The Week That Was: 2014-18-11 (October 18, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
A Modest Proposal: The 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contained an estimate of the sensitivity of the earth to a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is called climate sensitivity. The estimate was 1.5 – 4.5ºC. This is the same estimate as given in a 1979 report to the US National Academy of Science by a special group under MIT meteorologist Jule Charney. The inability to narrow this estimate demonstrates a lack of progress in the climate science embodied by the IPCC and its adherents such as the US National Climate Assessment produced by the US Global Change Research Program.
Since the publication of AR5, we have seen a number of papers published in various journals questioning the upper end of the range of climate sensitivity and suggesting it may be far too high. Indeed, the laboratory results on testing of the warming impact of a doubling of CO2 indicate that the climate sensitivity would be about 1.1ºC., about 2ºF. However, these tests were done using dry air, no water vapor. Except for the Polar Regions and the arid bands north and south of the tropics (equator) water vapor is prevalent, and it is the dominant greenhouse gas.
Writing in American Thinker, SEPP Chairman S. Fred Singer is developing the concept that the low end of the estimate may be far too high. Among other issues, he is advocating that climate sensitivity should be determine empirically by using satellite temperature data, which is far more comprehensive than surface temperature data and not prone to adjustments such as by moving measuring stations and by the Urban Heat Island Effect. Indeed, there has been no effort by the IPCC to perform basic hypothesis testing to establish that the climate sensitivity is statistically significantly greater than zero using satellite data.
No doubt, this effort will create great controversy not only among global warming alarmists, but also among many global warming skeptics – those skeptical that CO2 is causing dangerous global warming, extreme weather events, etc. But, such a controversy is both healthy and necessary due to the failure of government-supported climate scientists to advance scientific knowledge. As Singer concludes in his essay:
“I should note that I am somewhat out of step here with my fellow skeptics. Few of them would agree with me that the climate sensitivity (CS) is indeed close to zero. I will have to publish the analyses to prove my point and try to convince them. Of course, nothing, no set of facts, will ever convince the confirmed climate alarmists.”
See Article # 1.
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Quote of the Week: “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.” William of Ockham [H/t Tim Ball]
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Number of the Week: 50% by 2020
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CRU: Climate scientist Tim Ball studied under climate change pioneer HH Lamb. Lamb founded the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, which subsequently gained notoriety during the Climategate exposure of email correspondence among various climate researchers. Lamb strongly advocated that we must have an understanding of natural climate change in order to prepare for the future. In a brief essay, Ball explains how Lamb’s successor changed the thrust of empirically driven climate research to theoretically driven research based on sophisticated computer models. The models may appear to be elegant, but they greatly exceed any capability to measure important components of the climate system. As a consequence, the lack of empirical observations opens the door for sophisticated speculation in place of hard data. As Ball writes:
Conversely, people trying to determine what is wrong with the IPCC climate models consider a multitude of factors, when the failure is completely explained by one thing, insufficient data to construct a model.
Only 1000 stations have records of 100 years and almost all of them are in heavily populated areas of northeastern US or Western Europe and subject to urban heat island effect (UHIE)
A CRU produced map for the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report. It is a polar projection for the period from 1954 to 2003shows “No Data” for the Arctic Ocean (14 million km2), almost the size of Russia.
Ockham’s Razor indicates that any discussion about the complexities of climate models including methods, processes and procedures are irrelevant. They cannot work because the simple truth is the data, the basic building blocks of the model, are completely inadequate.
The fascination the IPCC and its adherents have for climate models is unfounded. Further, Ball demonstrates that the surface data is significantly lacking. For these, and other reasons, TWTW discounts any pronouncements of “hottest month ever” by various government entities such as NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which focuses on surface temperatures, not measurements from space. Very simply, GISS does not have the data to backup any grand pronouncements. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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UK Climate Change Act: In giving the annual address to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Owen Paterson, the Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs from 2012 to 2014, called for a fundamental change in energy policy and explicitly called for the abolition of the Climate Change Act, on which energy policy is based in the United Kingdom. He is the most visible politician to speak against the Act, which was passed by Parliament in 2008, with an overwhelming majority. The future costs of electricity appears to be getting some politicians nervous. Peter Atherton writes in Liberum:
We have long argued that current EU/UK energy policy is deeply flawed and that utility companies and public market investors should be wary of committing further capital to support and deliver it. Advice which has been increasingly accepted in recent times. After all, an energy policy that has the Hinkley Point C contract [nuclear power plant] and off-shore wind as its two flagship achievements must eventually collapse under the weight of its own idiocy.
See links under Questioning European Green.
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Keeping the Lights On: To its credit, the House of Lords Science and Technology committee published written evidence it received on its inquiry into the resilience of the UK electricity infrastructure. The future may be grim, with the ability of the electricity infrastructure to keep up with consumption during a cold winter questionable. Yet, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) claims that its renewable energy policy will actually save consumers money. Often the wind does not blow on a cold still night. Will the public have DECC white papers to burn?
The Scientific Alliance published its submission. The sections in the report on electricity storage, interconnectivity, and management of demand should give pause to all but the most ardent supporters of intermittent, unreliable electricity generation. See links under Questioning European Green.
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Still Wind Power: Mid-morning on October 14, this author was driving along US Interstate # 10, near Palm Springs, in the desert east of Los Angles, California. We passed miles of wind turbines at various elevations – unknown hundreds, if not thousands. Few blades were turning, less than 5%. One must be careful not to overgeneralize from such an experience. But wind farms have high capital costs and are being heavily subsidized by the Federal and California governments. The costs of backup is provided by others, but ultimately by the consumers.
