Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
I ran across that headline in Google News today. With the thought, what animals would I like to see go extinct first due to climate change? I had great hopes for the answer.
Sadly, the linked article here at NationalGeographic.com was an introductory alarmist blurb about the 2015 paper by Mark C. Urban Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. As they note in the NationalGeographic article:
Mark Urban, an associate professor of ecology at the University of Connecticut, found that so many studies [about species extinction] used so many different methods that scientists could point to whichever ones confirmed their points of view.
“Depending on what study you looked at, you could come up with an overly pessimistic or optimistic view,” he says.
Hmm. That’s climate science in a nutshell.
But Urban was not satisfied. As the NationalGeographic article continued:
To try to sort it out, Urban reviewed 131 extinction studies and used computer models and other statistical techniques to combine their data into one global estimate.
We can toss away that study, of course, because it relies on climate models, and the studies it studied had to have relied on climate models.
My hoped-for answer to the title question of What Animals Are Likely to Go Extinct First Due to Climate Change? was somewhat different.
The animals I was hoping would go extinct first were the science-funds leeches who waste valuable tax dollars on nonsensical studies that rely on climate models, which are not simulations of climate on this Earth as it has existed in the past, or as it exists now, or as it might exist in the future.
ADDITIONAL READING
The fact that climate models are not simulations of Earth’s climate was first introduced to the general public in the 2007 blog post Predictions of Climate by Kevin Trenberth at Nature.com. He wrote:
…none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.
In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models.
Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors.
The following are a collection of blog posts that illustrate how poorly climate models simulate surface temperatures, precipitation, and sea ice.
- Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperatures as anomalies
- Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperatures in absolute form
- Global Surface Temperatures (Land+Ocean) Since 1880 as anomalies
- Global Surface Temperatures (Land+Ocean) Since 1880 in absolute form
- Global Precipitation
- Global Land Precipitation & Global Ocean Precipitation
- Sea Ice
We also discussed and illustrated climate models and the modes of natural variability called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the post Questions the Mainstream Media Should Be Asking the IPCC.
As I’ve noted numerous time in the past, climate models at present have no value other than to illustrate how poorly they perform.
Where are the bodies? Why is it that alarmists get away with ignoring that extinction is evolution in action?
The BODIES are either eaten by predators or are being used as the foundation for Climate Change Catastrophes, (or are being consumed by climate scientists so that their bones can be used as the foundation for Climate Change Catastrophes)
Most of them are lying below wind turbines and solar cookers.
The bodies are hidden in the deep oceans and will return with greater intensity after the pause in extinctions ends.
Well my favorite animal species is almost extinction proof.
You could kill every one of them that exists on planet earth today (I mean kill them all today), and anywhere else they may exist, and that would include killing all of the ones that may currently be in gestation, so that they are never to be born alive, and that would pretty much do them in I would think,
But no such luck; within 20-25 years there would be just as many of them on earth as there are now.
So what is this super survivor; a common animal of great utility; the mule.
But I would suggest that we don’t kill any of them.
G
aah a mule, the poor animal. In my country I see it being used in the most cruel ways. To carry heavy loaded carts, people and what not. I guess that is why they”d have stronger survival instincts. But George, why do you believe that it will never get extinct?
Simply, The Mule is the hybrid Offspring of a Horse and a Donkey. Once they are all gone, You simply cross breed more
Ayesha,
Is there any chance you are thinking of donkeys?
As for mules, gosh they are fascinating creatures! As I understand it, lots of horse people who get a mule never go back. Smart, inquisitive, friendly, helpful, large, powerful, cute as all heck … what’s there not to love?
They’re like the dog of equines.
Yes Ayesha, Mules are the best ride, especially if your back is sensitive, in the rocky terrains of mountainous areas. Good mules out of calm and intelligent horse and strong, subservient donkey stock are highly prized among equestrians. I don’t suppose you watch RFDTV?
And Max, the “dog” of the horse world is the mini.
Just for some hillbilly fun, who knows the difference between hay and straw?
@max yes, I was thinking about the donkey.
@Bryan And of course you’re right that mule is a hybrid. But what if the horses and donkeys start getting extinct? There will be no breeds to cross, no mules ultimately…
Dawtgtomis,
That’s an interesting question. I know the difference because I’ve been around horses, but I pilfered this explanation as an expedient.
* * * * *
Both straw and hay can be called “forage” but there’s an important distinction between the two.
