Many Thanks to Kevin Trenberth for Being Open-Minded

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

UPDATE (Dec. 24, 2014):  Looks like someone at NCAR wasn’t as open minded as I thought.  The links at Kevin Trenberth’s media page to my blog have been removed.  Good thing I archived it.

# # # #

We’ve discussed the work and opinions of NCAR’s Dr. Kevin Trenberth in many blog posts over the years. As recent examples, Trenberth’s opinions on the unusual warming in the extratropical North Pacific and on the possibility the PDO may have switched phases were discussed in Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming… (WattsUpWithThat cross post.) We discussed how in 2007 Dr. Trenberth revealed the weak underbellies of climate models in the post Seven Years Ago, An IPCC Lead Author Exposed Critical Weaknesses of the IPCC Foretelling Tools. (WUWT cross post.) And with respect to the possible impacts of the 2014/15 El Niño on global surface temperatures, we have the post The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 9 – Kevin Trenberth is Looking Forward to Another “Big Jump”. (WUWT cross post.)

I recall this subject coming up on one of the WUWT threads this year, but I wanted to write a post solely about this subject, to bring it to everybody’s attention.

TRENBERTH LINKS MY BLOG POSTS AT ONE OF HIS NCAR WEBPAGES

I fully understand that this is not an endorsement by Dr. Trenberth but I also understand that this does not mean he’s disputing the content. Under the heading of “Watts Up With That postings | January 31, 2014” on his Media webpage, Dr. Trenberth provides the titles and links to 11 of my blog posts, starting in January 2013 and ending in January 2014.

Watts Up With That postings | January 31, 2014

The first post is linked to a cross post at WattsUpWithThat. The others are linked directly to my website Climate Observations.

Again, I do not take that as an endorsement of my work. But I do find it extremely remarkable that a lead author of the IPCC’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Assessment Reports would link blog posts written by someone who’s a student of his work on ENSO, but at the same time skeptical of his beliefs on global warming and climate change. Remarkable.

Many thanks to Kevin Trenberth for being so open-minded. It is unfortunate that there aren’t more climate scientists like him who are willing to present data-based findings that oppose their research.

Maybe someday, maybe when he retires, Dr. Trenberth and I can discuss ENSO and its long-term impacts on global surface temperatures and ocean heat.

(Just in case others at NCAR aren’t as open-minded, I’ve archived that webpage here.)

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December 2, 2014 3:47 am

I agree

December 2, 2014 3:51 am

Why does someone have to retire before speaking openly about the science?

Reply to  Rob Dawg
December 2, 2014 4:11 am

They probably enjoy getting a weekly paycheck…

LeeHarvey
Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 5:35 am

Achieving tenure would accomplish the same goal.

Roberto
Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 7:04 am

Judith Curry can tell you about many other maneuvers for encouraging the desired behavior in the ranks. Will your works get grants? Will your students be treated fairly during their career? Recognition. Promotion, Referee work. Opportunities to represent the field, or to help coordinate the development of the field. And so on. There’s not much joy on the shun list. Just the knowing that you didn’t sell out.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 10:00 am

They do tend to act like a bunch of 6 to 8 year old children in trying to enforce conformity.

Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 10:13 am

To pay for their bad habits like sleeping indoors and eating every day.

Sleepalot
Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 9:11 pm

Mikerestin “To pay for their bad habits like sleeping indoors and eating every day.”
Things they would deny the rest of us.

Brian Macker
Reply to  dbstealey
December 3, 2014 6:14 am

Tenured Profs can be denied research funds and move to a basement office.

Roberto
Reply to  dbstealey
December 3, 2014 6:49 am

I forgot a big one. The joys of the shun list may also include the knowledge that your judgment was sound, your work was done with discipline, and over time it will hold up better than the popular stuff.

Reply to  Rob Dawg
December 2, 2014 1:51 pm

Neither Trenberth nor Tisdale said Trenberth had to retire to speak openly about the Science.

December 2, 2014 3:52 am

Dr. Trenberth has been very gracious when I have contacted him several times in the past with questions about his positions on AGW – and I told him right up front that I was a skeptic. He also didn’t know anything about me or my character, which requires a leap of faith and some courage when its considered that in the rough and tumble issue of climate debates there are some who might be looking to snare their opponents in a “gotcha” moment. He could have ignored my inquiries, but he didn’t. I give Dr. Trenberth great credit for that.

ironicman
Reply to  eburke93
December 2, 2014 1:47 pm

And being a humble kiwi with a sense of humor, I suppose we’ll have to forgive his atmospheric zeal even though it has cost the human race a lot of time and money.

Evan Jones
Editor
December 2, 2014 3:52 am

Yes, yes. If those who disagree cannot rationally discuss the science, we learn far less and fall victims of our own confirmation bias.

David Ball
Reply to  Evan Jones
December 3, 2014 6:33 pm

The alarmists have been rude, underhanded and conniving for three decades. Are you suggesting we just forget the goalkeeping and their incorrect science? They are being shown to have been wrong ( I think completely). Why do we have to play nice and include them? What benefit could this possibly bring? They will follow willingly when the meme changes ( think pay check ). Cram the unnecessary “turn the other cheek” garbage. Should we rub their noses in it? No. But we should ignore them as there is nothing of value there.

johnmarshall
December 2, 2014 3:53 am

Now we would like an explanation of why his energy exchange diagram in AR4/5 has no day/night cycles which introduces the GHE to find the missing heat.
Thanks Bob.

MikeB
Reply to  johnmarshall
December 2, 2014 4:46 am

John, you seem to hav e the greatest trouble understanding the simplest of things. Try this
http://scienceofdoom.com/2010/02/06/the-earths-energy-budget-part-one/
…and if you still can’t understand it then write your questions on a post card and stick it up the chimney in time for Xmas.

richard verney
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 5:15 am

I suppose this comment was supposed to be sarcastic, and that you simply omitted the tag, since the Earth receives, at the equator, solar input for only about 12 hours per day, and at the poles there are periods when all but no solar input is received for some 3 months, yet the Earth radiates away energy 24/7 some 365 days a year. The differences between input and output are fundamentally different.
Weather is caused by the constrast of conditions. which of course drives the heat pump form equator to poles, such that if the energy budget was truly as set out in the K & T energy budget, the weather on planet Earth would be very different

Michael 2
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 7:38 am

When SoD finally gets it figured out why Venus is so warm maybe I will think its science is settled.
But I’ll admit that an “energy budget” is a pretty good first order description. It is more than I can provide.

AlecM
Reply to  MikeB
December 4, 2014 12:06 am

@Brandon Gates
You claim the atmosphere (~30 m near the surface) is at a (mean) much lower temperature that the surface (2.8 vs 5.8 deg C). This is a correct radiation calculation but Figure 2.5 of Houghton’s ‘Physics of Atmospheres’ shows that there is zero such temperature difference.
He stated this for a grey body atmosphere, bear with me on that. The reason is lapse rate convection and advection, particularly the condensation and evaporation over most of the Earth’s surface. In other words he knew then, but has apparently forgotten. that the surface does not participate in the two-stream radiation equilibrium in the atmosphere.
There is no such temperature difference; none has ever been proven experimentally, ergo the Enhanced GHE does not exist.
@Trick
The reason for the above is that the S-B equation predicts a Potential Energy Flux, not real. This is because when Poynting Vectors add as vectors, on average the surface Emittance in the non self-absorbed GHG bands mutually annihilate with the Emittance in the same wavelengths from the atmosphere in the opposite direction. – VECTOR SUMMATION. The only net IR is ~40 W/m^2 in the atmospheric window and ~23 W/m^2 in the non self-absorbed H2O bands, absorbed and emitted over kilometres, little warming.
This excruciating failure to understand radiative physics has destroyed any pretence by Atmospheric Science that it is a Science. We engineers have been using View Factors in radiation calculations for a Century to solve real Radiation Problems, in my case rolling mills,casting plants, paint ovens, ovens for glueing cars. We get it right; Atmospheric Science gets it wrong. View Factors are the geometry of the VECTOR SUMMATION of Irradiances, proven experimentally for a Century. Trenberth, poor soul, got it WRONG!