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Pretense of Knowledge: Economist Donald Boudreaux and his co-author Todd Zywicki had interesting comments in the Wall Street Journal.
Forty years ago the Nobel Prize in Economic Science was awarded to a scholar who believed the prize perhaps should not exist. As he graciously accepted the distinction in 1974, Austrian-British economist Friedrich A. Hayek worried aloud that thinking of economics as a science might fuel what he called “the pretense of knowledge”—the idea that anyone could know enough to engineer society successfully. He was right to fret.
Perhaps the same applies to what is called climate science and the IPCC received the Nobel Peace Prize too soon. See Article # 2
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Department of Defense: Since the 1970s the US Department of Defense has received a great deal of bitter criticism, some of it earned, much of it not. The pentagon has unveiled its plan to “fight” climate change, which it claims to be a threat to national security. From the foreword of its roadmap:
Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe. In our defense strategy, we refer to climate change as a “threat multiplier” because it has the potential to exacerbate many of the challenges we are dealing with today – from infectious disease to terrorism. We are already beginning to see some of these impacts.
A long standing criticism of the Pentagon is that it prepares for the last war. Perhaps no one in the Pentagon recognizes that global warming has stopped and that the models used greatly overestimate 21st century warming. The statement reveals that the Department already participates in nationwide efforts such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the National Climate Assessment sustained assessment process. Of course, the Assessment is a version of the IPCC report tailored for the US, consequently likely to be even less accurate. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy.
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Ebola: Generally, TWTW does not comment on health or public health issues unless there are clear scientific problems with the stated public policy, such as the EPA’s finding that CO2 endangers human health. However, the Administration’s pronouncements about Ebola seem to show a total disinterest in public health. As if to confirm this, the President just appointed a person to coordinate a strategy on Ebola. According to reports, the major qualifications of Ron Klain are political. He was chief of staff for former Vice President Al Gore and Vice President Joe Biden. He has no experience in medicine, public health, infectious diseases, etc. There will be further discussion in the next TWTW. See Articles # 4 and # 5 and links under Other Scientific News
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Race to the Bottom: Several colleagues have been speculating on which US government agency will be the first to claim a link between Ebola and global warming/climate change. The apparent winner is the US Fish and Wildlife Service of the Department of Interior. See links under Below the Bottom Line.
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No Regulations on Shale: A report by the director of the Department of Mineral Resources of the North Dakota Industrial Commission contained an interesting statement:
BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were sent to the White House Office of Management and Budget for interagency review on August 26 and Department of Interior announced a continuing commitment to their goal of issuing a final rule by year end of 2014.
In almost six years the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and other government agencies have failed to fully address the permitting of hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands. Yet federal agencies are considering listing the Dakota Skipper, Rufa Red Knot, Sprague’s Pippit, Greater Sage Grouse, Monarch, Sturgeon Chub, and Sicklefin Chub under the Endangered Species Act. See links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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Additions and Corrections: Last week TWTW carried an article from Fred Singer that omitted as a sub-title the following paragraph:
Compared to a carbon tax, a tax on all forms of energy represents a lesser evil; neither tax will “save the climate.” Excessive regulation and the quest for non-CO2-emitting energy have added extra costs — mimicking an energy tax without adding revenues to the US Treasury.
Last week TWTW quoted from a post by Luboš Motl on paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity that contained an error some readers found confusing. TWTW did not contain a suggested correction that makes the sentence legible.
However, while I this think [sic] that the paper seems to display lots of expertise and calm heads, there is one aspect of this paper – and lots of other papers – that I find totally inconceivable. It is the asymmetry of the 5%-95% ranges of the climate sensitivity. In particular, the huge values of the “still plausible” long-term climate sensitivity – the upper bound goes up to 4 °C – isn’t really possible.
The comments about climate sensitivity and the central limit theorem still apply.
See link http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/10/paper-tcr-ecs-climate-sensitivity-13-16.html
TWTW appreciates all additions and corrections.
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Number of the Week: 50% by 2020. According to an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on Oct 14:
The Navy has a plan to generate 50% of its energy from alternative sources by 2020, including buying $3.5 billion in biofuels, and it has also awarded contracts to build so-called biorefineries.
Apparently, the Navy is blissfully unaware about what is happening in North Dakota and elsewhere in the US, where oil is being obtained from dense shale, and that the US is now the world’s largest producer petroleum products and natural gas. See Article # 6 and links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. The Climate Sensitivity Controversy
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Oct 15, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/10/the_climate_sensitivity_controversy.html
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2. A Nobel Economist’s Caution About Government
Friedrich Hayek warned that intervening can make things worse. ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank, anyone?
By Donald Boudreaux and Todd Zywicki, WSJ, Oct 12, 2014
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3. How to Stop Winning Nobel Prizes in Science
Washington’s vacillating commitment to basic research makes scientific breakthroughs less likely.
By Thomas Cech and Steven Chu, WSJ, Oct 15, 2014
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4. The Ebola Twilight of Public Institutions
The WHO and CDC are failing in their core health mission.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 16, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-ebola-twilight-of-public-institutions-1413415407
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5. Who Do They Think We Are?
The administration’s Ebola evasions reveal its disdain for the American people.
By Peggy Noonan, WSJ, Oct 16, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/who-do-they-think-we-are-1413502475
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6. The Pentagon Goes to Climate War
Hagel wants to retool the military to stop glaciers from melting.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 14, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-pentagon-goes-to-climate-war-1413329782
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Climate Dialogue about the sun
By Marcel Crok, WUWT, Oct 17, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/17/climate-dialogue-about-the-sun/
The Sun says
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 16, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/16/the-sun-says.html
Link to posts: What will happen during a new Maunder Minimum?
