“…the time has come to look at options for a planetary-scale intervention…”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The National Academy of Science has demanded that scientists from disciplines other than climate modelling get a fair turn at the grant trough.
According to The Guardian;
“Climate change has advanced so rapidly that the time has come to look at options for a planetary-scale intervention, the National Academy of Science said on Tuesday.
The scientists were categorical that geoengineering should not be deployed now, and was too risky to ever be considered an alternative to cutting the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. But it was better to start research on such unproven technologies now – to learn more about their risks – than to be stampeded into climate-shifting experiments in an emergency, the scientists said.
With that, a once-fringe topic in climate science moved towards the mainstream – despite the repeated warnings from the committee that cutting carbon pollution remained the best hope for dealing with climate change.
“That scientists are even considering technological interventions should be a wake-up call that we need to do more now to reduce emissions, which is the most effective, least risky way to combat climate change,” Marcia McNutt, the committee chair and former director of the US Geological Survey, said.
Asked whether she foresaw a time when scientists would eventually turn to some of the proposals studied by the committee, she said: “Gosh, I hope not.”
I can understand Marcia’s point – it might be fun to build a doomsday machine, but you probably wouldn’t want to switch it on.
But the frustration of Physicists, Engineers and Chemistry majors is obvious and understandable – in my opinion they’re simply demanding that they get fair access to the climate trough, rather than seeing all the money, women, swanky holiday outings and the fancy new offices, go to the climate muddlers.
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The NAS does this even as the Climate Emperor sheds the last of his fictitious clothes (i.e. the “pause”-er- shelf). What a sad testimony to the power of corruption and institutional inertia.
Every Tuesday. You can even sign up to get the announcements on all these panels and conferences designed to justify government intrusion into every aspect of life.
IF these folks are really into looking at reducing / slowing down our co2 output then why not plant more trees and promote research into greater energy efficiency? There are parts of the world that used to be covered in trees; were later turned into farms that have now been abandoned. Use those areas to re-plant trees. As always follow THEIR MONEY.
On a related issue do keep a close eye on anyone proposing to use geoengineering schemes – they may have a special interest, ie ready to get paid for schemes they propose and stocks in any companies created. Just look at some climate scientists and their business interests – carbon this and carbon that.
Right. The Altiplano was once forest. Seems potato growers burned all the trees. Introduced eucalyptus grows fast there Now quinoa is on the rise. –AGF
England’s trees are coming back apparently.
http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2013/jul/27/history-of-englands-forests
Everybody benefits from something. Fossil fuel companies benefit greatly when we do nothing.
But I am pleased that we agree completely on the idea of re-forestation.
\
Fossil fuel companies benefit greatly no matter what you think or execute. India, China, Africa consume fossil fuels to raise their people’s living standards. How well off are you? Are you Indian, Chinese or African? If not then please do not reply otherwise I will catch you in my trap…………………………again. Shhhhh all that humbugary!
Furthermore Larry, here are the folks that also BENEFIT when fossil fuel companied DO SOMETHING…………………..like hand out money. What do you have to say about this??? Can I call this hypocrisy? Look in the mirror and look at the log in their eyes.
Fossil fuel funded climate change and green bodies(25 of them)
Flashman, please don’t rub me up the wrong way. I have lot’s more to say but I will be kind today.
Sometimes I do wish you would take your blinkers off Sir Harry. No read and smell the latte cafe. Oil companies benefit no matter what we do or don’t do. Oil companies have been experimenting with pumping co2 into oil wells for over 40 years – it’s called enhanced oil recovery. Even if the USA and Europe shunned petroleum completely there is a growing market in India, China, Africa etc. as more and more people own cars etc. Now read on….
http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/The-17.6-Trillion-Solution-To-Climate-Change.html
The NAS has someone called Ken Caldeira sittting on it. Read about this climate scientist HERE. He has business interests tied to Bill Gates in geoengineering ventures. He gets paid over $300,000 a year from Gates as well as holding patents in geoengineering solutions. Ken has been an IPCC contributing author in recent years too.
More here.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/06/bill-gates-climate-scientists-geoengineering
FOLLOW THE MONEY ALRIGHT! >>>>>>>>>>>>
[Please do not discuss chemtrails here, per site Policy. — mod.]
It means that the climate is already being altered by jet aircraft “dumping aerosols into the upper atmosphere”. The issue about geoengineering is the DELIBERATE alteration of the climate. I have mentioned this already downstream.
hsaive, how many times have you flown by plane in the last 10 years? Do you promise not to fly by plane as from today?
Do some research on iron sulfate and algal blooms and red tides and oxygen and sunlight. Then tell me about how life below sea level will prosper.
http://www.livescience.com/24025-illegal-iron-dumping-phytoplankton-bloom.html
And see http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org which shows that the poisoning of the atmosphere and consequently the Earth has been going on for some time and it needs to be STOPPED!
And see http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org which shows that the poisoning of the atmosphere and consequently the Earth has been going on for some time and it needs to be STOPPED!
What poisoning?
The recent release of CO2 to fertilize plants?
The terrible smoke pollution in China that Oboma wants to increase for dozens of more years?
The terrible oil pollution in Russia and China and the deadly coal mines of China that Oboma wants to continue?
It would be wise to first build a Constellation Class starship to blow up in it’s guts before it was switched on…just in case. 😎
http://www.ask.com/wiki/The_Doomsday_Machine_%28Star_Trek:_The_Original_Series%29?o=2801&qsrc=999&ad=doubleDown&an=apn&ap=ask.com
Please keep giving it the “climatologists” at least they can’t do any damage I can just imagine a “bacteria” that eats C02 to slow down “Global Warming”. Nut cases like Gore would probably fund it . Lets NOT go there.
No. Gore would be selling the stock of the company that is researching the bacteria.
Well, her name could hardly be more appropriate – McNutt!
Don’t they call that plankton?
Er, it’s called blue-green algae. We have that already.
We have living organisms that “eat” CO2. They’re called plants.
Geoengineering. What could possibly go wrong?
https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.608047793387932401&pid=15.1&P=0
Back in the 1970s, the geo-engineering types were seriously discussing building a dam across the Bering Strait to keep all that cold Arctic water and ice up in the Arctic Ocean, to slow our descent into another ice age.
So you watched Snowpiercer lately? 😀 I would rather have Waterworld than Iceworld anyday.
Climate change has advanced so rapidly …..by standing still
So the very people that are complaining about man’s effect on the planet….are going to invent ways for man to just control it completely…while they are all pissing and moaning about GMO’s
‘Climate change has advanced so rapidly …..by standing still’
She’s conflating climate change with climate change funding: something I think we can all certainly agree has indeed advanced rapidly – to the detriment of all.
These guys are too slow or too honest but have finally decided to throw off their principles and go for the money.
Yes, they have finally found where the big taxpayer is…
Climastrologists are hopeless at predictions. Here is one prediction from a politician over 50 years ago. Join the dots and learn from history.
The above linked Guardian article says:
The US National Academy of Science says:
In his Farewell address to the nation President Eisenhower said:
“.. danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
I do believe it is the other way around: The scientific-technological elite has become the captive of public policy.
A day after the Guardian article we see this from the Guardian written by a climate scientist named Ken Caldeira.
Feb 26, 2013
Ken has ties to some of these ventures as well as having a seat on the NAS. He promotes geoengineering ideas that he could profit from while having sat on the IPCC and the US National Academy of Sciences. He is dispensing advice and I see a conflict of interest. Do you?
—
—-
CORRECTION:
The date “Feb 26, 2013” should appear on top of the second of my blockquotes.
Feb 26, 2013
“How Bill Gates is engineering the Earth to resist climate change…..”
Now you see why I don’t listen to climate scientists promoting geoengineering. They have a conflict of interest and follow the money. Why should I agree to their proposals? If Ken worked in the stock exchange he would be in hot water.
Standard warning:
If it is not broken, do not fix it.
Suzanne Goldenberg(Guardian) keeps the pressure on the cooker, Doomsday is near. The silent majority has to be brainwashed for support and the money.
Or maybe, per Occams’ Razor, everybody just recognizes that this is a huge problem.
SHF:
Since more than 32,000 scientists and engineers have stated in writing and by name that human CO2 emissions are most likely not a problem, and in fact are beneficial, then there is something wrong with your statement: either “everybody” is wrong, or “a huge problem” is wrong.
Which?
We’ve had this conversation before. The Oregon Petition that I assume you’re referring to is widely known among the reality-based community to be a hoax and a joke. if you’re talking about something else, by all means reference it and we can have that conversation.
Either way, the idea that tens of thousands of scientists are somehow being bought into supporting AGW is laughable, considering all the money lies on the other side with fossil fuel companies and their shills. Even the Koch brothers pet skeptic scientist, who was hired to disprove AGW, came away from his research acknowledging he’d been wrong.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0730/Prominent-climate-change-denier-now-admits-he-was-wrong-video
Thats what PBS thought when they randomly produced a signature of support for the Oregon Petition on a documentary, while dissing the quality of the scientists who signed the Oregon Petition. Unfortunately the signature they pulled out at random was Edward Teller, one of the lead scientists in the Manhattan Project, otherwise known as the father of the Hydrogen Bomb.
