Pierre Gosselin over at “No Tricks Zone” is reporting that within a day of its publication, the paper from the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has now been debunked and denounced by German climate scholars, some of whom side with the warmer view of climate. He writes:
Spiegel and the FAZ pour cold water on paper
Fortunately other media sources have been somewhat more critical and report that there’s skepticism on the paper – coming from warmist circles, no less.
Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) here for example writes that Rahmstorf is puzzled that a part of the north Atlantic has cooled over the last 100 years: “The cooling was stronger than what most computer models calculated it would be,” the FAZ reports. Models wrong again!
The FAZ then writes that, “An independent expert assesses the estimation skeptically”, adding:
Climate scientist Martin Visbeck of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel sees Rahmstorf’s interpretation of the results critically: ‘The study’s focus on the sub-polar part of the Atlantic and the spectral analysis are interesting,’ he says. But there are other AMOC assessments that point to a completely other development. The paper does not offer any strong indication of the development of the AMOC during the past fifty years.”
When a warmist dismisses another warmists’s science, then you know it’s likely pretty slipshod.
– See more at: Dead At Birth! German Warmist Scientists Slap Down Rahmstorf/Mann AMOC Paper: “Offers No Strong Indication”
Typical Mann, when challenged, he runs away.Discover more from Watts Up With That?
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C’mon Mann!
Mann is doing what he does best, that is, sinking his own boat and then dragging down with him as many of his shipmates as he can.
Actually I was using a play on words. “C’mon man” is a segment on ESPN showing stupid things that go on during American football games. For the non American readers, “c’mon man” is short for “come on, man, you can do better” or “come on , man, don’t be so stupid” etc. Here’s a segment from the show:
I think its called progressive enlightened liberalism? Or policy based climate science?
Did Bill Nye consult on this paper with them? Maybe they had their “spacial fingerprints” upside down….
No but Gov. Brown did was consulted.
As a Brit, can anyone confirm, for the sake of clarity & good order, that the “Gov. Brown (who) was consulted” is the famous ‘Moonbeam Brown’ – a grant farmer nearly up there with our English ‘Capability Brown’, a landscape gardener – perhaps see the wonderful always 100.01% accurate Wikipedia ( I can edit it) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability_Brown.
With thanks for correcting me if needed,
Auto
Yes, ‘moonbeam’ Jerry Brown is governor of California. [Although] I believe Dr. Steele was probably jesting about Moonbeam having been consulted. Moonbeam would probably think AMOC is either some illegal Mexican ‘alien’ advocacy group, or a new brand of Mexican weed. Sort of like he said LAX is threatened by sea level rise, without having checked the present elevation of LAX above sea level.
So climate models are not even able to predict the past, that is already known. So why would anybody expect them to predict the future, before it happens, when they won’t even be able to predict that after it is already known ??
Perhaps we should start calling him ‘Incapable Brown’?
Ah! There’s a song about him.
Just an injection into the conversation for anyone just starting the comments. For a bit here there is some fun with Mann, then some low level distraction caused by a troll and the responses he invokes, BUT then there are some great comments starting about here….
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/24/mann-on-the-run-latest-paper-dead-at-birth-rejected-by-german-warmist-scientists-deletes-inconvenient-facebook-challenge/#comment-1890944
The linked comment is cogent to an RGB post just below. Many excellent comments following with some new information and the real shot at a coming paradigm shift in the view of CAGW.
No disrespect to those comments in between, many of which have value, but trolls are distracting from science no matter what.
It is not the original crime, it is the cover-up that is most telling.
Unless you’re a liberal.
Just ask Peter Gleick.
+1
Unmanned. Post normal proxy data fitter subbed from the game.
It looks to me like “Dr.” Mann is the best friend the skeptical side ever had. He must be giving warmists everywhere heartburn.
I’ve often said that… let him talk, talk, talk! He appears essentially clueless.
Hope she has a good lawyer.
Well Mann’s paper had a useful purpose other than this. He threw his hockey stick under the bus to try to position himself ahead of the cooling curve. He states that this cooling of the sea by melting glaciers from Greenland has not happened since 900AD. So he has the MWP essentially the same as now! That puts a blade on both ends of his hockey stick. I hope Steyn takes note of this throwing away his hockey stick. I mentioned this on the other thread.