By Staff Writers, Climate Dialogue, Oct 15, 2014
http://www.climatedialogue.org/what-will-happen-during-a-new-maunder-minimum/
Climategate Continued
Millennial Quebec Tree Rings
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Oct 13, 2014
http://climateaudit.org/2014/10/13/millennial-quebec-tree-rings/#more-20107
Challenging the Orthodoxy
A Simple Truth; Computer Climate Models Cannot Work
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 16, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/16/a-simple-truth-computer-climate-models-cannot-work/
The climate crunch
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Oct 12, 2014
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2014_october.htm#crunch
The first thing to understand is that it is nothing to do with climate. It has everything to do with the Climate Change Act, which also has nothing to do with climate. It was Ed Milliband’s magnum opus, and a monumental exemplar of the triumph of fantastical scaremongering over calm reason. Nothing is more illustrative of the state of decay of our political class than that this disastrous act was passed by the House of Commons virtually unopposed. It was an economic suicide note writ large. The great irony of the last decade and a half of our history has been that the climate crunch has been delayed by a politically generated recession.
Climate Change: A Meaningless Artifact of Technology?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/climate-change-a-meaningless-artifact-of-technology/
Soapbox: CO2 increase is not nemesis as it’s portrayed
By William Gray, Coloradoan, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t Real Science]
The Green Delusion
By Vincent Gray, NZClimate Truth Newsletter No 336, Oct 15, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/the-green-delusion.html
50,000 dot com
By Charles Battig, American Thinker, Oct 10, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/blog/2014/10/50000_dot_com.html
[SEPP Comment: The absurdity of the Federal courts and the EPA declaring CO2 is a pollutant.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Carney raises the heat on climate: you can’t burn all the oil
A public call by Bank of England governor Mark Carney that the vast majority of oil reserves should be considered “unburnable” if the world wants to avoid catastrophic climate change makes him stand out among mainstream figures.
By Jon Hay, Emerging Markets, Oct 12, 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]
[SEPP Comment: What logic! Stranded assets would still be valued by investors? Would Mr. Carney desire his assets become stranded?]
State Dept. climate envoy talks global accord, US expectations
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Oct 14, 2014
The Race to Replace Pachauri Heats Up
Veteran climateer Jean-Pascal van Ypersele has announced his candidacy to replace the retiring IPCC chief, who stands down next year. Expect the result to be determined more by politics and the Third World than a reverence for scientific competence
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Oct 9, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/tony-thomas/2014/10/race-replace-pachauri-heats/
[SEPP Comment: Some years ago, van Ypersele used his position with IPCC to force a change in venue for a lecture by Fred Singer. Apparently, he is intolerant of those who dare question his views]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Global Warming Scare Declared Over
By Bob Unrah, WND, Oct 12, 2014 [H/t SPPI]
http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/global-warming-scare-declared-over/#EDFWhZsbBmc1ih5k.99
The Cherry-Picking Climate Change Committee
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Oct 16, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.com/cherry-picking-climate-committee/
Link to statement: Owen Paterson’s speech to the GWPF – the CCC’s response
By Staff Writers, Committee on Climate Change, Oct 15, 2014
[SEPP Comment: The CCC slogan is: “Independent advice to Government on building a low-carbon economy” [Boldface in the original] Imagine how the greens would attack an Exxon-Mobil slogan such as “Independent advice to Government on building a high-carbon economy.”]
Yet another significant paper finds low climate sensitivity to CO2, suggesting there is no global warming crisis at hand
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 14, 2014
The ABC’s Stacked Audit Deck
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Oct 15, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/10/abcs-stacked-audit-deck/
Catalyst – raising public awareness of science, or promoting big-government science instead?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2014
UK Energy Policy – Debate Opens Up (a bit)
Owen Paterson GWPF Speech
By Peter Atherton, Liberum, Oct 16, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.liberum.com/pdf/8fvMpRSj.pdf
Life as You Know It Will End if John Kerry is Wrong…OR Right
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/life-as-you-know-it-will-end-if-john-kerry-is-wrong-or-right/
Global warming: Can Owen Paterson save us from an unimaginable energy disaster?
There is no way of meeting the Climate Change Act’s targets, except by closing down Britain’s entire economy
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Oct 11, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Climate change forecasts ‘exaggerated’, ex-environment secretary Owen Paterson claims
Sacked Tory Cabinet member says there is “considerable uncertainty” over how much global warming will be caused by greenhouse gas emissions
BY Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Oct 15, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
How Safe is the Air You Breathe in Planes?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 15, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/how-safe-is-the-air-you-breathe-on-planes/
[SEPP Comment: EPA declares that CO2 emissions endanger human health. Yet, the CO2 concentration Spencer measured in the airplane is over 4 times the concentration of ambient air. How many lives were endangered?]
Quote of the Day
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Oct 12, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/10/quote-of-the-day-10.php
Where have all the walrus gone?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 12, 2014
http://polarbearscience.com/2014/10/12/where-have-all-the-walrus-gone/
At a snail’s pace: Species rediscovered, but paper on its disappearance remains
By Staff Writer, Retraction Watch, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Social Benefits of Carbon
Carbon cycle: better than we thought
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 14, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/14/carbon-cycle-better-than-we-thought.html
Link to paper: Impact of mesophyll diffusion on estimated global land CO2 fertilization
By Ying Sunk et al, PNAS, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/10/1418075111
Climate change Doubt: Study shows carbon dioxide levels in atmosphere are Overstated
CLIMATE change forecasts may be overestimates due to a failure to take into account how plants absorb carbon dioxide, scientists warned today.