PBS apparently tried to cover up their embarrassment with a rather desperate post production hack, blurring out the signature of one of the most distinguished scientists in American history.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/25/why-did-pbs-frontline-electronically-alter-the-signature-of-one-of-the-worlds-most-distinguished-physicists-in-their-report-climate-of-doubt/
We’ve had this conversation before. The reality based community recognizes there has been no global warming for +18 years. The reality based community recognizes global warming and cooling as natural cycles.
In the face of no ‘threat’, you have only fear mongering and the profligate waste of taxpayer dollars supporting your discredited AGW hypothesis. But don’t let reality stop you, Shaman. Keep shaking your gourd rattle and decrying humanity’s industrial ‘original sin’ as the cause of ‘impending doom’.
Flashman:
Richard Muller was “hired” by the Kochs to “disprove AGW?” If funded = “hired” then there have been a lot more researchers hired to prove AGW.
The Kochs fund a lot of research, most of it medical. Muller talked them into funding Berkeley Earth, after which he became a believer. He and his daughter Elizabeth now profit from concern about warming.
In an interview after Muller’s conversion, Elizabeth said she and father consider Anthony Watts and his team “heroes” for their work on station siting issues.
Jealous of Muller’s opinion pieces in the NYTimes, Michael Mann wrote in HuffPo that Muller is ignorant about climate science because he still doesn’t believe in Mann’s hockey stick.
That “all the money lies on the other side with fossil fuel companies and their shills” is laughable. In the runup to the failure to pass the 2009 carbon cap and trade bill, environmental groups outspent the bill’s opponents by $139 million. (It helped proponents fundraising, of course, that one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bill would have been Goldman Sachs.) 90% of news and opinion articles in the NYTimes, WaPo, and CNN favored passage of the bill.
This is directed at both Mr. Stealey and Sir Harry,
I signed that petition several years ago and I CAN ASSURE you that my informed opinion as a skilled engineer with many successful designs utilizing “radiation physics” under my belt that my opinion and that of many others was NOT A HOAX. I will gladly sign such a petition again with ever firmer conviction this time that CO2 emissions is NOT NOW AND NEVER HAS BEEN A PROBLEM.
“Geoengineering” is a complete farce and anybody that wastes taxpayer money on it should be tarred and feathered BEFORE they get the chance to “flip the switch”.
Once the “bright engineers” at Google ™ took a look at “renewable energy” they quickly found that the energy expended (with the associated CO2 emissions) to “replace” fossil fuels would far outweigh any “savings” in CO2 emissions.
Likewise all of these harebrained geoengineering schemes have the same problem multiplied by several orders of magnitude. Even if injecting sulfur into the atmosphere “could” correct the alleged “AGW problem” the infrastructure costs and energy needed would make it a self defeating proposition. Every Joule of heating prevented would require 10 Joules of energy consumed (with all the evil CO2 emissions, of course).
Oh, and the chances that the governments of all the countries with expensive space-borne assets (weather satellites, GPS, Communication, Imaging, etc.) would let somebody launch a bunch of free flying (ie uncontrollable) mirrors into space to eventually SHRED all of those assets on impact is smaller than the chances of a “climate treaty”.
It is a FARCE, written large. The good news is they can never purchase enough of the necessary materials to even attempt this. There is not enough production capacity (factories) to produce enough aluminum or glass to make enough mirrors to launch into space to “control the sunshine”.
It might actually be a bit easier to reverse the rotational direction of the Earth by getting everybody to drive/fly in only one direction for a month, or two. “My grandmother, at the age of 90 starting walking 5 miles everyday, now nobody has any idea where the heck she is” (not my joke I forget the original author, but full credit to Him/Her is due).
Cheers, KevinK.
With reference to KevinK’s comments, geo-engineering has been widespread for many years with appalling consequences that are already being identified. See http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org
Kevin K,
Recently I tried to sign the petition. I sent it in but my name didn’t appear, and I never heard anything back from them. So I sent an email to Noah at the site, but again I never received any reply.
I don’t think they’re taking more co-signers, mainly because the petitition was directed to the U.S. government prior to the proposed 1997 Kyoto Protocol [which failed, in part due to the opetition]. The petition language makes it that clear that the intent was to derail Kyoto.
You are correct, the CO2 scare is a farce. But the petition was very serious — so serious that the alarmist crowd has gone out of their way to try to destroy it. It drives them crazy to see that more than 32,000 scientists and engineers do not buy their ‘carbon’ scare. As the Flashman says:
The Oregon Petition that I assume you’re referring to is widely known among the reality-based community to be a hoax and a joke.
In fact, it was not a joke. The OISM site lists the name of every co-signer, and it includes more than 9,000 PhD’s. As with any list of tens of thousands of names, there were a few hoaxes. But those fake names were quickly weeded out in the vetting process. Also, there were a few examples of common names [Jim Smith, etc.], in which another person of the same name protested that he had never signed. That, too, was vetted.
The true “consensus” that alarmists are always claiming, is actually heavily on the side of scientific skeptics. I have repeatedly challenged alarmists to produce a named list of even 10% of the OISM numbers, contradicting their statement. No one ever responds. Then I challenged them to produce just one percent of the OISM’s numbers — about 300 names. Again, no response.
Clearly, the consensus regarding CO2 is on the side of skeptics. Maybe Flashman didn’t know that before he commented. But he knows it now.
What problem, pray tell?
Seriously, would you care to give specifics, flash man? Without the usual alarmist hype?
Repeat, what problem?
Or maybe, per Ockham’s Razor, natural factors are the major influence on earth’s climate, which might explain why a definitive CO2 signal has never been empirically demonstrated (despite near 30 years of trying).
Or maybe, per recent surveys, most people either rrealise this, or simply aren’t that interested.
Or maybe, per usual, you are misrepresenting the real world. Perhaps you should review definitions of the words ‘everybody’ and ‘huge’.
oops-type on rrealise. (Talking to SHF, of course, in case of any confusion)
No they don’t.
Definitely an inappropriate and erroneous use of Occam’s Razor…
You got to it before me ….
Why is the “Occam’s Razor” so appealing to people that don’t understand it (and have probably only seen it in its simplified paraphrase)?
I knew everyone was gonna jump on the Occam’s Razor thing, that’s what I love about wikipedia – it makes everyone a genius. But in fact it’s entirely appropriate – AGW requires far and away the fewest assumptions to explain the current changes in the planet’s climate, since there are no natural forcings that can account for them. That’s why “skeptics” spend so much time parsing tiny data points in mostly fruitless attempts to deny it’s happening, or to find other mechanisms to explain it, or to admit it’s happening but call it harmless. Or to do all three, even though the ideas are mutually contradictory, which is possibly the most comical thing about the convoluted web of pseudo-science and conspiracy theory that is the denier echo-verse.
What recent changes in the world’s global average temperature anomaly?
It’s been 18 years of rising CO2… and no change in temperature.
Before that, CO2 rose, and temperature rose a little bit.
Before that, CO2 rose, and temperatures were steady.
Before that, CO2 rose, and temperatures fell.
Before that, CO2 was steady, and temperatures were steady.
Before that, CO2 was steady, and temperatures rose – just as much as now.
before that, CO2 was steady, and temperatures fell.
The old Occam’s razor is slicing your theory to little itty bits.
SHF says:
AGW requires far and away the fewest assumptions to explain the current changes in the planet’s climate, since there are no natural forcings that can account for them.
Of course, you are talking about your own planet, not Planet Earth. Because the simplest explanation by far is natural variability, which requires no assumptions or extraneous variables like CO2 or methane.
You’re just talking through your hat, asserting that there are no natural forcings to account for observations. The real truth is that there is no verifiable evidence showing that anthropogenic CO2 has any effect. [It may. But if so, the effect is far too minuscule to measure.]
There are no data points to parse with natural variability. There is no magic gas required in the simplest explanation. If I’m wrong about that, the onus is on you to show where, using empirical, terstable measurements. But as we know, you ain’t got nothin’ there. Because there are no measurements of AGW, not even one.
The fact is, Flash, that you are despearately grasping at straws. Every sentence in your comment above is nothing but a baseless assertion, with a dash of Appeal to Authority and ad hominem fallacies thrown in.
You certainly don’t understand Occam’s Razor, or the climate Null Hypothesis, or even the Scientific Method. If you did, you wouldn’t make fatuous comments like you just did.
I’m pretty sure noone in these comment sections understand Null Hypothesis.
dbstealey,
No, not really because your argument is self-refuting. Hint: the magical thinking is in the first sentence, not the second.
Ok SHF, I haven’t been reading WUWT as regularly lately and have missed your arrival.
I don’t know what you think you’re accomplishing here, but believe me when I say, you should stop. If you think you’re representing your “side”, you’re actually just making alarmists look bad. If you think you’re “educating” skeptics, I haven’t seen you post anything verifiable, science-based, or even very intelligent.
My recommendation for you is to quietly read and learn things. As long as you keep posting as you are, more believers will begin to understand why skeptics are more knowledgeable. You’re not exactly covering yourself with glory here.
Nice try, Gates, but you’re starting to sound like Trenberth: “…the onus must be placed on skeptics…”
No. Runaway global warming and climate catastrophe are your conjectures. Skeptics simply say, “Show us.” Provide convincing evidence that your conjecture has merit.