Trick
Reply to  MikeB
December 4, 2014 11:25 am

AlecM 12:06am – I’ve ordered a copy of Houghton 3rd. ed. 2002. Will follow up.
However you have to realize the Trenberth cartoon posted by MikeB 6:46am is more from measurement not analysis, it is accurate so far as the measurements, all cited, are good. Evaporation – measured, thermals – measured, rain runoff – measured, insolation & albedo – measured, earth & atm. emittance – measured, all over the 4 year time frame the paper covers.
Being incorrect on the Planck function * emissivity = emittance fundamentals is in AlecM court alone. Trenberth et. al. & genre mainly use measurements for earth energy balances. They do not use analytical LBLRTM yet other pros doing so obtain the ~same answers as close as instruments can measure (instrumental precision). So Planck function * S-B emissivity works in nature as a real emittance not a potential.
You alone continue to make the analytical mistake “..the S-B equation predicts a Potential Energy Flux, not real.” Planck function * S-B function simply does not agree with you. All emittance is real not potential. All mass radiates.
“Emittance in the non self-absorbed GHG bands mutually annihilate with the Emittance in the same wavelengths”
This is incorrect, for the photons do not interact with each other – do not annihilate each other, photons live in a bath. The death of photons is absorptance. Their birth is emittance. Their life is transmittance and reflectance. All covered in a decent modern text on atmosphere radiation.
Technically speaking – sure, the photons can be thought of as EM waves. Two perpendicular vector fields (E & H). The vector summation you mention is irrelevant as we don’t live in a world of simple EM waves – how on earth could anyone sum the electric and magnetic waves arriving from the walls, computer screen, floor, ceiling, light bulb( s) or sun, furniture where you read this (if you do). Fortunately, one doesn’t have to often determine these vector fields but can go straight to the desired scalar quantity, radiant energy transport. Determining the time rate of change of electric and magnetic energy within a bounded volume and noting that this is equal to the integral of the Poynting vector over the bounding surface is irrelevant to the Trenberth cartoon. Why? Those sources of light (visible and near visible) are incoherent and measured.
It’s perfectly good science to add the radiant energy from each source as phase differences wash out when integrated over space and time (spatial and temporal in TFK09 terms). Another reason is that the wavelengths of interest are much smaller than the objects with which the atm. radiation interacts (Planck makes this a basic assumption right in his paper). If your application has wavelengths of orders of meters or more, sure then Planck function might be in trouble.
More needed? Just ask. The Trenberth cartoon and others are solid, basic radiative physics as measured. Many tens of authors produce those balances, before TFK09 and after.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  MikeB
December 4, 2014 5:29 pm

AlecM,

You claim the atmosphere (~30 m near the surface) is at a (mean) much lower temperature that the surface (2.8 vs 5.8 deg C).

No. I claimed that downwelling IR at the surface implies an atmosphere which is on balance cooler than the surface. (Note: that’s 2.8 vs 15.8. I make typos too …)

[Houghton] stated this for a grey body atmosphere, bear with me on that.

I understand the distinction between grey and black body. For 1st year conceptual back-of-napkin approximations, treating the atmosphere as a black body is close enough since emissivity is effectively unity at the relevant wavelengths.

The reason is lapse rate convection and advection, particularly the condensation and evaporation over most of the Earth’s surface.

Lapse rate is related to ideal gas law; obviously a gas changing pressure will — all else being equal — change temperature. All else is not equal of course, but neglecting other energy transfers a rising parcel will cool off as it goes. When it comes back down it will compress and heat back up. Net energy change = 0.
Think of a rock thrown skyward having just shy of the same kinetic energy when it returns to ground, the difference being interaction with the atmosphere which it gained back in thermal energy. Net energy change = 0.
Of course, the rock to start upward in the first place it must have gained the kinetic energy from somewhere, in this case your arm. The reason the atmosphere heats up at the surface is also due to an external energy source, in this case solar energy having been absorbed by the surface and thence transferred to the air via sensible, latent and radiant heat. Now, while our rock lost some kinetic energy on its ballistic arc, it also did lose some of the thermal energy it gained by interacting with the atmosphere as it went. So too does an air parcel as it rises and falls.
Lapse rate does not impart a NET change in energy over a full up/down cycle. Both the rock and atmosphere lose energy due to radiative transfer out they rise and fall. On balance, air comes back just a tad cooler than when it left because of that radiative loss. The rock probably nets more thermal energy than it loses … all analogies do break down at some point.
The latent heat transfers in the water cycle are a somewhat different matter because now phase changes are involved. Evaporation at the surface is endothermic, leading to most of the cooling at ground level. As convection carries it to altitude, lapse rate kicks in which dissipates much of the absorbed energy. When the moist air cools sufficiently the water condenses back to liquid, an exothermic process. The surrounding atmosphere gains most of what the surface lost from the latent heat transfer, precipitation comes back down even cooler than when it left. Not being a gas at that point, lapse rate isn’t as significant — liquid precipitation reaches the ground faster than the warmer air at lower altitudes can transfer energy to it.
In sum, at the surface, the water cycle is the dominant cooling mechanism. On balance, mind. The GHG effect is mostly a midldling altitude effect, usually cited as a few kilometers. Above that altitude, GHGs have a net cooling effect since, as we should all know, good absorbers are also good emitters. The closer a radiatively active molecule gets to TOA, the higher the probability that upwelling radiation will make it back out to deep space and the lower probability that downwelling will again strike the surface.

In other words he knew then, but has apparently forgotten. that the surface does not participate in the two-stream radiation equilibrium in the atmosphere.

It has not been “forgotten”. Latent and sensible heat transfers from the surface to the mid-troposphere are both represented quite clearly, dead center bottom of the commonly cited energy budget diagrams. Everything I think I understand about this stuff comes from the very fact that none of it has been forgotten … quite the opposite, it’s been extensively studied and discussed in the primary literature far and beyond what is found in college texts. How else would the texts come to be written (and revised) in the first place?

There is no such temperature difference; none has ever been proven experimentally, ergo the Enhanced GHE does not exist.

Negative. Cooler bodies emit less radiative energy than warmer ones. The radiative calculations yield up effective temperature, not actual temperature. Effective temperature is how warm (or cool if you like, but everything is warm relative to 0 K) an object appears when observed from a distance via emitted radiation. Since ground-based instruments “see” the entire thickness of the atmosphere in clear sky conditions, their sensors pick up an effectively averaged temperature reading through the entire column of atmosphere they are observing. Those measurements are not dead-on of course because of Rayleigh scattering, particulates, water droplets, high altitude ice crystals and the like. Cloudy sky conditions are even trickier, especially when attempting to do global averaging since they mask the upper atmosphere from ground-based instruments.
Did I mention observations? Yes I did. For empirical data, I refer you to one of the most excellent, informative and interesting climate related posts I have seen on any blog in recent memory, “A First Look at SURFRAD” by Willis Eschenbach: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/25/a-first-look-at-surfrad/
I have downloaded complete datasets for four of the observing stations with observations ranging from 1995 to present. (Las Vegas only goes back to ’98, the other three to ’95.) I have summed up the observed downward and upward IR observations, the results are:
dw_ir uw_ir avg_temp station
------ ------ ------ ------
288.17 372.62 11.92 colorado
319.65 371.02 11.35 illinois
303.95 426.43 18.64 las vegas
347.79 402.11 16.70 missouri
------ ------ ------ ------
314.89 393.05 14.65 average
272.98 288.54 effective temp (K)
-0.17 15.39 effective temp (C)
0.74 effective - actual temp (C)

The average upwelling IR is within 3 W/m^2 of the 390 published in the energy budget diagram in MikeB’s
December 2, 2014 at 6:46 am post. Downwelling does not fare as well, being on the low side of 324 W/m^2 by 9. Yet for 4 stations at roughly similar, therefore non-representative of the entire planet, the results are compellingly close to the expected, globally representative, average values. The key takeaway is that these observations conform to the theoretical relationship. (I’ll spare you most of my standard lecture on “proof” not applying to induction. Suffice it to say that proof is for logic and math, not non-trivial empirical science.)
There are a few other points of interest in these observational data. Note the good correlation between UWIR and average temperature. S-B trumphs again, predicted temperature is inside 1 K of observed. However, note that DWIR does not follow the exact same relationship. To wit, the ratio of down/up are slightly different for each station:
0.77 colorado
0.86 illinois
0.71 las vegas
0.86 missouri

Think about the molecule in the atmosphere which is the most dominant IR emitter on an instantaneous basis — ON BALANCE — and then review your statements about observation not conforming to theory. Ask yourself why any other IR emitter, spectral differences aside, would follow some vague and ill-defined (or just plain garbled) alternative laws of physics.

Trick
Reply to  MikeB
December 11, 2014 9:57 am

AlecM 12:06am – Received my copy of the Houghton text you mention. Fig. 2.5 does not show a zero temperature difference at the surface but does show near zero difference at mid-latitude tropopause. Houghton even wrote: “…at the surface there is a discontinuity in temperature” in Fig. 2.5. So your comment about zero such difference in surface temperature does not check out.
“…the Enhanced GHE does not exist.”
Your own ref. Houghton p. 15 disagrees, explains “the surface temperature…will be very considerably enhanced” by a thick optical depth atmosphere.

MikeB
Reply to  johnmarshall
December 2, 2014 6:46 am

This is an energy budget diagram.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/trenberth-color-best.jpg
It has no predictive ability. It is not a means of forecasting the weather nor describing the weather. It says nothing about climate sensitivity. It is a schematic showing, roughly, how much energy comes into the system and where that goes. Energy in must equal energy out. That’s all it is.
It is nothing to be frightened of.

Genghis
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 7:53 am

MikeB – “It is nothing to be frightened of.”
It is also totally wrong and fraudulent because it ignores the Oceans energy cycle, which is the dominant factor in our climate.
Lying by omission is still lying.