By John Ingham, Express, UK, Oct 13, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Backyard Birds Spreading as Climate Changes
Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Oct 17, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/backyard-birds-spreading-climate-changes
[SEPP Comment: A more robust environment from increased CO2.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Poland leads charge against EU climate package
Poland’s Economy Minister and Deputy PM Janusz Piechocinski has said that the EU’s proposal on CO2 emissions reduction would “destroy European industry”
By Staff Writers, Polskie Radio, Oct 16, 2014
http://www.thenews.pl/1/6/Artykul/184466,Poland-leads-charge-against-EU-climate-package
Opposition [to the Polish Government] would support EU CO2 cuts veto
Poland’s largest opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) says it would support a veto by Prime Minister Kopacz on climate change in Brussels next week if the move harmed the Polish economy.
By Staff Writers, Polskie Radio, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/184537,Opposition-would-support-EU-CO2-cuts-veto
EU struggles to agree 2030 climate targets for October summit
By Staff writers, AFP, Oct 10, 2014
The green blob speaks
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 13, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/13/the-green-blob-speaks.html
ANALYSIS: Global Warming Hysteria Is Tearing The World Apart
By Michael, Bastasch, Daily Caller, Oct 11, 2014
http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/11/analysis-global-warming-hysteria-is-tearing-the-world-apart/
[SEPP Comment: The headline is overstated.]
Adapt to climate and cut emissions, say Brazil, South Africa, India and China
By Urmi Goswami, Economic Times of India, Oct 13, 2014
Climate Change Dying As An Issue In German Media…Empty Seats Pack Hamburg “9th Extreme Weather Congress”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 11, 2014
Seeking a Common Ground
Global warming facts must give us all pause to think
Editorial, The Australian, Oct 18, 2014 [H/t Des Moore]
Sophistry about the past decade being the warmest also ducks the point; it is not about a decline but whether warming is continuing or pausing at the present high level. The gatekeepers of scientific, media and political debate should not be afraid of a discussion about the facts and their ramifications.
Climate Science: Separating Mistakes From Malfeasance
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 12, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/12/climate-science-separating-mistakes-from-malfeasance/
Words of wisdom from Charles Lyell
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 14, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/10/14/words-of-wisdom-from-charles-lyell/#more-17047
Eco-Authoritarian Catastrophism: The Dismal and Deluded Vision of Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway
By Martin Lewis, GeoCurrents, Oct 9, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Climate change not responsible for altering forest tree composition
By Staff Writers, University Park PA (SPX), Oct 17, 2014
Models v. Observations
Another IPCC modeling failure – so THAT’s where the atmospheric methane went
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 15, 2014
Model Issues
I have a computer model
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 13, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/13/i-have-a-computer-model.html
Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts
By Chris Edwards, CATO, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.cato.org/blog/accuracy-macroeconomic-forecasts
Measurement Issues
Hottest Year Ever?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2014
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/hottest-year-ever/
GISS Targeted Data Truncation And Tricks Alone Produce Half Of The Warming Trend Since 1880
It Is Even Worse Than I Thought!
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Oct 15, 2014
Using 1999 GISS Data, Global Warming Trend Since 1866 Only 0.5°C Per Century!
How Much Global Warming?
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Oct 12, 2014
With ARGO, There is a Wide Range Warming (and Cooling) Rates of the Oceans to Depths of 2000 Meters
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Oct 17, 2014
Changing Weather
Target, Bermuda: Will Hurricane Gonzalo Rival Fabian?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 16, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/target-bermuda-will-hurricane-gonzalo-rival-fabian/
Severe weather alert: U.S. study finds tornadoes coming in swarms
By Will Dunham, Reuters, Oct 16, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/severe-weather-alert-u-study-finds-tornadoes-coming-180212987.html
[SEPP Comment: Prior to the May 2011 outbreak, on March 5, 2011, TWTW linked to an article by Joe D’Aleo of ICECAP (and WeatherBell) discussing the possibility of tornado swarms. D’Aleo stated that tornadoes tend to be more frequent in the south and Ohio Valley during a cool, La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tend to stay on the ground longer as compared with an warm El Niño phase, when the tornadoes tend to be in the lesser populated Great Plains. Also such La Niña conditions tend to produce “tornado swarms.”
Polar vortex will likely make a return this winter, says Accuweather
By Angela Fritz, Capital Weather Gang, Oct 15, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Changing Climate
NASA Study Finds 1934 Had Worst Drought of Last Thousand Years
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 14, 2014
Weather, Climate, Arctic Ice And The Franklin Expedition
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 17, 2014
http://drtimball.com/2014/weather-climate-arctic-ice-and-the-franklin-expedition/
Plant communities in Holy Land can cope with climate change of ‘biblical’ dimensions
By Staff Writers, Newark NJ (SPX), Oct 15, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Were plants tougher then than now?]
Changing Seas
Expert Blasts Alfred Wegener Institute Ocean Acidification Claim: “Clear Falsification Of Scientific Facts”
Ocean acidification: The terrible little brother of global warming
By D. E. Koelle, Trans. P Gosselin, Oct 16, 2014
Microbes in deep-sea rocks eat methane, lots of it
By Brooks Hays, Pasadena, Calif. (UPI), Oct 16, 2014
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Microbes_in_deep-sea_rocks_eat_methane_lots_of_it_999.html
New paper claims after 6,000 year ‘pause’, sea levels began rising 150 years ago
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Oct 14, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/new-paper-claims-after-6000-year-pause.html
[SEPP Comment: Question the suggestion that sea levels were stable for about 6,000 years.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Ice Trends Since 1864
By Paul Homewood, Not A Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2014
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/arctic-ice-trends-since-1864/
Both studies bear out HH Lamb’s findings concerning the longer term trends in the Arctic, and show clearly why monitoring trends only since 1979 can be highly misleading.