Straw is a by-product of seed (or grain) production. For example, a farmer who grows wheat will harvest the grain; the dry plant that remains after harvest is straw. The same applies to grass seed farmers in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, which is a major source of turf seed used on lawns and sports fields around the world.
Hay is grown specifically, and it’s cut before the plant goes to seed. Because the plant pumps nutrients into the seed or grain, hay will have more nutrients than straw. Although dairy farmers and cattle ranches typically buy on the basis of protein, everyone recognizes the value of fiber, of which hay and straw provide a lot.
Examples of exported straw include fescue and ryegrass, and exported hays include alfalfa and timothy. Some forages, like sudangrass, are available in both hay and straw.
what is more alarming is the fact that there are so many field experiments that scientists pick and choose the ones the feel is the best way to prove their hypothesis. But this has always been the way of science and psychology, they try to pass out meta narratives and absolutes. Sometimes this leads me into believing that science maybe more of a personal thought process than the immaculate and objective data we believe it to be.
Oh and never question a scientist, if they say that yellow footed rock wallaby is at risk, we will already just put a rest in peace message over it’s grave stone, and get over with it.
http://www.ayeshajamal.com
I always felt that modern climate science reminded me of something I’d read before, and I finally found it when I re-read Asimov’s “Foundation” series. It was a scene involving a patrician from the Empire in its collapse, and he discussed his view of science:
[Salvor Hardin, of the Foundation]:”Then why rely on him? Why not go to Arcturus and study the remains for yourself?”
Lord Dorwin raised his eyebrows and took a pinch of snuff hurriedly. “Why, whatevah foah, my deah fellow?”
“To get the information firsthand, of course.”
“But wheah’s the necessity? It seems an uncommonly woundabout and hopelessly wigmawolish method of getting anywheahs. Look heah , now, I’ve got the wuhks of all the old mastahs — the gweat ahchaeologists of the past. I wigh them against each othah — balance the disagweements — analyze the conflicting statements — decide which is pwobably cowwect —and come to a conclusion. That is the scientific method. At least” — patronizingly — “as I see it. How insuffewably cwude it would be to go to Ahctuwus, oah to Sol, foah instance, and blundah about, when the old mastahs have covahed the gwound so much moah effectually than we could possibly hope to do.”
At the time I first read it — around age 12 or so — I could tell from the context that this was NOT the scientific method, though I wasn’t sure why. At least I had the excuse of young age; what is the excuse for the current state of climate science?
@James Baldwin Schrumpf
The patrician also mentioned the catastrophic failure of a nuclear power plant on a planet within the core of the Empire – and the fact that rather than training new technicians to repair and improve the other reactors, the patrician was of the opinion that nuclear power as a whole ought to be banned. Sound familiar?
The lesser spotted alarmist parrot is definitely in danger as the climate cools over the coming years – will anybody miss its loud shrill call of consensus, consensus, consensus heard throughout the media jungle………
It’s only pining for the fjords!
🙂
Now I think this is getting too silly.
If the pause/hiatus/plateau/etc continues for much longer and if the investigations into fraudulent data manipulation show evidence of malfeasance –
CLIMATE SCIENTISTS!
If the Pause/Hiatus/plateau/etc. continues for much longer, it will only serve as fodder for the furtherance of:
15 of the last 16 years have been the hottest on record
16 of the last 17 years have been the hottest on record
17 of the last 18 years have been the hottest on record
Until the actual cool down begins. (then they might be hosed)
bryan put down the huff post and read actual data. That is not even in the vicinity of being true.
In the year 3016 Al Gore Jnr Jnr Jnr…………
“1000 of the last 1001 years have been the hottest on record”
On a further note the latest 3016 world pole show” Global warming is 29th out of 30 of the worlds most pressing concerns!
Correct, climate models have no prediction power. Thus, the conclusions drawn from their predictions also lack the power of truth and reason.
Well Trenberth’s favorite model has no climate variability; it doesn’t even have weather.
Nothing ever changes; all of the climate variables have fixed immutable values.
How boring.
G
Death of a Salesman?
Doing my best warrenlb imitation.
How dare you question the work of the scientists!!!!
I think we do well without warrenlb models or simulation runs.
Do they always run in bootstrap mode?
My models always run in the tongue in cheek mode.
Those that aren’t running in the slow motion mode, that is.
True models only run in swimsuits. The rest are pretenders.
I doubt if any animals will (or have ever) become extinct due to man made climate change.
Although some have or may become extinct due other human related causes, such as habitat destruction or hunting, which climate alarmists will no doubt blame on climate change.