AlecM
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 9:23 am

324 W/m^2 ‘back radiation’ does not exist, being a Radiant Emittance, a Potential Energy Flux to a sink at Absolute Zero. You can’t blame Trenberth for this, being a Meteorologist, because they have taught this incorrect physics for ~70 years and imagine that their ‘Pyrgeometer’ instrument measures it.
The other problem with Atmospheric Science is that it transposes Emittance for Emissivity. For proof of these errors see this MIT teaching module and the next module: http://web.mit.edu/16.unified/www/FALL/thermodynamics/notes/node134.html
No wonder Atmospheric Science has run into a dead end and Trenberth is desperately tying to find ‘missing heat’ that never existed.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 10:09 am

I’m with MikeB on this.
The “energy budget diagram”, much like diagrams of Highs, Lows, Cold & Warm Fronts, Hadley Cells, and other such things have been in earth science text books from before Kevin T. was a gleam in his parent’s eyes. Such cartoon-like images have a use. Don’t blame Kevin for inventing it, nor for using the concepts where they apply. It was never intended to be a complete explanation of Earth’s dynamic coupled ocean and atmospheric systems.
Relax.

richard verney
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 10:13 am

Mike
i fully understand that it is an erergy budget, but the energy is not received like that. The energy in is received in bursts, whereas the energy out is 24/7, but in varying quantities.
That budget in no way describes what is going on on planet Earth.
The oceans do not absorb as described, and below TOA, the major dirvers are conduction and convection, and it would appear that radiative transfer does little more than dotting the Is and crossing the Ts, but remaining a bit player.

NZ Willy
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 10:20 am

Where’s the entropy in this diagram?

Alberta Slim
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 10:43 am

How can back radiation [324] exceed that from that absorbed by the earth[168]???

george e. smith
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 11:43 am

Like Ghengis, I am unhappy that this “energy” budget, which actually purports to be more than a “budget”, a static journal entry, so it shows energy flows here and there but sadly as Ghengis points out, makes no accounting of the enormous oceanic energy flows from equatorial warm waters to the polar regions; which are quite unsuitable for expelling that energy back to space.
But on balance, I might take KT’s wings back from him, and re-instate him as a real denizen of the land of flightless birds.
And yes he does have a great smile. Well all Kiwi folk do.

Trick
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 12:08 pm

AlecM 9:23am: There is no dead end. “On reflection, I like reflectivity and emissivity.” Wolfe, 1982, Applied Optics, Vol 21, p.1. If the term emittance is to be used at all it is best reserved as an abbreviation for emitted irradiance (or radiance). In the spirit of photometric dimensional quantities (radiance, irradiance, luminance, etc) emittance ought to be emissivity times the Planck function and so it is in the piece you link which has no error as it defines the terms used in math. Nothing to be frightened of.
******
Alberta 10:43am – A. Because the 324 includes the balanced return of LW 24 thermals + 78 Evap.Transp & 67 absorbed. Nothing to be frightened of.

AlecM
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 2:05 pm

@Trick: Emittance is a Potential energy flux, not a real flux. The mistake in the reference I gave is not to make that distinction. Agreed; Emittance is the Emissivity as a function of wavelength x the Planck Irradiance Function.
I prove this from wave optics. Poynting Vectors exist for every wavelet. They add as vectors. The Irradiance (for a collimated beam = Emittance) is the sum of all the Poynting Vectors from a single source.To get the net flux, you integrate all those vector sums over all wavelengths.
The radiation field from a single source only existed once in the Universe, at the instant of the Big Bang. To claim they exist in our present time is ludicrous and any professional has to master this physics.
So0, the only real net IR flux from surface to atmosphere = 63 W/m^2, and most goes to Space. Incidentally no GHG-absorbed IR energy can thermalise in the gas phase; it scatters to condensed matter – aerosols.

PMHinSC
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 2:45 pm

Curious whether anyone has put error bands around the numbers in this diagram to see what the boundaries are? It should give us the best and worst case.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 5:37 pm

Alberta Slim

How can back radiation [324] exceed that from that absorbed by the earth[168]???

Radiation fluxes are a function of temperature. Note that the 324 W/m^2 downwelling IR is offset by 390 W/m^2 upwelling IR from the surface. Plugging those values into T = (F/σ)^0.25, where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant 5.67E-08 we get these effective temperatures:
274.9 K = 2.8 °C atmosphere
288.0 K = 15.8 °C surface
As expected, on balance the surface is warmer than the atmosphere.

Trick
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 8:47 pm

AlecM 2:05pm: “Emittance is a Potential energy flux, not a real flux.”
You make this mistake often. Planck function being always nonzero tells us the emittance (emissivity * Planck function) from any real body is always nonzero and real as all mass radiates, the potential is the net. You get closer to the correct physics when you correctly write “the only real net IR flux from surface to atmosphere = 63 W/m^2.” This (66 actually above) is the real emissivity * Planck function from surface = 390 net of the real emissivity * Planck function from atm. = 324.
In other words, the real emittance 390 of the surface net of the real emittance 324 of the atm. = 66. Both surface and atm. are real bodies with mass so Planck function shows both radiate i.e. have nonzero emittance at all frequencies and at all temperatures. You are right to question use of emissivity and emittance terms, they are sometimes misused as are radiance and irradiance. The MIT piece shows no mistake or misuse.
******
PMHinSC: There are error bands shown in the later energy balance work of Stephens et. al. 2012:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n10/pdf/ngeo1580.pdf

Michael 2
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 7:43 am

Disputes over this chart seem to be mostly semantic. I accept it more or less at face value since I think I understand what it is trying to say. Most of the dispute seems to exist on the surface radiation value of 390, more particularly the 350 that doesn’t go unchallenged through the atmospheric window (8 to 15 micron wavelength for instance).
The “back radiation” of 324 is poorly characterized in this chart; most of it is immediately captured within a few meters of leaving the Earth surface and is immediately re-radiated back to it.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 9:33 am

This cartoon radiation budget is missing something (big). The ‘back radiation’ on the right should have a ‘forward radiation’ element as well. CO2 and other GHGs like water vapour emit in all directions. Increasing the concentration increases the ability of the atmosphere to emit outwards as well as inwards.
The net effect of a change is to alter the vertical height which is the effective radiating surface. That we understand, but the cartoon leaves out the actual energy flow and is thus misleading. It presents GHGs as a mirror instead of a gas.
There are several other aspects which mislead. It needs to be redrawn from scratch.

MikeB
Reply to  johnmarshall
December 2, 2014 11:38 am

Richard Verney
Energy in is Not received in bursts. It is received 24/7. Do you understand that? When it is night, somewhere on the Earth it is day. The energy-in is continuous.
Genghis
The ocean energy cycle, whatever you think that is, has nothing to do with energy-in, energy-out or Earth’s energy budget.
Alberta Slim
Good question. This is one of the basics.
See … http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/17/the-steel-greenhouse/
AlecM,
I know physicists have been wrong for 70 years, now take your medication

Konrad.
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 1:15 pm

MikeB
December 2, 2014 at 11:38 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////
”Richard Verney
Energy in is Not received in bursts. It is received 24/7. Do you understand that? When it is night, somewhere on the Earth it is day. The energy-in is continuous.”

Mike, Richard is right and you are wrong. Energy is received at earth’s surface in an intermittent cycle, and as 71% of the planet’s surface is ocean (an extreme SW selective surface not a “near blackbody”) this cycle of illumination is critical and its effects cannot be modelled wit averages. Here are five simple rules for SW translucent materials that show why –
http://i59.tinypic.com/10pdqur.jpg
– for our deep SW translucent oceans using averages for solar insolation gives the wrong answer. Utterly wrong.
”Genghis
The ocean energy cycle, whatever you think that is, has nothing to do with energy-in, energy-out or Earth’s energy budget.”

Again Genghis is right and you are wrong. See the diagram above. Further to this have another look at Trenberth’s ludicrous energy budget cartoon. It simply shows “surface” absorbing DWLWIR not land and ocean. Empirical experiment clearly shows that incident LWIR has no effect on the cooling rate of water that is free to evaporatively cool. That would mean that diagram is wrong for 71% of our planet’s surface.
”Alberta Slim
Good question. This is one of the basics.
See … http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/17/the-steel-greenhouse/”

Steel green house works –
http://i43.tinypic.com/2wrlris.jpg
– but only when you separate the surfaces with vacuum. The basic maxwellian physics of this simple experiment cannot be applied to a moving gas atmosphere.
”AlecM,
I know physicists have been wrong for 70 years, now take your medication”

Physicists haven’t been wrong for 70 years, the two stream approximation works well for objects that are not conductively coupled and don’t cool by evaporation. It is climastrologists who tried to use this type of radiative physics within the moving gas Hohlrumn of the atmosphere that need the medication.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 10:31 am

Konrad,
Thanks for that excellent graphic. The fundamental reason the calculation is in error is that the averaging of averages is not mathematically permitted. In some cases averaging of fractions can be done using a harmonic mean but in general, not allowed. The average of efficiencies A/B and C/D is not
((A/B)+(C/D))/2
It is (A+C)/(B+D)
The issue is discussed in an obscure paper by Alexander Bastsulin at
http://kirpichiki.pro/download.html?id=35
which is about calculating the heating efficiency of large, fixed wood stoves. It boils down to the same thing – the average of a number of efficiency calculations is not the ‘average efficiency’.
The GACC makes the same mistake in their heat transfer efficiency calculations in spite of being informed about the issue for years.
http://www.aprovecho.org/lab/index.php?option=com_rubberdoc&view=doc&id=230&format=raw
The intermittency issue is effectively the same for both cases – solid / translucent body ‘average’ efficiency comparison is based on a conceptual error which you have demonstrated with the graphic.
It does not have to be ‘intermittent’ in the sense of being cyclical. It could consist of a single long variation from the beginning of an experiment to the end. That has the same effect. Even if the change linear, it gives the wrong answer for radiative calculations.
Intermittency and variation are separate issues and both have to be considered. As the insolation varies during the day, that adds to the complexity. Insulation varies continuously then all but disappears.
It is a solvable problem, but it has not been solved. Not that I have seen. It requires mathematics, not arithmetic. 🙂

Trick
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 1:15 pm

Crispin 10:31am: “…gives the wrong answer for radiative calculations.”
Not for the Trenberth et. al. cartoon MikeB shows at 6:46am, the sun was “on” for the earth continuously over the 4 years of CERES data shown therein, there is no shade in space for earth system. That’s why they call it a solar constant – the sun is a continuous wave. Konrad’s experiments are irrelevant to that cartoon and genre.