Antarctic ice at ALL TIME RECORD HIGH: We have more to learn, says boffin
Four-deviations-above-average figs bust climate models
By Lewis Page, The Register, Oct 9, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Austrian Daily Reports: “Huge Ice Growth Surprises Climate Scientists” … “Like One Not Seen In Decades”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 15, 2014
Churchill problem bears and early breakup dates in WHB: The 1983 & 2004 anomalies
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 15, 2014
New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Oct 11, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/new-paper-finds-west-antarctic-glacier.html
Link to paper: Variable crustal thickness beneath Thwaites Glacier revealed from airborne gravimetry, possible implications for geothermal heat flux in West Antarctica
By Theresa M. Damiania, et al. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Dec 1, 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14005780
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Owen Paterson says ‘wicked’ green blob protests against GM research kill thousands every day
Greenpeace reacts angrily after the former Environment Secretary says opposition toward research on genetically modified food has caused ‘enormous suffering’
By Ben Riley-Smith, Telegraph, UK, Oct 16, 204
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Icebergs once drifted to Florida, new climate model suggests
By Staff Writers, Amherst MA (SPX), Oct 15, 2014
September sets new temperature record
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 13, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220539-september-sets-new-temperature-record
Weather History Time Machine
By Staff Writers, San Diego CA (SPX), Oct 17, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Weather_History_Time_Machine_999.html
The high degree of difficulty and expertise required means that relatively few climate scientists have been able to base their research on accurate models of historical precipitation. Now, a new software program developed by a research team including San Diego State University Distinguished Professor of Mathematics and Statistics Samuel Shen will democratize this ability, allowing far more researchers access to these models.
“In the past, only a couple dozen scientists could do these reconstructions,” Shen said. “Now, anybody can play with this user-friendly software, use it to inform their research, and develop new models and hypotheses. This new tool brings historical precipitation reconstruction from a ‘rocket science’ to a ‘toy science.'”
[SEPP Comment: The term ‘toy science’ may be appropriate.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate change: it’s only human to exaggerate, but science itself does not
By Rob MacKenzie, The Conversation, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: The great overestimates of 21st century warming in the models are not an exaggeration? Defending the Stephen Schneider syndrome?]
Renewables to spur power generation in Africa, IEA says
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Oct 13, 2014
Bloomberg reports energy demand will increase 80 percent south of the Sahara Desert, and renewable energy and hydropower are expected to supply nearly half of that growth.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find link to report.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
GAO: Feds should do more to stop ocean acidification
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 15, 2014
Rising sea levels of 1.8 meters in worst-case scenario
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Oct 17, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Rising_sea_levels_of_1_8_meters_in_worst_case_scenario_999.html
UCS Forget To Mention Subsidence [sec]
By Paul Homewood, No A Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2014
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/ucs-forget-to-mention-subsidence/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Pentagon: Climate change a national security threat
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Oct 13, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220575-pentagon-unveils-plan-to-fight-climate-change
Link to report: 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap
By Chuck Hagel and Staff, DOD, Oct 13, 2014
https://www.scribd.com/doc/242845848/Read-DoD-report-2014-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Roadmap
Pentagon unveils plan for military’s response to climate change
By W.J. Hennigan, LA Times, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-hagel-climate-change-20141013-story.html
Boots Finally on the Ground…to Fight Global Warming
By Lauri B. Regan, American Thinker, Oct 15, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/10/boots_finally_on_the_groundto_fight_global_warming.html
Climate wars: The Pentagon doesn’t need more global hotspots
Editorial, Pittsburg Post-Gazette, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Hey, Defense Department: Focus on ISIS, not Climate Change
By Nicolas Loris, Daily Signal, Oct 14, 2014
Warring against Warming
The Obama administration marshals its military might against climate change.
By Ian Tuttle, National Review, Oct 14, 2014
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/390224/warring-against-warming-ian-tuttle
Will Obama Only Fight Carbon-Neutral Wars?
Editorial, IBD, Oct 14, 2014
Questioning European Green
UK Energy Policy – Debate Opens Up (a bit)
Owen Paterson GWPF Speech
By Peter Atherton, Liberum, Oct 16, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.liberum.com/pdf/8fvMpRSj.pdf
Keeping the lights on
By Martian Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 17, 2014
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/keeping-lights
Link to submission: Inquiry on Resilience of Electricity Infrastructure
By Miller, Gibson, & Laughton, Scientific Alliance, No Date
[SEPP Comment: The following statement may be incorrect. “This turns out to be far from the truth; as the contribution of wind energy rises, then so does the degree to which it displaces other generation methods, because of the need for conventional backup.” A more correct version may be: As the contribution of wind energy rises, so does the need for reliable backup.]
UK’s wind farm ‘folly’: Electric bills to soar by £1000 thanks to reliance on wind power
HOUSEHOLDERS are facing soaring energy bills and winter power cuts thanks to the “folly” of relying on wind power, experts said last night.
By John Ingham, Express, UK, Oct 15, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/522800/Wind-farms-blamed-for-winter-power-cut-and-rise-energy-bills
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
An energy policy that makes little sense
If action is not taken now, the next government will have to explain why it let Britain’s lights go out
Editorial, Telegraph, UK, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/11157454/An-energy-policy-that-makes-little-sense.html
Bill Carmichael: Welcome voice of sense on ‘green blob’
By Bill Carmichael, Yorkshire Post, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Bees and pesticides
A precautionary ban has made things worse for bees
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/bees-and-pesticides.aspx
Green Jobs
Offshore wind projects ‘grinding to a halt’
RenewableUK issues warning to government as RWE shelves investment for Suffolk wind farm
By Staff Writers, PE, Oct 13, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.imeche.org/news/engineering/offshore-wind-projects-‘grinding-to-a-halt’13101402
[SEPP Comment: At what point will green jobs no longer require subsidies?]