Note to PETA,
No actual animals were hurt during the production of the utilized Climate Models
That job has been remanded to Ivanpah Molten Salt Solar Energy and Wind Farm Energy
Bryan A: Taxpayers are animals too!
Liked the point though. PETA, Organizing For America, WWF, Sierra Club, DNC are pretty much the same thing in different costumes.
Both of what you listed is not why most animal go extinct, most of the time it the inability to complete or change rapidly enough with to pressure brought about by introduce specie, IE ground nesting birds eggs being eaten by rats. Tropical island is were most of the animals have gone extinct and that was mostly do to the animal or plants inability to adapt or complete with rats, pigs or something that uses the same ecosystem.
Uh, some might say that it was the “man made climate change” in the East Coast hotel dining rooms and restaurants that was a primary factor that caused the extinction of the Passenger Pigeon. 🙂 🙂
Well, I know someone will say it so I might as well do so. 99.99% of ALL life on Earth has gone extinct, & it did so long before Humna beings were around! I also agree with the comment that extinction is evolution in action!
Yes- they usually become extinct after an asteroid slams into the earth or some other catastrophic event. An extinction event should be something extremely rare (i.e. one every couple of hundreds of years). Except now it’s not.
So they claim. Unfortunately they are having trouble actually pin pointing the species that have allegedly gone extinct.
99.9% of all dinosaur species were already extinct by the time of the asteroid. MOST species go extinct without a major extinction event. It’s a natural part of evolution.
Almost once a week, they find a new animal that has become extinct most-likely due to climate change. The hard part is removing the layers of soil and rock to find the bodies.
Humans will all die first, in a burning, melting, stinking pile of flesh. We should all go away anyway so that Earth can live on, right?
Tom Lehrer has a comment on this topic. (although the threat was different at the time this was recorded). It still somewhat applies.
wildlife is thriving in cities that are several degrees hotter than the projected warming in 2100. I am sure they will do well.
The big problem is the impact of non-native on native species.
“used computer models and other statistical techniques”
I’m guessing error propagation was not one of the statistical techniques used when combining a bunch of existing models each with their own uncertainty!!
I liked the way he proclaimed that all of the computer models have problems, so the way to get around those problems was to combine the outputs of all the models.
When you add garbage to garbage, the sum will still be garbage.
Maybe that is the problem: We should be subtracting garbage from garbage.
You mean like averaging the outputs of multiple individual CGMs?
I remember one young warmista who complained that we were wasting time trying to review the quality of the ground based sensor network. He tried to claim that as long as we had lots of sensors, the quality of individual sensors didn’t matter because when you average them together, the errors will even out.
The NationalGeographic.com will have received monies for their article from government using the tax monies we (all) pay. We want our money back.
A good start will be for everyone to WRITE TO YOUR ELECTED REPRESENTATIVE (member of parliament or senator) AND DEMAND THAT THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH BE INCLUDED IN THE PARIS TREATY 2015.
THANK YOU. (The following words are those kindly presented by Lord Christopher Monckton to The Heartland Institute last year).
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
A get-out clause is a freedom clause.
“At any time after three years from the date on which this Protocol has entered into force for a Party, that Party may withdraw from this protocol by giving written notification to the Depositary”.
Kyoto Protocol, article 27.
– – – – – — – — – – – – — – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
(The above paragraph must be included in the Paris Treaty 2015).
The Climate Change Movement certainly makes homo sapiens the most endangered species.
What “animal”? A politician who supports ACO2 is driving climate change…I can live and hope
California farmers are thinking of going to court to have the delta smelt declared extinct so it’s listing will be lifted and millions of gallons of water devoted to that fish as a priority will be free to be used elsewhere.
that should read acre feet
What Animals Are Likely to Go Extinct First Due to Climate Change?
Homo Sapiens – subspecies ‘Power Station employee’
Homo Sapiens – subspecies ‘Oil technician’
Homo Sapiens – subspecies ‘Scientist (with integrity)’
….
Don’t forget the
Homo Sapiens – subspecies “Arab Oil Producer”
They can’t sell their Sand as Hour Glasses are Passé
Rather not. As Saving The Planet requires plastering it with wind turbines and solar panels, and as these require 100% capacity spinning reserve, the Save The Planet movement ENSURES the continued existence of the fossil fuel infrastructure. Plus: As it is WASTEFUL to build the second, “renewable” infrastructure, it ADDS demand for fossil fueled infrastructure. (Those huge cranes are still not electric)
Most of the cranes that I am familiar with are fueled by fish.