MikeB
Reply to  johnmarshall
December 2, 2014 12:06 pm

Richard Verney
Energy in is Not received in bursts. It is received 24/7. Do you understand that? When it is night, somewhere on the Earth it is day. The energy-in is continuous. That’s what the diagram shows.
Genghis, George
The ocean energy cycle, whatever you think that is, has nothing to do with energy-in, energy-out or Earth’s energy budget. This is an energy budget diagram.
Alberta Slim
Good question. This is one of the basics.
See … http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/17/the-steel-greenhouse/
NZ Willy
Entropy is next to the picture of Bambi. Where else would it be in this sort of diagram?
AlecM,
I know all physicists have been wrong for 70 years. The only puzzle is why no one but you ever noticed. Now take your medication

george e. smith
Reply to  MikeB
December 2, 2014 2:44 pm

Nowhere did I EVER suggest that energy input to earth is in bursts. In fact I have been singularly isolated in my insistence that the sun pours in 136X +/- 90 W/m^2 24 / 7 continually; NOT for one quarter of the time at a 342 W/m^2 rate.
And KT’s energy budget, includes bi-direction radiant energy fluxes, as well as at least an upward thermal flux “HEAT” (noun). See that 24 W/m^2 “thermals” and the 78 “Latent heat”
So I believe it would be entirely proper to show the poleward transfers of “Heat” via convection (ocean currents).

Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 7:07 am

@MikeB
cc: Richard Verney.
Thanks, MikeB, for reminding us of the power of basic physical laws. Richard Verney’s lengthy post is interesting, but does nothing to change the energy budget, nor the Law of conservation of energy. Some points the energy budget and your commentary reinforces:
1) Energy into the Earth’s system (suns rays) must equal energy out (IR leaving Earth’s system for space).
2) The intricate explanations in Richard Verney’s post as to how the oceans absorb this or that potion of the sun’s radiation is interesting, but has to do with the portion of the sun’s rays absorbed by the ocean vs the portion absorbed by the atmosphere, and thus with weather, not with long term climate trends.
3) None of Verney’s lengthy post is necessary to understand , or disproves in any way, conservation of energy, or the energy budget you show.
4) Energy into Earth’s System from the Sun, is, well thermal radiation from the sun, ONLY. Energy out from Earth’s system is thermal radiation as well, ONLY. Neither of the other two mechanisms of heat transfer– conduction or convection– can transfer heat either into the Earths system, or out from the Earth’s system, to space, since the Earth is surrounded by a vacuum, and the only means of transferring heat in or out is Thermal radiation.
5) As the Greenhouse Effect absorbs IR leaving the Earths surface and lower troposphere,and reradiates 360 degrees, a portion of the iR is returned to the lower troposphere –warming it and the Earth’s surface, So the Earth must radiate enough IR to maintain the total energy balance of in vs out. And to do so, the Earth’s temperature must by calculation using the T^4 relationship, , and by measurement, average about 60F vs the Zero F equilibrium temperature of the Earth if it had no atmosphere and no greenhouse effect.
6) The ongoing increase in CO2, and thus in the Greenhouse Effect, reducing outgoing IR, requires Earth’s system to warm enough to increase outgoing IR thermal radiation to maintain energy out = energy in (Sun’s rays). All the internal exchanges of heat among different parts of the Earth’s system — oceans vs troposphere, rivers vs surface, etc, are irrelevant to the net energy balance of the total Earth system and thus irrelevant to long term climate trends.
I recommend the document link in MikeB’s post — explaining the calculation of heat flowing into Earths system, and flowing out (equal of course), All the stuff about bursts, etc, is a distraction from the importance of the energy budget to understanding Earths Climate trends.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  MikeB
December 3, 2014 11:38 am

warrenlb
“4) Energy into Earth’s System from the Sun, is, well thermal radiation from the sun, ONLY. Energy out from Earth’s system is thermal radiation as well, ONLY. ”
Well, not really. Some of the energy from the sun leaves as reflected electromagnetic radiation (light) that is not in the IR band.
Some parts of your comment which follow are also not correct in that energy can leave the system by any frequency of radiation available. Sunlight is reflected off clouds and this is correctly indicated in the cartoon.
Sunlight is also reflected off the surface – also correctly noted in the cartoon. That is not IR yet it leaves the system.
The IR radiation is what leaves after absorbed incident sunlight is absorbed, not all incoming energy.
Of course this correction dramatically affects the calculated IR radiation requirement and also the effective radiating height (if the conceptual error was carried that far).

David A
December 2, 2014 4:13 am

About seven years ago Kevin Trenberth made the following admissions…
◾…none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.
◾In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models.
◾Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors.
◾… if the current state is one of drought then it is unlikely to get drier, but unrealistic model states and model biases can easily violate such constraints and project drier conditions.
◾However, the science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate.
◾So the science is just beginning.
◾We will adapt to climate change. The question is whether it will be planned or not?
================================================================
Admitting the above, there is no rational way anybody could justify taking the model mean of so many poor over warm projections, and guide global policy based on wrong models. BTW, the models are no better seven years later. In fact they continue to depart further from the observations.
Links to the above here at Bob T’s site… https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/category/climate-model-failings/
See the top post linked.

Robert of Ottawa
Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 6:54 am

The question is whether it will be planned or not? … revealing the essential political nature of this debate.

David A
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
December 2, 2014 8:48 am

Yes, that is the excuse. The truth is every state and municipality had planned for storms, earthquakes droughts etc. (some poorly, some wisely) To plan based on very wrong climate models, and even more wrong projections as to what those simulated conditions will be like regarding SL rise, droughts etc, is simply wrong and foolish.

Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 2:01 pm

Neither Trenberth nor Tisdale said Trenberth had to retire to speak openly about the Science.

Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 4:48 pm

The models do indeed have an error range, which is fully detailed in the IPCC 4th Assessment; the projections from these models are assigned a risk level based on the error estimates, and those risk levels are also defined. Do you not think that in in order for you to claim the models are over predicting the impacts, you have to demonstrate that predictions made by the models are in error more than the claims of the modelers?
Have you done so, or do you have a scientific source or reference that has done so?

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  warrenlb
December 2, 2014 6:15 pm

warrenlb
The models do indeed have an error range, which is fully detailed in the IPCC 4th Assessment; the projections from these models are assigned a risk level based on the error estimates, and those risk levels are also defined.

So you claim.
But prove it: Tell me the probability, and the worldwide ecomic impact on lives, health and jobs that :
1. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have cooled, or remained steady.
2. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have warmed by 1 deg C.
3. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have warmed by 2 deg C.
4. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have warmed by 3 deg C.
5. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have warmed by 4 deg C.
6. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have warmed by more than 4 deg C.
You see, there is NO harm for a warming of less than 4 deg C. NONE. Only benefits from higher energy use and more CO2 in the atmosphere. Show me those words. Show me the 5% possibility that more 4 deg warming will occur, and show me WHY they claim there will be harm by a 4 degree warming. Show me the probability of a 2 deg and a 3 deg warming by 2100.
It is not there. Only the assumption (“high probability”) of some unspecified amount of temperature warming that will cause the economic harm their prejudged team claim to unknown peoples.
At the absolute guaranteed loss of life, health, and well-being of billions over an 85 year span, we are given the possibility that some harm might be avoided to some people..
1. By year 2100, 85 years from now, the global average satellite temperature will have cooled, or remained steady.

RH
Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 5:49 pm

Global warming is simply the device they’re using to justify policies they want to impose anyway. The facts won’t get in the way of their agenda.

Doug S
December 2, 2014 4:30 am

Yes, thanks Dr. Trenberth for beginning the long walk back to fundamental science. I suspect you have been troubled by the people you work with and the way they have politicised the field of climate science. The one clear indication that climate science was hijacked by charlatans is their insistence that “the science is settled” and the “debate is over”. It’s not necessary to debate any details on the subject. Those two statements are all that is needed to identify a group of people dedicated to a cause that is not science. It is politics.

dearieme
December 2, 2014 4:41 am

If a globalwarmmonger starts showing decent manners, is this evidence that he is in retreat? Quick: write a mathematical model to give us an answer to this question.