Non-Green Jobs
Fracking boom has been a jobs boon for North Dakota
By JC Reindl, Detroit Free Press, Oct 12, 2014
Study: Marcellus shale created 45,000 construction jobs
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 14, 2014
Link to study, Domestic Energy Exploration Creates 45,000 Construction Jobs
By Robert Bruno and Michael Cornfield, for The Oil and Natural Gas Industry Labor-Management Committee, Oct 14, 2014
Funding Issues
How to Stop Wasting Money on Science
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Oct 17, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/how-stop-wasting-money-science
Dirty Development Money
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Oct 14, 2014
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Stones Into Bread: False Claims of CO2 Taxation
By Robert Murphy, Master Resource, Oct 6, 2014
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-policy/fallacy-fee-dividend/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA ignores its own economic analyses, small business agency says
By Sean Higgins, Washington Examiner, Oct 16, 2014
Evidence Of EPA-Environmentalist Collusion Continues To Pile Up
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Oct 14, 2014 [H/t William Readdy]
http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/14/evidence-of-epa-environmentalist-collusion-continues-to-pile-up/
Did The Most Expensive Regulation Ever Just Arrive At The White House?
By Chris Prandoni, Forbes, Oct 14, 2014
The EPA Chief’s Text Messages Go Missing
Gina McCarthy deleted thousands of texts from her agency cellphone; the EPA says they were personal.
By Jillian Kay Melchior, National Review, Oct 9, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Oil: What Are the Saudis Up To?
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Oct 13, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/10/oil-what-are-the-saudis-up-to.php
The Saudi Death Knell For Petrotyrants
Editorial, IBD, Oct 14, 2014
Energy: the blackout that cometh
By Richard North, EU Referendum, Oct 15, 2014
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85250
Instead, the government should be asked what the evidence is that the lights will stay on. On current form, it has none.
Failure to deny
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 16, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/10/16/failure-to-deny.html
[SEPP Comment: The Committee on Climate Change fails to address the major issues.]
Energy Issues — US
“The State of Energy: Strong and Transformative” (Exxon Mobil’s Tillerson Right On)
By Robert Bradley, Jr. Master Resource, Oct 15, 2014
https://www.masterresource.org/exxon-mobil/energy-strong-transformative-tillerson/
Trouble Ahead…Administration has Its Head in the Sand
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Oct 16, 2014
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
[SEPP Comment: The consumers in the Northeast will soon be paying dearly for the energy policies favored by the politicians.]
Energy Efficiency Is Second-Largest Power Resource in Pacific Northwest
By Aaron Larson, Power, Oct 15, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Labeling a temporary reduction in consumption as a resource is too much.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
The Keystone Pipeline — Will It Ever Be Built?
By William Tucker, Real Clear Politics, Oct 15, 2014
No Keystone XL Pipeline? No Problem, Says Canadian Firm Planning To Send Crude East Instead Of South
By Angelo Young, International Business Times, Oct 8, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Given the geological problems, building a pipeline from Alberta south is far less expensive than building one east or west. Only Washington blocks the way.]
The Final Word on Yucca
By Jack Spencer and Katie Tubb, Daily Signal, Oct 19, 2014 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://dailysignal.com/2014/10/16/final-word-yucca/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
ND oil formations produce 1 billion barrels
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 15, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220842-nd-oil-formations-produce-1-billion-barrels
Link to report: Director’s Cut
By Lynn Helms, NDIC Department of Mineral Resources, Oct 15, 2014
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2014-10-15.pdf
The increasing precision and efficiency of revolutionary drilling technologies have made US world’s largest producer [of petroleum products and natural gas, combined.]
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Oct 16, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Could the shale oil boom be ending? It all depends on oil prices
By Michael Casey, Fortune, Oct 10, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://fortune.com/2014/10/10/could-the-shale-oil-boom-be-ending-it-all-depends-on-oil-prices/
Return of King Coal?
Australian PM: ‘Coal is good for humanity’
By Laura Barron-Lopez, Oct 13, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220609-australian-pm-coal-is-good-for-humanity
Faltering economy hits China’s coal sector
By Philip Wen, Sydney Morning Herald, Oct 14, 2014 [H/t Quadrant]
[SEPP Comment: Import duties to protect the domestic coal-mining industry, which has over-capacity.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Global Nuclear Industry Optimistic
By Gail Reitenbach, Power, Oct 14, 2014
Skunk Works Reveals Compact Fusion Reactor Details
Lockheed Martin aims to develop compact reactor prototype in five years, production unit in 10
By Guy Norris, Aviation Week, Oct 15, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
http://aviationweek.com/technology/skunk-works-reveals-compact-fusion-reactor-details
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Desertec Desert Solar Project Comes Unraveled
By Staff Writers, AP, Oct 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1017661-desertec-desert-solar-project-comes-unraveled/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Impact of Electric Vehicles on Grid
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 17, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/10/17/impact-of-electric-vehicles-on-grid/
[SEPP Comment: Addressing the hidden costs.]