But so far all you’ve done is tap-dance around your lack of empirical evidence, and obfuscate. The onus is on you to support your MMGW beliefs.
The reason you try to put the onus on skeptics is because you have no credible evidence. All your comments demonstrate that lack of solid evidence. What’s more, Planet Earth has been busy debunking the MMGW belief for almost twenty years now [I’ll give you 10, if you can’t handle 18].
Most people will go with what the planet is clearly telling us. And if the planet begins to heat up again, I will reassess the situation; maybe change my mind by 180º, if new evidence appears.
But in the mean time, skeptics have won the debate. Why is it impossible for you to admit that? Is your sensitive ego so important to you? Seems so. What else could it be? It can’t be evidence. Because you have none.
dbstealey,
Nice try, Stealey, but you assume the burden of proof with statements such as, “Because the simplest explanation by far is natural variability, which requires no extraneous variables like CO2 or methane.” Parsimony is only useful for forming efficient hypotheses. They must still be tested. Until you do that, invoking “natural variability” is magical thinking, which is a no-no in science.
The circularity is dizzying. A wise man once said something about casting pearls before swine.
And maybe pigs will sprout wings and fly.
Putting lipstick on a pig doesn’t make it not a pig.
Gates says:
…you assume the burden of proof…
Wrong, as usual.
Your basic premise/conjecture is that a rise in anthropogenic CO2 will cause runaway global warming and climate catastrophe. The onus is on those who believe that. You are one of them, Gates.
Skeptics do not ‘assume the burden of proof’, no matter how much you wish it. Skeptics simply say, “Show us in a convincing way that your conjecture is valid.”
You have failed to do that. All you have is your baseles conjecture. So now you are at the point of trying to blame skeptics for your failure. That won’t work here; we know better.
Natural variability is the default position. There is nothing occurring now that has not happened before, and to a much greater degree. Nothing has changed. Natural variability is still the reason for all observations, and there is no need for an extraneous variable like your magic gas to explain anything.
As Prof Lindzen says, there is no need for any other explanation. Heat moving through the massive oceans fully accounts for the tenths of a degree fluctuations being observed. Nothing is in stasis, as you seem to believe would be the case without human emissions.
If CO2 causes any warming, which it might, it is simply too minuscule to measure. Therefore, CO2 emissions can be completely disregarded for all policy purposes.
The carbon scare is going down, and nothing you and your pals write can stop that now. The scare has run its course. It will take time, just like heat moving through the oceans. But it is over.
dbstealey,
That is not my position.
Except “skeptics” do not simply say that. Here’s an example you wrote from above:
Since more than 32,000 scientists and engineers have stated in writing and by name that human CO2 emissions are most likely not a problem, and in fact are beneficial, then there is something wrong with your statement: either “everybody” is wrong, or “a huge problem” is wrong.
That’s a claim. Your burden of proof.
Oh look, another claim. Again, you assume the burden of proof.
Oh look, another claim. Again, you assume the burden of proof.
Oh look, another claim. Again, you assume the burden of proof.
And finally a conclusion reached on the basis of unsubstantiated claims. Any more stupidly silly lies like, “Skeptics do not ‘assume the burden of proof’, no matter how much you wish it,” you’d care to share with us, DB?
Gates says:
That’s a claim. Your burden of proof.
That has been proven so many times that only a religious True Believer like you would still refuse to accept it.
Next, regarding the climate Null Hypothesis:
Oh look, another claim.
Go argue with Dr. Roy Spencer, who wrote that “the null hypothesis has never been falsified”. Dr. Spencer has the credibility that you lack.
Next, regarding the long quote I posted by Prof. Richard Lindzen:
Oh look, another claim.
That is such a lame response that it can be completely disregarded without further comment.
Next, regarding my statement that “If CO2 causes any warming, which it might, it is simply too minuscule to measure,” Gates says:
Oh look, another claim.
Produce a verifiable, testable measurement showing the fraction of global warming that is AGW, and I’ll concede the point. I’ve asked repeatedly, but you never post any testable measurements. If you could quantify AGW out of total global warming, you would be Nature and Science journals Poster Boy of the Decade. But of course, you can’t do it. So far, no one has been able to produce an empirical, testable measurement specifically quantifying AGW.
And as I stated: “Skeptics do not ‘assume the burden of proof’, no matter how much you wish it.” That is still the case. Wishing won’t make it so. Desperately wishing won’t make it so, either.
Gates, you don’t even understand how the Scientific Method works. Obviously. AGW is your conjecture. Skeptics have no burden to prove anything. Trying to explain reality to you is like trying to teach a dog trigonometry. Frustrating, and a complete waste of time.
You live in your own strange and irrational world, Gates. Have you noticed that no one seems to agree with you here? Being flat wrong about everything doesn’t make you another Einstein, arguing with the Russian Academy. It only makes you an iconoclast.
dbstealey,
Vintage unintentional hilarity.
Shirley you’re not appealing to authority now are you? Nawww … Real “Skeptics” don’t do that.
Well I don’t know. Two appeals to experts in a row. Are you sure you’re really a “skeptic”?
Been down that road with you before. You know direct measurements are not possible. All we have are estimates. You snark, “guesstimates” and declare victory. Except you don’t really require measurements for your so-called “science”, else you wouldn’t write such thoroughly illogical self-refuting bullcrap as: There are no data points to parse with natural variability.
Aaaaaabsolutely priceless.
Science isn’t a popularity contest according to you, anti-consensus boi. Consistent much?
Flashman says:
I’m pretty sure noone in these comment sections understand Null Hypothesis.
“noone”?? Better watch out, rodmol will give you a spelling lesson.
anyway, I understand the Null Hypothesis. We’ve discussed it here for the past couple of years. Many others here understand it, too. So if you would like a fairly short definition, just ask. This is where you can really learn things. But you have to ask.
===================
rodmol says:
…Gates has you beat.
In what way? Gates doesn’t even understand the scientific method’s hierarchy.
You have to be more specific than that. I understand you’re probably miffed because you were set straight regarding your grammar critique, but a drive-by comment like that is immature. Admit it: you’re just trying to get even for being wrong.
====================
Someone hand Gates a hanky. He’s gone into projection mode, poor boy. His tantrums indicate that he’s run out of any arguments, credible or not.
“In what way? ”
…
1) He is more knowledgeable than you. He has more exposure to the subject matter than you.
2) He has a better command of the English language than you
3) His posts are enlightening, yours are boringly repetitious
He has you beat
No.
Yes, in your opinion, “he” has “has you beat”.
But, on a weighted average of “your opinion” and infinity, I don’t care what your opinion is. I “care” only what the facts are. But, as a writer, I need only care about the accuracy of the information transferred. And you, sir, are proving an impediment in the transfer of both knowledge and information. Which are two different things.
rodmol@virginmedia.com,
Well thanks. I’m afraid the only illumination I can provide when talking to Smokescreen Stealey is the sort that happens when one flicks on the kitchen light for a midnight snack and observes the roaches scurrying for the floorboards. Damnable thing about it is, they come right back out when the lights go off as if nothing had ever happened. The boring repetition isn’t great, but the dreary predictability can be useful.
R. Molyneux <–[actually, the sockpuppet 'David Socrates'] says:
1) He is more knowledgeable than you. He has more exposure to the subject matter than you.
Flat wrong, socks, and how would you know, anyway? Really, how would you know? You certainly don’t know much.
I have been here far longer than Gates. Years longer. I also worked in a closely related field for more than thirty years. It’s very easy to run circles around Gates, which is why he gets so flustered. So your #1 is wrong. But nice try Rodney, and thanx for playing. Next:
2) He has a better command of the English language than you
Don’t make me larf. You have been set straight on your own faulty grammar by a half-dozen other commentators. I didn’t pile on with them, because they were embarassing you way too much already. You were flat wrong. So you don’t even have the knowledge to know who has a better command of English and who doesn’t. Besides, this isn’t an English 101 blog. If it was, you would fail twice.
3) His posts are enlightening, yours are boringly repetitious
To you, maybe. And thanx for your juvenile opinion. Repeating facts is very uncomfortable to someone like Gates, who has no credible facts at all. So I’m not surprised that you and your pal think that my scientific evidence is “boring”. Gates’ posts are very enlightening, for sure: they clearly show that all he has left are insults and name-calling. Every factoid he’s posted has been thoroughly debunked, many times over. He’s out of gas.
He has you beat
I have you both beat, and I’m not even trying.
What I still want to know is: what goosed you? Your comments came out of the blue, completely unsolicited. Why? You never say. A moderator even told you:
[The mods note you have started, then promoted, 25 interruptions in this thread. Are you finished? .mod]
Make that 27 now. You can finish any time. Or maybe they will finish you. But if you keep posting, I will keep asking: what goosed you? Why did you suddenly start with your bogus, incorrect grammar criticism? And why have you continued? There is more to this than you are admitting. Why are you being sneaky about it?
I think you are David Socrates, AKA: beckleybud, AKA: Edward Richardson, etc., etc. A sockpuppet pest who has been banned repeatedly. That’s what I think.
dbstealey says:
“Dr. Spencer has the credibility that you lack.”
How is that credibility wrt his temperature index UAH? When did dbstealey use that credibility and presented UAH TLT instead of or together with RSS?
dbstealey says:
“Produce a verifiable, testable measurement showing the fraction of global warming that is AGW, and I’ll concede the point.”