James Strom
December 2, 2014 4:59 am

Speaking of retreat, over Thanksgiving I encountered a Canadian who complained that his government was awarding grant money to skeptics. He also made a related complaint about funding in the US, but I believe he was a bit less well informed on that topic.

Mike
Reply to  James Strom
December 2, 2014 7:12 am

Jim Carrey (I can’t remember if he is the “Dumb” or “Dumber” one)?

Chris D.
December 2, 2014 5:00 am

Reading this header reminded me of the anti smoking signs that cropped up years ago in establishments where smoking was prohibited: “Thank you for not smoking”.
The thing is, scientists are supposed to be open minded. It’s a sad commentary on the field of climatology when open mindedness is extraordinary to the point of leading one to feel grateful whenever it is encountered.

latecommer2014
Reply to  Chris D.
December 2, 2014 8:32 am

I remember best the sign that said” thank you for pot smoking”. Must have been a misprint.

Jim Francisco
Reply to  Chris D.
December 2, 2014 10:52 am

Good one Chris. I propose a get out of jail free card to all the scientist who admit they were wrong and were just afraid to admit it. I will be void if not used in the next three months.
Jim

Stephen Richards
December 2, 2014 5:10 am

I agree Bob, When he retires the retoric will be interesting.

hunter
December 2, 2014 5:15 am

Each step towards reason and rational discussion by members of the consensus is a good thing.
It sounds like this is a small but significant step.

Reply to  hunter
December 2, 2014 6:51 am

its a trap, remember what ball said they are all in on the big Lie

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 9:02 am

Steven M, you are somewhat prejudice. See the post here…http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/02/many-thanks-to-kevin-trenberth-for-being-open-minded/#comment-1803724
To know this about the climate models, and then to demand radical public policy based on those wrong climate models, is to be either unfathomably stupid, or to be using them as an excuse for your real motive, which is likely motivated by either extremely Malthusian fears and goals which the public would reject, so they are hidden, desire for power and or money, a classic case repeated to often in history to be considered surprising, yet still fitting the label of “conspiracy” because folk like Al Gore do not come out and describe their motive to be monetary and ego driven power based.
(The use of the word YOUR I do not mean you personally, but the leaders of the CAGW movement who know the models suck, and the disasters predicted are failing to manifest)
Also when you refuse to capitalize a man’s name it only demeans you, and in this case I mean you.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 6:07 pm

Also when you refuse to capitalize a man’s name it only demeans you, and in this case I mean you.

David A, you have to understand that Mosher is an English major. Therefore his English and grammar suck. He likes to blame it on his smart phone, but I haven’t seen one in recent years that has such bad grammar.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 7:42 pm

If you cannot trust Muller why on earth would you trust someone like Trenberth?

David Ball
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 3, 2014 6:36 pm

Bob Tisdale says “I didn’t want to get involved”.
Sorry Bob, but you are “involved”.

December 2, 2014 5:19 am

On the other side of the globe November CET daily max temperatures are back to the 20 year average, while daily min is about 1 degree C above the 20 year average.

Bruce Cobb
December 2, 2014 5:26 am

It’s still a shame that he has committed his life’s work to pseudoscience. He does seem to wrestle a bit more with it than most of his compadres, especially Mann and his ilk. One might even say it’s a travesty.

climatologist
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 2, 2014 11:13 am

What nonsense, Trenberth has always been an honest scientist and has written numerous papers not dealing with global warming. Excelllent papers too.

December 2, 2014 5:35 am

Congratulations, Bob. But don’t get too close, it might be contagious. 😉

David Chappell
December 2, 2014 5:57 am

I’d have more respect for Trenberth if he stopped claiming to be a Nobel Laureate:
“Nobel Laureate (shared) for Nobel Peace Prize 2007 (as part of IPCC)” – extract from his cv at http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/cv.html

Paul Courtney
Reply to  David Chappell
December 2, 2014 7:54 am

Yeah, that’s really awful. Worse if he claimed it in Court pleadings, right? Then he’d be humiliated into withdrawing such a deceitful claim, why he’d be the laughing stock of scientists like…you? Who’s laughing now?

Framptal Tromwibbler
Reply to  David Chappell
December 2, 2014 10:50 am

That’s nothing. I was the winner (shared) of Time Magazine’s prestigious Person of the Year award for 2006. Look it up!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

December 2, 2014 6:27 am

As I have said many times for many years AGW theory will be proven to be wrong before this decade ends.

Reply to  Salvatore Del Prete
December 2, 2014 6:43 am

Has it ever been proven to be correct?

Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 7:51 am

Has it ever been falsifiable in the first place?

Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 8:56 am

Russ yes.
in 1896 a prediction was made. If c02 increases the planet will warm.
it increased. we got warmer.
in the 1930s this prediction was refined by Callendar.
Again, he predicted that more c02 would lead to warming.
Again, he was right.
A theory only needs to be falsifiable in PRINCIPLE. that is it needs to entail observables.
in practice scientists can always CHOOSE to avoid falsifying a theory by adding
auxiliary hypotheses.

David A
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 9:25 am

Mosher the theory presented to the world is CAGW. Catastrophic warming is what was predicted…
Moscow-Pullman Daily News – 5 July 1989
“governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.”
[Noel Brown – New York office of the United Nations Environment Program]
=======================
The Vancouver Sun – May 11, 1982
Lack of such action would bring “by the turn of the century, an envi-ronmental catastrophe which will witness devast-tation as complete, as ir-reversible as any nu-clear holocaust.”
[MostafaTolba – Executive director of the United Nations Environment Program]
=======================
New York Times – November 18, 2007
…..The IPCC chairman, RajendraPachauri, an engineer and economist from India, acknowledged the new trajectory. “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late,”Pachauri said. “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”…..
=======================
Guardian – 1 August 2008
Andrew Simms
The final countdown
We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now – and where to begin
…Because in just 100 months’ time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change….
=======================
Independent – 20 October 2009
[SPEECH]
Gordon Brown: We have fewer than fifty days to save our planet from catastrophe
……..Copenhagen must be such a time.
There are now fewer than 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years and more. So, as we convene here, we carry great responsibilities, and the world is watching. If we do not reach a deal at this time, let us be in no doubt: once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement, in some future period, can undo that choice. By then it will be irretrievably too late….
=======================
Guardian – 12 March 2009
……The current financial slump would be “nothing” compared to the “full effects which global warming will have on the world economy,” he said.
“We have less than 100 months to alter our behaviour before we risk catastrophic climate change,” Prince Charles added…..
=======================
National Post – 2009?
… In the summer, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon insisted “we have four months to save the planet.”…
=======================
Guardian – 3 November 2009
We only have months, not years, to save civilisation from climate change
…….Lester R Brown is president of Earth Policy Institute and author of Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization.
=======================
Guardian – 8 July 2008
100 months to save the Earth
There isn’t much time to turn things around. And today’s G8 announcements on climate change set the bar too low
……The world’s climate experts say that that the world’s CO2 output must peak within the next decade and then drop, very fast, if we are to reach this sort of long term reduction. In short, we have about 100 months to turn the global energy system around. The action taken must be immediate and far reaching……
[John Sauven – Greenpeace]
=======================
WWF – 7 December 2009
12 days to save the planet!
…“The world has given a green light for a climate deal. But the commitments made so far won’t keep the world under 2° of warming, This has to change over the next 12 days. …
[WWF-UK’s head of climate change, Keith Allott]
=======================
Guardian – 18 January 2009
‘We have only four years left to act on climate change – America has to lead’
Jim Hansen is the ‘grandfather of climate change’ and one of the world’s leading climatologists…..
“We cannot now afford to put off change any longer. We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead.”
=======================
The Star – Mar 24 2009
‘We have hours’ to prevent climate disaster
…Recently, Prince Charles has said we have only an estimated 100 months. Unless the world comes together and negotiates a meaningful agreement to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions nine months from now – at the Copenhagen meeting of the United Nations climate conference in December – another 90 months won’t help. We have hours to act to avert a slow-motion tsunami that could destroy civilization as we know it.
Earth has a long time. Humanity does not. We need to act urgently. We no longer have decades; we have hours. We mark that in Earth Hour on Saturday….
[Elizabeth May of Canadian Green Party]
=======================
Address at New York University Law School – September 18, 2006
Al Gore
Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several “tipping points” that could — within as little as 10 years — make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage to the planet’s habitability for human civilization.
=======================
Scientific American – Mar 18, 2014
By Michael E. Mann
Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036
If the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming will rise 2 degrees Celsius by 2036, crossing a threshold that many scientists think will hurt all aspects of human civilization: food, water, health, energy, economy and national security. …
=======================
Irish Times – 14 April 2014
Former president Mary Robinson said this morning global leaders have “at most two decades to save the world”.
=======================
“Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of eco-refugees, threatening political chaos.” -Noel Brown, ex UNEP Director, 1989
“[Inaction will cause]… by the turn of the century [2000], an ecological catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” -Mustafa Tolba, 1982, former Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program
“Five years is all we have left if we are going to preserve any kind of quality in the world.” -Paul Ehrlich, Stanford Biologist, Earth Day 1970</b
So yes Steven M, the theory is falsified because what we got was fewer hurricanes, no increase in droughts, a bit more snow and precipitation, reduced tornadoes, and ever LARGER crop yields. Yet you defend the models regularly, and have, as far as I know, never publically spoken out against these disaster claims.
So answer us all openly, do you agree with the following statement made by one of the leaders of the
U.N….
“To achieve world government, it is necessary to remove from the minds of men their individualism, loyalty to family, tradition, national patriotism and religious dogmas.
“The re-interpretation and eventually eradication of the concept of right and wrong which has been the basis of child training, the substitution of intelligent and rational thinking for faith in the certainties of old people, these are the belated objectives of practically all effective psychotherapy”. (Brock Chisholm, first Director General of the World Health Organization)
Perhaps you do not go that far. Are you politically "progressive", and do you support B. Obama's climate policy and the EPA. (It is a fair question.)