If you live in the vicinity of giant wind turbines you might one day see this subspecies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crane_%28machine%29
http://henrydomke.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/dubaiconstructionblog_3.jpg
A flock of cranes over Dubai
Good lord. Who the hell served on his Ph.D. committee???? It’s easier to list statistical errors he DID NOT make with this current paper. I would love to find a print of his dissertation.
Maybe it was a bet whether he could away with it if he wrote Climate Change on it?
These days it’s much more important to come to right conclusion than it is to use the right methods.
Since life is hard, and even harder if you’re stupid, I’m going to suggest that limousine liberals are going to be early failures followed by others who also believe modern society can survive without fossil fuels.
I had a tough time with Figure 2. What am I missing?
paper here
A climate science degree????
🙂
ok…that explains it… is there such a thing?
First you have to find a pile of unicorn poop.
The only thing going extinct is the credibility of contemporary scientists peddling such malarky.
Dumb as a bag of hammers.
At least you could get some useful work out of a bag of hammers.
I would give them to someone else to get some work out of them.
Every published argument that I have investigated suggesting a climate caused extinction have been totally debunked. IPCC scientists still push the Golden Toad as an example but it was an example of just how bad and biased climate science has become.
Read Contrasting Good and Bad Science: Disease, Climate Change and the Case of the Golden Toad
http://landscapesandcycles.net/contrasting-good-and-bad-science–disease–climate.html
As I show in the Golden Toad essay the deaths were all about the spread of a novel pathogen (a chytrid fungus) by researchers and the pet trade, as well as introduced bullfrogs.
In comparison here is what Bornstein wrote in 2006, and for a decade now he continues the same BS fear mongering now.
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
Tue Nov 21, 5:38 AM ET
WASHINGTON – Animal and plant species have begun dying off or changing sooner than predicted because of global warming, a review of hundreds of research studies contends.
These fast-moving adaptations come as a surprise even to biologists and ecologists because they are occurring so rapidly.
At least 70 species of frogs, mostly mountain-dwellers that had nowhere to go to escape the creeping heat, have gone extinct because of climate change, the analysis says. It also reports that between 100 and 200 other cold-dependent animal species, such as penguins and polar bears are in deep trouble.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102×2626485
Cold is bad for penguins, the larger the ice flows get, the further they have to walk from their breeding grounds to the open ocean where they feed.
Regardless, Antarctica hasn’t been warming anyway.
Every study that has been done on polar bears show that their populations are thriving and growing.
The Emperor penguins would flourish with rising sea levels, they wouldn’t have as far to walk to their nesting sites. Happier feet.
An early victim will be the species Paxus Verdi, particularly the sub-species Illegitimo.
They thrive in all kinds of comfortable habitats but are entirely dependent for sustenance on Homo Sapiens sub-species Retardus. When the Retardii come to their senses the Paxus Verdi will become extinct.
How about cockroaches and rattlesnakes? At least let’s hope some truly useless animals disappear.
Hey, no need to slam rattlers, but you could add mosquitoes to your list. And chiggers and ticks.
just curious Alan, what are the top three good points for rattlesnakes?
They eat rats, mice and prairie dogs.
Mosquitoes are one of the biggest pollinators on this planet. I’m not saying malaria is good, but you can’t expect a huge evolutionary success like the mosquito to disappear without consequences.
Roaches are a huge part of the food chain as well and not a problem at all unless you live in filth.
Besides, cockroaches and politicians have similar drawbacks: it’s not so much what they eat, as what they fall into and mess up. How can you appreciate one without the other present?
And rattlesnakes will flat out tell you, “Don’t tread on me”.
If the rattlesnake were to have some kind of unfortunate accident, or climate chaos happened, wouldn’t another snake fill the void and eat the “rats, mice and prairie dogs”?
Glenn, probably, that’s what nature does, when a niche is empty, something fills it.
Regardless, whatever filled the rattlesnake’s niche would probably end up with some rather unpleasant characteristics as well.
Most species live near the equator, not the poles.
In the tropics (i.e. between 23N and 23S), temperatures have hardly budged for the last 35 years.
See UAH or RSS data records.
Freely available here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/temp-and-precip/upper-air/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean.txt
So not-rising tropical temperatures will be not responsible for the extinction of most species.
The temperature of the tropics have not budged much in the last several million years. not more than 1 or 2 C.