What kind of measurement dbstealey?
How do you measure your natural variability?
rooter,
Your problem is that Planet Earth is debunking your religious Belief system.
Who should we believe? You?
Or Planet Earth?
One of you is flat WRONG.
Which, rooter?
Also: you don’t measure natural variability. You measure against natural variability. It’s called the Null Hypothesis, which has never been falsified.
You don’t understand that. I’ve tried to teach you, but it’s like trying to teach a dog to juggle chainsaws.
dbstealey has problems:
“Also: you don’t measure natural variability. You measure against natural variability. It’s called the Null Hypothesis, which has never been falsified.”
dbstealey cannot even say what measurements he is referring to. Is it temperature? In that case dbstealy is just assuming that the temperature rise is “natural variability”. And the so called null hypothesis can never be falsified because dbstealey’s measurements equals his explanation.
But I could of course be wrong wrt what kind of measurements dbstealey has in mind. That is: does he have any measurements in mind at all?
of course.
You measure the (untampered!) global average temperature anomaly (each month) against the global average temperature anomaly from the same instruments over as wide an area as possible. Then you plot the results and find …. that global average temperature has NOT risen for the past 18 years + 2 months!
Yet CO2 continues to increase steadily.
There is NO measurable relationship between man’s recent or past release of CO2 and the global average temeprature.
rooter says:
dbstealey has problems
No, rooter, YOU have problems. Psychological problems. Big ones.
You’ve been bird-dogging my comments again — six times tonight alone. It’s like that every night. You need to get a real life. I don’t chase you around the threads, pestering you with inane comments. Why do you do it? You are certainly convincing no one of anything with your religious climate beliefs.
The planet is debunking your Beliefs, rooter. There has been no global warming for many years now. Rational people will look at that and start to wonder why all the predictions of runaway global warming have failed so spectacularly.
But skeptics don’t wonder. We observe. rooter should try that. But he can’t; cognitive dissonance would make his head explode.
Get a life, rooter. The planet says you’re wrong, not me. I simply observe.
dbstealey, I think I know why they do it, why they chase you.
It’s because the debate isn’t for you or him but for the lurkers. The curious who come and observe. They are the ones who must be kept onside.
There are only a few ways to persuade a lurker of your rightness:
1) Prove clearly, logically and from unquestionable axioms that you are right. This is very hard for anything that is complex because the reasonable answer may well be that we don’t know if the evidence is right. and also, if the logic were that clear then the lurkers would already have made up their minds. So that is out.
2) Keep on preaching with unbearable fanaticism until all your opponents lie dead or bored. Then the field is yours and you win. But you are here a lot. You won’t concede the field. So fighting you is the next best thing – being a witness. And it protects others from you – others who may also take part of the field and so catch the attention of the lurkers.
3) Overwhelm the lurker with your personality, wit, fame, beauty (hard in text), compassion, regality or general reputation. The appeal to authority fallacy in miniature. But this blog can easily match anyone who dares take the field. Even my own poor word-smithing can sometimes sparkle shinier than the dull prose of unchallenged academics. This option is too risky.
4) Something else I haven’t thought of:
5) Make the enemy angry. This is the tone of the text – people respond to it emotionally, not intellectually. If lurkers see someone get angry they automatically recoil from Mr Angry’s argument. My father was the favourite tool of the wind-up merchants for years. He was very easy to bait. In his absence you were the next obvious choice. (Well, actually they tried me but I’m not around so much and rather more tolerant of people who hate me).
That’s my opinion as to what is going on here. It’s not about you. They follow you for the benefit of the lurkers.
Remember the failing of RealClimate? the arrogance and incompetence of those self-proclaimed experts was the greatest recruiting sergeant for scepticism we ever had. The Alarmists aren’t stupid (and a lot study social sciences); they will have learnt from that.
And they will be trying to attack on WUWT. If I was one of them, I would be, anyway.
Now back to the Guardian, for me.
Good summary. Thank you.
RACookPE1978, was that to me? It’s a long thread so it’s hard to tell.
If it was, thank you for the compliment – and have you a better point 4?
If it was not, please ignore my presumption.
M Courtney,
A tried and true tactic much used by all sides, including myself. It’s easy when I’m already angry. The supreme irony I have been attempting to point out is that WUWT loyalists apparently do not recognize that it’s a tactic they use every day, including post authors themselves. If you’re going to throw stones, don’t act surprised when the intended targets hurl them right back.
Speaking for myself, whenever I engage here it’s mostly about my own satisfaction. Then yes, any lurkers. Of course I’d like to convince whoever I’m talking to directly but long experience tells me that’s a fool’s errand.
As for db specifically, it is more than just him being a soft target — he actively runs interference. I’ll be having a perfectly reasonable discussion focused on the relevant issues and in he swoops with distracting comments such as, “Don’t listen to Gates, he and his ilk are hung up on their egos and cannot be convinced. All they know how to do is incessantly ask why like children … blah blah blah.”
Which is odious behavior. Stupidly dishonest. And transparently vacuous. He only gets the attention he richly deserves in my view. I don’t expect any kinder treatment here either, it’s abundantly clear to me most readers here feel quite the same about my own activities. So be it.
dbstealey,
ROFL!!! Measuring against something is the same as measuring that thing. No evidence is required to rebut so many of your arguments, all one need to is keep you talking and let you tie your own shoelaces together.
Brandon Gates, I really try not to use the “make people angry” tactic. Because I don’t think it’s very nice (it makes someone feel bad) and it doesn’t help lead anyone to truth.
What’s the point in wining the thread if the thread is tainted?
When I fail I try to apologise because the web truly needs to be a better forum than it is.
I can’t speak for dbstealey but I suggest you consider other, less scornful, interpretations of his actions.
He is here a lot and he knows who we are. Many newcomers don’t know us and so need an introduction. He is very partisan so playing any other role in introductions would be “concern trolling” or even, maybe, deception.
And I speak as someone who has clashed with dbstealey over politics, but we have still maintained a friendly, online relationship. It is possible to disagree and be cordial. I am a self-proclaimed socialist but dbstealey is not.
Mind boggling, Gates.
The whole point here is that it is impossible to separate the influence of CO2 and natural variation. A large part of that is that the majority of natural variation is not understood, because the “climate scientists” got stuck on CO2 as if it was the only player in the game.
Your mocking of that, although I’m sure it seems logical and intelligent to you, demonstrates that you haven’t got a clue what you’re even debating. Not even remotely.
When you can demonstrate ANY demonstrable influence of CO2 on climate, outside of a laboratory and outside of theory, then ALL skeptics will pay attention. But you CAN’T, because it is not possible. Your continued posts here are doing the skeptic side a great service, sadly for you.
M Courtney,
I would prefer not to use rhetorical techniques at all. Some day I may be able to set aside my own emotions well enough to play it absolutely straight most of the time, today is not that day.
My view is that the thread was tainted before the first comment posted. Was depicting scientists as slop-feeding hogs designed to spread good will and erudite debate of issues? This is an example of the notorious WUWT self-blind spot I spoke of in my previous post.
Look no further than the editorial policy of this very website. If the intent is to police the behavior of others, it behooves one to police their own just as aggressively, if not more so. I’m not saying I think you should do this. My comment is more along the lines about thinking about what it would entail.
I already have. My charitable view is that, like me, he strongly believes his position is correct. So when I tell him that his brand of stupid dishonesty cannot be fixed it’s deeply offensive and personal to him, for he does not think he is lying, nor does he think he’s stupid.
That’s a fair point. I well understand the need for the same things to be said over and over in the same forum for this very reason.
One reason why I don’t often comment directly on what I see as WUWT smear tactics is that I myself would consider that concern trolling. And hypocritcally so, it’s no secret I talk trash about WUWT and the personalities here on other blogs.
Yes it is. I’m not capable of doing that with all people, db is one that I can’t.
Something I would not have guessed in a million years. The downside of stereotypes and prejudice bite me again.
CodeTech,
I know very well the underlying argument. I don’t buy it when self-proclaimed “experts” make such assertions. Appeals to personal incredulity don’t interest me, what does interest me are the estimates produced by trained experts in the relevant fields who have published thousands of papers in peer-reviewed journals documenting the painstaking work they’ve done tease the human signal out of the “noise” of internal variability and naturally varying external forcings. The very fact that DB, you, and others don’t distinguish between those essential concepts which I know from literature makes it very easy for the hand-waving assertions of impossibility quite easy to dismiss.
And now you’re making easily falsifiable statements of fact:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
I’m sorry. You were saying something about people not knowing what they’re talking about? Go read Milankovitch theory and tell me that’s ignoring “natural variability”. Good grief, if you want to claim that “my” theory is reality-impaired do try to not demonstrate your own much more clearly evident departure into fantasy-land by utterly failing to recognize what the literature you’re disputing talks about in the first place.
As I said. Keep talking. You’re making skeptics, daily.
CodeTech, I’m well aware that people who have already decided to reject reality will run from it further when their easily falsifiable statements of fact are refuted. You claim that climate science focuses solely on CO2, I’ve shown you evidence that your statement of fact is clearly false. You dig in your heels and cling to a clearly false reality.