Electric Vehicle Update
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 14, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/electric-vehicle-update-4/
California Dreaming
Wyoming-to-L.A. ‘Stored’ Windpower? Think Twice the Cost
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Oct 8, 2014
https://www.masterresource.org/tanton-tom/wyoming-la-wind-windfall/
[SEPP Comment: Questioning the costs of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Life expectancy in the US continues to climb
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 15, 2014
http://acsh.org/2014/10/life-expectancy-us-continues-climb/
Link to report: Mortality in the United States, 2012
By Jiaquan Xu, M.D.; Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A.; Sherry L. Murphy, B.S.; Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., NCHS, Oct 2014
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db168.htm
[SEPP Comment: As global warming (?), carbon dioxide concentrations) and fossil fuel use increase? Don’t tell the EPA.]
Environmental Industry
Coal and Corruption
By Marina Lou, a legal adviser at Greenpeace International, specializing in financial-market regulation, Project Syndicate, Oct 16, 2014
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coal-industry-corruption-by-marina-lou-2014-10
[SEPP Comment: Political corruption would not exist without fossil fuels?]
Spanish Firm Under Federal Investigation Wins $230 Million in DOE Subsidies
Former employees describe pervasive illegality at company under investigation by DOL and USCIS
By Lachlan Markay, Washington Free Beacon, Oct 17, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: See link from Greenpeace immediately above.]
Other Scientific News
Doctors Chief: CDC Curbs Secondhand Smoke More Than Ebola
By Bill Hoffmann and Todd Beamon, Newsmax, Oct 16, 2014
Halting the spread of Ebola: Case of Nigeria a model for quick action, scientists find
Rapid control measures critical to stopping the virus in its tracks
By Cheryl Dybas, NSF, Oct 16, 2014
http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=133050&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click
Terence Corcoran: WHO battles climate and sugar, misses Ebola
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Oct 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/14/terence-corcoran-who-and-world-bank-fail-ebola-crisis/
Other News that May Be of Interest
When Racism Was a Science,
‘Haunted Files: The Eugenics Record Office’ Recreates a Dark Time in a Laboratory’s Past
By Joshua Krich, NYT, Oct 13, 2014
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Ebola: ‘Consequence of Deforestation and Climate Change’
By Penny Starr, CNS News, Oct 19, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to web site: Conservation Implications of the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa
By Staff Writers, US Fish and Wildlife, No date
https://www.fws.gov/international/publications-and-media/ebola-outbreak.html
“Ebola appears to be a direct consequence of deforestation and human disturbance, the article stated. Outbreaks are linked to long dry seasons (a consequence of deforestation and climate change), during which there is scarcity of food in the forest…”
Energy: a cure for megalophilia
By Richard North, EU Referendum, Oct 14, 2014
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85249
Eye roller – ‘Concrete’s life span is shortened by climate change’
Tell it to the Romans, who used concrete to build The Coliseum, which is still standing.
By Anthony Watts,WUWT, Oct 15, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/15/eye-roller-concretes-life-span-is-shortened-by-climate-change/
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So 35 years later and the estimates remain at 1.5 – 4.5ºC?
After 35 years and countless scientific papers on the the grave danger of CO2 and AGW, there is ZERO progress in understanding or fine tuning how the flipping flying donut of our climate reacts to CO2?
You got to be kidding.
On the other hand, the thing that is so great and interesting about following climate news is that it is as if The Three Stooges are directing the whole enterprise.
“According to reports, the major qualifications of Ron Klain are political. He was chief of staff for former Vice President Al Gore and Vice President Joe Biden. He has no experience in medicine, public health, infectious diseases, etc.”
Chosen to fail, then, just as so many others.
Ebola may not be the one (and probably won’t be, touch wood).
But Sweet Jane, when we’re relying on the Pentagon to warn us about the dangers of transmissible disease then someone is asleep on the job and some priorities have gone AWOL.
As with all Socialist governments, a ‘sound’ political appointment wins over anyone with actual expertise. Always leads to disaster.
RE: Bardarbunga volcano, fissure eruption at Holuhraun.
The Webcams are bright and clear for the first time in two weeks, eruption still going strong by all accounts.
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
Great volcano picture web site: Lukas-Gawenda. #3 of 26 is excellent. Sme long lens work, too.
http://www.lukas-gawenda.de/bildergalerie/vulkanausbruch-island/
Past nine 48 hour blocks of seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:
For about three days, there were almost no quakes at the fissure. In the past 24 hrs there has been a M5.4, 5, 5.2 at the crater, and a resumption of quakes at the fissure. Activity west of Bardarbuna continues. The map shows a broader area of quakes, some on the north flank of Bard, West of Bard is more spread out.
While the Number of M4.5+ quakes has remained constant, the number of M3.0-4.5 quakes is lower than in previous weeks.
October 19 is the first good web cam pictures I’ve seen in two weeks. The Bard2 camera shows fountains and bright lava flow to the left.
The comments closed on the Oct.4 Open Thread. where there are previous posts of Bardarbunga observations.
Over at Jon Frímann’s blog… Bárðarbunga volcano eruption in Holuhraun did reach one big milestone today (17-October-2014). It is now the largest eruption in Iceland since the eruption in Laki (Skaftáreldar) in 1783 – 1784 eruption. By volume the lava field in Holuhraun is now larger than the 1947 eruption in Hekla volcano that is 0,8 km³ by volume and took 13 months to erupt that amount of lava. Current size of the lava field in Holuhraun is larger then 59 square kilometres (km²) in size, or around 0,83 km³ by volume according to University of Iceland Tweet on this matter. University of Iceland also has new map of the lava field, I just don’t know how to link to that image here.
Seismic activity in the fissure is back up to levels of last week. Activity West of Bardarbunga is lower.
Web cams are black again.
Stephen what is the subsistence like at the caldera?
Sorry, answered my own question 30-40 cm per day.