D.J. Hawkins
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 9:37 am

@Steven Mosher
Isn’t this essentially what’s been going on with the Heinz 57 Varieties explanation for the halt/slowdown/pause in global temperature rise? A desperate search for auxiliary hypotheses to avoid a reckoning on the theory?

William R.
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 10:37 am

“in 1896 a prediction was made. If c02 increases the planet will warm.
it increased. we got warmer.”
I sacrificed a goat to the gods, and then the sun rose in the morning. My theory that sacrificing goats to the gods causes the sun to rise has thus been proven. Hide your goats.

Scarface
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 12:45 pm

Steven Mosher,
If the planet warms, CO2 will increase, because oceans can hold less of it.
You got it all backwards. That’s what’s wrong with your AGW

milodonharlani
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 12:58 pm

Steven,
You commit the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc.
There is no reason to imagine that the world warmed mainly, partly or at all because of higher CO2. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected based upon available evidence.
Both the men you cite thought higher CO2 a boon, & Callendar considered his hypothesis falsified by the brutal cold of the 1960s, which indeed it was. For the first three decades after WWII, CO2 rose monotomously while global T, in so far as it can be measured, fell. Thus was CACA born falsified.
Rising CO2 during the next two decades happened accidentally to coincide with rising T, again as measured by governments & schools with a vested interest in higher “readings”. Now for going on another two decades, while CO2 has continued its postwar climb, T has again fallen or stayed flat, depending upon which “data set” you chose.

hunter
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 3:12 pm

Steven,
Please do not be a sophist on this.
Mere warming is not the problem Dangerous climate change/warming is the alleged problem.
We do not spend trillions and reshape society based on a non-crisis, if we are at all rational.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 8:02 pm

milodonharlani,

There is no reason to imagine that the world warmed mainly, partly or at all because of higher CO2.

Ok, why did it warm then?

Both the men you cite thought higher CO2 a boon …

That there would be a red herring. Whatever else they thought has no bearing on their correct prediction of the direction of temperature change in relation to the increased concentration of CO2. 1st principles of physics correctly applied trumps rhetoric every time. The planet does not care about your opinion of it, nor anyone else’s, right or wrong.

milodonharlani
Reply to  JohnWho
December 2, 2014 8:10 pm

Brandon Gates
December 2, 2014 at 8:02 pm
You ask why it warmed then. Well, it didn’t, then it did, then it didn’t, then it did & now it’s flat or not. All the while CO2 rose, so their hypotheses have been thoroughly & repeatedly shown false.
Both men did not predict the correct direction, even though they both had a 50% chance of being right.
C wrote at the tail end of the early 20th century warming, so he was almost immediately shown wrong, although it took the brutal winters of the ’60s finally to convince him (to his credit). Temperatures started to fall despite rising CO2 promptly after his prediction.
A wrote during a natural, cyclic downturn in global T, so his hypothesis was falsified the other way around.

Reply to  JohnWho
December 3, 2014 2:24 am

Mosher writes “Again, he predicted that more c02 would lead to warming. Again, he was right.”
As others have mentioned Increased CO2 could mean Warming and Warming could result in increased CO2, It can go both ways. The fact we’re also putting it out there may not be the primary driving factor.
The part of the AGW theory that is in doubt is the “control knob” part.

Reply to  Salvatore Del Prete
December 2, 2014 10:36 am

Mosher:
“…in practice scientists can always CHOOSE to avoid falsifying a theory by adding
auxiliary hypotheses.”
A theory which has been contradicted by proper and valid observations/experiments is considered falsified. Period.
Of course, researchers are free to construct a new theory, from scratch, or by refining the old theory. But the original theory, as stated, remains falsified.
What you’re describing is called “moving the goal posts”. The IPCC does it all the time: global warming climate-change

TYoke
Reply to  Johanus
December 2, 2014 4:53 pm

Yours is the best in a group of good responses to Mosher.
The “settled science” global temperature projections of the 2007 IPCC 3rd report have by now diverged so far from the observed record, that the projections are falsified at a 98% confidence level.
Subsequently there have been any number of explanations for why AGW apologists should not be held to that “settled science” prediction. All of that long list of excuses amount some modification of one sort or another to the “settled science” model. Fair enough, but it remains true that the principal 2007 “settled science” prediction has been falsified.

Kermit
December 2, 2014 6:48 am

It was interesting to me that Trenberth was a doctoral student under Edward Lorenz at MIT. There would seem to be no possible way that he would not be aware of the uncertainties of climate modeling.

Admin
Reply to  Kermit
December 2, 2014 7:10 am

Kevin knew about the problems with the models, but he mostly talked about it to his colleagues. Trenberth is one of the interesting members of the Climategate cast, a bit like Keith Briffa – one of the few people who expressed serious concerns about the quality of the scientific “certainty”.
Hi Tom
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where
energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not
close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is
happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as
we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin

http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1255530325.txt

Kermit
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 10:55 am

My modeling experience (two decades now) has been using mostly fundamental data to predict selected commodity markets. It is painfully obvious when my models have been wrong, as I lose money. The lack of feedback like this is what is wrong with climate modeling. When I read James Gleick’s book CHAOS, I finally understood why what I was doing would be so frustrating.
What is missing in most every discussion, IMHO, is shown by a very simple question. If the person being asked is certain that man made CO2 is a significant cause of any current warming, the obvious question is – why? What does the science actually consist of that shows man made CO2 to be a significant cause of any current warming? Nothing technical needed – just a simple general explanation. There seem to be extremely few people that can answer this question, as their beliefs seem to be religious type beliefs that requires faith rather than understanding. They cannot even find an answer using Google, and they get extremely irritated when you point out that you can get an answer to almost anything using Google!
Now, the answer, of course, is that the known greenhouse effect of CO2 is well known. The problem seems to be that it only accounts for a small amount of the measured current warming. So, a “fudge factor” is introduced into the climate models (sensitivity), and the assumption is made that somehow the man made CO2 is causing water vapor to have the effect. And, so, what we have is a few people sitting in front of computers playing SimEarth. They are curve fitting computer models to the (poor quality) historical data. Many of us know, as I’m sure Trenberth knows, that this technique of modeling a “coupled, non-linear chaotic system” (IPCC definition) by curve fitting a model to the data, cannot result in anything that can be trusted to project forward.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Kermit
December 2, 2014 7:56 pm

I would like to see a plot of the prophets-of-climatology’s amount-of-time-to-tipping-points versus the dates the prophecies were made. What is a linear fit to that graph? Positive slope? = They’re pushing their predictions of catastrophe further and further into the future so they won’t be around to be scorned when their prophecy fails. Negative slope? = They’re moving the goal posts closer and closer to the present to scare sheeple into coughing up more useless taxes. Horizontal and all over the place? = They don’t know what they’re talking about. Yeah, I think that is the more likely case.

Reply to  noaaprogrammer
December 2, 2014 8:01 pm

LOL!
Tipping points are us!
With goal posts fading into infinity. The vanishing point will be reached when the last Team activist reaches retirement age.

December 2, 2014 6:57 am

You are assuming that Trenberth actually made and or endorses the page. I could well be that some flunky is assigned the job of listing every pubication that Trenberth’s name was associated with.
and yes linking is not endorsing as everyone here knows.
I would ask Dr. Ball to interpret Trenberth’s actions.. he has a crystal ball when it comes to divining people’s motives.. or rather how can Trenberth be open minded AND a part of the “big lie”

more soylent green!
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 9:04 am

You don’t have a very good understanding of people if you don’t know they can and do easily believe multiple, mutually exclusive ideas at the same time.

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 9:09 am

Mr Mosher one-track, who is assuming what?
Why are you trying to redirect this post? It is somewhat troll like. My post here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/02/many-thanks-to-kevin-trenberth-for-being-open-minded/#comment-1803921 responds to your other one track Dr Ball comment.

Sun Spot
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 10:04 am

Mosher grow up, when you stop acting like a petulant spoiled child some may actually show you some respect.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 10:09 am

I have always admired Steven Mosher, especially since he guessed correctly when he fingered Peter Gleick for defrauding Heartland out of their internal documents. But something must have happened since then, because Steven seems to have gotten very bitter lately. I hope it’s nothing serious.

garymount
Reply to  dbstealey
December 2, 2014 4:40 pm

I hope it’s nothing serious.