My comments aren’t for you. I know convincing you is an exercise in futility. See the discussion about lurkers I’ve been having with M Courtney.
mpainter,
Here’s what “mod” has to say: This is a science site. The internet’s Best Science’ site. Facts rule over opinions here. -mod
?w=720
Here’s an example of the Best Science in the World:
Get stuffed yourself, Painter.
Gates, that pic is *very* mild, compared with the usual death threats against skeptics, and other vicious propaganda. It makes a cogent point, too: the NAS has been corrupted by government money. BIG money.
Note also that Anthony did not write that article. You are welcome to submit a guest article here too, promoting your own views. I sincerely wish you would. You’ve already written enough coments for a dozen articles. Why don’t you give it a try? You will be read by thousands upon thousands of readers, for free.
If that picture is the best you can do, then it matches your other less than convincing arguments. The NAS is on the dole. Taxpayers have the right to express their opinions, and a picture of piggies makes a good point.
And yes, this is the internet’s 3-time winner of the Best Science & Technology website. In only eight years it has rocketed upward, to far more than a million reader comments. It obviously fills a need. Your point of view has been the media narrative for the past twenty or more years. But that narrative is now losing traction because of Anthony Watts, and other skeptics’ sites.
But the biggest reason the mainstream narrative is fading is because the planet is simply not doing as had been incessantly predicted. The real world does not match the predictions. Far from it. This would be self-correcting — if the media and the alarmist crowd paid attention to facts and evidence. But for whatever reason, they do not.
Unless global warming begins to ramp up sharply, and soon, things will only get worse for the rapidly diminishing clique of climate alarmists. But there is no indication of any runaway global warming happening. Or any global warming, for that matter. And once the public loses interest, that’s the end of the scare. When the worm turns, it will go far to the opposite extreme. It always does.
dbstealey, glad you are still on this thread. Hoping you read my comment to you.
You may not agree with me (that’s fine) but please ponder over my thoughts..
M. Courtney,
Your comment @5:37 am today was very incisive. Their arguments have nothing to do with facts or evidence. When the debate is confined to those, skeptics win walking away. The most basic fact is that Planet Earth is not doing anything remotely as predicted by the alarmist crowd.
You are right, I won’t concede the field, any more than Anthony will. To concede would be to admit that alarmist propaganda, lies, and name-calling wins arguments. But as we see repeatedly, when each and every point is argued using scientific evidence, the alarmist crowd ends up name-calling and engaging in projection. That takes the place of their non-existent facts. How many times have I been labeled as “stupid”, and “dishonest”, among numerous other insults. Gates even seems to be proud of his insults and his name-calling! Others who disagree are told by him to “get stuffed”, and so on.
Speaking only for myself, those nasty pejoratives are like water off a duck’s back. They are amusing, because they clearly indicate that the name-caller has completely run out of credible arguments. They certainly avoid discussing things like the Null Hypothesis, or the lack of any global warming [unless it’s to lie about it, and claim that MMGW is still rising].
B. Gates constantly tries to claim that I am the one doing the name-calling, but it’s very easy to see from his own posted comments, that is merely projection. Whatever I might occasionally do in that regard, that he routinely does… doubled and squared [then he scolds the moderation — conveniently forgetting that free speech trumps most everything here]. He would no doubt be very happy with censorship [so long as skeptics are the ones censored]. But there are millions of blogs that censor. This just is just one of the very few that truly gives free speech wide latitude. And of course, no one is forced to comment here, or to read comments.
So I agree with your analysis, Matthew. We’re on the same page there. I’ve been told before that I wear my heart on my sleeve. That is my nature. There is no hidden agenda or game-playing when I post. I tell it exactly as I see it, using verifiable facts and scientific evidence. The alarmists’ response shows that I’m on-target. Some of them get mad, and label me as ‘stupid’, ‘dishonest’, and worse. I am neither; I just point out the truth, and that stings.
dbstealey,
Death threats are an abhorrent practice and I roundly condemn anyone on any side of any debate who engages in them. That said, I’m not interested in your lame justifications, i.e., “Anthony didn’t write this article.” It’s his damn website, DB. He owns its content. Your weak apologia on his behalf means you approve of the content of this post at the very least. Face reality and admit that you have no problem with public expressions of opinion via mockery. I don’t. I don’t need sniveling excuses to do it. If I think someone’s position is illogical, stupid or otherwise patently ridiculous that’s the only justification I need to ridicule it.
Double goes for people like you who engage in mockery but get bent when someone returns the favor. Strap on a pair and own what it is that you do and what it is you support others here doing. Anything else makes you a thin-skinned, cowardly sissy.
Gates, you’re a parody of yourself. You keep ratcheting up the name-calling and the juvenile insults. You’ve confirmed everything I wrote above, in the most pathetic way you can.
I suppose when insults and name-calling are all you’ve got, that’s what you will use.
Me? I have plenty of facts and evidence:
Exhibit #1: global warming has stopped. And not just recently, but many years ago. The alarmists’ consternation over that plain fact is so thick that skeptics could cut it with a knife. You simply cannot admit that you were so completely wrong.
Exhibit #2: The climate Null Hypothesis has never been falsified. There is nothing either unprecedented or unusual happening. In fact, our current climate is a real “Goldilocks” climate. We are very fortunate for that.
Exhibit #3: There are still no measurements of AGW. Not one! After more than 50 years of searching for verifiable, testable measurements, AGW remains only an unproven conjecture.
Sorry for your failed world view. If you were a skeptic, you would have no trouble accepting that you were wrong. But after every alarmist prediction has been repeatedly debunked, you still cling to your falsified belief system. Honest scientists don’t do that. They re-assess. What would it take for you to re-assess?
dbstealey, thank you for answering my comment. I wasn’t meaning to challenge you – rather talk to you.
I respect what you do. If I didn’t I would,mock you, and maybe even fight you. But I don’t.
Yet I fear you are not adapting to those who oppose you and so miss that they are beginning to try and entrap you. Entrap you into mis-presenting your argument by the medium of tone.
Not reason but emotion.
This hypothesis was confirmed in the comments.
My hope had been that we could cross the divide and talk like friends with the alarmist but that was not to be. Still, no faux pas!.
I am proud that I am childish…
No-one, but us, is left watching this thread. It is effectively as private as anything,
[No. There is still yet another. /Star Wars .mod]
:”Exhibit #1: global warming has stopped. ”
…
Does that mean 2015 will be the warmest year in the record?
dbstealey,
At the surface and in the lower troposphere. Not so much in the upper two kilometers of ocean where heat continues to accumulate unabated:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/itemp2000_global.png
I quote you from above: Next,you are claiming, as usual, that coincidental corellation is causation. I won’t waste pixels setting you straight.
Explain to the class how one can falsify H0 when there’s a strong correlation. One that was predicted in 1896 on the basis of physical theory and observation. Take your time.
Changes in radiative fluxes measured at the surface: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL018765/full
Changes in radiative fluxes measured from space: https://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/physics/Public/spat/John/Increase%20in%20greenhouse%20forcing%20inferred%20from%20the%20outgoing%20longwave%20radiation%20spectra%20of%20the%20Earth%20in%201970%20and%201997.pdf
Two papers out of thousands doing such measurements. And yet you say no such measurements have been done. Yours is credible behavior how, exactly?
“global warming has stopped”……??????
…
Not according to RSS
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2011/plot/rss/from:2011/trend
Cherry-picked lies!!
Long term shows warming too Brandon
..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/plot/rss/trend
MCourtney:
I admire dbstealey’s persistence and equanimity under the sort of low-trash provocation dealt out by the likes of rooter, Gates, rodmol, and their kidney.
He sets a good example of responding to their trash talk with irrefutable science. They wind up making themselves look bad. Stealey has taken their measure and he knows how to deal with them.
Bbbbbuttt … Paraguay!!
Don’t worry about Paraguay
..
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1996-11-22/business/9611220333_1_paraguay-98th-mcdonald
You can’t distract me with Big Macs, warmist.
So, Gates, the hand-waving BS you spewed up there to counter my post is enough to you, but it’s completely useless to the rest of the world. The childish insult was also humorous, but not very creative.
See, after having an epiphany I walked away from a very lucrative business opportunity related to “global warming” back in 2001 or 2002. I realized where the problems were with the science, or as I like to say, “science”. See the quotes? They’re important.
Your childish claim that I’ve somehow been denying reality? That’s YOU. You will say or do whatever it takes to avoid having that epiphany. Of course you will. You have blinded yourself to reality, because reality doesn’t fit your naive worldview.
The louder you spin, the more desperate your claims (you may not see it this way, but you reek of desperation) the more sane people start to wonder why you’re so gullible. So keep spinning. Unlike you, I want my opponents to put it all out there. I study both sides. If you had something credible I’d look. But you have presented NOTHING CREDIBLE, and you are unlikely to, ever.
CodeTech,
Here’s your original statement: A large part of that is that the majority of natural variation is not understood, because the “climate scientists” got stuck on CO2 as if it was the only player in the game.
Here again is the evidence that your creative opinion of reality is false:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
Now you’ve moved the goalposts. Yet somehow it’s my worldviwew that’s naive. Good one.
Go ahead – increase your desperation. Eventually you’ll get it… today is not that day.
And you’d be wise (for once) to stop assuming I’m an idiot.
CodeTech, dishonest not stupid is more what I’m going for here.