Is it unprecedented for a global warming proponent to shoot down a warming paper like this? Or is it because it’s who it is. Or is a big correction coming in climate science. There will be those who brazen it out even if they are freezing to death and there are those who will use the disastrous model projections and the responses of nature to learn something real about climate. The wonderful learning experience that the “pause” has brought has already put the once hated and marginalized ENSO, PDO, NAO, the sun, etc. into the lexicons of those who would take this opportunity nature offers. I say Go Jaime go! too. I think we should all support those with the integrity and reliance on empirical data.
What is missed by the cheering section for CAGW is that thoughtful skeptics aren’t rooting for the next ice age or seeking rent for their dissent. It has been asked countless times by serious skeptics – show us the data. Like Anthony and most thoughtful skeptics, I didn’t have any reason to reject the thesis of global warming at the outset, but having seen in the last 8-9yrs what has actually being going on, who is promoting this stuff and the cash paid for their testimony by governments, UN and new world order types, yeah, I began to question big time. The icing on the cake was the single tree selected in the northern Urals, truncating the last 30 years of it because of the divergence problem, an upside down and partially contaminated lake sediment proxy from Finland and art mending needlework to splice a yearly temperature record onto data without the same resolution in years to multiply the effect by this very same author. Go Jaime go and put integrity back into science. We will be with you wherever the real definitive data takes you (of course we will need to see what can be salvaged from the tortured temperature data to put it to work).
Gary,
Well said. Please advise the Administration.
They have discovered that people are more motivated by status than money. These scientists who are in the slip stream of the CAGW meme will begin to feel their status as scientists are being undermined by these constant unfounded alarmist scare stories. It must make them feel they are being associated with a pseudo-science con trick club that is becoming the butt of jokes amongst their colleagues. At some point they will stand up to protect their reputations. I bet there are many embarrassing stories and skeletons, we need some whistle blowers.
Hmmm, a blade on both ends of the hockey stick… That could boomerang on you I suspect.
Gary said “Well Mann’s paper had a useful purpose other than this. He threw his hockey stick under the bus to try to position himself ahead of the cooling curve.”
=========================================
I was considering this. Mann was early on the band wagon, likely, like Hansen, aware of the positive ENSO and likely warming. Wit out so much as a how do you do” to all the past climate proxy work, he eliminated the MWP and invented the hockey stick. Now he once again ignores the current peer reviewed work, and creates his own new version of anthropogenic disaster, this one a cooling caused by man.
It will be interesting to see if the political warmist bandwagon, recognizing the likely coming cool cycle, jumps on the bandwagon.
We can call the new theory “CAGYY” The YY for yoyo, which as most know is a fad remarketed every 30 years or so.
To be relevant in Mannology, the work must either align with the dogma or be about double bacon cheese burgers.
WOW! (y)
And the Laughs never stop.
Rahm (German) = Cream
Störf (Icelandic) = Jobs
So another raucous TV episode from “Cream Puff” and “Der Mann”
Ha ha
Greenland = Ice
Ice Cream Jobs
Dr. Rahmstorf developed a model of a sea level rise, ignoring an inconvenient fact of a limited water supply on our planet.
Sand pile self-organized criticality at work: The bigger the sand pile, the bigger the eventual collapse. Let Mann’s ego build it high. Nature won’t care when it collapses. And the Schadenfreude will run deep and fast.
I understand the ‘pile’ part. Not sure about the sand, though.
http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/funny/1/shit-emoticon.gif
Jaime, good job at showing Mann is up sh*t creek without a hockey stick!
I’m sure some read it before he deleted it.
Glad you saved it for others to see.
‘Aliasing’? Baffle, meet gab.
Nyquist, meet frequency.
ah, heysuess, meet schooled. thanks.
This scares on life support and fading fast. Kelly, Salby now this.
Clearly academics are starting to turn on people like Mann. I don’t believe it will be long before the initial trickle turns into a torrent of criticism.
What you see here is the inevitable result of a researcher who was involved in the inept hockey stick papers who, by this current paper, continues to show that he has not yet learned to perform a mode of objective research.
The researcher continues to know he is right on climate even though his climate research corpus does not withstand: (1) independent auditors; (2) researchers who did relevant research independently of his; (3) now wary news media who have seen his science mimicking intellectual tricks before.
John
You’re right, John. They were so confident as to foolishly bet on the come; and it didn’t.
