward in the hemisphere with the greatest
insolation as seen by its seasonal movements and the shifts due orbital precession. And it moves northward during La NInas.
With decreasing insolation from weakening solar output and a trend back to more El Ninos and a negative PDO, the ITCZ and storm tracks should continue to move equator ward. And based on the relationship with past ocean heat transport, less tropical waters will be transported poleward.
A cooler north Atlantic, a less northerly storm track, and reduced winter westerlies from a negative NAO, I would suspect Great Britain is in for some rather bitter stormy winters
jim Steele said:
“With decreasing insolation from weakening solar output and a trend back to more El Ninos and a negative PDO, the ITCZ and storm tracks should continue to move equator ward. And based on the relationship with past ocean heat transport, less tropical waters will be transported poleward.”
The AMO remained largely in a warm mode through the Gleissberg solar Minimum of the 1880/1890’s. It cooled when solar activity levels picked up again. The mid 1970’s AMO cooling shows you which solar metric is the dominant forcing variable, and conversely the AMO warming since the mid 1990’s:
http://snag.gy/fjGhc.jpg
From this it follows that larger impact on climate can have force of the solar wind (solar protons) and galactic radiation. The solar wind definitely affect to pressure changes over the magnetic poles.
AO is clearly negative.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.obs.gif
I was looking at NAO&AO going negative into July. Third comment down:
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/04/13/more-warm-weather-this-week-but-whats-in-store-for-the-summer/#comments
AO is clearly negative.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.obs.gif
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=01&startmonth=04&startyear=2015&starttime=00%3A00&endday=07&endmonth=07&endyear=2015&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
Please fit the data to moving average — 10 years, 33 years, 66 years — to get the correct cyclic pattern. Here we must not forget the fact that prior to 1957 the unit of measurement of rainfall is in inches and from 1957 on wards it is in millimeters.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Who gave you that graph? You’re not allowed to present denialist graphs of real unadjusted data.
How are we supposed to trick everyone into believing that recent rainfall has been exceptional, if you can run a quick search through Google images and find graphs of the real Met Office data. Graphs that could tell everyone quite plainly that nothing of any significance has occurred.
And then, seeing this, people may suddenly begin to suspect that, for example, the worsening Somerset floods in the years after 2000 really were caused by the suspension of maintenance and dredging works in the early 1990’s.
And if people figure out that the flooding was caused by the interference of the eco-meddlers, then they will figure out that the eco-meddlers are a bunch of malevolent imbeciles, who crave catastrophe. Often because they can use catastrophe to promote their own agenda and careers.
And it seems that they will create catastrophes, even if their are none to be found.
Luckily for the alarmists, most of the British public are never going to see that graph. The BBC aren’t going to let them see it. Nor are the Guardian.
If it ever did receive significant circulation, then alarmists would have to smear it as having been manufactured by a Big Oil funded disinformation campaign. (satire of sorts)
I live just outside Glastonbury on the Somerset Levels, we got the story in the local news:
http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Flooding-Levels-deliberate-policy-EA-document/story-20604863-detail/story.html
Glastonbury has unfortunately recently acquired a green majority council and green mayor, who have titled themselves as high ranking Bards and Druids, though their cider drenched esoteric rituals to heal mother Earth from bum vibes and bad energies show them to be squarely Cards and Brewids. And they are teaming up with MEP Molly Scott Cato with hopes to ration the southwest electricity by 40%, fill the air with dioxins etc from burning biomass, and fill the air with diesel fumes transporting the biomass in lorries on our roads. Completely eco-unconscious.
http://mollymep.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-power-to-transform-the-South-West_FINAL1.pdf
Trying to discuss energy policy with this bunch is near impossible. The mayor simply said “I don’t have time for this shit”, the rest just lie about the need for transition, denigrate you with an emotional projection, then stonewall you.
The graph source:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
@ulriclyons
I just read this in your pdf link “For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1200Wm2”
It’s be a long time since I worked on satellites, but that’s about the number we used for solar panels…. in orbit. You won’t ever get 1200 w/m2 on the ground. Maybe that is an average w/m^2/day number? I couldn’t tell.
My take…too many people heard the old saw “everybody complains about the weather, but no one does anything about it” a little bit too literally.
According to ships logs the eastern Atlantic was most stormy in the Little Ice Age and according to records about the settlement of the Western Isles of Scotland it was least stormy in the Mediaeval Warming Period.
The authors of the paper have come to precisely the opposite conclusion to the truth because they uncritically accept AGW dogma about a warmer world being stormier.
The temperature differential across the middle latitudes determines storminess and that differential is greatest in cooling periods because the jets then move equatorward across those latitudes and polar air mixes more freely with equatorial air.
To explain it all one must first ascertain the cause of latitudinal jet stream and climate zone shifting. That appears to be related to solar activity levels and not our CO2 emissions.
agreed.
Stephen,
You said,
“The authors of the paper have come to precisely the opposite conclusion to the truth because they uncritically accept AGW dogma about a warmer world being stormier.”
I don’t have a problem accepting this since warmer temperatures mean more evaporation which means more rain and if rain increases, storminess increases. However, they also say more cold and more drought will result too, so its easy to doubt the credibility of all their claims.
They need a kernel of truth somewhere so that they can sucker the masses into believing the remaining lies and this is one. My favorite disinformational truth is that 97% of scientists believe that CO2 emissions have a finite effect on the climate since the debate is about the size of this effect not whether or not the effect is zero.