Well you’re succeeding in both. You definitely appear dishonest.
CodeTech,
Well sure. I believe something that you don’t, just by virtue of me talking about it I must be lying.
Why even bother, Gates? You’ve already called me ignorant and a liar. Do you think there’s ANYTHING you could possibly type that I would give a crap about?
Personally I think you’re hopelessly stupid, but I’d never come out and throw that in your face.
CodeTech
My default assumption is that people who have already decided that AGW is a farce will not be convinced of anything anyone has to say to the contrary, no matter how “nice” they are about it.
lol, and that comment itself is exempt …. why, exactly?
Now this little spat between us is real easy to understand. You made the claim: A large part of that is that the majority of natural variation is not understood, because the “climate scientists” got stuck on CO2 as if it was the only player in the game.
This plot shows far more than CO2 being the only player in the game:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
So your statement is false. Rather than cop to it, you whine that I’ve called you a liar or reality-impaired. Well … is there another option?
Gates says:
…people who have already decided that AGW is a farce…
…have generally done a lot of research to arrive at their conclusions. Also, Gates’ typical strawman response tries to ignore the fact that most skeptics think AGW exists. The problem for alarmists is that if AGW exists, it is obviously minuscule — too tiny to measure. Thus, it can be completely disregarded as a waste of time and energy.
Gates continues to be his obnoxious and despicable self, by labeling others that he is incapable of refuting as stupid liars. I don’t know about CodeTech, but I have no doubt whatever that Gates would never dare to call me those names if he was in my presence, unless he was considerably larger than my 6’3″, 198# frame. And if he was, then he wouldn’t be the kind who needed to call names. Would he?
I have found that people likre Gates, who call others names from the satety of their keyboard, are total cowards in person. Gates shows no indication of being any different.
Sir Harry Flashman, Not in Boston
Sooo, what you’re really saying is that you do not know what Occam’s Razor is.
Well Sir HF, I agree with you that it is a huge problem for the NAS to be demanding anything.
But as far as the climate goes, I haven’t experienced any problems with it.
To me, change in the climate (AKA weather) will always occur and we can’t change it or predict it, so we might as well just live with it.
Here in Northern California, we have just had two; count ’em two “unprecedented” 100 year soaker rainstorms in just the last three weeks, and neither one of them was worth writing home about.
Don’t see where “Occam’s Razor comes into the discussion.
G
Actually no, Occams’ Razor as applied to climate is that natural variation, which has always driven climate change is what is driving climate now. That is the null hypothesis. The conjecture that we humans are doing something to the climate is just that; conjecture, nothing more. There has been a bit of warming, some of which has been exaggerated, but even that exaggerated warming is not a problem, except to the climate bedwetters. Cooling, on the other hand, would be a problem, and that is probably what is in store for us. Hopefully, it won’t be a severe one, such as the LIA.
What drives climate is not natural variation, but forcings, which can take many forms, most of them natural. However, currently the critical forcing is human greenhouse gas emissions; generations of work in a multitude of scientific disciplines have proven it. It’s not actually conjecture at all.
The idea that the planet is cooling is just a fantasy, short of a nuclear war or a supervolcano eruption.
SHF, Can you quantify these ‘forcings’? Both natural and unnatural of course.
If I had a dime for every time someone asked me to “prove” something on this site then dismissed the linked papers as merely part of a corrupt conspiracy, I’d be living on a private island, Meanwhile, everyone else is saying pretty much whatever random thoughts come into their head and getting hearty pats on the back for it. Seriously it doesn’t seem fair, and it’s certainly a waste of time.
But I don’t want to leave anyone hanging – if you want proof check out the IPCC reports or for that matter google natural vs anthropogenic climate forcings and read to your heart’s content.
SHF says:
What drives climate is not natural variation…
Wrong.
To help educate someone who really needs it, here is the world’s preeminent climatologist, MIT’s director of atmospheric studies, Prof. Richard Lindzen:
So there is no need whatever to invoke an external variable like CO2 to explain anything. Natural climate variability is the natural condition of the planet.
Finally, ‘Harry’ sez:
…if you want proof check out the IPCC reports…
This guy is so deluded that he believes the IPCC reports are “proof”. We have a lot of work ahead of us if we ever hope to educate the closed-minded. Is it worth it?
No, probably not.
But in case new readers might be influenced by his kind of illogical comments, it’s necessary to set the record straight. SHF lives in his own universe, and he has his own ideas. They don’t compute, but that’s the kind of nonsense we’re confronted with every day.
Fortunately, the public is coming around, as shown by the 122,000+ reader comments in the recent Telegraph article, and their poll, which skeptics are dominating by a 12:1 margin.
The fictitious character Sir Harry Flashman is technically correct, in that “natural variation” is not an explanation, or even a list, of the factors that may drive climate changes. It is merely a label for the Null Hypothesis, which is essentially that the same factors that have driven climate changes for ages have done so, without any contribution from mankind or fossil fuel burning, in the few decades since the 1970s.
That being said, Bruce Cobb is also correct that the Climateers’ claim, that the principal driver of climate changes since the ’70s is anthropogenic CO2, is pure speculation—not even an hypothesis, because there is no evidence for it. It is basically a variation on the Argument from Ignorance, i.e. “We cannot build models that generate a few decades of warming without introducing extra CO2” (“given our limited knowledge of Earth’s climate[s]”—unspoken, of course).
This, however, was really an excuse. The plan, since the ’70s, led by globalists like Maurice Strong and Margaret Meade, was to create a supposedly ‘scientific’ argument that Mankind was endangering the Earth with our fossil fuels, and that it would take a concerted worldwide political and scientific effort to prevent a planetary catastrophe. It was brilliantly successful, enlisting a coterie of ‘climate scientists’, and jumping on the bandwagon of the new ‘Environmental’ movement; it quickly because a cause celebré of the world’s political and academic elites.
Thankfully, Mother Nature has made it hard to sustain the myth of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, and the population at large has grown weary of “The End is Nigh!” proclamations (despite the exhortations of the President of the United States). So we now have academics suggesting that they stir up some new hysteria, by throwing out suggestions that they may have to fight “climate change” by “geo-engineering” the world.
Lord knows they are not serious, but myths like these can take on a life of their own. Remember the suicide of the Xhosa who killed off all their cattle because of a prophecy:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-parallels-in-our-time-the-killing-of-of-cattle-vs-carbon/
It could happen here.
/Mr Lynn
Flashman,
An evil game that one, innit. One of DB’s favs is, “Hey Gates, show me some evidence that everyone on all sides can accept and I’ll believe your story.” Which makes me want to self-lobotomize with a pitchfork just to make the pain stop.
Well, please then, SHF, if generations of work in a multitude of scientific disciplines has proven that human emissions of greenhouse gases are a critical climate forcing, then it should be no problem to produce a single data set which shows a clear CO2 signal in the temp record, right? In other words, since such a thing does not exist, where is the proof?
SHF, I checked out all of the Ph.D. level Oregon petition signers from my state and they were legit.
Bones – I give you credit for that. I just did a quick onceover, maybe there’s more to it than I know. But I remain skeptical.
@SHF,
Here is how it works, at least among professionals: bones says he checked his state, and he shows that your assertion was wrong. Fair enough, right? He did the work to show you that your belief is mistaken.
Now the ball is in your court. You need to either acknowledge that he’s correct, or you need to show where bones is mistaken. He did the work. So by still questioning it, without any data, you look petty.
If you have something to refute bones, then post it here. If not, then accept his work. That’s what a professional would do. If you don’t, you will look like Gates. No one wants to be that unprofessional.
=================
Mr. Lynn, you’re correct, natural variability is the default explanation — but it is not a list of forcings. It doesn’t need to be. Skeptics are not obligated to provide a list of forcings since skeptics do not have anything to prove, but the alarmist crowd needs to show convincingly that human CO2 emissions are the cause of temperature fluctuations. That is their claim; their conjecture. Their opinion. But they have never been able to provide anything more than baseless assertions, which is why their conjecture is foundering.
Prof Richard Lindzen provided a good explanation of why global T fluctuates by a few tenths of a degree. No one has ever demonstrated that he is wrong. They won’t even try.
Lee says:
SHF, Can you quantify these ‘forcings’? Both natural and unnatural of course.
No, he can’t. It’s all speculation. Opinion. Conjecture.
There are no measurements of AGW, after more than 50 years of searching. Reasonable people will look at that and conclude one of two things:
1. AGW is just too minuscule to measure, or
2. AGW doesn’t even exist.
I’m in group #1. But for all practical purposes, they are both the same.
A huge problem? really? Compared to what exactly?
Occam’s Razor suggests the simplest explanation is the best explanation, not a random explanation primarily supported by wishful thinking.
Natural variation is by far the simplest explanation, since I don’t know, natural variation has been occurring for millennium.
“Natural variation” isn’t an explanation. It’s a way of saying, “I don’t know, I lack the curiosity to find out, and wouldn’t know where to start even if I wanted to.”
Wrong, Gates. What we are observing is natural climate variability in action. You just prefer the magic gas explanation.
Arch-warmist Dr. Phil Jones shows us that natural variability causes the same changes in trend whether human emissions are low, or high:
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/hadley/Hadley-global-temps-1850-2010-web.jpg
Go argue with Jones about natural variability. You’re wasting your time here unless you have evidence of your own.