It’s the failure of the planet to warm. 🙂

James McCown
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 11:21 am

Perhaps Kevin is an open-minded liar? LOL.

markx
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 3:17 pm

Ha!
Mosh… floundering…

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 7:15 pm

Bob, repeated accusations that Mosher is a “troll” do nothing but damage your own reputation. You have a good reputation due to your most interesting posts … but getting into playground level name calling only hurts it.
Disagree with what Mosh says? Sure. Think he’s wrong? Hey, I think Mosh is wrong a whole lot … but that doesn’t mean he’s a troll. As they say, all of this is a subject upon which gentlemen may disagree.
So please, my friend, take the high road … argue the science and not the man.
With best wishes,
w.

milodonharlani
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 7:25 pm

Steve’s drive by postings are the very model (so to speak) of a modern major troll.
He’s also the model of a humanities major hitching a ride on the CACA gravy train.
But then, as a psych major, no surprise that you find his drivel “scientific”.

Catherine Ronconi
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 7:35 pm

Birds of an unscientific feather flocking together.
Neither has any scientific education, yet has tried to stroke his ego mixing in a sciencey milieu, so naturally they gravitate towards each other in mutual support.
Both may suffer from the type of obsessive-compulsive disorder that manifests itself in arithmetic calculations, especially among people without any higher mathematical ability. That’s a bond.

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 7:43 pm

IMO Willis’ analysis of buoy data was important, regardless of anyone’s opinion of his scientific or mathematical background credentials or lack thereof. The proof is in the pudding for citizen scientists, as it should be for professionals.
You’re a scientist, IMO, if you use the scientific method to test hypothesis about how the world works. PhDs are academic union cards & even the presumed requisite courses in basic science don’t count if you have the facts & argument on your side.
I’d like to see more of the same.

Konrad.
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 11:08 pm

sturgishooper
December 2, 2014 at 7:43 pm
//////////////////////////////////////////////
”IMO Willis’ analysis of buoy data was important, regardless of anyone’s opinion”
I would agree, he showed the cloud thermostat clearly in the buoy analysis.
Further, I would call it wrong to call Steve Mosher a troll, even though some of the “drive by” behaviour resembles this. He was just the first WUWT “sleeper” to snap under the pressure…
Still waiting for DMH to snap, but it’s only a matter of time 😉

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 3, 2014 12:55 am

Mosh is merely a seagull, Mr Tisdale.

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 4, 2014 9:07 am

Bob Tisdale on December 2, 2014 at 6:22 pm says,
“The troll Steven Mosher says:” [3 times]

Bob Tisdale,
Steven Mosher makes me often think through stuff that goes against the main intellectual current in threads here at WUWT. Even when I disagree fairly often with Mosher, he has a way of getting to some root point or fundamental focus. He stimulates discussion. I love it when Mosher does that. {Thanks Mosher}
I suggest it was unwise to do your ‘troll’ namecalling as it was unwise to do your undercover activities at HotWhopper blog when you posted comments there without using your real name. As to the troll labeling thing in this thread by you, be careful Bob; serial troll namecallers / labelers are sometimes known as ‘trollopers’.
Parting thought – Bob, I love your many past posts on interpreting various EAS** patterns and data.
**Earth Atmosphere System
John

lee
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 8:08 pm

Steven, I have never seen on his media page a link to SKS – one would assume a natural choice, for a warmist. Why is that, do you think? It is not skeptical enough? Too ridiculous for words?

mpainter
December 2, 2014 7:42 am

A scientist is owed thanks for being open minded?
Come, come. This is the fellow who is tucking heat under the oceans because he cannot accept the temperature record of the past two decades. Is this what you call “open-minded?”

G. Karst
Reply to  mpainter
December 2, 2014 8:16 am

I agree. He has a lot of broken fences to mend. GK

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  mpainter
December 3, 2014 11:53 am

“Tucking heat under the ocean” is a brilliant turn of phrase. Thanks!

Dave in Canmore
December 2, 2014 7:57 am

Privately he explains the models have no predictive skill but meanwhile, the reports he authors are screaming certain disaster? These same reports are being used by government to take billions of dollars from taxpayers?
Mr. Trenberth represents a pretty narrow definition of openess in my opinion.

David A
Reply to  Dave in Canmore
December 2, 2014 9:12 am

if true, then he either believes they are good for the world (Malthusian) or he simply wants to keep his paycheck, or he would lose all his friends if he made his strong doubts public, or a confirmation bias influenced by all of the above.

Tom J
December 2, 2014 8:01 am

Let’s not forget the resignation from the UN IPCC by Dr. Christopher Landsea. It was in response to public comments Trenberth made over AGW increasing the severity and frequency of hurricanes. That was at the time Katrina hit. How many years ago was that? There’s been no landfall hurricanes to hit the U.S. since then. Landsea was right.
Courtesy and graciousness are the hallmarks of a gentleman and should be reciprocated. But I’d keep my eyes open.

milodonharlani
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 8:55 am

Wilma formed in October 2005, Rita in September & Katrina in August. All hit the U.S.

Mike from the cold side of the Sierra
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 10:07 am

Ike, Texas and other Gulf states, 2008 a major. My boat was hit by both Katrina and Wilma, Dinner Key, Fl

Bob Kutz
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 11:37 am

Re; Mike from the cold side of the Sierra,
Ike was a Category 2 when it made landfall in Galveston although it hit Cuba and Haiti as a 3 or 4.

Tom J
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 3:28 pm

I was in New Orleans on vacation before Katrina hit. That night on Bourbon Street destroyed my memory. Actually, age has destroyed my memory but I like to think it was Bourbon Street.
I enjoy your thoroughness.
Best wishes.

Editor
Reply to  Tom J
December 2, 2014 7:04 pm
SkepticGoneWild
Reply to  Ric Werme
December 3, 2014 4:40 am

The Climategate emails regarding Landsea and Trenberth are an interesting and important read. They are too long to post, but can easily be read by using the following Climategate FOIA grepper:
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?search=landsea
Click on the “0890.txt”. This file has two email from Landsea.
The first one is on October 21, 2004. Landsea (hurricane expert at NOAA) questions Trenberth on a news conference he [Trenberth] will be participating in entitled “Experts to Warn Global Warming Likely to Continue Spurring More Outbreaks of Hurricane Activity”. He warns Trenberth that there are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and intensity.
The second email is to Pachauri and various IPCC colleagues, with a cc to Trenberth, and dated November 5, 2004. Landsea’s concluding remarks are blunt:
“I did try to caution both Dr. Trenberth and Dr. Linda Mearns before the media event (email included below) and provided a summary of the consensus within the hurricane research community. Dr. Mearns decided not to participate in the panel perhaps as a result of my email correspondence. I sincerely wish Dr. Trenberth had made the same decision. Dr. Trenberth wrote back to me that he hoped that this press conference would not “go out of control”. I would suggest that it was out of control the minute that he and his fellow panel members decided to forego the peer review scientific process and abuse science in pursuit of a political agenda.
Go back to the first link above and then click on “1150.txt”. This email from Landsea is dated December 8,2004 and was sent to Pachauri, and IPCC/NOAA colleagues. This is his resignation email. He concludes with the statement:
“the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, objective point of view. To this, he has failed. I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as not being scientifically sound. As long as this structure remains, I will no longer participate in the IPCC FAR.”
On October 28, 2004, a week after the press conference, Trenberth realizes that Landsea will not be providing the Tropical Cyclone/Global Warming link he wants. Once again go back to the first link above and click on “1219.txt” Trenberth writes to Phil Jones:
“I have been embroiled in a press conference media event on hurricanes and global warming: opposing some things said by people like Chris Landsea who has said all the stuff going on is natural variability. In addition to the 4 hurricanes hitting Florida, there has been a record number hit Japan 10?? and I saw a report saying Japanese scientists had linked this to global warming. There was also the unique event in March 2004 with the hurricane in the South Atlantic off Brazil. I am leaning toward the idea of getting a box on changes in hurricanes, perhaps written by a Japanese. What do you think? Do you know who could do that?”
Trenberth decides to “shop around” for some obscure Japanese scientist to support his hurricane “agenda”.
What is truly disturbing is one of Trenberth’s statements at the October 21, 2004 press conference. Here is a verbatim transcript:
______________________________________
Abhi Raghunathan, Naples Daily News: Hi, this is Abhi Raghunathan at the Naples Daily News in Florida. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has publicly stated that global warming and climate change have had insignificant to no impact on this year’s hurricane season. Were they one of the groups you were referring to earlier when you said that some of the quotes you read in papers came from those with limited perspective?
McCarthy: This is Jim McCarthy. I presume you’re directing that to me. No, I’m not aware of the NOAA statement. Kevin referred earlier to a publication that has been influential in the kind of discussion we’re having right now which came from NOAA scientists, but I was referring to pieces that had come my way, largely op-ed pieces in newspapers throughout the East Coast, where either from the direct effect or the aftermath of these recent storms these opinions have been voiced. Kevin, you might want to comment on the NOAA piece if you’re familiar with it. I’m not.
Trenberth: I have not been aware of any official NOAA statement on this position one way or another.
_______________________________________
The Naples Daily News reporter was well aware of NOAA’s position of “insignificant to no impact” regarding the global warming/hurricane link. Yet Trenberth blatantly states he was not aware of this! He was warned by Landsea prior to the event.
Trenberth never admitting any wrongdoing in this matter, He has some lame response to the Landsea matter on the UCAR/NCAR website.