It’s all “bollocks”: complete “bollocks” !
They are on the Great Global Warming “research” Gravy Train: they’ve also been given their £97,000,000- super-dooper-weather-computer (paid for by our tax monies last year) and they can’t even forecast the weather for next Monday, never mind long term perspectives !
WL
I thought that high pressure systems produce calm dry and warm weather. High pressure systems in U.K. are referred to as cyclonic systems because they rotate in a clock-wise direction. Cyclonic weather is therefore warm and dry. How have these researchers conclude that cyclonic weather is going to be colder and wetter?
I think you might be applying a southern hemisphere perspective to the UK. Winds in a cyclone blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Read more: http://www.scienceclarified.com/Co-Di/Cyclone-and-Anticyclone.html#ixzz3fBcOF8Al
Umm no, here in the south the good weather is produced by anticyclones, These rotate in an anticlockwise direction. The opposite occurs in the north i.e. cyclones produce good weather.
Cyclones are low pressure systems and rotate in an anti-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. They are usually associated with wet stormy weather. Anti-cyclones are high pressure systems which usually bring calm, warm weather. They rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere.
… and which bright spark invented a new name for our islands ?
For Dog Sake … it’s the British Isles !
WL
HA!! Up Ireland!
Evidently that is no longer p.c.
Just another catostrophic alarmist bell ringing, to add to the list leading up to the Paris stitch up.
Oh and he forgot the children.
Weren’t storms particularly bad for the British Isles during the Little Ice Age?
So how will these idiots explain the “greater storminess” of British weather, now that records show there has been no warming for over 18 years?
Alarmists know that they don’t need to explain it.
All that they have to do, is keep drawing people’s attention to every event in the changeable British weather and credit “climate change” as being responsible for everything that happens.
Sadly people are already inclined to locate patterns and trends in random variability.
Sadly people are already inclined to misattribute perceived patterns to a grand scheme.
And even more sadly, people are inclined to trust anyone who presents as a “scientific expert”.
Most people think that they have experienced climate change induced “extreme weather” personally or at least seen it on the news.
I’m not sure how it would be possible to set about liberating them from such a delusion.
Not when “science” is on the side of promoting the delusion.
Much wetter, more cyclonic BBQ summers. Am I missing something here?
In which case we’d better stop wasting cash on megawatt IBM pig iron for Slingo to warm the environs of Exeter and start getting sensible about repairing our crumbling sea defences. According to the pre-core-shun-harry principle anyway.
“When I talk to people, they remember the hot summer of 2003 or the wet winter of 2013-14 and they know they were extreme seasons”. Try 1947 and 1963 – before you were born was it?
In 1947 we had metres of snow in S. Scotland and I was off school for 6 weeks due to blocked roads.
(You just can’t win.)
Sheesh! What rot! This “study” is suitable for filing in the bin…nothing less! People are getting all out of joint in the UK at the moment with Wimbledon and high temperatures. Sure, on the central court the temperature is high (More fool them for playing a stressful game in SUMMER) but regional temperatures, albeit warm, are not unusual for an English summer. 1976 was hotter!
Stressful weather is the best time to play elite level tennis. Played in more comfortable conditions, the damn games might last 6 or 8 hours. I love playing tennis and watching a good match is great fun, but powerful racquets result in people only willing (or able) to go baseline to baseline- so little finesse and almost complete destruction of the serve and volley game make it too much like a soccer (nee football) match for my taste. Maybe they should bring back wooden racquets for anyone ranked in the top-20?
Beach volleyball is another game best played in hot, stressful weather. Totally different reasons, of course.
Beach volleyball is another game best played in hot, stressful weather. Totally different reasons, of course.
Thankfully so, I’d hate to watch beach volleyball in December!
I watch tennis only when the William’s girls play. Sorry, but that is my excuse and I am sticking to it!
Shades of the sixties when the top players served and ran right up to the net to smash the return. Watched Laver do it many times. It was the style of play back then and much more compelling.
1976 was freezing cold here in North America. Brrr. Even in July. Many storms. I work out of doors and remember that year very well, couldn’t complete a day’s work due to storms roaring through like clockwork!
I wonder if there is a “cycle” in the record?
Excuse me, it is the British Isles. It is the name for he archipelago. All residents, English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Manx etc. are British, it being a geographical term..
Does that include the Channel Islands?
British Isles to become more weathier!
Grant money now with cyclonic action.
It would help if the researchers look at the map, the British Isles are not in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it appears they have never heard of 60 year natural cycles in the North Atlantic.
100%
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/E1.gif
Graph shows direct link between sunspot cycles and the quasi-periodic oscillations in the North Atlantic. Solar activity induces (most likely via geomagnetic storms) geomagnetic oscillations, which in turn synchronise ~ 60 year cycles.
Note that the AMO’s ~60 year peaks are coincident with every third odd sunspot cycle, while the AMO troughs are synchronised with every third even sunspot cycle. Since length of the sunspot cycles varies between 9+ and 11+, result is not fixed periodicity oscillation but a quasi-periodic cycle.
I’m still waiting for the heat wave! All we seem to get is cloud, rain, and the odd sunny interval. Oh, we did have a nice day last week! Temperature reached 21C with sun all day. As I type I can see a small patch of blue through the clouds. Promising anyway.
http://www.milfordweather.org.uk/atmospheric.asp