“And thirdly, Occam’s Razor is more what you’d call “guidelines” than actual rules. Welcome aboard the Black Pearl, Miss Turner . “
Barbossa
dbstealey,
There’s just no fixing your particular brand of stupid dishonesty, is there.
Gates presents his brand of ‘science’.
Gates says:
There’s just no fixing your particular brand of stupid dishonesty, is there.
I posted a graph, and your response is to call me stupid and dishonest? You have nothing to counter the facts I posted, so now you call names.
Your comment style lately is to inject a nasal snarkiness. I imagine comments like yours as being spoken by Peter Lorre to Humphrey Bogart:
Gates-Ugati hissed, ‘You’re stupid and dishonest! You despise me, don’t you Rick?’
‘If I thought about you, Ugati, I probably would.’
Your comments are devolving into juvenile complaints, Gates. That’s because you have no good answers to my posts.
Your can label me as being dishonest and stupid, but I think even someone like you knows that I am neither of those things. Your problem is that you are trying to support an indefensible narrative with insulting name-calling. You have no facts, or you would have posted them by now.
Run along back to Hotwhopper, Gates, where you make *much* worse insinuations and insults about the commenters here. That’s really your home turf. Here, you’re getting whipped by facts.
dbstealey,
It’s not the posting of the graph, it’s the “argument” you made with it which is stupidly dishonest.
I should fit right in here then, don’t you think?
Ok wise one, how do you respond to gibberish?
Gates keeps digging:
It’s not the posting of the graph, it’s the “argument” you made with it which is stupidly dishonest.
Despite your climbdown, I’ll be happy to answer that: Dr. Phil Jones showed that the same warming trend has occurred repeatedly, whether CO2 was low, or high. That is the argument I made, and despite your immature name-calling, saying it is “stupidly dishonest”, it is, in fact, an extremely good argument — one that you cannot refute. So you fall back on your usual commentary.
Also, this isn’t your home at Hotwhopper. Calling my comment “gibberish” is just your own way of admitting that you have no credible response. They like tantrums like that at your whopper blog. But here we prefer facts and evidence — things you don’t have.
You’ve run out of arguments, Gates. Now all you have left are your insults and your name-calling. If you had any credible facts refuting what I posted, including the Jones chart, you would use them. But you don’t. Really, you have nothing at all.
rodmol,
That’s just your opinion. And you know what they say about opinions…
Just like your grammar critique, though, no one else agrees with you.
I posted facts, such as the fact that you tried to nitpick my grammar here. But nobody agreed with you. I even felt bad about it, seeing so many folks monkey-piling on your obvious error.
So now you take a pot-shot to try and get even. But just like your previous comment, this one has zero content. It was just a nasty drive-by.
Why would you do that? I’ve seen other comments of yours, and they seemed reasonable. So why would you post something that is not only wrong, but which has no evidence? Do I remind you of someone who beat you up in high school?
You can certainly see that Gates is arguing by insult, calling names because he is not able to refute anything I’ve posted. He’s in over his head, but like a typical alarmist, he is totally incapable of admitting that he’s got nothin’.
But why you? Why now? It’s because you were set straight by a lot of other readers, isn’t it? But if you go and re-read their comments and mine, you will see that I’m not arguing with you there. But everyone else is.
If you have any specifics, post them. Otherwise, you’re just being petty.
“If you have any specifics, post them”
Yes, there is one specific.
..
Gates is not suffering the Dunning-Kruger effect.
rodmol,
That is just another insult. Once again: do you have any specifics? Or are you just trolling?
Really. You’re just unhappy because you were wrong in your grammar critique. So now you’re going all Gates on us, and using insults to argue. Why?
“That is just another insult.” ????
…
Please explain how my comment about Mr Gates is an “insult”
dbstealey,
Which is stupidly dishonest. Any fool can see that temperature ends up higher at the end of it all, and anyone with a passing familiarity with CO2 concentration knows that’s the same end where it’s highest as well. You’re talking nonsense of the highest order here and getting butthurt about getting called out for it. Your arguments are weak. You are acting weak. Stop whining and fight a stand up fight if it’s insults you want (because you give plenty), or go actually learn some real science and have an intelligent discussion. It really is just that simple.
Gates, you call me names like “stupidly dishonest” because you lack any credible facts. If you truly believe that I am either stupid or dishonest, then psychological projection is your problem. So let’s stick to verifiable facts, shall we? I don’t think you’re capable. But give it a try.
Now, when I posted Dr. Jones’ chart, I was trying teach you that “the trend repeats”. Trend, get it? No one is arguing that temperatures are no higher now than in the 1800’s, near the end of the LIA. That is just your strawman fallacy. Skeptics know that global T has been rising since the LIA. But we know much more than the alarmist cult. We know that the planet is recovering from one of the coldest episodes of the Holocene — naturally. CO2 has nothing measurable to do with it. And we know that the trend is the same whether CO2 is low or high. That fact alone debunks your ‘carbon’ scare.
Next,you are claiming, as usual, that coincidental corellation is causation. I won’t waste pixels setting you straight.
Next, the entire remainder of your comment is as follows, verbatim:
You’re talking nonsense of the highest order here and getting butthurt about getting called out for it. Your arguments are weak. You are acting weak. Stop whining and fight a stand up fight if it’s insults you want (because you give plenty), or go actually learn some real science and have an intelligent discussion. It really is just that simple.
Gates, that is just more name-calling. YOU are doing the insulting. It’s all you’ve got left. As usual, you do it because you have no credible facts; you’ve really got nothin’, just your juvenile tantrums. I dispute your nonsense with verifiable facts. You say that’s getting ‘called out’. heh. As if. You could hardly be more impotent. All you are doing is being a crybaby because you don’t have verifiable, testable evidence, and skeptics do. In fact, you’ve got nothin’.
I recommend Hotwhopper for you. They are insane there, so they will love your comments. Or the neo-Nazi’s blog. But here, we want credible facts. That’s your weakest point by far, because you have none. All you have are comments like the one I cut ‘n’ pasted. Are you proud of that? You shouldn’t be. Really.
By all means, keep digging your hole. It gives you somewhere to climbdown again.
dbstealey,
For the love of all that is holy, how does the temperature end up higher at the end of it if the trend is simply repeating? Simple math suggests that the downward trends after each runup are not the same? Simple arithmetic.
Gates, if you can’t understand the difference between a trend and a coincidental corellation [and it’s clear you can’t], then you are hopelessly behind the curve.
I recommend reading the WUWT archives for a few months, to try and get up to speed on the subject. But I’ve made that recommendation before and you have consistently ignored it. It’s still good advice.
I don’t know why I keep trying to teach dogs algebra. It never works.
Run along now, you need to get back to SkS or tamina, or wherever you get your misinformation from. You ned some new talking points. The ones you’ve been using are old and busted.
dbstealey,
A third-grader could figure out the flaw in your “argument” about “repeating trends” by doing simple sums. As for coincidental correlations, Arrhenius figured it out in 1896 with a slide rule, which puts you and your magical “natural variability” just shy of 120 years behind the curve. Are you really telling me that you and your “skeptical” brain trust can’t do better than 19th century good old-fashioned pencil and paper calculations? Looks to me like 16th century alchemy is more your style. I can see where this might present a challenge.
@3rd Grader:
Anyone who calls natural variability “magical” can and should be disregarded as a crank.
dbstealey,
Fixed it for you.
I note that this thread consists of commendable science given by dbstealey in response to insults , sneers and snarks by Gates and rodmol, who otherwise offer no science and do not respond to the solid scienceof dbstealey.
I have seen dbstealey request of Gates on many occasions for evidence of AGW, and Gates has never provided any. The last request for such evidence, on this thread I believe, elicited the response from Gates that such requests leave him with the feeling of having been “lobotomized”.
This is the measure of those who come here to espouse the AGW line. Confronted with the science of skeptics, they have no response but insults, sneers and troll tactics, such as displayed on this thread.
At 11:40 am Gates responded to this comment and concluded with “Get stuffed yourself, painter”.
This to show my assessment of Gates is confirmed.
Wow, you guys done now ?
It’s kinda hard to get a word in edgewise.
Then again, when it comes to pissing contests, distance can be a good thing, less chance of being splattered.
Piss, vinegar and beans, punctuated by the occasional flying t*red.
Or maybe, per Occams’ Razor some influencial people sitting on the National Academy of Sciences, like Ken Caldeira – a climate scientist – stand to gain from proposed solutions. Read it all HERE. He has investments in geoengineering solutions start-ups and patents. He gets paid $375,000 a year from Bill Gates to do geoengineering work, holds a carbon capture patent and works for Intellectual Ventures, a private geoegineering research company part-owned by Gates. He was also a contributing author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Sir Harry Flashman your Occams Razor needs sharpening. Now open your eyes and FOLLOW THE MONEY! >>>>>>>>>>>>
Read more
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/06/bill-gates-climate-scientists-geoengineering
http://www.sauberer-himmel.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bill-Gates-is-backing-David-Keith-and-Ken-Caldeira-to-geoengineer-the-earth-extract.pdf
This hairyflesh guy crawls out of his hole, posts a couple comments, gets everybofy all riled up, then crawls back into his hole happily fed. As he said himself, he is an awful person. Take him at his word on that!