Pat Frank,
They have the subjectivist’s inevitable overconfidence due to their belief that their ideas have power to replace reality.
John
Good observations, John Whitman. I would also suggest that this is what the Greeks from the Golden Age would refer to as the inevitable result of excess hubris.
JayB,
Perhaps a hubris of the variety that comes from compensation due to lack of sufficient self-confidence?
John
Speaking of ‘type of person’ Mann is….admittedly I don’t know much about twitter but I was shocked to see what seemed like half his posts were just retweets of somebody else mentioning his name.
Is that normal on Twitter?
Dave,
I don’t know.
John
Mann on the Run
If I had the time I’d redo the lyrics into “Mann’s got the Runs”. 😎
Tell M4GW about it!
Make a suggestion to ELMER
I’m working on it…
As promised… Mann’s on the run
http://youtu.be/Y7Zm3k9CF5g
Not mannish enough, this Mann …
Coat, tie, and Telecaster … what’s there not to like? 🙂
That Mann loves you. But he’s got a long way to Fall.
“No-one ever gets the truth from plastic Mann.”
If Mann is plastic man then he must sing about:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NUJP0BwWB5Q
Muddy Waters spoke more truth in 3 minutes than Mann in his entire career.
Climate change causes muddy waters.
University of Southampton: Specialises in marine science.
Not surprising considering its location and history.
And as such it deals with the real world. No surprise that computer model idolaters are held in scorn down on the Solent.
Also worth remembering that the UK still has real science – not just RealClimate.
The University of Southhampton has one of the most warmist professors one would ever wish to come accross. I can’t recall his name, but he is frequently trotted out on TV when extreme weather events are in the news.
I thought the UK was pretty much devoid of “real science” based on the policies we read about that are being put in place over there?
Michael Jackson did the moonwalk, sliding backwards while appearing to walk forward.
Michael Mann has turned it into a loonwalk.
What’s the loon walk? Sliding backwards while shrieking like an idiot?
Sliding backwards while looking/sounding or just being like Michael Mann
Listen carefully . . . you might hear a keening whimper simultaneous with a deep sucking sound . . . it might be his intellectual credibility imploding.
John
For something to implode it has to exist in the first place.
Best wishes to you sir. 🙂
Tom J,
I do not doubt he had potential for objective intellectual development at some point in his early life. He chose to make bad research at some point that was subjectively determined, thus there would be an intellectual implosion or implosions at some point. N’est ce pas?
John
And if you continue to listen carefully, you might hear what sounds like a rather wet [trimmed] followed by an uneasy sigh of relief. That would be the reaction of the scientific community.
[Cut the language out. .mod]
Bryan,
Perhaps climate science can experience a cathartic moment when self-correction away from alarmism occurs.
John
I posted on Mann’s Facebook page on May 6, 2013 when the Nenena Ice Classic broke (if I remember correctly) the all time record. I took a screenshot, which was subsequently lost when my computer was stolen in downtown LA. Mann almost immediately deleted the post, and I cannot post there now.
Does The Way Back Machine (or similar) work with Facebook? It might be worth checking.
I just can’t get it right. Is it spelled Rahmstorf or Rahmsdork?
Considering what is being promoted, I think the correct spelling would be “Ragnarok”.
they call this “Mann on the moon” 🙂
nice Jaime good work! it often strikes me that when warmists get confronted with REAL data instead of computer models they blow hot and cold and then delete the stuff they can’t answer, or just shoot the messenger instead of trying to debunk the message….
like i said as a nutral reader with no “pro or contra climate change i often found out that asking just common sense very logical questions make alarmists to go haywire
an alarmist did post in a forum about the 4000 year old tree stumps that got discovered due to retreating glaciers. alarmists “see global warming is real and unprecedented”
my unscientific but logical question was: ” if 4000 years ago trees grew there, and that glaciers do move stuff downstream, where did they then originally stand, and how much warmer was it back then to expand the treeline to that spot even if the glacier didn’t move that tree stump at all?”
you bet that they can’t answer that 🙂
seems Mann is a bit of that same type of person
Stop laughing! Every month he collects a pay check for produce this stuff. You don’t.
If your looking for honest , Mann is certainly not the person to look to , but then he never was and in reality , it is actual not caused him any professional harm at all . Another mark of the ‘quality’ of climate ‘science’