Joseph Bastardi
December 2, 2014 8:08 am

The PDO did switch phases as it often does in bounceback MEI winters. You can look at the 57-58 enso event and see a flip almost identical to what you see now. Within 2 years its back to the cold PDO. In the decadol events, there are years when it will turn warm. There is nothing new in what we are seeing now relative to what has happened before. It seems like there are alot of research scientists “discovering” what analog based mets have known for years.
Go look at the PDO spike in the 57-59 enso event, which by the way, did not reach super nino criteria anyway, the sign the PDO in the longer term is cold, not warm as we saw in the 80s and into the 90s
It is why I loudly destroyed the wishcasting of the Super Nino, the physical set up was not there. In addition, it is only when surrounded by multi yeared warm MEI and PDO, you see them come. The MEI chart is intuitive, not something that can be seen by only the brightest minds
I am glad he is open minded. Now I wish he would understand that in the field of forecasting, the fact you must fight every day to get an edge which makes you dig into countless past situation with a fine tooth comb,not just a statistical broad brush is what actually makes you “discover” that what you think is new, has happened before. Of course, then what would be the good of funding if you are simply discovering what has always been there, and others unfunded knew about and keep pointing everyone else to it?
If anything, this DIMINISHES what I do, saying anyone can do it, not enhances it and saying only research people need apply when it comes to explaining events, past, present and future. The motives are saying everyone can see it, if they look, not making it some exclusive agenda driven realm

Ed_B
Reply to  Joseph Bastardi
December 2, 2014 8:57 am

Thank you JB for your honesty, integrity and commitment.

David A
Reply to  Joseph Bastardi
December 2, 2014 9:31 am

?It seems like there are alot of research scientists “discovering” what analog based mets have known for years.”
==================================================
plus 10 cogent comment to todays modern world. Yes, it is a bit of a lazy trap to let a computer do all your thinking.

J
Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 9:55 am

I can’t recall who said it, but…
“Be careful of computers, the can make very precise mistakes at a very rapid speed”

george e. smith
Reply to  David A
December 2, 2014 2:28 pm

The sure can !

Reply to  Joseph Bastardi
December 2, 2014 12:00 pm

PDO:
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Note the cold(-PDO) from the mid 1940’s thru the mid 1970’s………with the exception that Joe refers to, which is from 1957-59, when the PDO spiked higher(+PDO). This was in the middle of the -PDO and only lasted briefly as the PDO was back negative for another 15 years after that.
The temporary spike higher to +PDO during 1957-59 was accompanied by a temporary El Nino regime, quite similar to what we are seeing now.:
ENSO(NOI):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
The mid 50’s, had a strong La Nina, close to neutral in the 60’s. more strong La Nina’s in the early/mid 70’s, at the end of the -PDO regime, then the flip to +PDO regime and big El Nino’s in the 1980’s/90’s.

latecommer2014
December 2, 2014 8:37 am

Bob, when can we expect your next ENSO update?

Bruce Cobb
December 2, 2014 8:48 am

I see Mosh is being his usual trollish self.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 2, 2014 9:00 am

really, a couple days after Ball indicts a whole field, after he accuses climate scientists of participating in the “Big lie” we have Bob noting trenberths open mind. Not to mention we have an IPCC that cites
Nic Lewis, Curry, Spenser, Christy, Mcintyre, mcKitrick.
big liars?
Or is the Big lie the lie that Ball told.
Now of course you can say “well Ball didnt mean Curry, Ball didnt mean Nic Lewis” Really?
Gunna use the one true scotsman fallacy?

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 9:33 am

Dr Ball never said that Malthusian one world politics was the motive all of all scientists. I am ever more convinced that you are logically challenged.

Mike from the cold side of the Sierra
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 10:13 am

Sorry you can’t see it, Dr. Ball was right on the money. Well actually you guys are right on the money. He’s just right on the principles and science/politics, time for you to get over it and enjoy the best of your world.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 11:22 am

Steve, Ball’s Big Lie essay was really about the smaller number of ide*logues that sit far above mere largely unsuspecting climate scientists. The undisputed chief new world order campaigner, Maurice Strong, who, though only having a high school education was a charismatic and in many respects a remarkable man. He is the guy who identified the environment as just the tool needed for his grand plans for the planet’s government. It already had international organizations gov and nongov and much headway in selling the issue to the populace. He needed such a motherhood issue to do his stuff. He created the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and he defined the issue that anthropes were the culprits and, probably with some help (Hansen’s stuff?) he saw CO2 as both emitted in fairly large amounts, the control of which would destroy western economies (google is quotes about this).
The IPCC was born from this with a mandate to investigate man’s contribution to Global Warming, not just to investigate global warming from all sources. He knew governments would be on board because of the revenue it would generate and… wait for it… he knew instituting a sizable cashflow to researchers would create the results that he sought. Now Steven, as an honest man, would you not ask the question:
“Shouldn’t we first study the whole problem and see IF human contribution is indeed significant to the issue rather than taking a totalitarian politician’s word for it?”
Perhaps we would have discovered (instead of ignored) what magnitude natural variation, ENSO, etc. etc. was in the mix and not been sideswiped by it with an 18year ‘pause’ that is causing so much angst and even mental health problems. Above scientists are University administrators who probably wouldn’t allow excursions into disinterested science on this cash cow. Not a few lost their careers for doubting and the corruption was complete. Trenberth is a decent sort. From climategate revelations, he, Phil Jones and very few others agonized over the first half of the pause and what it might signify for the thereto unquestioned belief in CAGW. Jones all but retired after his ordeal with investigations even though they were whitewashes by anyone’s definition. Trenberth went frantically into panic mode searching for the missing heat, not wishing to have anymore painful epiphanies.
Most AGW scientists are guilty of unwittingly becoming useful idiots, spurred on by the masses, the now cash flush academic and other institutions, government largess and celebrity status. Maurice is indeed a diabolical fellow, quietly residing in China which he has always admired. Yes there are at least a few dishonest stars among them, but sadly it’s a toss-up whether dishonesty is better than useful idiothood for what are supposed to be the cream of intellectuals. Had I made the mistake and missed the Big Lie, I may also have had the climate science blues. You, yourself Steven, don’t seem as confident and chipper as you used to be.

Alx
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 3:41 pm

Presenting speculation and unproven or weakly supported hypothesis as absolutes like gravity and Einsteins E=MC2 is pretty damn poor science and an example of group-think on a scale that makes the O ring challenger disaster group-think insignificant in comparison. (I think the term “fallacy”, Scotsman or otherwise, should always be used in a discussion of climate science. Thanks for that.)
Throw in an unholy alliance between political activism and climate science and of course what else are you going to get other than the big lie. Zealotry does not mix with science, but zealots will use/abuse science as necessary for their goals. Whats surprising is how easily scientists are willing to be pimped.
Ball wasn’t lying, he was trying to understand how climate science went so far off the rails. It was speculation and opinion, it was not presented as science like the idiot consensus and other tinker-toy climate science related sociological studies.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 6:30 pm

Obviously Mosher has a serious man-crush on Dr. Ball.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 8:14 pm

Steven Mosher,

big liars?

I often ask the conspiracy theorists why the useless models aren’t tuned to match the falsified observational data a bit more convincingly. I mean, predictions are real easy if one knows beforehand what the manufactured outcome is going to be. The usual response to my query is [crickets].

Catherine Ronconi
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 8:43 pm

Brandon.
Ummm, because the predictions were made before reality showed them false.
Now the charlatans are busy trying to make excuses for why their predictions have failed so miserably.
Why is it that skeptics keep having to explain the most simple aspects of science to the Team’s performing monkeys?

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 2, 2014 11:16 pm

Catherine Ronconi,

Ummm, because the predictions were made before reality showed them false.

Well that’s an answer, but a curious one. How do you know what reality is if charlatans are running the show?

Now the charlatans are busy trying to make excuses for why their predictions have failed so miserably.

Who knows which version of reality you accept, but here are four of them: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1C2T0pQeiaSZ05kUXBrNW96alU
That ln(CO2ppmv) bit has been around since the late 19th century. The constant 5.35 wasn’t well constrained back then, but estimates ranged from 4ish to 7ish. Not a bad piece of work and as you can see it’s held up quite well.

Why is it that skeptics keep having to explain the most simple aspects of science to the Team’s performing monkeys?

My amusement begins with the presumption that you’ve got some sort of monopoly on skepticism. Performing monkeys is the pièce de résistance. Time to uncrate another irony meter …

James Evans
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 3, 2014 11:44 am

“really, a couple days after Ball indicts a whole field, after he accuses climate scientists of participating in the “Big lie” we have Bob noting trenberths open mind. ”
I’m pretty sure Ball and Tisdale are different people. I’m also pretty sure there are lots of people who comment here. Some might agree with Ball and disagree with Tisdale. And vice versa. Some might agree with both. Or disagree.
Steven, you have your panties in a knot because not all these voices are saying the same thing?
If you want contrived consensus, try the other lot.

milodonharlani
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 2, 2014 6:30 pm

I guess Steve took it personally. Which I guess he should.

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