Last week I drove from where I live 5 miles south of the Canadian border on Hwy 97 in Washington State to Mt. Shasta in California. I passed hundreds of idle wind turbines. None, no exaggeration, were turning at a rate consistent with power generation and those that were slowly ticking over were isolated single towers. Some days later I returned along the same route and saw the same situation – mile after mile of idle blades with an occasional slow-turning blade.
Hwy 97 runs south from Oroville, WA along the Okanogan river. The river is fed from Lake Osoyoos which spans the border between Canada and Washington and joins the Columbia river near the Chief Joseph dam. The lake, the Okanogan river, and the Columbia river were at normal levels for this time of year. All the Columbia river dams were creating essential energy, irrigation, critical water for commercial and personal use, habitat, and recreation. The turbines created only outrage and the wasted expense and gross inefficiency.
I would agree that our current data on CO2 and past changes in global temp give no reason to think CO2 level has any affect on average temperature. Specificaly, the two data sets I am speaking about are the current instramental record which shows a very poor correlation between the two and the historical ice core proxy data (for temp and CO2 levels) which shows CO2 following temp with no indication of forcing in the reverse order. The idea that CO2 does play a signifacant role comes from controlled lab experiments demonstrating the the absorbtion capacity of CO2 and also the general lack of understanding of why the earth maintains such a narrow range of temperature where CO2 is used as a kind of fudge factor. In both cases data trumps philosophy and currently the data simply does not support a measurable sesitivity to CO2.
Yes there absolutely was a eugenics movement in the USA. It went on for nearly forty years and all the billionaires and both political parties had to be in on this. Just like both parties were in on tearing down the financial firewalls that were put into place after the Great Depression. The big Q is if the ugly thing lives. So early voting begins today and I will soon go and be thinking like a chicken, shall I vote for Don Tyson on the left or Colonel Sanders on the right?
http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/1796
They pretty much all were ‘Progressives’ back when this thing got started.
Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:
The changes in activity from Oct 9 to Oct. 21 are remarkable.From Oct. 13-16, seismic activity at the fissure and NE of Askja all but stopped and shifted to the West of Bardarbunga with vigor (at least 17 quakes up to M2.8 and 0-4 km). Overall seismic activity dropped, particularly in areas away from the West of Bard area. Then sometime on Oct 18, probably related to the Mag 5.4 quake, it seems that seismic activity returned to the fissure and Askja, abandoning West of Bard. The past 48 hours (Oct. 19-21) shows seismic activity little different from Oct 3-7, except there is less activity in the Reykj Peninsula, Tjornes Fracture zone and offshore.
It was like about Oct. 14 there was a blockage of flow from the Bardarbunga magma chamber to the fissure. West of Bardarbunga became a safety valve. Then on Oct. 18 the blockage was reduced allowing increased flow of magma back to the fissure and Askja area. There was no reported reduction in eruptive flow at the fissure during this period and the webcams were blank, presumably weathered in.
A
good article at volcanocafe from two weeks ago.
Link to a page of graphics for the total history of seismic events. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/
Total subsidence of the crater is 16 meters.
[repost of 10:56 am to fix a CRLF in the table]
Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:
The changes in activity from Oct 9 to Oct. 21 are remarkable.From Oct. 13-16, seismic activity at the fissure and NE of Askja all but stopped and shifted to the West of Bardarbunga with vigor (at least 17 quakes up to M2.8 and 0-4 km). Overall seismic activity dropped, particularly in areas away from the West of Bard area. Then sometime on Oct 18, probably related to the Mag 5.4 quake, it seems that seismic activity returned to the fissure and Askja, abandoning West of Bard. The past 48 hours (Oct. 19-21) shows seismic activity little different from Oct 3-7, except there is less activity in the Reykj Peninsula, Tjornes Fracture zone and offshore.
It was like about Oct. 14 there was a blockage of flow from the Bardarbunga magma chamber to the fissure. West of Bardarbunga became a safety valve. Then on Oct. 18 the blockage was reduced allowing increased flow of magma back to the fissure and Askja area. There was no reported reduction in eruptive flow at the fissure during this period and the webcams were blank, presumably weathered in.
A good article at volcanocafe from two weeks ago.
Link to a page of graphics for the total history of seismic events. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/
Total subsidence of the crater is 16 meters. It has been remarkably linear throughout the fissure eruption.
Past nine 48 hour seismic event summaries in the Bardarbunga area:
Notes:
(d) a major increase in activity NE of Askja. At least 26 in a vertical pipe on 3DBulge, M3.0, M2.4, M2.4
(e) 5 sub Mag 2 quakes offshore, but are also counted in the Tiornes area.
(f) New line added to the table.: Askja area is covered by the Myvatn map.There are six quakes at the southern end of the island in what is covered by the Myrdalsjokull Map, the name of another volcano covered by ice. Today the six are all sub M1.0, but they are growing more frequent and growing in magnitude.
These past 48 hours are a remarkable reinvigoration of the fissure and Askja seismic activity. The 3DBulge view shows the biggest quakes at Askja in at least 3 weeks, maybe a month.
The webcams are black again, probably low clouds.
Not much in the news. Eruption still going strong.
Twitter picture:https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Bardarbunga&src=tyah
P.S. High activity at the crater and NE of Askja in the past two hours.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myvatn/
At least 5 quakes between M1.8 – M2.8 in the pipe NE of Askja. from 5 to 9 km. We’ve gone many days without even one bigger than M1.5.
The crater is also active with a M4.0, M3.8, M3.5 in the past two hours.
Fifty seven quakes Mag 3.5 or higher in the past 48 hours!
http://en.vedur.is/photos/jarvatj_rit/141024_1525.png
New Bardarbunga seismic summaries moved to:
Oct. 25 Bardarbunga Volcano sits on a …