“everybody” is the code word for upstart companies looking for research grants
How about a planned mission to Mars instead?
So long as it is a planned and NOT a manned mission.
Life support is not needed to study Mars from the ground; or whatever they call all that red stuff.
I just finished watching a fascinating series called Moon Machines, 6 parts all about Saturn V, the LEM, the command capsule, space suits, guidance, etc. I can’t help but think that virtually every aspect of a new manned space flight program would be far easier, and if there wasn’t a blank cheque written to cover it, far less expensive and reliable.
With the advances made in materials, aerodynamics, computers, manufacturing, etc. it would be interesting to see.
Darn it man it must be manned. It is now believed that there was live there. What if we find fossil fuels there? Now Won’t that turn the Greens for a tizzy. On Mars they couldn’t be “Greens”, they would have to call themselves REDS!
with evil laughter
michael
I respectfully disagree, sir. A manned mission to Mars would capture the public’s imagination, and while it would suck funds out of the treasury at least it would cause no mischief. I believe it was Lindzen who said that the scientific community became alarmed about its continuing collective employment with the wind-down of the space missions, and thus this partly resulted in the CAGW funding snare. While the moon flights were criticized at the time for directing resources away from critical domestic concerns I think we can all agree that nothing has misdirected resources like CAGW; and at least the moon program caused no harm. Additionally, while yet to be clearly stated, we are involved in a fight of ideologies in which the Enlightenment principles of the West are pitted against a much more brutal and primitive, but in human history longer lasting and pervasive, ideology. A Mars mission would disrupt any arguments about all cultural beliefs being relative and present itself as a beacon for a favorable future in which reason and humanity itself is defined as reaching for the stars.
oops meant life there. not live
michael
Well said Tom J.
I want the stars to be my grand children’s playthings.
michael
George,
I disagree. We very much need a manned mission to Mars and back, using nuclear rocket technologies that can reduce transit times to ~ 6 months. Why? We need to focus the energies of the next generation beyond our current horizons. Humanity needs a new frontier to conquer, rather than being inundated with AGW propaganda that leads to little more than planetary navel lint gazing and a profligate waste of taxpayer dollars.
The link below provides a historical summary of the developments leading up to NERVA nuclear rocket technology. This is 45 year old demonstrated technology, viable today.
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19910017902.pdf
yes, let’s send all the climatologists to Mars and study what happened to its atmosphere.
Yeah, and since Mars’ atmosphere is 95% CO2 they’ll be warm and toasty!
No, only send half to Mars and the other half to Venus, to study the atmospheress. I mean, we’re heading one way or the other, but only one of them makes any sense.
Biologists were very early arrivals at the grant trough. The same is true for atmospheric chemists (e.g. the CFC imbroglio). We’re talking about gobs of “free money” here. Can you blame them? It ain’t scientific or even “professional”, it’s greedy human self interest..
Indeed! Biologists invented “environmentalism,” convincing the world that we were pissing in our own mess kit.
Climatologists, seeking relevance, and money, invented CAGW, and succeeded wildly.
Dieticians/nutritionists invented an “obesity crisis,” seeking relevance, and money, and succeeded wildly. Physicists, engineers and chemists, and many, many, other disciplines would love to emulate the model.
Obesity crisis occurred not because of people suddenly gaining weight, but because the threshold for obesity was adjusted downward. Look at that, instant crisis, just by changing numbers on a graph.
A similar thing happened with blood pressure. Imagine my surprise when after a lifetime of having normal blood pressure, I was one year notified I was pre-hypertension. Turns out blood pressure was also re-classified, turns out my blood pressure did not change, just what passed for a blood pressure problem changed.
Obesity crisis, blood pressure crisis, climate crisis, insurance companies love this stuff, it means higher premiums, governments love this stuff cause it means they get to lobby for more control.
Alx,
I suspect that this is the health professionals’ tactic of generating additional revenues for themselves.
I have seen enough to make me wonder if these types are nice people.
This split probably won’t happen any time soon. But- coming soon to your TV set is the POTUS and Kerry saying that the science is settled and the “problem is so grave that the NAS has asked for research into mitigation”. Just in time for Paris. Note how they hope they never have to use geo-engineering techniques- better get after that CO2.
Can they not see that the wheels are falling off this wagon? Greedy human self interest is indeed powerful, Dr. Dave, but I dread the long-term consequence for the reputation of science as a philosophy. Then again, in the age of “vaccines cause autism” and “eight glasses of water” and just so many other mass delusions, well . . .
“The Lunatics have (are trying to) taken Over The Asylum”. OK, lets go screw with Mother Nature….really a bad idea.
Just came across this UNESCO publication from 1973 which includes an article by H. Lamb starting on page 17 and which talks of a cooling trend. “For the past 25 to 30 years the Earth has been getting progressively cooler AGAIN” (my caps). Must have missed that in the IPCC graphs.
Went to Wiki for an overview on Lamb: Compare what is written in Wiki to his statement in the 1973 article re CO2 (see bottom of page 18) to his subsequent statements on this subject a few years later when at U of E A.
unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0007/000748/074891eo.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hubert_Lamb&redirect=no
Obviously a shill for the Koch Bros. /sarc (if necessary)
How can these guys be blamed when most of everyone else have resolved in maverick conning and extortion of the AGW bank!
They just want they share in it.
Besides as it seems they have lowered their selling pitch to a point that the whole business plan and subject consist only in the sale of idea, lately.
Buy the idea and you can use and serve it to depolarize the public.
Is not their fault if the “Eskimos” have become so polarized over the political argument in the prospect of a certain future with no any ice for them in it.
How can they be blamed with their clever business plan of selling ice to “Eskimos” when they clearly not asking for more than a fair price only for the idea and in the same time with the same clarity can show that that will be good for anyone concerned, even for the “Eskimos” them self as they will be pacified, depolarized and turn to be an obedient following flock, certified beyond any doubt that whatever happens one thing will be there always for certain….enough ice for any “Eskimo”!
Is only human to cheat, fool, extort and manipulate another human.
The only problem this time is that it is happening in a massive wide spread scale and from the ones we consider as the brightest and the cleverer minds to be trusted, and it is done in the most vulgar and arrogant possible way.
Probably is the right time for the term ” Joe public” to be replaced by some other term like “Skimo public”.
cheers
OK I have a BIG secret, I want you to take a peek at my humongous, NanoTech AGW reflecto mirror I have been building in my granny’s backyard shed…
“They’re coming to take me away ha ha,
They’re coming to take me away he he,
to the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time,
And I’ll be happy to those nice young men, in their clean white coats”.
Anyone have the RFP? /sarc
So, we have (previous thread) a paper partly (and indirectly) funded by the NAS saying geo-engineering should a bigger part of the climate discussion, followed by a plea from NAS for more money for geo-engineering…
Ah, strike that, my error. The previous paper was indirectly funded by NSF not NAS.
To be fair it is not just climates ‘modellers ‘ getting their snouts in climate trough, there is wide scale of others who have learnt there is grant gold in them there hills , providing your ‘research gives the right results ‘ Has the IPCC is always looking for ‘evdainced ‘ which means it needs to carry on.
“Marcia McNutt”, yes, I think that the name helps to explain quite a a lot.
It’s already too late to stop climate change. We should have started with that 4.5 billion years ago.
But as these guys may tell you…..”Better late than never”……besides it will pacify and depolarize the public.
That is worth some funds….don’t you think! 🙂
Why can’t they have some “gravy” when many others have had much more for not much in return!
cheers
These idiots and their current lack of planetary climate understanding proposing geoengineering for a problem that doesn’t exist is frightening. It reminds me of that Nirvana album cover with the baby and .44 magnum.
Here is a “Training Film” for N-A-S. Should put Marcia in good “Geo-engineering” mood too. Ha ha 😉
I bet our man Flint could stop the Climate Hoax, save the world and be back in time for Martinis and beautiful women by 7:00.
We may need that star ship if these wackos get enough money to start fiddlin with the climate. Evidently many of them never heard of photosynthesis.
They are using geoengineering as a stick to beat people with. They are saying “you don’t like climate mitigation”? OK then, how about geoengineering instead? Because those are your choices.
No, there’s a third choice – reality and actual science, not myths and fairy tales.
And if Physicists, Engineers and Chemistry majors spoke out about the global warmists and alamist scientists, it would make life a lot easier for all of them.
They know what these charlatans are doing, more so than the average mug in the street.
They know if they practiced the same shonky science in their chosen disaplines they’d be quickly “slapped” into line by government.
With a please explain or two.
It is their collective silence that is killing the publics confidence in science right across the board.
Physicists, Engineers and Chemistry majors can change it only if they speak up and expose the absolute fraud of catastrophic anthropological global warming.
Leigh,
You have the Bully Pulpit of Obama the Magnificent and the media and the educational system all against you, plus some of those in the sciences put their jobs on the line going against consensus science. Not so easy as you think. It is also difficult to actually talk real science to the great unwashed masses, at leasy half of whom are relatively illiterate and very innumerate ( math illiterate), know little or no science and no accurate history. Better to ask them who is on Dancing with the Stars or some such rubbish.
And some physicists and chemists also consider themselves climate scientists. And now you will also have “geoengineers.” It will be tough to convince them, en masse.